
Capital Markets Day 2023
Vækerø, Norway November 29, 2023
Cautionary note

Certain statements included in this announcement contain forward-looking information, including, without limitation, information relating to (a) forecasts, projections and estimates, (b) statements of Hydro management concerning plans, objectives and strategies, such as planned expansions, investments, divestments, curtailments or other projects, (c) targeted production volumes and costs, capacities or rates, start-up costs, cost reductions and profit objectives, (d) various expectations about future developments in Hydro's markets, particularly prices, supply and demand and competition, (e) results of operations, (f) margins, (g) growth rates, (h) risk management, and (i) qualified statements such as "expected", "scheduled", "targeted", "planned", "proposed", "intended" or similar.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, these forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions and forecasts that, by their nature, involve risk and uncertainty. Various factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected in a forward-looking statement or affect the extent to which a particular projection is realized. Factors that could cause these differences include, but are not limited to: our continued ability to reposition and restructure our upstream and downstream businesses; changes in availability and cost of energy and raw materials; global supply and demand for aluminium and aluminium products; world economic growth, including rates of inflation and industrial production; changes in the relative value of currencies and the value of commodity contracts; trends in Hydro's key markets and competition; and legislative, regulatory and political factors.
No assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Hydro disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Agenda, November 29
All times CET
- 09:00-09:05 Welcome
- 09:00-09:50 Pioneering the green aluminium transition, powered by renewable energy
- 09:50-10:10 Hydro going to market
- 10:10-10:40 Q&A and break
- 10:40-12:00 Business area presentations
- 12:00-13:00 Q&A and lunch
- 13:00-13:40 Strengthened resilience and greener value creation
13:40-14:00 Q&A
14:15-15:00 Sustainability roundtable
15:15-16:00 Finance roundtable


Pioneering the green aluminium transition, powered by renewable energy
Capital Markets Day 2023 Hilde Merete Aasheim President and Chief Executive Officer

Health and safety #1 priority
TRI1) per million hours worked 12 months rolling average
HRI2) per million hours worked 12 months rolling average

1) Total Recordable Injuries includes own employees and contractors 2) High Risk Incidents included own employees and contractors 3) Average over period
2020: Set out a forceful agenda towards 2025


1 Strengthen position in low-carbon aluminium 2 Grow in new energy



Develop a more robust, higher earnings and more sustainable company
Improvement program NOK billion

Improved earnings
EBITDA margin podium positions in all business areas compared to our peers
Improved portfolio
EBITDA margin Reducing risks and freeing up cash towards areas with higher profitability
compared to our peers Improved sustainability
Low-carbon aluminium getting a lot of traction, on track to decarbonize portfolio
Improved earnings EBITDA margin podium positions in all business areas compared to our peers
Improved portfolio
EBITDA margin Reducing risks and freeing up cash towards areas with higher profitability
podium positions in all business areas
compared to our peers Improved sustainability
Low-carbon aluminium getting a lot of traction, on track to decarbonize portfolio
Podium positions in all business areas

1) Source: CRU, global cost curves. 2) Hydro position: 50% Qatalum, 20% Alouette, 12.4% Tomago, 100% Albras, Slovalco and Norwegian smelters. 3) Excluding Aluminium Metal repurchase / internal buy-back contract, 2023 Q3 YTD annualized
Reallocating capital
2021

Sale of rolling business
2023

Sell down at Alunorte
Deliver on strategic priorities



Grow in Hydro Rein capital light

Improved earnings
EBITDA margin podium positions in all business areas compared to our peers
Improved portfolio
EBITDA margin Reducing risks and freeing up cash towards areas with higher profitability
podium positions in all business areas

compared to our peers Improved sustainability
Low-carbon aluminium getting a lot of traction, on track to decarbonize portfolio


On track to achieve 10% GHG emissions reduction by 2025

Pursuing HalZero& CCS For new capacity and existing smelters

Deliver on our 1:1 rehabilitation target

On track to eliminate landfilling of recoverable waste by 2040

Social
Just transition framework implemented in 2023
Improved earnings
EBITDA margin podium positions in all business areas compared to our peers
Improved portfolio
EBITDA margin Reducing risks and freeing up cash towards areas with higher profitability
podium positions in all business areas
compared to our peers Improved sustainability
Low-carbon aluminium getting a lot of traction, on track to decarbonize portfolio

Progressing on education goal targeting 500,000 people YTD 180,000 by 2030

2025: Strategic resilience in a world in transition
Improved earnings
EBITDA margin podium positions in all business areas compared to our peers
Improved portfolio
Reducing risks and freeing up cash towards areas with higher profitability
Improved sustainability
Low-carbon aluminium getting a lot of traction, on track to decarbonize portfolio
Simplified operating cash flow development


- Greener volumes and premiums
- More robust earnings portfolio in Extrusions
- Higher share of earnings from recycling
Stock price index (incl. dividend) / TSR1)

1) TSR calculated including reinvesting dividends and Hydro and all peers shown in same currency (USD). 2) Peer group includes Nalco, Rusal, Alcoa, Century Aluminium, Hindalco, Chalco, Grupa Kety, Constellium, Kaiser, ProfilGruppen, Tredegar Corporation. Source: Refinitiv Workspace
The world around us has changed since 2020

Megatrends of geopolitical tensions and sustainability converge, driving new risks and opportunities

The future of aluminium in the green transition


Aluminium a key enabler for the green transition
Renewable energy is at the core of green transition
Hydropower Solar power
Wind power

Greener is more than lowcarbon

Hydro has a unique position to succeed in this new reality
118 years of industrial experience, solving global challenges through innovation, technological advances and strong commercial mindset
- Market leading position in low-carbon aluminium with a concrete roadmap towards zero
- Unique position with captive renewable energy resources and competence
- Low and robust cost position and strong track record on shareholder value creation
- Preferred supplier and sustainability partner on the way to zero, integrated value chain enables traceability "under one roof"
- Strong positions within the main markets in the EU and North America
Shifting gear to capture opportunities in a new reality

Key steps for Hydro to lead the green aluminium transition towards 2030

Step up growth investments in Recycling and Extrusions to take lead in the market opportunities emerging from the green transition

Step up ambitions within renewable power generation

Execute on ambitious decarbonization and technology road map and step up to contribute to nature positive and a just transition

Shape the market for greener aluminium in partnership with customers
Step up growth investments in Extrusions
1 2 3 4

• Increase market share in high-growth, noncommoditized segments leveraging innovation and solution offerings

• Develop and grow capacity and capabilities through investments in new presses, fabrication, value added services and recycling

• Commercial opportunities from sustainability, through segmentation and greener offerings

• Increase digitalization and standardization to drive procurement excellence and reduce energy consumption

LTM Q3 2023 1.5 2025 target1) (nominal) 2.0-4.0 2030 target 6.5 8.0 10.0-12.0 25% 20% 15% 40% Underlying market recovery & growth EBS & Procurement Commercial Growth uplift
Extrusions EBITDA
NOK billion (real 2023)
1) Target 2025 in nominal terms as communicated in 2021. Range target for 2030 in real terms
16
Step up growth investments in Recycling


Strengthen scrap sorting capabilities; secure feedstock

Expand global asset base across the value chain

Diversify product portfolio, develop innovative solutions

Shape market for recycled products in partnership with customers


1) Range based on capex. High-range include ~70% of further potential capex given market and M&A. 17
Step up our ambitions and efforts in renewable power generation
1 2 3 4
Secure access to renewable power through hydropower system upgrades and expansions

- Commercial opportunities from sustainability, through segmentation and greener offerings • Grow and upgrade existing hydropower plants to capture peak prices, increasing value of flexibility
- Increase digitalization and standardization to drive procurement and reduce energy consumption • Expand market operations and commercial ambitions based on hydropower reservoir capacity, balancing power from wind and solar and commercial positions
Hydro Rein to deliver onshore wind and solar projects, main focus in the Nordics and Europe

- Pursue profitable projects through JV owned by Hydro and Macquarie Asset Management
- Current portfolio1) add 2.4 TWh to Rein's captive power and 5.3 TWh long term PPAs to Hydro
- Sustainable and attractive riskadjusted returns of eIRR 10-20%
EBITDA 2030 Hydro Energy Classic and Hydro Rein NOK billion2)

Execute on ambitious decarbonization and technology road map, step up to contribute to nature positive and a just transition
1 2 3 4

Forcefully deliver on net-zero roadmap, decarbonizing our value chain from mine-to-components

Contribute to a nature positive future through initiatives on biodiversity, emissions reduction and supply chain management

Improve lives and livelihoods wherever we operate by supporting a just transition
Hydro maintains 2030 climate target, despite portfolio changes

1 2 3 4

Hydro reduces total exposure to GHG emissions1) by 47% from 2018 to 2030

Hydro maintains 30% target by 2030, despite portfolio changes

Hydro's ambitions and ability to deliver low-carbon or near zero aluminium remains unchanged New

Contribute to a nature positive future through initiatives on biodiversity, waste handling and land-use

1 2 3 4

- No Net Loss of biodiversity for our bauxite mine, from a 2020 baseline
- Strengthening onsite mitigation and rehabilitation
- Investing in conservation and restoration offsets
No Net Loss Ambition for Paragominas Partnerships for Nature Positive Outcomes Supply chain emissions
- Develop opportunities for positive nature impacts beyond delivering NNL outcome for mine
- Partnership with Imazon and IPAM
- Creating value for nature and society where we operate

- Establish inventories and baselines for material pollutants linked to Hydro's supply chain by end of 2024
- World Economic Forum's Alliance for Clean Air
Improving lives and livelihoods wherever we operate by supporting a just transition

Just transition framework

Respect and promote human rights

Support positive local

development Invest in education Responsible supply chain
1 2 3 4 Shape market for greener aluminium, in partnership with customers
Utilize Hydro's combined strengths as a fully integrated company from mine to metal
Partner with strategic customers to grow market for greener aluminium
Partner with Original Equipment Manufacturers to champion joint decarbonization targets

Hydro is pioneering the green aluminium transition
Greener earnings uplift potential 2030 NOK 2 billion1)

Greener product capability from total aluminium portfolio1) Million tonnes capacity potential

24 1) Based on 2030 EU ETS cost and relative CO2 reduction vs Hydro REDUXA 4.0 at current industry traded upcharge. Hydro REDUXA and CIRCAL potential based on estimated certification capacity. Primary capacity based on equity share renewable power. Hydro CIRCAL products have post-consumer scrap content > 75%
Strategic direction – business area implications


- Execute on 2030 decarbonization targets and position as sustainability leader
- Develop low-carbon offering
- Strengthen profitability through podium position and optimized capex

- Pursue profitable captive hydropower growth options
- Hydro Rein JV with Macquarie enables further development of renewable power production
- Batteries to focus on successful execution in current investments
- Hydro Havrand to focus on decarbonization opportunities within Hydro's operations

- Step up growth and be an industry leader within recycling
- Partner with customers to shape markets for low-carbon aluminium
- Deliver on roadmap to net-zero with technology leadership

- Step up growth investments aiming to increase market share in attractive, high-growth segments
- Utilize market leader position to shape the markets for greener aluminium and partner with customers on new greener solutions

Hydro 2030:
Pioneering the green aluminium transition, powered by renewable energy
Key priorities towards 2030
1
3
Step up growth investments in Recycling and Extrusions to take lead in the market opportunities emerging from the green transition
Execute on ambitious decarbonization and technology road map and step up to contribute to nature positive and a just transition

Step up ambitions within renewable power generation

Shape the market for greener aluminium in partnership with customers

Hydro going to market
Trond Olaf Christophersen
Executive Vice President, Corporate Development
Largely balanced markets towards 2030
Healthy demand outlook driven by transport and electrical

Aluminium is a key enabler for the entire green transition

2030 energy transition will require 15-22 million tonnes aluminium, increasing to 25-42 million tonnes by 2050cc

1) Additional demand related to green transition technologies in STEPS scenario. Sources: 2) Ducker 3) Hydro analysis 4) BNEF 5) CRU 6) IEA
Source: IEA, Ducker, analysis based on EU27+UK 30
Aluminium per car
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
EV transition driving strong growth in aluminium demand
Demand, million tonnes
Key choices on component design and material selection are being matured now
Aluminium content per car growing Aluminium in car, kg
EVs

While EV share of sales is growing exponentially
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Average aluminium content per car will grow from 205 kg/car in 2022 to 256 kg/car in 2030
Demand for aluminium from European and American automotive industry to increase by 2.9 million tonnes from 2022-2030

EVs are not built the same way as internal combustion engines cars
Radical change in design leading to changing dynamics for aluminium usage
Aluminium demand from extrusions driven by switch to EVs Tonnes ('000)


Solar market provides strong growth potential for aluminium
Regional growth potential within aluminium mounting systems

Aluminium is an attractive substitute for copper
Especially in segments with high growth from green transition

Key substitution facts

Transition to EVs enables substitution opportunities

EVs contain considerably more copper than combustion engines

Price, Weight, Emissions
60-80kg
4x
Copper content in electric vehicles
Copper content compared to typical combustion engine vehicle
Application A
Replacing complex copper cabling with approx. 3kg of aluminium solution
Potential additional global demand in 2030 100kt
Application B
Replacing flexible copper cabling with approx. 5 kg of aluminium solution
Potential additional global demand in 2030 180kt
Green transition drives substantial expansion of electricity grids
Average annual demand for aluminium by 2040 in stated policies scenario Million tonnes

Reaching 1.5 degree scenario requires adding or refurbishing 80 million kms of grids by 2040 International Energy Agency 2023, Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions

From cutting tailpipe emissions to cutting embedded emissions

83%
Of the embedded emissions from aluminium, steel and polymer
+40%
Emissions from materials, including batteries, increase 40% from ICE to EV1)
Aluminium smelter perspective: 18 million mt produced globally with CO2 footprint below 4 kgCO2 /kg

Aluminium smelter emissions curve 2023
Tonnes CO2e per tonne Aluminium

Full value chain perspective: 7 million mt of primary production with embedded emissions below 4.0 kgCO2 /kg aluminium
Cradle-to-gate emissions curve 2023 Tonnes CO2e per tonne Aluminium

The green transition represents a massive shift for the aluminium industry


39
Many vying to take sustainable aluminium leading positions
Only Hydro with integrated advantage

Source: company annual and CMD reports
Positioning Hydro to pioneer the green aluminium transition
Earnings uplift potential 2030 of NOK 2 billion1)

Growing recycling capabilities
<2.3t/t
100%
1) Based on 2030 EU ETS cost and relative CO2 reduction vs Hydro REDUXA 4.0 at current industry traded upcharge. Hydro REDUXA and CIRCAL potential based on estimated certification capacity. Primary capacity based on equity share renewable power. Hydro CIRCAL products have post-consumer scrap content > 75%
The unique Hydro offering



Step up growth in Extrusions
Paul Warton Executive Vice President, Hydro Extrusions
Hydro Extrusions delivering strong EBITDA uplift through targeting high-growth, advanced segments

44 1) Heat, ventilation, air conditioners & refrigerators 2) HE EBITDA adjusted for capitalization of dies to make comparable to peers
Industry trends towards 2030 are favorable for Hydro Extrusions, driven by customer needs and segment growth

Opportunity to leverage Hydro Extrusions' strengths increases as target segments develop

- As industries and applications mature, customers demand more developed solutions
- Value added offerings
- New, R&D driven solutions
- Customers will partner with suppliers providing new and advanced solutions, e.g., low-carbon, high R/C content, sustainably produced solutions
Customer needs Segment growth HE capabilities

- More growth expected in value added product and solutions area rather than "commodities"
- Attractive segments with 5-10% annual growth
- Key growth segments include Automotive / Emobility and solar / Renewables / Big & Wide Rail

- Strong innovative capacity to provide highquality advanced solutions
- Developed R&D position that can be further enhanced
- Head start vs competition in sustainability area
- Size, geographical coverage and advanced capabilities to be relevant in differentiated segments
Hydro Extrusions will leverage opportunities from greener transition to strengthen market positions

Secular growth drivers in key segments

HE positioning and growth ambitions
- Strong global positions, long term relationships with major automotive OEMs
- Proven capabilities, innovation and sustainability as key competitive levers
- Increase share of direct OEM supply and long-term contracts
- Investment projects under execution globally
- HE with strong value offering, including surface treatment and low-carbon aluminium solutions
- Solar mounting systems fit well on existing 7-9 inch presses
- Projects in pipeline to increase capacity
- HVAC&R customers with production in North America and China
- Customer projects with proven solutions for replacing copper with aluminium
- Grow capacity and increase customer solutions
Critical growth projects under execution, maturing projects to enable profitable growth

Project capacity growth since 2021
Further strengthening flagship plants in the portfolio, leveraging key trends
- Sustainable products with low-carbon footprint
- Recyclability and keeping materials "in the loop"
Key trends Project under execution

Significant automotive growth business last quarters


Reducing own emissions and helping customers improve their products' sustainability towards 2030


Confirm and improve with labels and certifications
Reducing own emissions and helping customers improve their products' sustainability towards 2030

Pilot project towards net-zero Greener Sweden

Spanish Fork plant fully solar powered Renewables in the U.S.

Greener sourcing Greener production Greener products
Solar-powered press in Poland PV-powered press

World's first batch produced in Spain Hydrogen-fueled recycling

First project with Hydro CIRCAL 100R Shaping the market

Partnering with customers and others Greener partnerships

Customers from all industries partnering with Hydro Extrusions to make greener products


Partnering to cut carbon emissions from its value chain in half by 2030

Cleanest Dirt Bike Ever project to remove emissions from production by 2025

Solar panel systems made from low-carbon aluminium extrusions

Light and flat-packed BOA conference tables made with Hydro CIRCAL
Digitalization, AI and automation
Key levers to improve performance and profitability
AMR = Automatic Meter Reading

= Sensors
AMR = Sensors with real-time tracking of energy, water, gas consumption and vibration at machines in plants
Value contribution
- Using AI / machine learning / dash-boards to identify "irregularities"
- Benchmark between machines and products to drive improvements & reduce waste / consumption
- Peak-shaving / improved production planning
- Preventive maintenance through vibration / consumption patterns
- Traceability through connected systems
Automation
- PT Taicang Fabrication reducing 95 FTEs through Automation & EBS1) (>20% of work-force)
- Ergonometric, quality, safety and finance
- Automatic quality controls enable delivering millions of parts without quality issues


HE increasing profitability towards 2030 through uplift from growth projects and underlying improvements

Growing market share in dedicated segments, further operational and commercial improvements

HE EBITDA ambitions NOK billion (real 2023)

1) Heat, ventilation, air conditioners & refrigerators
2) Target of 8 BNOK in 2025 in nominal terms as communicated in 2021. Range target 2030 in real terms

Hydro Extrusions 2030 strategic direction


- Increased digitalization throughout value-chain
- Standardization will generate value through the value-chain from understanding profit to driving procurement and reducing energy consumption

Step up growth in Recycling
Eivind Kallevik
Executive Vice President, Hydro Aluminium Metal
2025 recycling targets achieved with 2023 year-end installed capacity
Recent recycling projects with production and post-consumer scrap capacity Tonnes ('000)

Post Consumer Scrap
Consumption and targeted capacity, tonnes ('000)

Megatrends support recycling agenda
Increasing focus on circular economy from both consumers and regulators

- Process design closed loops
- Product design lower material use
- Reuse and refurbish (second life)
Waste to value

- Reduce waste generation
- Reuse and upcycle waste streams to products

- Capture and recycle products at end-of-life
- Improve scrap sorting
- Increase recycling efficiency
- Technology advancement

- End-of-life Directive
- EU waste shipment regulation
- Critical raw materials act
- CO2 -regulations
Post-consumer scrap generation is increasing
But multiple hurdles exist for its utilization

Key trends in aluminium recycling
- Growth in recycling and billet capacity pressuring margins on "clean" scrap feedstock
- Large export volumes from Europe and North America to Asia
- Regulatory changes and protectionism measures affecting future scrap market
- Increasing generation and more interest in lower-grade scrap, but multiple challenges:
- o Supply chain complexity
- o Contamination
- o Collection
- o Sorting limitations
- o Logistics

Mixed scrap types require sorting capabilities and ability to convert to various products

Securing access to the right scrap – key success factor

Diversifying and high-grading recycling product portfolio across markets and geographies

Successfully completed organic and inorganic projects in 2023 include:

Introducing Hydro CIRCAL, increasing EI market share in the US
- 40kt of PCS per year enabling delivery of similar volumes of Hydro CIRCAL® to the North American market
- Lowest carbon extrusion ingot offering in North America

State-of-the art HyForge line in Rackwitz, Germany
Diversifying portfolio and growing high-margin HyForge capacity
- Ramping-up the HyForge line in Rackwitz Germany
- Forging stock geared towards the automotive industry

Entering the recycled FA market with Alumetal acquisition
- Advanced sorting capabilities and capacity
- Opportunity to utilize more scrap grades • Identified synergies of 10-15 MEUR by 2027

JV Hydro & Padnos, USA
Securing access to scrap, industrializing HySort technology in the US
- Invested 4MUSD in a 50:50 JV with scrap-yard operator Padnos in MI, US
- Installing HySort equipment; total capacity ~36 kt p.a.
- Supplying Cassopolis with suitable fractions; marketing the rest externally
Hydro has a proven track record developing recycling capabilities

sorting capacity 1)
+40% PCS use 2019 to 2023


Recycling production by region
+100 kt Sorting capacity 2019 to 2023

Expanding specialty and greener product offerings3)


Lifting profitability through the cycle
AM Recycling indexed EBITDA margin USD/tonne (2008 set at 1)

Stepping up activities across the recycling value chain
Continuing to transform scrap into sustainable solutions for our customers

Selected projects in the pipeline adressing key market trends

SFA products for automotive e.g. gigacastings, electrical engine housing

Specialty casthouse equiped to produce advanced products also for automotive; large CIRCAL capacity

Introducing HyForge for automotive applications in the US
Recycling 2030 ambitions:

850-1,200 kmt PCS capacity

NOK 5-8 billion EBITDA potential

Hydro with competitive advantages in recycling

Full value chain with multiple product outlets
- Large recycling asset base in Europe and North America
- Broad range of products extrusion ingot, sheet ingot, foundry alloys, HyForge, Master alloys
- Ability to utilize and upcycle mixed scrap

Sorting & production technology
- Technical and metallurgical competence
- Production optimization know-how from scrap to product
- Patented HySort technology, in-house R&D
Close customer & supplier relations
- Local presence and market insight in core locations
- Established relationships with scrap suppliers
- Partnerships and close cooperation with customers
- Commercial intelligence and strong value chain positioning

Primary aluminium roadmap to zero
Eivind Kallevik
Executive Vice President, Hydro Aluminium Metal
Widening our scope to reach zero CO2 emissions
Structured approach to reduce emissions throughout primary value chain
CO2e emissions kgCO2 /kgAl


Pursuing optionality to decarbonize casthouses
Important milestones for all initiatives: bio-methane, hydrogen and direct electrification
CO2e emissions kgCO2 /kgAl

Starting industrialization of bio-methane from 2024, stepping up activities in electrification


Electrolysis decarbonization on track – carbon capture Technology shift for existing aluminium smelters
CO2e emissions kgCO2 /kgAl

|
2022 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
CCS – ready cells |
Testing |
Industrial Industrial scale pilot capacity |
|
|
Carbon capture |
Studies |
Testing |
Industrial scale pilot |
Industrial capacity |

- Testing of Verdox technology ongoing at Sunndal
- Installing capture ready cells as part of ongoing relining process
- On track to deliver first CO2 capture in 2024 and industrial scale pilot volumes by 2030

Electrolysis decarbonization on track - HalZero Ground-breaking technology to change the game
CO2e emissions kgCO2 /kgAl

|
2022 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
| HalZero |
Studies |
Testing |
Industrial scale pilot |
Industrial capacity |

- Approval to start construction of new test facility in Porsgrunn - expected to be operational by 2025
- On track for first metal by end 2025 and industrial pilot volumes by 2030

Anode decarbonization
Utilizing bio-materials in anode production triggers potentials for below zero emissions
CO2e emissions kgCO2 /kgAl

Bio-methane and bio-materials in the process
- Fuel switch to bio-methane in anode baking furnace Havila contract
- Substitution to bio-based packing materials
Bio-materials in anodes
- Substitute fossil materials to bio-carbon and bio-binder in anode
- Potential to reduce the CO2 , PAH and S emissions
- Collaboration with external suppliers and research institutions
- Potential below zero CO2 emissions from electrolysis off-gas capture

Logistics decarbonization
Choosing the right solutions leads to reduced emissions. Ambition: 30% reduction by 2030
CO2e emissions kgCO2 /kgAl


What we have done
-
95% of AM volumes now have the major transport leg by sea
- 85% emission reduction on container transport from China to Europe
- Moving volumes from truck to barge, rail and sea
- Introducing biofuel on selected trucking routes
- Supply chain improvements

What we will do
- Developing greener routes
- Exploring opportunities for "green shipping corridors"
- Digitalization and measurement to improve incentive structures and transparency

Hydro has a unique value proposition in aluminium
Going to market with a combined offering of primary and recycled aluminium with a full product spectrum and with tailor-made alloys is unique to AM

Track record gives solid foundation for new partnerships

Exploring new arenas for collaboration and co-development with existing partners while pursuing new partnerships
Our approach
Decarbonization of customer footprint through purchase of low-carbon products
Collaboration on sustainability and comarketing
Exploring closed-loop concepts and new design options
Shaping next generation products


CO2e emissions kgCO2 /kgAl

Changing the aluminium game with

transparent and certified from mine to metal
73

Hydro Bauxite & Alumina Lifting profitability, in a sustainable way
John Thuestad
Executive Vice President, Hydro Bauxite & Alumina
B&A is an important enabler for low-carbon aluminium

Controlling the top of the value chain

Alumina
Bauxite
Primary aluminium
Energy
Extrusion
We can produce among the lowest carbon aluminum in the world

Guaranteeing an integrated supply chain that follows world class ESG practices
Enabling greener premiums for our primary aluminium and extrusion products


Hydro has the highest quality, lowest carbon and most sustainable Alumina in the world allowing us to demand a greener premium from our top customers
In 2025 B&A will deliver:
-
-
-
- Best Practice Tailings Management
-
- Best Practice Residue Management
-
- Best Practice Reforestation
-
- Best Practice Social Investment
-
- Best Practice Community Engagement
- = Global EPD + greener premium
Alunorte reducing carbon 70% by 2030
CO2 e emissions kgCO2 /kgAl


- Already 1st Quartile emissions in 2023
- Fuel Switch and three el-boilers will move Alunorte to one of the lowest smelter grade Alumina available (project being executed)
- Further two el-boilers will remove the need to use coal by 2027
- An additional five el-boilers will give us the ability to produce steam without emissions


Contribute to nature positive


- Best practice reforestation program in Paragominas, exceeding 1-to-1 replanting on a strict a three-year cycle:
- Year 1 = Deforestation
- Year 2 = Mining
- Year 3 = Reforestation
- Working together with multiple universities and researches
- Expanding the program and start rehabilitation outside of our mine, contributing towards Nature Positive

Reforestation Residue management
- Hydro is current best practice in Residue management averaging 0.7T of Residue per T of alumina
- Entered into an agreement with Wave Aluminium – creating the potential to extract up to 1 million tons of carbon free pig iron from residue each year
- The first phase of the treatment plant will go live in 2024 and will be capable of processing 50,000T of Residue
Investing in the community is our license to operate


Social Infrastructure
- Construction of 9 Terpaz community centers (3 already built) targets security, income generation and access to basic services to 1,500 people per day
- Construction of a Technical School with the capacity to educate 1,200 students per year

Community Projects
- Investment in community-based projects benefitted 80 thousand people since 2018
- 60 thousand people with access to education
- 1,400 family farmers with access to technical support

Stakeholder Engagement
- Transparency, dialogue and volunteer work are performed by a dedicated team
- 178 community leaders are involved in a dialogue forum called Sustainable Barcarena Initiative
- 500 volunteers worked to benefit 14 thousand people and 70 local organizations
Focus on driving profitability in a sustainable way


Industry frontrunner with robust operations

B&A have developed a more robust operation, but current market environment is challenging
- Nameplate production at Alunorte/Paragominas for the last 3 years
- Greatly improved asset integrity leading to the first award of ISO550001 to a refinery and to a bauxite mine
- Complete rebuild of the water management systems to reflect the changing climate/rainfall levels
- Successful deployment of the press filters
- Development and deployment of tailings dry backfill
- Rebuilt key relationships both in the government and local communities
- Rebalancing alumina portfolio (Glencore deal) to reflect internal Alumina needs, returning cash to Hydro
- All while delivering some of the highest quality alumina in the world
Improved operations Competitive cost position

Roadmap to profitability in market scenario

1) CRU 2023 cost curve. 2) Cash flow calculated as EBITDA + tax + long-term sustaining CAPEX. Assumptions and sources behind the scenarios can be found in Additional information. 3) Sources: External scenario is based on CRU price and premium assumptions and S&P Global FX assumptions, with adjustments as specified in the footnotes

Energy at the core of green transition
Arvid Moss
Executive Vice President, Hydro Energy
Pioneering the green aluminium transition, powered by renewable energy

1) Based on equity-adjusted 2022 values for Norsk Hydro's bauxite mines, alumina refineries, smelters, remelters and extrusion plants. 82
2) Only projects in operation and under construction or announced. 3) Only pilot projects
Natural gas
Geopolitics driving energy transition, green value chains and friendshoring of critical resources


Combined ambitions in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany and UK1) GW


83 Illustration: picture alliance / Zoonar | gd ae. IEA: World Energy Investments 2023 report. 1) Installed capacity in 2020
Norwegian power market surplus in question
Public opposition to onshore wind parks limiting the effect of attractive renewable resources
Market uncertainty prevails
- Power market balance weakening (short-med term)
- Demand from electrification and new industries outpaces supply in the short end
- Unfavorable resource rent taxation (onshore wind)
- Lack of certainty regarding timing of new offshore wind areas
Solution space
• Attractive renewable resources, especially onshore wind power in Norway and Sweden
V
- Cheaper firming costs through flexible hydropower in Norway
- Acceptable solutions locally, land use and value creation


Energy: Strong production platform, market performance and growth opportunities

Resource spend Norwegian hydropower players 2021 NOK per MWh

Industry leader on cost and operational performance
Strong platform for value creation
- EBITDA "platform" from operations
- 8 TWh on long term contracts (predictable prices) + 2 TWh (average) net long spot volume in merchant market
- App. NOK 3.5 billion LTM adjusted with normal production and no area price gain1)
- Commercial contribution of app. NOK 400 million (average last years) comes in addition
- Maturing portfolio growth options; emphasis on flexible production and selected geographies
Hydro Rein's journey: Fast-tracking portfolio development

2) Total portfolio within JV scope, including Irupé.
3) As of August 2023; including new contracted employees not yet started
87
Current portfolio adds 2.4 TWh to REIN's captive power1)
1.7 GW gross, approximately USD1.8 billion gross
Renewable energy
1) Projects in construction and secured. 2) Total portfolio within JV scope, including Irupé. 3) Hydro Rein's ownership before farmdown to offtakers
Gross GW

Projects under construction


Hydro Rein on track to becoming preferred supplier of renewable energy solutions to industrials

2026 Targets communicated at Hydro's Capital Markets Day 2022
3 GW Gross portfolio in operation and construction
>500 MW added gross capacity to pipeline on average annually
400-450 MNOK1) Estimated EBITDA contribution from projects in construction
Key numbers1): portfolio under construction – as of Q3 2023
4 BNOK 1.7 GW Gross portfolio in operation and construction ~3 BNOK Estimated pro-rata Equity Capex (net of agreed farm-downs) ~410 MNOK Estimated pro-rata EBITDA2) from projects in construction 1.5 GW Gross capacity added to the pipeline in 2023YTD
2030 vision of continued profitable growth
Sustainable & attractive risk-adjusted returns 10-20% platform eIRR
Balanced portfolio
Between geographies and technologies
Services and capabilities
Covering the full value chain, capturing developer margin
Regional leadership
REIN being one of the leading players in core geographies
Multiple value levers to create attractive returns
Value levers at project and platform level
Optimize capital structure (including refinancing), extend PPA Optimize cost base (capex/opex), improve productivity, extend asset lifetime Cross-sale of services such as construction project management, asset and energy management Key value levers Comments and selected examples Pipeline growth, economies of scale, industrialization & best practice sharing Crystalize value through partial sell-down Base stand alone project equity IRR Total IRR potential at platform level Structuring Operational excellence Hydro Rein Services Farm downs Platform value Hydro Rein with access to several value creation levers at asset level to boost project returns Further, material return potential at Platform Level that is not captured at individual asset level Total return potential REIN JV platform level: 10 - 20% IRR 10-20% Project equity IRR Platform equity IRR
Norwegian power projects remain attractive
Attractive resource base and cost level across technologies prevail
- Cost of selected technologies show that attractive projects can be matured in Norway
- Short/medium term relies on onshore wind and PV, with time to maturity and permitting as key challenges
- Longer term, offshore wind will add significant power volumes to the Norwegian and North Sea system
- Norwegian hydropower adds flexibility at lower cost than alternatives
- Increasing in value
- Lower degree of cannibalization
- Key challenges: Acceptance, timeline and tax uncertainties
Range of LCOE and Nordic system price towards 20301) 2023 EUR per MWh


Project based PPAs still most attractive for sourcing

Hydro Rein a key vehicle
Monthly spot price and future prices in NO2 Nominal EUR per MWh


Increasing value of flexible hydropower
Enabler for renewables at low shaping cost
Sorted hourly power pricesin NO21) 2023 EUR per MWh

Higher value for increasing installed capacity Makes wind and solar in Norway cheaper to firm up

Hydrogen breakthrough
Hydro Havrand: World's first aluminium made with green hydrogen

93

Planned 2024/2025
2023
Empowering the future of green mobility
Progress in the sustainable battery materials portfolio throughout 2023
STRATEGIC TARGETS

PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS

24 % owner share 0.6% owner share
94
Value creation across the energy space going forward
High performance and profitability ambitions: Energy Classic ROACE > 15% Hydro Rein JV platform annual eIRR 10 – 20 % Batteries 3x invested capital, 20% TSR average annually
21
Grow value of our Norwegian portfolio through upgrading of existing hydropower plants. Increase commercial ambitions in market operations
3
Develop Hydro Rein to become the preferred supplier of renewable energy solutions to industrial customers in core markets - and a key enabler for decarbonization of Hydro

Support Hydro across business areas and geographies with fuel switch solutions including green hydrogen
Develop our portfolio of assets delivering more sustainable battery materials, empowering the future of green mobility


CFO Strengthened resilience and greener value creation
Pål Kildemo
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Earnings driven lower by weaker economic growth
Robust capital structure supporting strategic capital allocation

Adjusted net debt (cash)
Net debt (cash)
1) RoaCE figures as reported, where rolling is excluded from 2021.
2) Adjusted EBITDA figures as reported and excludes Rolling
3) Free cash flow defined as net cash provided by operating activities plus net cash used in investing activities less purchases of short-term investments, less process from sales of short-term investments
4) Figures are as reported and excludes Rolling
Return-seeking and growth
Sustaining
Market uncertainty continues into 2024
Revenue and cost drivers (indexed) Petroleum coke FOB USG Caustic soda Gas (Henry Hub) Alumina PAX index NO2 spot price El Billet premium 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-220 1 2 3 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 0 1 2 3 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-220 1 2 3 4 5 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 0 1 2 3 4 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22
Q4-22
Q4-22
Q1-23
Q2-23
Q3-23
Q4-22
Q1-23
Q2-23
Q3-23
Q1-23
Q2-23
Q3-23
AEBITDA sensitivity 2024 NOK billion

Source: Thomson Reuters, PACE, IHS Markit, Platts, ANP, CRU, Nord Pool Indication of current market prices
Handling short-term volatility
Utilizing portfolio flexibility, margin management, freeing up cash, and securing downside
VAP demand development in Europe, YoY

Short-term and medium-term mitigation
Aluminium Metal
- Electrolysis production curtailed by ~130kt (Norwegian smelters)
- Volumes shifted between product segments
- Utilizing short-term flexibility in recyclers
Extrusions
- Strong margin management
- Shifting volumes between product segments
- Continuous adaption of extrusion capacity to demand through reduced number of shifts
- Manning reductions in Europe to manage cost in challenging market
- Utilizing short-term flexibility in recyclers
Continued efforts to reduce working capital
• Year to date cash release of more than NOK 4 billion
Hedging program securing margins in challenging market
- Implemented hedges for most of the exposure to coal, electricity and gas for 2024 in B&A.
- 2024 gas and power hedges in place for 50% of exposure in both Metal Markets and Extrusions
- Integrated margin hedge in place for 2024 and 2025
- USD/BRL hedges in place for Alunorte and Albras
Integrated margin hedging strengthens low-cycle earnings
Strategic hedging status1) NOK Billion

1) Mark to Market as of October 31, 2023
The hedges are entered in the following FX: NOK (51% of total hedged volume), USD (37%) and EUR (12%) USD/NOK locked FX rate: 2023: 8.5; 2024:9.49; 2025: 10.18
- Derivative positions locked in at historical strong margins
- Negative realised values through a strong market, and positive market value going into a softer market
- Hedged raw materials offset part of cost increase
Hedged volumes and Integrated Margin2)

Hedged aluminium volumes Hedged USDNOK volumes and prices


2) Forward prices as of November 10, 2023. Spot prices per October 31, 2023
Our financial framework guides the short and long-term

Solid framework for lifting returns and cash flow and managing uncertainty

1) Hydro group external scenario 2030 ARoaCE based on CRU price and premium assumptions and S&P Global FX assumptions, with adjustments as specified in the footnotes 2) 31% repurchased as of 24th of November
Extended improvement ambitions
Strengthening future competitiveness and positioning with additional potential from digitalization, greener premiums and commercial improvements in Energy

Commercial initiatives

Ambition increased in 2025 and 2027, and extended with

Note: NOK 1.5 billion in annual average CAPEX to meet remaining improvement and commercial ambitions.

Extending the improvement ambitions to 2030

Targeting NOK 14.0 billion in accumulated improvements and NOK 6.1 billion in commercial ambitions by 2030

Significant thematic improvements across organization

NOK 6.8 billion improvements through global business services, procurement and digitalization
Global Business Services NOK billion

Procurement NOK billion

- NOK 360 million delivered since 2019, NOK 300 million targeted until 2030
- World class staff costs levels, driven by geographic footprint, scale, analytics and automation
- NOK 400 million group procurement program launched in 2019
- Delivered NOK 1.6 billion, and targeting additional potential of NOK 1.5 billion
Digitalization NOK billion

- Overall digital potential of > NOK 3 billion, where 60-70% is covered by existing improvement program
- Ambition to deliver NOK 1 billion in digital improvements on top of existing improvement program by 2030
Targeting NOK 2 billion Net Operating Capital release 2024

Structural changes and market effects driving Net Operating Capital increase historically NOK 17 billion NOC increase since Q4-20
- Weakening reporting currency (NOK) (all BAs)
- Higher sales- and raw material prices (all BAs)
- Introduction of CO2 compensation scheme (AM)
- Portfolio changes (AM, HE)
- Strategic supply chain changes (AM)
- M&A and growth
- Transitional inefficiencies due to restructuring and market volatility (AM, HE)

Capital allocated according to strategic modes
Strategic modes reflect global megatrends and high-return opportunities
Safe, compliant and efficient operations The Hydro Way |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Businesses |
Bauxite & Alumina |
Aluminium Metal |
Recycling |
Energy |
Extrusions |
|
|
| Strategic mode |
Sustain and improve |
Sustain and improve |
Growth |
Selective growth |
Growth |
|
|
| Towards 2030 |
Reduce risk, improve sustainability footprint, improve cost position |
Robustness and greener, increase product flexibility, improve cost position |
Substantial shift in conversion of post consumer scrap |
Growth in renewables and batteries |
Growth with new capacity and capabilities |
|
|
Underlying 2024 capex in line with last year's guidance
Added flexibility depending market development

Sustaining capex development NOK Billion

1) 24-26 average guiding
Greener investments drive value creation
Hydro's largest prioritized investment areas combine sustainability and profitability

Strong profitability in strategic growth areas
Indicative profitability in current return-seeking and growth portfolio

Recycling
- Increase proportion of post consumer scrap (PCS), lowering metal cost
- Improved economies of scale in brownfield expansions
- Sorting technology and equipment standardization
Extrusions
- New presses with improved capabilities and commercial value, capturing market share
- Press replacements with significant cost reductions and increased productivity
- Focus on high growth segments including automotive, systems business and commercial transportation
Decarbonization
- Alunorte Fuel switch project (IRR 20+%) and electrical boilers
- Carbon capture technology pilots in mid-term, industrial scale pilot volumes by 2030
- HalZero as technology pilots in mid-term, industrial scale pilot volumes by 2030
Batteries
- Focused strategy within sustainable battery materials, leveraging Hydro capabilities
- Establish positions in attractive growth segments in core markets
- Core investments: Hydrovolt (recycling) and Vianode (anode material)
Press replacements giving new capabilities and cost savings
Indicative profitability in current return-seeking and growth portfolio


- New and improved technical capabilities to serve new segments at higher prices
- High energy efficiency, lower cost per kilo & higher EBITDA per ton
Capital allocation increases earnings resilience

Extrusion and recycling margins, greener premiums growing as share of total earnings

Hydro profitability growth roadmap
Main drivers – improvement efforts, growth and market development

1) Cash flow calculated as EBITDA + tax + long-term sustaining CAPEX + other (lease payments, interest expenses) Assumptions and sources behind the scenarios can be found in Additional information Sources: External scenario is based on CRU price and premium assumptions and S&P Global FX assumptions, with adjustments as specified in the footnotes
Bauxite & Alumina profitability growth roadmap
Main drivers – fuel switch, commercial differentiation and market development

1) Cash flow calculated as EBITDA + tax + long-term sustaining CAPEX
Assumptions and sources behind the scenarios can be found in Additional information
Sources: External scenario is based on CRU price and premium assumptions and S&P Global FX assumptions, with adjustments as specified in the footnotes
Aluminium Metal and Metal Markets profitability growth roadmap
Main drivers – improvement efforts, commercial differentiation and market development

1) Cash flow calculated as EBITDA + tax + long-term sustaining CAPEX
Assumptions and sources behind the scenarios can be found in Additional information
Sources: External scenario is based on CRU price and premium assumptions and S&P Global FX assumptions, with adjustments as specified in the footnotes
Extrusions profitability growth roadmap
Main drivers – improvement program and commercial ambition

1) Cash flow calculated as EBITDA + tax + long-term sustaining CAPEX Assumptions and sources behind the scenarios can be found in Additional information
Energy profitability growth roadmap

Main drivers – Net spot sales volume and market development

Note: Classic excluding growth from new energy areas
1) Cash flow calculated as EBITDA + tax + long-term sustaining CAPEX
2) EBITDA from assets. S&GA at JV-level not included
Assumptions and sources behind the scenarios can be found in Additional information
Ambition for shareholder distribution
- Final proposal for distribution at Q4 reporting in February 2024
- Pay out depending on year-end financials
- Aiming at 50-60% of adjusted net income for 2023
- A combination of ordinary dividends and share buyback if supportive financials
- Proposal conditional upon Annual General Meeting approval
- Capital structure policy and targets stating an adjusted net debt target over the cycle around NOK 25 billion, with proposed shareholder cash distribution added to cash position at year-end
- Share buybacks ongoing, approximately 31% of the program repurchased as of 24th of November 2023

Hydro's Dividend Policy
- Pay out minimum 50 percent of adjusted net income as ordinary dividend over the cycle
- The dividend policy has a floor of NOK 1.25 per share
- Share buybacks or extraordinary dividends will supplement dividends during periods of strong financials, due consideration being given to the commodity cycle and capital requirements for future growth
- The pay out should reflect Hydro's aim to give its shareholders competitive returns, benchmarked against alternative investments in comparable companies

2) Peer group includes (in alphabetical order): Upstream: Alcoa, Century, Chalco, Hindalco, Rusal Downstream:
Amag, Arconic, Constellium, Kaiser
3) Distributed share of underlying net income including share buy-backs
1) Based on share price at year end
Why invest in Hydro: key takeaways from today


Robust positioning with ambition to strengthen competitiveness

Portfolio of profitable growth projects as key enablers for the green transition Greener earnings uplift potential 2030

Resilient financial framework and competitive shareholder distribution

Pathway to net-zero aluminium products supported by partnerships

Good track record on relative shareholder value creation


Appendix
Significant exposure to commodity and currency fluctuations

Aluminium price sensitivity +10% Currency sensitivities +10% NOK million

Other commodity prices, sensitivity +10% NOK million

Sustainable effect:
| NOK million |
USD |
BRL |
EUR |
| AEBITDA |
3,840 |
(890) |
10 |
| One-off reevaluation effect: |
|
|
|
| Financial items |
(1,040) |
1,220 |
(3,730) |
|
|
|
|
- Annual adjusted sensitivities based on normal annual business volumes. LME 2,240 USD/mt, realized premium 490 USD/mt, PAX 350 USD/mt, fuel oil 820 USD/mt, petroleum coke 610 USD/mt, pitch 1,260 EUR/mt, caustic soda 650 USD/mt, coal 150 USD/mt, USDNOK 10.41, BRLNOK 2.06, EURNOK 11.11
- Aluminium price sensitivity is net of aluminium price indexed costs and excluding unrealized effects related to operational hedging
- BRL sensitivity calculated on a long-term basis with fuel oil assumed in USD. In the short-term, fuel oil is BRL-denominated
- Excludes effects of priced contracts in currencies different from underlying currency exposure (transaction exposure)
- Currency sensitivity on financial items includes effects from intercompany positions
- 2023 Platts alumina index (PAX) exposure used
- Adjusted Net Income sensitivity calculated as AEBITDA sensitivity after 30% tax
- Sensitivities include strategic hedges for 2023 (remaining volumes for 2023, annualized)
Bauxite & Alumina sensitivities

Annual sensitivities on adjusted EBITDA if +10% in price NOK million

Revenue impact
• Realized alumina price lags PAX by one month
Cost impact
Bauxite
- ~2.45 tonnes bauxite per tonne alumina
- Pricing partly LME-linked
Caustic soda
- ~0.1 tonnes per tonne alumina
- Prices based on IHS Chemical, pricing mainly monthly per shipment
Energy
- ~0.12 tonnes coal per tonne alumina, Platts prices, one year volume contracts, weekly per shipment pricing
- ~0.11 tonnes heavy fuel oil per tonne alumina, prices set by ANP/Petrobras in Brazil, weekly pricing (ANP) or anytime (Petrobras)
Annual adjusted sensitivities based on normal annual business volumes. LME 2,240 USD/mt, realized premium 490 USD/mt, PAX 350 USD/mt, fuel oil 820 USD/mt, petroleum coke 610 USD/mt, pitch 1,260 EUR/mt, caustic soda 650 USD/mt, coal 150 USD/mt, USDNOK 10.41, BRLNOK 2.06, EURNOK 11.11
BRL sensitivity calculated on a long-term basis with fuel oil assumed in USD. In the short-term, fuel oil is BRL-denominated. 2023 Platts alumina index (PAX) exposure used
Aluminium Metal sensitivities

Annual sensitivities on adjusted EBITDA if +10% in price NOK million

Revenue impact
- Realized price lags LME spot by ~1-2 months
- Realized premium lags market premium by ~2-3 months
Cost impact
Alumina
- ~1.9 tonnes per tonne aluminium
- ~ 2-3 months lag
- Mainly priced on Platts index
Carbon
- ~0.40 tonnes petroleum coke per tonne aluminium, Pace Jacobs Consultancy, 2-3 year volume contracts, quarterly or half yearly pricing
- ~0.08 tonnes pitch per tonne aluminium, CRU, 2-3 year volume contracts, quarterly pricing
Power
- 14.0 MWh per tonne aluminium
- Long-term power contracts with indexations
CAPEX sensitivity to FX

Annual sensitivities on CAPEX if +10% in currency1) NOK million

Capex currency exposure3)
- BRL ~40%
- USD ~15%
- EUR ~20%
- NOK and other ~25%
The estimates for the different currencies exposures for capex are based on the 2024-2026 allocation guidance.
The annual sensitivity estimates are based on the 2024 allocation guidance of 15 BNOK
There is possible underlying FX exposure in the Norwegian smelters for the EUR and for the USD
1) Based on the 15 BNOK 2024 capex guidance
2) Possible underlying FX exposure in Norwegian capex
3) Based on 24-26 allocation
Assumptions behind scenarios

Scenarios are not forecasts, but illustrative earnings, cash flow and return potential based on sensitivities
- Starting point AEBITDA Q3-23 LTM
- Cash flow calculated as AEBITDA less EBIT tax and long-term sustaining capex, less lease payments and interest expenses for the Hydro Group
- Tax rates: 25% for business areas, 40% for Energy, 28% (LTM) for Hydro Group
- ARoaCE calculated as AEBIT after tax divided by average capital employed
- Average capital employed assumed to increase with growth capex and return-seeking capex above LT sustaining CAPEX 2024-2026
- The actual earnings, cash flows and returns will be affected by other factors not included in the scenarios, including, but not limited to:
- Production volumes, raw material prices, downstream margin developments, premiums, inflation, currency, depreciation, taxes, investments, interest expense, competitors' cost positions, and others
- External scenario is based on CRU price and premium assumptions and S&P Global FX assumptions, with adjustments as specified in the footnotes
Price and FX assumptions
| Assumptions used in |
|
2024 forward real |
2030 |
|
|
| scenarios |
Q3 2023 LTM |
|
Forward real 2023 |
Last 5 year average |
CRU / S&P Global real 2023 |
| LME, USD/mt |
2,240 |
2,240 (deflated by 2.5%) |
2,300 (deflated by 2.5%) |
2,180 |
2,560 (deflated by 2.5%) |
| Realized premium, USD/mt |
490 |
3801) |
3801) |
430 |
5704) (deflated by 2.5%) |
| PAX, USD/mt |
350 |
320 (deflated by 2.5%) |
3402) (deflated by 2.5%) |
330 |
380 (deflated by 2.5%) |
| Caustic soda, USD/mt |
650 |
3201) |
3201) |
430 |
410 (deflated by 2.5%) |
| Coal, USD/mt |
150 |
110 (deflated by 2.5%) |
1003) (deflated by 2.5%) |
130 |
1007) (deflated by 2.5%) |
| Pitch, EUR/mt |
1,260 |
9701) |
9701) |
840 |
9205) (deflated by 2.5%) |
| Pet coke, USD/mt |
610 |
4701) |
4701) |
450 |
5005) (deflated by 2.5%) |
NO2, NOK/MWh Nordic system, NOK/MWh |
1,150 850 |
7706) 480 (deflated by 2.5%) |
6506) 400 (deflated by 2.5%) |
840 620 |
6507) 4007) (deflated by 2.5%) |
USDNOK EURNOK |
10.41 11.11 |
10.68 11.77 |
10.38 12.25 |
9.28 10.35 |
8.158) 9.588) |
| BRLNOK |
2.06 |
2.19 |
2.15 |
1.93 |
1.478) |
Next event Fourth quarter results and 2023 Annual Report February 14, 2024
For more information see www.hydro.com/ir
Investor Relations in Hydro

Martine Rambøl Hagen
t: +47 91708918 e: [email protected]

Elitsa Boyadzhieva
t: +47 91775472 e: [email protected]

Frida Rongved Jacobsen
t: +47 47860460 e: [email protected]

Camilla Gihle
