AI assistant
Nel ASA — Investor Presentation 2020
Jan 21, 2020
3670_iss_2020-01-21_3556e262-d135-4c22-af47-cb5da1a524b6.pdf
Investor Presentation
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Nel ASA
Company presentation January 2020
Disclaimer
This Presentation has been produced by Nel ASA (the "Company" or "Nel") in connection with a potential private placement and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This presentation is strictly confidential, has not been reviewed or registered with any public authority or stock exchange, and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. To the best of the knowledge of the Company, the information contained in this Presentation is in all material respect in accordance with the facts as of the date hereof, and contains no material omissions likely to affect its import. However, no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, any information, including projections, estimates, targets and opinions, contained herein, and no liability whatsoever is accepted as to any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein, and, accordingly, neither the Company nor any of its subsidiary companies or any such person's officers or employees accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this Presentation.
This Presentation contains information obtained from third parties. Such information has been accurately reproduced and, as far as the Company is aware and able to ascertain from the information published by that third party, no facts have been omitted that would render the reproduced information to be inaccurate or misleading. This Presentation contains certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the Company and/or the industry in which it operates. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words "believes", expects", "predicts", "intends", "projects", "plans", "estimates", "aims", "foresees", "anticipates", "targets", and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development. None of the Company or any of its parent or subsidiary undertakings or any such person's officers or employees provides any assurance that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor does any of them accept any responsibility for the future accuracy of the opinions expressed in this Presentation or the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. The Company assumes no obligation, except as required by law, to update any forward-looking statements or to conform these forward-looking statements to our actual results.
The Presentation is not for publication or distribution, in whole or in part directly or indirectly, in or into Australia, Canada, Japan or the United States (including its territories and possessions, any state of the United States and the District of Columbia) or any other jurisdiction in which the release, publication or distribution would be unlawful. The distribution of this Presentation may in certain jurisdictions be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this release comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of the securities laws of any such jurisdiction. The Managers are acting for the Company and no one else in connection with the matters discussed in this Presentation and will not be responsible to anyone other than the Company for providing the protections afforded to their respective clients or for providing advice in relation to any matter referred to in this Presentation.
AN INVESTMENT IN THE COMPANY INVOLVES RISK, AND SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CAUSE THE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE COMPANY TO BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM ANY FUTURE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS THAT MAY BE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION, INCLUDING, AMONG OTHERS, RISKS OR UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPANY'S BUSINESS, SEGMENTS, DEVELOPMENT, GROWTH MANAGEMENT, FINANCING, MARKET ACCEPTANCE AND RELATIONS WITH CUSTOMERS, AND, MORE GENERALLY, GENERAL ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS, CHANGES IN DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN LAWS AND REGULATIONS, TAXES, CHANGES IN COMPETITION AND PRICING ENVIRONMENTS, FLUCTUATIONS IN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES AND INTEREST RATES AND OTHER FACTORS.
SHOULD ONE OR MORE OF THESE RISKS OR UNCERTAINTIES MATERIALISE, OR SHOULD UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS PROVE INCORRECT, ACTUAL RESULTS MAY VARY MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DESCRIBED IN THIS PRESENTATION. THE COMPANY DOES NOT INTEND, AND DOES NOT ASSUME ANY OBLIGATION, TO UPDATE OR CORRECT THE INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS PRESENTATION.
Any decision to invest must only be made with careful consideration and not in reliance solely on the introductory information provided herein which does not purport to be complete. Any application to invest will be subject to a term sheet setting out the terms and conditions of the securities and an application form to which any investment will be subject. The Managers, their parent or subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or any such person's directors, officers, employees, advisors or representatives shall not have any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this Presentation and to the extent an investment is made, such investment will be made subject to this exclusion of liability. By attending or receiving this Presentation you acknowledge that you will be solely responsible for your own assessment of the market and the market position of the Company and that you will conduct your own analysis and be solely responsible for forming your own view of the potential future performance of the Company's business. This Presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in any jurisdiction to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation in such jurisdiction.
Nel in brief
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
- Global pure-play OSE listed hydrogen company, w/facilities in Norway, Denmark and US
- More than 3,500 hydrogen solutions delivered in 80+ countries worldwide since 1927
- A leading company within hydrogen electrolysers and fueling strong track-record
- Significant foothold in fast-growing markets with several breakthrough contracts
- Complete range of products for large market opportunities
• Capable of delivering solutions to produce, store and distribute hydrogen from renewable energy –
Transaction and Nel update
Continued strong trends experienced in the hydrogen market…
Rapid fall in the cost of renewable energy (e.g. solar and wind power) will eventually drive renewable hydrogen to outcompete natural-gas based hydrogen as electricity accounts for 70-80% of green hydrogen
STRONG MOMENTUM WITHIN MOBILITY – ESPECIALLY WITHIN HDV 1
ACCELERATED FOCUS ON INDUSTRIAL HYDROGEN APPLICATIONS
2
Hydrogen as the preferred future fuel alternative – facilitates true zero emission from production to use
Selected announcements:
Selected applications:
Electrolysis potential >2,000 GW
Strong adoption of hydrogen application across industries with huge overall potential
Electrolysis potential >2,000 GW
Hyundai reveals Heavy-Duty Truck concepts – plan to deliver 1,600 trucks to Switzerland Anglo American/Engie to develop Fuel Cell Electric mining trucks IVECO and Nikola partnering in the European fuel cell Heavy-Duty Truck market
…with fast-growing interest in green hydrogen – strong attention from several of the world's largest industry- and energy companies
- Large industry- and energy companies have engaged in green hydrogen projects recently
- Some of the companies own and operate hydrogen solutions, while others also engage in development and manufacturing of electrolysers and/or hydrogen refueling stations
- In addition, several EPC companies are also positioning themselves to build green hydrogen production plants
- The activity of Nel's competitors is growing, with selected competitors receiving considerable capital injections from large industrial companies during 2019
Industrial gas companies positioning within the hydrogen segment
Recent investments by gas heavyweights illustrate the increasing emphasis placed on hydrogen as part of the clean energy transition
20% stake in British electrolyser manufacturer ITM Power
10% stake in Swiss green hydrogen producer and supplier Hydrospider
18.6% stake in the capital of the Canadian company Hydrogenics Corporation
Undisclosed stake in FirstElement Fuel, a retail hydrogen station operator
Nel is today one of the leading players within green hydrogen as a manufacturer of electrolysers and hydrogen refueling stations
Nel will increase use of resources related to the electrolyser manufacturing expansion project to realise significant cost reductions and to maintain and improve its position, especially in connection with new large-scale projects
- Strong interest in green hydrogen for an increasing number of markets leads to a need for Nel to step up the activity level even faster than previously envisioned
- The work related to the Herøya expansion (new alkaline manufacturing plant) goes according to plan
- Significant opportunities for cost reductions identified realization of these will require considerable resources both related to engineering and testing, and Nel has chosen to increase the use of resources accordingly
- Capacity can upon completion be rapidly increased beyond 1GW/yr from initial 360MW/yr to serve existing contracts, and to open up for other large-scale green hydrogen projects with high probability of being realized in the relatively near future
Nel is today the world's largest manufacturer of both alkaline and PEM electrolysers, and is also one of the leading hydrogen refueling station manufactures
To maintain and strengthen its position in a growing market, Nel will accelerate investments in technology and organization
Increase investment in technology development, both for improving existing as well as developing future platforms
Continue to develop the organization, both within engineering, project execution, production and process improvements
- Increased focus on heavy duty mobility application (trucks, buses, ferries, etc.), with new demands for fueling capacity and speed, has triggered a step-up of product development
- Nel has built up and will further strengthen the management systems and organization for development, engineering, commissioning and construction management of large-scale hydrogen production facilities
- Work to reduce cost further while increasing efficiency, together with sub-suppliers and EPC companies, by reviewing total process from design/manufacturing to installation/operation
Prepare for rapid capacity expansions and entry into new markets/regions
- Positioning for increased use of renewable hydrogen for various industrial applications, e.g.:
- Replacement of natural gas-based hydrogen in refineries and ammonia production
- Replacement of coal with hydrogen as reducing agent in steel production etc.
Increasingly important to be a financially strong counterpart, especially for larger contracts
- Nel is experiencing increased number of inquiries for larger scale projects
- For larger projects a strong balance sheet and financial position is important to show ability to satisfy contractual obligations including ability:
- to deliver technology, solutions, equipment according to customer expectations
- to ensure that projects are bankable, incl. performance guarantees
- to execute projects with large-scale requirements
HYBRIT fossil free steel plant under construction in Luleå (Picture: H2View)
The contemplated transaction
| KEY TRANSACTION DETAILS | USE OF PROCEEDS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| CONTEMPLATED TRANSACTION |
Private placement • |
• Maintain and strengthen market position through accelerated investments in technology and organization to take advantage of the attractive market opportunities |
|
| OFFER SIZE | • Up to 89,000,000 new ordinary shares (approx. 7.3% of the outstanding capital) |
• Strengthening investment in development and innovation across segments and technologies to stay on the technological forefront • Continue to develop the organization, both within management systems, engineering, project execution, production and process improvement − Additional focus on people and safety |
|
| OFFER PRICE | • To be determined through book building |
||
| MINIMUM SUBSCRIPTION |
• NOK equivalent of EUR 100,000 |
• Strengthening the balance sheet and financial position to satisfy counterpart requirements on large scale projects • Ability to satisfy contractual obligations |
|
| CONDITIONS | Board approval of the • transaction based on the authorization to issue shares from the annual general meeting |
• Ability to provide required bonds/guarantees • The proceeds will also fund additional working capital in response to increased order volumes and contract sizes, as well as general corporate purposes |
Trading update
| TRADING UPDATE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Q4 sales slightly higher than Q3 | ||
| EBITDA (reported) |
Q4 EBITDA (reported) is negatively impacted by significant ramp-up costs and other non-recurring costs as a result of increased activity. Including year-end closing judgements and evaluation of various projects, EBITDA may end around NOK -45 million. In terms of adjusted EBITDA, this may end around NOK -25 million. |
||
| Cash reserve | Q4 cash reserve of NOK ~520 million | ||
| Backlog | Current order backlog NOK ~510 million in combination with an all time high pipeline | ||
| Update on Uno-X Hydrogen |
Uno-X Hydrogen AS is a JV owned 39% by Nel, which owns and operates hydrogen infrastructure in Norway. Since the incident at one of its stations in June, the remaining two JV-stations have been out of operation. In the event of the JV ceasing operations, Nel could incur write down cost of the investment in the range of NOK 30 mill. |
||
Recent Nel announcements, Q4 2019
| 27 DECEMBER 2019 PURCHASE ORDER |
• Purchase order from Everfuel Europe A/S for the delivery of a H2Station® fueling solution for a fleet of taxis in Copenhagen, Denmark |
|---|---|
| 20 DECEMBER 2019 PURCHASE ORDER |
• Purchase order for the delivery of two H2Station® units for fueling of vehicles in Europe • EUR ~2 million contract value (further details will be released in Q1-2020) |
| 20 DECEMBER 2019 ESTABLISHES JOINT VENTURE |
• Establishment of Green H2 Norway, a JV together with H2 Energy AS, Greenstat AS and Akershus Energi Infrastruktur AS • Renewable hydrogen production facilities to supply hydrogen to Hyundai trucks which are expected in Norway from 2020 |
| 17 DECEMBER 2019 PURCHASE ORDER |
• Purchase order from OrangeGas for the delivery of multiple H2Station® units for fueling of predominately light duty fuel cell electric vehicles in the Netherlands (EUR ~3 million) |
| 9 DECEMBER 2019 PURCHASE ORDER |
• Purchase order, following a previously announced contract, for a 3.5 MW electrolyser from ENGIE (~USD 4m contract value) • Part of solution to produce renewable hydrogen for the world's largest fuel cell electric mining haul truck for Anglo American |
| 4 DECEMBER 2019 PURCHASE ORDER |
• Purchase order from Hydrogen Energy Network Co., Ltd. (HyNet) for two additional H2Station® hydrogen fueling stations in Korea (EUR ~2.7 million) – Nel is up to a total of 12 H2Station® orders in Korea in 2019 |
A unique opportunity in the hydrogen space
Nel - a unique opportunity in the hydrogen space
1 Hydrogen – a large market opportunity
Hydrogen market is set to grow by 10x by 2050, today electrolysis represents only ~1% of the market
2 Hydrogen from renewables becoming competitive
Large cost reductions for renewable energy combined with falling electrolyser capex leads to total cost of renewable hydrogen approaching fossil parity
3 Nel positioned as one of the global leaders
Among the largest electrolyser and hydrogen fueling station manufacturers with >3,500 electrolyser solutions delivered in ~80 countries worldwide
4 Broad portfolio covers relevant technologies & sizes One-stop-shop offering solutions for production and fueling of hydrogen
5 Nel will continue to invest to maintain and strengthen leadership position and capture attractive market opportunities
Large opportunities for electrolysis within existing hydrogen market – only 1% from water electrolysis today
Global hydrogen market, by end-use1):
1
Large potential for growth, driven by increasing focus on climate and renewable energy, decreasing electricity prices and decreasing electrolyser capex
Special focus on renewable hydrogen for refineries and ammonia, accounting for ~80% of the market
Electrolysis is set to take larger share of overall hydrogen market. Annual electrolyser market potential of >\$20
Hydrogen demand is changing longer-term, transportation and industry to be largest demand sources in the future 1
Global energy demand supplied with Hydrogen (mill tons)1)
- Hydrogen market continues to develop, both within industrial applications as well as within transportation and power-to-gas
- Development seen over last few years points to the fact that the hydrogen market will grow substantially over the next years
- Growth in hydrogen market primarily driven by:
- ꟷ Regulations to lower sulphur demands for fuel
- ꟷ Decreased crude quality, requires more hydrogen for processing
- ꟷ Electrification of transport sector
- ꟷ A move from coal to hydrogen for various industries (e.g. steel manufacturing)
- Transport sector expected to dominate as of 2050, accounting for ~29% of the hydrogen demand
- Depending on cost development and penetration of renewable energy, electrolysis market can potentially grow by >500x by 2050
Hydrogen is expanding its areas of application 1
- Conventional industries represents "traditional" hydrogen markets
- Steady demand for hydrogen
| ٠ | ٠ ٠ |
|
|---|---|---|
Mobility
(transportation)
- Key market going forward both within hydrogen production and fueling
- Heavy duty sector developing faster than anticipated – hydrogen now relevant fuel for all forms of mobility
- Decreasing cost of renewables & electrolysers is accelerating market
- Vast opportunities within existing & new sectors
Steady growing market Markets expected to see fast growth going forward
Growth expected to be accelerated by transportation – hydrogen is becoming relevant in all forms of mobility
Hydrogen as the preferred future fuel alternative:
- − True zero emission from production to use
- − Can beat fossil fuel applications on a TCO-basis
- − Low weight (compared to e.g. batteries), especially relevant in the heavy duty segment
- − Fast recharging (fueling) time
- − Long driving range
- − Low/no need for electric grid upgrades
- − Not dependent on rare earth metals (e.g. cobalt, lithium)
- − Global standards for fueling established
- − Same quality fuel used for small to large applications
- − Cleans the surrounding air
Electrolysis potential > 2,000 GW
Freight activity / heavy duty transport projected to double by 2050 1
- Heavy duty vehicles responsible for 47% of CO2 emissions from land based mobility and ~8% of total global CO2-emissions
- Freight activity (ton-km) projected to double by 2050
- Hydrogen most promising zero-emission fuel for heavy trucks
Power-To-X to drive additional growth – decreasing cost of renewable hydrogen (and oxygen) is opening up new business areas
Photos: Yara, Equinor, IAV, Tizir, SSAB, Nexofin, TU, DN, SinkabergHansen
Hydrogen as a big decarbonizing vector in industry
- Wide variety of existing and new markets where electrolysis can play a major role
- Exchanging fossil hydrogen with renewable hydrogen (e.g. fertilizer)
- Exchanging coal with renewable hydrogen (e.g. steel manufacturing)
- Oxygen & heat adds value
- Electrolysis "bridges the gap" between the power and industry sector, increasing the value of electrons
- Ability to adapt to diverse and intermittent renewable energy sources becoming increasingly important
Electrolysis potential >2,000 GW
Cost of wind and solar has dropped by 70% and 89% respectively during last decade – renewable hydrogen following the same path
Wind and solar on a trajectory to become the cheapest sources for electricity generation
Global average solar PV LCOE
Global average wind (onshore) LCOE
Unsubsidised levelized cost of energy (\$/MWh) 2)
• With falling LCOE1) of wind and solar prices, renewable hydrogen follows the same path, as electrical power constitutes 70-80% of the total cost of hydrogen
- Record low auction prices for solar PV and wind has seen prices as low as \$14.99/MWh and \$17.86/MWh respectively3,4
- Prices are expected to drop further, LCOE of solar PV and onshore wind are expected to fall by 71% and 58% respectively by 20505)
- At \$50/MWh renewable hydrogen is becoming competitive with fossil fuels and at \$30/MWh renewable hydrogen is becoming competitive in most markets
\$135 \$124
2
Note: 1) LCOE = Levelised cost of energy, which is a way of calculating the total production cost of building and operating an electricity-generating plant Source: 2) Lazard; Renewables Now, 3)Elpasoheraldpost 4) IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency); 5) BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook 2018 Hydrogen technology is behind solar and wind on the maturity curve, but catching up – key technology going forward to be decided
- Hydrogen industry (electrolysis and fueling stations) can become as large as we currently see within wind and solar, however, maturity (market/technology) is far behind
- − Will see same focus on cost reductions
- Early stage maturity leads to several technologies competing to be the "winning technology", like previously seen within e.g. solar
- − For electrolysis, it is still unclear whether atmospheric or pressurized alkaline or PEM will be the winning technology
- Increased volumes will reduce costs, e.g.:
- − Swanson's Law, prices of solar PV tend to drop 20% for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume
2
New report from Hydrogen Council: Acceleration of scale up to drive great cost reductions in the coming decade
2
- New report, Path to Hydrogen Competitiveness: A Cost Perspective, from Hydrogen Council issued 20 January 2020
- Evaluates path to cost competitiveness for 40 hydrogen technologies used in 35 applications
- Scale-up in the production and distribution of hydrogen and the manufacturing of system components to be the most influential driver of cost reduction
- Cost of low-carbon and/or renewable hydrogen production to fall by up to 60% over the coming decade as a result of falling costs of renewable electricity generation, scaling up of electrolyser manufacturing, and development of lower-cost carbon storage facilities
- Distribution costs will drop significantly with higher utilisation of distribution system infrastructure
- TCO per vehicle will fall by approx. 45% versus today at a manufacturing scale of approximately 0.6m vehicles per year as an example
- Link: https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Path-to-Hydrogen-Competitiveness\_Full-Study-1.pdf
Growth in renewable hydrogen will accelerate with reduced capex for electrolysers....
Capex of hydrogen production (\$/kW) of SMR vs Nel alkaline electrolysers
2
Source: Nel
- SMR "steam methane reforming" is dominating hydrogen production today, using natural gas and steam
- Nel is establishing a new manufacturing plant targeting a >40% cost reduction
- − Expect to see further reduction in capex with increased production volume, and further size scaling of products
- Nel targets capex to drop below SMR over time
- Electrolysis expected to be the preferred production method if opex (i.e. power prices) is low enough (or at parity) with the alternative production methods (see next page)
24
…and low prices for renewable energy makes green hydrogen increasingly competitive with gasoline/diesel and fossil hydrogen
Low cost renewable electricity enables fossil parity for hydrogen - expect price to decrease further going forward
2
- Opex accounts for ~75% while capex represents ~25% of the total cost of hydrogen
- At or below 5¢ per kWh, renewable hydrogen can be competitive with fossil fuels
- Local price of fossil fuels, taxation schemes and utilization rate of electrolyser and fueling station important factors
- At 30 \$ per MWh, renewable hydrogen is reaching fossil parity for industrial uses
- Local prices of natural gas, taxation schemes and distance to market important factors
- Centralised production can use low cost renewable energy and achieve scale advantages while onsite production eliminates costs for distribution
LCOE of new build wind and solar vs marginal cost of coal and nuclear in 2019 [\$/MWh], Source: Lazard and Nel | purple lines illustrate combination of capex & opex
Nel among the global market leaders within electrolysers
Electrolyser manufacturers 2018 revenues, USD million
- Nel is the largest manufacturer of electrolysers globally
- Nel has an unmatched track record with more than 3,500 hydrogen solutions delivered in ~80 countries world wide since 1927
- Nel continues to strengthen its position through continued high sales activity
PEM and Alkaline electrolysers from Nel 4
- Alkaline electrolysers since 1927 and PEM electrolysers since 1996
- Scalable design from < 1 to >8.000 kg/day production capacity able to deliver 100+ MW systems
- Designed for high volume manufacturing to achieve large scale plants with fossil price parity
From kW- to multi-MW industrial size hydrogen production plants
The hydrogen market is expected to grow significantly and renewable hydrogen is on a trajectory to outcompete fossil hydrogen
Increasing adoption of industrial hydrogen applications with huge overall potential
Strong momentum within mobility – especially within HDV. Hydrogen as the preferred future fuel alternative – facilitates true zero emission from production to use
To maintain and strengthen its leading position in a growing market, Nel will accelerate investments in organization and technology
Markets in which Nel operates show high activity and strong growth momentum – increasingly important to be a financially strong counterpart, especially for larger contracts
Nel targets to maintain its current leading position in the electrolysis sector, continuing to develop both PEM and alkaline technologies to satisfy specific customer needs and preferences
Going from small to large scale manufacturing
Secured location for low-cost alkaline electrolyser manufacturing at Herøya, Norway
Alkaline electrolyser manufacturing plant with possibility to grow beyond 1 GW/year
Possible set-up for 3 production lines at the Herøya facilities, each line with an initial name-plate capacity of 360 MW/year
Hydrogen fueling station from Nel – the H2Station®
- Most compact hydrogen station in the market with a footprint of < 10m2
- Proprietary and high capacity compression and cooling technology
- Advanced control system for safe, fast and complete fueling in accordance with the latest version of SAE J2601-1
- State-of-the-art Mechanical and Safety Instrumented System design with third party certifications
Large-scale H2Station® production facility in Denmark
Annual nameplate production capacity of up to 300 H2Stations
- First production line in the world for hydrogen stations
- Serial production according to lean principles represents significant improvements in existing production efficiency
- Hydrogen compression, cooling and gas control assembled onto one skid
- Allows both CE- and UL-certified stations off the line
- H2Stations for Europe, US and Asia running on same production line (70MPa and 35MPa fueling option)
Key risks to the Nel investment case
Key risks to the Nel investment case (1 of 2)
Nel cannot know for certain whether hydrogen will become a major energy carrier, or whether renewable energy will be a large source of hydrogen production for industrial purposes in the future
There is still uncertainty regarding which electrolyser technologies that will become the "winning technologies" in the future. In the meantime Nel will pursue multiple technology tracks (like atmospheric alkaline, pressurized alkaline and PEM) which demands significant capital investments
There is still uncertainty within the area of mobility, especially heavy duty (e.g. trucks, busses, trains, boats, ferries), where development of new technology elements will require significant capital investments. To what extent fuel cell based technology will be the winning solution or not is still uncertain
There is no guarantee that the price of renewable electricity will continue to decrease, hence there is no guarantee for the future competitiveness of renewable hydrogen vs f.ex hydrogen from natural gas w/carbon capture and storage (blue hydrogen)
There is no guarantee that there will be enough production capacity and high enough capacity utilization to drive down manufacturing costs according to envisaged target levels. Further cost reductions are critical for the overall success of Nel and renewable hydrogen
Key risks to the Nel investment case (2 of 2)
Nel's ability to execute successfully on large commercial projects, projects may be located in various parts of the world and could incur significant cost overruns as well as delays
Nikola and/or Nel's ability to execute according to the framework contract, incl. technical solutions and deliveries, commercial discussions and the overall financial attractiveness of the contract/POs for both parties
Investments for developing new technologies and production facilities may exceed the current estimates
The Nel organization is currently relatively small, especially in light of the large potential opportunities that lies ahead. There is no guarantee that Nel will be able to build a capable organization at the speed that is required to maintain its leadership position
Nel's ability to maintain a leadership position within hydrogen electrolysers and hydrogen fueling - new, strong competitors may enter our markets
Nel perceives the largest risk to be carrying out demanding investments, technology developments and fulfilling large orders over a relative short period, while at the same time successfully developing the organization
Appendix
Appendix: Profit and loss
| (NOK million) | 2019 Q3* |
2018 Q3** |
2018 Full year |
2017 Full year*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating revenue | 148.9 | 116.0 | 489.0 | 302.2 |
| Total operating costs | 197.3 | 182.2 | 685.1 | 419.4 |
| EBITDA | -28.9 | -53.3 | -131.6 | -77.4 |
| EBIT | -48.4 | -66.3 | -196.1 | -117.2 |
| Pre-tax loss | -34.3 | -67.4 | -197.5 | -124.4 |
| Net loss | -32.4 | -65.5 | -188.9 | -52.4 |
| Net cash flow from operating activities | -31.0 | -37.4 | -142.6 | -113.0 |
| Cash balance at end of period | 651.0 | 434.1 | 349.7 | 295.0 |
* The numbers for 2019 include effects of IFRS 16 and comparative figures have not been re-stated
** EBITDA negatively impacted in Q3 18, total non-recurring and other cost of NOK 36.5 million
*** The figures include Proton OnSite from the acquisition date, 30 June 2017
Appendix: Balance sheet
| (NOK million) | 2019 Q3 |
2018 Year End |
|---|---|---|
| Non-current assets | 1,397.6 | 1,307.7 |
| Current assets | 1,096.3 | 636.7 |
| -of which is cash and cash equivalents | 651.0 | 349.7 |
| Equity | 1,951.3 | 1,579.0 |
| Non-current liabilities | 203.5 | 175.9 |
| Current liabilities | 339.1 | 189.5 |
| Total balance | 2,493.9 | 1,944.4 |
| Equity ratio (%) | 78.2% | 81.2% |
Appendix: Cash flow
| (NOK million) | 2019 Q3 |
2018 Full year |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax loss | -34.3 | -197.5 |
| Net cash from operations | -31.0 | -142.6 |
| Net cash from investments | -26.4 | -143.5 |
| Net cash from financing | 10.7 | 340.8 |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents | -46.7 | 54.7 |
| Cash at end of period | 651.0 | 349.7 |