Nabaltec AG — Investor Presentation 2024

May 14, 2024

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Baader Helvea Equity Research COMPANY UPDATE

14 May 2024

Nabaltec

Germany Chemicals

No big recovery in FY24E but improving sentiment and outlook

• ◼ Investment case: While we believe the ceramics industry and refractory client base in Europe and Germany have taken a permanent hit, which is particularly affecting Nabaltec in the Specialty Alumina segment, the company will only feel parts of this on the bottom line as the management focuses on profitable specialties, while actively reducing exposure to low-margin products. Furthermore, the company will quickly outgrow this shortfall through growth in the Functional Fillers business, driven by Boehmite and Viscosity-optimized aluminum hydroxides, where Nabaltec has successfully found its way into the battery manufacturing value chain over the last few years and is, in our view; well positioned to participate in particular from the planned capacity expansions in Europe and North America. Despite the current slowdown in EV acceptance, in particular in Germany, the 2030E outlook, even if delayed by a few years, still implies substantial growth in the battery market with an expected quadrupling of global battery manufacturing capacity from 2023 levels and more importantly the European capacity might grow by 9x and the North American by 12x. If Nabaltec would keep its market share in Boehmite broadly stable until 2030E and fully utilizes its current capacity expansions, the business could stand for EUR 55-60mn itself and total battery-related revenues could add up to about EUR 90mn and reflect a group revenue CAGR of 4.2% on stable other revenues, which clearly underpins the attractive growth potential for the company.
• ◼ Valuation: On our updated estimates, the company would trade on approx. 40% discount to historical EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT multiples, while also trading below book value at still historical lows. Only two of our valuation methods indicate downside to the current share price. The average of our valuation cascade stands for EUR 20 per share, which reflects our updated target price . Based on this upside and our view that both the company's business and the small cap sector have seen its trough, we reiterate our Buy recommendation.

	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
Gross sales (EUR mn)	218.8	200.1	198.8	210.1	221.2
EBITDA (EUR mn)	42.4	31.0	28.1	30.9	33.7
EBIT reported (EUR mn)	29.2	18.3	15.3	16.2	17.9
EBIT adjusted (EUR mn)	29.2	18.3	15.3	16.2	17.9
Net income (EUR mn)	26.4	11.4	10.4	11.1	12.2
EPS reported (EUR)	3.00	1.30	1.19	1.26	1.39
EPS adjusted (EUR)	3.00	1.30	1.19	1.26	1.39
DPS (EUR)	0.28	0.28	0.28	0.33	0.38
Dividend yield (%)	1.0	1.4	1.8	2.2	2.5
P/E adjusted (x)	9.2	15.7	12.8	12.1	10.9
P/BV (x)	1.8	1.3	0.9	0.8	0.8
EV/Sales (x)	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.6
EV/EBITDA (x)	5.8	6.0	5.0	4.8	4.1
EV/EBIT (x)	8.4	10.1	9.2	9.1	7.8
Net debt/EBITDA (x)	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.2

Source: Company data, Baader Helvea Equity Research

Buy (prev. Buy)

Closing price as of 13-May-24	EUR 15.20
High/Low (12M)	21.40/12.55
Target price (prev. EUR 31.00)	EUR 20.00
Upside to target price (%)	31.6
Expected dividend yield (%)	1.8
Total return potential (%)	33.4
Reuters/Bloomberg	NTGG.DE/NTG GY
Avg. daily turnover (EUR mn)	0.15
Free float (%)	45.0
Market cap. (EUR mn)	134
No. of shares issued (mn)	8.8
Events
Annual general meeting	25-Jun-2024
1Q	23-May-2024
Shareholders	Heckmann family 28.2%,
	Witzany family 27.2%,
	AGI 5%

Price relative to Index

Performance (%)	1M	3M	6M
Absolute	6.3	-0.7	0.7
rel. DAX	1.8	-11.7	-21.5
rel. STOXX Europe 600	3.2	-8.5	-16.0
rel. SXXP Chemicals	6.9	-7.9	-10.5

Changes in estimates

EUR mn	2024E Prev.	Delta (%)	2025E Prev.	Delta (%)
Gross sales	210.5	-5.5	222.5	-5.6
EBIT adj.	19.6	-21.6	25.2	-35.7
EPS adj. (EUR)	1.50	-20.7	1.98	-36.4
DPS (EUR)	0.23	21.7	0.26	26.9

Analyst: Konstantin Wiechert

+41 43 388 9213 kwiechert@helvea.com

Nabaltec

INVESTMENT SUMMARY

While we believe the ceramics industry and refractory client base in Europe and Germany have taken a permanent hit, which is particularly affecting Nabaltec in the Specialty Alumina segment, the company will quickly outgrow this shortfall through growth in the Functional Fillers business, driven by Boehmite and Viscosity-optimized aluminum hydroxides. With these two products Nabaltec successfully found its way into the battery manufacturing value chain over the last few years and is, in our view, well positioned to participate in particular from the planned capacity expansions in Europe and North America. Despite the current slowdown in EV acceptance, particularly in Germany, the 2030E outlook, even if delayed by a few years, still implies substantial growth in the battery market with an expected quadrupling of global battery manufacturing capacity from 2023 levels and, more importantly, with the European capacity growing by 9x and the North American by 12x. In addition to this underlying growth, Nabaltec will profit in particular from a) the growth in Europe and NA, where competition is so far less intense and Nabaltec is well positioned with local production, and b) an increasing adoption of Boehmite in especially edge coating (which is currently still below 50%, in our view). Furthermore, the company indirectly (through adhesive manufacturers such as Henkel) profits from the battery growth through increasing adaptation of viscosity-optimized aluminum hydroxides in adhesives and as gap fillers. If Nabaltec would keep its market share in Boehmite broadly stable until 2030E and fully utilizes its current capacity expansions, the business could stand for EUR 55-60mn itself and total battery-related revenues could add up to about EUR 90mn and reflect a group revenue CAGR of 4.2% on stable other revenues, which clearly underpins the attractive growth potential for the company. On the current capacity expansion projects ongoing, which include the expansion of Boehmite capacity to 20kt (from 10kt) and the operational realignment in Schwandorf, which will enable up to 30kt of viscosity-optimized aluminum hydroxides and additional 20kt of standard aluminum hydroxides, the company could generate between EUR 70-80mn in sales.

The remaining majority of the Functional Fillers business will recover with volume growth in 2024E as the business was impacted by destocking last year, however on lower prices, as the company has been profiting from a positive pricing spread especially in 2021/22, which we expect to normalize further towards sustainable EBITDA margins of 16-19% (Baader Helvea 2024E: 17.7% for FF). The Wire and Cable business has seen particular destocking in 4Q23, as data center operators, such as AWS, became more cautious on near-term cloud storage demand, which led to destocking at Nabaltec's cable customers, while the remaining business was impacted by destocking along the year in-line with the whole chemical industry. Despite this short-term cautiousness of the market, the overall data center prospective remains unchanged and further driven by increasing demand for AI computing power. Consequently, we expect the FF business (ex-Battery) to grow by 3% for 2025/26E, driven by 5% growth from data centers and lower growth from (other) construction and chemical-related sectors.

We expect the demand from the ceramics and refractory industry to recover by about 4-6%, as the business was strongly impacted by destocking and shutdowns over the last two years, while we expect prices to decrease by about 5% as customers become more conscious of prices again. As the management expects parts of the business' profitability to remain challenged by Asian competition, the company will focus on higher-margin specialties while reducing low- and no-margin business. Therefore, we expect Specialty Alumina margin growth of 50bps from 2024E to 2026E on a positive mix-effect, while topline only grows at around 1%.

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Baader Helvea Equity Research COMPANY UPDATE

Nabaltec

BATTERY INVESTMENT CASE

While the growth of EV adoption rates is currently slowing down due to subsidy cuts in important regions, such as Germany and parts of China, the mid-term growth outlook for the battery market and therefore for Nabaltec's Boehmite and Viscosity-optimized aluminum hydroxides remains intact. Important European separator film coating projects for which Nabaltec is the most likely supplier include SK IE's Poland Plant 1-4, LG Chem/Toray's, Semcorp and Samsung W-Scope's Hungary plants, which could stand for a total demand for Boehmite of approx. 13.7kt when fully ramped up. While SK IE's plant 1 & 2 and Semcorp's are already operational and LG Chem/Toray's Hungary plant is in advanced stage, they are currently still running clearly below nameplate capacity and therefore much of the approx. 5kt/p.a. Nabaltec has been selling the last two years went to Asia. Nabaltec is also actively establishing business relationships in North America, where projects from Asahi Kasei, Semcorp and Entek could stand for approx. 13.4kt of Boehmite when fully running.

The above included separator film projects would support battery capacity of approx. 340 GWh in Europe and 330 GWh in North America. Depending on the adoption rate of edge coating, which is, in our view, clearly increasing as battery lifetime becomes more important and edge coating clearly reduces the risk of internal battery damage, the capacity additions in Europe and NA could stand for an additional 17kt in total.

Though Boehmite production is not rocket science, and though competition clearly exists, we believe Nabaltec can secure between 11-14% of the global Boehmite market for the next six years at profitable prices, as a) both the largest competitor (Estone) and the majority of competition are based in China, which gives Nabaltec clear tariff advantages in the U.S., b) Nabaltec's Boehmite production is not materially impacted by generally higher energy prices in Germany as the Schwandorf site is steam-supplied from the neighboring waste incineration plant, for which Nabaltec has arranged special agreements, and c) Nabaltec has a local production footprint, which gives them a freight cost advantage in Europe and NA and stands for increased supply security.

With the current investment project for the expansion of Boehmite production to 20kt (EUR 20mn total investment, EUR 7mn already in 2023) and the reorganization and expansion of downstream production in Schwandorf, which will enable up to 30kt of Viscosity-optimized aluminum hydroxides and 20kt of standard aluminum hydroxides (EUR 25mn), the company is clearly underpinning their intention to serve the European battery industry. For Nabaltec, this will lead to major capex in 2024-26E, which we expect to peak this year at around EUR 30mn.

Forecasting the demand for Nabaltec's Viscosity-optimized alumina hydroxides is currently still tougher as the global adoption rather of this specialty in adhesives and as fillers in batteries is still very low. Nonetheless, the company is already selling around 5kt, and adhesive manufacturers, such as Henkel, Sika or Dow, are in our view interested in expanding their use of this aluminum hydroxide in their battery adhesives and for battery fillers as the material is more efficient than currently used alumina or silica-based solutions and required to improve heat transmission to the cooling system.

Company	Country	Plant	Capacity (mn sqm)	Capacity (GWh)	Boehmite demand (kt)	Investment volume (EUR mn)	Ramp-up
	Poland	Plant 1	340	34	1.360		3Q21
	Poland	Plant 2	340	34	1.360		1Q23
SK IE	Poland	Plant 3	430	43	1.720	425	2Q24
	Poland	Plant 4	430	43	1.720	425	2Q24
LG Chem/Toray	Hungary	Nyergesújfalu	334	33	1.336	330
Semcorp	Hungary		344	34	1.376	340	3Q23
Samsung W-Scope	Hungary	Nyíregyháza	1,200	120	4.800	720	2025
Asahi Kasei	Canada	Ontario	700	70	2.800	1,070	2027
	USA	North C.	700	70	2.800	238	1H26
Semcorp	USA	Ohio	550	55	2.200	840	2025
Entek	USA	Indiana	1,400	140	5.600	1,376	2027/28
		Indiana					18 add. lines
Sum			6,768	677	27.072	5,764

Announced battery film coating plants and potential demand for Boehmite in Europe and NA (excl. demand for edge coating)

Source: Company data, Baader Helvea Equity Research

Nabaltec

VALUATION

Our valuation cascade averages EUR 20 per share, which is below our previous target price but underpins, in our view, the robustness of our new target price , as only the dividend yield, which is of minor importance for Nabaltec so far, and the 2024E ROCE/WACC points towards downside. Our DCF, which best reflects the mid-term potential of the increasing implementation of Boehmite and Viscosity-optimized alumina hydroxides in batteries, still indicates upside to EUR 26 per share, while the 2023 book value of equity even stands for EUR 34 per share. Simultaneously the current P/BV is at historical lows and below 1, which clearly shows the trough valuation at which the company still trades. The current slowdown in the ramp-up of battery manufacturing and the business lost due to lower demand from the refractory and ceramics industry is, however, weighting on the short-term potential. Nonetheless, we believe this is already overcompensated for in the current share price and, as such, we believe investors should remain committed to the story and see attractive upside from our valuation and see the market sentiment slowly improving for small caps again.

With our new TP of EUR 20 per share, we reiterate our Buy recommendation with about 31% upside to the current share price.

Our valuation cascade (avg: EUR 19.80 per share)

Source: LSEG, Baader Helvea Equity Research

Historical P/BV multiples vs 2023 book value of equity* Historical EV/EBITDA multiples and our NTM expectation*

* Low and high reflect first and ninth decile

Source: LSEG, Baader Helvea Equity Research

Nabaltec

SEGMENT RESULTS

	1Q24E	qoq (%)	2Q24E	1H24E	2024E	2025E	2026E
EUR mn	39.0	20.2	36.0	75.0	140.6	150.7	161.5
%	-2.7		5.4	1.0	-1.2	7.1	7.2
EUR mn					22.2	28.4	35.7
%					-1.0	28.1	25.5
EUR mn	7.0	-1.4	6.2	13.2	23.9	26.4	29.1
%	18.0	-400bps	17.3	17.7	17.0	17.5	18.0
EUR mn	4.6	-0.2	3.8	8.4	14.1	14.8	16.3
%	11.7	-200bps	10.5	11.2	10.0	9.8	10.1
EUR mn	15.0	26.6	14.5	29.5	58.2	59.4	59.7
%	-11.6		-2.7	-7.4	0.6	2.1	0.5
EUR mn	1.2	1.4	1.0	2.2	4.2	4.5	4.6
%	8.0	-200bps	7.2	7.6	7.2	7.6	7.7
EUR mn	0.5	-29.3	0.3	0.8	1.2	1.4	1.6
%	3.1	-200bps	2.1	2.6	2.1	2.4	2.6
EUR mn	54.0	21.9	50.5	104.5	198.8	210.1	221.2
%	-5.3		2.9	-1.5	-0.7	5.7	5.3
EUR mn	8.2	-1.0	7.3	15.5	28.1	30.9	33.7
%	15.2	-400bps	14.4	14.8	14.1	14.7	15.2
EUR mn	5.0	-3.8	4.1	9.1	15.3	16.2	17.9
%	9.3	-300bps	8.1	8.7	7.7	7.7	8.1

Source: Company data, Baader Helvea Equity Research

CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT

		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
Revenues	CHF mn	176.7	179.0	159.6	187.0	218.8	200.1	198.8	210.1	221.2
Change in stock/own work capitalized	CHF mn	0.7	2.6	-3.9	0.2	4.1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
as a percentage of sales	%	0.4	1.5	-2.5	0.1	1.9	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total turnover	CHF mn	177.4	181.7	155.7	187.2	223.0	201.1	198.8	210.1	221.2
as a percentage of sales	%	100.4	101.5	97.5	100.1	101.9	100.5	100.0	100.0	100.0
Material expenses	CHF mn	-86.3	-84.4	-75.0	-88.2	-106.4	-101.9	-103.1	-108.0	-112.8
as a percentage of sales	%	48.8	47.2	47.0	47.1	48.6	50.9	51.8	51.4	51.0
Personnel expenses	CHF mn	-33.0	-35.6	-32.0	-34.8	-39.6	-38.2	-38.2	-39.9	-41.6
as a percentage of sales	%	18.7	19.9	20.0	18.6	18.1	19.1	19.2	19.0	18.8
Other operating income	CHF mn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
as a percentage of sales	%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
EBITDA	CHF mn	30.6	32.3	23.6	37.3	42.4	31.0	28.1	30.9	33.7
as a percentage of sales	%	17.3	18.1	14.8	19.9	19.4	15.5	14.1	14.7	15.2
EBIT	CHF mn	18.5	18.6	-15.9	24.6	29.2	18.3	15.3	16.2	17.9
as a percentage of sales	%	10.4	10.4	-9.9	13.1	13.3	9.2	7.7	7.7	8.1
Financial result	CHF mn	-2.7	-2.7	-2.0	-1.8	-1.7	-2.2	-0.6	-0.6	-0.6
as a percentage of sales	%	-1.5	-1.5	-1.2	-0.9	-0.8	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3
EBT	CHF mn	15.8	15.9	-17.8	22.8	27.5	16.1	14.8	15.6	17.3
as a percentage of sales	%	8.9	8.9	-11.2	12.2	12.5	8.1	7.4	7.4	7.8
Income taxes	CHF mn	-5.5	-5.2	-1.8	-6.5	-1.1	-4.7	-4.3	-4.6	-5.1
Income tax rate	%	34.7	32.9	-10.2	28.6	3.9	29.3	29.3	29.3	29.3
Net income before minorities	CHF mn	10.3	10.7	-19.7	16.3	26.4	11.4	10.4	11.1	12.2
as a percentage of sales	%	5.8	6.0	-12.3	8.7	12.1	5.7	5.3	5.3	5.5
Minority interests	CHF mn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net income after minorities	CHF mn	10.3	10.7	-19.7	16.3	26.4	11.4	10.4	11.1	12.2
EPS reported	CHF	1.17	1.22	-2.23	1.85	3.00	1.30	1.19	1.26	1.39

Source: Company data, Baader Helvea Equity Research

Nabaltec

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
Net income	EUR mn	10.3	10.7	-19.7	16.3	26.4	11.4	10.4	11.1	12.2
Depreciation charges on fixed assets	EUR mn	12.1	13.7	39.4	12.7	13.2	12.6	12.8	14.7	15.8
Changes in pension provisions	EUR mn	0.1	0.2	0.3	-0.1	0.1	-0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net NWC change	EUR mn	-7.7	-4.7	6.5	-1.4	-7.0	-8.5	7.5	-5.0	-2.6
Operating adjustment factors	EUR mn	-0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cash flow from operations	EUR mn	16.1	22.4	24.3	33.2	32.4	16.5	31.3	21.3	26.0
Asset disposals (without leasing)	EUR mn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Capital spending on fixed assets	EUR mn	-27.1	-20.0	-10.3	-6.7	-10.8	-14.0	-30.0	-25.0	-15.0
Capital spending on financial assets	EUR mn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-14.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Acquisitions/consolidation	EUR mn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Adjustment factors	EUR mn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cash flow from investments	EUR mn	-27.1	-20.0	-10.3	-6.7	-25.7	-14.0	-30.0	-25.0	-15.0
Free cash flow	EUR mn	-11.1	2.3	14.0	26.4	6.7	2.5	1.3	-3.7	11.0
Inflow/outflow from interest-bearing debt	EUR mn	-1.0	0.0	-11.5	0.0	31.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Less previous year's dividend	EUR mn	-1.6	-1.8	-1.3	0.0	-2.2	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5	-2.9
Adjustment factors	EUR mn	-2.0	-2.0	-1.8	-1.4	-0.8	-0.9	-0.6	-0.6	-0.6
Cash flow from the financing sector	EUR mn	-4.6	-3.7	-14.6	-1.4	28.0	-3.4	-3.0	-3.0	-3.5
Changed currency relations, consolidation and other effects	EUR mn	0.1	0.1	-2.0	0.8	0.6	-0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cash and cash equivalents on 1/1	EUR mn	45.9	30.3	29.0	26.4	52.2	87.5	86.0	84.2	77.5
Changes in cash and cash equivalents	EUR mn	-15.7	-1.4	-0.6	25.0	34.7	-1.0	-1.7	-6.8	7.6
Cash and cash equivalents at FY end	EUR mn	30.3	29.0	26.4	52.2	87.5	86.0	84.2	77.5	85.0

Source: Company data, Baader Helvea Equity Research

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET

		2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
ASSETS
Fixed assets	EUR mn	149.0	156.1	124.5	120.4	134.4	119.9	137.1	147.4	146.6
Intangible assets	EUR mn	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.6	2.0	2.0
Property, plant and equipment	EUR mn	148.4	155.6	123.9	119.9	118.8	119.0	135.5	145.4	144.6
Other assets	EUR mn	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	15.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Current assets	EUR mn	46.6	51.8	44.6	46.4	59.1	74.7	69.7	71.6	75.4
Inventories	EUR mn	34.6	40.5	32.9	33.9	45.7	51.1	47.2	49.0	52.7
Accounts receivable	EUR mn	4.5	5.6	5.1	5.5	6.5	1.4	1.4	1.5	1.6
Other assets	EUR mn	7.5	5.7	6.5	7.0	7.0	22.2	21.1	21.1	21.1
Other financial assets	EUR mn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Deferred charges	EUR mn	0.0	2.7	3.7	2.1	1.0	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9
Balance sheet total	EUR mn	225.9	239.6	198.6	220.7	281.1	280.9	291.9	297.3	307.9
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity	EUR mn	95.8	98.9	76.8	96.5	133.5	141.8	149.8	158.4	167.7
Provisions	EUR mn	37.4	47.9	46.3	45.1	29.8	29.7	29.7	29.7	29.7
Pension provisions	EUR mn	36.1	46.4	44.5	43.3	28.0	27.9	27.9	27.9	27.9
Other provisions	EUR mn	1.3	1.6	1.8	1.8	1.9	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8
Liabilities	EUR mn	130.1	140.6	121.8	124.2	147.6	139.1	142.1	139.0	140.2
Financial debt	EUR mn	70.4	39.0	59.0	0.0	90.0	90.0	90.0	90.0	90.0
Trade payables	EUR mn	12.6	13.4	11.6	10.7	15.1	10.1	13.2	10.0	11.3
Other liabilities	EUR mn	9.1	8.4	4.4	9.2	11.9	8.3	8.3	8.3	8.3
Deferred charges	EUR mn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Balance sheet total	EUR mn	225.9	239.6	198.6	220.7	281.1	280.9	291.9	297.3	307.9

Source: Company data, Baader Helvea Equity Research

Key data

Nabaltec

Germany
Chemicals
Reuters: NTGG.DE	Bloomberg: NTG GY
Buy
Price on 13-May-24	EUR 15.20
Target price	EUR 20.00
High/Low (12M)	EUR 21.40/12.55
Market cap.	EUR mn 134

Company profile

Nabaltec is a leading supplier of aluminum hydroxide based functional fillers (mainly flame retardants) for the plastics industry and provides aluminum oxide based raw materials for the technical ceramics industries.

Divisions (2023)

Margin evolution

Divisional sales evolution

Sales vs. EBIT margin

Source: Company data, LSEG, Baader Helvea Equity Research

Analyst: Konstantin Wiechert +41 43 388 9213 kwiechert@helvea.com

FY 31 Dec.	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
Share data
EPS reported (EUR)	1.85	3.00	1.30	1.19	1.26	1.39
EPS adjusted (EUR)	1.85	3.00	1.30	1.19	1.26	1.39
Dividend (EUR)	0.25	0.28	0.28	0.28	0.33	0.38
Book value (EUR)	10.97	15.17	16.11	17.02	18.00	19.06
Free cash flow (EUR)	3.00	0.76	0.28	0.15	-0.42	1.26
Avg. no. of shares (mn)	8.8	8.8	8.8	8.8	8.8	8.8
Market cap. (avg./current; EUR mn)	283.9	243.2	180.0	133.8	133.8	133.8
Enterprise value (EUR mn)	290.9	246.4	185.0	140.5	147.2	139.7
Valuation	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
P/E adj. (x)	17.4	9.2	15.7	12.8	12.1	10.9
P/BV (x)	2.9	1.8	1.3	0.9	0.8	0.8
FCF/EV (%)	9.1	2.7	1.3	0.9	-2.5	7.9
FCF yield (%) (FCF/Mcap.)	9.3	2.8	1.4	1.0	-2.8	8.3
Dividend yield (%)	0.8	1.0	1.4	1.8	2.2	2.5
EV/Sales (x)	1.6	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.6
EV/EBITDA adj. (x)	7.8	5.8	6.0	5.0	4.8	4.1
EV/EBIT adj. (x)	11.9	8.4	10.1	9.2	9.1	7.8
EV/CE (x)	2.0	1.6	1.1	0.8	0.8	0.7
ROCE/WACC adj. (x)	1.7	1.9	1.2	0.9	0.9	1.0
Key company data	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
Sales growth (%)	17.2	17.0	-8.5	-0.7	5.7	5.3
EBITDA adj. growth (%)	58.3	13.6	-26.8	-9.4	9.9	9.0
EBITDA adj. margin (%)	19.9	19.4	15.5	14.1	14.7	15.2
EBIT adj. margin (%)	13.1	13.3	9.2	7.7	7.7	8.1
Net adj. margin (%)	8.7	12.1	5.7	5.3	5.3	5.5
Free cash flow margin (%)	14.1	3.1	1.2	0.7	-1.8	5.0
Payout ratio (%)	13.5	9.3	21.6	23.6	26.3	27.4
Gearing (%) (net debt/equity)	7.3	2.4	3.5	4.5	8.5	3.5
Net debt/EBITDA (x)	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.2
Equity ratio (x) (equity/total assets)	43.7	47.5	50.5	51.3	53.3	54.5
Capital employed (EUR mn)	149.1	156.5	162.3	172.5	187.9	189.7
ROCE adj. (%)	11.5	13.0	7.9	6.2	6.0	6.6
Income statement (EUR mn)	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
Turnover	187.0	218.8	200.1	198.8	210.1	221.2
EBITDA	37.3	42.4	31.0	28.1	30.9	33.7
EBITDA adj.	37.3	42.4	31.0	28.1	30.9	33.7
EBIT	24.6	29.2	18.3	15.3	16.2	17.9
EBIT adj.	24.6	29.2	18.3	15.3	16.2	17.9
EBT	22.8	27.5	16.1	14.8	15.6	17.3
Net profit after minorities	16.3	26.4	11.4	10.4	11.1	12.2
Net profit adj.	16.3	26.4	11.4	10.4	11.1	12.2
Balance sheet (EUR mn)	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
Non-current assets	123	135	121	138	148	147
thereof goodwill	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current assets	98	146	160	154	149	160
Total assets	221	281	281	292	297	308
Shareholders' equity	96	133	142	150	158	168
Total equity and liabilities	221	281	281	292	297	308
Net debt	7	3	5	7	13	6
Cash flow (EUR mn)	2021	2022	2023	2024E	2025E	2026E
Cash flow from operations	33.2	32.4	16.5	31.3	21.3	26.0
of which change in working capital	-1.4	-7.0	-8.5	7.5	-5.0	-2.6
Cash flow from investments	-6.7	-25.7	-14.0	-30.0	-25.0	-15.0
of which investment in fixed assets	-6.7	-10.8	-14.0	-30.0	-25.0	-15.0
Free cash flow	26.4	6.7	2.5	1.3	-3.7	11.0
Dividends paid	0.0	-2.2	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5	-2.9
Cash flow from financing activities	-1.4	28.0	-3.4	-3.0	-3.0	-3.5
Change in cash position	25.0	34.7	-1.0	-1.7	-6.8	7.6

COMPANY UPDATE

Nabaltec

Disclaimer

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COMPANY UPDATE

Nabaltec

B. POTENTIAL INTERESTS OR CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS

Art. 20 of the Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of 16 April 2014 in conjunction with Articles 5 and 6 of the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 requires Baader Bank AG to disclose relationships and circumstances that may reasonably be expected to impair the objectivity of the Research Document, including interests or conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the subject of this Research Document ("Key Factors". The following Key Factors also include any interests or conflicts of interest of any person belonging to the Group Companies that are (i) known, or reasonably expected to be known, to the persons involved in the production of the Research Document; (ii) known to persons who, although not involved in the production of the Research Document, have or could reasonably be expected to have, access to the Research Document prior to its completion, or (iii) of any person closely associated with the named author of the Research Document.

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Applicable Key Factors

Company	Key
Nabaltec	4, 5

Key Factors Specified by Art. 5 and 6 of the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No. 2016/958 of 9 March 2016

• Key 1: The Relevant Baader Helvea Group Europe Company, any other Group Company or the responsible analyst(s) named in this report own a net long or short position exceeding the threshold of 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the company that is the subject of the Research Document, calculated in accordance with Article 3 of Regulation (EU) No 236/2012 and with Chapter III and IV of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 918/20127.
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Company	Date	Rating	Currency Target price	Closing price as of	Analyst

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COMPANY UPDATE

Nabaltec

Rating categories:

The following is an explanation of the ratings, if any, included in this document.

Expected total return based on forecast dividend and 12-month price targets.

Rating	Upside/downside to the target price
Buy	>20%
Add	5%-20%
Reduce	-10% to 5%
Sell	<-10%

Research ratings key:

There are four possible ratings: Buy, Add, Reduce or Sell.

Examples of certain ratings:

Buy: A company that the analyst(s) named in this report deem(s) higher risk with a forecast dividend yield of 5% and price appreciation potential of 16%, generating a forecast total return of 21% over 12 months.

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We use three further categorizations for stocks in our coverage:

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COMPANY UPDATE

Nabaltec

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COMPANY UPDATE

Nabaltec

Notice to Recipients in the Principality of Monaco

This Research Document may only be offered or distributed, directly or indirectly, to Monaco banks duly licensed by the French "Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution" and fully licensed financial service provider companies regulated by the "Commission de Contrôle des Activités Financières". The Recipients declare being perfectly fluent in English and expressly waive the possibility of a French translation of this Research Document: Les destinataires du présent document reconnaissent être à même d'en prendre connaissance en langue anglaise et renoncent expressément à une traduction française.

Notice to Recipients in New Zealand

This Research Document may only be distributed by Baader Helvea Limited and Baader Bank AG to wholesale clients as defined in section 5C (Wholesale Clients) of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (NZ) (FAA). Both Baader Helvea Limited and Baader Bank AG can (i) provide financial adviser services to Wholesale Clients as exempt providers, and (ii) provide broking services under the FAA to persons who are Wholesale Clients and, to the extent that the broking services comprise custodial services as defined in the FAA, are also persons falling within the categories set out in clause 11 of the Financial Advisers (Custodians of FMCA Financial Products) Regulations 2014. Persons who are not Wholesale Clients (as referred to in the FAA) may not act upon or rely on the information contained in this Research Document. Any investment or investment activity to which this Research Document relates is available only to Wholesale Clients and will be engaged in only with Wholesale Clients. You should speak to your legal advisor to confirm whether you are a Wholesale Client.

Baader Bank AG discloses that it is regulated by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht of Germany (BaFin) under German laws, which differ from New Zealand laws. Baader Helvea Limited discloses that it is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (FCA) under UK laws which differ from New Zealand laws. Neither Baader Helvea Limited nor Baader Bank AG are required to be registered under the Financial Service Providers (Registration and Dispute Resolution) Act 2008 (NZ) (FSPR) due to the territorial scope of the FSPR.

This Research Document has not been and will not be lodged with the New Zealand Registrar of Financial Service Providers. This Research Document is not a product disclosure statement for the purposes of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (NZ) nor an investment statement or prospectus for the purposes of the Securities Act 1978 (NZ). The information contained in this Research Document is general information only.

Notice to Recipients in South Africa

Baader Helvea Limited is exempted from the provisions of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (FAIS) and is not a registered financial services provider in terms of FAIS. Baader Helvea Limited will provide clients with confirmation of the exemption on request.

Notice to Recipients in Switzerland

This document has been prepared without regard to the disclosure standards for prospectuses under art 652a or art 1156 of the Swiss Federal Code of Obligations ("CO"), the Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes ("CISA") or the disclosure rules of any stock exchange or regulated trading facility in Switzerland, and does neither constitute a prospectus under such laws, nor a similar communication within the meaning of art 752 CO, nor a simplified prospectus under the CISA.

Notice to Recipients in Taiwan

None of the Group Companies is licensed by the Financial Supervisory Commission ("FSC") of Taiwan to conduct the securities advisory or consulting business in Taiwan, The distribution of this Research Document from the jurisdiction outside of Taiwan has not been registered with or approved by the FSC. Neither this Research Document nor the information contained in it is an offer or is intended to be an offer to make with any person, or to induce or attempt to induce any person to enter into or to offer (or intent to offer) to enter into any agreement for or with a view to acquiring, disposing of, subscribing for or underwriting securities.

Notice to Recipients in the United Kingdom

This communication is directed to persons in the United Kingdom who (i) are reasonably believed to be such persons as are described in Article 19 ("investment professionals") or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) ("high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.") of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (ii) are persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as "relevant persons"). Persons who are not relevant persons may not act upon or rely on the information contained in this communication. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.

Notice to Recipients in the United States

This Research Document has been prepared outside the United States by a Baader Helvea Group Europe Company (the "Preparing Group Company"). Neither the Preparing Group Company nor any other Baader Helvea Group Europe Company is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a broker-dealer in the United States or a member of the Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"). Baader Helvea Inc. (a Group Company that is a registered U.S. broker-dealer and a member of FINRA) did not contribute to the preparation of this Research Document. This Research Document has been prepared and reviewed by research analysts employed by the Preparing Group Company, who are not associated persons or employees of Baader Helvea Inc., are not registered or qualified as research analysts with FINRA, and are not subject to FINRA rules.

This Research Document may be distributed in the United States only:

• 1. by a Baader Helvea Group Europe Company to "major US institutional investors" (as defined in, and pursuant to the exemption provided by, Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Neither any Baader Helvea Group Europe Company nor any major US institutional investor receiving this Research Document may distribute it to any other person in the United States; or
• 1. as affiliate research by Baader Helvea Inc. When distributing this Research Document in the United States as affiliate research, Baader Helvea Inc. accepts responsibility under applicable U.S. laws and regulations (including FINRA Rule 2711) for its content. Additional information on this report is available upon request from Baader Helvea Inc.

Regardless of whether this Research Document is distributed by a Baader Helvea Group Europe Company or by Baader Helvea Inc., orders utilizing the services of the Group Companies for the purchase or sale of the securities that are the subject of this Research Document may be given only to Baader Helvea Inc.

Other Jurisdictions

The distribution of this Research Document in any other jurisdiction may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this Research Document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. This Research Document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of, or located in, any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

For additional important legal information, please visit the following link: https://www.baaderbank.de/disclaimer\_research.html.

Document for the exclusive use of visitor(baader_unknow@alphavalue.eu)

Baader Helvea Equity Research COMPANY UPDATE

Nabaltec

Contacts

Volker Bosse, CEFA Markus Mayer Head of Research Head of Capital Markets +49 89 5150 1815 +49 89 5150 1818 volker.bosse@baaderbank.de markus.mayer@baaderbank.de

EQUITY RESEARCH

Capital Goods
Capital Goods (Switzerland)	Michael Roost	+41 43 388 9261	mroost@helvea.com
Capital Goods (Switzerland)	Zana Mamelli	+41 43 388 9215	zmamelli@helvea.com
Capital Goods	Christian Obst, CEFA	+49 89 5150 1805	christian.obst@baaderbank.de
Capital Goods (Germany)	Peter Rothenaicher	+49 89 5150 1817	peter.rothenaicher@baaderbank.de
Chemicals	Konstantin Wiechert	+41 43 388 9213	kwiechert@helvea.com
	Andreas von Arx	+41 43 388 9257	avonarx@helvea.com
	Leonildo Delgado, PhD	+41 43 388 9226	ldelgado@helvea.com
Consumer
Consumer Durables /	Volker Bosse, CEFA	+49 89 5150 1815	volker.bosse@baaderbank.de
Food Retail / Non-Food Retail
Food & Beverages	Andreas von Arx	+41 43 388 9257	avonarx@helvea.com
Financial Services	Gerhard Schwarz, CEFA	+49 89 5150 1812	gerhard.schwarz@baaderbank.de
	Andreas von Arx	+41 43 388 9257	avonarx@helvea.com
Metals & Mining	Christian Obst, CEFA	+49 89 5150 1805	christian.obst@baaderbank.de
Pharma	Leonildo Delgado, PhD	+41 43 388 9226	ldelgado@helvea.com
	Konstantin Wiechert	+41 43 388 9213	kwiechert@helvea.com
Real Estate	Andre Remke, CFA	+49 89 5150 1816	andre.remke@baaderbank.de
	Co-Head Equity Research
	Andreas von Arx	+41 43 388 9257	avonarx@helvea.com
Technology
Software / IT Services / Support Services	Knut Woller, CEFA	+49 89 5150 1807	knut.woller@baaderbank.de
Transport	Christian Obst, CEFA	+49 89 5150 1805	christian.obst@baaderbank.de
Utilities	Andreas von Arx	+41 43 388 9257	avonarx@helvea.com
	Rene Rückert	+49 89 5150 1896	rene.rueckert@baaderbank.de
EQUITY STRATEGY	Gerhard Schwarz, CEFA	+49 89 5150 1812	gerhard.schwarz@baaderbank.de
	Head of Equity Strategy
EQUITY SALES	DERIVATIVES SALES	EQUITY SALES TRADING
Frankfurt +49 69 1388 1357	Munich +49 89 5150 1990	Frankfurt +49 69 1388 1355
London +44 20 7054 7100		London +44 20 7054 7100
Munich +49 89 5150 1850		Munich +49 89 5150 1870
Zurich +41 43 388 9200		New York +1 212 935 5150
		Zurich +41 43 388 9200
For North American clients:
New York +1 212 935 5150

PUBLICATION ADDRESSES

Baader Bank AG Baader Helvea AG Equity Research Equity Research Weihenstephaner Strasse 4 Freigutstrasse 12 85716 Unterschleissheim, Germany 8002 Zurich, Switzerland

T +49 89 5150 1810 T +41 43 388 9250