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Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG — Earnings Release 2010
Jan 10, 2011
6208_ip_2011-01-10_572771b2-31bd-4320-84a3-d76c153ceed0.pdf
Earnings Release
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STRINGENT EXECUTION DELIVERING SUSTAINABLE EARNINGS
January 2011
as strategic debt. 4 Earnings before interest expenses, tax and depreciation divided by finance costs.
| Financial highlights Q1–3 2010 earnings outlook 2010 |
Sound financial development allowing for increased | |
|---|---|---|
| Munich Re (Group) | ||
| Pleasing net result of €1,955m in Q1–3 2010 (€761m in Q3 standalone) Ongoing strong investment result and low claims in Q3 Annualised RoRaC of 14.5% |
Shareholders' equity further strengthened to €24.1bn Share buy-back programme on track: €475m1 completed since AGM in April 2010 |
High investment result Annualised RoI of 5.0% in Q1–3 2010 based on high disposal gains and write-ups as portfolio and duration management continues to prove beneficial |
| Reinsurance | Primary insurance | Munich Health |
| Good Q3 mitigating significant claims in Q1–2 2010 Benign claims development in p-c in Q3 (combined ratio in Q3 standalone: 93.8%) |
Good operating performance €301m consolidated ERGO result in Q1–3 2010 confirming positive trend |
Resilient operating result Consolidation process well on track Position in the US medicare market strengthened by the acquisition of Windsor |
| 1 As at 31 October 2010. | Munich Re – January 2011 13 |
| Outlook Munich Re to continue to place high emphasis on sustainable earnings in a low-yield environment |
|
|---|---|
| Outlook 2010 | First indication 2011 |
| CAPITAL REPATRIATION | RORAC |
| Continuation of share buy-back programme of | 15% a real challenge given sustainably very low |
| up to €1bn until AGM 20111 | interest rates, while economicly balanced |
| GROSS PREMIUMS WRITTEN | business and investment portfolio stabilises |
| €44–46bn2 | profitability and reduces cost of capital |
| RETURN ON INVESTMENT | RETURN ON INVESTMENT |
| ~4.5% (prev. slightly >4%) | Assuming insignificant non-recurring |
| NET INCOME ~€2.4bn3 (prev. >€2.0bn) |
gains/losses and a continuation of the low interest-rate environment, RoI expected to drop below 4% |
| COMBINED RATIO – REINSURANCE P-C | PROFIT |
| 97% over-the-cycle – in 2010 slightly below | Expectation for net result to stand – |
| 100% expected4 | Net result 2011 now presumably slightly below |
| COMBINED RATIO – PRIMARY INSURANCE P-C | the increased outlook for 20105 while higher |
| ~95% | technical result expected |
| 1 Full execution remains subject to developments in the capital markets and the general economic environment. Until 31 October Munich Re repurchased own shares amounting to €475m. 2 Thereof €23–24bn in reinsurance, €17–18bn in primary insurance and approx. €5bn in Munich Health (all on basis of segmental figures). 3 Assuming stable capital markets and FX developments as well as normal claims activity in Q4. 4 Presuming normal claims activity in Q4. 5 Assuming normal claims activity and generally stable prices in reinsurance. |
Munich Re – January 2011 14 |
| Summary | |
|---|---|
| Value-adding integrated business model covers full value chain of risks |
|
| Diversification and sophisticated risk management are cornerstones of our strategy |
|
| Excellent financial strength allows participation in market opportunities |
|
| Capital management and cycle management are key to our future success |
|
| Munich Re – January 2011 15 |
| Backup | |
|---|---|
| Group | 18 |
| Reinsurance | 39 |
| Primary insurance | 49 |
| International Health | 56 |
| Financial reporting Q1–3 2010 | 63 |
| Munich Re – January 2011 16 |
| Munich Re and our shares | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich Re | 2009 | 2008 | 20071 | 20061 | 2005 | |
| Gross premiums written | €bn | 41.4 | 37.8 | 37.3 | 37.4 | 38.2 |
| Operating result | €m | 4,721 | 3,834 | 5,573 | 5,877 | 4,156 |
| Taxes on income | €m | 1,264 | 1,372 | 801 | 1,648 | 1,014 |
| Consolidated result | €m | 2,564 | 1,579 | 3,923 | 3,519 | 2,751 |
| Thereof attributable to minority interests | €m | 43 | 24 | 83 | 94 | 72 |
| Investments | €bn | 182.2 | 174.9 | 176.2 | 176.9 | 177.2 |
| Return on equity | % | 11.8 | 7.0 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 12.5 |
| Equity | €bn | 22.3 | 21.1 | 25.3 | 26.3 | 24.3 |
| Off-balance-sheet reserves2 | €bn | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Net technical provisions | €bn | 163.9 | 157.1 | 152.4 | 153.9 | 154.0 |
| Staff at 31 December | 47,249 | 44,209 | 38,634 | 37,210 | 37,953 | |
| Our shares | 2009 | 2008 | 20071 | 2006 | 2005 | |
| Earnings per share | € | 12.95 | 7.74 | 17.83 | 15.05 | 11.74 |
| Dividend per share | € | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 | 3.10 |
| Amount distributed | €m | 1.088 | 1,073 | 1,124 | 988 | 707 |
| Share price at 31 December | € | 108.67 | 111.00 | 132.94 | 130.42 | 114.38 |
| Market capitalisation at 31 December3 | €bn | 21.5 | 22.9 | 29.0 | 29.9 | 26.3 |
| No. of shares at year-end (ex own shares) | m | 191.9 | 195.7 | 207.8 | 225.6 | 228.0 |
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010ytd1 | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share buy-back | 250 | 2,303 | 1,387 | 406 | 1,125 | 5,471 | |
| Dividend | 707 | 988 | 1,124 | 1,073 | 1,072 | 4,964 | |
| Total amounts | 707 | 1,238 | 3,427 | 2,460 | 1,478 | 1,125 | 10,435 |
| High dividend yields and share buy-backs resulting in a cash yield of around 10%2 – Share buy-back programme up to the 2011 AGM well underway |
| Backup: Group – Economic risk capital as of 31.12.2009 | Breakdown of Group required economic risk capital (ERC) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk category1 | Group | RI | PI | Div. Explanation | ||
| Year end €bn |
2008 | 2009 | 2009 | 2009 | 2009 | |
| Property-casualty2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 0.5 | –0.4 Lower exposure in Storm Europe | |
| Life and health | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | –0.4 Higher interest-rates reduce present value of trend risks | |
| Market | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 5.3 | –2.5 See separate slide | |
| Credit3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 Higher exposures in corporate bond investments and model refinements in order to mitigate potential pro-cyclical effects |
|
| Operational risk | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | –0.3 Separate quantification of scenarios for RI and PI | |
| Simple sum | 21.5 | 22.7 | 18.4 | 7.9 | –3.6 | |
| Diversification effect4 | −5.0 | –5.3 | –4.9 | –1.2 | – | |
| Sum ERC | 16.5 | 17.4 | 13.5 | 6.7 | –2.8 Net of model changes, ERC up €0.4bn | |
Increase in ERC reflects the slight re-risking in market and credit risk
1 Risk categories broadly based on refined "Fischer II" risk categories recommended for standardised industry disclosures.
4 The measured diversification effect depends on the risk categories considered and the explicit modelling of fungibility constraints.
2 Contains credit insurance and reinsurance. 3 Default and migration risk.
| Summary of economic capital disclosure | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Position as at 31 December 2009 €bn |
31.12.2009 | 31.12.2008 | |
| Available financial resources (AFR) |
28.4 | 28.4 | 24.6 |
| Economic risk capital1 | 9.9 7.5 |
17.4 | 16.5 |
| Economic capital buffer | 6.2 4.8 |
11.0 | 8.1 |
| Economic capital buffer after share buy-back and dividends2 |
4.5 4.8 |
9.3 | 7.0 |
| Solvency II capital Hybrid capital |
|||
| Enhanced economic capital position driven by remarkable AFR increase 1 Solvency II capital based on VaR 99.5%, Munich Re internal risk model based on 175% of Solvency II capital. |
| QIS4 | CEIOPS' Final Advice | QIS5 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPIFP1 | Tier 1 without being explicitly determined |
Tier 3 | Tier 1 but have to be calculated and the proposed methodology involves massive shortcomings EPIFP are still in danger of being inappropriately classified as Tier 2 or 3 in Solvency II |
| Contract boundaries |
No specific treatment |
The definition of contract boundaries contains too conservative aspects |
For many long-term insurance policies, QIS5 will only take into account the first year for the determination of the technical provisions and the risk |
| Risk margin | No allowance for diversification No unavoidable market risk |
No allowance for diversification Covers unavoidable market risk |
No allowance for diversification between legal entities on group level Covers unavoidable market risk which should be negligible but proposed formula may lead to extreme results |
| Hybrid capital |
No grandfathering | Grandfathering not addressed Too restrictive requirements for classification better than Tier 3 |
Generous grandfathering Adequate for QIS5 but dangerous for Solvency II as it opens the door for regulatory arbitrage |
| Intangible assets |
No recognition | Tier 3 and 100% capital charge | Tier 1 for intangibles other than goodwill but 80% capital charge This arbitrarily pulls the solvency ratio towards 125% |
| Backup: Group – Solvency II: Update | Assessment of key topics in QIS5 (II) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital requirements | |||
| QIS4 | CEIOPS' Final Advice | QIS5 | |
| Non-life underwriting risk |
Calibration is more conservative than internal model esp. for reinsurers.1 Limited recognition of undertaking specific parameters and geographical diversification. |
Broad strengthening over QIS4 calibration (e.g. up to 50% of non-life risk factors) No recognition of undertaking specific parameters and geographical diversification |
ƒ Undertaking-specific scenarios no longer allowed in the cat risk sub-module in QIS5 ƒ Broad reduction of CEIOPS' final advice, but still more conservative than QIS4 ƒ Less geographical diversification recognised ƒ Undertaking-specific parameters allowed in QIS5 but presumably only after some sort of certification in Solvency II ƒ Better recognition of non-proportional reinsurance, but too restrictive preconditions applying for them ƒ New lapse risk in non-life is burdensome and presumably not material |
| Volatility risk |
Not included | Interest rate and equity volatility included |
Not included. Volatility risk can be material for some undertakings and should be included |
| Minimum capital require ments |
Cf. QIS5 | Cf. QIS5 | ƒ No recognition of diversification benefits ƒ No recognition of loss-absorbing capacity of deferred taxes ƒ No direct calculation according to internal model Î The MCR will regularly be 45% of the SCR |
| QIS5 specifications are more onerous than QIS4. Capital requirements expected to increase. Reinsurance still expected to benefit from latest developments |
|||
| 1 Cf. CRO Forum QIS4 Benchmark Study, Slide 34, 2008. | Munich Re – January 2011 31 |
| ALM process | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liabilities | Replicating portfolio |
Restricted neutral position |
Benchmark portfolio |
Active asset management |
| Determining the expected technical cash flows of our operating business |
Calculation of risk minimal, investable asset portfolio, reflecting the capital market sensitivity of the liabilities |
Risk minimal replication of liabilities and economic surplus Compliance with all legal and statutory requirements |
Including strategic holdings determining an optimal, well diversified asset portfolio reflecting our risk preference |
Providing MEAG with risk capital to add value through tactical deviations from the given Benchmark Portfolio |
| Best-estimate projections |
Cash-flow and currency-matching |
Compliance with all legal and statutory requirements |
Long-term invest ment strategy with dynamic asset allocation overlays |
Asset management skills |
| Transaction Shore Re Ltd. |
Closing 07/2010 |
Maturity 07/2013 |
Volume US\$ 96m |
Perils covered Hurricane US |
ƒ Generation of risk-based and fee income |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnston Re Ltd. | 05/2010 | 05/2013 | US\$ 305m | Hurricane US | ƒ Munich Re is active investor in primary and |
|
| For clients | Lakeside Re II Ltd. | 12/2009 | 01/2013 | US\$ 225m | Earthquake California | secondary market |
| Muteki Ltd. | 05/2008 | 05/2011 | US\$ 300m | Earthquake Japan | ƒ Improvement of own risk/return |
|
| MIDORI Ltd. | 10/2007 | 10/2012 | US\$ 260m | Earthquake Japan | profile and cost efficiency | |
| For clients & Munich Re´s book |
Ianus Capital Ltd. | 06/2009 | 06/2012 | €50m | Windstorm Europe & Earthquake Turkey |
ƒ Utilization of unexhausted risk budgets |
| For | EOS Wind Ltd. | 05/2010 | 05/2014 | US\$ 80m | Hurricane US & Windstorm Europe |
ƒ Establishment of placement entity licensed in EU and Switzerland |
| Munich Re's book |
Queen Street Ltd. | 03/2008 | 03/2011 | €170m | Windstorm Europe | ƒ Offering one-stop shopping |
| Nathan Ltd. | 02/2008 | 01/2013 | US\$ 100m | Extreme mortality | to clients as sponsors |
| Reinsurance1 | 2009 | 2008 | 20072 | 20062 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross premiums written | €bn | 24.8 | 21.9 | 21.5 | 22.2 | 22.3 |
| Investments | €bn | 78.5 | 78.4 | 81.9 | 85.0 | 87.0 |
| Net technical provisions | €bn | 55.3 | 55.8 | 55.5 | 59.6 | 63.4 |
| Reserve ratio property-casualty | % | 272.5 | 271.9 | 272.0 | 280.9 | 295.8 |
| Large and very large losses (net)3 | €m | 1,157 | 1,507 | 1,126 | 585 | 3,134 |
| Thereof natural catastrophe losses3 | €m | 196 | 832 | 634 | 139 | 2,603 |
| Combined ratio property-casualty | % | 95.3 | 99.4 | 96.4 | 92.6 | 111.7 |
| Thereof natural catastrophe losses3 | %-pts. | 1,4 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 19.2 |
2 Adjusted pursuant to IAS 8. 3 Previous years adjusted owing to a change in methodology.
Faster than expected recovery of financial markets led to strengthening of (re)insurers balance sheets Market environment Overall more competitive market environment after recovery of financial markets Backup: Reinsurance – Reinsurance property-casualty
- Slightly decreasing price development on primary as well as reinsurance markets globally
- Negotiations significantly influenced by recent loss experience in individual segments and/or markets
Competitors Supply
- Increasing capacity and thus no constraints in all lines of business
- Ancillary decrease in available business leads to increased level of competition. However, in general reasonable behaviour of reinsurers
- In some segments, reinsurers with lower security aimed to increase shares or get lead positions
Clients Demand
- Cost pressure on primary insurers also affects reinsurance budgets and buying behaviour driving overall market trends
- Security of reinsurers still not adequately reflected, few exceptions with respect to solvency relief business
Munich Re – January 2011 40
| Backup: Reinsurance – Reinsurance property-casualty | Total YTD renewals 2010 – Changes in premium | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | 100 | –16.0 | 84.0 | 0.03 | 11.4 | 95.4 |
| €m | 10,693 | 1,715 | 8,977 | 3 | 1,223 | 10,203 |
| Change in premium: | –4.6% | |||||
| ƒ Thereof price change: ƒ Thereof change in exposure our share: |
–0.1% –4.5% |
|||||
| Total renewable business from 1 July 09 |
Cancelled | Renewed | Increase on renewable business |
New business | Estimated outcome | |
| Munich Re – January 2011 |
| Backup: Reinsurance – Business potential Requests for capital relief deals |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drivers of demand | Reinsurance solutions provide advantages | |||||||
| Investment losses and decreased capital base |
Demand for surplus relief |
Capacity with high security | ||||||
| increased, in addition capital market currently |
Immediate risk capital relief | |||||||
| Higher risk exposure and risk capital needs |
with limited capacity |
Specific requirements can be addressed in tailor-made transactions |
||||||
| Risk appetite for transactions reflected in underwriting policy | ||||||||
| Focus on transactions with transfer of insurance risks |
Limit transactions with significant credit risk |
Caution with outflow of liquidity |
Avoidance of risks highly correlated to recession |
|||||
| Focused and differentiated capture of opportunities in life and non-life reinsurance | ||||||||
| Munich Re – January 2011 43 |
| Rank | Company | Country | Net reinsurance premiums written |
|---|---|---|---|
| US\$ m | |||
| 1 | Munich Re | Germany | 2009 33,705 |
| 2 | Swiss Re | Switzerland | 22,897 |
| 3 | Hannover Re | Germany | 13,639 |
| 4 | Berkshire Hathaway Re | U.S. | 12,362 |
| 5 | Lloyd's1, 2 | U.K. | 9,734 |
| 6 | SCOR SE | France | 8,315 |
| 7 | Reinsurance Group of America Inc. | U.S. | 5,725 |
| 8 | Transatlantic Holdings Inc. | U.S. | 3,986 |
| 9 | Partner Re3 | Bermuda | 3,949 |
| 10 | Everest Re | Bermuda | 3,930 |
| 11 | Korean Re | Korea | 2,494 |
| 12 | Tokio Marine Group2 | Japan | 2,243 |
| 13 | Transamerica Re (AEGON) | U.S. | 2,014 |
| 14 | Mapfre Re | Spain | 2,007 |
| 15 | XL Re Ltd. | Bermuda | 2,003 |
| 16 | General Ins. Corp. of India | India | 1,950 |
| 17 | Odyssey Re | U.S. | 1,894 |
| 18 | AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd. | Bermuda | 1,791 |
| 19 | QBE Insurance Group Ltd. | Australia | 1,721 |
| 20 | Caisse Central de Réassurance | France | 1,716 |
| Total Top 20 | 138,075 |
| Backup: Primary insurance – Key figures Overview |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary insurance1 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
| Gross premiums written | €bn | 17.5 | 17.0 | 17.3 | 16.7 | 17.6 |
| Investments | €bn | 119.5 | 114.0 | 109.3 | 107.4 | 105.9 |
| Net technical provisions | €bn | 108.7 | 101.4 | 96.9 | 94.3 | 90.8 |
| Reserve ratio property-casualty | % | 125.6 | 118.8 | 121.4 | 124.9 | 113.1 |
| Combined ratio property-casualty | % | 93.1 | 90.9 | 93.4 | 90.8 | 93.1 |
| ERGO – Gross premiums written 2009 by region | ERGO – New business 2009 by distribution channels | |||||
| % Turkey |
Rest of World | % Tied agents |
Direct | |||
| 2% | 8% | 61% | 12% | |||
| Poland 4% |
Banks | |||||
| Belgium | 5% | |||||
| 4% | ||||||
| Spain | ||||||
| 3% | ||||||
| Italy 3% |
Germany 76% |
Other 3% |
Broker 19% |
|||
| 1 Adjusted pursuant to IAS 8. | Munich Re – January 2011 | 48 |
| Backup: International Health – Integrated Group strategy Business model flexibility across the health risk value chain |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich Health business models |
Example | Risk-taking Financial Admini Service stration Sales protection |
Risk management Medical Network Health mgmt mgmt supply |
||
| Reinsurance – Traditional |
ƒ Proportional ƒ Non-proportional |
||||
| Reinsurance – Non-traditional |
ƒ Capital relief reinsurance ƒ Consultative reinsurance |
||||
| Integrated reinsurance |
ƒ MedNet model | ||||
| Primary insurance | ƒ Daman (UAE) ƒ DKV Belgium ƒ Sterling (USA) |
Market-specific | |||
| Integrated delivery system |
ƒ DKV Seguros (Spain) | ||||
| Parts of the value chain covered. | Munich Re – January 2011 58 |
| Backup: International Health – Portfolio management Portfolio management – Achieve balance between growth, harvesting and reshaping activities |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levers | Strategy | Details | ||||
| Growth | Leverage our flexibility in the health risk value chain to address market, specific needs – from reinsurance to health management Profitable top-line growth by leveraging our capital strength |
ƒ Go Client initiative – professionalise sales approach globally (sales push, client management) ƒ Access to capital as core value proposition ƒ Replication of successful business models/ products/services via global expert networks ƒ Focus on organic growth, opportunistic M&A strategy ƒ Investment in JV start-up, e.g. Apollo Munich in fast growing Indian market |
||||
| Harvest | Increase profitability through process optimisation and sophistication in care and medical cost management |
ƒ Efficiency improvement initiatives (e.g. fraud, abuse, claims management at DKV Seguros) ƒ Consolidation of Daman operations following strong membership growth in the last years (e.g. disease management) |
||||
| Reshape | Redefine business strategy, responding to regulatory or market changes; realise cost efficiencies; restructure portfolio |
ƒ Turnaround programme at Sterling to align with regulatory changes ƒ Acquisition of Windsor Health Group |
||||
| Munich Re – January 2011 60 |
| Backup: International Health – Geographical split Globally diversified portfolio balancing primary insurance and reinsurance business |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional breakdown – GWP 2009 | ||||||||
| Asia/Pacific (APAC) | North America (NA) | |||||||
| 2.8% 24.5% |
51.5% Northern Europe/ Central Europe (NECE) GWP €4.0bn |
|||||||
| Middle East/ | Southern Europe/ | |||||||
| Africa (MEA) | Latin America (SELA) | |||||||
| 5.1% | 16.1% | |||||||
| Business volume increase in 2009 across regions | ||||||||
| NA: | High volume reflects global health expenditure share in North America | |||||||
| SELA: | Strong presence in Spain (DKV Seguros) | |||||||
| MEA: | Regional expansion, strong UAE presence | |||||||
| NECE: | Balanced re- and primary insurance business volume with strong market presence | |||||||
| APAC: | Expansion with current focus on reinsurance | |||||||
| Note: Minority shares, e.g. Daman, Apollo Munich Health Insurance excluded from GWP figures. | Munich Re – January 2011 61 |
| Backup: Financial reporting Q1–3 2010 – Overview | Strong investment result compensates for higher claims | |
|---|---|---|
| GROUP | GROUP | GROUP |
| Gross premiums written | Operating result | Consolidated result |
| €m | €m | €m |
| Q1–3 | Q1–3 | Q1–3 |
| 31,048 | 3,321 | 1,784 |
| 2009 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Q1–3 | Q1–3 | Q1–3 |
| 34,060 | 3,367 | 1,955 |
| 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
| Substantial organic growth in | Investment result more than | Outlook net income 2010 |
| addition to positive FX effects | offsets impact of higher claims | increased to ~€2.4bn |
| REINSURANCE | PRIMARY INSURANCE | MUNICH HEALTH |
| Consolidated result | Consolidated result | Consolidated result |
| €m | €m | €m |
| Q1–3 | Q1–3 | Q1–3 |
| 1,869 | 95 | –1 |
| 2009 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Q1–3 | Q1–3 | Q1–3 |
| 1,659 | 432 | 57 |
| 2010 | 2010 | 2010 |
| Significant impact of higher | All segments achieving | Pleasant result – 2009 burdened |
| claims in property-casualty | increased results | by Sterling goodwill impairment |
| Munich Re – January 2011 |
| Total €m |
Total | Regular premiums |
Single premiums |
APE1 | Comments | ƒ Trend away from regular premiums and towards single premiums holds true for German and |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1–3 2009 |
1,804 | 344 | 1,460 | 490 | ƒ Germany | international business | |||
| Q1–3 2010 |
2,247 | 327 | 1,920 | 519 | ƒ Strong growth in traditional annuity business ƒ Total new business (regular premiums plus single premiums) up by 28.5% |
||||
| ∆ | 24.6% | –4.9% | 31.5% | 5.9% | and Belgium | ƒ Strong growth in Poland (especially bancassurance) | |||
| Germany | International | ||||||||
| €m | Total | Regular premiums |
Single premiums |
APE1 | €m | Total | Regular premiums |
Single premiums |
APE1 |
| Q1–3 2009 |
1,171 | 228 | 943 | 322 | Q1–3 2009 |
633 | 116 517 |
168 | |
| Q1–3 2010 |
1,505 | 216 | 1,289 | 345 | Q1–3 2010 |
742 | 111 | 631 | 174 |
| ∆ | 28.5% | –5.3% | 36.7% | 7.1% | ∆ | 17.2% | –4.3% | 22.1% | 3.6% |
| Backup: Financial reporting Q1–3 2010 – Investment result Substantially increased investment result driven by beneficial strategic investment decisions |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €m | Q1–3 2010 | Return1 | €m | Q1–3 2009 | Return1 | |
| Regular income | 5,844 | 4.0% | 5,704 | 4.2% | ||
| Write-ups/write-downs of investments |
290 | 0.2% | –838 | –0.6% | ||
| Gains/losses on the disposal of investments |
1,409 | 1.0% | 1,069 | 0.8% | ||
| Other income/expenses | –262 | –0.2% | –143 | –0.1% | ||
| Investment result | 7,281 | 5.0%2 | 5,792 | 4.3%2 | ||
| ƒ Regular income: Slight increase in absolute terms due to higher asset base and cautious investments in higher yielding fixed-interest securities (e.g. longer durations and investment in loans) compensating for lower reinvestment rates |
||||||
| ƒ Write-ups/write-downs: Strong improvement driven by write-ups on swaptions (increase of ~€800m) as a result of declined interest levels; lower write-downs on equities due to recovered capital markets |
||||||
| ƒ Gains on disposal: High contribution from sale of corporate, government and covered bonds at relatively low interest-rate levels and narrowed credit spreads and gains of interest-rate futures |
||||||
| 1 Return on quarterly weighted investments (market values) in % p.a. 2 Total return on investment Q1–3 2010 (incl. change in on- and off-balance-sheet reserves): 9.2% (7.3%). |
Munich Re – January 2011 |
| Backup: Financial reporting Q1–3 2010 – Investments – Fixed-income portfolio Continued emphasis on highly rated credit risks |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating classification of fixed-income portfolio1 % |
B and | |||||||
| AAA | AA | A | BBB | BB | worse | NR | Total | |
| Government/ Semi-government |
59 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 2 | – | – | 100 |
| Pfandbriefe/Covered bonds | 85 | 14 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 1 | 100 |
| Banks | 8 | 17 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 352 | 100 |
| Corporates | 2 | 11 | 39 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 100 |
| Structured products | 81 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100 |
| Loans to policyholders/ Mortgage loans |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 100 | 100 |
| Total | 55 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 100 |
| 1 Economic view – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. 2 Including cash positions and shares in funds which are not rated. As at 30 September 2010. |
Munich Re – January 2011 | 74 |
| Backup: Financial reporting Q1–3 2010 – Investments – Fixed-income portfolio Approx. 65% invested in eurozone, absorbable exposure to "PIIGS" countries |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geographic classification of fixed-income portfolio1 | ||||||||||
| % | Germany | France | UK | "PIIGS" | CEE | Rest of Europe |
USA | Canada | Rest of world |
Total |
| Government/ Semi-government |
31 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 100 |
| Pfandbriefe/ Covered bonds |
44 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Banks | 40 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 100 |
| Corporates | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 50 | 5 | 6 | 100 |
| Structured products |
3 | 1 | 9 | 14 | – | 9 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| Loans to policyholders/ Mortgage loans |
99 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1 | 100 |
| Total | 35 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 100 |
| 1 Economic view – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. As at 30 September 2010. |
Munich Re – January 2011 | 75 |
| Structured products portfolio (at market values): Split by rating and region | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €m | AAA | AA | A | BBB | <bbb< th=""> | NR | USA + RoW | Europe | Total | Market to-par value |
NR | USA + RoW |
Europe | Total | Market to-par value |
|
| ABS | Consumer-related ABS1 | 755 | 80 | 91 | 3 | – | 13 | 597 | 345 | 942 | 101% | |||||
| Corporate-related ABS2 | 173 | 116 | 40 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 343 | 346 | 95% | ||||||
| Subprime HEL | 21 | – | 23 | – | 4 | – | 48 | – | 48 | 95% | ||||||
| CDO/ CLN |
Subprime-related | – | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | |||||
| Non-subprime-related | 71 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 0 | 170 | 170 | 81% | ||||||
| MBS | Agency | 2,130 | 84 | – | – | – | – | 2,214 | – | 2,214 | 99% | |||||
| Non-agency prime | 600 | 61 | 51 | 46 | 0 | - | 60 | 698 | 758 | 97% | ||||||
| Non-agency other (not subprime) |
196 | 77 | 28 | – | 4 | – | 149 | 156 | 305 | 94% | ||||||
| Commercial MBS | 622 | 132 | 51 | 20 | 3 | – | 530 | 298 | 828 | 99% | ||||||
| Total 30.9.2010 | 4,568 | 559 | 314 | 81 | 15 | 74 | 3,601 | 2,010 | 5,611 | 97% | ||||||
| In % | 81% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 64% | 36% | 100% | |||||||
| Total 31.12.2009 | 4,592 | 315 | 235 | 20 | 15 | 85 | 3,993 | 1,269 | 5,262 | 95% |
| Sensitivities to interest rates, spreads and equity markets |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity to risk-free interest rates – Basis points | –200 | –100 | +100 | +200 |
| Change in gross market value (€bn) | +27.1 | +12.7 | –10.9 | –20.2 |
| Change in on-balance-sheet reseres, net (€bn)1 | +5.7 | +2.7 | –2.5 | –4.6 |
| Change in off-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn)1 | +1.3 | +0.6 | –0.5 | –0.9 |
| P&L impact (€bn)1 | +1.0 | +0.5 | –0.4 | –0.7 |
| Sensitivity to spreads2 (change of bps) | +100 | +200 | ||
| Change in gross market value (€bn) | –7.9 | –14.5 | ||
| Change in on-balance-sheet reseres, net (€bn)1 | –1.3 | –2.5 | ||
| Change in off-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn)1 | –0.4 | –0.7 | ||
| P&L impact (€bn)1 | –0.4 | –0.7 | ||
| Sensitivity to equity markets3 | –30% | –10% | +10% | +30% |
| EURO STOXX 50 (2,748 as at 30.9.2010) | 1,924 | 2,473 | 3,023 | 3,572 |
| Change in gross market value (€bn) | –1.8 | –0.6 | +0.6 | +1.9 |
| Change in on-balance-sheet reseres, net (€bn)1 | –0.6 | –0.2 | +0.6 | +1.7 |
| Change in off-balance-sheet reserves, net (€bn)1 | –0.2 | –0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| P&L impact (€bn)1 | –0.7 | –0.2 | –0.1 | –0.3 |
| 1 Rough calculation with limited reliability assuming unchanged portfolio as at 30.9.2010. After rough estimation of policyholder participation and deferred tax; linearity of relations cannot be assumed. Economic view – not fully comparable with IFRS figures. 2 Sensitivities to changes of spreads are calculated for every category of fixed-interest securities, except governments with ratings AAA. 3 Worst-case scenario assumed: impairment as soon as market value is below acquisition cost. |
Munich Re – January 2011 | 77 |
| Appendix | Financial calendar | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINANCIAL CALENDAR | |||||||
| 11 January 2011 | Commerzbank "German Investment Seminar", New York | ||||||
| 3 February 2011 | Reporting on the renewal of reinsurance treaties; key figures 2010 | ||||||
| 10 March 2011 | Balance sheet press conference for 2010 financial statements | ||||||
| 11 March 2011 | Analysts' conference, London | ||||||
| 20 April 2011 | Annual General Meeting, Munich | ||||||
| 21 April 2011 | Dividend payment | ||||||
| 9 May 2011 | Interim report as at 31 March 2011 | ||||||
| 4 August 2011 | Interim report as at 30 June 2011 Half-year press conference |
||||||
| 8 November 2011 | Interim report as at 30 September 2011 | ||||||
| Munich Re – January 2011 85 |
| INVESTOR RELATIONS TEAM | ||
|---|---|---|
| Christian Becker-Hussong | Ralf Kleinschroth | Thorsten Dzuba |
| Head of Investor & Rating Agency Relations Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3910 E-mail: [email protected] |
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-4559 E-mail: [email protected] |
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-8030 E-mail: [email protected] |
| Christine Franziszi | Britta Hamberger | Andreas Silberhorn |
| Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3875 E-mail: [email protected] |
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3504 E-mail: [email protected] |
Tel.: +49 (89) 3891-3366 E-mail: [email protected] |
| Dr. Alexander Becker | Mareike Berkling | Andreas Hoffmann |
| Head of External Communication ERGO Tel.: +49 (211) 4937-1510 E-mail: [email protected] |
Tel.: +49 (211) 4937-5077 E-mail: [email protected] |
Tel.: +49 (211) 4937-1573 E-mail: [email protected] |
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