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MIRVAC GROUP — Investor Presentation 2023
May 1, 2023
65328_rns_2023-05-01_c3dd7cb9-d0f2-4159-b2a2-a86773500509.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Macquarie Australia Conference
Campbell Hanan Group CEO & Managing Director
2 May 2023
Reimagine Urban Life
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE
Acknowledgement of Country
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Mirvac acknowledges Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the Traditional Owners of the lands and waters of Australia, and we offer our respect to their Elders past and present.
‘Reimagining Country’ by Riki Salam (Mualgal, Kaurareg, Kuku Yalanji), We are 27 Creative
9 FEBRUARY 2023 MAY 2023 | 01| 01
MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE
Our competitive advantage
Integrated asset creation and curation capability is our key competitive advantage:
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Unique in-house asset creation capability across multiple asset classes delivering:
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New, quality sustainable product to Investment portfolio and capital partners
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Development earnings and NTA uplift over time
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Strong, aligned asset curation capability and focus on asset quality:
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Delivers consistent superior investment portfolio returns
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Attracts capital, providing highly aligned and recurring funds management income streams and balance sheet support
Award-winning Australian urban asset creator, owner and manager
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Development EBIT
NTA Uplift
Delivers new assets
New recurring
high quality
rental income
New recurring asset
& funds management fee
& co-investment income
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Harbourside, Sydney (artist impression, final design may differ)
9 FEBRUARMA Y 2023 | 02
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Business responding to long-term structural trends
Mirvac’s business leverages structural mega-trends, supporting earnings growth over time
Urbanisation, densification, Changing demographics and regeneration and consumer behaviours Further densification of cities driven Increase in millennials and digital by migration, urban renewal and natives, ageing population, rise of online, infrastructure. Acute residential real time and convenience, and record accommodation affordability, and surge in migration under supply Technology driving change ESG focus Increased reliance on technology Sustainability a “must have”, shaping driving changes in real estate consumer and investment decisions utilisation
Institutional capital demand Growth in domestic superannuation industry driving quality real estate investment demand and global capital remains attracted to Australia
FUTURE FOCUS Retain balance sheet flexibility Expand Funds Management offering Continue to increase cash flow resilience of Investment portfolio Leverage integrated Development capability Continued leadership in sustainability and culture
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Retain Balance Sheet flexibility
Current position
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Strong balance sheet and liquidity position
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Significant coverage over leverage and interest cover covenants
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24%
>5x
A3/A-
Balance sheet
Credit rating [1] ICR [1]
gearing [1]
~$1.3bn ~$1.2bn
Disposal program [1] Available liquidity [1]
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FUTURE FOCUS
Ensure flexibility to execute strategy and take advantage of opportunities
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Maintain modest gearing (target low-mid end of 20-30% range)
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Target dividend payout ratio 60-80% of EPS
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Maintain A3/A- credit ratings
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Target 20-30% of capital deployed to active, which includes IPUC[2] and development inventory
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Increased capital discipline on development spend
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Increased use of strong capital partner relationships
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Recycle capital out of older, lower return assets
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Increased focus on cost efficiencies and productivity
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1. As at 31 December 2022.
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2. Investment Properties Under Construction (IPUC).
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LIV Anura, Brisbane (artist impression, final design may differ) MAY 2023 | 04
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Expand Funds Management offering
Current position
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Continued institutional demand for quality, modern, sustainable real estate in Australia
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Strong alignment of interest model (capital alignment considered in development and investment decisions) and corporate governance track record
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Capital partnerships help unlock value in development pipeline, enhance returns in a rising cost of capital environment, maintain balance sheet discipline, and add annuity earnings
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External AUM has grown by 28% pa since FY15 to ~$18bn[1]
BENEFITS OF FUNDS MANAGEMENT STRATEGY EXPANSION
Diversifies Accelerates Co-invest Improves capital sources development opportunities ROIC Unique alignment Utilises in-house AUM scale of interest model D&C capabilities & synergies ~$18bn External assets under management[1]
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FUTURE FOCUS
Expand Funds Management offering to unlock development pipeline
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Increase partnering across broader suite of asset classes and product types, including living sectors, with aligned partners with scope for growth
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Restructure organisation separating Funds Management, Investments and Asset Management, addressing conflicts of interest and helping to drive performance driven culture
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Utilise Mirvac’s deep in-house creation & curation capabilities to continue to deliver market leading investment and sustainability performance
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Drive new Funds Management growth initiatives underway across BTR, Industrial and MWOF
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Maintain co-investment model to align interest with capital partners
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Collins Place, Melbourne
MAY 2023 | 05
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- As at 31 December 2022, includes funds and assets under management.
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Continue to increase resilience of Investment portfolio
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Current position
Active management has driven strong uplift in portfolio quality
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~$4.2bn of assets disposed over last 10 years
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~$6bn[4] of assets created over last 8 years (13 new assets across BTR, Industrial and Office)
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97.5% occupied Investment portfolio
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Established new BTR asset class (6% of portfolio)
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Industrial 100% Sydney exposed[1]
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100% urban retail
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Prime, modern, sustainable, low capex Office portfolio[2]
Portfolio quality and development has driven excess returns over all time periods
All property returns: Mirvac portfolio versus market benchmark based on compound average annual returns
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FUTURE FOCUS
Continue to lift exposure to high‑quality, modern, capex light assets
Focus on cash flow resilient sectors Current Investment portfolio[ 3] with positive structural tailwinds
Increased exposure to living sectors including BTR and Land Lease communities
Lift industrial exposure
12.0%
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10.1% 10.0%
8.0 9.2%
7.8% 7.5% 7.9% 7.8%
6.1% 6.1%
4.0 5.5%
0
1 YRS 3 YRS 5 YRS 10 YRS 12 YRS
Source: RIA commercial property market return indicator as at December 2022 Mirvac portfolio Benchmark
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- Moderate office exposure with focus on modern prime assets
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Maintain urban retail focus Office 60% Industrial 12%
Retail 22% Build to Rent 6%
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By portfolio valuations as at 31 December 2022.
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98% of Office portfolio Prime (46% premium), 10 year average age, 84% built or refurbished by Mirvac, 5.3 Star average NABERS rating, 0.24% maintenance capex (4.5 year pa average) as at 31 December 2022.
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By total property portfolio valuations, which includes IPUC, assets held for sale/on market for sale, and properties being held for development as at 31 December 2022.
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100% share end value of developments completed
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Heritage Lanes, 80 Ann Street, Brisbane
MAY 2023 | 06
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Leverage integrated Development capability
Current position
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50-year track record of development through cycles
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Integrated development, design and construction capability and reputation for quality is a critical competitive advantage
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Multi-sector development capability provides resilience of earnings across asset cycles
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Broad Residential development pipeline, deep capabilities, and trusted brand to leverage persistent structural under supply of residential accommodation
EXTENSIVE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT CAPABILITY
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Improved Superior
portfolio quality/ investment Risk Sustainability Strategic site FUM
modernisation returns management objectives acquisitions Earnings growth
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DEEP MULTI-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT CAPABILITY
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INDUSTRIAL OFFICE BUILD TO RENT APARTMENTS MASTERPLANNED COMMUNITIES MIXED USE
Switchyard Industrial Estate, SYD [1] 7 Spencer Street, MEL [1] LIV Anura, BNE [1] NINE Willoughby, SYD [1] Smith’s Lane, MEL [1] Harbourside, SYD [1]
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FUTURE FOCUS
More selective in deployment of capital
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Utilise capital efficient structures and capital partnering to drive higher development ROIC and improve flexibility of pipeline
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Re-organisation of structure unifying Development division, driving efficient capital allocation, better utilisation of skills across the business, and talent development and retention
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Increased utilisation of digitalisation and prefabrication techniques to improve efficiency and safety
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LIV Anura, Brisbane (artist impression, final design may differ)
MAY 2023 | 07
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- Artist impression, final design may differ.
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Continued leadership in ESG & Culture
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ESG AT THE HEART OF EVERYTHING THAT WE DO
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STRONG EMPLOYMENT BRAND & CULTURE
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Achieved Net positive in scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions 9 years ahead of 2030 target
AAA Rating
5.0 star
NABERS Average Water Rating
5.25 star
NABERS Average Energy Rating
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1 in property, construction and transport category in 2022
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FUTURE FOCUS
Future proof business for structural changes in customer, capital and regulator requirements
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Utilise internal D&C capabilities to pursue Scope 3 targets by 2030, zero waste and net positive water > Maintain culture as a source of competitive advantage – safety, diversity, purpose, innovation and talent development
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Planet positive in carbon, By 2025 we’ll have invested $50 million Most trusted
ESG
E [:] waste and water by 2030 S [:] to create a strong sense of belonging G [:] owner & developer
Doing no harm is not enough.
Our regenerative aims Net positive A positive legacy Shared value – greater than the sum of our parts
Focus area
Carbon Nothing Every drop Our people Connection Inclusion Procurement Finance & Capability
emissions wasted of water investment & disclosures
Net positive Zero waste Net positive Active, Leaving Truly included ($100m Using our buying Greening Active, capable
Target in scope 1,2,3 to landfill water inclusive care a positive legacy to the social sector) power for good our finance governance
emissions
MAY 2023 | 08
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Sustainable, modern, resilient Office portfolio
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Modern, sustainable office buildings continue to attract strong
tenant demand
96.1% Office demand by grade
Two year net absorption, cumulative square metres
Occupancy [1]
(3Q22: 95.3%) 150,000sqm
5.9 yrs 100,000
WALE [2] 50,000
(3Q22: 6.2yrs)
0
~36,500sqmLeasing deals FYTD (50,000)
(3Q22: ~31,400sqm)
(100,000)
(150,000)
+4.5%
Sydney CBD Melbourne CBD Brisbane CBD Perth CBD
Gross re-leasing
spreads FYTD Prime Secondary
Source: JLL REIS, to end March 2023
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By area, excluding IPUC and assets held for development, as at 31 March 2023.
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By income, excluding IPUC and assets held for development, as at 31 March 2023.
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Average for Office assets.
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By portfolio valuations.
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Mirvac's Prime Office portfolio remains best in class
5.3 star 10.5
98% yrs
Average NABERS Average
Prime grade [4]
energy rating [3] portfolio age
Heritage Lanes, 80 Ann Street, Brisbane
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100% Sydney Industrial portfolio benefiting from tight conditions
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Sydney industrial vacancy remains tight, supporting rent growth
4.00% 30.0%
100%
25.0
Occupancy [1]
(3Q22: 100%) 3.00
20.0
+8.9% 2.00 15.0
Gross re-leasing
spreads FYTD 10.0
1.00
5.0
~40,900sqm 0.00 0.0
Leasing deals FYTD
(3Q22: ~14,000sqm)
Vacancy (%) (LHS) Net rent (%y/y growth) (RHS)
Source: JLL (average of Sydney sub-markets), SA1 as at 31 March 2023
Jun-19Sep-19Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23
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Sydney industrial vacancy remains tight, supporting rent growth
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By area, excluding IPUC and assets held for development, as at 31 March 2023.
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By income, excluding IPUC and assets held for development, as at 31 March 2023.
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By portfolio valuations, excluding assets held in funds.
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Represents 100% expected end value, excluding the sale of any undeveloped land, subject to various factors outside of Mirvac’s control such as planning outcomes, market conditions, construction cost escalation, supply chain risks, weather and other uncertainties.
Sydney Industrial portfolio well placed to benefit from strong market rent growth
~17% 100% ~$1.2bn Lease expiry to FY24[2] Sydney focused[3] Developments underway[4] Calibre Estate, Sydney MAY 2023 | 10
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Urban Retail portfolio seeing resumption of students, tourists and CBD workers
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Australia – Net Visa Arrivals vs Net Overseas Migration
Rolling annual
500,000 Number of people
97.3%
Occupancy [1]
(3Q22: 97.4%)
400,000
300,000
~61,600sqm
Leasing deals FYTD [2]
200,000
(3Q22: ~30,200sqm)
100,000
+0.2%
0
Gross re-leasing
spreads FYTD
(100,000)
(200,000)
19.1%
MAT growth
Temporary student visa Permanent family visa Permanent skilled visa
Permanent other visa Temporary skilled visa Temporary work Net overseas migration
Source: ABS
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
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By area, excluding IPUC, as at 31 March 2023.
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Regular leasing deals, as at 31 March 2023.
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Source: ABS, as at March 2023 (includes permanent family, skilled and other visas plus temporary students and work visas).
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BROADWAY, SYDNEY
Big Guns #1 MAT sales/
sqm centre in Australia
($16,272/sqm)
Urban based portfolio to benefit from population growth
3
~450,000 $10,788/sqm
Net visa arrivals, year Specialty sales
ending March 2023
MAY 2023 | 11
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BTR – strong leasing underway at LIV Munro
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Residential vacancy rates (postcodes)
3.0%
LIV Munro
54%
2.5
Leased [1]
2.3%
(opened Nov 22)
2.0
LIV Indigo 1.6%
1.5
96% 1.4%
Occupancy [1]
1.0 1.0%
0.9%
0.5
LIV Indigo
+7.4% 0.0
Net re-leasing Munro Aston Indigo Albert Fields Anura
spreads FYTD (3000) (3008) (2127) (3056) (4006)
Source: SQM Research, All Dwellings, March 2023.
Brackets represent project postcodes which data represent
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Robust underlying market fundamentals support upcoming developments <1.4% Market rent growth[3 ] ~$0.7bn Market vacancy[2 ] >13% Pipeline BTR assets under construction[4]
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By apartment number, as at 31 March 2023.
-
Source: SQM Research/Macrobond March 2023. Vacancy rate (all dwellings, seasonally adjusted), Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane.
-
Source: CoreLogic March 2023. Annual unit growth in 12-month median rent, Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane.
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Represents forecast value on completion, incorporating a stabilisation allowance and subject to various factors outside of Mirvac’s control such as planning outcomes, market conditions, construction cost escalation, supply chain risks, weather and other uncertainties.
LIV Munro, Melbourne MAY 2023 | 12
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Funds Management – strong momentum underway across multiple sectors
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ESTABLISHING NEW BTR VENTURE
$1.8bn
VENTURE [1]
LIV Munro, Melbourne
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Establishing BTR Venture with 2 aligned long-term capital partners, financial close expected 4Q23 with Mirvac retaining ~45% of the Venture.
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PROGRESSING NEW INDUSTRIAL VENTURE
Switchyard, Auburn, Sydney [2]
~$0.6bn
SEED ASSETS [1]
Aspect, Kemps Creek, Sydney [2]
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HoA[3] and exclusive DD with aligned long-term capital partner for Industrial venture comprising 49% of Switchyard and Aspect North, Sydney. Switchyard settlement targeted FY23, Aspect North targeted FY24.
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NEW OFFICE PARTNERSHIP
$0.6bn
PARTNERSHIP [1]
7 Spencer Street, Melbourne [2]
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Securing a new capital partnership for 7 Spencer Street development in Melbourne.
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MWOF CAPITAL RAISING UNDERWAY
$7.8bn
FUND [1]
Angel Place, Sydney
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Co-invested $229m in MWOF, with ~$400m capital raising (68% underwritten) planned for 4Q23. #1 performing office fund over 12 months and outperformed benchmark over 1, 3, 5 and 7 years.
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These values are 100% of completion end value.
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Artist impression, final design may differ.
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Non-binding Heads of Agreement (HoA).
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Progressing our development pipeline
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MIXED USE / OFFICE INDUSTRIAL BUILD TO RENT
~$2.1bn ~84% ~$345m 474
END VALUE [2] PRE-LEASED [3] END VALUE [2] APARTMENTS
396
APARTMENTS
~$0.7bn
Harbourside, Sydney [1] Switchyard, Auburn, Sydney [1] LIV Anura, Brisbane [1] LIV Aston, Melbourne [1]
BTR DEVELOPMENTS
UNDERWAY [4]
498
APARTMENTS
~$630m
END VALUE [2]
~64% ~$745m
PRE-LEASED [3] END VALUE [2]
7 Spencer Street, Melbourne [1] Aspect, Kemps Creek, Sydney [1] LIV Albert Fields, Melbourne [1]
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Images are artist impressions only, final design may differ.
-
Represents 100% expected end value/revenue (including GST), subject to various factors outside Mirvac’s control such as planning outcomes, market conditions, construction cost escalation, supply chain risks, weather and other uncertainties. Industrial expected end values are excluding the sale of any undeveloped land.
-
Includes Agreement for Lease (AFL) and non-binding Heads of Agreement (HoA). Excluding HoA, Aspect is ~64% and Switchyard is ~66% pre-leased.
-
Represents forecast value on completion, incorporating a stabilisation allowance and subject to various factors outside of Mirvac’s control such as planning outcomes, market conditions, construction cost escalation, supply chain risks, weather and other uncertainties.
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Residential well placed for undersupplied market
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288 (1,133 FYTD) lot sales in Q3 remain subdued impacted by rising interest rates, fewer product launches and lower first home buyer activity
-
Pick up in leads over the quarter and into April, above 10 year average
-
Pre-sales balance increased modestly to ~$1.8bn[1]
-
319 (1,126 FYTD) settlements, heavy Q4 skew expected, wet weather continues to hamper delivery schedules
-
Defaults remain low 0.2%[2]
-
Flexible launch program in place ready to take advantage of pickup in activity
New residential leads improving
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16,000 leads
12,000
8,000
4,000
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Apartments MPC
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APARTMENTS IN ESTABLISHED PRECINCTS SELLING WELL
Underlying market fundamentals remain supportive <1.4%
76% 100% 80% Residential
PRE-SOLD SOLD PRE-SOLD
vacancy [3]
Pavilions, NSW
74%
PRE-SOLD
>40%
Green Square, NSW Ascot Green, QLD Waterfront Isle, QLD Discount between
Note: All images are artist impressions, final design may differ. apartment and
established
house price [4]
Australian housing supply/demand balance
Net new dwelling supply minus total households housing requirement
40,000 dwellings
20,000
+2%
0
Total Australian
(20,000) population growth
CY2022 [5]
(40,000)
(60,000)
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
2022 forecast 2023 forecast
Source: National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation
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<1.4%
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40%
- Represents Mirvac’s share of total pre-sales and includes GST. 2. 12-month rolling default rate as at 31 March 2023. 3. Source: SQM Research/Macrobond March 2023. Vacancy rate (all dwellings, seasonally adjusted), Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane. 4. Source: CoreLogic Greater Sydney 6 month median, March 2023. 5. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Policy, Demand and Supply, 5 April 2023.
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Summary & Outlook
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FY23 Guidance[1]
Operating EPS and DPS
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Due to adverse weather impacting residential settlements and the deferral 16.0 cents
of Aspect North settlement into FY24, the group’s updated FY23 guidance
and components are: 15.1
at least 14.7
> Operating EPS of at least 14.7 cpss (previously at least 15.5 cpss)
FY23 DPS GUIDANCE
> Distribution of 10.5 cpss (previously at least 10.5 cpss) 14.0 14.0
> Residential settlements of around 2,200 lots (previously >2500) 2.9%
growth on FY22
12.0
10.5
10.2
10.0 9.9
8.0
FY21 EPS FY22 EPS FY23 EPS FY21 DPS FY22 DPS FY23 DPS
Guidance Guidance
FORME, Tullamore, Melbourne (artist impression, final design may differ)
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- With continued uncertainty in the operating environment, FY23 guidance remains subject to no material changes to market and delivery conditions
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Positioned for medium-term earnings growth
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Multiple levers to drive growth over time
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LIV Munro, Melbourne
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INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
Resilient, modern, high-quality assets benefiting from growing tenant and capital preference for quality, modern, sustainable assets and development completions
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RESIDENTIAL COMPLETIONS
Delivery of residential pipeline into undersupplied market, underpinned by ~$1.8bn pre-sales[4]
FUNDS MANAGEMENT
Expanded ~$18bn[1] platform (28% pa growth[2] ), ~$5bn organic growth opportunity[3]
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Quay Quarter Tower, Sydney | Photo by Adam Mørk Gainsborough Greens, Queensland
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DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
Value creation from diversified ~$30bn development pipeline[5] , utilising internal design and construction platform
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Harbourside, Sydney
(artist impression, final design is subject to approvals and may differ)
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UNDERPINNED BY BALANCE SHEET, CULTURE AND CAPABILITY
Robust balance sheet position Proven 50-year track record, Sustainability Strong employee with modest leverage integrated platform leadership engagement
1. External AUM.
-
Pa growth since FY15.
-
~$5bn assumes 50% capital partnership on current commercial & mixed use development pipeline wholly owned by Mirvac.
-
Represents Mirvac's share of total pre-sales and includes GST.
-
Represents 100% expected end value/revenue (including GST), subject to various factors outside Mirvac’s control such as planning outcomes, market conditions, construction cost escalation, supply chain risks, weather and other uncertainties.
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Thank you
Contact
Gavin Peacock, CFA | General Manager Investor Relations [email protected]
Authorised for release by
The Mirvac Group Continuous Disclosure Committee
Mirvac Group
Level 28, 200 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000
IMPORTANT NOTICE
Mirvac Group comprises Mirvac Limited (ABN 92 003 280 699) and Mirvac Property Trust (ARSN 086 780 645). This document has been prepared by Mirvac Limited and Mirvac Funds Limited (ABN 70 002 561 640, AFSL number 233121) as the responsible entity of Mirvac Property Trust (collectively “Mirvac” or “the Group”). Mirvac Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Limited ordinary shares and Mirvac Funds Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Property Trust ordinary units, which are stapled together as Mirvac Group stapled securities. All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$). This document is not financial advice or a recommendation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information in this document and the Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek such legal, financial and/or taxation advice as they deem necessary or appropriate to their jurisdiction. Mirvac Funds Limited is entitled to receive ongoing fees in connection with the authorised services provided under its Australian Financial Services licence to Mirvac Property Trust. Mirvac directors and employees do not receive specific payments of commissions for the authorised services provided under Mirvac Funds Limited’s Australian Financial Services licence. The information contained in this document is current as at 31 March 2023, unless otherwise noted.
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