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MIRVAC GROUP — Investor Presentation 2019
Apr 29, 2019
65328_rns_2019-04-29_41a82c9c-5f22-405f-b6aa-ef60be5a38f6.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Reimagine Urban Life
30.04.2019
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MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE
Macquarie Australia Conference
MIRVAC'S DISCIPLINED APPROACH TO ALLOCATING CAPITAL DRIVING RETURNS
URBAN STRATEGY (SYDNEY/MELBOURNE OVERWEIGHT)
85-90% Investment
Secure yield – underpins Group distribution
10-15% Development Disciplined growth
~~$10.9bn~~
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Office & Industrial
Retail
~~$1.8bn~~
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Office, Industrial & Retail
Residential
30 APRIL 2019
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Macquarie Australia Conference
FOCUSED URBAN ASSET CREATION CAPABILITY DRIVING LONGER TERM GROWTH
-
Asset creation capability improving portfolio quality and recurring earnings
-
Investing incremental capital in the creation of $3.1bn of modern high quality assets
-
Consistent growth from passive recurring earnings funding distribution growth
-
IPUC[1] increased 37% in 1H19 and will continue to increase in FY20
-
Expected strong future returns on active capital, but timing variable
$2.7bn
$3.1bn
5%
of modern office and industrial buildings delivered over the past six years
Forecast average passive earnings growth p.a. FY19-21
Active development pipeline[ 2]
EXECUTED STRATEGY TO SELL REGIONAL/NON-CORE ASSETS & CREATE A MODERN CORE PORTFOLIO
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120,000 sqm 8%
477
Collins St
MEL
RSQ
MEL
80,000 6
275 Kent St
SYD
367 Collins St Bldg 2 ATP
MEL SYD 80 Ann St
BRIS
699 Bourke St 2 RSQ
MEL MEL
40,000 4
Locomotive
Workshops
SYD
664
8 Chifley Square Collins St
SYD 200 MEL Bldg
George St 1 & 3,
DMJC
SYD ATP
PER
SYD
0 2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
New Office developments Reposition / refurbish Australian composite cap rate (RHS)
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- Investment Properties Under Construction $389m as at 1H19. 2. As at 31 March 2019.
Source: Mirvac and MSCI.
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OUR PURPOSE[:] TO REIMAGINE URBAN LIFE
~~Shaping the future of Australia’s cities & urban areas~~
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TRAMSHEDS, SYD WOODLEA, MEL GREEN SQUARE, SYD 664 COLLINS STREET, MEL CALIBRE, SYD ATP, SOUTH EVELEIGH, SYD
We leave a legacy of sustainable, connected & vibrant urban environments
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AUSTRALIA’S FIRST INDIGENOUS ROOFTOP FARM AT SOUTH EVELEIGH
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Macquarie Australia Conference
INVESTING IN OUR PEOPLE
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WORK SAFE
stay safe
90%
2019 Engagement Score [ 1]
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- Undertaken by Willis Towers Watson.
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AWARD WINNING QUALITY SINCE 1972
Over 600 awards for industry excellence[1]
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CIBSE – 2019 PCAA – 2018 UT – 2017 AIA – 2017 AIA – 2017 AIA – 2017 NTNSW – 2017 NAWC – 2017 International Project Best Commercial Commercial Sir Arthur G. Stephenson Award Commendation for Lord Mayor's Heritage Award for Project Architect Award of the Year Award Development in Australia Development of the Year for Commercial Architecture Commercial Architecture Prize Adaptive Re-use for Innovation in Design EY Centre EY Centre EY Centre EY Centre Tramsheds Tramsheds Tramsheds Harold Park 200 George Street, NSW 200 George Street, NSW 200 George Street, NSW 200 George Street, NSW Harold Park, NSW Harold Park, NSW Harold Park, NSW Glebe, NSW
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HIA-CSR – 2018
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MASTER BUILDERS – 2018
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HIA – 2018
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realestate.com – 2018
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UDIA – 2018
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UDIA – 2018
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HIA – 2017
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SCN – 2018
Australian Excellence in Queensland Marketer Sustainability and Greenfield Victorian Housing Awards Apartment Complex Multi-Unit Construction Apartment of the Year of the Year Environmental Technology Development Apartment Complex The Morton Latitude Ascot Green Unison Brighton Lakes Brighton Lakes Forge Broadway Bondi, NSW Leighton Beach, WA Ascot, QLD Newstead, QLD Moorebank, NSW Moorebank, NSW Yarra's Edge, VIC Sydney, NSW
Big Guns National Award for Annual turnover psm
- Above represents select awards 2017-2019.
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3Q19 RESIDENTIAL RESULTS REMAIN SOLID IN A CHALLENGING MARKET
$2.0bn Pre-sales secured[ 1]
1290 , lots settled to date > 2500 , FY19 Lot Settlement Target > 900 lots released to date
The Eastbourne, Melbourne (artist impression)
- As at 31 March 2019 adjusted for Mirvac’s share of JV agreements and Mirvac Managed Funds.
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CONTINUAL FOCUS ON QUALITY, LOCATION AND CUSTOMER IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
Residential outlook remains challenging
MIRVAC HISTORICAL ACQUISITIONS VS RESIDENTIAL PRICES
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Average prices and volumes are falling in many corridors – increasing importance of location, design and quality
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Lending conditions across all purchaser groups have tightened
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Competition reducing due to more restrictive developer access to financing
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Well placed to take advantage of emerging opportunities
The Mirvac Difference – Quality, Customer, Placemaking
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Mirvac has 47 years experience in development
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A market leader by delivering through an internal, integrated design, construction, sales, marketing and development model
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Over 27,000 lot pipeline, ~20,000 added between FY11-FY15 with strong embedded margins and majority in capital efficient structures
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Flexibility to launch projects to capitalise on market cycles
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12,000 Lots acquired Residential Price Index (ABS) [ 1 ] 180
170
10,000
160
8,000 150
140
6,000
130
4,000
120
2,000
110
0 100
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 1H19
NSW lots acquired – LHS VIC lots acquired – LHS
Sydney Residential Price Index (ABS) – RHS Melbourne Residential Price Index (ABS) – RHS
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- ABS Cat 6416.0, Residential Property Price Index by Capital City, Reference period 2011-12 = 100, ending value is March 2018.
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STRATEGY FOCUSED ON LONG TERM URBANISATION
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Strategic weighting to NSW and VIC representing 74% of residential lots
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In the 10 years to 2028, Australia’s population is projected to increase by over 4.5 million people[ 1]
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Over 75% of this growth will occur in our four largest capital cities
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On average, Sydney and Melbourne are each expected to grow by over 110,000 people per annum over the next five years[ 1]
-
Over 39,000 new dwellings are expected to be required in both Sydney and Melbourne per annum to meet this demand but a shortfall in supply is forecast[ 2]
PROJECTED POPULATION INCREASE TO 2023[1]
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SYDNEY
MELBOURNE
~
111,000
~ people per year
126,000
people per year
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PRECONDITIONS FOR NEXT CYCLE UNDERWAY AS DWELLING COMPLETIONS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW REQUIRED HOUSEHOLD DEMAND 2
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2,000 (no. of dwellings)
HOUSING SURPLUS
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
HOUSING SHORTAGE
-10,000
-12,000
-14,000
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Melbourne dwelling shortage/surplus (demand – net completions)
Sydney dwelling shortage/surplus (demand – net completions)
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-
Mirvac Research, ABS Population Projections Cat. 3222.0, Series B, November 2018,
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Mirvac Research, BIS Oxford Economics, Forecast of Dwelling Completions, Q4 2018 , ABS Population Projections Cat. 3222.0, Series B, November 2018, Housing Industry Association, forecast of Greater Capital City commencements, November 2018 & RBA, “Long-run Trends in Housing Price Growth”, Bulletin September 2015, RBA, “Housing and the Economy”, Speech by Ric Battellino, November 2009. Greater Sydney & Greater Melbourne net completions calculated using implied dwelling demand (population projections adjusted for household formation rate), unoccupied private dwellings (second and holiday homes) and demolitions.
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STRONG OFFICE & INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE CONTINUES IN 3Q19
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OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
$6.4bn $0.9bn
Portfolio Value [ 1] Portfolio Value [ 1]
97.9% 99.7%
Occupancy [2] Occupancy [2]
6.5 7.8
yrs yrs
WALE [ 3] WALE [ 3]
$5.3bn $0.9bn
Development Pipeline [ 4] Development Pipeline [ 4]
664 Collins Street, Melbourne Calibre Industrial Estate, Sydney
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Includes investment properties under construction and Mirvac's share of JV investment properties, as at 31 December 2018.
-
By area, including investments in joint ventures and excluding assets held for development, as at 31 March 2019.
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By income, including investments in joint ventures and excluding assets held for development, as at 31 March 2019.
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Represents 100% of expected end value of committed and future developments, as at 31 March 2019.
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BUILDING RESILIENT RECURRING INCOME
ADDITIONAL HIGH-QUALITY INCOME FROM OFFICE & INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTS[ 1]
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$95m
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$3.1bn ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE NOI GROWTH
Potential additional annual NOI
100 ($m) NOI
by FY23 from FY19 from active
74%
90 committed development pipeline
80 87% [ 5]
committed
70
94%
60 90% committed
50 pipeline committedof development [ 5] >$200m
Potential fair value uplift
100%
40 committed between FY19-22 [ 2]
100%
30 committed
100%
20 committed
100%
10 committed
0 YEAR 1 FULLY LET NOI >$200m
2H18 FY18–19 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY21 FY22 Cumulative NOI Potential development
664 Collins Street Calibre B2-5 ATP, ATP, 477 Collins Street Locomotive Workshops, 80 Ann Street by FY23 [ 4]
MEL SYD South Eveleigh, SYD South Eveleigh, SYD MEL South Eveleigh, SYD BNE EBIT between FY19-22 [ 3]
B1 and 3 [ 6] B2
Committed [ 5] Uncommitted
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Based on 100% occupancy and 50% ownership, other than ATP, South Eveleigh at 33.3% ownership and Locomotive Workshops, South Eveleigh at 100% ownership, as at 31 March 2019.
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Potential fair value uplift based on 4.80% cap rate for 477 Collins Street, 5.0% cap rate for ATP, South Eveleigh, and 5.0% cap rate for 80 Ann Street.
-
Potential future development EBIT from developments partially sold-down to capital partners (477 Collins Street, ATP, South Eveleigh, Calibre and 80 Ann Street).
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Expected NOI from both active development projects and recently completed developments by FY23 including rental growth.
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Includes Heads of Agreement, as at 31 March 2019.
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ATP, South Eveleigh B1&3 PC in FY19 & income contribution from FY20.
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RETAIL METRICS REMAIN POSITIVE IN 3Q19
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$3.4bn
Portfolio Value [ 1]
99.2%
Occupancy [2]
2.6%
Specialty Sales Growth [3]
>
$10,000/sqm
Specialty Sales Productivity [ 4]
Kawana Shoppingworld, Sunshine Coast Tramsheds, Sydney
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-
As at 31 December 2018.
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By area, as at 31 March 2019.
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On a comparable basis, as at 31 March 2019.
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As at 31 March 2019.
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URBAN AND METROPOLITAN PORTFOLIO POSITIONED FOR PERFORMANCE
Inner and middle ring
Growth corridor and satellite
High household wealth > Strong population growth
-
Deep employment bases > Investment in infrastructure and job-creation
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High barriers to entry > Greater development opportunities
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High value distribution channel > Growing value as a distribution channel
MIRVAC CATCHMENTS HAVE LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT & STRONGER TOTAL INCOME GROWTH
7.5%
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6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
Mirvac portfolio Sydney Melbourne Brisbane NSW VIC QLD
weighted average (excl. Sydney) (excl. Melbourne) (excl. Brisbane)
Total income growth (CAGR) Unemployment rate (%)
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High barriers to entry for urban retail
RHODES WATERSIDE GREENWOOD PLAZA
BIRKENHEAD POINT BRAND OUTLET
METCENTRE
HARBOURSIDE
TRAMSHEDS
BROADWAY SYDNEY
EAST VILLAGE
Low retail supply
despite strong
population growth
and high income
levels in the
inner ring
NSW Shopping Centres Supply
Retail Centre GLA (Postcode)
SOUTH VILLAGE SHOPPING CENTRE 0-10,000 sqm
10,000-30,000 sqm
30,000-50,000 sqm
50,000-100,000 sqm
Property Council of Australia, >100,000 sqm
Shopping Centre Directory
QGIS
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Sources: Australian Government Department of Jobs and Small Business, Small Area Labour Markets publication & Labour Market Information Portal, Sept 18. ABS, Cat. 6524.0.55.002 – Estimates of Personal Income for Small Areas, FY12-FY16. ABS, Cat. 6202.0 – Labour Force, Australia, Nov 18.
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FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES UNDERPINNED BY ROBUST BALANCE SHEET
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Well positioned to fund existing development pipeline and growing distribution
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Gearing of 24.4% and $570m of cash and undrawn committed debt facilities
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4.5% 24.4% 6.1YRS A3/A
Average Gearing [ 2] Average Debt Maturity Moody’s/Fitch
Borrowing Cost [ 1] Credit ratings
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-
Strong operating cashflows in 1H19 and expected to continue in 2H19 given the timing of residential settlements
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FY19 forecast distribution of 11.6cps (+5% on pcp) expected to be fully cash covered with a conservative payout ratio
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Future distribution growth supported by increasing passive recurring NOI from development completions
NET TANGIBLE ASSET GROWTH FUELLED BY PASSIVE PORTFOLIO
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$2.50 0.10 (0.05)
2.44
2.40 0.08
2.31
2.30
2.20
2.10
2.00
NTA at 1 July 2018 Retained Operating Net Revaluation Gain Distributions NTA at 31 December 2018
Earnings
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-
Includes margins and fees.
-
Net debt (at foreign exchange hedged rate) excluding leases (total tangible assets – cash).
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FY19 GUIDANCE REAFFIRMED
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DPS
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FY19 guidance
3 [-] 4%
EPS growth
(16.9-17.1 cpss)
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12.0 cents
11.6
FY19 guidance
11.0 11.0
5%
DPS growth
10.4
10.0
9.9
9.4
9.0 9.0
8.7
8.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Guidance
5% 6 year DPS CAGR 1
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- Period of FY13 (DPS 8.7 cpss) to FY19, including guidance of 5% DPS growth in FY19.
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IMPORTANT NOTICE
Mirvac Group comprises Mirvac Limited (ABN 92 003 280 699) and Mirvac Property Trust (ARSN 086 780 645). This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Mirvac Limited and Mirvac Funds Limited (ABN 70 002 561 640, AFSL number 233121) as the responsible entity of Mirvac Property Trust (collectively “Mirvac” or “the Group”). Mirvac Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Limited ordinary shares and Mirvac Funds Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Property Trust ordinary units, which are stapled together as Mirvac Group stapled securities. All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$).
The information contained in this Presentation has been obtained from or based on sources believed by Mirvac to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mirvac, its affiliates, officers, employees, agents and advisers do not make any warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation or that the information is suitable for your intended use and disclaim all responsibility and liability for the information (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
This Presentation is not financial advice or a recommendation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information in this Presentation and the Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek such legal, financial and/or taxation advice as they deem necessary or appropriate to their jurisdiction.
To the extent that any general financial product advice in respect of the acquisition of Mirvac Property Trust units as a component of Mirvac stapled securities is provided in this Presentation, it is provided by Mirvac Funds Limited. Mirvac Funds Limited and its related bodies corporate, and their associates, will not receive any remuneration or benefits in connection with that advice. Directors and employees of Mirvac Funds Limited do not receive specific payments of commissions for the authorised services provided under its Australian Financial Services License. They do receive salaries and may also be entitled to receive bonuses, depending upon performance. Mirvac Funds Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mirvac Limited.
An investment in Mirvac stapled securities is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of Mirvac, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Mirvac does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of Mirvac nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from Mirvac or any particular tax treatment.
This Presentation contains certain “forward looking” statements. The words “expected”, “forecast”, “estimates”, “consider” and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this Presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Mirvac Group and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions. Past performance information given in this Presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Where necessary, comparative information has been reclassified to achieve consistency in disclosure with current year amounts and other disclosures.
This Presentation also includes certain non-IFRS measures including operating profit after tax. Operating profit after tax is profit before specific non-cash items and significant items. It is used internally by management to assess the performance of its business and has been extracted or derived from Mirvac’s financial statements ended 31 December 2018, which has been subject to review by its external auditors.
This Presentation is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities or any other financial products and is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering document under Australian law or any other law. It is for information purposes only.
The information contained in this presentation is current as at 31 December 2018, unless otherwise noted.
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THANK YOU
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