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MIRVAC GROUP — Investor Presentation 2018
Apr 30, 2018
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Investor Presentation
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MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE
01.05.2018
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08 FEBRUARY 2018 1
Macquarie Australia Conference
MIRVAC'S DISCIPLINED APPROACH TO ALLOCATING CAPITAL AND DRIVING RETURNS
URBAN STRATEGY (SYDNEY/MELBOURNE OVERWEIGHT)
75-80% Investment Secure yield – underpins Group distribution
20-25% Development Disciplined growth
$9.4bn
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Office & Industrial
Retail
$2.0bn
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Office, Industrial & Retail
Residential
01 MAY 2018 2
Macquarie Australia Conference
OUR URBAN STRATEGY & INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES DELIVERING RESULTS
7.0-7.4% 5yr EPS CAGR[1] 6.1% 5yr NTA CAGR[2]
- Period of FY13 (10.9cpss) to FY18, including guidance of 6-8% EPS growth in FY18. 2. Period of 1H13 ($1.64) to 1H18 ($2.20).
01 MAY 2018
3
Macquarie Australia Conference
INVESTING IN OUR PEOPLE
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88% 2017 Engagement Score[ 1]
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- Undertaken by Willis Towers Watson.
01 MAY 2018 4
Macquarie Australia Conference
REIMAGINE URBAN LIFE
Continuing to make a significant contribution to Australia's urban landscape, creating more sustainable, connected and vibrant environments
200 George Street, Sydney
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THE
HARRY AIB No. 1 Concrete
SEIDLER AWARD BIG GUNS Playground's
for Excellence Best New
AWARD in Australia
for commercial in Residential Construction 6 years in a row Precinct
architecture
Unison, Brisbane Broadway, Sydney Tramsheds, Sydney
UDIA
2017 NSW
UDIA TOURISM VICTORIA No. 1
AWARD AWARD for Excellence AWARD Little Guns
for Environmental Best New Tourism in Australia
Excellence Business (Shopper 2017 Judges
Hopper) Award
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Osprey Waters, Perth
Birkenhead Point, Sydney
Forge, Melbourne
East Village, Sydney
01 MAY 2018 5
Macquarie Australia Conference
OFFICE & INDUSTRIAL 3Q18 UPDATE
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OFFICE
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Australian Technology Park, Sydney
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$5.2bn Portfolio Value[ 1]
97.1% Occupancy[ 2] 6.6 yrs WALE[ 3]
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Calibre, Sydney
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$3.8bn Development Pipeline[ 4]
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INDUSTRIAL
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$0.8bn Portfolio Value[ 1] 98.0% Occupancy[ 2] 6.9 yrs WALE[ 3] $1.3bn Development Pipeline[ 4]
-
Includes investment properties under construction and Mirvac's share of JV investment properties.
-
By area, including investments in joint ventures and excluding assets held for development as at 31 March 2018.
-
By income, including investments in joint ventures and excluding assets held for development as at 31 March 2018.
-
Represents 100% of expected end value of committed and future developments.
01 MAY 2018
6
Macquarie Australia Conference
MIRVAC WELL POSITIONED TO BENEFIT FROM OFFICE AND INDUSTRIAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Office
Industrial
Vacancy to tighten further in major CBD's
Increasing tenant need for well located, prime grade facilities
VACANCY RATES - SYDNEY AND MELBOURNE CBDS
GROSS INDUSTRIAL LEASING ACTIVITY - WESTERN SYDNEY PRECINCTS
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12.5%
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Sydney CBD Melbourne CBD
Source: JLL Research historic, Mirvac Research forecast
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1,000 (000s) SQM per calendar year
800
600
400
200
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Retail Transport, Postal & Warehousing Wholesale Trade
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Source: JLL Research
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01 MAY 2018 7
Macquarie Australia Conference
HIGH FUTURE EARNINGS VISIBILITY FROM COMMITTED DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
ADDITIONAL HIGH QUALITY INCOME FROM OFFICE AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTS[[1]]
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ADDITIONAL HIGH QUALITY INCOME FROM OFFICE AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTS [[1]]
RECENT COMPLETIONS $2.3BN ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE NOI GROWTH
~
90 ($m) NOI 56% [ 8] $60m > [$] 200 [m]
committed
80 potential additional potential fair value
annual NOI by FY21 uplift between
70 100% from active dev. FY18–21 [ 2]
committed pipeline
60 100%
committed
50 76% [ 8]
committed
40 100%
committed 86%
30 100% leased of active office > [$] 160 [m] 6.2%
20 100% leased 100% leased development pipeline potential development average yield
committed [ 6] EBIT between on cost [ 3]
FY18-21 [ 4]
10
YEAR 1 FULLY LET NOI
0
FY17 FY17 FY17 2H18 FY18–19 FY19 FY20 FY20 cumulative NOI
200 George St Calibre B1 2 Riverside Quay 664 Collins St Calibre B2-5 ATP ATP 477 Collins St by FY21 [ 5]
B1 & 3 [ 7] B2
Committed [ 6] Uncommitted
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Based on 100% occupancy and 50% ownership, other than ATP at 33.3% ownership and Calibre (all buildings) at 100% ownership.
-
Potential fair value uplift based on 4.97% cap rate for 664 Collins Street, 4.80% cap rate for 477 Collins Street, 5.0% cap rate for Australian Technology Park and 5.94% cap rate for Calibre buildings.
-
Active development pipeline only.
-
Potential future development EBIT from developments partially sold-down to capital partners (664 Collins Street, 477 Collins Street and Australian Technology Park developments).
-
Expected NOI from both active development projects and recently completed developments by FY21 including rental growth.
-
Includes Heads of Agreement, as at 31 March 2018.
-
ATP B1&3 PC in FY19 & income contribution from FY20.
-
As at 31 March 2018.
01 MAY 2018
8
Macquarie Australia Conference
RETAIL 3Q18 UPDATE
$3.1bn Portfolio Value[ 1]
99.3% Occupancy[ 2]
4.5% Specialty Sales Growth[ 3] >$10,000 /sqm Specialty Sales Productivity[ 4]
2.8% Foot Traffic Growth[ 5]
-
As at 31 December 2017.
-
By area, as at 31 March 2018.
-
On a comparable basis, as at 31 March 2018.
-
As at 31 March 2018.
-
As at 31 March 2018, comparable centres.
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Toombul Shopping Centre, Brisbane
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01 MAY 2018 9
Macquarie Australia Conference
URBAN EXPOSURE DRIVING OUTPERFORMANCE IN A CHALLENGING RETAIL ENVIRONMENT
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Retail sales growth has been below long term averages, but the major eastern urban cities are supported by strength in employment markets and a more positive outlook for consumers
-
Assets with superior demographics and astute management to remain resilient
-
High traffic locations with convenient access will remain key in retail distribution channels
-
Accelerated capex and retailer churn to continue
-
Mirvac's urban portfolio well positioned to respond to growth of online and omni-channel
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~70% OF MIRVAC’S RETAIL PORTFOLIO IS LOCATED IN HIGHLY DENSE AREAS OF SYDNEY
Stanhope Village
Cherrybrook Village
St Marys Village
Rhodes Waterside Greenwood Plaza
Birkenhead Point Metcentre
Tramsheds
Harbourside
Broadway
East Village
POPULATION PER
SQUARE KILOMETRE
0-1,000
1,000-2,000
2,000-3,000
3,000-4,000
4,000-5,000
5,000-6,000
6,000 +
Mirvac Centres
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Source: ABS, Mirvac
01 MAY 2018 10
Macquarie Australia Conference
NOT ALL RETAIL IS CREATED EQUAL
Stay relevant, stay productive
Active adapting mix, over 170 new retail brands introduced in past 18 months via development and remixing > Disciplined development focused on asset productivity, not scale > Customer-centric experiential capex: playgrounds, car parks, amenities, mall upgrades and technology
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The Right Mix
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Outperforming anchors through the right blend and complementary uses > Supermarkets trading over 30% above benchmarks[1] > Overweight food catering ~20% income > Total majors trading over 25% above benchmarks[1] > Overweight entertainment & non-retail ~20% income > Underweight department and discount department > Significantly improved apparel quality: specialty sales stores <5% income $/sqm up over 40% since Jun 14
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Strong consumer base in Mirvac’s highly urban catchments
10X Health,
~30% ~19% 65% education
higher household lower population higher population and tourism
per Sq Km vs
incomes [ 2] unemployment [ 3] growth [5] exposure
Sydney avg. [4]
The Best Markets
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-
Mirvac stores vs Urbis Shopping Centre Benchmarks 2017 per individual centre classification.
-
Estimated Mirvac SA1 catchment vs. Australian average per Census 2016.
-
Mirvac catchment unemployment rate of 4.6% versus Australian unemployment of 5.7%. Source: Department of Employment, Small Area Labour Markets – Sept 17, Mirvac Research.
-
Estimated Mirvac Sydney catchment population density of 3,906 persons per square kilometre versus Greater Sydney population density of 390 persons per square kilometre. Source: Census 2016, Mirvac Research.
-
Estimated Mirvac SA2 catchment population CAGR of 2.8% versus Australian population CAGR of 1.7% (2011-2016). Source: Census 2011 & 2016, Mirvac Research.
-
3 years to 30 June 2017. Peer group contains ASX 200 listed AREITs with available disclosures, sourced from company reports.
-
3 years to 31 December 2017, Mirvac comparable foot traffic growth versus Australian population growth (ABS population clock).
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Delivers Outperformance
3 YEAR AVG. COMPARABLE TOTAL SALES GROWTH[6]
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5.0 (%) 4.7%
4.0
3.0
2.2%
2.0
1.0
0
Mirvac Peer Average
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3 YEAR AVG. COMPARABLE SPECIALTY SALES GROWTH[6]
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5.0 (%)
4.5%
4.0
3.3%
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
Mirvac Peer Average
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3 YEAR AVG. COMPARABLE FOOT TRAFFIC GROWTH [7]
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5.0 (%)
4.0
3.2%
3.0
2.0 1.9%
1.0
0
Mirvac Australian population
01 MAY 2018 11
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Macquarie Australia Conference
RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE STABILISED AS EXPECTED, FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN STRONG
-
Housing market activity has eased but location, quality and understanding of customer are key for outperformance
-
Signs of improved buyer sentiment, particularly among owner-occupiers and first home buyers
-
Lending conditions have tightened, housing finance data indicates settlement loans for off-the-plan dwellings are rising in line with increased volumes of completions
-
Developer access to finance is tighter and competition is reducing
-
Conditions remain supported by low interest rates, a competitive lending environment, solid employment growth and strong urban population growth in the eastern states
MIGRATION-SUM OF NET OVERSEAS & NET INTERSTATE (ROLLING ANNUAL)
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120 (000s)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
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-40
Sep 85 Sep 89 Sep 93 Sep 97 Sep 01 Sep 05 Sep 09 Sep 13 Sep 17
New South Wales Victoria
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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01 MAY 2018 12
Macquarie Australia Conference
RESIDENTIAL 3Q18 UPDATE
$2.8bn Pre-sales Secured[ 1]
~3,400 FY18 Lot Settlement Target
98% of FY18 top EBIT contributors lots secured[ 2]
> 95% Expected Residential EBIT Secured For FY18[ 2]
- As at 31 March 2018 includes Mirvac share of JVA and Mirvac Managed Funds. 2. As at 31 March 2018.
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Vance – Harold Park, Sydney
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01 MAY 2018 13
Macquarie Australia Conference
SYDNEY AND MELBOURNE URBANISATION TO DRIVE FUTURE RESIDENTIAL EARNINGS
Mirvac’s urban footprint benefiting from $118bn of government infrastructure spend in Sydney and Melbourne
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SHOWGROUND
STATIONT CASTLE HILLSTATIONT CHERRYBROOKSTATION EXPECTED RESIDENTIAL EBIT CONTRIBUTION FY18-20 Other [ 2]
T (WA & QLD MPC)
55 COONARA AVE 14%
Brisbane
WEST PENNANT HILLS VIC
Apartments Masterplanned
3% Communities
271 LANE COVE RD 33%
Melbourne
MACQUARIE PARK
Apartments
1%
MACQUARIE PARKSTATION T
The
Eastbourne
44%
6%
CHATSWOODSTATION T ST LEONARDS VIC/NSW MPC
ST LEONARDS/CROWS NEST T SQUARE
STATIONS
$2.8bn Sydney
Apartments
32% NSW
of residential Masterplanned
pre-sales [ 1] Communities
Melbourne Apartments excluding 11%
The Eastbourne which is 93% presold
MARRICK HAROLD T CENTRAL STATION
& CO PARK T REDFERN STATION
CANTERBURY
STATION MARRICKVILLE 89%
T STATION GREEN THE FINERY
T SQUARE T GREEN SQUARESTATION of forecast
KING ST STATIONTEMPE T NSW apartment
CANTERBURY T WOLLI CREEKSTATION T MASCOT STATION settlements over
AIRPORT STATIONINTERNATIONAL T FY18-20 pre-sold
T DOMESTIC AIRPORT STATION
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01 MAY 2018 14
-
As at 31 March 2018.
-
Mirvac internal forecasts.
Macquarie Australia Conference
HIGH QUALITY PRODUCT AND PIPELINE
Strategic locations, quality product and brand strength will continue to drive outperformance
Strong embedded margins
-
Control 28,207 lots with an overweight exposure to NSW and VIC
-
15,760 lots acquired in NSW/VIC between FY11-14
-
50% of the pipeline has an expected +25% gross margin
Managing the cycle, margins & profitability
-
Continue to prudently target ~$2bn of balance sheet capital allocation to residential and engage in capital partnering
-
Target 70-80% trade coverage prior to commencement of construction
-
Declining capitalised interest now at 7% of inventory supports future margins
By lots under control.
As at 31 March 2018.
72%
exposed to NSW and VIC[ 1]
> 50%
of pipeline has expected +25% gross margin
51%
of lots in PDA/JV capital efficient structures
25%
average margin on $2.8bn[ 2] of pre-sales
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The Eastbourne, Melbourne (artist impression)
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Woodlea, Melbourne (artist impression)
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01 MAY 2018 15
Macquarie Australia Conference
CONSERVATIVE BALANCE SHEET UNDERPINS EARNINGS GROWTH
Continued execution of capital management strategy
-
Strong capital position and flexible balance sheet
-
Upgraded credit rating to A3 from Baa1 by Moody's and upgraded outlook to positive from stable by S&P[ 1]
-
Gearing of 23.8% at the lower end of target range of 20-30%
-
6.8 years weighted average debt maturity with limited expiries in any one year
-
73% of debt hedged providing protection against future interest rate movements
-
Strong operating cash flows expected in 2H18 driven by the timing of residential settlements
-
FY18 forecasted distribution of 11.0cpss (+6% on pcp) expected to be fully cash covered
-
Mirvac S&P credit rating BBB+ positive.
-
Includes margins and fees.
-
Net debt (at foreign exchange hedged rate) excluding leases/(total tangible assets – cash).
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4.8% 23.8% 6.8 rs
y
Average Gearing [ 3] Average Debt
Borrowing Cost [ 2] Maturity
DIVERSIFIED DRAWN DEBT MATURITIES
500
400
300
200
100
0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33
EMTN USPP MTN Bank
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01 MAY 2018 16
Macquarie Australia Conference
REAFFIRMED FY18 GUIDANCE
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FY18 EPS
-
6 8%
Growth
on FY17
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OPERATING EPS
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15.3-15.6c
16.0 cents
14.4c FY18 guidance
(FY17 guidance:
14.0-14.4c)
14.0 13.0c
12.3c (FY16 guidance:
11.9c (FY15 guidance: 12.7-13.0c)
(FY14 guidance: 12.0-12.3c)
12.0 10.9c 11.7-12.0c)
(FY13 guidance:
10.7-10.8c)
10.0
8.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Guidance
7.0-7.4% 5 year EPS CAGR 1
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FY18 DPS
6%
Growth
on FY17
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DPS
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12.0 cents
11.0c
FY18 guidance
10.4c
11.0
FY17 guidance:
(10.2–10.4c)
9.9c
(FY16 guidance:
9.4c 9.7–9.9c)
10.0
(FY15 guidance:
9.2–9.4c)
9.0c
8.7c (FY14 guidance:
(FY13 guidance: 8.8–9.0c)
9.0 8.5-8.7c)
8.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Guidance
4.8% 5 year DPS CAGR 2
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- Period of FY13 (DPS 8.7cpss) to FY18, including guidance of 6% DPS growth in FY18.
- Period of FY13 (10.9cpss) to FY18, including guidance of 6-8% EPS growth in FY18.
01 MAY 2018
17
Macquarie Australia Conference
IMPORTANT NOTICE
Mirvac Group comprises Mirvac Limited (ABN 92 003 280 699) and Mirvac Property Trust (ARSN 086 780 645). This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Mirvac Limited and Mirvac Funds Limited (ABN 70 002 561 640, AFSL number 233121) as the responsible entity of Mirvac Property Trust (collectively “Mirvac” or “the Group”). Mirvac Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Limited ordinary shares and Mirvac Funds Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Property Trust ordinary units, which are stapled together as Mirvac Group stapled securities. All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$).
The information contained in this Presentation has been obtained from or based on sources believed by Mirvac to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mirvac, its affiliates, officers, employees, agents and advisers do not make any warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation or that the information is suitable for your intended use and disclaim all responsibility and liability for the information (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
This Presentation is not financial advice or a recommendation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information in this Presentation and the Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek such legal, financial and/or taxation advice as they deem necessary or appropriate to their jurisdiction.
To the extent that any general financial product advice in respect of the acquisition of Mirvac Property Trust units as a component of Mirvac stapled securities is provided in this Presentation, it is provided by Mirvac Funds Limited. Mirvac Funds Limited and its related bodies corporate, and their associates, will not receive any remuneration or benefits in connection with that advice. Directors and employees of Mirvac Funds Limited do not receive specific payments of commissions for the authorised services provided under its Australian Financial Services License. They do receive salaries and may also be entitled to receive bonuses, depending upon performance. Mirvac Funds Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mirvac Limited.
An investment in Mirvac stapled securities is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of Mirvac, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Mirvac does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of Mirvac nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from Mirvac or any particular tax treatment.
This Presentation contains certain “forward looking” statements. The words “expected”, “forecast”, “estimates”, “consider” and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this Presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Mirvac Group and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions. Past performance information given in this Presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Where necessary, comparative information has been reclassified to achieve consistency in disclosure with current year amounts and other disclosures.
This Presentation also includes certain non-IFRS measures including operating profit after tax. Operating profit after tax is profit before specific non-cash items and significant items. It is used internally by management to assess the performance of its business and has been extracted or derived from Mirvac’s financial statements ended 31 December 2017, which has been subject to review by its external auditors.
This Presentation is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities or any other financial products and is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering document under Australian law or any other law. It is for information purposes only.
The information contained in this presentation is current as at 31 December 2017, unless otherwise noted.
01 MAY 2018 18
THANK YOU
01.05.2018
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08 FEBRUARY 2018 19