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MIRVAC GROUP — Investor Presentation 2011
May 16, 2011
65328_rns_2011-05-16_52a8c22b-7c09-4e8a-a5a9-d06184e7ac48.pdf
Investor Presentation
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development by mirvac
17 MAY 2011
era pacific place, chatswood, nsw
agenda
introduction
development strategy presentation
residential Market Update
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nicholas collishaw, Managing director Brett draffen, ceo development
david rees, head of research and consulting, Jones lang lasalle
NSW residential asset tour > 71 Macquarie street, cBd > era, pacific place, chatswood
harold park, glebe
green square town centre, green square
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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agenda
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1 MirVac’s deVelopMent BUsiness > residential > commercial
2 iMpaired inVentory Update
3 driVers to 2014
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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MirVac’s deVelopMent BUsiness
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
page 3
MirVac’s deVelopMent BUsiness
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aN iNtegRated developmeNt platfoRm With a 39 yeaR hiStoRy
ReSideNtial developmeNt CommeRCial developmeNt high density = apartMents 80[%][ 1] office, indUstrial, retail 20[%][ 1] low density = hoUses and land
miRvaC’S developmeNt buSiNeSS iS foCuSSed oN dRiviNg RetuRNS to SuStaiNable levelS WhilSt maNagiNg RiSk
- 1) target eBit through cycle.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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strengths of MirVac’s residential and coMMercial deVelopMent BUsiness
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
page 5
MirVac’s deVelopMent BUsiness
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eNhaNCed RetuRNS fRom iNtegRated platfoRm
sales & acQUisition design deVelopMent constrUction MarKeting / leasing
intellectual property retained internally > standardisation to lower costs > full process control allows adaptability and accurate costing > speed to market – chatswood 9 weeks[ 1]
CoStS aNd time SaviNgS floW StRaight to miRvaC’S gRoSS maRgiN
risK retUrn
StRoNg RelatioNShipS
key StakeholdeRS SupplieRS
iNStitutioNal iNveStoRS
acquisitions
planning managed > confidence in planning outcomes > ability to access major infill sites
lower costs
national procurement > subcontract tender cover > innovation with materials > economies of scale
partnerships
drives roa improvement
fee income
de-risk large land holdings
- 1) state government approval for development to release to market.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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MirVac’s deVelopMent BUsiness
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vaRiety of Capital effiCieNt StRuCtuReS:
| WholeSale paRtNeRShipS StRuCtuRed laNd paymeNtS pda JoiNt veNtuRe |
defnition capital partnership with small number of investors for development, with development deliverybyMirvacprovided for fees and share in equity profts |
|---|---|
| Benefts improved roa, fees |
|
| example Mwrdp |
|
| defnition time effcient method of staged terms for acquisition of land for development assets |
|
| Benefts improved irr, improved roa |
|
| example eastern golf course, Vic |
|
| defnition provision of development services by Mirvac for a return without the transfer of title from the owner, who retains a longterm interest |
|
| Benefts improved irr, access to strategic sites, fees |
|
| example elizabeth hills, nsw |
|
| defnition Undertakinga development in a defnedpartnershipwith a co-investor |
|
| Benefts improved roa, fees |
|
| example Burswood, wa |
of total developmeNt 35% Capital
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
page 7
MirVac’s deVelopMent BUsiness
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RigoRouS aCquiSitioN pRoCeSS ReduCeS RiSk:
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Multi stage review process
New Business Team SUBMITTED State CEO & National CEO IF REJECTED > feasibility studies not reliant
high level review on price escalation
IF APPROVED
National Product Review IF REJECTED > top down & bottom up
IF APPROVED (review by National Development Excomm) research
> return hurdles of average
New Business Team finalises SUBMITTED Development Approval IF REJECTED
18% irr
Approval to Purchase Committee (DAC)
IF APPROVED > projects targeted with
Executive Leadership Team IF REJECTED confidence in planning
(ELT)
outcomes
IF APPROVED
Board IF REJECTED > optimised capital allocation
(if required)
PROJECT PROCEEDS
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MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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MirVac’s deVelopMent BUsiness
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aCquiSitioNS illuStRate RigoRouS pRoCeSS:
| Settlements | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| project | location | type | lots | from | Why is this a good acquisition for development? |
| harold park | nsw | apartment | 1,250 | fy14 | > Unique major infll development opportunity |
| > iconic inner city site | |||||
| > fy14 settlements | |||||
| new Brighton | nsw | land/housing | 257 | fy14 | > capital effcient pda structure |
| > increased exposure to nsw market | |||||
| > fy14 settlements | |||||
| 71 Macquarie street | nsw | apartment | approx | tBa | > return to one of Mirvac’s key brand strengths — delivering premium apartments on |
| 100 | iconic inner city site | ||||
| > Build on success of Quay grand apartment project | |||||
| > allows the hotels business to leverage off developments | |||||
| green square | nsw | apartment | 1,500 | fy17 | > capital effcient pda structure |
| town centre | > Unique location — town centre for the southern sydney corridor | ||||
| > Multi generational project | |||||
| hamilton | Qld | apartment | 582 | fy14 | > increased exposure to the affordable market |
| > Ulda jurisdiction (ability to fast track approvals) | |||||
| > fy14 settlements | |||||
| eastern golf course | Vic | land/housing | 621 | fy15 | > Unique major infll development opportunity |
| > iconic Melbourne’s eastern suburbs site | |||||
| > favourable terms and returns | |||||
| old treasury Building | wa | commercial | n/a | fy15 | > increased commercial exposure to perth cBd |
| > delivering 50% of a premium asset to Mpt | |||||
| > secure 25 year lease with the wa government | |||||
| total | approx 4,310 |
ReStoCkiNg foR futuRe eaRNiNgS
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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80% ReSideNtial = apartMents, hoUses and land
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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strengths of MirVac’s residential deVelopMent BUsiness
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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residential deVelopMent
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SupeRioR bRaNd leveRaged
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higher presales
price repeat preMiUM cUstoMers $ achieVed
ability to dRive RetuRNS iN a flat maCRo maRket
Better access to capital
national procurement
Brand drives pre-sales and price premium
- increased market share
conservative assumptions via acquisition process
pRoduCt diveRSity loWeRS RiSk[ 1]
60[%] 23[%] 17[%] apartMents land hoUses
1) Mirvac’s share of revenue as at 31 december 2010.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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residential deVelopMent
geogRaphiC diveRSity[ 1]
short term skew to nsw
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FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
NSW
QLD
VIC
WA
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SettlemeNt maNagemeNt
robust sales contracts from 39 years of experience > default rates average 3% medium term > contracts “full recourse” and unconditional > sales and marketing team employed and trained in-house
- 1) forecast eBit.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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high density = apartMents
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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residential deVelopMent high density = apartMents
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pRofile of high deNSity
high barriers to entry > acceptable risk return profile
-
larger quantum of return
-
More capital intensive
-
longer cash conversion cycle — approximately 2-3 years
-
complex skill set
-
pre-sale for de risking
Generic Profile — Single Stage, 200 Unit Apartment
| CUMULATIVE CASH FLOW | Month 6 DA Submitted Month 12 DA Approved Month 15 Construction Commences Month 35 Practical Completion |
Month 6 DA Submitted Month 12 DA Approved Month 15 Construction Commences Month 35 Practical Completion |
Month 6 DA Submitted Month 12 DA Approved Month 15 Construction Commences Month 35 Practical Completion |
Month 6 DA Submitted Month 12 DA Approved Month 15 Construction Commences Month 35 Practical Completion |
Month 6 DA Submitted Month 12 DA Approved Month 15 Construction Commences Month 35 Practical Completion |
Month 6 DA Submitted Month 12 DA Approved Month 15 Construction Commences Month 35 Practical Completion |
Month 6 DA Submitted Month 12 DA Approved Month 15 Construction Commences Month 35 Practical Completion |
Month 6 DA Submitted Month 12 DA Approved Month 15 Construction Commences Month 35 Practical Completion |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | ||||||||||
| 30.0% | Land Payment |
Settlement of Unsold Stock |
||||||||
| 10.0% | ||||||||||
| 0.0% | Internal Design Phase |
Council Approval Phase |
||||||||
| (10.0%) | Settlement of Presold Stock |
|||||||||
| (30.0%) | Initial Marketing & Pre-release |
Sales | Civils, Carparks & Basement Works |
|||||||
| (50.0%) | Finishing of Lower Levels |
|||||||||
| (70.0%) | Finishing of UpperLevels |
|||||||||
| Planning & Design (9 Months) |
Marketing (6 Months) |
Settlement (6 Months) |
||||||||
| Construction (20 Months) |
||||||||||
| Wholesale partnership Fee Stream cost based fees – billed for design, marketing and construction costs Mgr share of equity accounted sales and marketing expenses cost based fees – billed for design, marketing and construction costs 50% of equity accounted sales and marketing expenses cost based fees – billed for design, marketing and construction costs Mgr share of equity accounted sales and marketing expenses Marketing expensed sales commissions expensed 100% project proft & loss impact pda Fee Stream 50% Joint venture Fee Stream |
||||||||||
| Marketing expensed |
sales commissions expensed |
100% of proft recognised on settlement |
||||||||
| Mgr share of equity accounted sales and marketing expenses |
Mgr share of equity profts recognised on settlement |
|||||||||
| cost based fees – billed for design, marketing and construction costs | revenue based fees | |||||||||
| 50% of equity accounted sales and marketing expenses |
50% of equity profts recognised on settlement |
|||||||||
| cost based fees – billed for design, marketing and construction costs | revenue based fees | |||||||||
| Mgr share of equity accounted sales and marketing expenses |
Mgr share of equity profts recognised on settlement |
|||||||||
| cost based fees – billed for design, marketing and construction costs | revenue based fees |
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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residential deVelopMent high density = apartMents
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StRiCt loCatioN CRiteRia geNeRatioNal pRoJeCtS plaNNiNg SpeCialiSed Skill Set SkeW to mid maRket
capital city focus
Multi stage – product adaptation and overhead savings planning visibility sought pre acquisition
strong track record and integrated model
less cyclical
deeper market > government requires supply from urban high density > generational preference shift to high density
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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residential deVelopMent high density = apartMents
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leSS CompetitioN
exit of peers
pRe-SaleS
Brand — 39 year track record
construction subject to internal pre-sales limits > strong customer network – Vip database
Presales — Historic 10yr Profile
$1.4bn
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$1.2
$1.0
$0.8
$0.6
$0.4
$0.2
$0.0
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 [ 1]
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ReCeNt aCquiSitioNS
harold park, nsw green square, nsw hamilton, Qld
1) as at 12 May 2011.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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case stUdy — high density
eRa, paCifiC plaCe, ChatSWood, NSW
project detail:
site acquired > december 2000
delivered
- 42 story building containing 295 apartments, 4,900sqm of office space
timing
- construction period of three years beginning in July 2011
forecast project irr
- greater than 18%
integrated model at work
- the development division received state government approval for the project in early March 2011, and in nine weeks Mirvac development, Mirvac construction, Mirvac design and Mirvac sales and Marketing released and sold 94%[ 1] of the 295 lot apartment tower
1) as at 11 May 2011.
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MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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low density = hoUses and land
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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residential deVelopMent low density = hoUses and land
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pRofile of loW deNSity
-
lower capital commitment > smoother earnings
-
delivery less complicated
-
flexibility of stock and staging
-
shorter cash conversion cycle — approximately 6-12 months
-
risk in planning at acquisition
Generic Profile - Multi Stage, 1,000 Lot Masterplanned Community
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Month 6 Month 24 Month 36
DA Submitted DA Approved First Settlement
80.0%
40.0%
Nogotiationsbetween Period of SettlementPeriod
Council Civil Works Indicative Profile
Authorities
of Each Stage
0.0%
Break
Even Point
Staged
(40.0%) Land Payment First Profit Recognition
Sales
Internal Initial Civils
Design & Infrastructure
Phase
(80.0%)
Planning & Design Civils & Settlements
(24 Months) (Continues for Remainder of Project)
profit & loss impact
100% project Marketing 100% of profit recognised on settlement
expenses
pda Marketing Mgr share of equity profits recognised on settlement
expenses
Fee Stream cost based fees revenue & cost based fees
50% Joint venture Marketing 50% of equity profits recognised on settlement
expenses
Fee Stream cost based fees revenue & cost based fees
Wholesale partnership Marketing Mgr share of equity profits recognised on settlement
expenses
Fee Stream cost based fees revenue & cost based fees
CUMULATIVE CASH FLOW
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MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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residential deVelopMent low density = hoUses and land
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key StakeholdeR RelatioNShipS
acquisitions and planning
plaNNiNg expeRieNCe
in-house through Mirvac design
houSe deSigN Capability
smaller lots rely on house and land packaged solution > greater yield per site – Zipper lots > design excellence = flexibility
ReCeNt aCquiSitioNS
eastern golf course, Vic newbrighton golf course, nsw rockbank, Vic[ 1 ]
1) Joint venture.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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case stUdy — low density
middletoN gRaNge, NSW
project detail:
site acquired
-
pda agreed with landcom in september 2007
-
site purchased outright from landcom in december 2010
delivered
- approximately 474 lots in 6 stages — land, house and land packages and speculative product
timing
- due for completion in mid-late 2013
forecast project irr
- greater than 18%
integrated model at work
-
Mirvac design created the masterplan and delivered design, approval and construction documents for housing
-
Mirvac constructions co-ordinated infrastructure and house build
-
Mirvac sales and Marketing sold the product
-
Mirvac development managed the development process
-
this allows Mirvac to respond to market trends such as small lots and speed of project delivery to market
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MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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coMBining high + low density proJects
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diveRSifiCatioN
-
different demand drivers across products
-
high density: government requires supply from urban high density urban supply to meet population growth
-
low density: first home buyers and upgraders
balaNCe CaSh floWS
long lead times of high density balanced with faster delivery from low density
ReduCeS volatility of eaRNiNgS
large contributions offset by smaller stable volume
NSW Projects Profile[[ 1]]
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NSW Projects Profile [[ 1]]
House/Land
ERA Chatswood Chatswood
ERA
Harold Park
Rhodes Waterside
Rhodes ELINYA
& WATER’S EDGE
Harold Park
Rhodes PINNACLE
Endeavour
Middleton Grange
Elizabeth Hills
Hoxton Park residential
FY12 FY13 FY14
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Staff
Multi skilled workforce
1) Mirvac’s share of forecast revenue.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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coMMercial deVelopMent
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20% office retail indUstrial
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MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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coMMercial deVelopMent
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pRofile of CommeRCial developmeNt
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offiCe > Mid to high rise, predominantly cBd locations
> complex skill set
> longer time to delivery
> capital intensive
> pre-sale/lease to de-risk
example: 8 chifley square, nsw; old treasury Building, wa
Retail > opportunities from residential inventory
> complex skill set
> Medium time to delivery
> capital intensive
> pre-sale/lease to de-risk
example: stanhope gardens, nsw; orion springfield town centre, Qld
iNduStRial > leverage relationships for selected opportunities
> shorter time to deliver
> less capital intensive
> pre-sale/lease to de-risk
example: hoxton park, nsw; nexus industrial park, nsw
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MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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coMMercial deVelopMent
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- commercial developments delivered at cost to Mpt > part share asset sell down provides earnings to development division
miRvaC’S StReNgthS
iNtegRated model beNefitS
rapid and efficient response to opportunities and market demands
full process control allows adaptability and accurate costing
tRaNSfeRable Skill Set
Multi skilled workforce can shift across project types (e.g. apartments)
deliveRy of pRoduCt to mpt
Quality, time and cost benefits – better than market yields
RelatioNShipS
Value creation through part share sell down to partners — common goal driving profit maximisation
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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case stUdy — coMMercial deVelopMent
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hoxtoN diStRibutioN CeNtRe, NSW
project detail
site acquired
- acquired former hoxton park airport in July 2010
deliverables
-
circa 140,000 sqm of industrial space and houses two major distribution centres
-
100 per cent pre-leased to woolworths limited
timing
- completion of the dick smith distribution facility anticipated august 2011 — 5 months ahead of program, completion of the Big w distribution facility in december 2011 — 3 months ahead of program
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forecast project irr
- greater than 18%
integrated model at work
- project involved resources from all departments within Mirvac; development, design, investment and corporate services teams, working together to maximise this opportunity for Mirvac
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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iMpaired inVentory Update
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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iMpaired inVentory Update
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pRogReSS of eNglobo SaleS ahead of SChedule:
| project | target sales dates | update |
|---|---|---|
| dianella,wa | June 2011 | on track — terms agreed,sales date in line with forecast |
| Magenta shores,nsw | september 2011 | on track — terms agreed,sales date in line with forecast |
| Brendale,Qld | december 2011 | on track — marketingunderway |
| the royal,stage 2,nsw | January2012 | on track — marketingunderway |
| Bridgewater,wa | november 2012 | on track — marketingcampaign to be undertaken in fy12 |
Provision release roll off[ 1 ]
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$350m
Build Out Release
$300 Englobo Release
Q311 Projected Provision Balance
$250 Previous Projected Provision Balance
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
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-
Mirvac remain confident that there are no current outstanding provisions to carrying value
-
the exception remains tennyson reach (carrying value $80.8m), was adversely affected by the Queensland floods. as soon as Mirvac has a reasonable basis to forecast the impact of these events, the group will inform the market if the impact is assessed to be material
-
1) Based on forecast revenue, market conditions, expenditure, and interest cover over project life.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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driVers to 2014
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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driVers to 2014
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impaCt of ReCeNt aCquiSitioNS:
> new acquisitions will provide material incremental impact on fy14 returns
5 Year Net Inventory Profile
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$1.4bn
$1.2 Average Margin 18%-22%
Now includes 2H11 acquisitions:
Chatswood, Eastern Golf Club, Old Treasury
$1.0
$0.8
$0.6
$0.4 Average Margin 15%-20%
Laureate / Waverley Park
Middleton Grange Average Margin <5%
$0.2 Newcastle / Magenta
The Point, Mandurah
$0.0
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
New & Fast Tracked (as at 17 May 2011) Existing
New & Fast Tracked as at 1H11 Provisioned
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1) gross margin = (revenue – cost of goods sold)/revenue.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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driVers to 2014
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2008 – 2010
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process iMproVeMent
-
$40m overhead cost savings
-
centralise Mirvac design
-
further improve acquisitions process
2011 – 2012
transition
-
acquisitions recommence > englobo sales + build out
-
capital recycling
-
re-activate commercial development
-
Build up pre-sales
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2013
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deliVer sUstainaBle earnings growth
-
significant apartment completions: chatswood, nsw, harold park, nsw, hamilton, Qld
-
diversify capital and geography
-
commercial development providing meaningful eBit contributions
pRe-SaleS iS a key Competitive advaNtage foR miRvaC
- $285m of pre-sold revenue at May 2011 represents approximately 25% of fy14 forecast development revenue
potential to supplement this via harold park and hamilton releases expected by calendar year end 2011
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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sUMMary
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-
integrated platform allows flexibility and adaptability
-
superior brand delivers pre-sales > diversified across geography, product and capital structure
-
= Right model
-
Very strong pre-sales — $1.1bn
-
acquisitions and portfolio profile deliver for fy14
-
transition on track for provision projects and englobo sales
-
=[ SuStaiNable ] RetuRNS
oN tRaCk foR fy14
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
page 33
disclaiMer and iMportant notice
Mirvac Group comprises Mirvac Limited ABN 92 003 280 699 and Mirvac Property Trust ARSN 086 780 645. This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Mirvac Limited and Mirvac Funds Limited (ABN 70 002 561 640, AFSL number 233121) as the responsible entity of Mirvac Property Trust (collectively “Mirvac” or “the Group”). Mirvac Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Limited ordinary shares and Mirvac Funds Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Property Trust ordinary units, which are stapled together as Mirvac Group stapled securities. All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$).
The information contained in this Presentation has been obtained from or based on sources believed by Mirvac to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mirvac, its affiliates, officers, employees, agents and advisors do not make any warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation or that the information is suitable for your intended use and disclaim all responsibility and liability for the information (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
This Presentation is not financial advice or a recommendation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals.
To the extent that any general financial product advice in respect of the acquisition of Mirvac Property Trust units as a component of Mirvac stapled securities is provided in this Presentation, it is provided by Mirvac Funds Limited. Mirvac Funds Limited and its related bodies corporate, and their associates, will not receive any remuneration or benefits in connection with that advice. Directors and employees of Mirvac Funds Limited do not receive specific payments of commissions for the authorised services provided under its Australian Financial Services Licence. They do receive salaries and may also be entitled to receive bonuses, depending upon performance. Mirvac Funds Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mirvac Limited.
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This Presentation contains certain “forward looking” statements. The words “anticipated”, “expected”, “projections”, “forecast”, “estimates”, “could”, “may”, “target”, “consider” and “will” and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this Presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forwardlooking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Mirvac Group and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions.
Past performance information given in this Presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.
Where necessary, comparative information has been reclassified to achieve consistency in disclosure with current year amounts and other disclosures.
This Presentation is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities or any other financial products and is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering document under Australian law or any other law. It is for information purposes only.
MirVac deVelopMent 17 May 2011
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Questions