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MIRVAC GROUP — Interim / Quarterly Report 2020
Feb 5, 2020
65328_rns_2020-02-05_27c40bb4-f03f-4740-a687-bfcd0d53b67f.pdf
Interim / Quarterly Report
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1H20
Results
Reimagine Urban Life
06.02.2020
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1H20 RESULTS
Office & Industrial CAMPBELL HANAN Residential HEAD OF OFFICE & INDUSTRIAL STUART PENKLIS HEAD OF RESIDENTIAL Overview SUSAN LLOYD-HURWITZ 15 CEO & MANAGING DIRECTOR 24 02 Retail Financial Results SUSAN MACDONALD HEAD OF RETAIL SHANE GANNON CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 20 11 Summary & Guidance SUSAN LLOYD-HURWITZ CEO & MANAGING DIRECTOR
06 FEBRUARY 2020 1
Overview
Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO & Managing Director
Waterloo Metro Quarter, Sydney (artist impression)
1H20 RESULTS
Urban focus on Australia’s growth cities delivering results
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Defensive cash flows,
and sustainable
distribution growth
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$352m 9.0 cpss 47.5%
1H20 OPERATING PROFIT 1H20 EPS
21% GROWTH 14% GROWTH 12 MONTH TOTAL
ON PCP ON PCP SECURITYHOLDER
RETURN [ 1]
.58 NTA 6.1
cpss
20.8%
1H20 DPS
6% GROWTH GEARING [ 2]
ON PCP 15% GROWTH
ON PCP
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- Total return from security price change and distributions paid over 12 months to 31 December 2019. 2. Net debt (at foreign exchange hedge rate) excluding leases (total tangible assets – cash).
3
06 FEBRUARY 2020
1H20 RESULTS
Growing value and recurring income through asset creation
-
$12.3bn of passive invested capital provides highly visible and secure cash flows that underpin future distribution growth
-
Passive capital allocation at 88%, in line with targeted weighting of 85%–90% of total capital
-
Asset creation supporting expected 5% average growth p.a. in passive earnings over FY19-21[ 1]
STRONG DEVELOPMENT RETURNS
-
Active EBIT in FY20 benefiting from the completion of several high value office and residential apartment developments
-
Future active EBIT has higher variability year-on-year given timelines of development completions
-
We expect 2H20 active EBIT to be similar to 1H20 & continue to expect ~$1bn of active EBIT over FY19-21[ 2]
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GROWING DISTRIBUTION FUELLED BY PASSIVE PORTFOLIO
5%
$600 FORECAST AVERAGE
PASSIVE EARNINGS
GROWTH P.A.
FY19–21 [ 1]
DISPOSED OF ~$3BN OF ASSETS
$500
5%
$400
DISTRIBUTION GROWTH
GUIDANCE FY20
$300
$200 ~$1bn
ACTIVE EBIT
EXPECTED FY19-21 [ 2]
$100
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Passive EBIT Active development EBIT Distributions to securityholders
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- Expected growth from property net operating income (passive). 2. Expected development EBIT from residential, commercial and retail development (active).
06 FEBRUARY 2020 4
1H20 RESULTS
Continuing to deliver modern urban assets
-
Investing incremental capital in creating modern high-quality assets
-
Since FY14 we have successfully delivered seven new offices and five new industrial assets totalling ~$2.7bn in value[ 1]
-
Portfolio quality improving as new assets delivered
-
Well progressed on delivering our $3.1bn[ 2] pipeline under construction, to further enhance the passive portfolio
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SOUTH EVELEIGH, SYDNEY $1,026M [ 2] LOCOMOTIVE WORKSHOPS, SYDNEY $406M [ 2]
$3.1bn
END VALUE [ 2]
477 COLLINS STREET, MELBOURNE $857M [ 2] 80 ANN STREET, BRISBANE $851M [ 2]
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- 100% interest. 2. Represents 100% expected end value on completion. NB: All images are artist impressions, final design may differ.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 5
1H20 RESULTS
Asset creation and capital partnering driving growth
-
Asset creation capability delivering high-quality passive assets as the development pipeline completes
-
Future pipeline with a total expected end value of $8.5bn[ 1] supports future growth in recurring income, development profit and NTA
-
Proven ability to capital partner, driving external AUM to $9.1bn, supporting asset and funds management fees
-
86% of office portfolio expected to be developed by Mirvac by FY22[2]
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GROWING PASSIVE ASSETS
AND EXTERNAL ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT
$35.0 billion 3
$23.1bn
30.0 TOTAL ASSETS UNDER ~$30bn
MANAGEMENT
25.0
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GROWING PASSIVE ASSETS
AND EXTERNAL ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT
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30.0 TOTAL ASSETS UNDER ~$30bn
MANAGEMENT
25.0
$1.6
20.0 $1.7
$9.1
$1.7 $8.7
$1.8 $7.7
15.0
$1.8 $6.3
$5.8
10.0 $1.6 $12.3
$11.5
$2.8 $10.1
$9.2
$8.0
5.0 $7.5
0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 1H20 Post completion
of future development
Passive invested capital External assets under Management Active invested capital pipeline [ 4]
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-
Represents 100% of expected end value of committed and uncommitted future developments subject to planning, unforeseen construction delays and unexpected market conditions. 2. Includes new and substantially redeveloped.
-
Represents the total of balance sheet and externally managed assets as at 1H20.
6
- Expected assets under management following completion of committed and future development pipeline, adjusted for investment properties under construction. Based on Mirvac internal forecasts, subject to planning approvals and market demand.
06 FEBRUARY 2020
1H20 RESULTS
Successful execution against capital raising targets
Secured the next generation of value accretive mixed-use, build-to-rent, office, industrial and residential projects
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MIXED-USE
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~
$5bn
EXPECTED END
VALUE [ 1]
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Waterloo Metro Quarter, SYD
Flinders West, MEL
INDUSTRIAL
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Wantirna South, MEL
300 Manchester Road, Auburn, SYD
BUILD-TO-RENT
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LIV Brunswick, MEL
LIV Munro, MEL
RESIDENTIAL
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Milperra Western Sydney Uni Campus, SYD
Riverlands Milperra, SYD
-
Represents 100% of expected end value of committed and uncommitted future developments subject to planning.
-
NB: All images are artist impressions, final design may differ.
7
06 FEBRUARY 2020
1H20 RESULTS
Enhancing urban mixed-use strategy
-
Changing consumer preferences and ongoing urban population growth supporting our urban mixed-use strategy
-
Significant government infrastructure investment facilitating density and reshaping residential and employment precincts
-
Proven Mirvac capability to capture value from mixed-use urban asset creation across office, industrial, retail and residential
-
Integrated technical skills in development, design and construction
-
Trusted partner for public and private sector providing unique opportunities for both parties
-
~$5.8bn[ 1] of current and expected future assets in South CBD area gives us a deep understanding of the customers and the community
-
Represents residential and investment portfolio assets and 100% of expected end value of developments.
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SYDNEY CBD
HARBOURSIDE SOUTH EVELEIGH, SYD
HAROLD PARK
BROADWAY
EAST VILLAGE
SOUTH WATERLOO
EVELEIGH
2 THE FINERY METRO QUARTER, SYD [ 3]
~$1.4bn
COMMERCIAL
AND RETAIL WATERLOO
METRO GREEN
QUARTER SQUARE
~$800m2 ~$1.5bn2
RESIDENTIAL, RESIDENTIAL,
COMMERCIAL, COMMERCIAL,
RETAIL, RETAIL
STUDENT
HOUSING
MARRICK & CO
GREEN SQUARE, SYD [ 3]
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-
100% of expected end value.
-
Artist impression, final design may differ.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 8
1H20 RESULTS
Build-to-rent strategy progressing
ATTRACTIVE BUILD-TO-RENT MARKET OPPORTUNITY
The Australian apartment rental market has an estimated value of $580bn, with no major institutional ownership[ 1]
Changes in demographic preferences coupled with affordability constraints has resulted in the growth of renters far outpacing the general population growth[ 2]
MIRVAC STRATEGICALLY POSITIONED TO CAPTURE THE OPPORTUNITY
- Integrated structure, with proven experience across development, investment and property management
Ability to leverage strong residential brand and customer focus
Well progressed with the development of Mirvac’s build-to-rent (BTR) operating platform, LIV Mirvac
SECURED ADDITIONAL BTR PIPELINE LOTS OVER THE HALF
- Delivery of LIV Indigo at Sydney Olympic Park is on program with first customers expected to move in 1H21
Construction has commenced on the second build-to-rent asset LIV Munro at Queen Victoria Markets and two additional pipeline assets were secured
Targeting a yield on cost >4.5% and unlevered IRR >7.5% on the BTR portfolio
Potential for BTR to grow to a portfolio of 5,000 apartments over the medium term, funded through a combination of balance sheet and third party capital
ESTIMATED SIZE OF PRIVATE RENTAL SECTOR (APARTMENTS)[ 1]
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$580bn
SYD [ 2] MEL [ 2] BRI [ 2]
64% 69% 70%
OF APARTMENTS OF APARTMENTS OF APARTMENTS
RENTED RENTED RENTED
BUILD-TO-RENT — FUTURE PIPELINE Expected
Practical
Project Location Units [ 3] Completion 3
LIV Indigo SYD 315 FY21
LIV Munro MEL ~490 FY22/23
LIV Flinders West MEL ~430 FY23/24
LIV Brunswick MEL ~450 FY24/25
Total ~1,685 FY21/25
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-
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 6416.0 – Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Sep 2019, Table 6. Estimated by applying 2016 Census proportion of rented stock to total market value.
-
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2016, Greater Capital City Areas.
-
Expected units and timing subject to planning.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 9
1H20 RESULTS
Focused ESG approach delivers for all stakeholders
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COMPETITIVE ENGAGEMENT
FINANCE
Organisations
focused on ESG TSR EPS SAFETY DIVERSITY
NTA
WALE
issues are shown TRUST TO P
TALE N T
1 DPS
to outperform ROIC
CONSTRUCTIVE
RISK
CULTURE
PARTNERS & INVESTORS COMMUNITIES
GREEN STAR SOLAR
BENEFITS: SOCIAL RETURN
ON INVESTMENT
NABERS WATER
> Increased asset value
COMMUNITY
> Decreased operating costs EMISSIONS MATERIALS AFFORDABILITY INVESTMENT
> Decreased landfill tax VOLUNTEERING
> Increased residential sales
ZERO
RECONCILIATION
WASTE
H
u
S
l
m
o
a
i
ci
c a
a
l
n n
l
r a
a
u
n
a
t
i
F
N
EMPLOYEES
CUSTOMERS
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BENEFITS:
High employee engagement > Talent retention
-
Increased productivity
-
Resilient company culture
BENEFITS:
Avoided project delays
-
Reduced absenteeism in healthier buildings
-
Partner of choice
-
Khan, Mozaffar N., George Serafeim, and Aaron Yoon. “Corporate Sustainability: First Evidence on Materiality.” Harvard Business School Working Paper, No.15-073, March 2015. Regnan: ESG Integration for Investment Performance 15 October 2019.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 10
Financial Results
Shane Gannon
Chief Financial Officer
The Eastbourne, Melbourne
1H20 RESULTS
Continued strong financial results in line with expectations
OPERATING RESULTS
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||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|1H20|1H19|
|$m|$m|Strong increase in Property NOI driven by Office LFL NOI growth of 5.6%,|
|offset by lower development earnings compared to prior period|
|Office & Industrial|251|265|5%|
|LFL NOI growth of 2.0% plus income at South Village offset by $5m|
|Retail|83|85|2%|
|development earnings from Kawana redevelopment recognised in|
|Residential|144|58|148%|the prior period|
|Corporate|(18)|(18)|0%|Reflects 1H20 increase in lot settlements and greater skew to Apartment|
|settlements. On track to deliver FY20 lot settlement target with a greater|
|Operating EBIT|460|390|18%|
|proportion of earnings from Apartment projects than in FY19|
|Operating profit after tax|352|290|21%|
|Group remains on track for FY20 EPS guidance of 3-4% growth|
|Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)|346|252|37%|
|Strong growth in AFFO reflects continued operating earnings growth|
|Statutory profit after tax|613|648|5%|together with lower tenant incentives across our investment portfolio|
|Benefits from strong increase in operating earnings offset by lower|
|revaluation gains ($243m in 1H20; $392m in 1H19)|
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06 FEBRUARY 2020 12
1H20 RESULTS
Capital management supporting growth through cycle
-
Strong operating cash flows in 1H20 given the timing of residential settlements
-
FY20 forecast distribution of 12.2cpss (+5% on pcp) expected to be fully cash covered
-
Future distribution growth supported by increasing passive recurring NOI from development completions
-
Maintained A3/A- Credit Ratings with stable outlooks from Moody's/Fitch
ROBUST BALANCE SHEET TO SUPPORT FUTURE GROWTH THROUGH CYCLE
-
Gearing maintained at low end of target range, at 20.8%[ 1]
-
Average borrowing costs declined 30bps to 4.5%[ 2] over the half
-
Continued investment in technology to support future growth plus start up costs to establish our BTR business
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20.8% 4.5% 7.7 rs A3⁄A-
y
GEARING [ 1] AVERAGE BORROWING AVERAGE MOODY’S / FITCH
COST [ 2] DEBT MATURITY CREDIT RATINGS
DRAWN DEBT MATURITIES AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2019
$500m
400
300
200
100
0
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39 FY40
USPP EMTN MTN Bank
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- Net debt (at foreign exchange hedged rate) excluding leases (total tangible assets-cash). 2. Including margins and fees.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 13
1H20 RESULTS
Pipeline delivering development profit and increasing recurring income
MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS¹
| MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS¹ | TRIBUTORS¹ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Profits & Fair Value Uplifts2 FY20 |
FY20 | FY21 | FUTURE PIPELINE1 | |
| Development Profits & Fair Value Uplifts2 Development Pipeline |
||||
| > South Eveleigh, SYD – Buildings 1 & 3 – part year > Calibre, SYD – B2 to 5 – full year > 477 Collins Street, MEL > South Eveleigh, SYD > 80 Ann Street, BNE > 80 Ann Street, BNE > Locomotive Workshops, South Eveleigh, SYD > South Eveleigh, SYD – Buildings 1 & 3 – full year > 477 Collins Street, MEL – part year > South Eveleigh, SYD, Building 2 – part year NOI Growth NOI Growth 91% PRE-LET DEVELOPMENTS³ Ofice > 80 Ann Street, BNE > 75 George Street, Parramatta, SYD > 55 Pitt Street, SYD > 383 La Trobe Street, MEL > Walker Street/Pacific Highway, NTH SYD > Waterloo Metro Quarter, SYD > Flinders West, MEL > Harbourside, SYD Industrial > Aspect, Kemps Creek, SYD > 300 Manchester Road, Auburn, SYD > Elizabeth Enterprise, Badgerys Creek, SYD OFFICE & INDUSTRIAL |
||||
| > Toombul development, BNE – full year > South Village, SYD – full year > Kawana development, Sunshine Coast, BNE– full year > Toombul development, BNE – part year > Harbourside, SYD > Birkenhead Point, SYD > Broadway, SYD RETAIL |
||||
| > LIV Indigo, SYD > LIV Munro, MEL > LIV Brunswick, MEL > LIV Flinders West, MEL BUILD- TO-RENT |
||||
| MPC > Tullamore, MEL > Woodlea, MEL > Olivine, MEL > Crest, SYD > Gainsborough Greens, BNE > Smiths Lane, MEL > Googong, NSW > Iluma, PER Apartments > Pavilions, SYD > Marrick & Co, SYD MPC > Tullamore, MEL > Woodlea, MEL > Olivine, MEL > Crest, SYD > Gainsborough Greens, BNE Apartments > St Leonards Square, SYD > The Eastbourne, MEL > Marrick & Co, SYD > Pavilions, SYD MPC > Olivine, MEL > Woodlea, MEL > Smiths Lane, MEL > Everleigh, BNE > Googong, SYD > The Fabric, MEL4 > Wantirna South, MEL > Milperra, Riverlands, SYD > WSU Milperra, SYD > Coonara Ave, SYD5 Apartments > Green Square, SYD > Pavilions, SYD > Yarra’s Edge – Voyager, MEL > Ascot Green, BNE > 505 George Street, SYD > Harbourside, SYD > Waterloo Metro Quarter, SYD RESIDENTIAL |
- Based on Mirvac internal forecasts, subject to planning approvals and market demand. 2. Development profit recognised progressively over the life of the project.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 14
- Percentage pre-let of committed development pipeline including HoA. 4. Held under share sale agreement. 5. Site owned by Mirvac, progressing re-zoning opportunities.
Office & Industrial Campbell Hanan Head of Office & Industrial South Eveleigh, Sydney
1H20 RESULTS
High quality modern office portfolio delivering strong results
STRONG PORTFOLIO RESULTS SUPPORTED BY STRATEGIC OVERWEIGHT TO PRIME SYDNEY AND MELBOURNE ASSETS AND DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS
-
Office NOI increased 5.2% on pcp to $177m, including like-for-like NOI growth of 5.6%
-
Net valuation gains of 3% or $208m, including a 10.1% increase from externally valued assets (29% of total) over the half[ 1]
-
Capitalisation rate compression of 18bps to 5.25%
CONTINUED TENANT DEMAND FOR HIGH QUALITY MODERN BUILDINGS
-
De-risking future income with >33,000 sqm of leasing activity, including expiries across 2H20-FY23
-
Total leasing spreads of 15.1%
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15.1%
5.6% ~80%
LEASING
LIKE-FOR-LIKE RETENTION RATE
SPREADS
NOI GROWTH OF TENANTS
$14.5bn 85%
OFFICE AUM SYDNEY /
MELBOURNE [ 6]
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-
Occupancy increased to 98.5% from 98.2% at FY19[ 2]
-
Increased WALE to 6.9 years[ 3]
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DE-RISKING FUTURE INCOME AND EXTENDING WALE [ 7]
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DELIVERING $3.1BN[ 4] ACTIVE AND COMMITTED DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
-
Building 2 at South Eveleigh, 100%[ 5] committed, with lease commencement in 1H FY21
-
477 Collins Street, 97%[ 5] committed, with substantial lease commencement in 1H FY21
-
Locomotive Workshops, South Eveleigh – pre-leased 78%[ 5 ] office space, with substantial lease commencement in 1H FY22
-
80 Ann Street, 80%[ 5] committed, with lease commencement in FY22
-
Including share of valuation gains from joint ventures.
-
By area, including investments in joint ventures and excluding assets held for development.
-
By income, including investments in joint ventures and excluding assets held for development.
-
Represents 100% of completed end value.
-
Includes Heads of Agreement.
-
By portfolio value, including IPUC and properties being held for development.
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14%
12 13%
10
8 9% 9%
8% 8%
6 7% 7%
4
4%
2
2% 2%
0
Vacant 2H20 FY21 FY22 FY23
FY19 Lease Expiry Profile 1H20 Lease Expiry Profile
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- By income. FY19 lease expiry profile for FY20 relates to full year, 1H20 relates to remaining 6 months.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 16
1H20 RESULTS
Industrial portfolio leveraging strong Sydney growth
-
Strategic positioning of industrial portfolio exclusively to Sydney, benefiting from e-commerce, committed infrastructure and continued urbanisation
-
Strong NOI growth of 5.0%, including like-for-like growth of 3.1%
-
High occupancy of 100%[ 1] with an attractive WALE of 7.4 years[ 2]
-
Valuation uplift of $20m[ 3] reflecting a WACR of 5.69% (3bps compression)
-
PROGRESSING WITH $1.2BN[4 ] INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
-
300 Manchester Road, Auburn development expected to benefit from demand for infill ‘last mile’ locations and committed infrastructure (e.g. WestConnex)
-
Elizabeth Enterprise at Badgerys Creek and Aspect at Kemps Creek strategically located to benefit from the new Western Sydney International Airport and Aerotropolis with more than $30bn[ 5] infrastructure investment committed
-
Both precincts are now identified as ‘initial precincts’ in NSW Government Draft Western Sydney Aerotropolis Plan for new employment estates
-
By area.
-
By income.
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MIRVAC FUTURE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO NEW WESTERN SYDNEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT & AEROTROPOLIS
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M4
M4 MOTORWAY
WESTERN SYDNEY
EMPLOYMENT AREA
ASPECT, KEMPS CREEK M7
NORTHERN ROAD WESTERNSYDNEY
UPGRADE PRIORITY
GROWTH AREA
M12
ELIZABETH ENTERPRISE,
BADGERYS CREEK
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
WESTERN SYDNEY LIVERPOOL
INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT
ELIZABETH >
ENTERPRISE & $30bn
ASPECT NOW
INCLUDED IN GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT
'INITIAL PRECINCT' IN AIRPORT & SURROUNDING
INFRASTRUCTURE
BY 2026 [5]
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-
Including share of valuation gains from joint ventures.
-
Represents 100% of expected end value of committed and uncommitted future developments subject to planning.
-
Australian Government – Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Cities & Regional Development, Prime Minister of Australia Media Release, NSW Budget FY20 and Half Yearly Review.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 17
1H20 RESULTS
Planning the next wave of new high quality developments
ACTIVE AND FUTURE O&I DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE INCREASING TO $8.5BN[ 1]
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$10.0 billion
$8.5bn [ 1]
8.0
Future
developments:
6.0 Pre-DA planning
$6.6bn
4.0 $4.8bn Future
developments:
DA submitted
$3.4bn
2.0
Active
committed
developments
0
FY17 FY18 FY19 1H20
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DELIVERING ON OUR ACTIVE AND COMMITTED DEVELOPMENTS
-
$3.1bn[ 2] committed office development pipeline expected to deliver strong returns and recurring income:
-
Significantly de-risked through 91% tenant pre-commitments[ 3]
-
$90m additional annual recurring NOI over FY20–FY23[ 4]
-
Forecast to deliver >$130m of development EBIT and >$200m of fair value uplift over FY20 – FY22[ 5]
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS SECURED & IN PLANNING
-
Secured future developments with a forecast end value $5.4 billion,[ 6] aligned with Mirvac’s urban strategy and asset creation capabilities
-
Development approvals submitted for $1.6bn of development end value, with profit recognition expected from FY22[ 7]
| Potential timing of profit recognition Expected End Value Expected Yield on Cost |
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23+ |
| Active committed developments $3.1bn 6.1% |
|
| Future developments – DA submitted $1.6bn 6.1% |
|
| Future developments – Pre-DA planning $3.8bn n/a |
|
| Total Pipeline $8.5bn |
-
Represents 100% of expected end value of committed and future developments subject to planning.
-
100% of expected end value.
-
Includes Heads of Agreement.
-
Expected NOI from both active development projects and recently completed developments by FY23 including rental growth.
-
Expected fair value uplift based on 477 Collins Street, South Eveleigh, Locomotive Workshops and 80 Ann Street.
-
Represents 100% of expected end value of future developments subject to planning.
-
Subject to market demand and planning.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 18
1H20 RESULTS
Future resilience by creating one of Australia's youngest office portfolios
YOUNGER PRIME PORTFOLIO LOWERS CAPEX PROFILE AND RISK OF OBSOLESCENCE
-
Delivering modern smart buildings that work with disruptive technology
-
Tighter densities and more efficient floor plates for the modern workforce
-
Expected to be more resilient against cyclical downturns
-
Designed to benefit the long term holder, creating buildings with higher income potential and long term recurring income
MIRVAC BUILDINGS CAN FACILITATE TIGHTER DENSITIES FOR THE MODERN WORKFORCE[ 5]
pace Ratio – Square Metres Per Person
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25.5 25.4
20.9
20.0
17.8
14.4
10.0 9.7
8.0
0
1996 2001 2006 2012 2017 Mirvac Mirvac New
Current Portfolio [ 1] Developments [ 1]
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-
Average design density.
-
By expected portfolio value.
-
100% interest of developments completed between FY12 and 1H20, plus expected end value of committed development pipeline.
-
Includes new and substantially redeveloped.
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~ ~
70% $6.1bn 86%
OF OFFICE PORTFOLIO OF NEW OFFICE ASSETS OF OFFICE PORTFOLIO
YOUNGER THAN CREATED OR BEING EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPED
15 YEARS OLD CREATED BETWEEN OR REPOSITIONED
BY FY22 [ 2,4] FY12 & FY22 [ 3] MIRVAC BY FY22 [ 4]
South Eveleigh, Sydney
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06 FEBRUARY 2020 19
- Source: City of Sydney Floor space and employment survey’s – Sydney CBD and Pyrmont-Ultimo.
Retail Susan MacDonald Head of Retail
Head of Retail
Toombul, Brisbane
1H20 RESULTS
Quality of urban retail portfolio continues to drive performance
LEVERAGING A GROWING URBAN AUDIENCE
- Strong leasing across 190 deals covering ~29,300 sqm of GLA
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120+ million
RETAIL VISITS
(PEOPLE p.a)
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-
Positive leasing spreads of 1.4% overall, with -0.8% for new and 2.3% for renewals
-
Like-for-like NOI growth of 2.0%
-
High occupancy maintained at 99.0%[ 1]
-
Comparable MAT sales growth of 2.8%[ 2] and comparable specialty sales growth of 2.4%
-
Strong specialty sales productivity of $10,348/sqm on occupancy costs of 14.8%
INVESTOR DEMAND REMAINS STRONG FOR URBAN AND METRO MARKETS
285 people
- Valuation uplift of 0.4% reflecting a cap rate of 5.37% (4bps compression on FY19)
PER SQUARE METRE OF GLA[ 3]
- Successful capital reallocation with disposal of St Marys Village, NSW for a 36% premium to June 2019 book value
| 1H20 | FY19 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H20 | Comparable | Comparable | ||
| RETAIL SALES BY CATEGORY | Total MAT | MAT growth | MAT growth | |
| Supermarkets | $1,165m | 3.5% | 4.4% | |
| Discount department stores Mini-majors Specialties Other retail Total |
$262m $550m $1,202m $235m $3,414m |
5.0% 0.1% 2.4% 5.4% 2.8%2 |
4.5% (0.5%) 2.0% 4.0% 2.7% 4 |
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TOTAL RELATIVE RETURN (EASTERN METRO VS NON-METRO) [ 5]
1.10 Relative Return vs Total Retail 6% cumulative
outperformance
1.05
1.00
0.95
11% cumulative
underperformance
0.90
0.85
Sep 2015 Sep 2016 Sep 2017 Sep 2018 Sep 2019
Eastern metro Non-metro Total retail
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1. By area.
-
Total Comparable MAT sales growth would equate to approximately 2.1% adjusting for major Supermarkets and DDS categories reporting 53 weeks of sales.
-
Annual customer visits divided by Gross Leasable Area.
-
Total Comparable MAT sales growth would equate to approximately 2% adjusting for major Supermarkets and DDS categories reporting 53 weeks of sales.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 21
- Source: MSCI 2019, Mirvac.
1H20 RESULTS
Connected Urban Hubs will be integrated, experiential and dynamic
THE VALUE OF CONNECTION FOR OUR AUDIENCES
ENABLING PROGRESSIVE PARTNERSHIPS
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Value & scale Proximity, On the
of our existing accessibility immediate
audience - & parking in the pathway
120m+ retail most desirable to purchase/
centre visits urban locations dispatch
Lifestyle
Integration destinations that Most
of retail & underpin human progressive
other uses connection by audience +
becoming the heart of
“1+1+1=4” partners
their communities
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ENTERTAINMENT COLLABORATION
WITH LIVE NATION
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ARCHIE BROTHERS CIRQUE ELECTRIQ
AT TOOMBUL – FIRST TO QUEENSLAND
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COOK WITH COSTI AT BROADWAY – FRESH &
COOKED PROVIDORE COLLABORATION
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KYLIE KWONG AT YERRABINGIN NATIVE PLANT GARDEN AT SOUTH EVELEIGH
06 FEBRUARY 2020 22
1H20 RESULTS
Embracing progressiveness to create greater value for Mirvac and our partners
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[[ 2]]
Connected
Urban
Hub
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TO DRIVE OUTPERFORMANCE
PROGRESSIVE URBAN AUDIENCE
- 20% higher productivity vs Urbis[ 1]
Mirvac’s most valuable consumer attributes:
-
~60% higher productivity of progressive & advanced partners[[ 2]]
-
Progressive societal, cultural & tech attitudes
-
3.8% sales CAGR in Mirvac portfolio since June 2016 vs Australia 2.8%[ 3]
Prosperity (wealth)
Propensity to spend
- Potential to benefit from generational shift as Mirvac catchment has 2.5x exposure to this audience compared to the Australian average[ 4]
IN THE MOST ‘DISRUPTED’ MARKETS > 27% higher online penetration in Mirvac markets[ 5] > These markets contain affluent, high spending early-adopters
WITH PHYSICAL & SOCIAL CURATION
-
Integrating Health & Wellness, Entertainment, Recreation, and Community uses to continue to thrive
-
Greater versatility in how we use space to deliver a more dynamic experience
ATTRACTING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE PARTNERS > 170 new partners last 18 months introduced to the portfolio
-
Source: Usbis 2019, Mirvac.
-
Mirvac sales productivity compared to Urbis benchmarks weighted for relevant asset classification. Progressive and advanced partners assessed by factors related to level of future relevance.
-
Minimal vacancies from administrations year to date
-
Australian Bureau of Statistics sales data to November 2019.
-
Roy Morgan Helix Personas, Retail Oasis and Mirvac and Mirvac definition of most valuable customers in Main Trade Areas.
-
Based on Quantium research 2019.
23
06 FEBRUARY 2020
Residential Stuart Penklis Head of Residential
Folia, Tullamore, Melbourne (artist impression)
1H20 RESULTS
FY20 on track to be a record year for apartment settlements
MIRVAC’S RESIDENTIAL BRAND, TRACK RECORD AND HIGH-QUALITY PRODUCT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG RESULTS
-
1,232 settlements, on track for target of >2,500 lot settlements
-
EBIT margins of 21% supported by JV project settlements
-
Gross margins of 20% due to product mix
-
Residential pre-sales declining to $1.2bn as expected with The Eastbourne and St Leonards Square settlements and a shift to more masterplanned communities (MPC) pre-sales
1,232
LOT SETTLEMENTS
88%
OF FY20 EXPECTED RESIDENTIAL EBIT SECURED
- Defaults remain below 2%
MARKET GAINING MOMENTUM IN CORE LOCATIONS AND ACROSS PRICE POINTS
-
Achieved over 800 sales in 1H20, with strong results at new releases in Victoria at Smiths Lane, The Fabric at Altona North and the Folia apartments in Tullamore
-
Over 90% of exchanges were domestic, with continued demand from owner-occupiers
-
327 lots, St Leonards Square, SYD Apt
-
190 lots, The Eastbourne, MEL Apt
-
172 lots, Marrick & Co, SYD Apt
-
83 lots, Gainsborough Greens, BNE MPC 73 lots, Woodlea, MEL MPC
-
Ongoing reduction in completed, unsold inventory
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St Leonards Square, Sydney
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06 FEBRUARY 2020 25
1H20 RESULTS
Delivering for Mirvac’s Customers: Marrick & Co Case Study
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The
Mirvac
difference
S
u
s
C
t
s
u
y a
i
o
t
t
i
n
n
a
b
m
u
m
r
e
i
l
i
m t
y
o
C
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-
5,300 sqm of community space
-
Library dedicated to the Inner West Council along with 9 affordable homes
-
Seed funding for a One Planet Living community group
-
Key worker housing dedicated to Inner West Council
-
Resident communal areas including 'The Common', a kitchen garden and expansive roof deck with BBQ and entertaining facilities
-
Free fitness classes offered to residents[ 1]
-
First One Planet Living certified community in NSW
-
Up-cycled heritage buildings
-
Reduced operating costs from solar PV/batteries and LED lighting
-
~7,000 new plants
-
5.5 star thermal comfort
-
Rainwater reuse facilities
-
Electric vehicle recharging points, car sharing and 200 bicycle spaces
-
95% of construction waste diverted from landfill
-
New library constructed from timber reclaimed from bridge in Northern NSW
-
Quality and care in every detail – end to end seamless customer service
-
High level of purchaser satisfaction
-
Positive customer feedback on the integration of the heritage and new buildings on site
-
A truly diverse community of all ages, ethnicities and good mixture of owner occupiers and tenants
-
Res by Mirvac – strong rental demand with over 100 apartments managed and low vacancy
-
Strong sales post completion
06 FEBRUARY 2020 26
- For one year, August 2019-2020.
1H20 RESULTS
Strategic restocking and accelerated releases
RESTOCKING AT THE RIGHT TIME, AT THE RIGHT PRICE AND IN THE RIGHT PLACE
RESIDENTIAL ACQUISITIONS & ADDITIONAL
PIPELINE PROJECTS SECURED OVER THE LAST ~18 MONTHS
-
Took advantage of a slower residential market and lower competition to actively restock
-
Over the last 18 months secured an additional ~4,300 lots, predominately in capital efficient structures
-
Recently secured opportunities anticipated to begin contributing from FY21-FY25
-
Well placed to continue to take advantage of emerging opportunities, including urban mixed-use projects
-
The focus on restocking and releasing into an improving market will increase capital deployed and have a moderate negative impact on residential ROIC in the near term
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No of Product Estimated Settlement
Project State Lots [ 1] Type Commencement [2]
Wantirna South MEL 1,717 MPC FY25
Henley Brook PER 608 MPC FY21
WSU Milperra SYD 425 MPC FY24
The Fabric, Altona North MEL 507 MPC FY21
Menangle SYD 373 MPC FY21
Riverlands Milperra SYD 345 MPC FY22
Waterloo Metro Quarter SYD 308 APT FY25
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MARKET RECOVERY SUPPORTING UPCOMING RELEASES
-
Subject to planning, progressing with releases of new projects and stages in the near-term including Green Square, Riverlands Milperra, Smiths Lane, Woodlea & Olivine
-
Green Square is taking shape with DA approvals in place for over 600 apartments across 7 buildings, coinciding with a brand new community facilities being delivered. The next release of 119 luxury apartments is planned for 2H20
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~27,500
RESIDENTIAL
PIPELINE LOTS
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~7 r
y
AVERAGE LOTS
VINTAGE
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63%
PIPELINE LOTS IN
CAPITAL EFFICIENT
STRUCTURES
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75%
PIPELINE LOTS
IN NSW & VIC
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- Lot yield may vary, subject to planning. 2. Expected settlements, subject to planning.
27
06 FEBRUARY 2020
1H20 RESULTS
Residential outlook – high quality product & pipeline
RECOVERY IN THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET
SHIFTING TO A GREATER PROPORTION OF EBIT GENERATED FROM MPC
-
Established market strength continuing with leading indicators signalling ongoing momentum into 2H20
-
Momentum in land markets to improve supported by active owner-occupiers, elevated confidence and better affordability
-
Preconditions in place for investor purchasers to resume activity with trusted, high-quality developers
-
Sharp decline in dwelling commencements across all stock, particularly high-rise, resulting in undersupply of housing starts from 1H21
OUTLOOK
-
On track for >2,500 lot settlements in FY20
-
FY20 residential earnings benefiting from the completion of The Eastbourne and St Leonards Square apartment developments
-
Shift continues to a greater proportion of earnings from masterplanned communities through this part of the cycle
-
Continue to focus on restocking, unlocking and releasing in response to undersupply in our core markets of Sydney and Melbourne
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FY16-19 FY20-23 FORECAST
Apartments: 47% Apartments: 35%
MPC: 53% MPC: 65%
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Green Square, Sydney (artist impression)
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06 FEBRUARY 2020 28
Summary & Guidance
Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO & Managing Director
Pavilions, Sydney (artist impression)
1H20 RESULTS
FY20 Guidance
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FY20 guidance
-
3 4%
EPS growth
(17.6 – 17.8 cpss)
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DPS
13.0 cents
12.0 FY20 guidance 12.2c
11.6c
5%
11.0
DPS growth
11.0c
10.4c
10.0
9.9c
9.4c
9.0
9.0c
8.7c
8.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Guidance
5% 7 year DPS CAGR 1
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- Period of FY13 (DPS 8.7 cpss) to FY20, including guidance of 5% DPS growth in FY20.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 30
1H20 RESULTS
Important Notice
Mirvac Group comprises Mirvac Limited (ABN 92 003 280 699) and Mirvac Property Trust (ARSN 086 780 645). This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Mirvac Limited and Mirvac Funds Limited (ABN 70 002 561 640, AFSL number 233121) as the responsible entity of Mirvac Property Trust (collectively “Mirvac” or “the Group”). Mirvac Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Limited ordinary shares and Mirvac Funds Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Property Trust ordinary units, which are stapled together as Mirvac Group stapled securities. All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$).
The information contained in this Presentation has been obtained from or based on sources believed by Mirvac to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mirvac, its affiliates, officers, employees, agents and advisers do not make any warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation or that the information is suitable for your intended use and disclaim all responsibility and liability for the information (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
This Presentation is not financial advice or a recommendation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information in this Presentation and the Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek such legal, financial and/or taxation advice as they deem necessary or appropriate to their jurisdiction.
To the extent that any general financial product advice in respect of the acquisition of Mirvac Property Trust units as a component of Mirvac stapled securities is provided in this Presentation, it is provided by Mirvac Funds Limited. Mirvac Funds Limited and its related bodies corporate, and their associates, will not receive any remuneration or benefits in connection with that advice. Directors and employees of Mirvac Funds Limited do not receive specific payments of commissions for the authorised services provided under its Australian Financial Services License. They do receive salaries and may also be entitled to receive bonuses, depending upon performance. Mirvac Funds Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mirvac Limited.
An investment in Mirvac stapled securities is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of Mirvac, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Mirvac does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of Mirvac nor does it guarantee the repayment of capital from Mirvac or any particular tax treatment.
This Presentation contains certain “forward looking” statements. The words “expected”, “forecast”, “estimates”, “consider” and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this Presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Mirvac Group and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions. Past performance information given in this Presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Where necessary, comparative information has been reclassified to achieve consistency in disclosure with current year amounts and other disclosures.
This Presentation also includes certain non-IFRS measures including operating profit after tax. Operating profit after tax is profit before specific non-cash items and significant items. It is used internally by management to assess the performance of its business and has been extracted or derived from Mirvac’s financial statements ended 31 December 2019, which has been subject to review by its external auditors.
This Presentation is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities or any other financial products and is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering document under Australian law or any other law. It is for information purposes only.
The information contained in this presentation is current as at 31 December 2019, unless otherwise noted.
06 FEBRUARY 2020 31
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Thank
you
Reimagine Urban Life
Harold Park, Sydney
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