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MIRVAC GROUP — Earnings Release 2016
Aug 15, 2016
65328_rns_2016-08-15_d54951f7-1b3a-4852-8583-64d945908c9d.pdf
Earnings Release
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16 AUGUST 2016 FY16 R e s u l t s
Agenda
Overview
Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, CEO and Managing Director
Financial Results
Shane Gannon, Chief Financial Officer
Capital Allocation
Brett Draffen, Chief Investment Officer Office & Industrial Campbell Hanan, Head of Office & Industrial
Retail
Susan MacDonald, Head of Retail
Residential
John Carfi, Head of Residential Summary and Guidance
Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, CEO and Managing Director
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
01
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 02
Mirvac delivers on promises
13.0 cpss
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 03
Office & Industrial
28%
— Divested $787m non aligned office assets — Completed 200 George Street development — Office occupancy 96.5%
— Leased 28% of office portfolio
— Secured 110,000 sqm of pre-lease commitments
— Office WALE 6.5 years
— Industrial occupancy 100% and WALE of 7.9 years
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
04
Retail
— Leasing spreads of 3.5%
9%
-
Leasing spreads positive for 16 consecutive quarters
-
Retail occupancy 99.4%
-
Sales productivity up 9% to $9,623 per sqm
-
Retail developments delivered and on track
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
05
Residential
— Residential EBIT contribution up 51%
— 2,824 lots settlements, up 24% on FY15
— Secured pre-sales 45% higher at $2.9bn — Settlement defaults <1%
— Sales activity up 8%
— ROIC 12.4% and gross margins 24.4%
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 06
Capital Management
— Gearing 21.9%
— $15m cost reductions on track
— Highly selective in acquisitions
— Greater clarity and visibility in reporting
In summary, this business is extremely well positioned for strong growth over the coming years, providing us with the opportunity to deliver an average 9% ROIC over the next 3 years and 8-11% earnings growth in FY17
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
07
Key enablers supporting value creation
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INNOVATION PEOPLE + LEADERSHIP TECHNOLOGY SUSTAINABILITY SAFETY
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| — Hatch innovation program progressed to ideation and experimentation phase across targeted missions — Completed innovation training across senior management team — Ranked third Most Innovative Company in Australia at the 2015 BRW Most Innovative Companies Awards and won Best Innovation Program |
— Strengthened leadership team — 2016 Employee Engagement score up 4 points to 68% — Awarded PCA’s inaugural Diversity Award and WGEA Employer of choice — Launched the Mirvac Learning Academy — Established a Flexibility Charter — Launched the Building Balance initiative in construction |
— Implemented hardware and software solutions across the business to facilitate fexibility — Launched a business intelligence platform — Progressed the implementation of a customer platform — Delivered initial stage of Building Information Management (BIM) integration across development activities |
— Launched Social Return on Investment framework — Launched Mirvac Energy — Offce portfolio achieved 5.1 star NABERS rating — Delivered Mirvac’s frst SMART building at 200 George St, Sydney — Launched House with No Bills — Achieved 6 Star Green Star rating at 23 Furzer St, Canberra and 275 Kent St, Sydney |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Achieved an LTIFR of 2.2 against a target of less than 4 — 19 LTIs over 8.1m man hours worked — 80 leaders completed offcer training — Alcohol and other drugs training delivered to over 1,100 staff |
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
08
RESULTS
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 09
Achieved top end of guidance with EPS growth of 5.7%
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Statutory profit Operating EPS FFO per security DPS
$1,000m 13.0 cents 14.0 cents 10.0 cents
$1,033m 13.0c
13.5c 9.9c
750 12.5 12.0 12.7c 9.5
12.2c
9.4c
12.3c
500 $610m 12.0 10.0 9.0
9.0c
$447m 11.9c
250 11.5 8.0 8.5
0 11.0 6.0 8.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 10
Strength through diversified earnings
Operating EBIT of $640m, up 7% on FY15
-
Office & Industrial contribution impacted by $260m of asset sales in FY15
-
Retail contribution slightly up on FY15 reflecting operating model review initiatives
-
Residential contribution significantly up on FY16 reflecting improved margins and 24% growth in lot settlements
Management expense focus
| Operating results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| FY16 | FY15 | ||
| $m | $m | ||
| Offce & Industrial | 358 | 388 | |
| Retail | 117 | 113 | |
| Residential | 196 | 130 | |
| Corporate & other | (31) | (31) | |
| Operating EBIT | 640 7% |
600 |
-
Operating model review (announced Jun 15) including offshore outsourcing completed
-
Target savings ~$15m pa from FY17
-
Strengthened accountability through simplified reporting and corporate cost allocation framework
-
Improved management expense ratio
-
Office & Industrial: 0.15% (FY15: 0.21%)
-
Retail: 0.30% (FY15: 0.52%)
EBIT contribution
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Office & Industrial: 54% Retail: 17% Residential: 29%
- Group: 0.55% (FY15: 0.75%)
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
11
Maintaining an optimal capital structure
-
Maintained gearing within target range of 20-30%
-
Average borrowing cost reduced to 5.0%
-
Average debt maturity of 4.0 yrs expected to increase to 5.4 yrs following: — repayment of Sep and Nov 16 debt expiries
-
completion of oversubscribed $536m USPP issuance, with tenor of 11, 12 and 15 years, in Sep 16
-
Received Baa1 long-term issuer rating from Moody’s and maintained S&P BBB+ credit rating
-
$1,187m of cash and undrawn committed bank facilities
| Capital management metrics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| FY16 | FY15 | ||
| NTA | $1.92 | $1.74 | |
| Balance sheet gearing1 | 21.9% | 24.3% | |
| Look-through gearing | 22.8% | 25.2% | |
| ICR2 | 5.2x | 4.5x | |
| Total interest bearing debt3 | $2,707m | $2,565m | |
| Average borrowing cost4 Average debt maturity |
5.0% 4.0 yrs |
5.2% 4.3 yrs |
|
| Hedged percentage | 70% | 61% | |
| Average hedge maturity | 4.5 yrs | 5.2 yrs |
Drawn debt maturities as at Jun 16
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$600m
400
200
0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28
MTN Bank USPP
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Proforma drawn debt maturities as at Jun 16
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$600m
5.4 yrs maturity
400
200
0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32
MTN Bank USPP
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-
Net debt (at foreign exchange hedged rate) excluding leases/(total tangible assets – cash).
-
Adjusted EBITDA/finance cost expense.
-
Total interest bearing debt (at foreign exchange hedged rate) excluding leases.
-
Includes margins and line fees.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
12
High level of visibility over future cashflows
-
Consistent operating cashflows driven by rental income, residential settlements and commercial fund-through developments
-
Achieved a positive operating cashflow in FY16 of $509m with distributions cash covered
-
Residential pre-sales of $2.9bn will generate net cashflow (after construction and other costs) of over $1.1bn by FY20
-
Strong operating cashflows expected in FY17, with a skew to 2H17 driven by the timing of residential settlements
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Operating cashflow
$600m
$509m
400 $386m $399m $413m
200
0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
FY distributions
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$1,500m
1,000
500
0
FY17 FY18 FY19+
Presales cash inflows Costs to complete Cumulative
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 13
ALLOCATION
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 14
Disciplined allocation of capital delivering solid returns
-
82% of capital in FY16 allocated to investment
-
Stable income that underpins the Group distribution
-
18% of capital in FY16 allocated to development
-
Secured capital partners to fund new opportunities
-
Disposed $885m of non-aligned assets across the office and retail portfolios
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13.0%
GROUP ROIC
15.4%
IN FY16
OFFICE &
INDUSTRIAL ROIC
IN FY16
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-
Invested $370m in acquisitions with the potential to unlock future value
-
Maintained an overweight to Sydney and Melbourne
12.4%
10.4%
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 15
Capital strategy leveraging our capability
Office & Industrial
Balance Third party capital sheet assets under management
-
Deliver $500m (MGR cost to complete) of active developments
-
Increase scale through future pipeline and acquisitions in conjunction with aligned third party capital
-
Target to significantly grow third party capital under management
~~BENEFITS OF DIVERSITY~~
Retail
-
Increase balance sheet weighting organically through development and disciplined acquisitions
-
Implement strategy to increase third party capital under management at the appropriate time
-
Diversified earnings
-
Mixed use opportunities
-
Development capability
-
Changes of use
Residential
-
Maintain balance sheet capital around $2bn
-
Leverage third party capital to grow market share
-
Target $1bn third party capital under management
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 16
INDUSTRIAL
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 17
Transition to a higher quality portfolio
Repositioning the portfolio
-
NOI impacted by timing differences between non-aligned asset sales and new developments
-
Divested $787m of suburban office assets in FY16[ 1]
-
Total premium to previous book value of 7%
-
Acquired $76m of industrial facilities in NSW and VIC ($48m on 1 Jul 16)
Reinvesting capital to create new high quality assets
| Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| FY16 | FY15 | ||
| $m | $m | ||
| Offce & Industrial NOI | 331 | 350 | |
| Development EBIT Asset and funds management EBIT |
33 9 |
52 1 |
|
| Management and administration expenses | (15) | (15) | |
| Operating EBIT | 358 | 388 | |
| Revaluation gain2 | 453 | 118 | |
| Gain on sale and other | 23 | (9) | |
| Total return | 834 | 497 |
-
Completed 200 George St, Sydney development
-
Completed Treasury Building in Perth with a 25 year lease to WA Government
-
Asset and funds management EBIT up, reflecting increase in FUM
-
Strong valuation uplift in FY16 on previous book values of 9.0%[ 3]
-
61% of portfolio externally valued (42% 1H16 / 19% 2H16)
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$360m $350m ($35m)
$22m ($1m) $2m ($7m)
$331m
320
1% lfl growth
280 (62% of income)
240
200
FY15 Divestments Acqusitions Development Like for Other FY16
& developments impacted Like growth
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-
Excludes the value of the 1 Woolworths Way carpark development.
-
Includes revaluation of investment properties, IPUC, OOP and Mirvac’s share of JVA.
-
Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by book value prior to revaluation. Excludes transaction costs for acquisitions.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 18
Strong office portfolio metrics underpinned by record leasing success
-
Record leasing activity across the office portfolio, representing 28% of portfolio income
-
275 Kent St, NSW (58,460 sqm)
-
1 Woolworths Way, NSW (44,830 sqm)
-
60 Margaret St, NSW (10,030 sqm)
-
367 Collins St, Vic (8,920 sqm)
-
Strong overall leasing spreads of 5.2%
-
Secured commitments for over 110,000 sqm of new office space including: — Australian Technology Park: 93,000 sqm — 664 Collins St: 8,900 sqm
| Ofce portfolio metrics 1 | FY16 | FY15 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio value | $4,402m | $4,485m | |||
| WACR | 6.23% | 7.01% | |||
| Occupancy (by area) | 96.5% | 94.0% | |||
| WALE (by income) | 6.5 yrs | 4.3 yrs | |||
| Tenant retention | 82% | 56% | |||
| Like for like NOI growth | 0.8% | 2.6% | |||
| Investment portfolio leasing | activity | Area | Leasing Average spread incentive |
Average WALE |
|
| Offce — Renewals | 162,270 sqm | 3.4% 23% |
6.0 yrs | ||
| Offce — New leases Total Offce |
53,564 sqm 215,834 sqm |
7.3% 24% 5.2% 24% |
6.8 yrs 6.4 yrs |
- All metrics include equity accounted investments and OOP. Portfolio value includes one asset being held for development, which is excluded from all other metrics.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
19
Industrial portfolio 100% leased and long WALE
-
Further improving already exceptional metrics with >79,500 sqm of leasing activity, representing 17% of portfolio income
-
Retained Pacific Brands on a 7 year lease at 47-67 Westgate Drive, Altona North
-
Secured 10 year renewal (DHL), across 100% of GLA, at recently acquired 26-38 Harcourt, Altona North, VIC
-
34-38 Anzac Ave, Smeaton Grange, NSW (14,700 sqm)
-
85% of portfolio weighted to Sydney
| Industrial portfolio metrics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| FY16 | FY15 | ||
| Portfolio value | $729m | $661m | |
| WACR | 6.56% | 7.02% | |
| Occupancy (by area) | 100.0% | 98.7% | |
| WALE (by income) | 7.9 yrs | 7.6 yrs | |
| Like for like NOI growth | 3.2% | 3.4% |
-
Assets located in core industrial zones or gentrifying areas
-
Portfolio size to increase to $777m following the acquisition of Rydalmere on 1 Jul 16
Acquired Jun 16
26-38 Harcourt, Altona North, VIC
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Value: $28m
Yield: 8.30%
WALE: 10 yrs
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Acquired 1 Jul 16
274 Victoria Rd, Rydalmere, NSW
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Value: $48m
Yield: 6.75%
WALE: 7.4 yrs
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 20
Young office portfolio heavily weighted to Sydney and Melbourne
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Geographic Diversification Grade Diversification
FY14 FY16 FY14 FY16
Sydney CBD/Fringe CBD: 49% Sydney CBD/Fringe CBD: 57% Premium: 26% Premium: 35%
Melbourne CBD/Fringe CBD: 20% Melbourne CBD/Fringe CBD: 24% A-Grade: 62% A-Grade: 58%
Sydney/Melbourne metro: 13% Canberra: 6% B-Grade: 6% B-Grade: 4%
Canberra: 9% Brisbane: 3% C-Grade: 4% C-Grade: 2%
Brisbane: 4% Perth: 10% Other: 2% Other: 1%
Perth: 5%
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-
Overweight to largest markets, Sydney and Melbourne
-
Sydney/Melbourne CBD and fringe CBD weighting 81%, up from 69% in FY14
-
Disposed of all assets in metro markets in the past two years
-
Increased weighting to Perth with the development of Treasury Building (25-year lease to WA State Government)
-
Increased Prime grade exposure to 93% from 88% in FY14
-
57% of portfolio under 10 years
-
Completed >$800m of internally developed assets over the past two years
-
Internally developed assets require minimal capex in the medium term
- 8 Chifley development 0.1% maintenance capex since completion in 2014
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
21
Funding office investments through disposals
- Asset sales of $1.6bn since 2014, on a passing yield of 7.1%, replaced with new developments at 200 George St, Sydney, Treasury Building, Perth, 699 Bourke St, Melbourne and 8 Chifley, Sydney on a yield on cost of 7.7%
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$1,000m
Expected
development
pipeline
capex
500
0
(500)
(1,000)
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Development Capex Acquistions Disposals
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
22
200 George Street Unlocking value to generate superior returns
Maximise income
200 George Street
Value (Mirvac interest) $371m ~~Cap rate 5.3~~ 8% Ownership 50% NLA
38,970 sqm
WALE 10 yrs
- Maintained rental income during planning and approvals phase
De-risk leasing
- Secured major tenant EY for a 10-year lease term
Manage balance sheet
- Agreement with AMP to sell down 50% via a development fund-through structure
Future proofing
-
Built by Mirvac
-
Focus on technology
Management expertise
- Pre-leased 100% prior to completion[ 1]
Deliver returns
-
Completed development in Jun 16 — Delivered 33% total return
-
Includes 1% under heads of agreement.
-
Includes forecast costs to complete relating to incentives and place making.
Portfolio transition continues $1.5bn of committed development pipeline will further strengthen portfolio quality
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1H17: WAREHOUSE 1, 2H17: 2 RIVERSIDE QUAY, $2.9BN POTENTIAL PIPELINE
CALIBRE INDUSTRIAL ESTATE MELBOURNE 100% SYDNEY & MELBOURNE
6.8%
AVERAGE TARGET YOC
FY18: 664 COLLINS ST FY20/21: ATP, SYDNEY
MELBOURNE
77%
PRE-LEASED
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 24
Focus on maximising income while delivering development pipeline
FY17 outlook
-
Office portfolio well-positioned to take advantage of Sydney market
-
56% of vacancy and FY17 expires weighted to Sydney
-
Major FY17 expires: 275 Kent St (16,130 sqm) and 101 Miller St (15,610 sqm — 32% under HOA)
-
Major FY17 and FY18 expiries in Sydney CBD and North Sydney CBD
-
Office NOI expected to be skewed to 2H17
-
200 George St, Sydney and 2 Riverside Quay, Melbourne income producing in 2H17
-
Strong outlook for industrial income
-
Industrial portfolio 100% leased
-
Full year of income from Rydalmere, NSW and Altona, VIC acquisitions
-
Fixed rental increases across 74% of portfolio at an average of 3.6%
-
Development contribution supported by completion of carpark development at 1 Woolworths Way in 1H17 and 2 Riverside Quay in 2H17
-
Asset and funds management contribution supported by full year contribution from the LAT portfolio
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Office lease expiry profile (by income)
60%
49%
40
20
11% 12%
9% 7% 8%
4%
0
Vacant FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22+
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane/Perth/Canberra
Industrial lease expiry profile (by income)
60% 57%
40
20
15%
11%
8%
6%
3%
0 0%
Vacant FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22+
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 25
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 26
Delivering value through continued execution of urban strategy
-
NOI in line with FY15, with acquisitions and development completions partially offsetting $158m of asset sales in Jun 15 and development impacted assets
-
Like-for-like NOI growth of 2.4%
-
Secured future NOI in growing and densely populated catchments
-
Fully pre-leased Sydney developments Broadway, Tramsheds and Greenwood
-
Completion of Orion Springfield Central, QLD Stage 2 expansion
| Retail | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| FY16 $m |
FY15 $m |
||
| Retail NOI | 125 | 125 | |
| Asset management EBIT | 3 | 2 | |
| Management and administration expenses Operating EBIT Revaluation gain2 Gains on sale and other |
(11) 117 127 5 |
(14) 113 42 6 |
|
| Total return | 249 | 161 |
-
Acquisition of Toombul Shopping Centre, QLD ($233m)
-
50% acquisition of East Village, NSW on 1 July 2016 ($155m)
-
Revaluation gains reflecting an uplift on previous book values of 6.3%[ 1]
-
Cap rate compression of 39 bps from Jun 15 to 6.10%
-
Maintained high occupancy of 99.4%
-
Management and administration expenses reduced due to initiatives identified in operating model review
-
Divestment of Como Centre, VIC at a 32% premium to Dec 15 book value
-
Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by book value prior to revaluation. Excludes transaction costs for acquisitions.
-
Includes revaluation of investment properties, IPUC and OOP.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 27
Focused portfolio delivering sales and leasing outperformance
-
Leased ~14% of portfolio GLA (410 transactions across over 52,000sqm)
-
Positive leasing spreads of 3.5%
-
16 consecutive quarters of positive leasing spreads
-
Delivered strong total comparable MAT growth of 5.4%
-
Includes growth in specialties of 4.2%[ 1 ]
-
Major tenant productivity >25% above Urbis benchmarks
-
Comparable specialty sales productivity up 9% to $9,623/sqm, and specialty occupancy costs reduced 70bps to 15.3%
| Retail sales by category | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY16 | FY16 Comparable |
FY15 Comparable |
||
| Total MAT | MAT growth | MAT growth | ||
| Supermarkets Discount Department Stores Mini-majors |
$944m $247m $433m |
3.9%2 5.4% 9.6% |
7.3% 2.8% 4.2% |
|
| Specialties | $1,006m | 4.2%1 | 3.8% | |
| Other Retail | $211m | 9.8% | 1.4% | |
| Total | $2,841m | 5.4% | 4.7% |
-
Sales productivity growth ahead of peers
-
Foot traffic up ~3% and average spend up >2% on like for like portfolio
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Growth in comparable specialty sales productivity: Jun 13 to Dec 15
30%
25%
20
16%
10 9% 10%
3%
0
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Mirvac
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-
Includes Toombul Shopping Centre, acquired in Jun 16 and Broadway Sydney with specialties impacted by development (growth 5.6% excluding Broadway).
-
Impacted by replacement of Bi-Lo supermarket with Bunnings Warehouse at Toombul, QLD.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 28
Trends support clear strategy
| Outlook Mirvac strategy |
|
|---|---|
| Urbanisation | — Densifcation of eastern seaboard cities — 100% urban and metropolitan markets |
| — Higher population growth and lower unemployment — Record infrastructure investment — Overweight to Sydney |
|
| Changing economic drivers |
— Lower Australian dollar driving growth in services and knowledge economy — Tourism and education sectors continue to grow — Newly appointed Tourism Manager focused on opportunities at six key assets including Sydney waterfront locations — Inner Sydney assets and Orion to leverage education exposure |
| The evolving customer experience |
— Demand for quality of services, technology, dining, entertainment and convenience — Improve dining, entertainment and leisure offers — Leveraging night-time economy — Roll out of digital initiatives — Launched ‘Experience Retail’ brand |
| Strong demand for quality retail |
— Continued deep demand for quality assets — AREITs focus shifted to growth through developments — Portfolio 100% on strategy — Capture organic growth through development and repositioning, 13 of 15 assets identifed — Scale of developments supported by sub-market fundamentals — Demonstrated ability to create and acquire on-strategy assets |
SYDNEY ATTRACTING 80%
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
29
Increasing our inner urban footprint in FY17
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M2
Greenwood
Rhodes
Waterside
Birkenhead
Point
M4 Metcentre
Harbourside
SYDNEY CBD
Tramsheds
Broadway Sydney
East Village
M1
M5
Sydney
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TRAMSHEDS, SYDNEY
-
3km from Sydney CBD
-
New 6,200 sqm urban village
-
Densely populated infill site
-
Light rail access
-
Key retailers: Gelato Messina, Bodega 1904, Fish & Co, Butcher M1
-
& The Farmer and Supamart IGA
BROADWAY, SYDNEY
TOOMBUL, BRISBANE — 7km from Brisbane CBD Toombul Shopping Centre — 44,000 sqm centre acquired Jun 16
-
2km from Sydney CBD
-
Expansion of the most productive shopping centre in Australia[ 1]
-
Key retailers: H&M, Sephora, Calvin Klein, MAC, Din Tai Fung and Victoria’s Secret
-
Gentrifying and densifying trade area
-
BRISBANE CBD — Excellent arterial and public transport links
-
Repositioning opportunity
-
M1
-
Brisbane
EAST VILLAGE, SYDNEY[ 2]
-
3km from Sydney CBD
-
33,000 sqm centre acquired Jul 16
-
Population growth forecast 7% pa next 10 years
-
Retail spending growth forecast >9% pa next 10 years
-
Over 50,000 sqm. Source: Big Guns Survey Mar 16.
-
49.9% equity accounted investment.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
30
Acquisitions and developments underpin EBIT growth in FY17
~~ACQUISITIONS~~
~~DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE~~
~~FY17 OUTLOOK~~
East Village, Sydney
-
Acquired 1 Jul 16
-
Strong sales growth continues
-
Expected IRR >8.5%
-
Management commenced Dec 15
Toombul Shopping Centre, Brisbane
-
Acquired Jun 16
-
Expected IRR >8.5%
-
Master planning underway to reposition the asset to better meet the needs of its trade area
Orion Springfield Central, Stage 2, QLD
- 97% retail leased, completed 2H16
Greenwood Plaza, Sydney
- 100% leased, completed Jul 16
Tramsheds, Sydney
-
100% leased, expected completion 1H17 Broadway, Sydney
-
100% leased, expected completion 1H17
Future near term developments
- DAs approved at Birkenhead Point, Sydney and Kawana Shoppingworld, QLD
CONTINUE TO DRIVE HIGH-PERFORMING PORTFOLIO
FY17 Targets
-
Increase sales productivity to $10,000/sqm
-
Occupancy >99%
-
Leasing spreads >2%
-
EBIT growth >25% on FY16
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 31
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 32
Residential results up 51% on FY15
-
EBIT growth of 51% driven by
-
NSW: Harold Park, The Avenue and Googong
-
VIC: Yarra’s Edge and Tullamore
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Completed 2,824 gross settlements, up 24% on FY15
-
81% weighted to masterplanned communities
-
Includes 258 FIRB settlements (142 completed 4Q16)
-
Defaults maintained at less than 1%
| Residential results 1 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| FY16 | FY15 | ||
| $m | $m | ||
| Revenue | 1,119 | 964 | |
| Development EBIT | 209 | 142 | |
| Management and administration expenses | (13) | (12) | |
| Operating EBIT | 196 | 130 | |
| Invested capital2 | 1,625 | 1,377 | |
| Average invested capital | 1,575 | 1,398 |
-
Secured a record $2.9bn[ 1] of pre-sales, up from $2.0bn at FY15
-
Entered in to a JV partnership with Ping An Real Estate for the development of projects, The Finery and St Leonards Square, NSW
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24.4%
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12.4%
RESIDENTIAL ROIC [ 2]
9.3%
FY15
17.5%
EBIT MARGINS
13.4%
FY15
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-
Includes MGR share of JVA and Mirvac managed funds unless noted otherwise.
-
Refer to Additional Information for detailed calculation.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
33
Market delivered strong levels of activity in FY16
— Sales activity of 3,830 lots, up from ~3,540 in FY15
-
72% weighted to Sydney and Melbourne
-
1H16: 51%, 2H16: 49%
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Strong sales at existing masterplanned communities projects
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Woodlea, VIC (889 lots)
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Googong, NSW (343 lots)
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Tullamore, VIC (145 lots)
-
Brighton Lakes, NSW (117 lots)
Sales activity by lots
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4,000 lots
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
NSW VIC WA QLD
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-
Strong sales at existing apartment projects
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Hope St, QLD (199 lots)
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Yarra’s Edge, VIC (175 lots)
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Harold Park, NSW (151 lots)
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Activated over 3,400 lots with the launch of new projects, including:
-
St Leonards Square, NSW: Stage 1, 90% pre-sold
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The Finery, NSW: Stage 1, 89% pre-sold
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Gledswood Hills, NSW: Various stages, 83% pre-sold
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The Eastbourne, VIC: 55% pre-sold
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Ascot Green, QLD: Stage 1, 43% pre-sold
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
34
Managing our FIRB exposure
FY16 observations
-
Settlement delays post restrictions
-
Alternative funding sources accessed
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Defaults maintained below 1%
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FIRB buyers remain active post restrictions
Our exposure
-
27% of pre-sales offshore
-
Diversified across 20 projects
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Domestic owner occupier: 41% Domestic investor: 32% Mainland China: 21% Offshore other: 6%
- Weighted to Sydney and Melbourne market
Managing our risk
-
Internal approval processes and limits
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Robust sales contracts
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Full recourse and unconditional
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In-house sales and marketing team
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Commission structures that incentivise settlement
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Pro-active engagement program with customers and lenders
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FY17: 31% FY18: 41% FY19+: 28%
FY17 outlook
-
31% of FIRB apartment pre-sales roll off in FY17
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FY17 settlement target includes a contingency for settlement delays
-
Expect to maintain FIRB pre-sales exposure below 30%
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 35
Outperformance in a lower growth environment
Market
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Markets well supported by very low interest rates and competitive lending environment
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Mature stage of supply cycle means brand, certainty and location at forefront
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Future demand expected to be well balanced between apartments and housing
Revenue
-
$2.9bn of revenue pre-sold, securing 84% and 55% of expected FY17 and FY18 EBIT respectively
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Brand, quality and project locations supports continued demand for Mirvac product
-
High level of repeat buyers
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Pre-sales expected setlement profile
50% 47%
40
30 28%
25%
20
10
0
FY17 FY18 FY19+
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-
No reliance on escalation in feasibilities near term
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Increase in fee income as assets under management grow
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Well-balanced portfolio across product type
Cost
-
Expect gross development margins to remain above through cycle target in near term
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Construction cost escalation included in feasibilities
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Capitalised interest 9% of inventory
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Target 70–80% trade coverage prior to commencement of construction
Investment
- Current pipeline supports approximately 10 years of volumes
83% of inventory in active projects
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Active projects: 83% Capitalised interest: 9% Non-core projects: 5% Planning stages: 3%
-
Selective and disciplined future acquisitions
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83% of inventory relates to projects under construction or released to market
-
Pre-sales support positive cash flow outlook
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 36
Targeting significant uplift in returns underpinned by earnings visibility
-
Expect to achieve Residential ROIC in FY17 of >15%
-
Targeting >3,300 lot settlements in FY17
-
2,600 of target lots pre-sold
-
15% growth on FY16
-
Includes a contingency for settlement delays
-
84% of expected FY17 Residential EBIT secured by pre-sales
-
Top 10 projects expected to contribute ~80% of FY17 earnings
FY17 major EBIT contributors
| FY17 % Apartments lot target pre-sold |
Masterplanned FY17 % communities lot target pre-sold |
|---|---|
| 1Moreton Bondi, NSW 191 99% 2Waterfront, QLD1 290 86% 3Yarra’s Edge, VIC2 128 95% 4Green Square, NSW 164 100% 5Hope St, QLD 107 100% |
1Tullamore, VIC 177 100% |
| 2Brighton Lakes, NSW 157 55% |
|
| 3Gledswood Hills, NSW 140 66% |
|
| 4Jack Road, VIC 119 82% |
|
| 5Woodlea, VIC 573 98% |
- Five major apartment projects
~~90% PRE-SOLD~~
- ~$660m of secured pre-sales
- ~$175m FIRB pre-sales
- Expected average age on settlement: 1.6 years
-
Five major masterplanned communities projects — $392m of secured pre-sales
- All projects located in NSW and VIC
-
Current pipeline supports over 14,000 potential lot settlements over the next four years
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Lot setlements
4,000 lots 3,300 FY17 lot
settlement target
3,000
>15%
2,000
1,000
0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Lots settled Lots pre-sold
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- Stages 1 & 2. 2. Tower 10.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 37
& GUIDANCE
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 38
Clear and focused strategy expected to deliver attractive securityholder returns
Urban strategy with overweight to Sydney and Melbourne
Highly visible and defensive cash flows
- 98.3% investment portfolio occupancy
Targeting attractive securityholder returns
Flex our activity through the cycle
-
5.8 year investment portfolio WALE
-
84% and 55% of expected FY17 and FY18 Residential EBIT secured by pre-sales
POTENTIAL TO DELIVER 9%+
3 YEAR AVERAGE GROUP ROIC
Unlock the full potential and maximise the value of our assets
Attractive return on invested capital
-
Target 3 year average Group ROIC 9%+
-
Target Residential ROIC in FY17: >15%
Maintain an appropriate and diversified capital structure and cost base
-
Expect to continue to exceed our WACC through cycle
-
8 11%
EPS GROWTH IN FY17
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 39
FY17 Guidance
Operating EPS guidance 14.0 – 14.4 cpss 8-11% growth DPS guidance 10.2 – 10.4 cpss 3-5% growth Residential ROIC target >15%
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Moreton, Bondi, Sydney Artists impression
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MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016 40
Important Notice
Mirvac Group comprises Mirvac Limited (ABN 92 003 280 699) and Mirvac Property Trust (ARSN 086 780 645). This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Mirvac Limited and Mirvac Funds Limited (ABN 70 002 561 640, AFSL number 233121) as the responsible entity of Mirvac Property Trust (collectively “Mirvac” or “the Group”). Mirvac Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Limited ordinary shares and Mirvac Funds Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Property Trust ordinary units, which are stapled together as Mirvac Group stapled securities. All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$).
The information contained in this Presentation has been obtained from or based on sources believed by Mirvac to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mirvac, its affiliates, officers, employees, agents and advisers do not make any warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation or that the information is suitable for your intended use and disclaim all responsibility and liability for the information (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
This Presentation is not financial advice or a recommendation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information in this Presentation and the Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek such legal, financial and/or taxation advice as they deem necessary or appropriate to their jurisdiction.
To the extent that any general financial product advice in respect of the acquisition of Mirvac Property Trust units as a component of Mirvac stapled securities is provided in this Presentation, it is provided by Mirvac Funds Limited. Mirvac Funds Limited and its related bodies corporate, and their associates, will not receive any remuneration or benefits in connection with that advice. Directors and employees of Mirvac Funds Limited do not receive specific payments of commissions for the authorised services provided under its Australian Financial Services License. They do receive salaries and may also be entitled to receive bonuses, depending upon performance. Mirvac Funds Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mirvac Limited.
An investment in Mirvac stapled securities is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of Mirvac, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Mirvac does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of Mirvac nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from Mirvac or any particular tax treatment.
This Presentation contains certain “forward looking” statements. The words “expected”, “forecast”, “estimates”, “consider” and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this Presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Mirvac Group and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions. Past performance information given in this Presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Where necessary, comparative information has been reclassified to achieve consistency in disclosure with current year amounts and other disclosures.
This Presentation also includes certain non-IFRS measures including operating profit after tax. Operating profit after tax is profit before specific non-cash items and significant items. It is used internally by management to assess the performance of its business and has been extracted or derived from Mirvac’s financial statements ended 30 June 2016, which has been subject to audit by its external auditors.
This Presentation is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities or any other financial products and is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering document under Australian law or any other law. It is for information purposes only.
The information contained in this presentation is current as at 30 June 2016, unless otherwise noted.
MIRVAC FY16 RESULTS 16 AUGUST 2016
41
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THANK Y O U