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MIRVAC GROUP — Annual Report 2017
Aug 16, 2017
65328_rns_2017-08-16_bec7a271-f168-4f0b-8de9-fcf3913b996d.pdf
Annual Report
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Heading
FY17 RESULTS
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17 AUGUST 2017
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 A
Agenda
Financial Results
Overview
Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz CEO and Managing Director
Shane Gannon
Chief Financial Officer
Page 02 Page 08
Capital Office & Allocation Industrial
Brett Draffen
Campbell Hanan
Head of Office & Industrial
Chief Investment Officer
Page 13
Page 18
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Retail
Residential Summary + Guidance
Susan MacDonald
Stuart Penklis
Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz CEO and Managing Director
Head of Retail Head of Residential
Page 24
Page 29
Page 37
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 01
~~OVERVIEW~~ ~~Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz CEO and Managing Director~~
Reimagine urban life
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Continued to redefine landscapes in FY17, creating more sustainable, connected and vibrant urban environments
2 RIVERSIDE QUAY, MELBOURNE
UNISON, BRISBANE
BROADWAY, SYDNEY
TRAMSHEDS, SYDNEY
THE MORETON, SYDNEY TULLAMORE, MELBOURNE
BRIGHTON LAKES, SYDNEY
GREENWOOD PLAZA, NORTH SYDNEY
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 03
Another year delivering on our promises
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Highly visible 14.4 cpss
and defensive cash FY17 EPS 18%
tainable
flows, sus
earnings growth and Residential ROIC
attractive return on 11% exceeded target
invested capital EPS Growth of 15%
Delivered 10.4 cpss
top end of FY17 DPS 7%
EPS & DPS
FY13-17
5%
guidance EPS CAGR
DPS Growth
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 04
Transformed portfolio positioned for future growth
OFFICE & INDUSTRIAL
FUTURE GROWTH SUPPORTED BY
-
Young portfolio transformed through Mirvac’s deep development capabilities
-
~$4.5bn[ 1] of new assets created or being created between FY12 and FY21
-
High quality income with growth underpinned by development pipeline and strong leasing
GROWTH through asset creation
- Strategic 84% weighting to Sydney and Melbourne
RESIDENTIAL
FUTURE GROWTH SUPPORTED BY
A CLEAR POINT OF DIFFERENCE
-
High quality pipeline with attractive embedded margins — >50% of lot pipeline expected to generate >25% gross margins
-
Strategic 71% lot pipeline weighting to NSW and Victoria
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RETAIL
FUTURE GROWTH SUPPORTED BY
-
Strategic weighting to the best and most resilient urban markets with
-
~65% higher population growth
-
~27% higher median total personal weekly income
-
~21% lower than average unemployment
-
~10x greater population density
-
Overweight to resilient and growth categories to meet customer preferences with
-
No exposure to department stores
-
Higher exposure to food and beverage, entertainment and non-retail categories
-
Increased experiential investment
CAPITAL
FUTURE GROWTH SUPPORTED BY
-
Strong brand and customer loyalty
-
Government policy, infrastructure investment, continued densification and urban regeneration
-
Strong and flexible balance sheet with low 23.4% gearing
-
High quality capital partners with ~$6bn of third-party capital under management
-
100% interest of Office & Industrial developments completed between FY12 and FY17, plus estimated end value of 477 Collins Street, 664 Collins Street, Australian Technology Park and Calibre
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 05
Success driven by high performing team
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2017 Employee engagement comparison [ 1]
90%
3%
85
9%
80
75
Mirvac Global high performing norm Australian national norm
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88%
2017
Engagement
Score [ 1]
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Comparison of companies with low and high employee engagement [ 1]
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30% Average profit margin
27%
20
10 10%
0
Companies with low employee engagement Companies with high employee engagement
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76%
of Mirvac employees
have flexible work
arrangements
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Companies with high employee engagement[ 1]
-
~3x higher average profit margin
-
~6.5 fewer days lost from absenteeism
-
~41% lower retention risk
-
Undertaken by Willis Towers Watson.
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 06
Investing to support our future growth
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Safety Innovation People + Leadership Technology Sustainability
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| > | Renewed Health, Safety and | > | Mirvac’s Hatch innovation | > | Employee engagement | > | Implemented technology | > | First megawatt of renewable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environment (HSE) strategy, | program was identifed by | of 88%, above the Global | solutions that have helped | energy installed, a key milestone | |||||
| Thrive, to pursue safety | UTS Business School as an | High Performing Norm1 | transform the way we work | to meet our net positive by | |||||
| > > |
excellence and enhance health and wellbeing Strengthened HSE standards for engaging and managing principal contractors, service providers and consultants Introduced random drug and alcohol testing at construction sites we manage and control, to help ensure the safety of all workers and visitors |
> > |
example of a best practice program and invited to be the focus of an academic case study Multiple experiments relating to Mirvac’s innovation missions underway; e.g. Shopping Nanny is being trialled in two centres to enhance our customer’s experience Reach of the Hatch methodology has extended from innovation missions to business as usual opportunities |
> > > |
Awarded the Employer of Choice for Gender Equality citation for third year in a row Launched the My Simple Thing initiative across the Group; 76% of Mirvac employees now have fexible work arrangements in place Successful progress with our Transforming the Way We Work strategy across Mirvac, improving employee experience through a combination of culture, place, fexibility and technology |
> > > > > |
Extended Mirvac’s Business Intelligence platform and capabilities Deployed the Salesforce customer platform across the Mirvac business Implemented Building Information Modelling (BIM) across design, construction and development activities Continued to further strengthen cybersecurity capabilities to protect information and systems Launched Hoist, a JV with York |
> > > |
2030 target of our This Changes Everything sustainability strategy Launched our frst Reconciliation Action Plan 5.1 Star NABERS energy rating across our offce portfolio Received Australia’s frst Gold WELL certifcation for our tenancy at 200 George St, recognising excellence in human health and wellness initiatives |
| Butter Factory, to establish | |||||||||
| tech start-up ecosystems at | |||||||||
| ATP and other Mirvac buildings |
- Undertaken by Willis Towers Watson.
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 07
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~~FINANCIAL RESULTS~~
~~Shane Gannon Chief Financial Offcer~~
Continuing to deliver strong financial trajectory
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Statutory profit
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Statutory profit Operating EPS NTA per security DPS
$1,250m $1,164m 14.5 cents 14.4c $2.25 10.5 cents
10.4c
$1,033m
$2.13
1,000
13.5 10.0
9.9c
2.00
750 13.0c
$1.92
$610m 12.5 9.5
12.3c 9.4c
500 $447m
11.9c 1.75 $1.74
11.5 9.0 9.0c
250 $1.66
$1.62
$140m 10.9c 8.7c
0 10.5 1.50 8.5
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
13% 11% 11% 10% 5% 72%
Statutory profit EPS growth NTA per security FFO per security DPS growth FY17 payout
growth on FY16 on FY16 growth on FY16 growth on FY16 on FY16 ratio
7.1% FY13–17 CAGR
4.6% FY13–17 CAGR
7.2% FY13–17 CAGR
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 09
Delivered 11% earnings growth
| O&I EBIT growth impacted by repositioning activities, including prior year divestments and loss of income from assets transitioning to development phase, partially offset by contributions from completed developments and acquisitions Strong Retail EBIT growth driven by full year beneft of prior year acquisitions and completed developments Very strong Residential EBIT growth driven by record lot settlements and high margins Improved Corporate & other result driven by continued focus on overhead management and operational effciencies |
O&I EBIT growth impacted by repositioning activities, including prior year divestments and loss of income from assets transitioning to development phase, partially offset by contributions from completed developments and acquisitions |
|
|---|---|---|
| Operating results FY17 FY16 $m $m Offce & Industrial 319 358 Retail 156 117 Residential 302 196 Corporate & other (27) (31) Operating EBIT 750 640 Operating proft after tax 534 482 Funds from operations 547 500 Adjusted funds from operations 487 438 Statutory proft after tax 1,164 1,033 11% 33% 54% 13% 17% 11% 13% |
||
| Improved Corporate & other result driven by continued focus on overhead management and operational effciencies |
||
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O&I EBIT growth impacted by repositioning activities, including prior year divestments and loss of income from assets transitioning to development phase, partially offset by contributions from completed developments and acquisitions Strong Retail EBIT growth driven by full year benefit of prior year acquisitions and completed developments Very strong Residential EBIT growth driven by record lot settlements and high margins Improved Corporate & other result driven by continued focus on overhead management and operational efficiencies Record statutory profit driven by operating EBIT growth and net property revaluation gains of 6.4%[ 1] in FY17 totalling $540m across the O&I and Retail portfolios
- Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by book value prior to revaluation. Includes revaluation gain for investments in JVs and excludes transaction costs for acquisitions.
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 10
Investing for future growth
-
Cost saving targets achieved to allow investments into strategic areas to support future growth
-
Salesforce
-
Business Intelligence
-
Building Information Modelling (BIM)
-
Business development
-
Stakeholder relations
-
Continue to pursue opportunities for greater efficiency and a more variable cost base
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Group operating overhead expenses[ 1] and EBIT profile
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$800m
$750m
700
$640m
600 $600m
500
400
300
200
$165m $160m $154m
100
FY15 FY15 FY16 FY16 FY17 FY17
Group operating Group operating Group operating
EBIT overhead EBIT overhead EBIT overhead
expenses expenses expenses
3% reduction 4% reduction
7% growth
17% growth
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- Excluding Residential selling and marketing expenses
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 11
Solid platform underpins future earnings growth
Strong capital position and flexible balance sheet maintained
- FY17 gearing at lower end of target range of 20-30%
$749m of cash and undrawn committed bank facilities
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23.4% 4.8% 6.2 rs
y
Gearing [ 1] Average Average debt
borrowing cost [ 2] maturity
5.0% FY16 4.0yrs FY16
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-
Significant headroom under financial covenants
-
Distributions continue to be funded from operating cash flows
-
Strong operating cashflows expected in 2H18 driven by the timing of residential settlements
-
80-90% of FY18 Residential EBIT expected to be delivered in 2H18
-
FY18 distributions expected to be fully cash covered
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$600m
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$509m $513m
400 $386m $399m $413m
200
0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Operating cash flows FY distributions
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-
Net debt (at foreign exchange hedged rate) excluding leases/(total tangible assets – cash)
-
Includes margins and fees
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 12
~~CAPITAL ALLOCATION~~
~~Brett Draffen Chief Investment Offcer~~
Disciplined approach — capital allocated to the strongest markets
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75% CAPITAL ALLOCATION TO SYDNEY & MELBOURNE
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$111bn Australia’s Australia’s Australia’s Main Largest
largest largest and contributors Australia’s beneficiaries
Sydney & Melbourne largest & deepest populations most important to Australia ’ s key gateway of A ustralia’s
NSW & VIC Government employment with strong knowledge GDP and GDP cities net overseas
infrastructure investment markets
growth economies growth migration
spending [ 1]
75–80% INVESTMENT 20–25% DEVELOPMENT
Secure yield – underpins Group distribution Disciplined growth
$9.2bn [ 2] $1.8bn
Office,
Office & Industrial Retail Residential Industrial & Retail
$5.9bn $3.1bn $1.6bn $0.2bn
84% Syd/Melb 67% Syd/Melb Apartments MPC 69% Syd/Melb
$0.9bn $0.7bn
61% 58%
Syd/Melb Syd/Melb
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- Excludes Federal Government funding for projects including the Western Sydney Airport and Melbourne to Brisbane Inland Rail projects. Source: NSW Budget 2017-18; Victorian Budget 2017-18 2. Includes $0.2bn relating to investment in Tucker Box JV and other investments
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 14
Strong returns on invested capital
-
Attractive risk adjusted returns on invested capital
-
Office & Industrial and Retail benefiting from 6.4% net valuation gains totalling $540m
-
Residential ROIC driven by record EBIT contribution, capital efficient structures and discipline
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12.4%
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Group ROIC
18.0%
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Residential
ROIC
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13.1%
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Office & Industrial
ROIC
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9.0%
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Retail ROIC
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 15
Leverage capital partnerships to secure opportunities
Third-party Balance capital under sheet assets management
-
Office & Industrial > Deliver $2.3bn of active developments[ 1] — 71% committed[ 2] $6.2bn
-
Continue to grow, leveraging third-party capital $4.9bn — Office & 50% sale of 664 Collins Street to Morgan Stanley (4.97% cap rate) Industrial
-
— 50% sale of 477 Collins Street to Suntec REIT (4.80% cap rate)
-
— Deliver Australian Technology Park with AMP and Sunsuper
-
Retail > Increase balance sheet weighting organically through development and disciplined acquisitions
-
Increase third-party capital $3.1bn $0.9bn — Targeting 50% sell-down of Kawana Shoppingworld Retail
-
Residential > Maintain balance sheet capital around $2bn > Leverage third-party capital to grow market share and drive capital efficiency $1.8bn[ 3] $0.2bn
-
Targeting $1bn third-party capital under management Residential
-
- Represents 100% of expected development end value of 477 Collins St, 664 Collins Street, Australian Technology Park and Calibre 2. Including heads of agreements 3. Inclusive of $0.2bn of deferred land and revenue liabilities associated with capital efficient structures
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Total
assets under
management
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$11.1bn
k13% on
FY16
$4.0bn
k10% on
FY16
$2.0bn
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 16
Future returns driven by development activities
- The proportion of total returns since FY15 from capital has been driven higher by cap rate compression
Over the last 3 to 5 years we have divested non-core assets, re-investing this capital to fund our development pipeline and repositioning assets across our portfolio
Expectation of reduced reliance on capital appreciation with greater contribution from income growth driven by delivery of development pipeline
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Shifting return composition — Office, Industrial, Retail
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100% ROIC composition
26% 35%
75
53%
50
65%
74%
25 47%
0
FY15 FY17 FY20 expectation
Income Capital
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664 COLLINS STREET, VIC
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 17
~~OFFICE & INDUSTRIAL~~
~~Campbell Hanan Head of Offce & Industrial~~
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Office portfolio transition now accelerating
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97.6% 5.92% 6.5yrs
Office Occupancy Office Cap Rate Office WALE
96.5% FY16 6.23% FY16 6.5yrs FY16
82% 95%
Weighted to Sydney Prime
and Melbourne [ 1] A-grade [ 1]
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FY17 Key Achievements
- Maintained 6.5yr WALE
- Strong 8.3% valuation uplift
- Completed 2 Riverside Quay development ahead of schedule
- 10.2% effective growth through reduced incentives
- Maintained attractive leasing spreads of 5.0%
- Successful sell-down of 644 and 477 Collins Street to new capital partners
-
2H17 NOI $14m higher than 1H17
-
Executed 113,200 sqm of leasing deals[ 2]
-
Attractive 5.0% leasing spreads[ 3]
-
Incentives reduced from 24% to 19%[ 3]
-
Strong net valuation uplift of $388m reflecting annual value growth of 8.3%[ 4] — 67% of portfolio externally valued during the year
-
Capitalisation rate compression of 31bps
-
Like-for-like NOI growth impacted by transformation activities to reposition portfolio
Major Office leasing deals
| Major Offce leasing | deals | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenant | Asset | Sector | Area (sqm) |
| Various | 664 Collins St, VIC | Offce | 26,2005 |
| Deloitte | 477 Collins St, VIC | Offce | 22,000 |
| Various | 101 Miller St, NSW | Offce | 16,633 |
| Westpac | 275 Kent St, NSW | Offce | 15,715 |
| WPP | 380 St Kilda Rd, VIC | Offce | 3,815 |
-
By book value
-
Including 48,200sqm of development leasing at 664 Collins Street and 477 Collins Street
-
Excludes development leasing
-
Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by book value prior to revaluation. Excludes transaction costs for acquisitions
-
Including heads of agreements
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 19
Industrial portfolio providing high quality and resilient income
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95.3% 6.37% 7.0yrs 94% Industrial Occupancy[ 1] Industrial Cap Rate Industrial WALE[ 1] Weighted to Sydney 100% FY16 6.56% FY16 7.9yrs FY16 and Melbourne[ 2]
FY17 Key Achievements
-
Maintained attractive 7.0yr WALE
-
Acquired two Sydney properties
-
Completed Calibre Building 1 – 100% leased
-
Valuation uplift of $40m reflecting annual growth of 4.8%[ 3]
-
Commenced construction of Calibre Buildings 2, 3 and 4 and secured tenant pre-commitments[ 4] for Buildings 2 and 4
-
54% of portfolio externally valued during the year
-
19bps cap rate compression
Major Industrial leasing deals
| Tenant | Asset | Sector | Area (sqm) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confdential | Calibre (Building 4), NSW | Industrial | 31,100 |
| CEVA Logistics | Calibre (Building 1), NSW | Industrial | 19,093 |
| Confdential5 | Calibre (Building 2), NSW | Industrial | 17,000 |
| Clarke Equipment | 1-47 Percival Road, NSW | Industrial | 5,435 |
-
Industrial occupancy increases to 99.4% and WALE increases to 7.3 yrs, excluding impact of acquisition of 36 Gow Street, Padstow 2. By book value
-
Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by book value prior to revaluation. Excludes transaction costs for acquisitions
-
Includes heads of agreement for Building 2
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CALIBRE BUILDING 1, 60 WALLGROVE RD, NSW
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- Heads of agreement executed post 30 June 2017
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 20
Modernisation of Office & Industrial portfolio driving future earnings growth
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Additional high quality income from office and industrial developments [1] FY17-21 Recent development completions and
Recent completions $2.3bn active development pipeline $2.3bn active development pipeline
$90m NOI
40%
committed have potential to deliver >$90m
80
of additional annual NOI by FY21
70
100%
committed
60
>$90m p.a. >$250m
50
53%
committed Potential additional Potential fair value
uplift between
40 annual NOI by FY21 FY18–21 [ 2]
100%
committed
30
100% leased 71%
100% leased
20 100% leased
of active development
pipeline committed [ 6]
10 >$150m 6.2%
Potential development
Year 1 fully let NOI Average yield
0 EBIT between
200 George St Calibre B1 2 Riverside 664 Collins St Calibre B2-5 ATP 477 Collins St Fixed NOI growth [ 5] FY18–21 [ 4] on cost [ 3]
Quay post year 1 by FY21
Committed [ 6] Uncommitted
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-
Based on 100% occupancy and 50% ownership, other than ATP at 33.3% ownership and Calibre (all buildings) at 100% ownership
-
Potential fair value uplift based on 4.97% cap rate for 664 Collins Street, 4.80% cap rate for 477 Collins Street, 5.0% cap rate for Australian Technology Park and 6.0% cap rate for Calibre buildings
-
Active development pipeline only
-
Potential future development EBIT from developments partially sold-down to capital partners (664 Collins Street, 477 Collins Street and Australian Technology Park developments)
-
Expected fixed NOI growth relates to both recently completed projects and active development projects
-
Includes heads of agreements
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 21
Transformation of Office portfolio since FY12
Evolution of Office portfolio
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$6.0bn
4.0 ~$4.2bn
New office assets
2.0 created or being
created between
68% 82% FY12 & FY21 [ 1]
33%
0
FY12 FY17 FY21 expectation
Properties developed or repositioned by Mirvac Other properties
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664 Collins Street case study
664 COLLINS STREET, MELBOURNE
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100% committed[ 2] > 10.3 year WALE > Quality tenant covenants > 50% sale at 4.97% cap rate > 6.8% target yield on cost > >30% return on cost target
477 Collins Street case study
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Young
High quality portfolio with
Core CBD
tenants with lower expected
locations
long WALE maintenance
capex
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40% committed > Quality tenant covenant > 50% sale at 4.80% cap rate > 6.0% target yield on cost > >30% return on cost target
477 COLLINS STREET, MELBOURNE
-
100% interest
-
Including heads of agreements
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 22
Strong FY18 outlook
Office & Industrial portfolio benefiting from high allocation to Sydney and Melbourne markets
-
84% of portfolio strategically weighted to the strongly performing Sydney and Melbourne markets
-
Exposure to Melbourne office expected to reach ~30% by FY21 from 24% today
-
97% of FY18 Office expiries and 100% of FY18 Industrial expiries relate to Sydney and Melbourne properties
Strong Office & Industrial outlook for FY18
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5-year Office lease expiry profile (by income)
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15%
12% 12%
10
8%
6% 6%
5
2%
0
Vacant FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane/Perth/Canberra
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-
Strong double digit like-for-like NOI growth expected in FY18
-
FY18 earnings growth driven by
-
Full year benefit of 2 Riverside Quay and 200 George Street together with higher contributions from 60 Margaret Street and 101 Miller Street
-
Completion of 664 Collins Street development (development profit and NOI)
-
Full year contributions from Calibre Building 1 completion and Gow Street acquisition
-
Targeted divestment of industrial asset at Pratt Boulevard, Chicago
-
Future growth driven by
-
Completions of 664 Collins Street, 477 Collins Street, Australian Technology Park and Calibre developments
-
95% exposure to premium and A-grade Office assets
-
Continued modernisation of portfolio as $2.3bn active development pipeline delivered
5-year Australian Industrial lease expiry profile (by income)
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20%
18%
15 14%
10
8%
7%
5 5%
3%
0
Vacant FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Sydney
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- 45% of portfolio younger than 10 years old with lower ongoing maintenance capex
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 23
~~RETAIL~~
~~Susan MacDonald Head of Retail~~
Achieved FY17 targets
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FY17 TARGETS
- √ Increase sales productivity to $10,000/sqm
√ Occupancy >99%
√ Leasing spreads >2%
√ EBIT growth >25% on FY16
$10,048/sqm Total sales productivity
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99.4%
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5.6%
3.5%
$9,864/sqm Occupancy (by area) Comparable Comparable foot Specialty 99.4% FY16 specialty sales traffic growth productivity growth
- Solid 3.0% like-for-like income growth supported by attractive urban catchments and dynamic retail tenant mix
Retail sales by category
-
Leased ~12.6% of portfolio GLA (359 transactions across 54,305sqm)
-
Positive leasing spreads of 3.2%
-
3.6% replacements
-
3.0% renewals
-
Strong total comparable MAT growth of 4.1% and specialties sales growth of 5.6%
| Retail sales by category | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| FY17 | FY17 | FY17 | |
| Total | Comparable | Comparable | |
| MAT | MAT | MAT growth | |
| Supermarkets | $1,078m | $949m | 2.3% |
| Discount Department Stores | $247m | $211m | (0.7%) |
| Mini-majors | $521m | $453m | 7.3% |
| Specialties | $1,139m | $1,023m | 5.6% |
| Other Retail | $228m | $164m | 2.5% |
| Total | $3,213m | $2,800m | 4.1% |
-
Net valuation uplift of 3.9%[ 1] driven by post development gains at Broadway Sydney and Orion Springfield Central
-
Weighted average capitalisation rate 5.67%
-
Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by book value prior to revaluation. Excludes transaction costs for acquisitions.
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 25
Acquisitions and developments in urban catchments underpin growth and value
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RECENT COMPLETIONS STABILISING WELL
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ORION, SPRINGFIELD, BRISBANE BROADWAY, SYDNEY TRAMSHEDS, SYDNEY SPECIALTY
COMPARABLE [ 1] SPECIALTY COMPARABLE [ 1]
> AVERAGE > AVERAGE SALES
SPECIALTY MAT UP PRODUCTIVITY UP SPECIALTY MAT UP
LEASING SPREADS LEASING SPREADS APPROACHING
< AVERAGE < AVERAGE $10,000/SQM ON
5.5% INCENTIVES 5.9% 4.5% INCENTIVES ONLY 9 MONTHS TRADE
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COMMITTED PIPELINE
FUTURE PIPELINE
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BIRKENHEAD POINT, STAGE 1, SYDNEY EAST VILLAGE, ZETLAND, SYDNEY SOUTH VILLAGE, KIRRAWEE, SYDNEY KAWANA SHOPPINGWORLD, BUDDINA HARBOURSIDE, SYDNEY
~7% >$1bn
YIELD ON FUTURE
COST PIPELINE
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-
$19m development completed Aug 17 and 100% leased
-
Premium retailers include Bally, Coach, Harrolds, Michael Kors and Peters of Kensington
-
49.9% interest acquired on 1 July 16
-
Debuted as number 1 in Australia Little Guns survey[ 2]
-
Agreement to acquire an interest in a future retail asset[ 3]
-
Mirvac maintain development leasing rights
-
Affluent, under-supplied urban retail catchment
-
$56m cinema, alfresco dining precinct and car park expansion
-
Construction commencing in Aug 17
-
Forecast yield on cost >6%
-
85% of area pre-committed
-
Stage 1 DA submitted for Harbourside proposal
-
Target approvals for Rhodes Aldi and Toombul dining precinct developments in FY18
-
Planning focus on St Marys, Broadway and Birkenhead Point
-
Comparable specialty store sales growth represents retailers trading for at least 24 months, with the level of growth demonstrating the impact development has had on the existing asset
-
Total sales productivity $/sqm as per Shopping Centre News 2016 survey for centres between 20,000 and 50,000sqm
-
Price based on a 6.0% capitalisation rate of leased income on completion
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 26
Not all retail is created equal
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Superior urban market fundamentals
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~65% ~27% ~21% ~10X
Higher Higher median total Lower Greater High exposure
population growth personal weekly income unemployment population density to e-resilient
MIRVAC CATCHMENTS MIRVAC CATCHMENTS MIRVAC CATCHMENTS MIRVAC SYDNEY tourism and office
VS VS VS CATCHMENTS worker markets
AUSTRALIA AVERAGE [ 1] AUSTRALIA AVERAGE [ 2] AUSTRALIA AVERAGE [ 3] VS GREATER SYDNEY
AVERAGE [ 4]
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Resilient tenant composition within those markets
UNDERWEIGHT VULNERABLE CATEGORIES
OVERWEIGHT RESILIENT & EXPERIENTIAL USES
Department stores
Food and beverage
Entertainment and non-retail
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15% of total centre GLA 15% 20% of total centre GLA
19%
15
10 10% 10% 13%
11% 11%
10
8%
6% 6%
5 5
USA UK Asia Australia Mirvac USA UK Asia Australia Mirvac
Source: Urbis Cistri (2015), global benchmarks of centres >100,000sqm, Mirvac
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50% of total centre GLA
46%
40
30
27%
23%
20
17%
10 0%
USA UK Asia Australia Mirvac
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- Estimated Mirvac SA2 catchment population CAGR of 2.8% versus Australian population CAGR of 1.7% (2011-2016). Source: Census 2016, Mirvac Research
Mirvac remixing outcomes Upweight categories
-
Food catering
-
Non-retail
-
Entertainment
Downweight categories
-
Homewares
-
Jewellery
-
General merchandise
-
Discount department stores
-
Estimated Mirvac SA2 catchment median total personal weekly income of $842 versus Australian median personal weekly income of $662. Source Census 2016, Mirvac Research
-
Mirvac catchment unemployment rate of 4.5% versus Australian unemployment rate of 5.7%. Source: Department of Employment, Small Area Labour Markets – March 2017, Mirvac Research
-
Estimated Mirvac Sydney catchment population density of 3,906 persons per square kilometre versus Greater Sydney population density of 390 persons per square kilometre. Source: Census 2016, Mirvac Research
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 27
Mirvac positioning and outlook
Management agility is key
-
Broadening capability through consumer insights, tourism and food and beverage specialists to extract greater sales productivity
-
Development focused on experience and enhancing overall asset performance
-
Accelerated experiential capex program
-
Increased strategic churn of retailers
FY18 outlook
-
Mirvac’s strength of mix and exposure to high-performing markets is expected to drive continued sales growth, despite national growth softening
-
Challenging but stable leasing outlook with manageable expiry profile
-
Capex and churn rates above long-term averages
-
Expected Kawana Shoppingworld divestment (QLD) to impact FY18 EBIT
-
Mirvac's urban portfolio well positioned to respond to growth of online and omni-channel
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BROADWAY SYDNEY, SYDNEY
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 28
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~~RESIDENTIAL~~
~~Stuart Penklis Head of Residential~~
FY17 targets exceeded with 54% EBIT growth
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25.0% 18.0% 3,311
Gross development Residential ROIC Lots settled in FY17
margin 12.4% FY16 Ω [17% on FY16]
24.4% FY16
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-
Total of 3,094 lot sales achieved in FY17
-
Continued strong masterplanned community project sales
-
Woodlea, VIC (802 lots)
-
Gainsborough Greens, QLD (366 lots)
-
Googong, NSW (263 lots)
-
Olivine, VIC (77 lots)
-
Tullamore, VIC (49 lots)
-
Strong apartment sales reflect quality locations, product and brand
-
Pavilions, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW (195 lots)
-
Marrick & Co, NSW (115 lots)
-
The Eastbourne, VIC (91 lots)
-
Ascot Green, QLD (39 lots)
-
Leighton Beach, WA (30 lots)
-
Claremont, WA (27 lots)
-
Defaults of <2% remain in-line with long-term average
Strong residential performance
| 200 100 $300m EBIT 0 20 10 30% 0 FY17 FY15 FY16 $130m 54% 51% EBIT (LHS) Residential ROIC (RHS) $196m $302m 9.3% 12.4% 18.0% |
200 100 $300m EBIT 0 20 10 30% 0 FY17 FY15 FY16 $130m 54% 51% EBIT (LHS) Residential ROIC (RHS) $196m $302m 9.3% 12.4% 18.0% |
|---|---|
| 200 20 54% $196m 18.0% |
|
| 100 10 $130m 51% 12.4% |
|
| 0 9.3% |
0 |
| FY15 FY16 |
FY17 EBIT LHS Ridtil ROIC RHS |
| FY17 major EBIT contributors Lots Apartments settled 1 Waterfront, Unison, QLD 265 2 The Moreton, NSW 190 3 Green Square, NSW 174 4 Yarra’s Edge, VIC 173 5 Harold Park, NSW 67 |
Masterplanned Lots communities settled |
| 1 Woodlea, VIC 679 |
|
| 2 Gainsborough Greens, QLD 430 |
|
| 3 Tullamore, VIC 162 |
|
| 4 Crest, NSW 157 |
|
| 5 Brighton Lakes, NSW 107 |
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 30
Pipeline restocked when pricing attractive
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Greater capital city 12-month
median house price, Mirvac
MPC lots acquired (NSW & VIC) 12,229 2,465
Median house price Lots
lots acquired in lots acquired in
$1,000,000 12,000
NSW & VIC NSW & VIC
FY11–14 FY15–17
$800,000 8,000
$600,000 4,000
$400,000 0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Greater Sydney median house price (LHS) NSW MPC acquired (RHS) VIC MPC lots acquired (RHS)
Greater Melbourne median house price (LHS)
Greater capital city 12-month median
unit price, Mirvac apartment lots
acquired (NSW & VIC) 3,531 2,015
Median unit price lots acquired in lots acquired in Lots
$800,000 NSW & VIC NSW & VIC 2,000
FY11–14 FY15–17
$700,000 1,500
$600,000 1,000
$500,000 500
$400,000 0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Greater Sydney median unit price (LHS) NSW apartment lots acquired (RHS) VIC apartment lots acquired (RHS)
Greater Melbourne median unit price (LHS)
Source: CoreLogic; Mirvac (as at April 2017)
Source: CoreLogic; Mirvac (as at April 2017)
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-
Embedded margins within Residential pipeline reflects our ability to read the cycle and acquire when pricing was attractive
-
Prudent approach to restocking over FY16 and FY17
-
Future restocking opportunities emerging as competition for sites reduces, however vigilance and focus on core capabilities and customer demand maintained
-
Partner of choice with land owners and Government
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~
400%
Higher MPC
lot acquisitions
FY11–14 vs FY15–17
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75%
Higher average apartment
lot acquisitions
FY11–14 vs FY15–17
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 31
Taking advantage of strong residential markets
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-
Project launches accelerated into strong residential markets to lock in upside
-
Strong FY17 sales activity reflecting well located, high quality product
-
76% of lot sales achieved in FY17 weighted to NSW and Victorian markets
-
81% of lots released in NSW and Victoria in FY17 were sold
-
Above average lot releases in FY15–17 provides support for earnings over the next 3 years
-
Lot releases expected to moderate post strong FY15–17 period
-
Percentage based on lots released in NSW and VIC only
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Greater capital city 12-month median house price, 63 %
Mirvac MPC lots released (NSW & VIC)
weighting to VIC
Median house price FY15-17 MPC Lots
lots released [ 1]
$1,000,000 3,000
45%
$800,000 2,000
MPC lots released FY15-171,664 average Higher average
1,151 average MPC lots released
MPC lots released FY11-14
$600,000 1,000 FY15–17 vs FY11–14
$400,000 0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Greater Sydney median house price (LHS) NSW MPC lots released (RHS) VIC MPC lots released (RHS)
Greater Melbourne median house price (LHS)
Greater capital city 12-month median unit price, 75 %
Mirvac apartment lots released (NSW & VIC) weighting to NSW
Median unit price FY15-17 apartment Lots
lots released [ 1]
$800,000 1,200
apartment lots released FY15-171,018 average 113%
$700,000 900
Higher average
$600,000 600 apartment lots released
477 average
apartment lots released FY11-14 FY15–17 vs FY11–14
$500,000 300
$400,000 0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Greater Sydney median unit price (LHS) NSW apartment lots released (RHS) VIC apartment lots released (RHS)
Greater Melbourne median unit price (LHS)
Source: CoreLogic; Mirvac (as at April 2017)
Source: CoreLogic; Mirvac (as at April 2017)
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 32
Pre-sales pipeline supports earnings visibility
-
$2.7bn[ 1] pre-sales pipeline and strong embedded margins support earnings visibility
-
FIRB pre-sales exposure reduced to 24% (26% at HY17)
-
Quality of Mirvac product continues to attract high quality buyers
-
Recent sales launches demonstrate strong demand for Mirvac product
-
Marrick & Co
-
Pavilions
$2.7bn pre-sales by buyer profile
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Domestic owner occupier: 42% Domestic investor: 34% Mainland China: 19% Offshore other: 5%
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-
Tullamore
-
Woodlea
-
The Eastbourne
$2.7bn pre-sales expected settlement profile
85% 25% of pre-sales Pre-sales average NSW & VIC project margins
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50%
44% 45%
40
30
20
10 11%
0
FY18 FY19 FY20-FY21
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- Adjusted for Mirvac's share of JVA and managed funds
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 33
Outlook underpinned by high quality pipeline
-
Sustainability of Residential earnings supported by
-
Strong embedded margins
-
Strength of brand and customer loyalty
-
High quality product designed for the owner-occupier market
-
Lower competition for sites
-
Reduced market supply as lending conditions tighten
-
Attractive margins embedded in Residential pipeline
-
Strong embedded margins demonstrate ability to read the cycle
-
Residential EBIT contribution balancing between apartment projects and masterplanned communities
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Residential EBIT contribution
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FY14-17 FY18-20 (expected)
MPC: 44% MPC: 53%
Apartments: 56% Apartments 47%
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Expected Residential EBIT contribution — FY18-20
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50%
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----- Start of picture text -----
of pipeline has expected
25% + gross margin
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----- Start of picture text -----
MPC: 53%
Apartments: 47%
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Medium density: 45%
Low density: 55%
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 34
Well positioned to benefit from strong Sydney and Melbourne conditions, Government policy and urbanisation trends
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Mirvac transport oriented developments expected to benefit from Sydney Metro project
-
Mirvac benefiting from strategic weighting to Sydney and Melbourne
-
Government policy aligned with Mirvac’s capabilities
-
Mandated priority growth areas and precincts
-
Investment in major transport oriented developments (TODS)
-
Trends that play to Mirvac’s strengths
-
Urban regeneration
-
Densification, particularly in city and inner and middle ring areas
-
Mixed-use developments
-
Held under an option agreement subject to re-zoning
-
Site owned by Mirvac and progressing re-zoning opportunities
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CASTLE HILL
STATION
T
T
SHOWGROUND T
STATION
CHERRYBROOK
STATION
55 COONARA AVE
WEST PENNANT HILLS [ 2] 271 LANE COVE RD
MACQUARIE PARK [ 2]
T
MACQUARIE PARK
STATION
ST LEONARDS
SQUARE
ST LEONARDS
CASTLE HILLSHOWGROUND RD [ 1] T ST LEONARDS/CROWS NESTSTATIONS
KING ST
CANTERBURY [ 3]
MARRICK & CO
MARRICKVILLE
T T
OL CANTERBURYSTATION MARRICKVILLESTATION
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- Project Delivery Agreement with the Australian Turf Club subject to re-zoning
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 35
Expect to maintain improved profitability and capital efficiency in FY18
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| FY18 expected major | EBIT | contributors | contributors | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~3,400lots FY18 lot settlement target |
80% 74% EBIT expected to be skewed |
Apartments | lot | FY18 target |
% pre-sold |
Masterplanned communities |
lot | FY18 target |
% pre-sold |
|
| ~2,700lots FY18 lot sales target |
of FY18-20 EBIT expected to be skewed to NSW & VIC of expected FY18 EBIT secured by pre-sales 80-90% to 2H18 |
1 Green Square, NSW 2 Harold Park, NSW 3 The Finery, NSW |
272 232 167 |
100% 99% 100% |
1 Woodlea, VIC 2 Gainsborough Greens, 3 Tullamore, VIC |
QLD | 899 320 159 |
98% 5% 79% |
||
| 4 Art House, QLD | 104 | 88% | 4 Brighton Lakes, NSW | 146 | 78% | |||||
| 5 Beachside Leighton, | WA | 87 | 95% | 5 Crest, NSW | 104 | 26% |
- Continued earnings growth despite shifting market conditions reflects quality of Mirvac locations, product and brand strength
TOP 10 PROJECTS TO CONTRIBUTE 79% OF EXPECTED FY18 RESIDENTIAL EBIT
-
FY18 Residential EBIT expected to be weighted
-
86% to NSW and Victoria
-
42% to apartments and 58% to masterplanned communities
-
Continue to target ~$2bn capital allocation to Residential
-
Preference for capital efficient transactions
-
Continue to pursue growth with third-party capital partners
-
~18% ROIC target in FY18
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----- Start of picture text -----
~
22-25% 18%
FY18 gross margin FY18 ROIC
target range
target
18-22% THROUGH-
CYCLE TARGET
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 36
~~SUMMARY & GUIDANCE~~ ~~Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz CEO and Managing Director~~
Strong income growth and earnings visibility underpinned by urban strategy
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Urban Strategy
SECURE YIELD
$9.0bn modern investment portfolio High portfolio occupancy Long average lease terms Embedded rent growth
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DISCIPLINED GROWTH
Potential Proven asset creation track record
to deliver
Attractive returns
9%+ Highly visible residential cashflows
3 year average High quality pipeline
group ROIC
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Clear and focused urban strategy will deliver attractive investor returns
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 38
FY18 guidance
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FY18 EPS FY18 DPS
6-8% 6%
Growth Growth
on FY17 on FY17
Operating EPS DPS
16.0 cents 15.3-15.6c 12.0 cents
FY18 guidance
14.4c
(FY17 guidance:
14.0-14.4c) 11.0c
14.0 11.0 FY18 guidance
13.0c
(FY16 guidance: 10.4c
12.3c 12.7-13.0c) FY17 guidance:
(10.2–10.4c)
12.0 (FY14 guidance: 11.7-12.0c) 11.9c (FY15 guidance: 12.0-12.3c) 10.0 (FY16 guidance: 9.7–9.9c) 9.9c
9.4c
(FY15 guidance:
9.2–9.4c)
9.0c
(FY14 guidance:
10.0 9.0 8.8–9.0c)
8.0 8.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
6.5–7.0% FY14-18 EPS CAGR
5.1% FY14-18 DPS CAGR
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MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 39
Important Notice
Mirvac Group comprises Mirvac Limited (ABN 92 003 280 699) and Mirvac Property Trust (ARSN 086 780 645). This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Mirvac Limited and Mirvac Funds Limited (ABN 70 002 561 640, AFSL number 233121) as the responsible entity of Mirvac Property Trust (collectively “Mirvac” or “the Group”). Mirvac Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Limited ordinary shares and Mirvac Funds Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Property Trust ordinary units, which are stapled together as Mirvac Group stapled securities. All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$).
The information contained in this Presentation has been obtained from or based on sources believed by Mirvac to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mirvac, its affiliates, officers, employees, agents and advisers do not make any warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation or that the information is suitable for your intended use and disclaim all responsibility and liability for the information (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
This Presentation is not financial advice or a recommendation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information in this Presentation and the Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek such legal, financial and/or taxation advice as they deem necessary or appropriate to their jurisdiction.
To the extent that any general financial product advice in respect of the acquisition of Mirvac Property Trust units as a component of Mirvac stapled securities is provided in this Presentation, it is provided by Mirvac Funds Limited. Mirvac Funds Limited and its related bodies corporate, and their associates, will not receive any remuneration or benefits in connection with that advice. Directors and employees of Mirvac Funds Limited do not receive specific payments of commissions for the authorised services provided under its Australian Financial Services License. They do receive salaries and may also be entitled to receive bonuses, depending upon performance. Mirvac Funds Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mirvac Limited.
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An investment in Mirvac stapled securities is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of Mirvac, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Mirvac does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of Mirvac nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from Mirvac or any particular tax treatment.
This Presentation contains certain “forward looking” statements. The words “expected”, “forecast”, “estimates”, “consider” and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this Presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forwardlooking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Mirvac Group and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions. Past performance information given in this Presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Where necessary, comparative information has been reclassified to achieve consistency in disclosure with current year amounts and other disclosures.
This Presentation also includes certain non-IFRS measures including operating profit after tax. Operating profit after tax is profit before specific non-cash items and significant items. It is used internally by management to assess the performance of its business and has been extracted or derived from Mirvac’s financial statements ended 30 June 2017, which has been subject to audit by its external auditors.
This Presentation is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities or any other financial products and is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering document under Australian law or any other law. It is for information purposes only.
The information contained in this presentation is current as at 30 June 2017, unless otherwise noted.
MIRVAC FY17 RESULTS 17 AUGUST 2017 40
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THANK YOU
17 AUGUST 2017
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