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MIRVAC GROUP — Annual Report 2015
Aug 12, 2015
65328_rns_2015-08-12_85ba1f2f-fc77-4f7a-97b2-9faa16067064.pdf
Annual Report
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MIRVAC GROUP
13 AUGUST 2015
RESULTS FY15
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AGENDA
FY15 FY15 GROUP OPERATIONAL OUTLOOK
RESULTS FINANCIAL RESULTS AND GROUP
OVERVIEW RESULTS AND UPDATE GUIDANCE
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS
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MIRVAC GROUP
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 01
MIRVAC GROUP
FY15 RESULTS OVERVIEW
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 02
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DISCIPLINED EXECUTION OF STRATEGY IS TRANSFORMING MIRVAC
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Deliver stable growth
Disciplined approach to allocating capital and driving returns
Office Create and buy for continued out performance
Retail Competitive advantage in Urban Retail
Industrial
Create for continued outperformance
Residential
Create and sell in defined urban markets
5% 83/17% 100% 100% 93% 23.6% 3 year operating FY15 passive/active capital office portfolio retail portfolio industrial portfolio on Improved residential gross EPS CAGR split within target ~80/20% on strategy on strategy strategy margins from 17.0% in FY13 4% $7.5bn $884m 67% 98.7% $2.0bn 3 year DPS CAGR investment portfolio office acquisitions weighted to Sydney maintained high portfolio secured record level of from $6.0bn in FY12 since FY12 market occupancy in FY15 presales in FY15 20-30% maintained gearing 11.1% $3.2bn $8,805/sqm 7.6 years >2,800 within target range improved development development pipeline specialty sales productivity, maintained long WALE target FY16 lot settlements, ROIC from 5.4% in FY13 up from $1.6bn in May 2013 up 19% since FY13 in FY15 up 25% on FY14 67% FY16 Development $10-15m 21% 16.0% $214m >14,000 EBIT secured and 55% FY17+ expected annual savings FY15 incentives, consistently occupancy costs reduced industrial acquisitions in FY15, potential lot settlements of FY17 secured from efficiency initiatives below market from 17.6% in FY14 with repositioning potential between FY16-FY20
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 03
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OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE
Safety
-
27% reduction in Group Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR) in FY15 to 1.2
-
5 million construction hours with a LTIFR of 0.8
-
Masterplanned communities had its second consecutive year with no LTIs
Diversity and Inclusion
-
Formulated diversity and inclusion strategy that focuses on four key areas
-
Diversity of thought; an inclusive culture; flexibility; and gender balance
-
Participating in Equilibrium Man
-
Group of six men attempting to adopt flexible work practices, without compromising performance or position at work
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This Changes Everything
-
Office portfolio achieved 5.1 star NABERs rating without green power
-
50 Green leases signed in the commercial office portfolio
-
Created new Tenant Sustainability Fitout Guide to support green lease implementation
-
Increased waste diverted from landfill in the investment portfolio to 45% (FY14: 34%)
-
Established Charity Strategy including
-
Partnership with The Smith Family
-
Launch of Workplace Giving Program
Hatch
-
Rolled out Hatch innovation program across the company
-
Established missions targeted at solving key business issues and opportunities
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MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 04
MIRVAC GROUP
FY15 GROUP FINANCIAL RESULTS
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 05
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CONSISTENT DELIVERY OF POSITIVE RESULTS
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STATUTORY PROFIT
OPERATING PROFIT[ 1]
FUNDS FROM OPERATIONS[ 2]
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$600m $609.9m
$447.3m
400
200
$139.9m
0
FY13 FY14 FY15
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$600m $600m
$437.8m $454.8m $448.1m $468.2m
400 $377.6m 400 $388.0m
200 200
0 0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY15
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-
Increased statutory profit by 36% from FY14 to $609.9m
-
Delivered statutory EPS of 16.5cpss
-
Valuation uplift of $172.1m
-
Includes acquisition costs of $36m
-
Increased operating profit by 4% from FY14 to $454.8m
-
Delivered operating EPS of 12.3cpss at the top end of guidance
-
3 year operating EPS CAGR of 5%
-
Increased FFO by 4% from FY14 to $468.2m
-
Delivered FFO of 12.7cpss
2) Funds from Operations (FFO) is derived in accordance with PCA guidelines.
1) Operating profit after tax is a non-IFRS measure and is profit before specific non-cash and significant items and related taxation.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 06
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FOCUS ON DRIVING RETURNS
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NTA[ 1]
DISTRIBUTIONS
DEVELOPMENT ROIC
OVERHEAD COSTS
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$2.00 10c 12% 11.1%
10.5%
$1.74
9.4c
$1.66 8
$1.62
1.50 9 9.0c
5.4%
8.7c 4
1.00 8 0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY15
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2.0% Expenses as a % of asset base 2.0%
1.8%
1.8%
1.6% 1.6%
1.5 1.5%
Expenses as a % of asset base
(excluding sales and marketing)
1.0
FY13 FY14 FY15
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-
NTA increased by 5% from FY14 to $1.74 per stapled security reflecting
-
$172.1m of portfolio revaluation gains inclusive of $31.3m uplift on properties held in JVA
-
$16.1m gain from asset sales
-
DPS growth of 4% from FY14 to 9.4cpss
-
Represents Group payout ratio of 76%
-
Distributions a minimum of 100% of Trust taxable earnings
-
Improved Development ROIC to 11.1%
-
Increased contribution from commercial developments
-
Strong residential gross margins of 23.6%
-
Focus on driving Development ROIC towards 12% by FY17
-
Group overheads as a percentage of Mirvac’s asset base (excluding sales and marketing) increased slightly from FY14 to 1.6% reflecting an increase in performance based incentives
-
Increase in selling and marketing expenses reflecting accelerated residential release program
-
Operating model restructure and cost efficiency initiatives underway
1) NTA per stapled security, based on ordinary securities including EIS securities.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 07
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STRONGER DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTION UNDERPINS EARNINGS GROWTH
-
Investment earnings supported by NOI growth and acquisitions, however offset by $1.1bn of asset sales in FY14 including the 50% sale of 275 Kent St on 1 July 2014
-
Reduced contribution from Investment Management reflecting continued exit of non-aligned funds
-
Development EBIT up reflecting an increased contribution from commercial developments in FY15 partially offset by a reduction in residential lots settlements
| EBIT BY DIVIS | ION | FY15 $M |
FY14 $M |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment 478.6 483.5 Investment Management 4.4 7.0 Development 196.0 189.7 Unallocated (79.6) (75.5) Elimination 1.0 (14.2) Operating EBIT 600.4 590.5 |
-
Movement in corporate costs primarily relates to higher employee STI provided due to improvement in the Group’s performance
-
Development EBIT margins improved from 14.6% in FY14 to 16.6% in FY15
-
Includes residential and commercial developments and re-charge projects
-
Development operating profit margins improved from 8.6% in FY14 to 10.7% in FY15
DEVELOPMENT PROFIT MARGINS
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18% 16.6%
14.6%
12 11.0%
8.7%
10.7%
6 8.6%
4.3%
0 1.4%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Development operating profit margin Development EBIT margin
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MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 08
MAINTAINED A STRONG BALANCE SHEET
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-
Gearing within target range of 20-30% and maintained BBB+ credit rating
-
Restructured the Group’s $1.4bn syndicated bank facility from three tranches to five
-
Group weighted average debt maturity maintained at 4.3 years with no debt maturities over the next 12 months
-
Average borrowing cost reduced to 5.2% (June 14: 5.6%)
-
Issued $150m USPP, with expiries in 2025 and 2027, which will settle in August 2015 and extend the Group’s weighted average debt maturity
-
Lowered future borrowing costs through additional low cost interest rate hedging
-
Positive operating cash flow of $412.7m driven by the timing of residential lot settlements and commercial development fund through arrangements
-
Significant near term capital commitments
-
Delivery of $2.0bn pre-sold residential developments
-
Committed commercial developments with $370m cost to complete
-
Significant skew of expected FY16 residential settlements to 2H16
-
1) Net debt (at foreign exchange hedged rate) excluding leases/(total tangible assets – cash).
2) Adjusted EBITDA/finance cost expense.
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| CAPITAL MAN | AGEMENT METRIC | S | FY15 | FY14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet gearing1 24.3% 27.8% |
||||
| Look-through gearing 25.2% 28.5% |
||||
| ICR2 4.5x 4.2x |
||||
| Total interest bearing debt3 $2,565m $2,820m |
||||
| Average borrowing cost4 5.2% 5.6% |
||||
| Average debt maturity 4.3 yrs 4.3 yrs |
||||
| S&P credit rating BBB+ BBB+ |
||||
| Hedged percentage 61% 58% |
||||
| Average hedge maturity 5.2 yrs 4.3 yrs |
FY15 FIXED INTEREST PROFILE
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4.6%
Dec 2014
4.2
3.8
3.4 Jun 2015
3.0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Average Rate Dec 2014 Average Rate Jun 2015
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3) Total interest bearing debt (at foreign exchange hedged rate) excluding leases.
- 4) Includes margins and line fees.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 09
MIRVAC GROUP
OPERATIONAL RESULTS AND UPDATE
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 10
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OFFICE: MAINTAINED SOLID PORTFOLIO METRICS AND CREATED VALUE
-
Maintained positive like-for-like growth of 2.6%
-
Portfolio occupancy of 94.0% impacted by vacancy at
-
367 Collins St (63% of vacancy under HOA)
-
60 Margaret St (90% of vacancy under HOA)
-
Net valuation gains of $84.9m representing an uplift of 2.1%[ 1]
-
Cap rate compression of 32 bps from June 14 reflecting
-
Demand for quality assets, completion of 699 Bourke St and FY15 asset sales
-
Achieved 12% premium to book value on $248m of asset sales
-
Leased 7.5% of portfolio NLA (136 deals across 51,585sqm)
-
Positive leasing spreads of 3.0%
| PORTFOLIO R | ESULTS | **FY153 ** | HY15 | FY14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio value $4,108.0m $4,083.2m $4,025.0m |
||||
| Net valuation uplift1 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% |
||||
| Like-for-like NOI growth 2.6% 3.8% 3.4% |
||||
| Occupancy4 94.0% 94.7% 96.1% |
||||
| WALE5 4.3 yrs 4.5 yrs 4.7 yrs |
||||
| WACR 7.01% 7.24% 7.33% |
||||
| LEASING AVERAGE AVERAGE LEASING ACTIVITY AREA SPREAD INCENTIVE WALE |
||||
| Renewals 21,685sqm 3.2% 17% 4.7 years |
||||
| New leases 29,900sqm 2.7%6 26% 5.3 years |
||||
| Total 51,585sqm 3.0% 21% 5.0 years |
-
Completed development 699 Bourke St, Melbourne in line with expectations
-
$154m value on completion at cap rate of 6.13%
-
Achieved 7.2% yield on cost and $16m total return[ 2]
-
100% occupied on completion (10 year lease term)
-
6 Star Green Star — Office Design v2
-
Capital partner TIAA-CREF with 50% interest
-
1) Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by closing fair value from previous corresponding period. Excludes transaction costs for acquisitions.
-
2) Includes development profit and NTA uplift.
-
3) Portfolio value includes two assets, in St Leonards, being held for development. All other metrics exclude these assets. 4) By area, including 8 Chifley, NSW.
-
5) By income, including 8 Chifley, NSW.
-
6) Excludes new leases over vacant space.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 11
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OFFICE: WELL POSITIONED PORTFOLIO AND STRONG LEASING CAPABILITY
Office conditions
-
Continued signs of improved tenant demand in Sydney and Melbourne
-
Other major markets at or close to stabilising
-
Incentives remain elevated, however expected to improve as supply decreases
-
Capital values continue to be supported for well-leased prime assets
Portfolio positioning
-
83% of portfolio located in Sydney and Melbourne
-
Track record of leasing capability
-
Leasing activity five year average ~55,000sqm
-
MGR incentives historically below market
-
~170,000sqm of office space under HOA, including 275 Kent St, 40 Miller St and 60 Margaret St in Sydney
-
Represents 25% of portfolio NLA
-
Average WALE of ~10 years
MGR V’S MARKET INCENTIVES
MGR V’S MARKET INCENTIVES
OFFICE LEASE EXPIRY PROFILE WITH IMPACT OF HOA’s[ 2]
Sydney
Melbourne
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30% 30%
20 20
10 10
0 0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
MGR average incentives Market incentives [ 1] MGR average incentives Market incentives [ 1]
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60%
37% of vacancy 25% of FY17 Would result in 59%
under HOA expiries under HOA expiring post FY19
40
23% of FY16 43% of FY19
expiries expiries
under HOA under HOA
20
0
Vacant FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21+
Expiry Impact of HOA’s
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-
1) Source: JLL (average prime incentives).
-
2) By income.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 12
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OFFICE: PORTFOLIO QUALITY AND DEVELOPMENTS SUPPORT OUTLOOK
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> FY16 NOI outlook
OFFICE LEASE EXPIRY PROFILE BY GEOGRAPHY[ 2]
-
Solid occupancy
-
Embedded rental growth (average 3.4% pa fixed rent increases over 84% of portfolio income)
-
Contribution from 699 Bourke St (50% interest) and Treasury Building (50% interest)
-
Full year impact of FY15 asset sales
-
23% of FY16 lease expiries under HOA
-
$1.2bn committed office developments on track, expected to deliver ~7.5% average yield on cost
-
1H16: Treasury Building, Perth
- $330m end value (99% leased, 5 Star Green Star[ 1] )
-
2H16: 200 George St, Sydney
- $625m end value (81% leased, 6 Star Green Star[ 1] )
-
FY17: 2 Riverside Quay, Melbourne
- $212m end value (91% leased, 5 Star Green Star[ 1] )
-
1) Office Design v3.
-
2) By income.
-
3) Represents 100% of expected end value of office developments.
| 40% | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | |||||||||
| 30 | |||||||||
| 20 | 20% | ||||||||
| 10 | 12% | 9% | 9% | 8% | |||||
| 6% | |||||||||
| 0 | |||||||||
| Vacant | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21+ | |||
| Sydney / Melbourne | Brisbane / Perth / Canberra | ||||||||
| % | ESTIMATED | ||||||||
| OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS | AREA | PRE-LEASED | END VALUE3 | ||||||
| Committed | |||||||||
| Treasury Building, WA | 30,800sqm | 99% | $330m | ||||||
| 200 George St, NSW | 38,900sqm | 81% | $625m | ||||||
| 2 Riverside Quay, VIC | 21,000sqm | 91% | 4 | $212m | |||||
| Subtotal | 90,700sqm | 90% | $1,167m | ||||||
| Development | pipeline | ||||||||
| 55 Pitt St, NSW; Green Square, NSW; | |||||||||
| 664 Collins St, VIC; 477 Collins St, VIC and Perth City Link, WA | $2,056m | ||||||||
| Total Pipeline | $3.2bn |
- 4) As at 31 July 2015.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 13
RETAIL: QUALITY PORTFOLIO DRIVING STRONG METRICS
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-
NOI up 15% driven by rental growth, acquisitions and development completions — Partially offset by asset sales
-
Positive like-for-like growth of 2.1% underpinned by urban market centres
-
Maintained high occupancy of 99.4%
-
Delivered strong total comparable MAT growth of 4.7%
-
Positive across all categories, including 3.8% growth in specialities
-
Specialty sales productivity up 5%, to $8,805/sqm, and specialty occupancy costs reduced 170bps to 16.0%
-
Leased 17% of portfolio NLA (296 deals across 51,825sqm)
-
Strong leasing spreads of 4.8%
-
Achieved 11% premium to book value on $158m of asset sales
-
Cap rate compression of 33 bps from June 14 reflecting divestments and improved portfolio quality
-
Completed total 11,300sqm of expansions at Stanhope Village, NSW and Kawana Shoppingworld, QLD
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| PORTFOLIO R | ESULTS | FY15 | 1H15 1 | FY14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio value $2,139.5m $2,093.2m $1,769.6m |
||||
| Net valuation uplift2 3.4% 1.4% 2.1% |
||||
| Like-for-like NOI growth 2.1% 2.6% 2.0% |
||||
| Occupancy 99.4% 99.2% 99.1% |
||||
| Specialty comparable occupancy costs 16.0% 16.4% 17.7% |
||||
| Total leasing spreads 4.8% 4.1% 4.5% |
||||
| Total comparable MAT growth 4.7% 3.1% 2.2% |
||||
| Specialties comparable MAT growth 3.8% 2.9% 2.0% |
||||
| WACR 6.49% 6.59% 6.82% |
| FY15 | FY15 | FY14 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | COMPARABLE | COMPARABLE | |
| RETAIL SALES BY CATEGORY | MAT | MAT GROWTH | MAT GROWTH |
| Non-food majors | $205.5m | 4.7% | (1.9%) |
| Food majors | $800.0m | 7.3% | 1.6% |
| Mini majors | $349.5m | 3.3% | 7.0% |
| Specialties | $885.1m | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Other retail | $175.3m | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Total | $2,415.4m | 4.7% | 2.2% |
-
Delivered an average YOC of >7%
-
1) Excludes asset held for sale.
-
2) Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by closing fair value from previous corresponding period. Excludes transaction costs for acquisitions.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 14
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RETAIL: POSITIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTED BY FOCUS ON KEY URBAN MARKETS
Retail conditions
> Mixed conditions nationally
-
Retail sales underpinned by low interest rates, steady employment and dwelling activity
-
Consumer sentiment remains volatile and wages growth subdued
Portfolio positioning
-
The portfolio has re-weighted to stronger, more densely populated urban markets
-
Over $1bn in retail transactions in the past three years
-
100% exit from regional markets
> Sydney retail spending strength supported by
-
Improved population and economic growth
-
Strongest state economic growth forecast for FY16, compared to other major states[ 1]
-
Higher levels of dwelling investment
-
Large, broad-based infrastructure investment
> Over the past two years
-
Specialty sales productivity increased by 19%
-
Leasing spreads averaged 4.7%
-
IPD outperformance on 1, 3 and 5 year basis[3]
-
Portfolio expected to continue to benefit from its geographic and market positioning
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AT MARCH 2015[ 2]
SALES PRODUCTIVITY & OCCUPANCY COSTS
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Divested in FY15
20%
15 17.9% 19.4%
MGR portfolio – urban markets
10
National average 6.8%
5 3.8% 3.8%
2.3% 2.4% 2.8% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3%
1.7%
0
Drummoyne Sydney Concord North Pyrmont Cherrybrook Como Moonee Springfield Kawana Rockhampton Bundaberg
City (Rhodes) Sydney Ponds City
Sydney Melbourne Queensland
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- 1) Source: State budget papers.
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$9,000/sqm 18%
8,500 17
8,000 16
7,500 15
7,000 14
6,500 13
FY13 HY14 FY14 HY15 FY15
Specialty sales productivity (LHS) Specialty occupancy cost ratio (RHS)
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-
2) Source: Small Area Labour Markets, Department of Employment, Australian Government.
-
3) IPD total returns as at 31 March 2015.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 15
RETAIL: MAXIMISING VALUE OF CORE ASSETS
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-
Continue to unlock value from existing portfolio
-
Four projects committed, expected to deliver an average YOC ~7% (Target 10yr IRR over 10%)
-
FY16: Orion Springfield, Stage 2, QLD (75% leased)
-
Tramsheds Harold Park, NSW (59% leased)
-
Greenwood Plaza, NSW
-
-
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RETAIL DEVELOPMENT AND REPOSITIONING PIPELINE
| Committed Orion Springfeld Central Broadway Shopping Centre Tramsheds Harold Park Greenwood Plaza |
Masterplanning Phase Rhodes Waterside Harbourside Cherrybrook Village St Marys Village Centre Como Centre Birkenhead Point |
Future |
|---|---|---|
| Stanhope Village Kawana Shoppingworld MetCentre Cooleman Court Broadway Shopping Centre |
||
- FY17: Broadway Shopping Centre, NSW (32% leased)
> FY16 NOI outlook
-
High occupancy
-
Embedded rental growth (average 4.4% pa fixed rent increases over 83% of total portfolio income)
-
Full year contribution from Birkenhead Point and completed developments
-
Full year impact of FY15 asset sales
-
Impact from development affected assets
-
Continued focus on maintaining strong track record of high occupancy and reducing holdovers
TRACK RECORD OF HIGH OCCUPANCY (BY AREA)
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100% 99% 99% 99% 99%
75
50
25
15% 16%
10% 11%
0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Occupancy Next period lease expiry
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MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 16
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INDUSTRIAL: HIGH OCCUPANCY AND LONG WALE PROVIDING STABLE INCOME
> Maintained strong portfolio metrics
-
Occupancy of 98.7%
-
WALE of 7.6 years
-
Strong like-for-like NOI growth of 3.4%, driven by embedded rental growth
-
Net valuation uplift of 6.5%, driven by cap rate compression of 41 bps from June 14, including
| PORTFOLIO R | ESULTS | FY15 | 1H15 | FY14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio value $661.0m $416.6m $405.6m |
||||
| Net valuation uplift1 6.5% 0.6% 1.6% |
||||
| Like-for-like NOI growth 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% |
||||
| Occupancy2 98.7% 99.5% 99.5% |
||||
| WALE3 7.6 yrs 8.2 yrs 8.7yrs |
||||
| WACR 7.02% 7.38% 7.43% |
-
Hoxton Park tightened 50 bps to 6.00%
-
Completed 24,445sqm of leasing activity
-
Industrial portfolio increased to $661m (June 2014: $407m), with the acquisition of the Altis portfolio for $214m
-
Four income producing assets, located in Sydney
-
Total lettable area of 78,308sqm
-
Initial yield ~7%
1) Net gain on fair value of investment properties divided by closing fair value from previous corresponding period. Excludes transaction costs for acquisitions. 2) By area.
3) By income.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 17
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INDUSTRIAL: POSITIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTED BY STRONG PORTFOLIO METRICS
Industrial conditions
-
Tenant demand encouraging as business confidence slowly gains momentum, however tenants remain cautious
-
Markets expected to improve as the NSW economy accelerates in FY16
Portfolio positioning
-
Portfolio income supported by geographic positioning and strong portfolio metrics
-
90% of portfolio located in Sydney
-
High occupancy and long WALE
-
-
More certainty with new Sydney infrastructure connections expected to improve industrial productivity
-
Acquisition of Altis assets further strengthens the portfolio and includes long-term redevelopment potential
-
Investor appetite remains strong for prime assets
-
$200m development pipeline located within core industrial precinct in Sydney
NSW ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REAL STATE FINAL DEMAND[ 1]
INDUSTRIAL LEASE EXPIRY PROFILE[ 2]
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4%
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3
2
1
0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F
Real state final demand Past 10 year annual average
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58%
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60% 58%
45
30
15 14%
10% 8%
5%
0 3% 2%
Vacant FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21+
60 Wallgrove Rd — asset held for development
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-
1) Estimate of the level of spending in the local economy by the private and public sectors, equivalent to Domestic Final Demand. Source: ABS, Forecasts from NSW Government Budget Papers FY16
-
2) By income.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 18
RESIDENTIAL: DELIVERING STRONG RESULTS
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-
Settled 2,271 lots in line with FY15 target of >2,200
-
70% derived from MPC projects, predominately NSW
-
Delivered strong FY15 residential gross margins of 23.6%[ 1] , driven by outperformance of MPC and apartment projects in Sydney
-
Sales activity up 27%[ 2] on FY14, driven by NSW and VIC
-
Activated over 8,700 lots with the launch of new projects including
-
Three new MPC projects in Melbourne
-
Rockbank: 6,080 lots
-
Tullamore: ~625 lots
-
Cheltenham: 184 lots
-
-
Three major apartment projects
- Green Square and Bondi, Sydney and Art House, Brisbane
-
Secured record level of pre-sales, de-risking future development earnings
-
Valued at $2.0bn[ 3] , up 67% on FY14
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FY15 LOT SETTLEMENTS
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Masterplanned Communities 70%
Apartments 30%
NSW 48%
VIC 12%
70% WA 24%
MPC QLD 16%
SALES ACTIVITY BY LOTS [ 2]
4,000 lots
up 27%
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
NSW QLD VIC WA
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-
1) Including provision settlements. Excluding provision settlements gross margin 25.9%.
-
2) Total new sales and pre-sales for the 12 month period.
-
3) Adjusted for Mirvac’s share of JVA and Mirvac managed funds.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 19
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RESIDENTIAL: SUCCESSFUL RELEASES DE-RISKING FUTURE EARNINGS
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-
Successfully accelerated release programme with over 4,000 lots released in FY15 (80% increase on FY14)
-
~90% sales success in NSW and VIC including
-
Green Square, NSW: 462 lots, 99% pre-sold
-
Harold Park, NSW: 350 lots, 87% pre-sold
-
Rockbank, VIC: 265 lots, 100% pre-sold
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Harcrest, VIC: 212 lots, 90% pre-sold
-
Bondi, NSW: 190 lots, 100% sold
-
Increased exchanged pre-sales contracts to $2.0bn (December 14: $1.3bn) — 44% expected to settle in FY16
-
36% expected to settle in FY17
-
20% expected to settle in FY18
-
Pre-sales lots well balanced between apartments and MPC projects
-
Secured 67% and 57% of expected FY16 and FY17 Development EBIT[ 1] respectively driven by record level of residential pre-sales
PRE-SALES: EXPECTED SETTLEMENT PROFILE BY STATE
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$1,000m
44%
750 36%
500
20%
250
0
FY16 FY17 FY18
NSW QLD VIC WA
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PRE-SALES: PRODUCT TYPE BY LOTS
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Apartments 55% Masterplanned Communities 45%
1) Development EBIT before overheads and sales and marketing.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 20
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RESIDENTIAL: MARKET OVERVIEW
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Sydney
-
Momentum supported by pent-up demand and improved economy
-
NSW seeing lowest level of net interstate outflow migration level since 1970s
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Undersupply of dwellings relative to demand is expected to continue for some time yet
-
Stronger for longer construction cycle is being underpinned by broad new infrastructure plans
Melbourne
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Ongoing strong population growth to support dwelling demand
-
Metropolitan Melbourne will see an additional 1.8m people over the 20 years to 2031, equates to 90,000 new residents per year
-
Deep dwelling demand is forecast for middle and outer rings
-
Inner city apartments supply is expected to remain concentrated
Brisbane
SYDNEY DEMAND VS PAST SUPPLY
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40,000 households
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30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Additional Sydney Households Sydney completions FY10-FY14
Source: ABS Household and Family Projections March 15, NSW Planning & Environment
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-
Market demand continues to remain steady
-
Brisbane apartment market continues to offer attractive, relatively high yields
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Brisbane land market has not seen the same supply increases and as a result is seeing moderate price growth
Perth
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Subdued economic conditions is generally impacting the market
-
Demand for affordable product however, is being supported by policy incentives such as low interest rates and First Home Buyers grants
-
Land market demand has reverted back to more average levels, with lower price markets performing better
MELBOURNE PRECINCT DWELLING REQUIREMENT
| Precinct dwelling | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| MGR major projects | Lots to go | Precinct | requirement 2011-2031 1 |
| Donnybrook | 2,296 | Northern | 140,000-180,000 |
| Harcrest | 86 | East | 80,000-110,000 |
| Tullamore | 438 | East | 80,000-110,000 |
| Dallas Brooks Hall | 259 | Central | 120,000-145,000 |
| Cheltenham | 137 | Southern | 165,000-205,000 |
| Smiths Lane | 2,222 | Southern | 165,000-205,000 |
| Rockbank | 5,815 | Western | 135,000-175,000 |
1) Source: Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure, Preliminary Population Projections, 2014, Plan Melbourne 2014.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 21
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RESIDENTIAL: EARNINGS GROWTH IN FY16
- Expect to deliver growth in Residential earnings in FY16
FY16 TARGET LOT SETTLEMENTS
-
FY16 lot settlement target of over 2,800 (~25% increase on FY15)
-
Over 65% of target lot settlements secured via pre-sales
-
94% of target apartment settlements secured
-
Gross development margins expected to remain above through cycle band (18-22%)
-
Over 85% of target FY16 lot settlements expected to be from non-impaired projects (FY15: 80%)
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Masterplanned Communities 70%
Apartments 30%
94%
of target
apartment lot
70% settlements
MPC secured
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-
Material skew in earnings to 2H16 with a significant number of major projects expected to settle in the second half
-
~$870m[ 1] of MPC and apartment pre-sales expected to settle in 2H16
-
Capital expected to trend up reflecting increased activity
-
Sales and marketing expenses expected to remain elevated in FY16
-
Continue to take advantage of positive residential conditions with over 3,700 expected lot releases in FY16
-
Higher amount of commissions due to expected increase in volumes
MAJOR 2H16 EXPECTED SETTLEMENTS
| Pre-sales | Revenue | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project | Type | secured (lots) | **secured 1 ** | Ownership |
| Harold Park,NSW | Apartments | 578 | $571m | 100% |
| Harcrest,VIC | MPC | 221 | $111m | 20% |
| Tullamore,VIC | MPC | 62 | $52m | 100% |
| Waterfront,Unison S1,QLD | Apartments | 54 | $39m | 100% |
| Cheltenham,VIC | MPC | 47 | $33m | 100% |
| Rockbank,VIC | MPC | 170 | $32m | 50% |
| Enclave,VIC | MPC | 32 | $20m | 50% |
| Everton Park,QLD | MPC | 21 | $11m | 100% |
| Total | ~$870m |
1) Represents 100% revenue.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 22
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RESIDENTIAL: MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK WELL SUPPORTED
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-
12 new projects (totalling ~7,160 lots) selectively acquired in FY15 in line with strategic mandates and return hurdles (average IRR 18%) — 84% of lots MPC
-
Off-market transactions with average upfront payment of less than $60k per lot[ 1]
-
Existing pipeline supports over 14,000 potential lot settlements over the next five years
-
Major projects expected to contribute approximately 70% of target EBIT for each financial year between FY16 and FY20
-
Released projects substantially pre-sold
-
Seven new project launches expected in FY16 including Gledswood Hills, Moorebank, New Brighton, St Leonards, Sydney Olympic Park, Waterloo in Sydney and Dallas Brooks Hall in Melbourne
SECURED PRE-SALES FOR EXPECTED MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS[ 2]
| FY16 lHarold Park, NSW 99% pre-sold l Alex Ave, NSW 16% pre-sold lYarra’s Edge, VIC 44% pre-sold l Googong, NSW 78% pre-sold l Brighton Lakes, NSW lTullamore, VIC 100% pre-sold |
FY17 lBondi, NSW 99% pre-sold l Tullamore, VIC 77% pre-sold lWaterfront, QLD 79% pre-sold l Cheltenham, VIC 40% pre-sold lArt House, QLD 100% pre-sold l Brighton Lakes, NSW |
FY18 l Tullamore, VIC l Harold Park, NSW 31% pre-sold l Sydney Olympic Park, NSW l Yarra’s Edge, VIC 54% pre-sold lGreen Square, NSW 99% pre-sold lClaremont, WA 14% pre-sold |
FY19 l Tullamore, VIC l Yarra’s Edge, VIC l Art House, QLD l Claremont, WA l West Swan, WA l Green Square, NSW |
FY20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| l Dallas Brooks Hall, VIC l St Leonard’s, NSW l Tullamore, VIC l Rockbank, VIC l Googong, NSW l Donnybrook, VIC |
- 1) Total upfront payments divided by total lot yield.
l Released l Partially released l Not released
- 3) By lots.
2) Subject to planning approvals.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 23
MIRVAC GROUP
OUTLOOK AND GROUP GUIDANCE
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 24
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OUTLOOK AND GROUP GUIDANCE
Office
- Continue to manage lease expiry profile and secure tenant pre-commitments for development pipeline
Deliver committed developments in line with target returns
Retail
-
Continue to maintain solid portfolio metrics
-
Target acquisitions in urban markets with value-add opportunities
-
Continue to unlock value from existing portfolio
Residential
-
Focus on executing significant delivery program
-
Continue to improve project returns and maintain solid gross development margins
Maintain a very disciplined approach to restocking pipeline
Operational excellence
-
Maintain leading HSE metrics
-
Progress implementation of operating model review initiatives
-
Deliver on sustainability, innovation and diversity and inclusion strategies
Group
FY16 Group operating profit guidance: $470m — $482m
- FY16 EPS guidance: 12.7cpss — 13.0cpss
FY16 DPS guidance: 9.7cpss — 9.9cpss
- Expected one-off restructuring cost in FY16 of ~$4m, in line with previous guidance
Continue to target 12% Development ROIC by FY17
- Continue to maintain ~80/20% split between passive and active capital
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200 GEORGE STREET, SYDNEY NSW
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MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 25
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IMPORTANT NOTICE
Mirvac Group comprises Mirvac Limited (ABN 92 003 280 699) and Mirvac Property Trust (ARSN 086 780 645). This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Mirvac Limited and Mirvac Funds Limited (ABN 70 002 561 640, AFSL number 233121) as the responsible entity of Mirvac Property Trust (collectively “Mirvac” or “the Group”). Mirvac Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Limited ordinary shares and Mirvac Funds Limited is the issuer of Mirvac Property Trust ordinary units, which are stapled together as Mirvac Group stapled securities. All dollar values are in Australian dollars (A$).
The information contained in this Presentation has been obtained from or based on sources believed by Mirvac to be reliable. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mirvac, its affiliates, officers, employees, agents and advisers do not make any warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation or that the information is suitable for your intended use and disclaim all responsibility and liability for the information (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
This Presentation is not financial advice or a recommendation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information in this Presentation and the Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek such legal, financial and/or taxation advice as they deem necessary or appropriate to their jurisdiction.
To the extent that any general financial product advice in respect of the acquisition of Mirvac Property Trust units as a component of Mirvac stapled securities is provided in this Presentation, it is provided by Mirvac Funds Limited. Mirvac Funds Limited and its related bodies corporate, and their associates, will not receive any remuneration or benefits in connection with that advice. Directors and employees of Mirvac Funds Limited do not receive specific payments of commissions for the authorised services provided under its Australian Financial Services License. They do receive salaries and may also be entitled to receive bonuses, depending upon performance. Mirvac Funds Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mirvac Limited.
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An investment in Mirvac stapled securities is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of Mirvac, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Mirvac does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of Mirvac nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from Mirvac or any particular tax treatment.
This Presentation contains certain “forward looking” statements. The words “anticipated”, “expected”, “projections”, “forecast”, “estimates”, “could”, “may”, “target”, “consider” and “will” and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this Presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Mirvac Group and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions. Past performance information given in this Presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Where necessary, comparative information has been reclassified to achieve consistency in disclosure with current year amounts and other disclosures.
This Presentation also includes certain non-IFRS measures including operating profit after tax. Operating profit after tax is profit before specific non-cash items and significant items. It is used internally by management to assess the performance of its business and has been extracted or derived from Mirvac’s financial statements ended 30 June 2015, which has been subject to audit by its external auditors.
This Presentation is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Mirvac stapled securities or any other financial products and is not a prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering document under Australian law or any other law. It is for information purposes only.
The information contained in this presentation is current as at 30 June 2015, unless otherwise noted.
MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 26
MIRVAC GROUP
THANK YOU FOLLOW US MIRVAC MIRVAC ON TWITTER INVESTOR RELATIONS FY15 PROPERTY @MIRVAC WEBSITE COMPENDIUM
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MIRVAC I FY15 RESULTS I 13 AUGUST 2015 I 27
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