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Masterflex SE — Regulatory Filings 2011
Apr 5, 2012
276_rns_2012-04-05_4fc8a790-b279-4d21-8c2b-9809c7743dd1.pdf
Regulatory Filings
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Masterflex AG
Recommendation: BUY (BUY) Risk: MEDIUM (MEDIUM)
Price Target: EUR 7.00 (6.70)
Highly profitable core business
and long-term growth perspectives
- Last week Masterflex published FY 2011 figures (more details next pages) that confirmed preliminaries: Revenue increased from EUR 46.1m to EUR 53.0m (+15.1%). EBIT increased by 16.4% to EUR 7.5. Earnings are thus significantly higher than the self-set target of EUR 7.0m.
- Solid financials: By the end of FY 2011, equity ratio was 32%; net debt/EBITDA amounted to 1.9.
- Outlook: Masterflex is guiding sales in the range of EUR 57m to 58m, accompanied by an EBIT of EUR 8m for FY 2012.
- Highlights of the analysts' conference: CEO Dr Bastin explained that balance sheet figures significantly improved. Furthermore, the company was able to reduce its debt. Therefore an improvement of the financial result can be expected. We conservatively assumed just EUR 100,000 in our estimates. He added that one-time costs for the reorganisation of Masterflex AG into a pure management and financial holding company as well as the transformation into an SE (Societas Europaea) will lead to relatively small expenditures in a six-digit EUR area. Provisions have been built in FY 2011.
- Regarding competition, Masterflex explained that there exist approximately 10 companies worldwide with a comparable business model. Masterflex plans to become global market leader. To achieve this goal, an acquisition could follow in the mid-term. Dividend payments are considered, too.
- The company confirmed its mid-term organic growth rate (8-10% p.a.). Given its internationalization strategy and its innovative power that allows for substitution of traditional applications with hose systems, we believe in this scenario.
- Our recommendation remains BUY. Due to better the than assumed net debt situation, we increase our price target from EUR 6.70 to EUR 7.00.
| Key data | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 12/31, EUR m | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
| Sales | 38.4 | 46.1 | 53.0 | 57.0 | 62.0 | 67.0 |
| EBIT | 3.7 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| Net result (cont. operat.) | -1.1 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
| EPS (continued operat.) | -0.24 | 1.67 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| EPS (discont. operat.) | -2.87 | -2.16 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EPS (continued and disc.) | -3.11 | -0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| Gross margin | 73.3% | 72.8% | 71.3% | 71.4% | 71.1% | 70.8% |
| EBIT margin | 9.5% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 14.9% |
| ROE | n.m. | n.m. | 24.6% | 17.9% | 17.5% | 16.6% |
| ROA | -1.5% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| EV/EBIT | n.m. | 10.3 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 6.7 |
| P/E (continued operat.) | n.m. | 3.2 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 9.5 |
| Source: Masterflex AG, CBS Research AG |
04 April 2012
Source: CBS Research AG, Bloomberg, Masterflex AG
| Change | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| new | old | new | old | new | old | |||
| Sales | - | 57.0 | - | 62.0 | 67.0 | - | ||
| EBIT | - | 8.1 | - | 9.0 | 10.0 | - | ||
| EPS | - | 0.41 | - | 0.49 | 0.56 | - | ||
| Internet: www.masterflex.de Sektor: All Industrial WKN: 549293 |
ISIN: DE0005492938 | |||||||
| Reuters: MZXG.DE | Bloomberg: MZX GY |
Short company profile:
Masterflex AG is a specialist in developing and manufacturing superior connection and hose systems made of innovative high-tech plastics. Its competence and numerous innovations have allowed the company to set new standards for high-tech hose systems.
Share data:
| Share price (EUR, latest closing price): | 5.33 |
|---|---|
| Shares outstanding (m): | 8.9 |
| Market capitalisation (EUR m): | 47.3 |
| Enterprise value (EUR m): | 66.6 |
| Ø daily trading volume (3 m., no. of shares): | 9,106 |
Performance data:
| High 52 weeks (EUR): | 7.11 |
|---|---|
| Low 52 weeks (EUR): | 4.05 |
| Absolute performance (12 months): | 1.7% |
| Relative performance vs. CDAX: | |
| 1 month | 2.4% |
| 3 months | -6.7% |
| 6 months | -22.0% |
| 12 months | 4.8% |
| Shareholders: | |
| SVB GmbH & Co. KG/Schmidt | 19.6% |
| BBC GmbH | 4.6% |
| Bischoping family | 5.3% |
| Ärzteverband | 3.3% |
| von Rautenkranz | 3.3% |
| own shares | 1.5% |
| free float | 62.4% |
| Financial calendar: | |
| 1Q FY 2012 Report | 7 May 2012 |
| AGM | 19 June 2012 |
| Author: | Ralf Marinoni, CEFA (Analyst) |
| Close Brothers Seydler Research AG | |
| Phone: | +49 (0) 69-977 84 56 0 |
| Email: | [email protected] |
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag
Please notice the information on the preparation of this document, the disclaimer, the advice regarding possible conflicts of interests, and the mandatory information required by § 34b WpHG (Securities Trading Law) at the end of this document. This financial analysis in accordance with § 34b WpHG is exclusively intended for distribution to individuals that buy or sell financial instruments at their own account or at the account of others in connection with their trading activities, occupation, or employment.
Key Figures
| Key Figures | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| (EURm) | FY 2011 | FY 2010 | yoy |
| Sales | 53.0 | 46.1 | 15.1% |
| EBIT | 7.5 | 6.4 | 16.4% |
| EBITDA | 10.0 | 9.1 | 9.3% |
| Net Profit | 4.3 | 8.1 | -47.5% |
| EPS (EUR) | 0.45 | 1.67 | -73.1% |
| Equity | 16.2 | 12.2 | 33.0% |
| Equity ratio | 31.9% | 18.6% | n.m. |
| Net debt | 19.3 | 22.8 | -15.2% |
| Net debt/EBITDA | 1.9 | 2.5 | n.m. |
| Source: Masterflex AG, CBS Research AG |
Valuation
Valuation summary
Consolidation of valuation methods
| Weighting factor |
Fair value per share (EUR) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Peer group valuation | 50.0% | 6.00 |
| DCF valuation | 50.0% | 8.11 |
| Fair value per share (EUR) | 7.06 |
Source: CBS Research AG
Peer group analysis
| EURm, except EPS (EUR) | EBITDA | EBIT | EPS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | ||
| Masterflex AG: Financial estimates CBS Research | 10.8 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.56 | |
| Applied multiples: Peer group median | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 10.7 | |
| Enterprise value (derived) | 68.4 | 71.2 | 81.1 | 81.8 | 78.9 | 83.5 | - | - | - | |
| + Excess cash and marketable securities | 4.5 | |||||||||
| - Financial debt and minority interest | -23.9 | |||||||||
| Market capitalization (derived) | 49.1 | 51.9 | 61.8 | 62.5 | 59.5 | 64.1 | 46.9 | 50.9 | 53.2 | |
| Median | 53.2 | |||||||||
| Premium (discount) vs. Peer Group | 0% | |||||||||
| Fair market capitalization (after discount) | 53.2 | |||||||||
| Number of shares (m) | 8.9 | |||||||||
| Fair value per share (EUR) | 6.00 | |||||||||
Source: CBS Research AG
Annotation: As Masterflex runs a very specific business model, we decided to use average multiples from the SDAX companies.
DCF model
Discounted Cash Flow Model
| PHASE 1 | PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURm | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E | 2021E | 8 |
| Sales | 57.0 | 62.0 | 67.0 | 72.4 | 78.1 | 84.4 | 91.2 | 98.4 | 106.3 | 114.8 | |
| YoY grow th |
19.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | |
| EBIT | 8.1 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 15.9 | 17.2 | |
| EBIT margin | 14.2% | 14.5% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | |
| Income tax on EBIT (cash tax rate) | -2.9 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.6 | -3.9 | -4.2 | -4.5 | -4.9 | -5.3 | -5.7 | |
| Depreciation and amortisation | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | |
| Other non-cash items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Change in net working capital | -2.0 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -3.4 | -3.6 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -4.6 | -5.0 | -5.4 | |
| Net capital expenditure | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -3.7 | -4.0 | -4.3 | -4.6 | -5.0 | -5.4 | -5.9 | |
| Free cash flow | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | |
| Present values | 2.9 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 59.8 |
| Present value Phase 1 | 10.7 | Risk free rate | 3.50% | Target equity ratio | 30.0% | ||||||
| Present value Phase 2 | 20.8 | Equity risk premium | 6.00% | Beta (fundamental) | 1.80 | ||||||
| Present value Phase 3 | 59.8 | Debt risk premium | 2.75% | WACC | 7.22% | ||||||
| Total present value | 91.3 | Tax shield | 33.0% | Terminal growth | 2.0% | ||||||
| + Excess cash/Non-operating assets | 4.5 | Sensitivity analysis | |||||||||
| - Financial debt | -23.9 | Terminal growth (Phase 3) | |||||||||
| 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | |||||||
| Fair value of equity | 71.9 | WACC | 6.2% | 8.92 | 9.74 | 10.75 | 12.04 | 13.73 | |||
| 6.7% | 7.86 | 8.51 | 9.29 | 10.26 | 11.50 | ||||||
| Number of shares (m) | 8.9 | 7.2% | 6.97 | 7.49 | 8.11 | 8.86 | 9.79 | ||||
| 7.7% | 6.22 | 6.64 | 7.14 | 7.73 | 8.45 | ||||||
| Fair value per share (EUR) | 8.11 | 8.2% | 5.57 | 5.92 | 6.33 | 6.80 | 7.37 |
Source: CBS Research AG
Appendix
Financials
Masterflex AG
Profit and loss account (continued operations)
| IFRS EURm |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales YoY grow th |
73.4 -95.3% |
38.4 -47.7% |
46.1 19.9% |
53.0 15.1% |
57.0 7.5% |
62.0 8.8% |
67.0 8.1% |
| Change in inventories | 0.1 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Other activated own work | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Other operating income | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Total revenues | 75.2 | 39.1 | 47.1 | 54.8 | 59.5 | 64.5 | 69.6 |
| COGS in % of sales |
-30.3 -41.3% |
-11.0 -28.6% |
-13.5 -29.4% |
-17.0 -32.1% |
-18.8 -33.0% |
-20.5 -33.0% |
-22.1 -33.0% |
| Gross income in % of sales |
44.9 61.2% |
28.1 73.3% |
33.6 72.8% |
37.8 71.3% |
40.7 71.4% |
44.1 71.1% |
47.5 70.8% |
| Personnel expenses in % sales |
-23.5 -32.1% |
-14.3 -37.3% |
-16.0 -34.8% |
-18.0 -34.0% |
-20.0 -35.1% |
-21.8 -35.2% |
-22.5 -33.6% |
| Other operating expenses | -12.1 | -7.7 | -8.4 | -9.8 | -9.9 | -10.5 | -12.0 |
| EBITDA in % of sales |
9.3 12.6% |
6.1 15.9% |
9.1 19.8% |
10.0 18.8% |
10.8 19.0% |
11.8 19.0% |
12.9 19.3% |
| Depreciation and amortisation in % of total revenues |
-3.3 -4.4% |
-2.5 -6.3% |
-2.7 -5.7% |
-2.5 -4.5% |
-2.7 -4.6% |
-2.8 -4.3% |
-2.9 -4.2% |
| EBIT in % of sales |
6.0 8.1% |
3.7 9.5% |
6.4 14.0% |
7.5 14.2% |
8.1 14.2% |
9.0 14.5% |
10.0 14.9% |
| Financial result | -2.9 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -2.2 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -2.3 |
| Non-operating expenses/renenues | -12.2 | -3.1 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBT in % of sales |
-9.1 -12.5% |
-2.7 -6.9% |
9.1 19.8% |
6.2 11.6% |
5.7 10.0% |
6.7 10.8% |
7.7 11.4% |
| Taxes as % of EBT |
1.5 -16.8% |
1.7 -64.9% |
-1.0 -11.3% |
-1.9 -31.0% |
-1.8 -31.0% |
-2.1 -31.0% |
-2.4 -31.0% |
| Net income including minorities | -7.6 | -0.9 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| Minority interests | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Net income (continued operations) in % of sales |
-7.6 -10.4% |
-1.1 -2.8% |
7.9 17.2% |
4.0 7.5% |
3.6 6.3% |
4.3 7.0% |
5.0 7.4% |
| Shares outstanding (in millions) | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| EPS from continued business units | -1.76 | -0.24 | 1.67 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| EPS from discontinued business units | -1.84 | -2.87 | -2.16 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EPS from continued and discontin. business units | -3.60 | -3.11 | -0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
Source: CBS Research AG, Masterflex AG
Masterflex AG
Balance Sheet
| IFRS EURm |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | |||||||
| Noncurrent assets | 52.2 | 41.8 | 34.0 | 31.3 | 31.4 | 31.6 | 31.7 |
| as % of total assets | 51.5% | 60.3% | 52.0% | 61.5% | 57.6% | 55.6% | 53.1% |
| Intangible assets | 15.1 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Fixed assets | 28.0 | 25.4 | 21.2 | 20.9 | 21.0 | 21.4 | 21.6 |
| Financial assets | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Deferred taxes | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| Others | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Current assets | 49.1 | 27.5 | 31.4 | 19.6 | 23.1 | 25.2 | 28.0 |
| as % of total assets | 48.5% | 39.7% | 48.0% | 38.5% | 42.4% | 44.4% | 46.9% |
| Inventories | 21.1 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 12.1 |
| Accounts receivables | 7.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| Other receivables and other assets | 7.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Cash | 11.0 | 7.8 | 14.4 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.9 |
| Assets held for sale | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income tax assets | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total Assets | 101.3 | 69.3 | 65.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 56.7 | 59.7 |
| Shareholders´ equity as % of total equity and liabilities Capital stock Capital reserve Retained earnings |
14.8 14.7% 4.4 17.5 -7.2 |
1.0 1.4% 4.4 17.5 -21.1 |
12.2 18.7% 8.7 26.3 -23.2 |
16.2 31.9% 8.7 26.3 -19.3 |
20.2 37.0% 8.7 26.3 -15.4 |
24.8 43.7% 8.7 26.3 -10.8 |
30.1 50.4% 8.7 26.3 -5.5 |
| Minorities | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Noncurrent liabilities | 27.2 | 25.1 | 32.8 | 20.748 | 20.4 | 17.6 | 14.8 |
| as % of total equity and liabilities | 26.8% | 36.1% | 50.1% | 40.7% | 37.5% | 31.0% | 24.8% |
| Deferred taxes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Financial liabilities | 21.5 | 19.5 | 30.0 | 18.3 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 |
| Other liabilities | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Current liabilities as % of total equity and liabilities |
59.2 58.5% |
43.3 62.4% |
20.4 31.2% |
13.9 27.4% |
13.9 25.5% |
14.4 25.3% |
14.8 24.8% |
| Other provisions | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Financial liabilities | 47.5 | 35.0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| Trade accounts payables | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Received prepayments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Other liabilities | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Accruals and deferrals | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 101.3 | 69.3 | 65.4 | 50.9 | 54.5 | 56.7 | 59.7 |
Source: CBS Research AG, Masterflex AG
Masterflex AG
Cash flow statement
| IFRS EURm |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | -7.6 | -11.2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Expenses from disposal of long-term assets | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Change in deferred taxes | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Change in long term provisions | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Change in other assets and liabilities | 9.8 | 13.7 | 1.9 | -2.5 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 9.8 |
| Investment in long-term assets | -4.7 | -1.0 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.2 |
| Income from disposal of consolidated subsidiaries | 4.6 | 10.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from the disposal of non-current assets | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Expenses from purchase of other assets | -2.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Repayment of financial assets | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | 3.9 | 10.0 | -1.3 | 1.4 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.2 |
| Payments to owners and minority interests | -3.7 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Proceeds from raising loans | 8.1 | 0.8 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Repayment of loans | -3.4 | -15.4 | -35.4 | -13.6 | -0.5 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| Others | -3.9 | -3.4 | 9.5 | -2.3 | -1.8 | -2.1 | -2.4 |
| Dividends paid | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | -2.9 | -18.2 | 2.8 | -15.9 | -2.2 | -5.0 | -5.3 |
| Total change in cash and cash equivalents Consolidation and foreign exchange effects |
6.9 -1.8 |
-3.2 -0.1 |
6.5 0.1 |
-10.0 0.1 |
1.4 0.0 |
0.6 0.0 |
1.3 0.0 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the start of the period | 5.9 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 14.4 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 6.6 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period | 11.0 | 7.8 | 14.4 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.9 |
Source: CBS Research AG, Masterflex AG
Research
Schillerstrasse 27 - 29 60313 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 (0)69 – 977 8456-0
| Roger Peeters Member of the Board |
+49 (0)69 -977 8456- 12 [email protected] |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Decot | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 13 [email protected] |
Igor Kim | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 15 [email protected] |
| Anna von Klopmann | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 10 [email protected] |
Gennadij Kremer | +49 (0)69 – 977 8456- 23 [email protected] |
| Daniel Kukalj | +49 (0)69 – 977 8456- 21 [email protected] |
Ralf Marinoni | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 17 [email protected] |
| Manuel Martin | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 16 [email protected] |
Felix Parmantier | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 22 [email protected] |
| Marcus Silbe | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 14 [email protected] |
Veysel Taze | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 18 [email protected] |
| Ivo Višić | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 19 [email protected] |
Institutional Sales
Schillerstrasse 27 – 29 60313 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 (0)69 – 9 20 54-400
Raimar Bock +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-115 Head of Sales [email protected]
Rüdiger Eich +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-119 Sule Erkan +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-107 (Germany, Switzerland) [email protected] (Sales-Support) [email protected]
Dr. James Jackson +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-113 Klaus Korzilius +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-114 (UK) [email protected] (Benelux, Germany) [email protected]
Stefan Krewinkel +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-118 Markus Laifle +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-120 (Execution, UK) [email protected] (Execution) [email protected]
Michael Laufenberg +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-112 Bruno de Lencquesaing +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-116
Christopher Seedorf +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-110 Janine Theobald +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-106 (Sales-Support) [email protected] (Austria, Germany) [email protected]
Bas-Jan Walhof +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-105 (Benelux) [email protected]
(Germany) [email protected] (Benelux, France) [email protected]
Disclaimer and statement according to § 34b German Securities Trading Act ("Wertpapierhandelsgesetz") in combination with the provisions on financial analysis ("Finanzanalyseverordnung" FinAnV)
This report has been prepared independently of the company analysed by Close Brothers Seydler Research AG and/ or its cooperation partners and the analyst(s) mentioned on the front page (hereafter all are jointly and/or individually called the 'author'). None of Close Brothers Seydler Research AG, Close Brothers Seydler Bank AG or its cooperation partners, the Company or its shareholders has independently verified any of the information given in this document.
Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act in combination with the FinAnV requires an enterprise preparing a security analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the subject of the analysis.
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG is a majority owned subsidiary of Close Brothers Seydler Bank AG (hereafter ´CBS´). However, Close Brothers Seydler Research AG (hereafter ´CBSR´) provides its research work independent from CBS. CBS is offering a wide range of Services not only including investment banking services and liquidity providing services (designated sponsoring). CBS or CBSR may possess relations to the covered companies as follows (additional information and disclosures will be made available upon request):
- a. CBS holds more than 5% interest in the capital stock of the company that is subject of the analysis.
- b. CBS was a participant in the management of a (co)consortium in a selling agent function for the issuance of financial instruments, which themselves or their issuer is the subject of this financial analysis within the last twelve months.
- c. CBS has provided investment banking and/or consulting services during the last 12 months for the company analysed for which compensation has been or will be paid for.
- d. CBS acts as designated sponsor for the company's securities on the basis of an existing designated sponsorship contract. The services include the provision of bid and ask offers. Due to the designated sponsoring service agreement CBS may regularly possess shares of the company and receives a compensation and/ or provision for its services.
- e. The designated sponsor service agreement includes a contractually agreed provision for research services.
- f. CBSR and the analysed company have a contractual agreement about the preparation of research reports. CBSR receives a compensation in return.
- g. CBS has a significant financial interest in relation to the company that is subject of this analysis.
In this report, the following conflicts of interests are given at the time, when the report has been published: d, f
CBS and/or its employees or clients may take positions in, and may make purchases and/ or sales as principal or agent in the securities or related financial instruments discussed in this analysis. CBS may provide investment banking, consulting, and/ or other services to and/ or serve as directors of the companies referred to in this analysis. No part of the authors compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the recommendations or views expressed.
Recommendation System:
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG uses a 3-level absolute share rating system. The ratings pertain to a time horizon of up to 12 months:
BUY: The expected performance of the share price is above +10%. HOLD: The expected performance of the share price is between 0% and +10%. SELL: The expected performance of the share price is below 0%.
Recommendation history over the last 12 months for the company analysed in this report:
| Date | Recommendation | Price at change date | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2011 | HOLD | EUR 6.50 | EUR 6.70 |
| 16 August 2011 | BUY | EUR 4.85 | EUR 6.70 |
| 18 November 2011 | BUY | EUR 4.72 | EUR 6.70 |
| 06 March 2012 | BUY | EUR 5.21 | EUR 6.70 |
| 04 April 2012 | BUY | EUR 5.33 | EUR 7.00 |
Risk-scaling System:
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG uses a 3-level risk-scaling system. The ratings pertain to a time horizon of up to 12 months:
LOW: The volatility is expected to be lower than the volatility of the benchmark MEDIUM: The volatility is expected to be equal to the volatility of the benchmark HIGH: The volatility is expected to be higher than the volatility of the benchmark
The following valuation methods are used when valuing companies: Multiplier models (price/earnings, price/cash flow, price/book value, EV/Sales, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), peer group comparisons, historical valuation approaches, discounting models (DCF, DDM), break-up value approaches or asset valuation approaches. The valuation models are dependent upon macroeconomic measures such as interest, currencies, raw materials and assumptions concerning the economy. In addition, market moods influence the valuation of companies. The figures taken from the income statement, the cash flow statement and the balance sheet upon which the evaluation of companies is based are estimates referring to given dates and therefore subject to risks. These may change at any time without prior notice.
The opinions and forecasts contained in this report are those of the author alone. Material sources of information for preparing this report are publications in domestic and foreign media such as information services (including but not limited to Reuters, VWD, Bloomberg, DPA-AFX), business press (including but not limited to Börsenzeitung, Handelsblatt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Financial Times), professional publications, published statistics, rating agencies as well as publications of the analysed issuers. Furthermore, discussions were held with the management for the purpose of preparing the analysis. Potentially parts of the analysis have been provided to the issuer prior to going to press; no significant changes were made afterwards, however. Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by the author with regard to the accuracy or completeness of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Possible errors or incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability, neither with regard to indirect nor to direct or consequential damages. The views presented on the covered company accurately reflect the personal views of the author. All employees of the author's company who are involved with the preparation and/or the offering of financial analyzes are subject to internal compliance regulations.
The report is for information purposes, it is not intended to be and should not be construed as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of, any of the securities mentioned in this report. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as indication of future performance. The author does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. The report is confidential and it is submitted to selected recipients only. The report is prepared for professional investors only and it is not intended for private investors. Consequently, it should not be distributed to any such persons. Also, the report may be communicated electronically before physical copies are available. It may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) to any other investment firm or any other individual person without the prior written approval from the author. The author is not registered in the United Kingdom nor with any U.S. regulatory body.
It has not been determined in advance whether and in what intervals this report will be updated. Unless otherwise stated current prices refer to the closing price of the previous trading day. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as indication of future performance. The author maintains the right to change his opinions without notice, i.e. the opinions given reflect the author's judgment on the date of this report.
This analysis is intended to provide information to assist institutional investors in making their own investment decisions, not to provide investment advice to any specific investor.
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