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LION SELECTION GROUP LIMITED. — AGM Information 2020
Dec 9, 2020
65271_rns_2020-12-09_bdbff316-a359-44eb-852d-adee7e95b66c.pdf
AGM Information
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LION SELECTION GROUP Annual General Meeting Review
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December 2020
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Disclaimer
- This presentation does not constitute investment advice. Neither this presentation nor the information contained in it constitutes an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation in relation to the purchase or sale of shares in any jurisdiction. This presentation does not take into account any person's particular investment objectives, financial resources or other relevant circumstances and the opinions and recommendations in this presentation are not intended to represent recommendations of particular investments to particular persons. To the fullest extent permitted by law, each of Lion Selection Group Limited (Lion), Lion Manager Pty Ltd (Lion Manager), or any of its related bodies corporate, or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives and advisers do not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any information, statements, opinions, estimates, forecasts or other representations contained in this presentation. No responsibility for any errors or omissions from this presentation arising out of negligence or otherwise is accepted.
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This presentation may include forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are only predictions and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are inherently speculative and outside the control of Lion and Lion Manager. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions include commodity prices, currency fluctuations, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, environmental risks and legislative, fiscal or regulatory developments, political risks, project delay or advancement, approvals and cost estimates. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that actual values, results or events will not vary significantly from those expressed or implied in this presentation. Lion and Lion Manager do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any information or any of the forward looking statements in this presentation for changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such forward looking statement is based following the date of this presentation.
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This presentation may include figures illustrating past performance. Past performance is not and should not be relied upon as a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur.
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ASX : LSX | 2
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Lion Selection Group
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Listed Mining Investment Company • ASX : LSX Established in 1997 •
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23 years track record
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- Total Shareholder Returns: 32.9% 1 year / 11.4% 3 year / 20.7% 5 year (9.0%pa over 23 years)
Pani JV – 4.6Moz between two Resource blocks, being combined into a single joint venture
Key investments: 2x Multi-Million • Ounce Gold Projects in Indonesia • Leverage to Gold – Perfect Storm of • Fundamentals •
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Nusantara – Awak Mas Gold Project 2.35Moz Resource / 1.53Moz Reserve
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Unprecedented global monetary policy backdrop
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All-time low interest rates & pandemic recovery
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Bull market commenced 2019
Key Value Unlocking Stages
Pani
- JV deal completion, project economic studies
Nusantara
- Funding, development, re-rating to producer valuation
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ASX : LSX | 3
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Highlights
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Portfolio
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Pani – Drilling & concept study complete
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Nusantara – Appointment of banking-oriented CFO, FEED nearing completion
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Erdene – debt mandate letter working toward up to US$55m senior debt funding
Mining Sector
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Gold reacting to mild strengthening in US bond rates, equities performance, vaccine news
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Totally unprecedented monetary policy backdrop – pandemic recovery, all-time low interest rates & QE
▪ Fresh equity issuance records through 2020 by explorers, producing deal fatigue
ASX : LSX | 4
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Portfolio Highlights
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ASX : LSX | 5
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Pani – NTA / Catalysts / Metrics
Potential evolution of
Implied value for Lion Pani interest
Lion holding history of Pani
Pani holding value
A$m
value of
Pani to
Lion
A$60.7m
A$39.3m
A$15.4m
Apr 2018 Nov 2018 Jul 2020 Project
JV deal economic Based on broker estimates of Based on gold developer and
Lion Merdeka completion Pani combined project value producer EV/Resource Oz and
study
Acquisition Acquisition Revaluation
EV/Reserve Oz peer averages [2]
of Pani of Pani July 2020 [1]
interest interest
ASX gold prod EV/Reserve Oz
ASX gold prod EV/Resource Oz
ASX gold expl & dev EV/Resource Oz
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ASX : LSX | 6
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Pani Drilling
▪ Drilling targeting “link” zone – preliminary program completed ▪ Concept study completed
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ASX : LSX | 7
Mineral Resources estimated on the Pani IUP and CoW are tabulated on slide 23
Partner at Pani: Merdeka (US$3B Market Cap)
Slide extracted from Merdeka Copper Gold Investor Presentation, September 2020: https://www.merdekacoppergold.com/en/i nvestor-relations/presentation/
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ASX : LSX | 8
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Nusantara Resources (ASX:NUS)
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Awak Mas – Main pit, looking north
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Multi-Million Ounce Gold Project
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2.35Moz Resource[3] / 1.53Moz Reserve[4]
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Reserve grade >2x gold industry pipeline
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Low Cost / High Margin: AISC US$875/oz[5]
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Lowest half of the gold industry cost curve
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Extremely robust margin at spot
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Long Life: 16 year LOM on current Reserves
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60% longer life than global average
Conventional Gold Mining and Processing
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1km
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Open pit mining: 4.7:1 LOM strip ratio (waste : ore)
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Gravity & CIL processing: 2.5MTpa, 93% Recovery
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ASX : LSX | 9
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Nusantara Key Shareholder: Indika
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Slide from Indika Energy Investor Presentation: https://www.indikaenergy.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Corporate-Results-Presentation-6M20-1.pdf
ASX : LSX | 10
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NPV
5
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Nusantara – Valuation Metrics
Market Prices Indika project Implied value transactions
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ASX gold prod EV/Reserve Oz
ASX gold prod EV/Resource Oz
ASX gold expl & dev EV/Resource Oz
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A$m value of Awak Mas (100% basis)
A$56m implied value of 100% of Awak Mas, based on Nusantara at 30cps
Indika Based on gold developer and Based on US$15m US$25m options Ex producer EV/Resource Oz and (at US$1700/oz)[5] 30cps for 25% for 15% 35c EV/Reserve Oz peer averages[2]
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ASX : LSX | 11
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Indonesia – Gold Mining Jurisdiction
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Globally significant gold nation
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Equal 11[th] largest producer
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Multi-asset midtier Indonesian gold miner
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4[th] largest gold Reserves
Indonesia: Absolute Essentials
Internationally competitive
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Backed by Provident, Thohir Group, Saratoga
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Fraser Institute: 27[th] of 76
✓ Partner
- Marsh: 62.7
✓ In country management
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- Multi-asset Indonesian energy, mining and services conglomerate
Access & Infrastructure
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Ports and Roads
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Grid power: <US 10c/kwhr
Bankable
- Deep / Liquid local banking industry
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Western Australia #1
Indonesia #27
Victoria #43
New South Wales #47
Burkina Faso #51
Mali #68
Score
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Indonesia – Gold Mining Jurisdiction
Fraser Institute Investment Attractiveness Index 2019
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ASX : LSX | 13
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Lion NTA – 31 October 2020
July 2020
October 2020
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| A$M | A$M | ¢ps | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pani Joint Venture | 60.7 | 61.2 | 40.7 |
| Nusantara Resources | 16.8 | 14.2 | 9.5 |
| Erdene Resources | 7.8 | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| Sihayo Gold | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Celamin Holdings | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Other | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Net Cash | 10.8 | 10.0 | 6.7 |
| Net Tangible Assets | A$77.2m | A$94.3m | 62.8¢ps |
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ASX : LSX | 14
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Mining Market Developments
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Gold VS 10 Year Bond Rates
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• Bull market commenced prior to COVID-19, when long term QE / rates assumptions reversed
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Effect of Pandemic – expansion of QE and stimulus, weakened economies
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Recent gold weakness – mild strengthening of rates, vaccine news
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ASX : LSX | 16
Gold VS Equities (S&P 500)
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Effect of stimulus and QE: equities trade at super premium
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High risk market no one can afford to be out of
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Gold ETF holdings
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2003-2020 Total Gold ETF Holdings (All Data, Monthly)
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2020 SPDR Gold Holdings (2020 only, daily)
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Junior Mining Equity Issuance
ASX
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(Source: Austex)
5B reporting companies tally
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2019: A$3,481m
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2020: A$3,465m (3 Q only)
TSXV
(Source: TMX Market Intelligence)
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2019: C$2,166m
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2020: C$3,100m (3 Q only)
Q3 2020 – Doubled quarterly equity issuance by juniors, led by gold companies
Dec 2020 – Deal fatigue
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ASX : LSX | 19
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Lion Clock: 10 O’Clock
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Notes
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Refer to ASX announcement by Lion Selection Group, 4 August 2020 “Pani Update and Valuation Revision”
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Gold company EV/Resource Oz and EV/Reserve Oz averages based on research by PCF Capital: PCF Resources Thermometer, November 2020. https://cdn-au.mailsnd.com/27632/LIdKpID6i8CP4dqrIAM_rm7PHOG9UcpafnE4LuXtBRo/2508776.pdf
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Refer to ASX announcement by Nusantara Resources, 28 April 2020 “Mineral Resource increases 18% to 2.35M ounces”
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Refer to ASX announcement by Nusantara Resources, 16 June 2020 “Awak Mas Ore Reserves Increase by 34% to 1.53m ounces”
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Refer to ASX announcement by Nusantara Resources, 29 June 2020 “Awak Mas NPV Increases by 240% to USD517m”
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Refer to One Asia Resources Limited news release 3 December 2014 (https://www.lionselection.com.au/wpcontent/uploads/2018/08/PANI%20JORC%20RESOURCE.pdf).
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Refer to J Resources 31 December 2018 Annual Report (http://www.jresources.com/investors/article/final-resources-reserves-compilation-2017to-2018)
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Pani: Mineral Resources
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| Pani IUP (Lion 33% / Merdeka 66.7%) 0.2g/t cut off6 |
Contract of Work (J Resources 100%) 0.4g/t cut off7 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Category | Tonnage (MT) Grade (g/t Au) Contained Gold (Moz) |
Tonnage (MT) Grade (g/t Au) Contained Gold (Moz) |
| Measured Indicated Inferred Total |
10.8 1.13 0.39 62.4 0.81 1.63 16.2 0.67 0.35 89.5 0.82 2.37 |
15.5 1.03 0.51 41.3 0.98 1.31 15.9 0.93 0.48 72.7 0.98 2.30 |
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Awak Mas: Mineral Resource and Ore Reserves
Mineral Resource Estimate – April 2020[3]
Ore Reserve Estimate – June 2020[4] 0.5g/t cut off
0.5g/t cut off
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| Deposit | Category | Tonnes (Mt) | Au (g/t) | Au (Moz) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awak Mas | Measured | - | - | - |
| Indicated | 41.2 | 1.37 | 1.81 | |
| Inferred | 6.1 | 1.11 | 0.22 | |
| Sub-total | 47.3 | 1.34 | 2.03 | |
| Salu Bulo | Measured | - | - | - |
| Indicated | 3.0 | 1.68 | 0.16 | |
| Inferred | 0.7 | 1.07 | 0.02 | |
| Sub-total | 3.7 | 1.56 | 0.19 | |
| Tarra | Measured | - | - | - |
| Indicated | - | - | - | |
| Inferred | 3.0 | 1.29 | 0.13 | |
| Sub-total | 3.0 | 1.29 | 0.13 | |
| TOTAL | Measured | - | - | - |
| Indicated | 44.2 | 1.39 | 1.97 | |
| Inferred | 9.8 | 1.16 | 0.37 | |
| TOTAL | 54.0 | 1.35 | 2.35 |
| Deposit | Classification | Tonnes (Mt) | Au (g/t) | Au (Moz) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awak Mas | Proved | - | - | - |
| Probable | 32.7 | 1.30 | 1.37 | |
| Salu Bulo | Proved | - | - | - |
| Probable | 2.9 | 1.66 | 0.16 | |
| Total | Proved | - | - | - |
| Probable | 35.6 | 1.33 | 1.53 | |
| Total | 35.6 | 1.33 | 1.53 |
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ASX : LSX | 23
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