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Leroy Seafood Group — Earnings Release 2016
Nov 10, 2016
3653_rns_2016-11-10_3cead7fd-b1a7-4142-9cd8-ef4b84763a46.pdf
Earnings Release
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Lerøy Seafood Group ASA
Q3 2016 November 10th Oslo
Henning Beltestad Sjur S. Malm Webjørn Barstad
Agenda
- Highlights
- Key financial figures
- Outlook
Q3 2016
- EBIT before FV adj. NOK 481 million
- EBIT/kg all inclusive NOK 15.2
- Low biomass into quarter (-10% y-o-y), high flexibility
- Harvest volume Q3 16 of 31 744 GWT, down 22% y-o-y
- Contract share of 44%
- NIBD NOK -2 752 million at end Q3 2016
- Harvest guidance 152 000 GWT for 2016
Q3 2016
- The agreement with Aker for acquisition of its shares in Havfisk ASA and Norway Seafoods Group AS was completed, and a offer to acquire all shares in the companies launched
- End October 2016 Lerøy is the sole owner in both companies
- These acquisitions will significantly strengthen Lerøy's position in the whitefish segment
Q3: Farming highlights
- Spot prices above last year
- NOS Q3/16 NOK 59.7 vs NOK 40.2 in Q3/15 (+49%)
- Down NOK 3.8/kg q-o-q, and up NOK 19.6/kg y-o-y
- Trout prices below salmon prices
- Contract prices well below spot prices
- Challenging situation in Central Norway
- Cost in increase from Q2/16
- Salmon: Cost increase q-o-q
- Trout: Cost decrease q-o-q
- Biomass at sea
- End Q2/16 at 81,700 tons vs 90,661 tons end Q2/15 (-10%)
- End Q3/16 at 100,656 tons vs 104,840 tons end Q3/15 (-4%)
Q3: VAP and S&D highlights
- Value added processing (VAP)
- Revenue NOK 524m, up 9% y-o-y
- High raw material prices is a challenge
- EBIT NOK 8.5m (1.6%) in Q3/16 vs. NOK 31m (6.5%) in Q3/15
- Sales & Distribution
- Revenue NOK 4 062m, up 27%
- High raw material prices is a challenge, but consumers willingness to pay is higher than expected
- EBIT NOK 82m (2.1%) in Q3/16 vs. NOK 60m (2.0%) in Q3/15
Quarterly historic figures
*before biomass adjustment
Havfisk and Norway Seafoods
Havfisk ASA
- Norway's largest trawler company
- 11% of the Norwegian white fish quota
- Fleet of 9 active vessels (and 1 ordered for delivery in January 2018)
- A highly modern fleet (considerable investments in recent years)
- All fish are headed and gutted on board
- Total 2015 catch 58,200 MT head off gutted weight
- 28,900 MT of cod, 7,900 MT of haddock and 9,100 MT of saithe
- Owns 5 processing plants linked to trawler licenses, operated by Norway Seafoods
Norway Seafoods Group AS
- Norway Seafoods is one of Europe's largest processing, sales and distribution companies for white fish
- Products primarily sold in large retail chains throughout Europe. Sales offices in Norway, Denmark and Spain
- 9 primary processing facilities
- 8 in Norway, 1 in Denmark
- 3 secondary production facilities
- 2 in Norway, 1 in Denmark
- Norway's largest sourcing network for white fish
- On top of 8 primary processing sites in Norway (which also buys fish) 5 buying stations, bringing a total of 13 "buying stations" along the coast of Northern Norway
- Handling more than 70,000 tons of round fish equivalents of white fish, purchased from more than 600 vessels
- 2015 turnover of NOK 1,979 million
Strategic fit
Raw material supply
- Norway Seafoods' sourcing network is a strategic asset to the enlarged Lerøy Seafood Group
- Norway's largest sourcing network, with 12 stations along the coast of Northern Norway
- 2/3 of Norwegian white fish quota is held by the coastal fleet, - the majority of this catch is landed locally
- Hence, important with local presence to secure stable access to this volume
Sales and processing integration
- Close to all of Norway Seafoods' volumes are sold into the European market; - Lerøy's key downstream market
- Ability to include Norway Seafoods' volumes into Lerøy's existing "fish-cut" facilities and hence increase factory utilization
* Facility at Melbu (in red) with VAP operations in addition to primary processing and sourcing/buying ** Vardø buying station to be closed down (31.7.2016)
Norway Seafoods sales by product (2015)
'000 tons product weight
Leveraging the strong LSG distribution network EU is our key distribution market…
- Global reach and sales to more than 70 countries
- A significant industrial activity within trading, processing, sales and distribution of fish (including white species)
- Investments in "fish cuts" in end markets recent years
- Strong European distribution, the most important market for white fish
- Seeing high demand for white fish products throughout the network
Revolution in fresh/refreshed fish distribution
Well advanced in salmon, just started for white fish
Example from low cost retailer in Norway
- Fresh and refreshed MAP packets give more efficient value chain, significant improvement in availability as well as more convenient products
- Driving demand and willingness to pay for both salmon and cod (see data beneath)
- Example from low cost retailer in Norway, which some years ago did not have fresh fish (see picture)
- In many other European markets, this trend is well advanced for salmon, but barely started for cod/white fish
- European retailers see this trend and will to an increasing extent prefer suppliers who can supply a full palette of seafood products
- Being fully integrated in both salmon and white fish, Lerøy is ideally positioned to become the "full fledged" preferred seafood supplier
Norway Natural fresh prepacked cod volume (MT prod. weight)
Sales per market and product Q3 2016
Farming volumes: Will be dependent on decisions on additional license capacity offered
| Licences | Smolt cap. |
2011 GWT |
2012 GWT |
2013 GWT |
2014 GWT |
2015 GWT |
2016E GWT |
2017E GWT |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerøy Aurora AS* | 26 | 11,5 | 18 100 | 20 000 | 24 200 | 26 800 | 29 200 | 30 000 | 39 000 |
| Lerøy Midt AS |
57 | 22,0 | 62 300 |
61 900 | 58 900 | 68 300 | 71 400 | 53 000 | 59 000 |
| Lerøy Sjøtroll | 63 | 22,6 | 56 200 | 71 600 | 61 700 | 63 200 | 57 100 | 69 000 | 67 000 |
| Total Norway | 146 | 56,1 | 136 600 | 153 400 | 144 800 |
158 300 | 157 700 | 152 000 | 165 000 |
| Villa Organic AS** | 6 000 | ||||||||
| Norskott Havbruk (UK)*** |
10 900 | 13 600 | 13 400 | 13 800 | 13 500 | 13 000 | 15 000 | ||
| Total | 147 500 | 167 100 | 158 200 | 178 100 | 171 200 | 165 000 | 180 000 |
*) Included harvested volume from Villa Organic after split July 2014
**) LSG's share of Villa Organic's volume in H1 2014, not consolidated
***) LSG's share, not consolidated
Agenda
Highlights Key financial figures Outlook
Key financial figures, Q3 2016
| (NOKm) | Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | ▲% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4 268 | 3 295 | 30 % |
| Other gains and losses | 0 | -3 | |
| EBITDA | 612 | 365 | 68 % |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 131 | 112 | |
| EBIT* | 481 | 253 | 90 % |
| Income from associates* | 75 | 15 | |
| Net finance | -22 | -37 | |
| Pre-tax profit* | 534 | 231 | 131 % |
| EPS (NOK)* | 6,36 | 3,37 | 89 % |
| Harvested Volume (GWT) | 31 744 | 40 682 | -22 % |
| EBIT*/kg all inclusive (NOK) | 15,2 | 6,2 | 144 % |
| ROCE* (%) | 17,9 % | 10,7 % | 68 % |
Key financial figures, YTD 2016
| (NOKm) | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | ▲% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12 345 | 9 886 | 25 % |
| Other gains and losses | 0 | 35 | |
| EBITDA | 2 185 | 1 336 | 64 % |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 359 | 309 | |
| EBIT* | 1 826 | 1 027 | 78 % |
| Income from associates* | 157 | 55 | |
| Net finance | -82 | -97 | |
| Pre-tax profit* | 1 901 | 985 | 93 % |
| EPS (NOK)* | 23,45 | 12,95 | 81 % |
| Harvested Volume (GWT) | 111 039 | 116 000 | -4 % |
| EBIT*/kg all inclusive (NOK) | 16,4 | 8,9 | 86 % |
| ROCE* (%) | 21 % | 15 % | 43 % |
* Before biomass adjustment
Balance sheet
| (NOKm) | 30.09.2016 | 31.12.2015 | ▲% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets |
7 229 | 4 391 | 65 % |
| Tangible fixed assets | 4 281 | 2 900 | 48 % |
| Financial non-current assets | 725 | 695 | 4 % |
| Total non-current assets |
12 236 | 7 987 | 53 % |
| Biological assets at cost |
3 469 | 3 350 | 4 % |
| Fair value adjustment of biomass | 920 | 971 | -5 % |
| Other inventory | 753 | 552 | 36 % |
| Receivables | 2 078 | 1 877 | 11 % |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1 944 | 1 248 | 56 % |
| Total current assets |
9 165 | 7 997 | 15 % |
| Total assets | 21 400 | 15 984 | 34 % |
| Equity | 12 367 | 8 764 | 41 % |
| Equity ratio | 57,8 % | 54,8 % | 5 % |
| NIBD | 2 752 | 2 595 | 6 % |
Funding
| NOK million | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Later | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To be paid | 420 | 462 | 439 | 568 | 414 | 2 184 | 4 487 |
| Total | 730 | 462 | 439 | 568 | 414 | 2 184 | 4 796 |
| Covenants | Q3 2016 | |
|---|---|---|
| NIBD/EBITDA | <5 | 1,03 |
| Adj. Equity ratio | >30 % | 75.2 % |
Cash flow / NIBD
| Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | FY 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 612 | 365 | 2 185 | 1 336 | 1 814 |
| Paid tax | -1 | -7 | -201 | -357 | -376 |
| Working capital | 1 | -199 | 138 | -347 | -662 |
| Other ** | 31 | 20 | 14 | -29 | -8 |
| Cash from operating activities | 643 | 178 | 2 135 | 603 | 767 |
| Acquisitions and purchase of shares from minorities *** | -2 367 | 0 | -2 367 | -68 | -88 |
| Net investments in capex and licences | -170 | -128 | -492 | -412 | -576 |
| Dividends received | 25 | 49 | 77 | 49 | 49 |
| Other investments and disvestments | 111 | 26 | 32 | -48 | -50 |
| Cash from investing activities | -2 401 | -53 | -2 750 | -480 | -665 |
| Net financial cost | -33 | -36 | -93 | -91 | -128 |
| New equity | 0 | 0 | 2 174 | 0 | 1 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | -664 | -680 | -680 |
| Cash from financing activities * | -33 | -36 | 1 416 | -772 | -807 |
| Change in NIBD from business combinations | -985 | 0 | -985 | -7 | -6 |
| Other changes (incl.currency effects) | 18 | -13 | 26 | -3 | -7 |
| Net cash flow / change in NIBD | -2 759 | 77 | -157 | -658 | -719 |
| NIBD at beginning | -7 | 2 611 | 2 595 | 1 876 | 1 876 |
| -77 | 157 | 658 | 719 | ||
| Change in NIBD | 2 759 |
*** Amount actually paid, before cash receiv ed through business combinations
EBIT per segment
** Only included one month
Lerøy Aurora
| Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NOKm) | 279 | 285 | 1 045 | 907 |
| EBIT* (NOKm) | 79 | 91 | 371 | 269 |
| Harvested volume (GWT) |
4 286 | 5 497 | 17 465 | 18 833 |
| EBIT/kg* (NOK) | 18.4 | 16.6 | 21.2 | 14.3 |
- As expected higher RFS (release-from-stock) cost qo-q, with higher feed costs
- One site with with external smolt with disappointing results
- Expect lower RFS cost from Q4 2016
- Strong growth on 2016G
- Expected harvest volume in 2017 39,000GWT
EBIT*/kg
Lerøy Midt
| Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NOKm) | 769 | 864 | 2 270 | 2 240 |
| EBIT* (NOKm) | 113 | 86 | 560 | 419 |
| Harvested volume (GWT) |
14 161 | 21 922 | 41 901 | 56 292 |
| EBIT/kg* (NOK) | 8.0 | 3.9 | 13.4 | 7.4 |
- A very challenging quarter
- Low average harvest weights has significant impact on price realisation, cost, and produced volume
- Positive development into Q4 2016 and expect significant reductions in costs
- Expected harvest volume in 2017 is 59,000 GWT
23 * Before biomass adjustment
Lerøy Sjøtroll
| Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NOKm) | 907 | 574 | 3 227 | 1 840 |
| EBIT* (NOKm) | 200 | 2 | 654 | 78 |
| Harvested volume (GWT) |
13 297 | 13 263 | 51 672 | 40 875 |
| EBIT/kg* (NOK) | 15.4 | 0.1 | 12.8 | 1.9 |
- 66% of quarterly harvest volume was trout, which continue to be priced at a discount to salmon.
- Positive development in production. RFS cost decline q-o-q.
- Expected harvest volume in 2017 is 67 000 GWT
Norskott Havbruk (associate)
| Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NOKm) | 512 | 463 | 1 366 | 1 131 |
|
| EBIT* (NOKm) | 151 | 36 | 333 | 116 | |
| Harvested volume (GWT) |
8 148 | 8 588 | 22 284 | 20 733 | |
| EBIT/kg* (NOK) | 18.6 | 4.2 | 15.0 | 5.6 |
EBIT*/kg
- Strong quarter
- Contract share 50%
- Biological challenges in Shetland region led to early harvest of some sites with negative impact on volume in Q3, Q4 and Q1 2017
- Good biological situation in both Scotland and Orkney
- Expected harvest volume in 2017 is 30 000 GWT
25 * Before biomass adjustment
*before biomass adj
VAP – Value Added Processing
| Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NOKm) | 524 | 482 | 1 595 |
1 374 |
| EBIT (NOKm) |
8 | 31 | 45 | 67 |
| EBIT margin |
1.6 % | 6.5 % | 2.8 % | 4.9 % |
- Challenging price environment
- Continued focus on adjusting sales prices to reflect raw material prices, which appear to be high for foreseeable future
Revenue and EBIT margin
Sales & Distribution
| Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NOKm) | 3 845 |
3 024 |
11 524 | 9 291 |
| EBIT (NOKm) |
82 | 60 | 213 | 190 |
| EBIT margin |
2.1 % | 2.0 % | 1.8 % | 2.0 % |
- Underlying positive development in many operations, but it takes time to adjust product prices to reflect raw material price
- Direct relationship with retailers give efficient value chain, and ability to "test" prices on end consumers. End consumers willingness to pay have been higher than expected
Agenda
- Highlights
- Key financial figures
- Outlook
Atlantic salmon – Supply in tons WFE
| Change | Change | Change | Change | Change | Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 11-12 | 2013 | 12-13 | 2014 | 13-14 | 2015 | 14-15 | 2016 | 15-16 | 2017 | 16-17 | |
| Norway | 1 183 100 |
17 7 % , |
1 143 600 |
-3 3 % , |
1 199 000 |
4 8 % , |
1 234 200 |
2 9 % , |
1 182 900 |
-4 2 % , |
1 219 200 |
3 1 % , |
| United Kingdom |
159 400 |
3 0 % , |
157 800 |
-1 0 % , |
170 500 |
8 0 % , |
166 300 |
-2 5 % , |
163 000 |
-2 0 % , |
170 300 |
4 5 % , |
| Faroe Islands |
70 300 |
24 9 % , |
72 600 |
3 3 % , |
82 700 |
13 9 % , |
76 900 |
0 % -7 , |
80 000 |
4 0 % , |
89 700 |
12 1 % , |
| Ireland | 15 600 |
-2 5 % , |
10 600 |
-32 1 % , |
12 300 |
16 0 % , |
15 700 |
27 6 % , |
15 000 |
-4 5 % , |
17 000 |
13 3 % , |
| Iceland | 2 900 |
190 0 % , |
3 100 |
6 9 % , |
4 000 |
29 0 % , |
200 5 |
30 0 % , |
600 7 |
46 2 % , |
11 000 |
44 % 7 , |
| Total Europe |
1 431 300 |
16 0 % , |
1 387 700 |
-3 0 % , |
1 468 500 |
5 8 % , |
1 498 300 |
2 0 % , |
1 448 500 |
-3 3 % , |
1 507 200 |
4 1 % , |
| Chile | 364 000 |
64 7 % , |
468 100 |
28 6 % , |
582 900 |
24 5 % , |
598 200 |
2 6 % , |
483 600 |
-19 2 % , |
501 700 |
3 7 % , |
| Canada | 136 500 |
14 2 % , |
115 100 |
-15 7 % , |
95 000 |
-17 5 % , |
135 200 |
42 3 % , |
143 500 |
6 1 % , |
141 000 |
-1 7 % , |
| USA | 19 600 |
1 % 7 , |
20 300 |
3 6 % , |
24 000 |
18 2 % , |
20 200 |
-15 8 % , |
21 500 |
6 4 % , |
22 000 |
2 3 % , |
| Australia | 40 000 |
11 1 % , |
39 000 |
-2 5 % , |
42 000 |
7 7 % , |
55 000 |
31 0 % , |
56 000 |
1 8 % , |
58 000 |
3 6 % , |
| Others | 8 100 |
62 0 % , |
11 200 |
38 3 % , |
15 200 |
35 % 7 , |
14 900 |
-2 0 % , |
12 900 |
-13 4 % , |
13 100 |
1 6 % , |
| Total Others |
568 200 |
42 1 % , |
653 700 |
15 0 % , |
759 100 |
16 1 % , |
823 500 |
8 5 % , |
717 500 |
-12 9 % , |
735 800 |
2 6 % , |
| Total World-wide |
1 999 500 |
22 4 % , |
2 041 400 |
2 1 % , |
2 227 600 |
9 1 % , |
2 321 800 |
4 2 % , |
2 166 000 |
-6 7 % , |
2 243 000 |
3 6 % , |
H1 16 NOK 60,79 vs H1 15 38,81 (+56,6)
Q3 16 NOK 59,72 vs Q3 15 NOK 40,17 (+48,67 %)
SPOT prices, fresh Atlantic salmon cross-section, FCA Oslo as of week 42-2016 (Superior quality).
Source: Lerøy/Nasdax
Atlantic salmon - Harvest Quantities Norway in tons WFE
2016
Atlantic salmon - Harvest Quantities Norway in tons WFE
2017
Atlantic salmon - Harvest Quantities UK in tons WFE
Atlantic salmon - Harvest Quantities UK in tons WFE
Atlantic salmon - Harvest Quantities Chile in tons WFE
Atlantic salmon - Harvest Quantities WW in tons WFE
Atlantic Salmon Consumption Q3 2016
NOK/KG (3 -6) Q3: 60,80 +48,4 % (40,98) (NSI -0,75 vs NOS)
Salmon
| Market | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Growth | Growth % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E U |
261 800 |
276 200 |
273 800 |
2 400 - |
1 % - |
| USA | 91 600 |
101 800 |
98 500 |
3 300 - |
3 % - |
| Japan | 15 200 |
16 300 |
15 600 |
700 - |
4 % - |
| Other Markets |
155 700 |
163 600 |
145 300 |
18 300 - |
11 % - |
| Russia | 43 700 |
32 500 |
17 800 |
14 700 - |
45 % - |
| Total Consumption |
568 000 |
590 400 |
551 000 |
39 400 - |
7 % - |
2014 2015 2016 Growth %
Atlantic Salmon Consumption YTD october - 2016
NOK/KG (3 -6) YTD w42: 61,31 +54,2 % (39,75) (NSI -0,75 vs NOS)
| Salmon Market - |
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Grow th |
Grow th % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 52 | 47 | 51 | 4 | 9 |
| 000 | 100 | 500 | 400 | % | |
| USA | 307 | 342 | 350 | 7 | 2 |
| 300 | 700 | 400 | 700 | % | |
| EU | 831 | 891 | 876 | -15 | -2 |
| 500 | 500 | 300 | 200 | % | |
| Other | 504 | 523 | 496 | -27 | -5 |
| Markets | 000 | 900 | 700 | 200 | % |
| Russia | 128 | 91 | 60 | -30 | -34 |
| 300 | 000 | 400 | 600 | % | |
| Total Consumption |
1 823 100 |
1 896 200 |
1 835 300 |
-60 900 |
-3 % |
Figures as per 31.10.2016 Source: Kontali/Nasdax
EU consumption growth and price at boarder Norway
Outlook
- Market outlook supports strong prices
- Global supply decline of ~7% in 2016
- Global supply increase of 3-4% in 2017
- Harvest guidance 180.000 GWT (including associates) for 2017
• Expected contract share Q4 ~35%
Integration – Havfisk and Norway Seafoods as part of Lerøy
- Havfisk becomes a new upstream segment within Lerøy Seafood Group
- Norway Seafoods Group natural part of VAP and Sales & Distribution segment
Havfisk ASA
| Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NOKm) | 363 | 267 | 1 020 | 771 |
| EBITDA (NOKm) |
137 | 87 | 362 | 261 |
| EBIT (NOKm) |
106 | 56 | 272 | 168 |
| Catch volume (H/G) |
17 189 | 12 765 | 50 378 | 41 429 |
| -of which Cod | 8 592 | 22 049 | ||
| -of which Haddock | 977 | 10 131 | ||
| -of which Saithe |
3445 | 8 773 | ||
| -of which Shrimps | 177 | 1 433 | ||
| -of which Other | 3998 | 7 991 |
||
| EBITDA/kg* (NOK) | 8.0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 6.3 |
- Consolidated in LSG from 01.09.2016. One month, equal to EBIT of NOK 18m, included in LSG's consolidated accounts in Q3
- In Q3 2016 catch value per day increased by 38% due to change in fleet structure, higher catch efficiency and change in product mix with less shrimps
- Lower fuel costs in Q3, but slightly increased maintenance costs
- Remaining quota for Q4:
- Cod 7 834 MT
- Haddock 2 092
- Saithe 2 096
- +Other
Outlook HAVFISK
Robust quota situation 2017:
Cod
Same quota as 2016, new management strategy implemented Increasing F with increasing SSB
Increased annual change rule (20%)
- Haddock Quota reduction of 5%
- Saithe North ICES advice + 7%
- Saithe S
ICES advice + 61% (vessel level ca. +35%)
Cod - new management strategy
Outlook HAVFISK
Scientific expectations beyond 2017:
- Cod expected to stabilize over the next years
- Indications that level of old fish is underestimated
- Haddock expected to reduce further to around 150 200 000 MT (15 30%) and stabilize there
- Saithe expected to be stable or increase slowly over the next years
Markets
- Demand for cod is good and prices increasing
- Returned to normal prices for haddock
- Stable saithe prices
- More challenging markets for shrimp and redfish