Investor Presentation • Nov 12, 2015
Investor Presentation
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12th November 2015
While the company has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the facts stated in this presentation are accurate and that the opinions contained in it are fair and reasonable, this presentation is selective in nature and is intended to provide an introduction to, and an overview of the Company's business. Any opinions expressed in this presentation are subject to change without notice and neither the Company nor any other person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation. Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external sources, you should not interpret that the Company has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate.
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realised from the proposals described herein. Forward-looking statements may include, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation, and supply and demand. The Company has based these forward-looking statements on its views and assumptions with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and the Company does not undertake any duty to update the information and forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.
This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any shares in the Company and neither this presentation or anything in it shall form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
II.I. Portfolio and Operating Performance
| 30 Sep 2015 |
(YOY) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of units | 109,602 | +12.4% | ||
| In-place rent (sqm) | €5.19 (€5.22*) | +1.8% (+2.5%*) | ||
| EPRA-Vacancy | 3.2% (3.2%*) | (+/-0 bps) |
| High-Growth Markets | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2015 |
(YOY) |
||
| # of units | 33,561 | +5.9% | |
| In-place rent (sqm) | €5.83 (€5.85*) |
+2.1% (+2.8%*) |
|
| EPRA-Vacancy | 1.4% (1.3%*) |
+10 bps (+/-0 bps*) |
| Stable Markets with Attractive Yields | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2015 | (YOY) |
||
| # of units | 44,148 | +22.5% | |
| In-place rent (sqm) | €4.91 (€4.92*) |
+2.0% (+2.0%*) |
|
| EPRA-Vacancy | 3.5% (3.7%*) |
-40 bps (-20 bps*) |
| Higher-Yielding Markets | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2015 | (YOY) |
||
| # of units | 30,436 | +7.6% | |
| In-place rent (sqm) | €4.80 (€4.82*) |
+1.9% (+2.4%*) |
|
| EPRA-Vacancy | 5.3% (5.3%*) |
+30 bps (+30 bps*) |
* like-for-like
Attractive portfolio + operational excellence = strong rental growth
Margin expansion on back of sound topline growth + cost discipline
| Condensed Income Statement (€ million) |
FY-2014 | 9M-2015 | 9M-2014 | Higher rental income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net rental and lease income |
284.9 | 242.4 | 213.1 | (+€38.7m/+13.5%) NRI-margin increased from 74.4% to 74.5% YOY (75.8% |
| Net income from the disposal of investment property | -1.7 | 0.7 | -0.3 | to 76.1% w/o one-time costs) despite higher maintenance |
| Net income from the valuation of investment property | 143.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | (+29% YOY) |
| Net income from the disposal of real estate inventory | -3.1 | -0.5 | -2.6 | Higher one-time costs (+€4.6m to €6.5m) Recurring admin. costs of |
| Net income from other services | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | €24.5m (+€0.6m YOY), temporary increase mainly |
| Administrative and other expenses | -41.6 | -32.7 | -28.4 | due to first time consolidation effects Decreasing cost base in 2016 expected to contribute to further margin expansion |
| Other income | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Operating earnings |
381.7 | 210.6 | 182.4 | One-time refinancing costs (-€46.7 m) |
| Net finance costs |
-162.2 | -220.5 | -87.7 | Net income from fair value measurement of derivatives (-€77.9m; thereof -€76.7m from convertible) |
| Earnings before income taxes |
219.5 | -9.8 | 94.7 | |
| Income tax expense |
-62.7 | -12.1 | -26.5 | Cash taxes -€1.1m (including an aperiodic effect of -€0.9m) |
| Consolidated net profit |
156.8 | -21.9 | 68.2 |
| € million |
9M-2015 | 9M-2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental income | 325.3 | 286.6 | +€38.7m (+13.5% YOY) |
| Profit from operating expenses | -0.6 | 1.0 | |
| Maintenance | -36.5 | -28.3 | |
| Staff costs | -27.4 | -24.4 | |
| Allowances on rent receivables | -4.7 | -3.6 | |
| Other | -10.4 | -15.1 | |
| Non-recurring project costs (rental and lease) |
1.8 | 0.9 | |
| Current net rental and lease income | 247.5 | 217.1 | +€30.4m (+14.0% YOY); |
| Current net income from other services | 1.8 | 1.7 | further cost savings from efficiency program expected |
| Staff costs | -16.4 | -16.3 | |
| Non-staff operating costs | -14.8 | -10.5 | |
| LTIP (long-term incentive programme) | 0.2 | 1.0 | |
| Non-recurring project costs (admin.) | 6.4 | 1.8 | |
| Extraordinary and prior-period expenses | 0.1 | 0.1 | Decreasing admin. cost base |
| Current administrative expenses | -24.5 | -23.9 | in 2016 expected |
| Other income and expenses | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 225.4 | 195.5 | +€29.9m (+15.3% YOY) |
| Cash interest expenses and income | -66.7 | -70.4 | |
| Cash income taxes | -0.2 | -1.1 | +€34.5m supported by topline |
| FFO I (not including disposal of investment property) | 158.5 | 124.0 | growth and margin expansion |
| Net income from the disposal of investment properties | 0.7 | -0.3 | |
| FFO II (including disposal of investment property) | 159.2 | 123.7 | |
| Capex | -33.5 | -26.7 | |
| Capex-adjusted FFO I (AFFO) | 125.0 | 97.3 |
| € million |
FY-2014 | 9M-2015 | 9M-2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported interest expense |
128.5 | 145.9 | 93.8 | Refinancing costs of €46.7m (P+L effective) |
| Interest expense related to loan amortisation |
-24.6 | -27.4 | -16.9 | Including valuation of |
| Prepayment penalties | 0.0 | -7.2 | 0.0 | the convertible (€4.8m) and effects from |
| Interest charges relating to valuation of assets/liabilities |
-2.3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | refinancing (€6.0m) |
| Leasing related interest expense | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.0 | |
| Interest expenses related to changes in pension provisions |
-4.0 | -2.2 | -2.9 | |
| Other interest expenses | -0.2 | -39.6 | -0.2 | Release of swaps (refinancing) ~€39.5m |
| Bank charges | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Interest income | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.8 | Lower ø cost of debt |
| Cash effective interest expense | 94.5 | 66.7 | 70.4 | Interest coverage improved further (3.4x up from 2.8x YOY) |
| € million |
30.09.2015 | 31.12.2014 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (excl. minority interests) |
2,410.6 | * 2,476.2 |
| Effect of exercising options, convertibles and other rights |
418.9 | 308.7 |
| NAV | 2,829.5 | 2,784.9 |
| Fair value measurement of derivative financial instruments | 167.4 | 136.1 |
| Deferred taxes** | 381.3 | 373.7 |
| EPRA-NAV | 3,378.2 | 3,294.7 |
| Number of shares fully-diluted incl. convertible (m)*** |
63.394 | 62.043 |
| EPRA-NAV per share in € | 53.29 | 53.10 |
| Goodwill, resulting from synergies | 26.4 | * 26.4 |
| Adjusted EPRA-NAV (excl. goodwill) |
3,351.8 | 3,268.3 |
| Adjusted EPRA-NAV per share in € | 52.87 | 52.69 |
Capital increase (€72.9m)
Rental rental yield of 7.3% signals future upside; first moderate yield compression in Q4
* Adjustment arising from final PPA of Vitus transaction *** Actual number of shares outstanding 58.260m ** And goodwill resulting from deferred taxes on investment properties
| Strong momentum in orange markets |
|
|---|---|
| Markets | Change |
| Total valuation uplift | €265m - €285m (+4.4 – 4.7%) |
| Orange markets | c.+7.5% |
| Green and purple markets |
c.+2.5 – 2.8% |
| Selected Markets | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Cities | Segment | Valuation Uplift | |
| Dusseldorf | High-Growth | ~9.0% | |
| Cologne | High-Growth | ~12.5% | |
| Dortmund | Stable | ~3.0% | |
| Essen | Stable | ~3.0% | |
| Duisburg | Higher-Yielding | ~2.0% | |
| Gelsenkirchen | Higher-Yielding | ~5.0% |
* Expected results
| € million |
30.09.2015 | 31.12.2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment property | 6,093.5 | 5,914.3 | Additions €189.9m Capex €33.5m |
| Prepayment for investment property |
0.6 | 16.8 | Reclassification -€47.5m |
| Other non-current assets | 140.9 | * 155.1 |
|
| Non-current assets | 6,235.0 | 6,086.2 | Cash flow from operating activities (€120.0m) |
| Receivables and other assets | 60.0 | 35.9 | Dividend distribution |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 378.2 | 129.9 | (-€111.8m) Net acquisitions and capex |
| Current assets | 438.2 | 165.8 | measure (-€126.5m) |
| Assets held for disposal | 41.2 | 58.4 | Capital increase (€72.9m) |
| Total Assets | 6,714.4 | 6,310.4 | |
| Equity | 2,426.8 | * 2,490.4 |
Equity ratio of 36.1% |
| Non-current financial liabilities | 2,851.4 | 2,546.5 | |
| Other non-current liabilities |
609.4 | 612.3 | |
| Non-current liabilities | 3,460.8 | 3,158.8 | |
| Current financial liabilities | 492.9 | 413.8 | |
| Other current liabilities | 333.9 | * 247.4 |
|
| Current liabilities | 826.8 | 661.2 | |
| Total Equity and Liabilities |
6,714.4 | 6,310.4 |
* Adjustment arising from final PPA of Vitus transaction
| € million |
30.09.2015 | 31.12.2014 |
|---|---|---|
| Financial debt | 3,344.3 | 2,960.3 |
| Cash & cash equivalents | 378.2 | 129.9 |
| Net Debt |
2,966.1 | 2,830.4 |
| Investment properties | 6,093.5 | 5,914.3 |
| Properties held for sale | 41.2 | 58.4 |
| Prepayment for investment properties |
0.6 | 16.8 |
| Property values |
6,135.3 | 5,989.5 |
| Loan to Value (LTV) in % | 48.3 | 47.3 |
| Equity | 2,426.8 | * 2,490.4 |
Positive impact on LTV from future conversion of convertible expected (currently -420bps)
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 End of declining population 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% Index = 1975 CAGR 2011 - 2014 Cities entering upswing mode Bielefeld Mönchengladbach Krefeld Dortmund Essen
Source: CBRE, Destatis * Net income pre tax and social insurance contributions and including received transfer payments
| Key Figures | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential units | c.13,800 | ||
| Total sqm | c.862 k |
||
| Rent (€/sqm) | 4.84 | ||
| Market rent (€/sqm) |
5.09 | ||
| Vacancy (%) | 6.3% | ||
| Commercial units |
c.50 | ||
| Parking | c.2,330 | ||
| Other | c.50 |
| High-Growth Markets | |
|---|---|
Gutersloh, Bielefeld, Essen, Siegen, Siegburg
| Highlights | |
|---|---|
| Highly concentrated portfolio structure allows efficient property management Portfolio is located in urban regions/commuter belts benefitting from strong migration to Germany and especially to NRW LEG's product (affordable housing) well-suited for increasing net immigration to NRW |
| Commercial units |
c.50 | Locations | Units | Units | Market | Rent | Market | Vacancy | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parking | c.2,330 | acquired | LEG combined |
€/sqm | rent €/sqm |
Vacancy | |||
| Other | c.50 | ||||||||
| Gelsenkirchen | c.3,830 | c.6,740 | 4.86 | 9.5% | |||||
| Bergkamen | c.2,200 | c.2,810 | 4.52 | 4.3% | |||||
| Marl | c.2,080 | c.2,740 | 5.14 | 7.3% | |||||
| Herne | c.1,990 | c.2,710 | 4.97 | 6.6% | |||||
| Herten | c.1,030 | c.1,170 | 4.95 | 5.1% | |||||
| High-Growth Markets | Dortmund | c.730 | c.13,270 | 4.45 | 2.6% | ||||
| Stable Markets | Monchengladb. | c.410 | c.6,460 | 5.31 | 4.9% | ||||
| Higher Yielding Markets | Ratingen | c.300 | c.3,130 | 5.83 | 4.0% | ||||
| Krefeld | c.210 | c.1,330 | 4.40 | 5.3% | |||||
| Total1 | c. 13,800 | c. 48,060 | 4.84 | 5.09 | 6.3% | <5.0% | |||
| 1 Total Portfolio includes further units in Koblenz, |
| Key Figures | |
|---|---|
| Purchase price |
c.€600m |
| Asset value/sqm (€) |
c.€710 |
| Rental yield/multiple (in-place rents) |
7.8% (12.8x) |
| Rental yield/multiple (estimated rental values) |
8.2% (12.2x) |
| Signing | mid December 2015 |
| Expected closing |
31 March 2016 |
Portfolio breakdown by macro and micro locations
| Deal # |
Units acquired |
Geographic focus |
Market | Annual net cold rent |
In place rent/sqm |
Vacancy rate |
Signing | Purchase price |
Expected closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 713 | Cologne, Leverkusen, Sankt Augustin |
high growth/ stable |
EUR 3.5m | EUR 5.33 | 2.9% | April 2015 | not disclosed | retroactively as of 1 June 2015 |
| 2 | c.3,500 | Top 2 locations ~60% (Bielefeld, Detmold) |
stable | EUR 14.2m | EUR 5.22 | 3.6% | June 2015 (agreement) |
EUR 225m | January 2016 |
| 3 | 2,037 | stable/ higher yielding |
EUR 7.7m | EUR 5.04 | 6.7% | August 2015 | not disclosed | January 2016 | |
| 4 | c.13,800 | NRW | higher yielding/ stable |
c.EUR 48m |
EUR 4.84 | 6.3% | November 2015 (agreement) |
c.EUR 600m |
1 April 2016 |
| c.20,000 |
| 31.10.2015 | Closing | Change | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units | In-place rent € / sqm |
Occupancy | In-place rent € / sqm |
Occupancy | In-place rent € / sqm |
Occupancy | |
| Portfolio incl. Vitus transaction |
20,869* | 5.12 | 95.9% | 4.87 | 95.5% | 0.25 (+5.1%) | ~ +40 bp |
Dynamic rent growth confirms attractive reversionary potential
Average in-place rents +5.1% (within avg. 17.1 months)
* Acquisitions since end-2012
| 2015 | Guidance |
|---|---|
| FFO I: | €200m - €204m /€3.47 - €3.54 per share |
| L-F-L rent growth: | 2.4 - 2.6% |
| L-F-L vacancy: | Approx. 2.8% (FY-14 comparable: 2.8%) |
| Dividend: | 65% of FFO I |
| 2016 | |
|---|---|
| FFO I: | €254m - €259m (up from €233 - €238m)/ €4.00 - €4.09 + upside from Vonovia acquisition of 3 – 4% |
| L-F-L rent growth: | 2.4 – 2.6% |
| 2017 | |
|---|---|
| FFO I: | €279m - €284m |
| L-F-L rent growth | 3.0 – 3.3% |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 2014 | 2013 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| €m | margin % |
€m | margin % | |
| As reported |
259.3 | 66.5 | 231.7 | 64.3 |
| Gap restricted vs. unrestricted rents* | 21.2 | 68.2 | 22.5 | 66.4 |
* €/sqm: €4.61 vs. €5.33 in 2014, €4.50 vs. €5.24 in 2013
| Date | Report/Event |
|---|---|
| 12.11.2015 | Quarterly Report 9M as of 30 September 2015 |
| 13.11.2015 | Roadshow Amsterdam, Kempen |
| 18.11.2015 | Roadshow London, Morgan Stanley |
| 19.11.2015 | Roadshow Paris, KeplerCheuvreux |
| 13.01.2016 | J.P. Morgan European Real Estate CEO Conference, London |
| 20.01.2016 | Unicredit / KeplerCheuvreux 15th German Corporate Conference, Frankfurt |
| March 2016 | Annual Report 2015 |
Burkhard Sawazki Head of Investor Relations Phone: +49 211 4568 204 [email protected]
Karin Widenmann Katharina Golke Manager Investor Relations Investor Relations Phone: +49 211 4568 458 Phone: +49 211 4568 294 [email protected] katharina.golke@leg.ag
Hans-Boeckler-Str. 38 40476 Dusseldorf Germany
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