Investor Presentation • Aug 13, 2020
Investor Presentation
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Post merger integration of Ålö on track: Profitability improvements in line with expectations despite headwinds from pandemic. Ålö raised group's sales by €46m in Q2 with an adj. EBIT margin of 12.8 %
Severe Covid-19 pandemic impact on Q2 operations: Including Ålö's acquisition, total group sales down by -13% to €175m with adj. EBIT of €11m and adj. EBIT margin of 6.3%. Organic sales down by -36% with an adj. EBIT margin of 4.0%.
High operational flexibility: Swift adjustment of production volumes and COGS to sharp drop in demand. Gross margin stable at 25.2%.
Strong cash generation intact: Free cash flow remained positive reaching € +12.1m despite strong sales decline. Net Working Capital as % of LTM sales up to 22.3% due to lower sales.
Positive net income despite massive pandemic disruptions in all our regions: Reported net income reached €5m, aided by a positive finance result and positive tax income. Adj. net income only down -29% to €10m.
| EUROPE | NORTH AMERICA | APA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRUCK | Q2 heavy truck production -57% strongly impacted by OEM plant shutdowns in April. |
Class 8 production massively -76% down due to OEM plant closures in April and May |
Strong recovery of Chinese -10% demand boosted Q2 truck production despite lockdowns in India and South Africa |
| TRAILER | Strong decline due to the -45% pandemic spread, even though OEMs did not close completely |
Production impacted by -53% pandemic induced shutdowns and economic uncertainty |
Recovery in China supported -20% trailer production, but region still suffered from lockdowns in India and South Africa |
| TRACTORS | Agricultural tractor production fell due to isolated OEM plant -25% closures. Demand impacted by lockdowns in Italy and Spain |
Demand for high HP tractors fell in Q2 due to the effects of -22% the pandemic and economic uncertainty |
|
| -38% organic / -11% reported |
-51% organic / -20% reported |
-10% organic / -13% reported |
Note: Market estimates for heavy truck based on LMC, Clear Consulting, FTR and OEMs announcements (as of August 2020)
RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED EARNINGS Q2 2020 (IN M€)
• The increase in financial liabilities due to the acquisition of Ålö led to a reduction of ROCE and equity ratio as well as to an increase of net debt and leverage, compared to year-end. This was further exacerbated by low earnings in Q2 2020, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic . Accordingly:
• Liquid assets increased to € 113m, compared to year-end, despite the use of €50m cash to finance part of the acquisition. This was mostly due to the significant improvement of the cash flow from operating activities, which resulted in an increase of the free cash flow by € 14.9m to € 30.2m (H1 2019: € 15.4m)
1 ROCE=LTM adj. EBIT / interest-bearing capital employed (interest-bearing capital: equity + financial liabilities [excl. refinancing costs] – liquid assets + provisions for pensions)
2 Net debt = Interest-bearing capital (excl. refinancing costs) – liquid assets
3 Leverage = Net debt/LTM adj. EBITDA [LTM EBITDA H1 2020 = € 95m; LTM EBITDA FY 2019 = € 101m]
COMMENTARY
• Cash conversion rate remained strong at 80.7% despite the decrease in adj. EBITDA during Q2 2020. The EBITDA reduction was mostly driven by the negative economic impact of the pandemic on JOST's sales and earnings. Free cash flow remained positive at € +12.1m despite much lower sales.
• Capex in Q2 2020 amounted to € 3.5m or 2.0% of total sales, thus within expected range of approx. 2.5% of sales for the full year, despite significant decrease in sales
1Free cash flow = Operating cash flow – capex
2Cash conversion = (adjusted EBITDA – capex)/adjusted EBITDA
3Capex = Payments to acquire property, plant and equipment + payments to acquire intangible assets
EUROPE NORTH AMERICA APA (35) – (30)%
Demand for heavy duty trucks expected to improve slightly in H2.
Strong decline due to the pandemic, following an already weak 2019
TRACTORS
TRUCK
TRAILER
Demand for agricultural tractors showing signs of improvements. Market to end on upper end of range.
(55) – (50)% (15) – (10)%
Production of class 8 trucks extremely low. Dealer channels full.
$$
(25) - (20)\% \qquad \qquad (45) - (40)\% \qquad \qquad \qquad (15) - (10)\%
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The pandemic has affected trailer production but market expectations have improved slightly
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(15) - (10)\%
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Demand for agricultural tractors remains weak. Market expected to end on the lower end of range.
Market expectations for APA improved due to a strong recovery in China, which should continue in H2.
Strong recovery in China has boosted trailer demand in the region, improving FY market expectations
Note: Market estimates for heavy truck based on LMC, Clear Consulting and FTR and OEMs announcements (as of August 2020)
JOST current observations – situation is extremely dynamic and changes rapidly
TRUCK
All European truck OEMs back in production. Production volumes increased in June and July. Current EDI demand for HY2 solid but below PY.
All truck OEMs open but producing on very low volumes. Markets seemed to have reached bottom in June and volumes are slowly picking up.
Truck market in China up to August with high demand, but legislation change in September adds uncertainty. India market down. Far East, India, South Africa facing increasing Covid-19 cases. 2 nd lockdown in Victoria/Australia. Further trend uncertain.
Most trailer builders except in UK remain open but operate on reduced volumes or with partial short-time work. Recovery in order-intake visible.
North American trailer market also seems to have reached the bottom in June. Trailer builders are back in operations but still producing at low volumes. Further trend remains uncertain.
Chinese trailer market also recovered from shutdown with improved volumes. Future trend for other countries in the region uncertain (see above).
Agricultural OEMs almost back to normal production levels. Demand for H2 seems to be stabilizing and could be back to previous' years levels in some European countries.
Agricultural OEMs back in production. Market demand for high HP tractors has slowed down some, while demand for low HP tractors is recovering swiftly.
Ålö production plant in Ningbo, China, has been producing since March and is back to normal levels.
Q2 2020 strongly affected by spread of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe and the Americas. Strong Chinese market recovery and additional agricultural business partially offset this effect.
Ålö's strong business performance in Q2 supported sales and raised consolidated adj. EBIT margins. Ålö's profitability improved in line with expectations despite the pandemic. Integration processes advancing.
Aftermarket slowed down slightly in Q2 2020 but continued to have a positive impact on JOST's performance, proving its resilience in economic downturns.
JOST will use all instruments available to reduce the impact of the pandemic to its business. Costs and cash focus further enhanced. Positive results of introduced measures seen in Q2.
Currently, we are expecting an economic recovery from Q3 onward. Business in Europe has stabilized and shows signs of improvement. China adding stability to APA region. FY 2020 forecast will be announced on September 1st, 2020.
Further information
Earnings in Q2 2020 strongly affected by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe and North America but also in India, South Africa and Brazil. Transport industry suffered more than agricultural business.
1According to German stock exchange definition 100% of shares qualify as free float
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