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HelloFresh SE — Earnings Release 2022
Mar 7, 2023
206_ip_2023-03-07_8e673e3a-c75f-41f3-a770-622e3daa4dfb.pdf
Earnings Release
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Q4 & FY 2022 Results
March 7th, 2023
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by HelloFresh SE (the "Company" and, together with its subsidiaries, the "Group"). All material contained in this document and information presented is for information purposes only and must not be relied upon for any purpose, and does not purport to be a full or complete description of the Company or the Group. This document does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement or recommendation to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision or other transaction whatsoever. This document is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction. Persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.
No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made by the Company or any other Group company as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein, for any purpose whatsoever. No responsibility, obligation or liability is or will be accepted by the Company, any other Group company or any of their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents or advisers in relation to any written or oral information provided in this document or in connection with the document. All information in this document is subject to verification, correction, completion, updating and change without notice. Neither the Company, nor any other Group company undertake any obligation to provide the recipient with access to any additional information or to update this document or any information or to correct any inaccuracies in any such information.
A significant portion of the information contained in this document, including market data and trend information, is based on estimates or expectations of the Company, and there can be no assurance that these estimates or expectations are or will prove to be accurate. Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be interpreted as having been adopted or endorsed by the Company or any other person as being accurate. All statements in this document attributable to third party industry experts represent the Company's interpretation of data, research opinion or viewpoints published by such industry experts, and have not been reviewed by them. Each publication of such industry experts speaks as of its original publication date and not as of the date of this document.
This document contains forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the Company, the Group or the industry in which the Group operates. These statements may be identified by words such as "expectation", "belief', "estimate", "plan", "target" or "forecast" and similar expressions, or by their context. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding: strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans and potential for future growth; growth for products and services in new markets; industry trends; and the impact of regulatory initiatives. These statements are made on the basis of current knowledge and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause actual future results, performance or events to differ materially from those described in these statements, and neither the Company nor any other person accepts any responsibility for the accuracy of the opinions expressed in this document or the underlying assumptions. No obligation is assumed to update any forward-looking statements.
This document includes certain financial measures not presented in accordance with IFRS, including, but not limited to, AEBITDA. These financial measures are not measures of financial performance in accordance with IFRS and may exclude items that are significant in understanding and assessing the Company's financial results. Therefore, these measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to result for the period or other measures of profitability, liquidity or performance under IFRS. You should be aware that the Company's presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies, which may be defined and calculated differently. See the appendix for a reconciliation of certain of these non-IFRS measures to the most directly comparable IFRS measure.

Our Mission
We change the way people eat forever
Our Vision
The world's leading, fully integrated foods solution group

Extraordinary 3-year growth period behind us


1
We generated strong cash flow from operations… and re-invested the bulk of it back into the business

Q4 and FY Results 2022 | 5 2020 2021 2022 Strong balance sheet and capital discipline preserved

Our customers are happier than ever...


1
2
Source: Company Data (Group excl. Youfoodz and GoodChop)
We have built a unique D2C operator in the largest consumer category with impenetrable competitive moats


2022 Highlights

We delivered 1bn meals in 2022
- Increase in number of meals driven by higher AOR YoY and resilient customer ordering behavior
- Order rates stabilized ahead of pre-Covid levels at 4.12 in Q4
- Q4 customers at 7.1m, a 1.5% decrease YoY versus Covid impacted period
- Intl +1.1% (incl. YouFoodz)
- US -4.3%, driven by spillover effects from previous quarter and optimization of marketing spend


Existing customer behavior remained relatively isolated from macro environment
Lifetime in # Orders of 10-wk Cohorts1
(by acquisition week)
Group Cancellation Rate
(% of weekly active customers)

Source: Company Data (Group excl. Youfoodz and GoodChop)
1 Average of total orders per new customer over a 10 week period since acquisition Q4 and FY Results 2022 | 10 2019 2021 2022
We continued to successfully expand AOV throughout the year
- constant currency
- Positive contribution from all AOV drivers:
- more meals per order
- higher take-up of HF Market and surcharge offerings
- higher price points
- Especially strong contribution by US segment, further supported by Factor strength


We delivered strong constant revenue growth of 18% for the full year to €7.6bn
- Continued healthy revenue growth across both segments in Q4
- Q4 US CC growth of +15.1%, including Factor contribution
- Q4 Intl CC growth of +6.1%


We managed to keep procurement expenses as % of revenue broadly stable for the year, despite record ingredient inflation
- Successfully mitigated meaningful ingredient price inflation without impacting product quality
- In addition, absorbed rapid rollout of Factor, HF Market and more surcharge offerings, which typically have higher COGS (and lower relative fulfilment expenses)


We improved fulfilment expenses as % of revenue, despite inflation in labor costs and last-mile
- Against meaningful inflationary headwind and continued capacity ramp-up, efficiency savings realized, especially in production
- Increasing momentum throughout the year
- US segment strongly contributing to performance
(41.7)% (39.1)% Q4 Fulfilment Costs (% of net revenue) 2.6pp (40.9)% (40.4)% 0.5pp FY Fulfilment Costs (% of net revenue) Q4 2021 Q4 2022 2021 2022

We expanded contribution margin for the year to 25.5%1and more forcefully in Q4
- Improvement in Q4 contribution margin primarily driven by fulfilment efficiencies
- Further efficiencies targeted for 2023, primarily driven by additional production productivity gains


Marketing spend remains above prior year at 16.8%1 of revenue
- Marketing spend grew in Q4 on a relative basis, particularly in the US
- Given successful expansion in AOV and contribution margin, we continue to deliver a strong ROI on our growth marketing spend


We delivered Q4 AEBITDA of €160.1m for a full year AEBITDA of €477.4m
- Meaningful YoY increase of both absolute AEBITDA and AEBITDA margin in Q4 as contribution margin expansion more than offsets relative increase in marketing expenses
- Strong US segment margin of 11.7% in Q4, as RTE turns profitable and we deliver fulfilment efficiencies
- Intl 8.6% margin in Q4, with younger businesses growing their contribution to the mix


Even in our peak capex year, we maintained a strong liquidity position while additionally returning €125m to shareholders
- Strong cash flow from operations of €313.4m
- Capex in 2022 represents peak, as it includes:
- substantial investments in RTE capacity build out in the US, Australia and Canada
- necessary investments within existing meal kit markets to catch-up with prior years' strong growth and to increase efficiency and automation
- build out of capacity in newer markets (E.g. France, Nordics)
- FCF (cash flow from operations minus capex) at €(104.0)m. Expected to be positive from H2 2023 again, as cash flow from operations increases and capex reduces YoY
- €125m returned to shareholders
- Cash maintained above €500m at year end without tapping into external financing sources
- In addition access to €400m RCF, which remains substantially unutilized

For the FY 2023 we are targeting continued revenue and AEBITDA growth

expenses

For H2, we are targeting a step-up in revenue growth, a year-on-year expansion in AEBITDA margin and a return to positive FCF


Capex has peaked in 2022 and is expected to gradually decrease towards c.2.5% of revenue by 2025

Capex (incl. Intangibles)
- 2022 peak capex year
- However, below initial guidance, as we reviewed certain projects in light of current macro environment
- 2023 below 2022 level, primarily finalization of key ongoing projects
- Will allow further ramp of RTE in H2
- Will allow further network optimization in meal kits by retiring less efficient sites
- Cash outflow weighted towards H1
- 2024 onwards
- Selected optimization projects, automation, RTE Europe

Group: Operational and Financial KPIs

1.Revenue post promotional discounts, customer credits, refunds and excluding VAT; YoY stands for year on year and compares the respective quarter with the same quarter of the previous year 2.Contribution margin is defined as revenue less cost of goods sold and fulfilment expenses, excluding share-based compensation expenses 3.AEBITDA is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for special items and share-based compensation expenses; AEBITDA margin is defined as % of revenue 4.Based on constant currency
USA: Operational and Financial KPIs

1.Revenue post promotional discounts, customer credits, refunds and excluding VAT; YoY stands for year on year and compares the respective quarter with the same quarter of the previous year 2.Contribution margin is defined as revenue less cost of goods sold and fulfilment expenses, excluding share-based compensation expenses 3.AEBITDA is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for special items and share-based compensation expenses; AEBITDA margin is defined as % of revenue 4.Based on constant currency
International: Operational and Financial KPIs

1.Revenue post promotional discounts, customer credits, refunds and excluding VAT; YoY stands for year on year and compares the respective quarter with the same quarter of the previous year 2.Contribution margin is defined as revenue less cost of goods sold and fulfilment expenses, excluding share-based compensation expenses 3.AEBITDA is calculated by adjusting EBITDA for special items and share-based compensation expenses; AEBITDA margin is defined as % of revenue 4.Based on constant currency
Profit and Loss Statement
| 3 months ended | Change % | 12 months ended | Change % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Dec-22 | 31-Dec-21 | YoY | 31-Dec-22 | 31-Dec-21 | YoY | |
| Revenue | 1,874.5 | 1,580.1 | 18.6% | 7,607.2 | 5,993.4 | 26.9% |
| Procurement Expense | (642.1) | (536.7) | 19.6% | (2,620.3) | (2,046.4) | 28.0% |
| Fulfilment Expense | (733.2) | (658.3) | 11.4% | (3,070.7) | (2,448.7) | 25.4% |
| Contribution Margin | 499.2 | 385.2 | 29.6% | 1,916.2 | 1,498.3 | 27.9% |
| % of Revenue | 26.9% | 24.7% | 2.2pp | 25.5% | 25.3% | 0.2pp |
| Marketing Expense | (303.6) | (220.7) | 37.6% | (1,284.2) | (861.6) | 49.0% |
| G&A | (93.6) | (71.5) | 30.9% | (366.5) | (233.6) | 56.9% |
| Other Operating Income (Expenses) | (16.4) | (7.4) | 121.3% | (48.1) | (24.6) | 95.3% |
| EBIT | 85.6 | 85.5 | 0.1% | 217.4 | 378.5 | (42.6)% |
| % of Revenue | 4.6% | 5.4% | (0.8)pp | 2.9% | 6.3% | (3.4)pp |
| Financial Result | (47.1) | 0.8 | (5990.7)% | (17.3) | (7.8) | 122.3% |
| EBT | 38.5 | 86.3 | (55.4)% | 200.0 | 370.7 | (46.0)% |
| Income Tax (Expense) / Benefit | (5.0) | (38.5) | (87.1)% | (74.9) | (127.7) | (41.4)% |
| Net Income / (Loss) | 33.5 | 47.8 | (29.9)% | 125.1 | 243.0 | (48.5)% |
| Reconciliation starting at EBIT | ||||||
| EBIT | 85.6 | 85.5 | 0.2% | 217.4 | 378.5 | (42.6)% |
| D&A | 52.7 | 30.9 | 70.6% | 165.8 | 96.8 | 71.3% |
| EBITDA | 138.3 | 116.3 | 18.9% | 383.2 | 475.3 | (19.4)% |
| % of Revenue | 7.4% | 7.4% | 0.0pp | 5.0% | 7.9% | (2.9)pp |
| SBC | (1.2) | 8.9 | (113.5)% | 55.5 | 38.9 | 42.7% |
| Special Items | 23.0 | 5.6 | 310.7% | 38.7 | 13.4 | 188.8% |
| AEBITDA | 160.1 | 130.8 | 22.4% | 477.4 | 527.6 | (9.5)% |
| % of Revenue | 8.5% | 8.3% | 0.2pp | 6.3% | 8.8% | (2.5)pp |
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement
| In MEUR | As at 31-Dec-22 | As at 31-Dec-21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | |||
| Non-current assets | 1,623.0 | 1,054.4 | |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 504.0 | 827.1 | |
| Other current assets | 408.2 | 326.0 | |
| Total assets | 2,535.2 | 2,207.5 | |
| Equity and liabilities | |||
| Equity | 959.6 | 899.7 | |
| Non-current liabilities | 605.1 | 482.5 | |
| Current liabilities | 970.5 | 825.3 | |
| Total equity and liabilites | 2,535.2 | 2,207.5 |
| In MEUR | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period | 827.1 | 729.0 |
| Net Cash flows from operating activities | 313.4 | 458.6 |
| Net Cash flows from investing activities | (443.8) | (321.6) |
| of which M&A | (25.6) | (73.6) |
| Net Cash flows from financing activities | (204.3) | (62.7) |
| Effects of exchange rate changes and other changes on cash and cash equivalents | 11.5 | 23.8 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period | 504.0 | 827.1 |

Share Count
As of December 31, 2022
| Types of share | Ordinary shares |
|---|---|
| Stock exchange | Frankfurt Stock Exchange |
| Market Segment | Regulated Market (Prime Standard) |
| Number of shares issued | 171,928,379 |
| Number of shares outstanding | 171,694,425 |
| Employee incentive plan | Options | RSU | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vested (in mn) | 7.95 | 0.09 | 8.04 |
| Unvested (in mn) | 2.64 | 1.30 | 3.94 |
| Total (in mn) | 10.59 | 1.39 | 11.98 |
| WAEP1 (in EUR) Vested |
15.12 | 0.00 | 14.94 |
| WAEP1 (in EUR) Unvested |
46.51 | 0.00 | 31.19 |
| WAEP1 (in EUR) |
22.94 | 0.00 | 20.28 |
