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Hapag-Lloyd AG — Investor Presentation 2018
Aug 10, 2018
199_ip_2018-08-10_3da8df7f-a44a-4c07-be6a-947ac5fdf34c.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Investor Presentation H1 2018 Results Hamburg, 10 August 2018
Opening Remarks
| 01 Highlights |
Positive EBIT of USD 107 m in tough market environment UASC synergies on track |
|---|---|
| 02 Sector Update |
Stable demand despite rising geopolitical risks Sector fundamentals remain favourable in the midterm |
| 03 Financials |
Positive EBITDA of USD 515 m in H1 2018 (USD 397 m in H1 2017) Good operating cash flow of USD 498 m (USD 332 m in H1 2017) |
| 04 Way Forward |
Continue to deliver on synergies and improve profitability Finalize our new strategy after 3 years of successful acquisition and integration |
1 Highlights
Financial Highlights H1 2018: Half-year results driven by challenging market environment
| Transport volume | Transport expenses per TEU |
Freight rate |
|---|---|---|
| +38.5% | -2.2% | -4.2% |
| H1 2018: TEU 5.8 m |
H1 2018: 934 USD/TEU | H1 2018: 1,020 USD/TEU |
| EBIT | EBITDA | Group loss |
| USD 107 m | USD 515 m | USD 122 m |
| 1.6% EBIT margin | 7.8% EBITDA margin | 1.3% ROIC |
| Equity | Liquidity reserve | Net debt |
| USD 7.2 bn | USD 1.2 bn |
USD 6.5 bn |
1 Highlights
Total synergies of USD 435 m p.a. from 2019 onwards confirmed – Synergy realisation going as planned
Synergy potential
- Up to 90% of full run rate expected to be realized in 2018
- Visibility of synergies in P&L in H1 2018 is limited due to counter effects in other cost items
Container shipping growth on a healthy and normalized level driven by a solid global economic growth…
Global Container Volume Growth & Real GDP Growth [%]
100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Real GDP Container Volume Growth 1.9x 1.0x GDP multiplier 2000 = Indexed to 100 1.3x 4.9% 5.4% 5.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8%
5
…but geopolitical risk rises mainly due to conflicts between major economic players
Volume Development of Main Trade Lanes
[mTEU in 2018e; in brackets: ø growth rate1) 2018e – 2023e]
Atlantic Trade:
6
- US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum less than 3% of total container trade from EU to US is affected2)
- Retaliatory tariffs from the EU less than 6% of total container trade from US to EU is affected2)
- Ongoing negotiations, first agreements have been made between Trump and Juncker
Transpacific Trade:
- US imposed tariffs on USD 50 bn of Chinese products up to 13% of total container trade from CN to US is affected2)
- Retaliatory tariffs from China worth the same amount up to 48% of total container trade from US to CN is affected2)
Still under review: US import tariffs on Chinese products worth USD 200 bn and possible retaliation of China
Around 2% of total world container trade (TEU 148m in 2018e) currently affected by tariffs – going forward remains to be seen
1) according to 8-digit HTSUS codes 2) Source: PIERS market data with 4-digit HS codes + internal data; Status: 9 August 2018 Note: All numbers are based on estimates. Tangible effetcs cannot exactly be calculated at this point in time.
Supply: Orderbook remains relatively low with new orders on a reasonable level and very low idle fleet
Orderbook-to-fleet Orders placed
[TEU m, %] [TEU m]
7
Share of world fleet Idle Fleet [TTEU] 1.6% YTD 2018 2018 0.5 2017 0.8 2016 0.2 2015 2.2 2014 1.1 2013 2.0 2012 0.4 2011 1.8 2010 0.6 2009 0.1 2008 1.2 2007 3.2 YTD 2018 779 809 356 341 Q4 Q4 1,420 Q4 1,359 Q4 228 Q4 Q4 Q4 595 Q4 Q4 1,480
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2017
Even though, short term supply pressure will most likely persist, mid-term supply/demand balance further improving
Net Capacity Growth 2018e
[in % of worldfleet]
- Drewry has revised its forecast for net capacity growth in 2018. Market analysts now expects scrapping at a much lower rate (from 1.8% to 0.5% of the current world fleet). Slippage remained unchanged.
- For 2020E, up to TEU 1 m out of TEU 1.5 m scheduled deliveries are not yet reflected in the current order book of TEU 2.3 m. To be delivered in 2020, vessels will have to be ordered in the beginning of H2 2018.
Supply / Demand Balance
9
Operational costs peaked in Q2, while freight rate development is rather flat
10
Positive EBITDA of USD 515 m in the first six months of 2018
Operational KPIs
| Q2 2018 | Q2 2017 | YoY | H1 2018 | H1 2017 | YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport volume [TTEU] |
2,987 | 2,287 | +31% | 5,848 | 4,221 | +39% |
| rate1) Freight [USD/TEU] |
1,010 | 1,072 | -6% | 1,020 | 1,065 | -4% |
| Bunker [USD/mt] | 399 | 312 | +28% | 385 | 312 | +23% |
| Exchange rate [USD/EUR] | 1.19 | 1.10 | n.m. | 1.21 | 1.08 | n.m. |
| Revenue [USD m] | 3,352 | 2,629 | +27% | 6,569 | 4,900 | +34% |
| EBITDA2) [USD m] |
245 | 253 | -3% | 515 | 397 | +30% |
| EBITDA margin2) | 7.3% | 9.6% | -2.3ppt | 7.8% | 8.1% | -0.3ppt |
| EBIT2) [USD m] |
41 | 92 | -55% | 107 | 100 | +7% |
| EBIT margin2) | 1.2% | 3.5% | -2.3ppt | 1.6% | 2.0% | -0.4ppt |
| Group profit2) [USD m] |
-80 | 17 | n.m. | -122 | -45 | n.m. |
Note: UASC's Ltd. and its subsidiaries have been included in the figures from the date control was transferred on 24 May 2017. The key figures used are therefore only comparable with the previous year to a limited extent. USD figures as stated in the Investor Report H1 2018 1) For 2018, local revenues were included in the calculation of freight rates. Previous year's figures adjusted accordingly. 2) Due to retrospective application of the provisions for designated options, previous year's figures have been adjusted.
Solid transport volume growth of 38.5% YoY due to UASC merger – Pro-forma transport volume grew by 3.9%YoY
Transport volume [TEU m]
On a Pro-Forma basis rates have increased by 3.0% YoY, Reported rates were down by 4.2% YoY
Freight rate [USD/TEU] vs. Bunker price development [USD/mt]
1) Assuming UASC Group has been included since 1 January 2016 Note: Due to the inclusion of UASC in the Hapag-Lloyd Group from the first-time consolidation date of 24 May 2017, figures provided can only be compared with those of the previous year to a limited extent. The figures for the first quarter of 2017 relate to Hapag-Lloyd only and do not include the UASC Group. For the financial year 2018, local revenues were included in the calculation of freight rates. The previous year's figures have been adjusted accordingly.
13
Higher expenses for raw materials and supplies were offset by costcutting programmes and synergies from the UASC integration
Transport expenses per TEU [USD/TEU]
Note: UASC's Ltd. and its subsidiaries have been included in the figures from the date control was transferred on 24 May 2017. The key figures used are therefore only comparable with the previous year to a limited extent. Rounding differences may occur. 1) Cost of purchased services H1 2018: 777 USD/TEU 2) Mainly explained by currency effects predominantly booked in other
14
Good free cash flow of USD 443 m in H1 2018 driven by a solid operating result (EBITDA) and limited investment needs
Cash flow H1 2018 [USD m]
Note: USD figures as stated in Investor Report H1 2018. Rounding differences may occur.
15
Stable equity base of USD 7.2 bn, solid liquidity reserve of USD 1.2 bn and further reduced financial debt in H1 2018
Equity base [USDm] Net debt [USDm]
Further reduction of USD 414 m in financial debt since year-end 2017
Note: UASC's Ltd. and its subsidiaries have been included in the figures from the date control was transferred on 24 May 2017. The key figures used are therefore only comparable with the previous year to a limited extent.
643 725
Cash
30 June 2018 31 December 2017
Revised Outlook for 2018
| FY 2017 | Outlook for 2018 |
Revised Outlook 2018 |
Sensitivities | for 2018 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport volume | 9,803 TTEU | Increasing clearly |
Increasing clearly |
+/- 100 TTEU |
+/- USD <0.1 bn |
| Average freight rate | 1,051 USD/TEU |
On previous year's level |
On previous year's level |
+/- 40 USD/TEU |
+/- USD ~0.5 bn |
| Average bunker price |
318 USD/mt | Increasing clearly |
Increasing clearly |
+/- 50 USD/mt |
+/- USD ~0.2 bn |
| EBITDA | EUR 1,055 m | Increasing clearly |
EUR 900 m to EUR 1,150 m |
||
| EBIT | EUR 411 m | Increasing clearly |
EUR 200 m to EUR 450 m |
4 Way Forward
Major targets for H2 and beyond:
Continue to deliver on synergies and deleverage the company over time
Develop and offer more digitalized solutions to the customer
Successful overcome regulatory changes, such as the IMO regulations
Finalization of our new strategy, after 3 years of successful acquisition & integration
A Appendix
Hapag-Lloyd with equity ratio of 41%
| 30.06.2018 | 31.12.2017 | |
|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||
| Non-current assets | 14,818.4 | 15,146.1 |
| of which fixed assets | 14,756.4 | 15,071.1 |
| Current assets | 2,640.6 | 2,630.8 |
| of which cash and cash equivalents | 643.0 | 725.2 |
| Total assets | 17459.0 | 17,776.9 |
| Equity and liabilities | ||
| Equity | 7,155.0 | 7,263.3 |
| Borrowed capital | 10,304.0 | 10,513.6 |
| of which non-current liabilities |
6,678.3 | 7,197.8 |
| of which current liabilities | 3,625.7 | 3,315.8 |
| of whih financial debt |
7,182.2 | 7,595.5 |
| thereof Non-current financial debt |
6,260.6 | 6,750.6 |
| Current financial debt | 921.6 | 844.9 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 17,459.0 | 17,776.9 |
Balance sheet [USD m] Financial position [USD m]
| 30.06.2018 | 31.12.2017 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 643.0 | 725.2 |
| Financial debt | 7,182.2 | 7,595.5 |
| Restricted Cash | 46.9 | 58.6 |
| Net debt | 6,492.3 | 6,811.7 |
| Unused credit lines | 520.0 | 545.0 |
| Liquidity reserve | 1,163.0 | 1270.2 |
| Equity | 7,155.0 | 7,263.3 |
| Gearing (net debt / equity) (%) |
90.7% | 93.8% |
| Equity ratio (%) | 41.0% | 40.9% |
Hapag-Lloyd with positive EBITDA of USD 514.9 m
| H1 2018 | H1 2017 | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,568.7 | 4,899.7 | 34% |
| Other operating income | 55.9 | 114.3 | -51% |
| Transport expenses | -5,463.3 | -4,031.6 | 36% |
| Personnel expenses | -389.8 | -373.3 | 4% |
| Depreciation, amortization & impairment | -407.5 | -296.6 | 37% |
| Other operating expenses | -275.3 | -232.2 | 19% |
| Operating result | 88.7 | 80.3 | 10% |
| Share of profit of equity-acc. investees |
18.7 | 19.9 | -6% |
| Other financial result | 0.0 | 0.2 | n.m. |
| Earnings before interest & tax (EBIT) |
107.4 | 100.4 | 7% |
| EBITDA | 514.9 | 397.0 | 30% |
| Interest result | -209.1 | -132.0 | 58% |
| Income taxes | -20.6 | -13.0 | 58% |
| Group profit / loss | -122.3 | -44.6 | 174% |
Income statement [USD m] Transport expenses [USD m]
| H1 2018 | H1 2017 | % change |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expenses for raw materials & supplies |
918.0 | 583.3 | 57% | ||
| Cost of purchased services | 4,545.3 | 3,448.3 | 32% | ||
| Thereof Port, canal & terminal costs |
2,397.4 | 1,662.2 | 44% | ||
| Chartering leases and container rentals |
597.0 | 496.4 | 20% | ||
| Container transport costs |
1,453.9 | 1,155.1 | 26% | ||
| Maintenance/ repair/ other | 97.0 | 134.6 | -28% | ||
| Transport expenses |
5,463.3 | 4,031.6 | 36% | ||
| Transport expenses per TEU [USD m] | |||||
| H1 2018 | H1 2017 | % change | |||
| Expenses for raw materials & supplies |
157.0 | 138.2 | 14% | ||
| Cost of purchased services | 777.3 | 816.9 | -5% | ||
| Thereof Port, canal & terminal costs |
410.0 | 393.8 | 4% | ||
| Chartering leases and container rentals |
102.1 | 117.6 | -13% | ||
| Container transport costs |
248.6 | 273.6 | -9% | ||
| Maintenance/ repair/ other | 16.6 | 31.9 | -48% | ||
| Transport expenses |
934.3 | 955.1 | -2% |
20 Note: The previous year's figures have been adjusted due to the retrospective application of the rules for designation of option contracts. This improved the previous year's transport expenses by USD 3.9 million.
H1 2018 generated one-off costs of USD 4 m related to the merger
Transaction & integration related one-off costs [USD m]
A Appendix
Hapag-Lloyd benefits from optimized bunker consumption, but substantial increase in bunker price harms P&L
Bunker consumption price [USD/mt] Bunker consumption & expenses
A Appendix
Solid long-term and diversified financing portfolio
Financial debt profile [USD m]
1) As of January 2018 financial debt profile has been changed to the statement of repayment amounts. Deviation from the total financial debt as shown in the balance sheet as per 30.06.2018 consist of transaction costs and accrued interest in the amount of USD 90.9 million 2) ABS programme prolongated until 2020
Financial Calendar 2018
| February 28th, 2018 |
Preliminary Financials 2017 |
|
|---|---|---|
| March 28th, 2018 |
Annual Report 2017 |
|
| May 14th, 2018 |
Quarterly Financial Report Q1 2018 |
|
| July 10th, 2018 |
Annual General Meeting 2018 | |
| August 10th, 2018 |
Halfyear Financial Report 2018 |
|
| November 8th, 2018 |
Quarterly Financial Report 9M 2018 |
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Such statements are based on a number of assumptions, estimates, projections or plans that are inherently subject to significant risks, as well as uncertainties and contingencies that are subject to change. Actual results can differ materially from those anticipated in the Company's forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, including those set forth from time to time in the Company's press releases and reports and those set forth from time to time in the Company's analyst calls and discussions. We do not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.
This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or offer to buy any securities of the Company, and no part of this presentation shall form the basis of or may be relied upon in connection with any offer or commitment whatsoever. This presentation is being presented solely for your information and is subject to change without notice.
UASC's Ltd. and its subsidiaries have been included in the figures from the date control was transferred on 24 May 2017.The key figures used are therefore only comparable with the previous year to a limited extent.
Hapag-Lloyd Investor Relations
Ballindamm 25 20095 Hamburg Tel: +49(40) 3001-2896 [email protected] https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/ir.html