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Hapag-Lloyd AG — Investor Presentation 2018
Nov 8, 2018
199_ip_2018-11-08_5d81736f-d2f0-44f6-96b5-eafbd34861ce.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Investor Presentation 9M 2018 Result Presentation
Hamburg, 8 November 2018
Opening Remarks
| 01 Highlights |
Positive EBIT of USD 359 m in 9M 2018 in a tough market environment Introduction of a new and transparent Marine Fuel Recovery Mechanism in light of IMO 2020 |
|---|---|
| 02 Sector Update |
Stable demand despite rising geopolitical risks Sector fundamentals remain favourable in the mid-term |
| 03 Financials |
EBITDA of USD 972 m in 9M 2018 (USD 809 m in 9M 2017) Good operating cash flow of USD 872 m (USD 751 m in 9M 2017) |
| 04 Way Forward |
Continue to deliver on synergies, improve profitability and deleverage over time Presentation of our strategy at the Capital Markets Day on 21 November 2018 |
Financial Highlights 9M 2018
| Transport volume | Transport expenses per TEU |
Freight rate |
|---|---|---|
| +26.6% | -1.3% | -3.4% |
| 9M 2018: TEU 8.9 m |
9M 2018: 926 USD/TEU | 9M 2018: 1,032 USD/TEU |
| EBIT | EBITDA | Group profit |
| USD 359 m | USD 972 m | USD 15 m |
| 3.6% EBIT margin | 9.7% EBITDA margin | 3.2% ROIC |
| Equity | Liquidity reserve | Net debt |
| USD 7.2 bn | USD 1.2 bn |
USD 6.5 bn |
1 Highlights
Total synergies of USD 435 m p.a. from 2019 onwards confirmed – synergy realisation going as planned
Synergy potential
- Approximately 90% of full run rate expected to be realized in 2018
- Visibility of synergies in P&L in 9M 2018 is limited due to counter effects in other cost items
1 Highlights
We have publicly launched our new Web Channel, Quick Quotes, in August
24/7 access to the Quick Quotes tool whenever and wherever
Reception of rate in immediate response
Quotation with just a few clicks
Access for all customers regardless of size or location Start of booking process follows directly
Flexible access to Hapag-Lloyds extensive global network
1 Highlights
Hapag-Lloyd is introducing a Marine Fuel Recovery mechanism
Hapag-Lloyd is simplifying its rate structure and will replace all existing fuel charges with a new Marine Fuel Recovery (MFR) mechanism
- Marine Fuel Recovery Mechanism will be gradually implemented from 1 January 2019
- It is causal, transparent and easy-to-understand
- It helps our customers predict and plan the price increases for their trade routes
- The MFR aiming at recovering costs arising from stricter sulphur regulation (IMO 2020)
- The calculation is based on average market data
2 Sector Update
Container shipping volume expected to grow on a healthy level of 4% to 5% between 2018E and 2020E, but geopolitical risks rise
7
2 Sector Update
Despite recent new orders, the orderbook remains on a historical low, idle fleet increased recently but is still on a low level
2009
2010
2011
2012
[TEU m, %]
8
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2 Sector Update
Very low scrapping pushes supply in 2018E, but mid-term supply/demand balance is further improving
Comments
- Drewry has revised its forecast for net capacity growth in 2018 again. Market analysts now expects scrapping at a rate of 0.3% of the current world fleet. Slippage remained unchanged.
- For 2020e, up to TEU 0.8 m out of TEU 1.7 m scheduled deliveries are not yet reflected in the current order book of TEU 2.4 m. To be delivered in 2020, vessels will have to be ordered in Q4 2018 or beginning of Q1 2019 latest in order to arrive at Drewry delivery estimates.
Scrapping
9
Supply / Demand Balance
Source: Drewry (Forecaster 3Q18), IHS (October 2018), Transmodal (October 2018) 1) Slippage to following year has been subtracted from scheduled deliveries 2) Estimation; not yet reflected in global orderbook
10
Positive EBITDA of USD 972 m in the first nine months of 2018
Operational KPIs
| Q3 2018 | Q3 2017 | YoY | 9M 2018 | 9M 2017 | YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport volume [TTEU] | 3,052 | 2,807 | +9% | 8,900 | 7,029 | +27% |
| Freight rate1) [USD/TEU] |
1,055 | 1,073 | -2% | 1,032 | 1,068 | -3% |
| Bunker [USD/mt] | 446 | 308 | +45% | 406 | 311 | +31% |
| Exchange rate [USD/EUR] | 1.16 | 1.17 | n.m. | 1.19 | 1.11 | n.m. |
| Revenue [USD m] | 3,542 | 3,268 | +7% | 10,072 | 8,168 | +23% |
| EBITDA2) [USD m] |
457 | 412 | +11% | 972 | 809 | +20% |
| EBITDA margin2) | 12.9% | 12.6% | +0.3ppt | 9.7% | 9.9% | -0.2ppt |
| EBIT2) [USD m] |
252 | 200 | +26% | 359 | 300 | +20% |
| EBIT margin2) | 7.1% | 6.1% | +1.0ppt | 3.6% | 3.7% | -0.1ppt |
| Group profit2) [USD m] |
137 | 53 | +157% | 15 | 9 | +69% |
Note: UASC's Ltd. and its subsidiaries have been included in the figures from the date control was transferred on 24 May 2017. The key figures used are therefore only comparable with the previous year to a limited extent. USD figures as stated in the Investor Report 9M 2018 1) For 2018, local revenues were included in the calculation of freight rates. Previous year's figures adjusted accordingly. 2) Due to retrospective application of the provisions for designated options, previous year's figures have been adjusted.
EBIT positively affected by an extraordinary income of USD 15 m
Comments
- Gain from the measurement of an investment at fair value as at 30 September 2018 led to an increase in EBITDA and EBIT of USD 15 m
- This measurement had a positive effect of USD 12 m on the other financial result
- Furthermore, an increase of USD 3 m was recognized in other operating income due to a release of provision related to the minority stake
12
Continuously good transport volume growth of 26.6% YoY due to UASC merger – pro-forma transport volume grew by 5.5% YoY
13
On a pro-forma basis freight rates have increased by 1.4% YoY, average bunker consumption price increased sharply by 30.5% YoY
Freight rate [USD/TEU] vs. Bunker price development [USD/mt]
Note: Due to the inclusion of UASC in the Hapag-Lloyd Group from the first-time consolidation date of 24 May 2017, figures provided can only be compared with those of the previous year to a limited extent. The figures for the first quarter of 2017 relate to Hapag-Lloyd only and do not include the UASC Group. For the financial year 2018, local revenues were included in the calculation of freight rates. The previous year's figures have been adjusted accordingly. 1) Assuming UASC Group has been included since 1 January 2016
14
Higher expenses for raw materials and supplies were offset by costcutting programs and synergies from the UASC integration
Transport expenses per TEU [USD/TEU]1)
Note: UASC's Ltd. and its subsidiaries have been included in the figures from the date control was transferred on 24 May 2017. The key figures used are therefore only comparable with the previous year to a limited extent. Rounding differences may occur. 1) Cost of purchased services 9M 2018: 766 USD/TEU 2) Mainly explained by currency effects
Good free cash flow of USD 650 m in 9M 2018 driven by a high cash conversion and limited investment needs
Cash flow 9M 2018 [USD m]
Unused credit lines Cash and cash equivalents
16
Stable equity base of USD 7.2 bn, solid liquidity reserve of USD 1.2 bn and reduced net debt of USD 6.5 bn
Equity base [USDm] Net debt [USDm]
- Equity ratio almost unchanged at 41.0% and equity of USD 7.2 bn
- Liquidity reserve totals USD 1.2 bn as at 30 September 2018
- Reduction of USD 323 m in financial debt since year-end 2017
- Gearing (net debt / equity) of 91.1% (31 December 2017: 93.8%)
4 Way Forward
Revised Outlook for 2018 confirmed and refined
| FY 2017 | Initial Outlook 2018 |
Revised Outlook 2018 |
Sensitivities for 2018 1) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport volume | 9,803 TTEU | Increasing clearly |
Increasing clearly |
+/- 100 TTEU |
+/- USD <0.1 bn |
| Average freight rate | 1,051 USD/TEU |
On previous year's level |
On previous year's level |
+/- 40 USD/TEU |
+/- USD ~0.5 bn |
| Average bunker price |
318 USD/mt | Increasing clearly |
Increasing clearly |
+/- 50 USD/mt |
+/- USD ~0.2 bn |
| EBITDA | EUR 1,055 m | Increasing clearly |
EUR 900 m to EUR 1,150 m |
Rather in the upper part | |
| EBIT | EUR 411 m | Increasing clearly |
EUR 200 m to EUR 450 m |
of the guided ranges |
Major targets:
Continue to deliver on synergies and deleverage the company over time
Continue to develop more digitalized solutions for the customer
Successfully implement the MFR mechanism
Presentation of our new strategy at the Capital Markets Day on 21 November
Hapag-Lloyd with positive EBITDA of USD 972 m in 9M 2018
| 9M 2018 | 9M 2017 | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,071.5 | 8,167.7 | 23% |
| Other operating income | 84.0 | 143.4 | -41% |
| Transport expenses | -8,245.3 | -6,596.4 | 25% |
| Personnel expenses | -571.1 | -577.5 | -1% |
| Depreciation, amortization & impairment | -612.9 | -509.1 | 20% |
| Other operating expenses | -405.8 | -363.0 | 12% |
| Operating result | 320.4 | 265.1 | 21% |
| Share of profit of equity-acc. investees |
26.7 | 34.4 | -22% |
| Other financial result | 12.3 | 0.5 | n.m. |
| Earnings before interest & tax (EBIT) |
359.4 | 300.0 | 20% |
| EBITDA | 972.3 | 809.1 | 20% |
| Interest result | -310.7 | -271.2 | 15% |
| Income taxes | -33.8 | -20.0 | 69% |
| Group profit / loss | 14.9 | 8.8 | 69% |
Income statement [USD m] Transport expenses [USD m]
| 9M 2018 | 9M 2017 | % change |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expenses for raw materials & supplies |
1428.6 | 947.7 | 51% | |
| Cost of purchased services | 6,816.7 | 5,648.7 | 21% | |
| Thereof Port, canal & terminal costs |
3,573.8 | 2,761.9 | 29% | |
| Chartering leases and container rentals |
872.1 | 805.2 | 8% | |
| Container transport costs |
2,209.4 | 1,857.7 | 19% | |
| Maintenance/ repair/ other | 161.4 | 223.9 | -28% | |
| Transport expenses |
8,245.3 | 6,596.4 | 25% | |
| Transport expenses per TEU [USD m] | ||||
| 9M 2018 | 9M 2017 | % change | ||
| Expenses for raw materials & supplies |
160.5 | 134.8 | 16% | |
| Cost of purchased services | 765.9 | 803.7 | -5% | |
| Thereof Port, canal & terminal costs |
401.5 | 392.9 | 2% | |
| Chartering leases and container rentals |
98.0 | 114.6 | -14% | |
| Container transport costs |
248.2 | 264.3 | -6% | |
| Maintenance/ repair/ other | 18.1 | 31.9 | -43% |
20 Note: The previous year's figures have been adjusted due to the retrospective application of the rules for designation of option contracts. This improved the previous year's transport expenses by USD 1.1 million.
Hapag-Lloyd with a stable equity ratio of 41% and a reduced gearing of 91%
| 30.09.2018 | 31.12.2017 | |
|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||
| Non-current assets | 14,775.6 | 15,146.1 |
| of which fixed assets | 14,689.7 | 15,071.1 |
| Current assets | 2,711.8 | 2,630.8 |
| of which cash and cash equivalents | 694.4 | 725.2 |
| Total assets | 17,487.4 | 17,776.9 |
| Equity and liabilities | ||
| Equity | 7,171.3 | 7,263.3 |
| Borrowed capital | 10,316.1 | 10,513.6 |
| of which non-current liabilities |
6,724.2 | 7,197.8 |
| of which current liabilities | 3,591.9 | 3,315.8 |
| of which financial debt |
7,272.1 | 7,595.5 |
| thereof Non-current financial debt |
6,310.0 | 6,750.6 |
| Current financial debt Total equity and liabilities |
962.1 17,487.4 |
844.9 17,776.9 |
Balance sheet [USD m] Financial position [USD m]
| 30.09.2018 | 31.12.2017 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 694.4 | 725.2 |
| Financial debt | 7,272.1 | 7,595.5 |
| Restricted Cash | 42.6 | 58.6 |
| Net debt | 6,535.1 | 6,811.7 |
| Unused credit lines | 470.0 | 545.0 |
| Liquidity reserve | 1,164.4 | 1,270.2 |
| Equity | 7,171.3 | 7,263.3 |
| Gearing (net debt / equity) (%) |
91.1% | 93.8% |
| Equity ratio (%) | 41.0% | 40.9% |
9M 2018 generated one-off costs of USD 5 m related to the merger
Transaction & integration related one-off costs [USD m]
Hapag-Lloyd benefits from optimized bunker consumption, but substantial increase in bunker price harms P&L
Bunker consumption price [USD/mt] Bunker consumption & expenses per TEU
Solid long-term and diversified financing portfolio
Appendix A
Geopolitical risk rises mainly due to conflicts between major economic players
Volume Development of Main Trade Lanes
Atlantic Trade:
- US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium less than 3% of total container trade from EU to US is affected2)
- Retaliatory tariffs from the EU less than 6% of total container trade from US to EU is affected2)
- Ongoing negotiations between US and EU
Transpacific Trade:
- US imposed tariffs on USD 250 bn of Chinese products1) up to 70% of total container trade from CN to US affected2)
- Retaliatory tariffs from China worth USD 110 bn up to 87% of total container trade from US to CN affected2)
- Negotiations are continuing between China and US
Currently around 7% of total world container trade (TEU 146m in 2018e) currently affected by tariffs – going forward remains to be seen
Freight rates are recovering slowly
Comprehensive Index (CCFI/SCFI)
Shanghai – USA (SCFI)
Shanghai – North Europe (SCFI)
Shanghai – Latin America (SCFI)
Convincing equity story resulted in higher share price…
Share trading
| Stock Exchange |
Frankfurt Stock Exchange / Hamburg Stock Exchange |
|---|---|
| Market segment / Index |
Regulated market (Prime Standard) / SDAX |
| ISIN / WKN | DE000HLAG475 / HLAG47 |
| Ticker Symbol | HLAG |
| Primary listing | 6 November 2015 |
| Number of shares | 175,760,293 |
…and lower bond yields
Preliminary Financial Calendar 2019
| February 2019 | Preliminary Financials 2018 |
|---|---|
| March 2019 | Annual Report 2018 |
| May 2019 |
Quarterly Financial Report Q1 2019 |
| August 2019 | Half-year Financial Report 2019 |
| November 2019 | Quarterly Financial Report 9M 2019 |
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Such statements are based on a number of assumptions, estimates, projections or plans that are inherently subject to significant risks, as well as uncertainties and contingencies that are subject to change. Actual results can differ materially from those anticipated in the Company's forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, including those set forth from time to time in the Company's press releases and reports and those set forth from time to time in the Company's analyst calls and discussions. We do not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.
This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or offer to buy any securities of the Company, and no part of this presentation shall form the basis of or may be relied upon in connection with any offer or commitment whatsoever. This presentation is being presented solely for your information and is subject to change without notice.
UASC's Ltd. and its subsidiaries have been included in the figures from the date control was transferred on 24 May 2017.The key figures used are therefore only comparable with the previous year to a limited extent.
Hapag-Lloyd Investor Relations
Ballindamm 25 20095 Hamburg Tel: +49(40) 3001-2896 [email protected] https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/ir.html