Earnings Release • Nov 8, 2018
Earnings Release
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Hannover, 8 November 2018
| Group figures in m. EUR | Q3/2017 | Q3/2018 | Δ | Q1-3/2017 | Q1-3/2018 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 4,486 | 5,007 | +11.6% | 13,484 | 14,992 | +11.2% |
| Net premium earned | 4,008 | 4,428 | +10.5% | 11,541 | 12,774 | +10.7% |
| Net underwriting result | (590) | (204) | - | (669) | (104) | - |
| - Incl. funds withheld | (533) | (155) | - | (488) | 60 | - |
| Net investment income | 603 | 412 | -31.7% | 1,383 | 1,155 | -16.4% |
| - From assets under own mgmt. | 546 | 362 | -33.6% | 1,202 | 992 | -17.5% |
| - From funds withheld | 57 | 49 | -13.2% | 180 | 163 | -9.4% |
| Other income and expenses | (6) | 42 | - | 92 | 105 | +13.9% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 7 | 250 | - | 806 | 1,157 | +43.5% |
| Financing costs | (18) | (20) | +13.0% | (54) | (58) | +7.8% |
| Net income before taxes | (11) | 229 | - | 753 | 1,099 | +46.1% |
| Taxes | 47 | (37) | - | (143) | (310) | +117.2% |
| Net income | 36 | 193 | - | 610 | 789 | +29.4% |
| - Non-controlling interests | 22 | 23 | +2.6% | 61 | 64 | +4.4% |
| Group net income | 14 | 170 | - | 549 | 725 | +32.1% |
| Retention | 89.7% | 89.7% | 90.1% | 90.8% | ||
| EBIT margin (EBIT/Net premium earned) | 0.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | ||
| Tax ratio | - | 16.1% | 19.0% | 28.2% | ||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.11 | 1.41 | 4.55 | 6.01 |
AuM +3.5%; strengthening of USD largely offsets decrease in valuation reserves
| Property & Casualty R/I in m. EUR | Q3/2017 | Q3/2018 | Q1-3/2017 | Q1-3/2018 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 2,772 | 3,190 | 8,199 | 9,658 | GWP f/x-adjusted +24.0%, mainly from Structured R/I; diversified growth in other areas |
| Net premium earned | 2,440 | 2,842 | 6,753 | 8,017 | NPE f/x-adjusted +24.9% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
(446) | 38 | (296) | 259 | Major losses of EUR 365 m. (4.5% of NPE) well below budget despite high frequency in Q3 |
| Combined ratio incl. interest on funds withheld |
118.3% | 98.7% | 104.4% | 96.8% | Run-off result without extraordinary effects |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
460 | 271 | 933 | 757 | Favourable ordinary investment income |
| Other income and expenses | (46) | 6 | (36) | (13) | Other income and expenses mainly improved due to positive currency effects |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | (33) | 315 | 602 | 1,004 | EBIT margin of 12.5% above target of 10% |
| Tax ratio | - | 17.6% | 16.1% | 26.8% | Tax ratio at normal level; increase due to tax reduced disposal gains and dividends in previous year |
| Group net income | 5 | 238 | 449 | 672 | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.04 | 1.97 | 3.72 | 5.58 |
* Up to 2011 claims over EUR 5 m. gross, from 2012 onwards claims over EUR 10 m. gross
| Catastrophe losses* in m. EUR Date |
Gross | Net | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm "Friederike", Europe | 17. - 18. Jan | 48.7 | 32.1 |
| Earthquake, Papua New Guinea | 25. - 26. Feb | 19.0 | 13.0 |
| Cyclone "Mekunu", Oman | 24. - 26. May | 11.5 | 9.4 |
| Typhoon "Prapiroon", Japan | 29. Jun - 06. Jul | 68.7 | 54.2 |
| Wildfire, USA | 23. Jul - 30. Aug | 14.0 | 8.6 |
| Typhoon "Jebi", Japan | 04. Sep | 197.9 | 103.3 |
| Typhoon "Mangkhut", Guam, Philippines, China | 10. - 19. Sep | 13.0 | 5.2 |
| Hurricane "Florence", USA | 14. - 20. Sep | 65.4 | 39.6 |
| Typhoon "Trami", Japan | 28. Sep - 01. Oct | 64.5 | 22.2 |
| 9 Natural catastrophes | 502.8 | 287.6 | |
| 3 Property claims | 71.8 | 53.7 | |
| 1 Credit claim | 23.3 | 23.3 | |
| 13 Major losses | 597.9 | 364.6 |
* Natural catastrophes and other major losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross
| markets | Continental Europe* | 98.4% | 12.4% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine | 36.2% | 78.0% | ||
| Aviation | 91.3% | 21.9% | ||
| Specialty lines |
Credit, surety and political risks | 86.1% | 21.6% | |
| worldwide | UK, Ireland, London market and direct |
106.3% | 5.9% | |
| Facultative R/I | 102.8% | 6.9% | ||
| Worldwide Treaty* R/I | 96.6% | 12.0% | ||
| Global R/I |
Cat XL | 93.0% | 24.3% | |
| Structured R/I and ILS | 98.3% | 4.4% | ||
| Total | 96.8% | 12.5% |
MtCR = Maximum tolerable Combined Ratio Combined Ratio
* All lines of Property & Casualty reinsurance except those stated separately
| Life & Health R/I in m. EUR | Q3/2017 | Q3/2018 | Q1-3/2017 | Q1-3/2018 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 1,714 | 1,817 | 5,284 | 5,335 | GWP f/x-adjusted +4.8%, mainly from China and UK Longevity |
| Net premium earned | 1,568 | 1,586 | 4,789 | 4,757 | NPE f/x-adjusted growth +3.2% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
(86) | (193) | (193) | (199) | Technical result impacted by recaptures of EUR -218 m.* in Q3; positive underlying development |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
86 | 91 | 266 | 232 | Favourable ordinary investment income Other income and expenses mainly the result of |
| Other income and expenses | 41 | 38 | 133 | 122 | strong contribution from deposit accounted treaties (Q1-3/2018: EUR 144 m.) |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 41 | (64) | 206 | 155 | EBIT growth target outperformed when excluding recapture charges |
| EBIT margin | 2.6% | (4.0%) | 4.3% | 3.3% | Tax ratio above long-term average due to one-time |
| Tax ratio | 45.9% | 18.0% | 31.9% | 39.3% | charges in deferred taxes due to change in business set-up linked to the US tax reform in Q1/2018 |
| Group net income | 22 | (54) | 136 | 93 | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.18 | -0.45 | 1.13 | 0.77 |
* USD -260 m.
9
| in m. EUR | Q3/2017 | Q3/2018 | Q1-3/2017 | Q1-3/2018 | RoI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary investment income* | 312 | 360 | 953 | 994 | 3.3% |
| Realised gains/losses | 260 | 47 | 343 | 101 | 0.3% |
| Impairments/appreciations & depreciations |
(11) | (16) | (34) | (37) | -0.1% |
| Change in fair value of financial instruments (through P&L) |
12 | 0 | 22 | 20 | 0.1% |
| Investment expenses | (26) | (29) | (82) | (86) | -0.3% |
| NII from assets under own mgmt. | 546 | 362 | 1,202 | 992 | 3.2% |
| NII from funds withheld | 57 | 49 | 180 | 163 | |
| Total net investment income | 603 | 412 | 1,383 | 1,155 |
| Unrealised gains/losses of investments | 31 Dec 17 | 30 Sep 18 |
|---|---|---|
| On-balance sheet | 1,159 | 475 |
| thereof Fixed income AFS | 706 | 73 |
| Off-balance sheet | 489 | 436 |
| thereof Fixed income HTM, L&R | 315 | 231 |
| Total | 1,648 | 911 |
* Incl. results from associated companies
YTD
| Investment category | 30 Sep 18 |
|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 88% |
| - Governments | 35% |
| - Semi-governments | 16% |
| - Corporates | 29% |
| Investment grade | 26% |
| Non-investment grade | 4% |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered Bonds, ABS | 7% |
| Equities | 2% |
| - Listed Equity | <1% |
| - Private Equity | 2% |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 5% |
| Others | 1% |
| Short-term investments & cash | 3% |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 41.9 |
Economic view based on market values as at 30 September 2018 * Before real estate-specific costs
| Business group | Key figures | Strategic targets for 2018 |
Q1-3/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Return on investment1) | ≥ 2.7% | 3.3% |
| Return on equity2) | ≥ 9.5% | 11.5% | |
| Earnings per share growth (y-o-y) | ≥ 5% | 32.1% | |
| Economic value creation3) | ≥ 6.5% | n.a. | |
| Solvency ratio4) | ≥ 200% | 252% | |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Gross premium growth5) | 3% - 5% | 24.0% |
| Combined ratio6) | ≤ 96% | 96.8% | |
| EBIT margin7) | ≥ 10% | 12.5% | |
| xRoCA8) | ≥ 2% | n.a. | |
| Life & Health R/I | Gross premium growth9) | 3% - 5% | 4.8% |
| Value of New Business (VNB)10) | ≥ EUR 220 m. | n.a. | |
| EBIT growth | ≥ 5% | -24.6% | |
| xRoCA8) | ≥ 2% | n.a. |
1) Excl. effects from ModCo derivatives 2) After tax; target: 900 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds
3) Growth in economic equity + paid dividend; target: 600 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds
4) According to our internal capital model and Solvency II requirements; as of 30 June 2018
5) On average throughout the R/I cycle; at constant f/x rates 6) Incl. expected net major losses
7) EBIT/net premium earned 8) Excess return on allocated economic capital
9) Organic growth only; annual average growth (5-year period), at constant f/x rates
10) Based on Solvency II principles and pre-tax reporting
Hannover Re Group
1) At unchanged f/x rates
2) Subject to no major distortions in capital markets and/or major losses in 2018 not exceeding the large loss budget of EUR 825 m.
3) Excluding effects from ModCo derivatives
4) Relative to group net income according to IFRS
| North America3) Target |
+/- |
|---|---|
| markets Continental Europe3) |
+ |
| Marine | + |
| Aviation Specialty |
- |
| lines Credit, surety and political risks |
+ |
| worldwide UK, Ireland, London market and direct |
- |
| Facultative reinsurance | - |
| Worldwide treaty3) reinsurance | +/- |
| Global Cat XL reinsurance |
+/- |
| Structured reinsurance and ILS | +/- |
1) In EUR, development in original currencies can be different
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
3) All lines of business except those stated separately
| Reporting categories | Volume1) | Profitability2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial solutions |
Financial solutions | ++ | |
| Longevity | +/- | ||
| Risk solutions |
Mortality | - | |
| Morbidity | +/- |
1) In EUR, development in original currencies can be different
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
Hannover Re Group
Dividend payout ratio4) 35% 45% (If comfortable level of capitalisation remains unchanged, this ratio will increase through payment of another special dividend)
2) Subject to no major distortions in capital markets and/or major losses in 2019 not exceeding the large loss budget of EUR 875 m.
1) At unchanged f/x rates
We expect significantly increased EBIT growth from 2019 onwards as we are resolving the problems with US mortality legacy book
AuM are expected to rise further due to continued positive cash flow from operations
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q1-3/2017 | Q1-3/2018 | Δ | Q1-3/2016 | Q1-3/2018 | Δ | Q1-3/2017 | Q1-3/2018 | Δ |
| Gross written premium | 8,199 | 9,658 | +17.8% | 5,284 | 5,335 | +1.0% | 13,484 | 14,992 | +11.2% |
| Net premium earned | 6,753 | 8,017 | +18.7% | 4,789 | 4,757 | -0.7% | 11,541 | 12,774 | +10.7% |
| Net underwriting result | (309) | 233 | - | (360) | (336) | - | (669) | (104) | - |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld | (296) | 259 | - | (193) | (199) | +3.4% | (488) | 60 | - |
| Net investment income | 947 | 784 | -17.2% | 433 | 369 | -14.7% | 1,383 | 1,155 | -16.4% |
| From assets under own management | 933 | 757 | -18.9% | 266 | 232 | -12.6% | 1,202 | 992 | -17.5% |
| From funds withheld | 13 | 27 | +97.9% | 167 | 137 | -18.0% | 180 | 163 | -9.4% |
| Other income and expenses | (36) | (13) | - | 133 | 122 | -8.0% | 92 | 105 | +13.9% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 602 | 1,004 | +66.8% | 206 | 155 | -24.6% | 806 | 1,157 | +43.5% |
| Financing costs | 0 | (0) | +0.0% | 0 | (0) | - | (54) | (58) | +7.8% |
| Net income before taxes | 602 | 1,004 | +66.8% | 206 | 155 | -24.6% | 753 | 1,099 | +46.1% |
| Taxes | (97) | (269) | +178.3% | (66) | (61) | -7.1% | (143) | (310) | +117.2% |
| Net income | 505 | 735 | +45.5% | 140 | 94 | -32.9% | 610 | 789 | +29.4% |
| Non-controlling interest | 56 | 62 | +10.7% | 5 | 1 | -74.4% | 61 | 64 | +4.4% |
| Group net income | 449 | 672 | +49.8% | 136 | 93 | -31.5% | 549 | 725 | +32.1% |
| Retention | 89.2% | 90.9% | 91.5% | 90.6% | 90.1% | 90.8% | |||
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 104.4% | 96.8% | 104.0% | 104.2% | 104.2% | 99.5% | |||
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 8.9% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 7.0% | 9.1% | |||
| Tax ratio | 16.1% | 26.8% | 31.9% | 39.3% | 19.0% | 28.2% | |||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 3.72 | 5.58 | 1.13 | 0.77 | 4.55 | 6.01 |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q3/2017 | Q3/2018 | Δ | Q3/2017 | Q3/2018 | Δ | Q3/2017 | Q3/2018 | Δ |
| Gross written premium | 2,772 | 3,190 | +15.1% | 1,714 | 1,817 | +6.0% | 4,486 | 5,007 | +11.6% |
| Net premium earned | 2,440 | 2,842 | +16.5% | 1,568 | 1,586 | +1.2% | 4,008 | 4,428 | +10.5% |
| Net underwriting result | (458) | 28 | - | (132) | (232) | +76.2% | (590) | (204) | - |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld | (446) | 38 | - | (86) | (193) | - | (533) | (155) | - |
| Net investment income | 471 | 281 | -40.4% | 131 | 130 | -0.7% | 603 | 412 | -31.7% |
| From assets under own management | 460 | 271 | -41.1% | 86 | 91 | +5.8% | 546 | 362 | -33.7% |
| From funds withheld | 12 | 10 | -11.1% | 45 | 39 | -32.8% | 57 | 49 | -12.8% |
| Other income and expenses | (46) | 6 | - | 41 | 38 | - | (6) | 42 | 32.3% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | (33) | 315 | - | 41 | (64) | - | 7 | 250 | - |
| Financing costs | 0 | (0) | - | 0 | (0) | - | (18) | (20) | +13.0% |
| Net income before taxes | (33) | 315 | - | 41 | (64) | - | (11) | 229 | - |
| Taxes | 59 | (55) | - | (19) | 12 | -161.8% | 47 | (37) | - |
| Net income | 26 | 259 | - | 22 | (53) | - | 36 | 193 | - |
| Non-controlling interest | 22 | 21 | -0.4% | 1 | 1 | +127.1% | 22 | 23 | +2.6% |
| Group net income | 5 | 238 | - | 22 | (54) | - | 14 | 170 | - |
| Retention | 88.8% | 89.9% | 91.2% | 89.4% | 89.7% | 89.7% | |||
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 118.3% | 98.7% | 105.5% | 112.2% | 113.3% | 103.5% | |||
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | -1.3% | 11.1% | 2.6% | -4.0% | 0.2% | 5.6% | |||
| Tax ratio | - | 17.6% | 45.9% | -18.0% | - | 16.1% | |||
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.04 | 1.97 | 0.18 | -0.45 | 0.11 | 1.41 |
| Investment category | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 30 Sep 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 90% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 88% |
| - Governments | 21% | 26% | 28% | 30% | 35% |
| - Semi-governments | 19% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 16% |
| - Corporates | 36% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 29% |
| Investment grade | 33% | 30% | 28% | 27% | 26% |
| Non-investment grade | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS | 14% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 2) 7% |
| Equities | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| - Listed equity | <1% | 1% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| - Private equity | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Short-term investments & cash | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 36.8 | 39.8 | 42.3 | 40.5 | 41.9 |
1) Economic view based on market values without outstanding commitments for Private Equity and Alternative Real Estate as well as fixed-income investments
of EUR 1,449.8 m. (EUR 1,201.9 m.) as at 30 Sep 2018
2) Of which Pfandbriefe and Covered Bonds = 70.9%
Unchanged focus on yields and credit spreads; reduced relevance of equities
| Portfolio | Scenario | Change in market value in m. EUR |
Change in OCI before tax in m. EUR |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | -89 | -89 | ||
| Equity (listed and private equity) | -20% | -178 | -178 | |
| +50 bps | -945 | -824 | ||
| Fixed-income securities | +100 bps | -1,844 | -1,608 | |
| Credit spreads +50% |
-725 | -663 |
As at 30 September 2018
Geographical allocation mainly in accordance with our broad business diversification
| Governments | Semi governments |
Corporates | Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS |
Short-term investments, cash |
Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 78.8% | 58.9% | 1.8% | 60.5% | - | 48.8% | ||||||
| A A |
12.1% | 27.2% | 14.3% | 22.7% | - | 16.4% | ||||||
| A | 5.0% | 5.7% | 31.9% | 10.9% | - | 14.3% | ||||||
| BBB | 2.2% | 1.4% | 43.9% | 4.5% | - | 15.8% | ||||||
| <bbb< td=""> | 1.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 1.4% | - | 4.7% | </bbb<>1.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 1.4% | - | 4.7% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | - | 100.0% | ||||||
| Germany | 17.2% | 43.1% | 4.6% | 19.2% | 16.6% | 17.8% | ||||||
| UK | 7.2% | 2.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | ||||||
| France | 1.2% | 1.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 0.9% | 3.5% | ||||||
| GIIPS | 0.8% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 2.2% | ||||||
| Rest of Europe | 2.3% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 21.7% | 4.3% | 9.7% | ||||||
| USA | 56.3% | 9.6% | 34.1% | 13.8% | 15.7% | 36.4% | ||||||
| Australia | 3.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | ||||||
| Asia | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 0.7% | 31.8% | 7.5% | ||||||
| Rest of World | 4.1% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 16.2% | 9.2% | ||||||
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||||||
| Total b/s values in m. EUR | 14,873 | 6,409 | 11,664 | 3,034 | 1,431 | 37,411 |
IFRS figures as at 30 September 2018
Modified duration
| 2017 | 4.8 |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 |
| 2014 | 4.6 |
| 2013 | 4.4 |
| 2012 | 4.5 |
Modified duration as at 30 September 2018: 4.8
Economic view based on market values as at 30 September 2018 * Governments and Semi-Governments
VII Conference Call on Q3/2018 results
This presentation does not address the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person or legal entity. Investors should seek independent professional advice and perform their own analysis regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of our securities.
While Hannover Re has endeavoured to include in this presentation information it believes to be reliable, complete and up-to-date, the company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or updated status of such information.
Some of the statements in this presentation may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on currently available information. Such statements naturally are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors such as the development of general economic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements.
This presentation serves information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of an offer or solicitation to acquire, subscribe to or dispose of, any of the securities of Hannover Re.
© Hannover Rück SE. All rights reserved.
Hannover Re is the registered service mark of Hannover Rück SE.
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