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Hannover Rueck SE — Call Transcript 2022
Nov 3, 2022
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Call Transcript
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Conference Call on Q3/2022 financial results
Hannover, 3 November 2022
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty | 6 |
| 3 | Life & Health | 12 |
| 4 | Investments | 15 |
| 5 | Target Matrix and Outlook 2022 | 18 |
| Appendix | 21 |
Group net income target for 2022 remains achievable Return on equity of 11.5% despite significant loss burden in first nine months 2022
Strong operating cash flow driven by premium growth AuM +3.2%, cash flow and stronger USD offset impact of rising interest rates
42,197 47,629 49,002 56,213 58,016 2018 2019 2020 2021 30.09.2022 Operating cash flow in m. EUR 627 709 935 1,686 1,269 390 821 736 994 850 692 941 919 1,513 1,649 515 39 429 747 2,225 2,509 3,018 4,940 3,770 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Assets under own management (AuM) in m. EUR | 1 Group overview | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Shareholders' equity decreased mainly due to rising interest rates From an economic view, impact on capitalisation is moderate due to strict ALM
5 Conference Call on Q3/2022 financial results
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty | 6 |
| 3 | Life & Health | 12 |
| 4 | Investments | 15 |
| 5 | Target Matrix and Outlook 2022 | 18 |
| Appendix | 21 |
Continued strong growth in an improving pricing environment Result impacted by loss activity, partly offset by inflation protection
| Property & Casualty R/I in m. EUR | Q3/2021 | Q3/2022 | Q1-3/2021 | Q1-3/2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 5,003 | 6,562 | 15,269 | 19,484 |
| Net premium earned | 4,229 | 5,742 | 12,076 | 15,562 |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
(64) | 25 | 253 | 121 |
| Combined ratio incl. interest on funds withheld |
101.5% | 99.6% | 97.9% | 99.2% |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
387 | 340 | 957 | 993 |
| Other income and expenses | (40) | (64) | (148) | (227) |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 283 | 301 | 1,061 | 887 |
| Tax ratio | 43.7% | 37.3% | 26.1% | 29.0% |
| Group net income | 147 | 146 | 739 | 545 |
YTD
- GWP f/x-adjusted +18.6%, diversified growth from traditional and Structured Reinsurance business
- NPE f/x-adjusted +20.2%
- Net large losses of EUR 1,484 m. (9.5% of NPE) above budget of EUR 1,079 m. for Q1-3/2022
- Precautionary reserving related to war in Ukraine at EUR 331 m. (1H/2022: 316 m.)
- Covid-19: increased frequency of claims in Asia accident & health business, partly offset by reserve releases in Credit, net negative impact of ~EUR 150 m.
- Negative PYD for large losses (e.g. Brazil drought (EUR 130 m.), Texas Freeze and Malaysia Floods)
- Increase in net investment income principally due to strong ordinary investment income, supported by inflation linkers (EUR 301 m.)
- Other income and expenses mainly driven by negative currency effects
| 1 | 2 Property & Casualty | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Major losses already above full-year budget 2022 EUR 321 m. remains budgeted for large losses in Q4
Natural and man-made catastrophe losses1) in m. EUR
1) Natural catastrophes and other major losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross
8 Conference Call on Q3/2022 financial results
| 1 | 2 Property & Casualty | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Catastrophe losses1 ) in m. EUR Date Gross Net NatCat losses above YTD budget, driven by increased loss activity in Q3 Hurricane "Ian" net loss reflects our modest market share in Florida
| Storm "Ylenia/Zeynep", Europe | 16 - 19 Feb | 130.4 | 114.8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rain and flood, Australia | 21 Feb - 3 Mar | 272.5 | 210.6 |
| Earthquake, Japan | 16 Mar | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| Floods, South Africa | 8 - 15 Apr | 85.5 | 85.4 |
| Storm / hail, USA | 10 - 15 Apr | 22.3 | 10.3 |
| Storm / hail , USA | 9 - 12 May | 75.4 | 49.3 |
| Storm, Canada | 21 May | 15.7 | 8.7 |
| Tornadoes / hail, USA | 27 - 31 May | 12.8 | 9.4 |
| Storm / hail, France | 2 - 6 Jun | 44.7 | 33.2 |
| Storm / hail, USA | 4 - 7 Jun | 14.4 | 4.5 |
| Storm "Qiara", France | 19 - 23 Jun | 111.1 | 84.1 |
| Floods, South Korea | 7 - 10 Aug | 28.7 | 28.7 |
| 2) Typhoon "Nanmandol", Japan |
18 - 19 Sep | 64.5 | 64.5 |
| 2) Hurricane "Fiona", Caribbean, USA, Canada |
18 - 22 Sep | 47.0 | 43.0 |
| 2) Typhoon "Noru", Philippines |
25 - 26 Sep | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| 2) Hurricane "Ian", USA |
27 - 29 Sep | 276.0 | 276.0 |
| 16 Natural catastrophes | 1,229.8 | 1,051.4 |
1) Natural catastrophes and other major losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross Large loss budget 2022: EUR 1,400 m., thereof EUR 250 m. man-made and EUR 1,150 m. NatCat 2) Based on own IBNR estimate only (top-down approach); actual gross loss expected to be higher due to retrocession and ILS business
Man-made losses within budget; Russia/Ukraine IBNR unchanged
| Man-made losses within budget; Russia/Ukraine IBNR unchanged | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catastrophe losses1 ) in m. EUR |
Gross | Net | |||
| 16 Natural catastrophes | 1,229.8 | 1,051.4 | |||
| 1 Marine loss | 16.9 | 14.8 | |||
| 1 Credit loss | 16.9 | 16.9 | |||
| 4 Property losses | 72.2 | 70.1 | |||
| 6 Man-made losses | 106.1 | 101.8 | |||
| 22 Major losses | 1,335.9 | 1,153.2 | |||
| War Russia/Ukraine | 330.8 | 330.8 | |||
| Total | 1,666.7 | 1,484.0 |
1) Natural catastrophes and other major losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross Large loss budget 2022: EUR 1,400 m., thereof EUR 250 m. man-made and EUR 1,150 m. NatCat
Combined ratios impacted by large losses
Q1-3/2022: Combined Ratio vs. target combined ratios
1) All lines of Property & Casualty reinsurance except those stated separately; EMEA incl. CIS
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty | 6 |
| 3 | Life & Health | 12 |
| 4 | Investments | 15 |
| 5 | Target Matrix and Outlook 2022 | 18 |
| Appendix | 21 | |
Strong underlying profitability
Strong earnings in Financial Solutions and Longevity – Covid-19 claims decreasing
| Life & Health R/I in m. EUR | Q3/2021 | Q3/2022 | Q1-3/2021 | Q1-3/2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 2,152 | 2,347 | 6,350 | 6,767 |
| Net premium earned | 1,889 | 2,076 | 5,558 | 6,024 |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
(122) | (41) | (315) | (177) |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
61 | 29 | 185 | 229 |
| Other income and expenses | 102 | 120 | 351 | 389 |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 41 | 108 | 220 | 441 |
| EBIT margin | 2.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 7.3% |
| Tax ratio | (9.8%) | 15.4% | 31.3% | 15.4% |
| Group net income | 45 | 90 | 150 | 369 |
YTD
- GWP f/x-adjusted +1.1%
- NPE f/x-adjusted +2.5%
- Technical result includes declining Covid-19 losses of EUR 228 m. (Q1-3/2021 EUR 404 m.), thereof US: EUR 113 m.
- Ordinary investment income increased primarily due to higher contribution from fixed income
- Fair value of financial instruments includes positive valuation effect of EUR 97 m. from extreme mortality cover and negative effect from reinsurance-related derivative in UK (EUR -144 m.)
- Other income and expenses mainly driven by strong contribution from deposit accounted treaties of EUR 338 m. (Q1-3/2021: EUR 282 m.) and one-off recapturing fee income of EUR 40 m.
Stable quarter with a promising pipeline for the rest of the year Q3/2022 new and pipeline business1)
| Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|
| Property & Casualty | 6 |
| Life & Health | 12 |
| Investments | 15 |
| Target Matrix and Outlook 2022 | 18 |
| Appendix | 21 |
Stable return on investment of 2.9% above target Strong and increased ordinary investment income
| in m. EUR | Q3/2021 | Q3/2022 | Q1-3/2021 | Q1-3/2022 | RoI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary investment income1) | 408 | 529 | 1,106 | 1,432 | 3.3% |
| Realised gains/losses | 96 | (37) | 238 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Impairments/appreciations & depreciations | (13) | (61) | (52) | (113) | -0.3% |
| Change in fair value of financial instruments (through P&L) |
(5) | (18) | (48) | 10 | 0.0% |
| Investment expenses | (36) | (44) | (101) | (122) | -0.3% |
| NII from assets under own management | 449 | 370 | 1,142 | 1,223 | 2.9% |
| NII from funds withheld | 42 | 31 | 215 | 157 | |
| Total net investment income | 491 | 400 | 1,357 | 1,380 |
| Unrealised gains/losses on investments | 31 Dec 21 | 30 Sep 22 |
|---|---|---|
| On-balance sheet | 2,310 | (4,820) |
| thereof Fixed income AFS | 1,299 | (5,836) |
| Off-balance sheet | 629 | 496 |
| thereof Fixed income HTM, L&R | 148 | (62) |
| Total | 2,939 | (4,324) |
1) Incl. results from associated companies
YTD
- Increasing ordinary income from inflation-linked bonds, higher reinvestment yields, higher return from real estate investments as well as higher asset volume
- Realised gains primarily from liquidation of portfolio of listed equity, largely offset by reallocations due to strategic and regular portfolio adjustments, liquidity management and partial realisation of a reinsurance-related derivative
- Stable depreciation on direct real estate investments; rise in impairments mainly due to fixed income securities impacted by Russia/Ukraine war and alternatives
- Change in fair value of financial instruments through P&L impacted by valuation of reinsurance-related derivatives (UK and extreme mortality cover)
- Decrease in valuation reserves due to higher risk-minimal yield curves and credit spreads on corporates
Ordinary income with increased return from government bonds Rather stable asset allocation with defensive credit risk taking since beginning of year
1)
| Investment category | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Q3/2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 87% | 87% | 85% | 86% | 83% |
| - Governments | 35% | 35% | 34% | 34% | 36% |
| - Semi-governments | 16% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 13% |
| - Corporates | 29% | 31% | 30% | 32% | 27% |
| Investment grade | 25% | 26% | 25% | 28% | 23% |
| Non-investment grade | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 2) 6% |
| Equities | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| - Listed equity | >0% | >0% | 1% | 1% | >0% |
| - Private equity | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Real Assets | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 7% |
| Others | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Short-term investments & cash | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 42.7 | 48.2 | 49.8 | 56.2 | 58.5 |
Asset allocation Ordinary income split
1) Economic view based on market values without outstanding commitments for Private Equity and Alternative Real Estate as well as fixed-income investments of EUR 1,951.0 m. (EUR 1,588.2 m.) as at 30 September 2022
2) Of which Pfandbriefe and Covered Bonds = 58.7%
3) Before real estate-specific costs. Economic view based on market values as at 30 September 2022
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty | 6 |
| 3 | Life & Health | 12 |
| 4 | Investments | 15 |
| 5 | Target Matrix and Outlook 2022 | 18 |
| Appendix | 21 | |
Target Matrix: Q1-3/2022 Strategy cycle 2021 - 2023
| Business group | Key figures | Strategic targets | Q1-3/2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Return on equity1 ) |
900 bps above risk-free | 11.5% |
| Solvency ratio2 ) |
≥ 200% | 232% | |
| Property & Casualty reinsurance | Gross premium growth3 ) |
≥ 5% | +18.6% |
| EBIT growth4 ) |
≥ 5% | -16.4% | |
| Combined ratio | ≤ 96% | 99.2% | |
| xRoCA5 ) |
≥ 2% | n.a. | |
| Life & Health reinsurance | Gross premium growth3 ) |
≥ 3% | +1.1% |
| EBIT growth4 ) |
≥ 5% | +100.5% | |
| Value of New Business (VNB)6 ) |
≥ EUR 250 m. | n.a. | |
| xRoCA5 ) |
≥ 2% | n.a. |
1) After tax; risk-free: 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds 2) According to our internal capital model and Solvency II requirements
3) Average annual growth at constant f/x rates 4) Average annual growth
5) Excess return (one-year economic profit in excess of the cost of capital) on allocated economic capital 6) Based on Solvency II principles; pre-tax reporting
Guidance for 2022 remains achievable
Hannover Re Group
| • | Gross written premium1) | > 7.5% |
|---|---|---|
| • | 2) Return on investment |
> 2.5% |
| • | Group net income 2) | at the lower end of the EUR 1.4 - 1.5 bn. range |
- Ordinary dividend ≥ prior year
- Special dividend if capitalisation exceeds capital requirements for future growth and profit targets are achieved
1) At unchanged f/x rates
2) Subject to no major distortions in capital markets and/or major losses not exceeding the large loss budget of EUR 321 m. in Q4/2022 and no unexpected material Covid-19 impact in L&H
| Appendix | 21 | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Target Matrix and Outlook 2022 | 18 |
| 4 | Investments | 15 |
| 3 | Life & Health | 12 |
| 2 | Property & Casualty | 6 |
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
Our business groups at a glance Q1-3/2022 vs. Q1-3/2021
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q1-3/2021 | Q1-3/2022 | Q1-3/2021 | Q1-3/2022 | Q1-3/2021 | Q1-3/2022 |
| Gross written premium | 15,269 | 19,484 | 6,350 | 6,767 | 21,620 | 26,251 |
| Change in GWP | - | +27.6% | - | +6.6% | - | +21.4% |
| Net premium earned | 12,076 | 15,562 | 5,558 | 6,024 | 17,634 | 21,586 |
| Net underwriting result | 220 | 71 | (497) | (284) | (277) | (213) |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld | 253 | 121 | (315) | (177) | (63) | (56) |
| Net investment income | 989 | 1,043 | 367 | 336 | 1,357 | 1,380 |
| From assets under own management | 957 | 993 | 185 | 229 | 1,142 | 1,223 |
| From funds withheld | 32 | 50 | 182 | 107 | 215 | 157 |
| Other income and expenses | (148) | (227) | 351 | 389 | 201 | 161 |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 1.061 | 887 | 220 | 441 | 1,281 | 1,328 |
| Financing costs | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (61) | (64) |
| Net income before taxes | 1.060 | 886 | 219 | 440 | 1,219 | 1,264 |
| Taxes | (276) | (257) | (69) | (68) | (318) | (306) |
| Net income | 784 | 629 | 150 | 373 | 901 | 958 |
| Non-controlling interest | 44 | 84 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 87 |
| Group net income | 739 | 545 | 150 | 369 | 856 | 871 |
| Retention | 90.4% | 91.3% | 88.3% | 88.8% | 89.8% | 90.7% |
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 97.9% | 99.2% | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% |
| Tax ratio | 26.1% | 29.0% | 31.3% | 15.4% | 26.1% | 24.2% |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 6.13 | 4.52 | 1.24 | 3.06 | 7.10 | 7.22 |
Our business groups at a glance Q3/2022 vs. Q3/2021
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q3/2021 | Q3/2022 | Q3/2021 | Q3/2022 | Q3/2021 | Q3/2022 |
| Gross written premium | 5,003 | 6,562 | 2,152 | 2,347 | 7,155 | 8,909 |
| Change in GWP | - | +31.2% | - | +9.0% | - | +24.5% |
| Net premium earned | 4,229 | 5,742 | 1,889 | 2,076 | 6,119 | 7,819 |
| Net underwriting result | (82) | 16 | (147) | (63) | (229) | (47) |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld | (64) | 25 | (122) | (41) | (187) | (16) |
| Net investment income | 405 | 349 | 86 | 50 | 491 | 400 |
| From assets under own management | 387 | 340 | 61 | 29 | 449 | 370 |
| From funds withheld | 18 | 9 | 25 | 21 | 42 | 31 |
| Other income and expenses | (40) | (64) | 102 | 120 | 63 | 55 |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 283 | 301 | 41 | 108 | 325 | 409 |
| Financing costs | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) | (21) | (21) |
| Net income before taxes | 283 | 301 | 41 | 107 | 303 | 387 |
| Taxes | (124) | (112) | 4 | (16) | (106) | (122) |
| Net income | 159 | 189 | 45 | 91 | 197 | 266 |
| Non-controlling interest | 12 | 43 | (0) | 1 | 12 | 44 |
| Group net income | 147 | 146 | 45 | 90 | 185 | 222 |
| Retention | 88.4% | 90.6% | 88.4% | 88.8% | 88.4% | 90.1% |
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 101.5% | 99.6% | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| Tax ratio | 43.7% | 37.3% | (9.8%) | 15.4% | 35.0% | 31.4% |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.22 | 1.21 | 0.37 | 0.74 | 1.54 | 1.84 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Stress tests on assets under own management
After listed equity liquidation, main focus turns back to credit exposures
| Portfolio | Scenario | Change in market value in m. EUR |
Change in OCI before tax in m. EUR |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | -215 | -215 | ||
| Equity (listed and private equity) | -20% | -429 | -429 | |
| +50 bps | -1,226 | -1,191 | ||
| Fixed-income securities | +100 bps | -2,391 | -2,323 | |
| Credit spreads | +50% | -1,094 | -1,076 |
As at 30 September 2022
High-quality fixed-income book well balanced
</bbb<>| High-quality fixed-income book well balanced Geographical allocation mainly in accordance with our broad business diversification |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governments | Semi governments |
Corporates | Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS |
Short-term investments, cash |
Total | |||||||
| AAA | 76% | 52% | 1 % |
59% | - | 47% | ||||||
| A A |
10% | 23% | 10% | 13% | - | 12% | ||||||
| A | 10% | 8 % |
35% | 13% | - | 18% | ||||||
| BBB | 3 % |
2 % |
43% | 13% | - | 17% | ||||||
| <bbb< td=""> | 2 % | 14% | 11% | 2 % | - | 7 % |
2 % |
14% | 11% | 2 % |
- | 7 % |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 100% | ||||||
| Germany | 12% | 26% | 3 % |
18% | 25% | 12% | ||||||
| UK | 6 % |
1 % |
6 % |
6 % |
7 % |
5 % |
||||||
| France | 2 % |
1 % |
6 % |
8 % |
1 % |
4 % |
||||||
| GIIPS | 0 % |
3 % |
5 % |
8 % |
0 % |
3 % |
||||||
| Rest of Europe | 3 % |
14% | 12% | 19% | 2 % |
9 % |
||||||
| USA | 55% | 13% | 33% | 20% | 17% | 38% | ||||||
| Australia | 2 % |
18% | 6 % |
5 % |
5 % |
6 % |
||||||
| Asia | 17% | 23% | 19% | 10% | 39% | 19% | ||||||
| Rest of World | 2 % |
1 % |
9 % |
5 % |
5 % |
4 % |
||||||
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||||
| Total b/s values in m. EUR | 21,317 | 7,585 | 15,264 | 3,670 | 2,644 | 50,480 |
IFRS figures as at 30 September 2022
25 Conference Call on Q3/2022 financial results
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Currency allocation matches balance sheet liability profile as much as possible Duration-neutral strategy intact; lower modified duration as result of yield increases
Currency split of investments
- Modified duration of fixed-income mainly congruent with liability- and capital-driven targets
- GBP's higher modified duration predominantly due to life business
| Modified duration | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3/2022 | 4.8 | |||
| 2021 | 5.8 | |||
| 2020 | 5.8 | |||
| 2019 | 5.7 | |||
| 2018 | 4.8 | |||
IR calendar
Disclaimer
This presentation does not address the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person or legal entity. Investors should seek independent professional advice and perform their own analysis regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of our securities.
While Hannover Re has endeavoured to include in this presentation information it believes to be reliable, complete and up-todate, the company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or updated status of such information.
Some of the statements in this presentation may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on currently available information. Such statements naturally are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors such as the development of general economic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements.
This presentation serves information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of an offer or solicitation to acquire, subscribe to or dispose of, any of the securities of Hannover Re.
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