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Hannover Rueck SE — Call Transcript 2020
May 6, 2020
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Call Transcript
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Conference Call on Q1/2020 financial results
Hannover, 6 May 2020

| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 6 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 11 |
| 4 | Investments | 13 |
| 5 | Outlook 2020 | 17 |
| 6 | Appendix | 23 |
Group net income increased by 2.5% despite impact from Coronavirus RoE well above target

| 1 Group overview | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Very strong operating cash flow AuM growth slowed by decrease in valuation reserves and currency translation effects

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
| 1 Group overview | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Shareholders' equity slightly down by -0.6% Net income offset by decrease in asset valuation


| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 6 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 11 |
| 4 | Investments | 13 |
| 5 | Outlook 2020 | 17 |
| 6 | Appendix | 23 |
Double-digit growth driven by increased demand for reinsurance Underwriting result impacted by reserving for anticipated Coronavirus-related losses
| Property & Casualty R/I in m. EUR | Q1/2019 | Q1/2020 | Δ | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 4,394 | 4,986 | +13.5% | • GWP f/x-adjusted +12.2% |
| Net premium earned | 2,930 | 3,338 | +13.9% | • NPE f/x-adjusted +12.9% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
125 | 7 | -94.3% | • Major losses of EUR 284 m. (8.5% of NPE) exceeded budget of EUR 188 m. for Q1/2020 due to reserving for anticipated |
| Combined ratio incl. interest on funds withheld |
95.7% | 99.8% | - | Coronavirus-related losses (EUR 220 m.) • Unchanged conservative reserving approach |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
223 | 286 | +28.0% | • Net investment income supported by favourable ordinary income and |
| Other income and expenses | (14) | 11 | - | increased realised gains |
| • Other income and expenses increased mainly due to positive currency |
||||
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 334 | 305 | -8.9% | effects |
| Tax ratio | 28.3% | 29.4% | - | • EBIT margin of 9.1% below target of 10% |
| Group net income | 219 | 207 | -5.4% | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.82 | 1.72 | -5.3% |
Major losses including Coronavirus-related losses exceed the budget for Q1/2020 by EUR 96 m.

1) Up to 2011 claims over EUR 5 m. gross, from 2012 onwards claims over EUR 10 m. gross
Moderate major-loss expenditure apart from Coronavirus-related losses
| Moderate major-loss expenditure apart from Coronavirus-related losses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catastrophe losses1 ) in m. EUR |
Date | Gross | Net |
| Bushfire, Australia | 1 - 31 Jan | 23.0 | 22.4 |
| Hail / Storm, Australia | 19 - 20 Jan | 26.8 | 15.1 |
| Storm / Flood, Australia | 4 - 13 Feb | 17.8 | 8.5 |
| Storm "Sabine", Europe | 9 - 11 Feb | 25.2 | 17.6 |
| 4 Natural catastrophes | 92.8 | 63.6 | |
| 0 Man-made losses | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 4 Major losses | 92.8 | 63.6 | |
| Coronavirus-related losses | 220.0 | ||
| Total | 283.6 |
1) Natural catastrophes and other major losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross Large loss budget 2020: EUR 975 m. thereof EUR 200 m. man-made and EUR 775 m. NatCat
Combined ratio above target due to expected Coronavirus-related losses
Q1/2020: Combined Ratio vs. Target Combined Ratio

1) All lines of Property & Casualty reinsurance except those stated separately
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 6 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 11 |
| 4 | Investments | 13 |
| 5 | Outlook 2020 | 17 |
| 6 | Appendix | 23 |

Net income increased by 24.5% No material impact from Coronavirus pandemic in Q1
| Life & Health R/I in m. EUR | Q1/2019 | Q1/2020 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 1,979 | 1,989 | +0.5% |
| Net premium earned | 1,681 | 1,753 | +4.3% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
(50) | (52) | +4.8% |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
104 | 99 | -4.5% |
| Other income and expenses | 62 | 77 | +24.1% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 116 | 124 | +6.8% |
| EBIT margin | 6.9% | 7.1% | - |
| Tax ratio | 22.8% | 10.5% | - |
| Group net income | 89 | 110 | +24.5% |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.73 | 0.91 | +24.5% |
- YTD
- GWP f/x-adjusted +0.4%, mainly from Australia and France offsets decreased premium volume from US mortality business due to last years' recaptures
- NPE f/x-adjusted growth +4.2%
- US mortality in line with expectations
- Favourable NII supported by ordinary investment income and realised gains
- Other income and expenses is mainly the result of strong contribution from deposit accounted treaties of EUR 85 m. (Q1/2019: EUR 61 m. )
- EBIT growth of 6.8% outperforms 5% target
- Low tax ratio due to good results from low-tax subsidiaries
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 6 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 11 |
| 4 | Investments | 13 |
| 5 | Outlook 2020 | 17 |
| 6 | Appendix | 23 |
Favourable Return on Investment not impacted by current turmoil Realisations due to sale of selected corporates, semi-governments and real estate
| in m. EUR | Q1/2019 | Q1/2020 | RoI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary investment income1) | 326 | 333 | 2.8% |
| Realised gains/losses | 22 | 102 | 0.9% |
| Impairments/appreciations & depreciations | (17) | (29) | -0.2% |
| Change in fair value of financial instruments (through P&L) | 27 | 12 | 0.1% |
| Investment expenses | (30) | (32) | -0.3% |
| NII from assets under own management | 328 | 386 | 3.2% |
| NII from funds withheld | 71 | 86 | |
| Total net investment income | 399 | 472 | |
| Unrealised gains/losses of investments | 31 Dec 19 31 Mar 20 |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| On-balance sheet | 1,789 | 1,188 | |
| thereof Fixed income AFS | 1,356 | 731 | |
| Off-balance sheet | 524 | 575 | |
| thereof Fixed income HTM, L&R | 233 | 221 | |
| Total | 2,314 | 1,763 |
1) Incl. results from associated companies
YTD
- Rise in ordinary income from fixed-income securities, stable results from real estate; weaker returns from private equity investments
- Realised gains driven by slight de-risking changes in credit allocation and regular portfolio adjustments as well as the disposal of a German real estate investment
- Stable depreciation on real estate investments; impairments mainly recognised on Ecuadorian government bonds and alternative investment funds
- Decline in valuation reserves due to significant rise in credit spreads on corporates; partially offset by decreasing minimal-risk yield curves
Ordinary investment income with minor decrease from alternative asset classes Credit profile slightly more defensive; modest re-entry into listed equities
1)
| Investment category | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Q1/2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 85% | |
| - Governments | 28% | 30% | 35% | 35% | 36% | |
| - Semi-governments | 18% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 15% | |
| - Corporates | 33% | 32% | 29% | 31% | 28% | |
| Investment grade | 28% | 27% | 25% | 26% | 24% | |
| Non-investment grade | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 2) 6% |
|
| Equities | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | |
| - Listed equity | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | |
| - Private equity | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |
| Real Assets | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | |
| Short-term investments & cash | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 42.3 | 40.5 | 42.7 | 48.2 | 48.5 |
Asset allocation Ordinary income split

1) Economic view based on market values without outstanding commitments for Private Equity and Alternative Real Estate as well as fixed-income investments of EUR 1,383.7 m. (EUR 1,429.9 m.) as at 31 March 2020
2) Of which Pfandbriefe and Covered Bonds = 71.6%
3) Before real estate-specific costs. Economic view based on market values as at 31 March 2020
Corporate exposure very well diversified Energy sector represents 5%
Sector split1)

Energy exposure, rating split1)

1) Economic view based on market values as at 31 March 2020
| Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|
| Property & Casualty reinsurance | 6 |
| Life & Health reinsurance | 11 |
| Investments | 13 |
| Outlook 2020 | 17 |
| Appendix | 23 |
Target Matrix Guidance for 2020 withdrawn due to uncertain impact from Coronavirus pandemic
| Business group | Key figures | Initial targets for 2020 | Q1/2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Return on investment1) | ~ 2.7% | 3.5% |
| Return on equity2) | ≥ 9.1% | 11.5% | |
| Earnings per share growth (y-o-y) | ≥ 5% | 2.5% | |
| Economic value creation3) | ≥ 6.1% | n.a. | |
| Solvency ratio4) | ≥ 200% | 220%-230% | |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Gross premium growth5) | 3 - 5% | 12.2% |
| Combined ratio6) | ≤ 97% | 99.8% | |
| EBIT margin7) | ≥ 10% | 9.1% | |
| xRoCA8) | ≥ 2% | n.a. | |
| Life & Health R/I | Gross premium growth9) | 3 - 5% | 0.4% |
| Value of New Business (VNB)10) | ≥ EUR 220 m. | n.a. | |
| EBIT growth11) | ≥ 5% | 6.8% | |
| xRoCA8) | ≥ 2% | n.a. |
3) Growth in economic equity + paid dividend; target: 600 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds 4) According to our internal capital model and Solvency II requirements as of 31 March 2020, preliminary
5) On average throughout the R/I cycle at constant f/x rates 6) Incl. large loss budget of EUR 975 m.
9) Organic growth only; target: annual average growth over a 3-year period, at constant f/x rates 10) Based on Solvency II principles; pre-tax reporting
11) Annual average growth over a 3-year period
1) Excl. effects from ModCo derivatives; target per 1.1.2020, valid until April 21 2020 2) After tax; target: 900 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds
- 7) EBIT/net premium earned 8) Excess return on allocated economic capital
-

Acceleration of positive 1/1 renewal trends leading to strong premium growth Risk-adjusted price increase in non-proportional business of 8.3%
860 66 150 1,076 Inforce book up for renewals New/ cancelled/ restructured Price & volume changes on renewed Inforce book after renewals Change in shares: +5.6% Change in price: +4.4% Change in volume: +7.4% +25.1% 2 Jan - 1 Apr 2020 in m. EUR
Underwriting year figures at unchanged f/x rates (31 December 2019) 1) Excluding specialty business mentioned separately
Americas1)
- Strong increase in premium in North America (+44%)
- Property business growth mainly driven by increasing primary rates and improved non-prop. pricing
- Satisfying US Cat XL renewals due to volume growth with long-term relationships at slightly better profitability compared to previous year
- Very satisfying outcome in the Caribbean and South America
APAC1) - Japan
- Cat XL
- Heavy loss burden in 2018 and 2019 led to overall strong rate increases in windstorm and flood, with loss-affected accounts achieving price increases in the range of +40% to +60%
- Maintained stable market share as terms and conditions are still not at an adequate level
- Rest: improvement of our market position due to share and volume increases
Aviation & Marine
- Aviation: positive 1/1 momentum was upheld, allowing us to increase our shares on a number of non-proportional accounts
- Marine: benefited from improved signings, increased shares and wrote a limited number of offers; reduced our shares on some unfavourable renewals
Agricultural Risks renewals still underway; premium growth thanks to new accounts
Too soon to quantify potential negative impacts due to prevailing uncertainties Coronavirus is mainly expected to impact investment result and P&C reinsurance
• Expected losses for coverage of event cancellations and business interruption, knock-on effects for D&O, E&O, US casualty claims possible • We anticipate losses in Credit & Surety. Given our well diversified portfolio and strong reserving position, we believe the loss burden should remain manageable. • Some negative effects on premium volume 2020 • IFRS and economic capital will probably decline due to an expected decrease in OCI because the negative effect from spread widening is higher than the benefits from reduced risk-free yields. • Solvency 2 ratio is expected to remain above 200% threshold in 2020 • Intend to maintain our general dividend policy • Moderate impact on mortality and morbidity claims expected to date • Pandemic and mortality exposures are subject to regular stress testing in our internal capital model: an increase in mortality rates of 5%1) within the insured population for one year would mean an additional strain in the order of EUR 130 m. for the extreme 200-year pandemic event, we hold capital of EUR 1.04 bn. • Currently only one default (Ecuador) in our portfolio. • Marginal investment in listed equities carries unrealised gains due to entry point during crisis • Decrease in ordinary investment income mainly from alternative investments and inflation linked bonds • Defaults in our credit portfolio are expected to lead to impairments (Q2-Q4) P&C Investments L&H Capitalisation Impact from Coronavirus
1) Applying a 5% mortality increase assumption to the entire population results in a significant increase in deaths among the population, e.g. additional deaths 130k in US, 30k in UK and 50k in Germany.
Reporting categories Volume1 ) Profitability depends on further development of Coronavirus-related losses P&C financial year 2020
| Regional markets |
EMEA (incl. CIS)3 ) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Americas3 ) |
||
| APAC3 ) |
||
| Structured Reinsurance and ILS | ||
| Worldwide markets |
Credit, Surety and Political Risks | |
| Facultative Reinsurance | ||
| Aviation and Marine | ||
| Agricultural Risks |
1) In EUR, development in original currencies can be different
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
3) All lines of business except those stated separately
Currently moderate impact expected from Coronavirus pandemic L&H financial year 2020 Reporting categories Volume1 )
| Financial solutions | |
|---|---|
| Longevity | |
| Mortality | |
| Morbidity |
1) In EUR, development in original currencies can be different
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
| 6 | Appendix | 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Outlook 2020 | 17 |
| 4 | Investments | 13 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 11 |
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 6 |
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |

US Casualty: Highly diversified portfolio with focus on SME / regional market
US casualty business UY2019

Our underwriting philosophy
- We avoid to write large limits
- We limit our exposure to large accounts
- We stay away from
- Fortune 1,000 excess casualty business
- Pharmaceutical business
- Stand-alone commercial auto and trucking / transportation business
- Non-standard personal auto business
- We actively identify our preferred clients and focus on core long-term relationships
- We achieve a very high diversification by line of business and by type of client (national writers, regional writers / mutuals, specialty companies)
- We always require our cedants to have a meaningful net retention
Reserving policy
- Conservative reserving with high level of IBNR contributes well to Hannover Re's reserve redundancies
- Total US casualty reserves: EUR 4.5 bn.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 Appendix |
Solvency II capital generation 2019
Solvency II eligible own funds and SCR movement analysis

Figures in m. EUR. SCR – Solvency Capital Requirements according to Solvency II internal model
1) Model changes (pre-tax) include the first-time application of dynamic volatility adjustment (impact on SCR only) and, in terms of own funds, lower future expenses estimates for P&C business offset by an increase in L&H risk margin as a result of a recalibration of US mortality risk.
2) Operating earnings and assumption changes (pre-tax). The own funds increase includes the L&H new business value of EUR 663 m. The SCR increases due to strong business growth.
3) Changes due to movements in foreign exchange rates, lower interest rates, increased credit spreads and changes in other financial market indicators (pre-tax).
4) Incl. tax payments and changes in deferred taxes
5) Incl. dividend payments, minor changes in foreseeable dividends and the issuance of another subordinated bond.
Our strategic business groups at a glance Q1/2020 vs. Q1/2019
| Property & Casualty R/I Life & Health R/I |
Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q1/2019 | Q1/2020 | Q1/2019 | Q1/2020 | Q1/2019 | Q1/2020 |
| Gross written premium | 4,394 | 4,986 | 1,979 | 1,989 | 6,373 | 6,975 |
| Change in GWP | - | +13.5% | - | +0.5% | - | +9.4% |
| Net premium earned | 2,930 | 3,338 | 1,681 | 1,753 | 4,611 | 5,091 |
| Net underwriting result | 113 | (3) | (108) | (127) | 5 | (130) |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld | 125 | 7 | (50) | (52) | 75 | (45) |
| Net investment income | 236 | 296 | 163 | 175 | 399 | 472 |
| From assets under own management | 223 | 286 | 104 | 99 | 328 | 386 |
| From funds withheld | 12 | 10 | 58 | 75 | 71 | 86 |
| Other income and expenses | (14) | 11 | 62 | 77 | 47 | 85 |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 334 | 305 | 116 | 124 | 450 | 427 |
| Financing costs | (1) | (1) | (0) | 0 | (21) | (23) |
| Net income before taxes | 334 | 304 | 116 | 124 | 429 | 403 |
| Taxes | (95) | (89) | (26) | (13) | (114) | (94) |
| Net income | 239 | 215 | 90 | 111 | 315 | 309 |
| Non-controlling interest | 20 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 |
| Group net income | 219 | 207 | 89 | 110 | 294 | 301 |
| Retention | 91.9% | 91.7% | 87.0% | 89.4% | 90.4% | 91.1% |
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 95.7% | 99.8% | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 11.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% |
| Tax ratio | 28.3% | 29.4% | 22.8% | 10.5% | 26.6% | 23.4% |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.82 | 1.72 | 0.73 | 0.91 | 2.43 | 2.49 |
Stress tests on assets under own management Unchanged focus on credit spreads
| Portfolio | Scenario | Change in market value in m. EUR |
Change in OCI before tax in m. EUR |
|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | -151 | -151 | |
| Equity (listed and private equity) | -20% | -303 -1.192 -2,313 +50% -1.404 |
-303 |
| +50 bps | -1,134 | ||
| Fixed-income securities | +100 bps | -2,199 | |
| Credit spreads | -1,388 |
High-quality fixed income book well balanced
| High-quality fixed income book well balanced Geographical allocation mainly in accordance with our broad business diversification |
Governments | Semi governments |
Corporates | Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS |
Short-term investments, cash |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 75% | 53% | 1 % |
62% | - | 46% |
| A A |
12% | 25% | 12% | 21% | - | 15% |
| A | 8 % |
8 % |
30% | 10% | - | 15% |
| BBB | 4 % |
1 % |
45% | 5 % |
- | 17% |
| <BBB | 2 % |
12% | 11% | 1 % |
- | 7 % |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 100% |
| Germany | 20% | 34% | 4 % |
22% | 21% | 18% |
| UK | 7 % |
2 % |
7 % |
10% | 11% | 7 % |
| France | 1 % |
1 % |
8 % |
6 % |
0 % |
3 % |
| GIIPS | 0 % |
1 % |
4 % |
5 % |
0 % |
2 % |
| Rest of Europe | 3 % |
13% | 15% | 23% | 2 % |
9 % |
| USA | 50% | 12% | 32% | 13% | 17% | 34% |
| Australia | 4 % |
9 % |
7 % |
11% | 7 % |
6 % |
| Asia | 11% | 14% | 8 % |
2 % |
32% | 11% |
| Rest of World | 4 % |
14% | 14% | 9 % |
11% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Total b/s values in m. EUR | 17,420 | 7,112 | 12,868 | 2,945 | 2,088 | 42,433 |
IFRS figures as at 31 March 2020
Currency allocation matches liability profile of balance sheet Strict duration-neutral strategy continued
Currency split of investments

- Modified duration of fixed-income mainly congruent with liabilities and currencies
- Increase in modified duration compared to 2018 mainly due to lower interest rates and credit spreads as well as a new hybrid bond and changed liability modelling
- GBP's higher modified duration predominantly due to life business; EUR driven by hybrid bond issuance
| Modified duration | |
|---|---|
| Q1/2020 | 5.7 |
| 2019 | 5.7 |
| 2018 | 4.8 |
| 2017 | 4.8 |
| 2016 | 5.0 |
Disclaimer
This presentation does not address the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person or legal entity. Investors should seek independent professional advice and perform their own analysis regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of our securities.
While Hannover Re has endeavoured to include in this presentation information it believes to be reliable, complete and up-todate, the company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or updated status of such information.
Some of the statements in this presentation may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on currently available information. Such statements naturally are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors such as the development of general economic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements.
This presentation serves information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of an offer or solicitation to acquire, subscribe to or dispose of, any of the securities of Hannover Re.
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