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Hannover Rueck SE — Call Transcript 2019
May 7, 2019
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Conference Call on Q1/2019 results
Hannover, 7 May 2019
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 7 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 12 |
| 4 | Investments | 14 |
| 5 | Outlook 2019 | 18 |
| 6 | Appendix | 24 |
Favourable start to 2019
RoE well above target, despite increase of EUR 1.1 bn. in shareholders' equity
Figures in EUR millions, unless otherwise stated
| 1 Group overview | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Improved result driven by increased contribution from Life & Health reinsurance as well as favourable net investment income
| Group figures in m. EUR | Q1/2018 | Q1/2019 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 5,345 | 6,373 | +19.2% |
| Net premium earned | 3,999 | 4,611 | +15.3% |
| Net underwriting result | 37 | 5 | -87.9% |
| - Incl. funds withheld | 96 | 75 | -21.6% |
| Net investment income | 391 | 399 | +1.9% |
| - From assets under own mgmt. | 333 | 328 | -1.3% |
| - From funds withheld | 59 | 71 | +20.3% |
| Other income and expenses | 5 | 47 | - |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 434 | 450 | +3.7% |
| Financing costs | (18) | (21) | +18.2% |
| Net income before taxes | 416 | 429 | +3.1% |
| Taxes | (117) | (114) | -2.2% |
| Net income | 299 | 315 | +5.2% |
| - Non-controlling interests | 26 | 21 | -18.3% |
| Group net income | 273 | 294 | +7.4% |
| Retention | 91.3% | 90.4% | |
| EBIT margin (EBIT/Net premium earned) | 10.8% | 9.8% | |
| Tax ratio | 28.1% | 26.6% | |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 2.27 | 2.43 |
| 1 Group overview | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Continued positive operating cash flow fuels growth of AuM (+6.1%) AuM growth also supported by increase in valuation reserves and currency effects
Operating cash flow in m. EUR
Assets under own management (AuM) in m. EUR
| 1 Group overview | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Shareholders' equity up by 12.2% Strong earnings and increased valuation reserves lead to all time-high
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 7 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 12 |
| 4 | Investments | 14 |
| 5 | Outlook 2019 | 18 |
| 6 | Appendix | 24 |
Good profitability supported by 25% increase in underwriting result Strong growth helped by increased demand for reinsurance
| Property & Casualty R/I in m. EUR | Q1/2018 | Q1/2019 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 3,579 | 4,394 | +22.8% |
| Net premium earned | 2,425 | 2,930 | +20.8% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
100 | 125 | +25.3% |
| Combined ratio incl. interest on funds withheld |
95.9% | 95.7% | -0.2%p |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
260 | 223 | -14.1% |
| Other income and expenses | (21) | (14) | -33.3% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 339 | 334 | -1.3% |
| Tax ratio | 23.3% | 28.3% | +5.0%p |
| Group net income | 235 | 219 | -6.7% |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.95 | 1.82 | -6.7% |
- YTD
- GWP f/x-adjusted +19.4%, growth from Structured R/I as well as traditional reinsurance
- NPE f/x-adjusted +18.0%
- Major losses of EUR 59 m. (2.0% of NPE) well below budget of EUR 175 m. for Q1/2019 but large loss budget reserved as usual
- Positive overall run-off result despite negative development from typhoon Jebi (EUR 48 m.) in 2018
- Favourable ordinary investment income; lower level of realised gains leads to decrease in net investment income
- EBIT margin of 11.4% above target of 10%
- Tax ratio slightly higher due to decreased result from low-tax subsidiaries
Large losses well below budget of EUR 175 m. for Q1/2019
Very benign large loss experience overall in Q1/2019
| Very benign large loss experience overall in Q1/2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catastrophe losses1 ) in m. EUR |
Date | Gross | Net | ||
| Flood, Australia | 26 Jan - 7 Feb | 30.5 | 25.2 | ||
| Storm "Eberhard", Germany | 10 - 11 Mar | 26.0 | 15.2 | ||
| 2 Natural catastrophes | 56.5 | 40.3 | |||
| 1 Marine claim | 14.5 | 6.9 | |||
| 1 Aviation claim | 16.6 | 11.7 | |||
| 4 Large losses | 87.6 | 59.0 |
1) Natural catastrophes and other large losses in excess of EUR 10 m. gross
Diversified portfolio delivers Combined Ratio better than target
2019: Combined Ratio vs. Target Combined Ratio EBIT margin
1) All lines of Property & Casualty reinsurance except those stated separately Lines of business ordered by GWP
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 7 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 12 |
| 4 | Investments | 14 |
| 5 | Outlook 2019 | 18 |
| 6 | Appendix | 24 |
EBIT growth of 21% outperforms premium growth of 12% US mortality business with improved result according to expectation
| Life & Health R/I in m. EUR | Q1/2018 | Q1/2019 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premium | 1,766 | 1,979 | +12.0% |
| Net premium earned | 1,574 | 1,681 | +6.7% |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld |
(4) | (50) | - |
| Net investment income from assets under own management |
72 | 104 | +44.6% |
| Other income and expenses | 28 | 62 | +122.8% |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 96 | 116 | +21.3% |
| EBIT margin | 6.1% | 6.9% | +0.8%p |
| Tax ratio | 45.9% | 22.8% | -23.1%p |
| Group net income | 51 | 89 | +73.2% |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 0.42 | 0.73 | +73.2% |
- YTD
- GWP f/x-adjusted +9.6%, mainly from Greater China
- NPE f/x-adjusted growth +4.6%
- Better than expected claims experience based on our actuarial (reboot) assumptions led to improved US mortality result but technical result impacted by losses from Australian disability business
- NII supported by favourable ordinary investment income and change in fair value of financial instruments (ModCo EUR + 5.3 m.)
- Other income and expenses is mainly the result of strong contribution from deposit accounted treaties of EUR 61 m. (Q1/2018: EUR 45 m. )
- EBIT growth of 21.3% outperforms 5% EBIT growth target
- Tax ratio at normal level; previous year impacted by US tax reform
| 1 | Group overview | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 7 | |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 12 | |
| 4 | Investments | 14 | |
| 5 | Outlook 2019 | 18 | |
| 6 | Appendix | 24 |
Favourable Return on Investment based on increased ordinary income
| in m. EUR | Q1/2018 | Q1/2019 | RoI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary investment income1) | 317 | 326 | 3.0% |
| Realised gains/losses | 49 | 22 | 0.2% |
| Impairments/appreciations & depreciations | (11) | (17) | -0.2% |
| Change in fair value of financial instruments (through P&L) | 6 | 27 | 0.3% |
| Investment expenses | (28) | (30) | -0.3% |
| NII from assets under own management | 333 | 328 | 3.0% |
| NII from funds withheld | 59 | 71 | |
| Total net investment income | 391 | 399 | |
| Unrealised gains/losses of investments | 31 Dec 18 | 31 Mar 19 |
| On-balance sheet | 500 | 1.309 |
|---|---|---|
| thereof Fixed income AFS | 91 | 799 |
| Off-balance sheet | 498 | 478 |
| thereof Fixed income HTM, L&R | 227 | 244 |
| Total | 998 | 1.786 |
1) Incl. results from associated companies
YTD
- Rise in ordinary income from fixed-income securities and again strong results from real estate and private equity investments
- Realised gains driven by an attractive disposal of a real estate investment; lower contribution from fixed-income investments due to decreased portfolio turnover
- Positive development of fair value changes through P&L (ModCo derivative EUR +5.3 m.)
- Significant rise in valuation reserves due to lower credit spreads on corporates as well as lower EUR, USD and GBP yields
Ordinary income well supported by alternative asset classes
Asset allocation1)
| Investment category | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 31 Mar 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-income securities | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
| - Governments | 26% | 28% | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| - Semi-governments | 17% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 16% |
| - Corporates | 34% | 33% | 32% | 29% | 29% |
| Investment grade | 30% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% |
| Non-investment grade | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
| - Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 2) 7% |
| Equities | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| - Listed equity | 1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| - Private equity | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Real estate/real estate funds | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Short-term investments & cash | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Total market values in bn. EUR | 39.8 | 42.3 | 40.5 | 42.7 | 45.3 |
Ordinary income split
1) Economic view based on market values without outstanding commitments for Private Equity and Alternative Real Estate as well as fixed-income investments of EUR 1,384.4 m. (EUR 1,326.4 m.) as at 31 March 2019
2) Of which Pfandbriefe and Covered Bonds = 71.2%
3) Before real estate-specific costs. Economic view based on market values as at 31 March 2019
Target Matrix All targets in Q1/2019 achieved
| Business group | Key figures | Targets for 2019 | Q1/2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Return on investment1) | ≥ 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Return on equity2) | ≥ 9.4% | 12.6% | |
| Earnings per share growth (y-o-y) | ≥ 5% | 7.4% | |
| Economic value creation3) | ≥ 6.4% | n.a. | |
| Solvency ratio4) | ≥ 200% | 246.0% | |
| Property & Casualty R/I | Gross premium growth5) | 3 - 5% | 19.4% |
| Combined ratio6) | ≤ 97% | 95.7% | |
| EBIT margin7) | ≥ 10% | 11.4% | |
| xRoCA8) | ≥ 2% | n.a. | |
| Life & Health R/I | Gross premium growth9) | 3 - 5% | 9.6% |
| Value of New Business (VNB)10) | ≥ EUR 220 m. | n.a. | |
| EBIT growth11) | ≥ 5% | 21.3% | |
| xRoCA8) | ≥ 2% | n.a. |
3) Growth in economic equity + paid dividend; target: 600 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds 4) According to our internal capital model and Solvency II requirements as of 31 December 2018
5) On average throughout the R/I cycle at constant f/x rates 6) Incl. large loss budget of EUR 875 m.
9) Organic growth only; target: annual average growth over a 3-year period, at constant f/x rates 10) Based on Solvency II principles; pre-tax reporting
11) Annual average growth over a 3-year period
1) Excl. effects from ModCo derivatives 2) After tax; target: 900 bps above 5-year average return of 10-year German government bonds
7) EBIT/net premium earned 8) Excess return on allocated economic capital
| Group overview | 2 |
|---|---|
| Property & Casualty reinsurance | 7 |
| Life & Health reinsurance | 12 |
| Investments | 14 |
| Outlook 2019 | 18 |
| Appendix | 24 |
Sustained trend since 1 Jan renewals - further growth in premium Property & Casualty treaty renewals: 2 January 2019 - 1 April 2019
| April renewals | in m. EUR | • Japan |
|---|---|---|
| Change in shares: -0.5% Change in price & volume: +6.1% |
– Cat XL: Maintained position in Japan after the series of significant events in 2018 with increasing prices (+9.5%) |
|
| 984 51 |
– Other lines of business up by 8% in premium income |
|
| 923 | 10 +6.6% |
• North America1) – Premium increased by 18%, mainly from new business opportunities based on improved pricing |
| • Cat XL worldwide – Stable renewals in cat business worldwide (outside Japan and US) |
||
| • Agricultural business: decreased premium income – Reduced shares in renewed portfolio in some cases due to selective underwriting |
||
| • Marine |
||
| – Generally flat market with stable conditions resulting in almost unchanged premium income for Hannover Re |
||
| Inforce book up for renewal |
New/ Price & volume Inforce book cancelled/ changes on after renewals restructured renewed |
– Loss-impacted treaties saw rises in premium - depending on the impact - ranging from +5% to more than +20% |
Underwriting year figures at unchanged f/x rates (31 December 2018) 1) Excluding specialty business
Guidance for 2019
Hannover Re Group
| • | Gross written premium1) | growth within a single-digit percentage range |
|---|---|---|
| • | Return on investment2) 3) | at least 2.8% |
| • | Group net income2) | in the region of EUR 1.1 bn. |
| • | ratio4) Ordinary dividend payout |
35% - 45% |
• Special dividend additional payout if profit target is reached and capitalisation remains comfortable
1) At unchanged f/x rates
2) Subject to no major distortions in capital markets and/or major losses in 2019 not exceeding the large loss budget of EUR 875 m.
3) Excluding effects from ModCo derivatives
4) Relative to group net income according to IFRS
Overall profitability above margin requirement Property & Casualty reinsurance: financial year 2019
| Lines of business | Volume1) | Profitability2) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structured reinsurance and ILS | +/- | |||
| North America3) | + | |||
| Germany3) | + | |||
| Asia, Australia, Middle East3) | +/- | |||
| Facultative reinsurance and direct | + | |||
| Cat XL | +/- | |||
| Continental Europe, Africa3) | + | |||
| Latin America, Iberian Peninsula3) | + | |||
| Credit, surety and political risks | + | |||
| UK, Ireland, London market3) | +/- | |||
| Aviation and Marine | +/- |
1) In EUR, development in original currencies can be different
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
3) All lines of business except those stated separately
Lines of business ordered by GWP
L&H business improving profitability in 2019 expected Due to significantly reduced burden from US mortality business
| Reporting categories | Volume1) | Profitability2) ++ |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial solutions | |||
| Longevity | + | ||
| Mortality | +/- | ||
| Morbidity | +/- |
1) In EUR, development in original currencies can be different
2) ++ = well above CoC; + = above CoC; +/- = CoC earned; - = below Cost of Capital (CoC)
Creating value through reinsurance is our strategic driver
- Market growth in line with or slightly below primary P&C market
- Structurally competitive due to low entrance hurdle resulting in a supply and demand imbalance; however, competition is rational because participants are disciplined
- We are confident of growing our market share top and bottom line based on our competitive advantages
P&C reinsurance L&H reinsurance Investments
- We enjoy excellent profitability on our US Financial Solutions business and good profitability on business outside the US
- US mortality had masked the positive underlying profitability in previous years
-
We expect significantly increased EBIT growth from 2019 onwards as the negative impact from US mortality legacy book has diminished significantly
-
AuM are expected to rise further due to continued positive cash flow from operations
- Return on investment should achieve targets in the medium term
- Rising interest rates will contribute to increasing ordinary investment income in the medium to long term due to higher reinvestment yields
Positioned to outperform Growing EBIT contribution Stable Net Investment Income
| 6 | Appendix | 24 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Outlook 2019 | 18 |
| 4 | Investments | 14 |
| 3 | Life & Health reinsurance | 12 |
| 2 | Property & Casualty reinsurance | 7 |
| 1 | Group overview | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 Appendix |
Solvency II capital generation: review 2018 Solvency II eligible own funds and SCR movement analysis
Figures in m. EUR. SCR – Solvency Capital Requirements according to Solvency II internal model
1) Model changes, main effect from first-time application of volatility adjustment
2) Operating earnings and assumption changes; pre-tax
3) Changes due to changes of foreign exchange rates, interest rates, credit spreads and other financial market indicators; pre-tax
4) Incl. tax payments and changes in deferred taxes
5) Incl. minor changes in foreseeable dividends
Our strategic business groups at a glance Q1/2019 vs. Q1/2018
| Property & Casualty R/I | Life & Health R/I | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in m. EUR | Q1/2018 | Q1/2019 | Q1/2018 | Q1/2019 | Q1/2018 | Q1/2019 |
| Gross written premium | 3,579 | 4,394 | 1,766 | 1,979 | 5,345 | 6,373 |
| Change in GWP | - | +22.8% | - | +12.0% | - | +19.2% |
| Net premium earned | 2,425 | 2,930 | 1,574 | 1,681 | 3,999 | 4,611 |
| Net underwriting result | 92 | 113 | (55) | (108) | 37 | 5 |
| Net underwriting result incl. funds withheld | 100 | 125 | (4) | (50) | 96 | 75 |
| Net investment income | 268 | 236 | 123 | 163 | 391 | 399 |
| From assets under own management | 260 | 223 | 72 | 104 | 333 | 328 |
| From funds withheld | 8 | 12 | 51 | 58 | 59 | 71 |
| Other income and expenses | (21) | (14) | 28 | 62 | 5 | 47 |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 339 | 334 | 96 | 116 | 434 | 450 |
| Financing costs | 0 | (1) | 0 | 0 | (18) | (21) |
| Net income before taxes | 339 | 334 | 96 | 116 | 416 | 429 |
| Taxes | (79) | (95) | (44) | (26) | (117) | (114) |
| Net income | 260 | 239 | 52 | 90 | 299 | 315 |
| Non-controlling interest | 25 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 21 |
| Group net income | 235 | 219 | 51 | 89 | 273 | 294 |
| Retention | 91.6% | 91.9% | 90.7% | 87.0% | 91.3% | 90.4% |
| Combined ratio (incl. interest on funds withheld) | 95.9% | 95.7% | 100.2% | 102.9% | 97.6% | 98.4% |
| EBIT margin (EBIT / Net premium earned) | 14.0% | 11.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| Tax ratio | 23.3% | 28.3% | 45.9% | 22.8% | 28.1% | 26.6% |
| Earnings per share (in EUR) | 1.95 | 1.82 | 0.42 | 0.73 | 2.27 | 2.43 |
Stress tests on assets under own management Unchanged focus on yields and credit spreads
| Portfolio | Scenario | Change in market value in m. EUR |
Change in OCI before tax in m. EUR |
|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | -96 | -96 | |
| Equity (listed and private equity) | -20% | -193 | -193 |
| +50 bps | -980 | -910 | |
| Fixed-income securities | +100 bps | -1,911 | -1,773 |
| Credit spreads | +50% | -660 | -651 |
High-quality fixed-income book well balanced
</bbb<>| High-quality fixed-income book well balanced Geographical allocation mainly in accordance with our broad business diversification |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governments | Semi governments |
Corporates | Pfandbriefe, Covered bonds, ABS |
Short-term investments, cash |
Total | |||||||
| AAA | 78% | 58% | 1 % |
62% | - | 48% | ||||||
| A A |
13% | 26% | 14% | 24% | - | 16% | ||||||
| A | 5 % |
8 % |
31% | 11% | - | 14% | ||||||
| BBB | 3 % |
1 % |
46% | 3 % |
- | 16% | ||||||
| <bbb< td=""> | 2 % | 7 % | 8 % | 1 % | - | 5 % |
2 % |
7 % |
8 % |
1 % |
- | 5 % |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 100% | ||||||
| Germany | 19% | 40% | 4 % |
21% | 19% | 18% | ||||||
| UK | 8 % |
3 % |
8 % |
10% | 13% | 7 % |
||||||
| France | 1 % |
2 % |
8 % |
5 % |
0 % |
4 % |
||||||
| GIIPS | 1 % |
1 % |
4 % |
5 % |
0 % |
2 % |
||||||
| Rest of Europe | 2 % |
13% | 15% | 22% | 4 % |
10% | ||||||
| USA | 54% | 9 % |
34% | 13% | 16% | 35% | ||||||
| Australia | 3 % |
11% | 8 % |
12% | 7 % |
7 % |
||||||
| Asia | 8 % |
10% | 7 % |
1 % |
26% | 8 % |
||||||
| Rest of World | 4 % |
13% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 10% | ||||||
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||||
| Total b/s values in m. EUR | 15,702 | 7,114 | 12,314 | 3,205 | 1,762 | 40,097 |
IFRS figures as at 31 March 2019
Currency allocation matches liability profile of balance sheet Duration-neutral strategy continued
Currency split of investments
- Modified duration of fixed-income mainly congruent with liabilities and currencies
- GBP's higher modified duration predominantly due to life business
| Modified duration | |
|---|---|
| Q1/2019 | 4.9 |
| 2018 | 4.8 |
| 2017 | 4.8 |
| 2016 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 |
| 2014 | 4.6 |
Disclaimer
This presentation does not address the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person or legal entity. Investors should seek independent professional advice and perform their own analysis regarding the appropriateness of investing in any of our securities.
While Hannover Re has endeavoured to include in this presentation information it believes to be reliable, complete and up-todate, the company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or updated status of such information.
Some of the statements in this presentation may be forward-looking statements or statements of future expectations based on currently available information. Such statements naturally are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors such as the development of general economic conditions, future market conditions, unusual catastrophic loss events, changes in the capital markets and other circumstances may cause the actual events or results to be materially different from those anticipated by such statements.
This presentation serves information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of an offer or solicitation to acquire, subscribe to or dispose of, any of the securities of Hannover Re.
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