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GRAINCORP LIMITED — Regulatory Filings 2014
Aug 31, 2014
65001_rns_2014-08-31_a7159014-a2cb-4d63-a012-bb6bc5ae6283.pdf
Regulatory Filings
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1 September 2014
The Manager Company Announcements Office ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via Market Announcements Platform
Dear Sir/Madam,
GrainCorp Limited (ASX: GNC)
Investor Presentation
The attached Investor Presentation will be used by GrainCorp for the purpose of a series of planned investor meetings in the USA and Asia during September.
The presentation includes early commentary regarding the next winter crop which is relevant to GrainCorp’s 2015 financial year.
Yours sincerely,
Gregory Greer Company Secretary
GrainCorp Limited
Level 28, 175 Liverpool Street Sydney NSW 2000 PO Box A268 Sydney South NSW 1235 T 02 9325 9100 F 02 9325 9180
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ABN 60 057 186 035
graincorp.com.au
Investor Presentation September 2014
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GrainCorp is Australia’s leading agribusiness
Integrated Business Model with an international “end-to-end” grain supply chain connecting consumers to growers
Unique portfolio of local storage and logistics assets and local and international downstream processing assets linked by a global Marketing platform
Global exposure to attractive grain industry fundamentals with strong demand growth for grain and processed grain coupled with origination advantages
Strategic initiatives aimed at reducing variability and delivering substantial increase in underlying EBITDA by end FY16increase in underlying EBITDA by end FY16 Track record delivering corporate objectives and strategy execution
Strategic initiatives aimed at reducing variability and delivering substantial increase in underlying EBITDA by end FY16increase in underlying EBITDA by end FY16
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Delivering on our corporate objectives
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1 2 3
Improving Managing Delivering
returns variability growth
Return on Equity % EBITDA by segment [(1)] EBITDA - $M
414
395
350
Allied
6%
212
Oils
160
17%
S&L
41%
23%MaltMalt Dividends – cents per share
Marketing
13%
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414
395
350
Allied
6%
212
Oils
160
17%
S&L
41%
23%MaltMalt Dividends – cents per share
Marketing
13%
Majority of EBITDA growth
from non-S&L businesses
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- FY13 EBITDA.
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Strength of our integrated business model
-
→
-
Wheat, barley, canola representing 35% of global traded grains and oilseeds
-
Three core • Focus on “drier climate” grains where
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grains we have a comparative advantage through origination, freight differentials and technical expertise
-
“End to end” grain supply chain presence
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Three • Create and capture value in our core
-
integrated grains along the grain chain, with
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grain deep insight into consumer
-
activities requirements in these grains
-
Australasia, North America and →
-
Europe supply over 50% of global trade in our core grains
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Three
-
operating
-
geographies
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Provide market insight and price risk management with multi-origin capability to our consumers
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Global grains traded [(1)]
Other
8% Wheat
30%
Corn
23%
Barley
3%
Canola
Sorghu 2%
Soybean m
32%
2%
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Marketing
Storage &
Processing
Logistics
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4
- Excludes rice.
Diversification strategy and targeted investment to manage variability and deliver growth
Retrospective proforma EBITDA[(1)] ($M)
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Post 2008 single Earnings initiatives
wheat desk included progressively
removal from FY13
Storage &
Logistics [(2)]
Marketing [(3)]
Majority of EBITDA
Malt /Flour [(4)]
growth from non-
S&L businesses
Oils [(5)]
5-year
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Average
Country
9.6mmt 7.4mmt 14.9mmt 12.2mmt 10.4mmt 10.9mmt
Receivals
Grain
5.2mmt 3.5mmt 8.1mmt 10.6mmt 8.3mmt 7.1mmt
Exports
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-
EBITDA for all segments except Allied Mills which is 60% share of NPAT.
-
Includes Country & Logistics, Ports and Corporate (excludes discontinued businesses).
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Marketing Statutory EBITDA.
-
GrainCorp 60% share of Allied Mills NPAT plus Malt EBITDA actual for FY10 to FY12 and prior FY09 EBITDA.
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Oils EBITDA FY09 to FY12 based on prior Gardner Smith year ended 31 March (pro forma for acquisitions, excluding grain trading) and prior Integro Foods year ended 30 June (pre synergies). FY13 EBITDA year ended 30 September 2013.
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Our values and focus on safety
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Values Safety Performance – LTIFR [(1)]
• Rolling 12 month average LTIFR [(1)] 43% lower
than same time last year (as at end March)
•
Lead indicators focusing on near miss
reporting, line leadership reviews and
significant risk reviews are improving for all
business units
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- Measured as Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (“LTIFR”) calculated as the number of Lost Time Injuries per million hours worked. Includes permanent and casual employees and GrainCorp controlled contractors.
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GrainCorp journey
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 – 2016
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Shareholding
Creation of Malt Creation of Strategic
structure and market Malt acquisition
GrainCorp Malt acquisitions GrainCorp Oils initiatives
deregulation
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Removal of Grain • Acquisition of • Acquisition of • Acquisition of Schill • Acquisition of • Gamechangers Grower’s United Malt Brewcraft USA Malz expands Gardner Smith and initiatives across Foundation Share Holdings creating a adding capacity to malting presence Integro Foods Storage & Logistics,
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• Removal of new business unit GrainCorp Malt’s into Germany creating a new Marketing and Malt Australian bulk GrainCorp Malt - ability to service • Acquisition of assets business unit • Asset Optimisation wheat export the fourth largest the craft brewing of Kirin Malt GrainCorp Oils, initiatives in Oils monopoly single commercial malt market in North Australia expands Australia’s leading and Storage & desk GrainCorp producer in the America malting presence integrated edible Logistics receives bulk wheat world. into Western oils business with • Port Flexibility export accreditation • Company Australia crushing plants, LTAs and diversified to now • Acquisition of edible oil refining anticipated include malt Norton Organics in facilities and bulk regulation changes processing plants in USA, Canada, UK, UK liquid terminalsAustralia and New in • Regeneration to Germany and Zealand reduce network complexity and
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Australia supply chain cost
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$51M EBITDA Growth $395M[FY13]
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<$400M Market Capitalisation ~$2B[Sep-14]
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Grain storage and logistics assets and capabilities
Our eastern Australia grain network
Assets and capabilities
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Project Regeneration announced June 2014 focussed investment to reduce complexity and better serve customer – targeting $5/t reduced rail costs
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Investment in network a necessary response to increasing port capacity in eastern Australia.
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Approximately 180 upcountry receival sites with ~20mmt of storage capacity
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7 bulk ports with ~15mmt elevation capacity
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• 2 packing facilities handling containerised grain exports
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Manage 12+ grain trains with more than 4mmt rail freight capacity, including 4 company owned trains
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Largest bulk exporter of eastern Australian grain
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• 150+ active grain buyers competing in our network
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→
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Infrastructure network cannot be easily replicated replacement value substantially greater than book value
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Infrastructure presence supported and linked by domestic and international grain Marketing capability
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Global portfolio of grain processing and complementary facilities
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Produce ~35% of Australia’s malt
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Produce ~35% of Australia's flour[(1)]
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Produce ~40% of Australia’s canola oil and ~40% of Australasia’s refined edible oil
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Import and export ~40% of Australasia’s edible oil through 12 bulk liquid terminals
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World’s 4[th] largest commercial maltster with ~1.4mmt capacity across 17 plants → the largest maltster in Canada (~50% share) and a leading malster in UK, USA and Germany
Our international portfolio of processing and complementary assets
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UK /
Germany
Canada / US
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1.Through our 60% JV share of Allied
Mills.
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Australia / China
New Zealand
Malting facility
Oilseed crushing facility
Edible oil refining facility
Flour milling facility [(1)]
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Bulk liquid terminal GrainCorp Marketing presence
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Strategic initiatives projects announced and underway
Earnings growth Gamechangers Asset Optimisation Port Flexibility Project Regeneration[(1)] Reshape Localised Oils network 3 Year Port Storage & Logistics country cluster optimisation Protocol network operation End-to-end Bulk liquid Ports Code of Rail loading Marketing export terminals growth Conduct improvements logistics Malt S&L non-grain LTAs introduced; Plan announced in June 2014. Good progress on Gamechangers; Oils Ports code of Good progress on reshaping synergies on track; Oils network conduct network and export logistics optimisation and bulk liquid terminals expected in offering and designing rail projects underway September 2014. loading.
$515M capex commitment from FY12
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1.Project Regeneration is expected to be EPS neutral in the near term in a normal season.
Capex supporting safety, network efficiencies and strategic initiatives
– Capex[(1)] $M
Depreciation & Amortisation – $M
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141 119
122
112
106 91
78
72
62
66
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Stay-in-business capex increased from FY12 due to inclusion of Oils
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Growth capex reflective of investment to progress growth initiatives
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Depreciation & amortisation higher from FY12 due to inclusion of Oils and recent capex program
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FY14 capex will include ~$90M to $110M growth capex associated with progressing our earnings growth initiatives (approximately half in Oils network optimisation and bulk liquid terminals projects announced in February 2014)
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Excluding acquisitions.
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Strong and flexible balance sheet
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–
Core Debt $M GrainCorp Oils
acquisition
Schill Malz
acquisition Short-term
debt less
9
Marketing
and Oils
inventories
26
43
Long-term
debt
Cash
FY12
FY11 HY12 FY12 HY13 [(4)] FY13 HY14
Pro forma [(3)]
9 218 16 320 415 411 422 Core Debt [(1)]
1% 13% 1% 16% 20% 19% 19% Core Gearing [(2)]
Core Debt /
0.05x 0.53x 0.04x 0.67x 0.99x 1.04x 1.26x
EBITDA
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• HY14 Core Debt[(1)] of $422M
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Flexible balance sheet → Core Gearing of 19% (in line with strategic target of <25%), debt facilities matching with asset life
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Core Debt = Total Debt less Cash less Marketing and Oils grain and oilseed inventory.
-
Core Gearing = Core Debt / (Core Debt plus Equity).
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FY12 Pro forma Core Debt / EBITDA includes Oils acquisition debt and FY12 EBITDA as detailed in the ASX Announcement dated 28 August 2012. 4. HY EBITDA based on last twelve months (“LTM”) as at Mar-13. Includes Oils LTM.
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Other Updates
CEO Announcement
Ports Flexibility
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Announcement of Mark Palmquist as Managing Director and CEO in August 2014.
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Commencing 1 October 2014.
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Ports mandatory code of conduct expected to be released by the Department of Agriculture in September 2014.
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GrainCorp to continue seeking further deregulation of its grain port terminals where competition exists.
Project Regeneration
Next Winter Crop
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Project announced in June 2014 - additional $200m investment over three years.
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Good progress implementing the plan closing sites, cluster meetings complete, ~80 FTE reduction and designing rail loading improvements.
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“ExportDirect” and network of around 180 sites to be open for coming harvest.
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Expected to be EPS neutral in the near term in a normal season.
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Winter crop of 16.4mmt[(1)] currently forecast (does not include summer crop forecast) which is approximately an average crop.
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However, winter crop profile expected to be heavily skewed to southern regions where competition is greater, similar to FY14.
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Winter crop dependent on weather during next few months.
-
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See details in Appendices.
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Eastern Australia’s wheat, barley and canola production estimates, using the average of Australian Crop Forecasters’ August 2014 report and ABARES June 2014 report. (Does not include summer crop forecast.)
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Questions
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Appendices
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Global exposure to attractive grain industry fundamentals
Global grain demand
Global malt demand
Global canola oil demand
- Australian canola oil exports have trebled in the past 10 years, in line with global trade growth
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Global malt export trade has doubled in the past 40 years
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Global grain trade has doubled in the past 40 years
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Demand growth to 2020 expected to be driven by developing world
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Global trade of our core grains expected to double by 2050, driven by Middle East and North Africa (“MENA”), eastern Africa and Asia
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Global demand growth supported by changing consumer preferences
East and North Africa • Supported by strong global (“MENA”), eastern Africa demand for scotch whisky • Strong demand from Asia and Asia Global Grain Trade[(1)] Global Malt Trade[(2)] Global Canola Oil Trade[(3)] Population (billion) Global (mmt) Barley & canola trade (mmt) Rest of World (mmt) Wheat trade (mmt) Asia & Africa (mmt)
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- Source: GrainCorp estimates based on UN (Population Revisions 2010) and FAO. 2. Source: USDA and IGC. 3. Source: USDA. kmt is thousand metric tonnes.
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Origination advantages to supply global demand growth markets
Wheat Imports to 2050[(1)]
Demand growth in proximate regions
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Current wheat imports (mmt)
Wheat import growth to 2050 (mmt)
Wheat import growth to 2050 (%)
98%
200% 90%
140%
MENA Sub-Saharan Sub- Asia (ex-
Africa Continent China)
Middle
North Africa
East
Asia
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
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Australia has freight advantages to importdependent and growth markets for grain and processed grains (malt and canola oil)
-
For example Middle East, Africa and Asia expected to account for ~85% of the ~110mmt increase in global wheat trade to 2050
Australian grain quality advantages
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Eastern Australia produces high quality grain grades highly sought in global growth regions
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Australian wheat (and barley) has strong quality advantages such as:
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Wheat → dry, clean, mid-high protein, white with high flour extraction. Ideal for Asian noodles and Arabian flat breads
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→
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Barley dry, clean with desirable characteristics. Ideal for Chinese malt and MENA feed markets
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- Sources: USDA, US Wheat Associates.
Project Regeneration – Overview
| Project Overview |
• Additional $200m(1) investment in the Storage & Logistics network over three years – upgrade of rail capability at primary sites and 3 new sites • Focus on~180upcountry receival sites with storage capacity of~20mmt |
|---|---|
| Rationale | • Efficient and more reliable logistics for export grain • Strengthen Storage & Logistics network by reducing cost, simplifying operations and focusing investment on fewer sites • Enhancing the attractiveness of our network for growers, export customers and |
| Focused | domestic customers - targeting$5/treduced rail costs • Improve competitiveness in an evolving eastern Australia competitive landscape 1. Reshaping the country network 2. Localised cluster operation 1 2 |
| investment | 3. End-to-end export logistics offering 3 4 |
| Timing | 4. Rail loading improvements • Reshaping network, cluster operations and logistics model in place for next harvest optimal time given low carry-out volumes into FY15 • Funding for sidings – track owner support to upgrade |
| Other | • To be funded from cashflow and debt facilities. Incremental ~$15m capex in FY14 • Expected to be EPS neutral in the near term in a normal season • Rail capability upgrades – over next three years (ie FY14 – FY16) |
- Includes Restructuring costs of $4m to be reported as significant item in FY14 earnings
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Reducing supply chain cost
1. Reshaping the country network
2. Localised cluster operations
Challenge
Response
Costly supply chain
-
~180 sites receive 90% of all delivered grain
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Long tail of high cost smaller sites
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Low volume sites
-
Average site cost is 50% higher
-
Average receivals is <10K tonnes
Reconfigure the network to ~180 sites
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Primary sites are export focused on rail
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Major sites focused on domestic outload
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Flex sites to meet segregation requirements
Localised cluster operations
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Network of 34 clusters
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New country structure linked to clusters
Outcome
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Simplified and more efficient network to retain delivered grain
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Lower operating costs - reduction of ~80 full time roles
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Resources concentrated on fewer sites (grain handling equipment, employees, future stay-inbusiness capex)
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Reducing supply chain complexity
3. End-to-end export logistics offering
4. Rail Loading upgrades
Challenge
Response
Complex supply chain
-
Fragmented and inefficient logistics
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grain lost to road and reduced market share
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Only 11 sites can quickly handle and load an export unit train
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most export trains shunted across 2-3 sites
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Upgrading rail capability at 68 primary sites
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3 new primary sites
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New rail outloading bins and equipment
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Siding extensions
End-to-end logistics offering – “ExportDirect”
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Bundled handling and transport for export grain simplified and more reliable export logistics
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Optimal positioning of grain for export rail outload or domestic rail and road outload
Outcome
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Faster train cycle times point-to-point unit trains of 40+ wagons loaded at primary sites
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Potential to return up to 1mmt to rail
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Network and operating model
Our eastern Australia grain network
Network Clusters & “ExportDirect”
-
Buyers can compete for export or domestic grain at any site
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Swapping grain between sites to:
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maximise export rail task from primary sites
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move rail or road grain from the most suitable site
Bundled handling and transport
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Rail capability investment
Investment in Primary sites
| • Emerald area • Dalby area • Wyalong area New Sites |
Modular assets 1. Rail bin loaders 2. Fast elevators 3. Pre-position bin Update assets • Speed elevators • Convert bins • New systems Track owner support required • Siding extension • Crossovers Brownfield Rail Siding Greenfield |
|---|---|
| Conceptual only |
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Eastern Australia competitive landscape
| Upcountry Storage | Capacity |
|---|---|
| GrainCorp | ~20mmt |
| Competitors | ~10mmt |
| On-farm | ~10mmt |
| Total | ~40mmt |
| Production / Exports | |
| Eastern Australia grain production |
~18mmt |
| Domestic demand | ~10mmt |
| Exportable surplus | ~8mmt |
| Grain Export | Capacity |
|---|---|
| GrainCorp | ~15.0mmt |
| Competitors(1) | ~5.0mmt |
| Container exports | ~3.5mmt |
| Total | ~23.5mmt |
QLD On farm storage Other bulk handlers Domestic demand
NSW Other bulk handlers On farm storage Domestic demand
Upcountry Storage
Competitors
Ports
GrainCorp Port (all regulated) Competing Port (regulated) Competing Port (unregulated) Announced Port (unregulated)
VIC Other bulk handlers On farm storage Domestic demand
- Including competing ports announced at Port Kembla and Geelong.
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