GRAINCORP LIMITED — Regulatory Filings 2012

May 21, 2012

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Company announcement

GrainCorp Limited ABN 60 057 186 035

Date: 22 May, 2012 To: The Manager Announcements Company announcements office

PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

GRAINCORP INVESTOR PRESENTATION FOR THE

HALF YEAR ENDED 31 MARCH 2012

Results Release Presentation

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Andrew Horne Company Secretary

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GrainCorp Limited Level 26, 175 Liverpool Street, Sydney NSW 2000 PO Box A268, SydneySouth NSW 1235 Telephone: (02) 9325 9100 Facsimile: (02) 9325 9180 www.graincorp.com.au

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22 May 2012
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(Managing Director and CEO)
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2012 HALF YEAR RESULTS

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Agenda

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• Financial Results

• Business Performance

• Dividend

• Guidance and Operational Update

• Strategy pU date

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• 2 -

Earnings higher due to strong grain volumes

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• Earnings higher to $235M EBITDA and $134M Statutory NPAT

• NPAT in this presentation excludes a $12M Significant Item for Malt defined benefit plan adjustment → $122M NPAT

• Higher Grains[(1)] earnings due to:

• Strong grain volumes (carry-in, receivals, exports and marketing) and lower variable harvest receival costs

• Higher Processing[(2)] earnings due to:

• V o ume grow l th an d a dditi ona va ue cap ure l l t d th roug h gra n procuremen , i t utility cost savings and value add activities

• • Low gearing

• Fully franked interim dividend per share of $0.15 plus $0.15 special

• FY12 earnings guidance upgrade

(1) Includes Country & Logistics, Ports and Marketing (2) Includes Malt and Allied Mills

• 3 -

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FINANCIAL RESULTS

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Earnings higher in a record half year

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EBITDA [(1)] - $M NPAT - $M
400 200
Fiscal 1H Fiscal 2H Fiscal 1H Fiscal 2H
175
350
150
300
125 84
177
250
100
200
75
150 100 28 122
79 235 50 31 88
100
173 25 53
32
50 19 82 112 $M0 (7)
32 (13)
$M0 (25)
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Operating Cash Flow - $M Core Debt ($M) and Core Gearing % [(2)]
350 Fiscal 1H Fiscal 2H 350 Core Debt ($M) Core Gearing % 60%
300
300
50%
250
171 250
200 40%
150 132 200
30%
100
166 150
134 275 278
50 80 227 219 20%
42 100
$M0
(50) (16) (57) 50 121 10%
(100) $M0 0%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
HY08 HY09 HY10 HY11 HY12
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(1) Includes 60% JV share of Allied Mills NPAT (2) Core Debt = Total Debt less Cash less grain Marketing inventory. Core Gearing = Core Debt / (Core Debt + Equity)

• 5 -

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Earnings driven by record carry-in and strong receival and export volumes

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HY11 to HY12 Earnings Bridge - $M

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2 2
2
4
7
6
22
15
Higher due to Malt
sales growth and
34 additional value
captured
122
Higher due to record carry-in,
88 large crop and export volumes
and effective customer service
HY11 NPATCountry & LogisticsHY11 Country & PortsPorts MarketingMarketing MaltMalt Allied MillsAllied Corporate & BU Support D&ACorporate D&A Net InterestNet TaxTax [(2)] HY12 NPATHY12
NPAT Logistics Mills [(1)] Interest NPAT
EBITDA
HY12 ($M) 73 74 38 59 4 (13) (43) (16) (54) 122
HY11 [(3)] ($ M ) 39 52 34 57 2 ( 11 ) ( 36 ) ( 10 ) ( 39 ) 88
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• (1) 60% share of NPAT

• (2) Excludes tax associated with Significant Item for Malt defined benefit plan adjustment

(3) Segment EBITDA adjusted from prior year to reflect decentralisation of Business Unit Support Costs. See Appendix for Corporate Costs reconciliation

• 6 -

Debt and inventory in line with strategy

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Debt - $M

Grain Inventory - $M

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750 675
Core Debt ($M)(1) Net Debt(2) Grain Marketing inventory Malting barley inventory
675
600
89
600
525
525
450 450 113
375 756 375 120
300 601 561 606 300
528
225 445 225 79 91
150 275 289 278 301 239 227 331 219 150 326 283 322 387
75
121
32 52 9 75 156 180 188
$M0
(53) 85
(75) $M0
HY08 FY08 HY09 FY09 HY10 FY10 HY11 FY11 HY12 HY08 FY08 HY09 FY09 HY10 FY10 HY11 FY11 HY12
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• Core Debt unchan ed o due to ac uisition of Schill Malz and dividend and tax aid g y y q p

• Marketing inventory lower year on year due to lower crop size

• Maltin barle inventor in line with seasonal re uirements g y y q

• (1) Core Debt = Total Debt less Cash less grain Marketing inventory (2) Net Debt is Total Debt less Cash

• 7 -

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Capex supports strategic initiatives

	Capex - $M	Capex - $M	Capex - $M			Grains and	Grains and
					Ml	Grains and
100 125 150	Grains and Corporate Malt 760			$M	at	Corporate
		Grains and Corporate Malt 760
					HY12 HY11	HY12 HY11
				Depreciation	13 8	22 20
50 75		54 66 15		Amortisation	6 7	2 1
				Total D&A	19 15	24 21
				Stay-in-business capex	10 5	19 20
0 25 $M		31 31 52 56 38		Investment capex	5 31	19 12
				Capex(1)	15 36	38 32

• Grains’ investment ca ex hi her due to rollout of strate ic initiatives p g g

• Malt investment capex lower due to completion of Pinkenba development in FY11

• FY12 ca p ex forecast of ~ $ 135M → ~ $ 60M sta y -in-business and ~ $ 75M investment

(1) Excludes acquisitions

• 8 -

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BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

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Earnings from a portfolio of grain related businesses

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	Revenue	EBITDA
	$M HY12 HY11
	Ports 128 90 74 52 Marketing 937 664 38 34
	Malt 468 417 59 57 Allied Mills(1) - - 4 2
	(2) Corporate Costs - - (13) (11) Intercompany Eliminations (158) (106) - -
	Total 1,686 1,349 235 173

(1) 60% share of NPAT (2) See Appendix for reconciliation and year-on-year comparison

• 10 -

Strong grain throughput driven by carry-in, receivals and exports

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• Throu h ut hi her due to record carr -in and stron receivals and ex orts g p g y g p

• 63% of total grain production[(1)] handled by GrainCorp year to date → country and ports

Earnings driver(mmt) HY12HY11	Comments
Grain carry-in(1-Oct) 6.0 2.6 • Gr • Re Country network receivals 11.6 14.4 • St	ain stored at period start cord FY12 carry-in due to large FY11 crop rong grain production of 20.6mmt(1)
YT • Grain exports handled 5.0 3.2 • La • St Non-grain exports handled 07 07 • Inc	D t i l h f i d ti 56% coun ry rece va s s are o gra n pro uc on rge export task due to strong demand and record carry-in rong receivals from ex-farm and other bulk handlers ludes woodchips, mineral sands and fertiliser
. . Grain carry-out(31-Mar) 11.1 12.4 • Gr	ain stored at period end
Throughput(2) 17.8 14.7 • Av Domestic grain outload 2.9 2.3 • Hi	g of country sites in and out, and ports grain and non-grain gher share of supply to domestic grain market
Grain received at port 1.4 0.9 • Gr • Inc	ain received direct at port ex-farm and other bulk handlers reased total share of grain production from 56% to 63% YTD

(1) ABARES’ eastern Australia wheat, barley, canola and sorghum production estimates

(2) Average Country & Logistics grain inload and outload + Ports grain and non-grain exports handled

• 11 -

Country & Logistics – higher earnings due to strong throughput volumes

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$ M HY12 HY11
Revenue 311 284
EBITDA 73 39
EBIT 57 26
Capital Expenditure 27 23
Grain Receivals and Market Share [(1)]
16 80%
Carry‐in mmt (LHS)
14 Country Receivals mmt (LHS) 70%
Market share % at 31 Mar (RHS)
12 60%
10 50%
8 40%
14.4
6 11.6 30%
8.8
4 20%
7.0
6.0
2 4.6 10%
2.2 2.9 2.6
mmt0 1.2 0%
HY08 HY09 HY10 HY11 HY12
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• Record carry-in of 6.0mmt → higher storage and outload revenues

• Strong grain receivals (10.9mmt winter and 0 . 7mmt summer)

• Lower harvest related costs due to less disrupted harvest

• Accelerated safety expenditure and additional network upgrade

• Focus on e ff ective customer service:

• Additional trains contracted plus rail and road productivity improvements

• Higher capex to manage record carry-in and improve customer service

(1) Receivals market share of ABARES’ eastern Australia wheat, barley, canola and sorghum production estimates

• 12 -

Ports – record elevations due to carry-in and effective customer service

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$ M HY12 HY11
Revenue 128 90
EBITDA 74 52
EBIT 66 46
Capital Expenditure 7 6
GrainCorp Exports Handled [(1)] – mmt
6
5 Grain Non‐grain
4
3
5.0
2
3.2
1 1.9
1 5.
1.0
0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
mmt0
HY08 HY09 HY10 HY11 HY12
(1) Includes bulk grain elevation and containers
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• Record 5.0mmt grain exports handled → 4.8mmt bulk and 0.2mmt containers

• Effective customer service

• 1 . 4mmt grain receivals direct to port

• from non-GrainCorp sites

• Additional trains contracted

• Maintained exports during northern and southern NSW floods

• 0.6mmt additional elevation capacity announced for FY13

• 0.7mmt non-grain exports plus 0.2mmt non-grain imports handled

• 13 -

Marketing – strong first half earnings

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$ M	HY12	HY11
Revenue	937	664
EBITDA	38	34
Interest expense	(11)	(9)
PBT	27	25
Marketing inventory	387	528

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Tonnes Delivered [(1)] – mmt
4.0
3 5.
3.0
2.5
2 0. 3.9
1.5 2.9
1.0 1.8 2.1 1.9
0 5.
mmt0.0
HY08 HY09 HY10 HY11 HY12
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• Higher revenue due to strong marketing volumes → 2.1mmt domestic and 1.8mmt exports

• FY12 earnings front ended to first half

• • Marketing inventory of $387M

• Mark to market unrealised $14M gain → majority of physical volumes to be delivered in second half

• ~60% of marketed grain acquired from growers and ~90% sold to end users

• International offices established in Hamburg (Germany) and Calgary (Canada) and now operational

(1) Including bulk and containers

• 14 -

Malt – lower processing margins offset by higher volumes and value add activities

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$ M	HY12	HY11
Revenue	468	417
EBITDA(1)	59	57
EBIT	40	42
Capital Expenditure	15	36

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Malt sales – kmt [(2)]
800
700
600
500
400
670
300
488 483
200
100
kmt0
HY10 HY11 HY12
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• L ower process ng marg ns o i i ff se t b y vo ume grow l th an d a dditi ona va ue cap ure l l t d from barley procurement, utility cost savings and global portfolio proposition

• Schill Malz ac uisition and Pinkenba develo ment add 190kt and 86kt annual q p

• capacity respectively, partially offset by Thornleigh closure by end Jun-12 (25kt)

(1) Includes Port of Vancouver compensation receipts of $5.0M in HY12 and $7.1M in HY11 (2) Thousand metric tonnes. HY10 reflects Like Six Months (as business acquired in November 2009)

• 15 -

Allied Mills – higher earnings and capacity replacement announced

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$ M60% JV h HY12 HY11		60% Net Asset Value - $M	60% Net Asset Value - $M	60% Net Asset Value - $M
( sare) EBITDA 12 7 Equity Profit 4 2	200 150
Shareholder loan interest received 1 1 Net Asset Value(1) 148 137	50 100		112 121 131 137 148
	0 $M

• Hi h i f l dd i n iti a ti ves an d ti ht C os o t f G oo d t g er earn ngs rom va ue a g s managemen

• (including grain)

• Re lacement of Toowoomba millin ca acit closed due to floodin throu h p g p y ( g) g

• expansion of existing Tennyson (Brisbane) mill → renewed network scale at reduced operating cost

• Tennyson Development Application approved and majority of funding sourced from insurance proceeds (balance from debt)

(1) HY12 includes 60% of Shareholders’ Equity ($131M) and Shareholder Loan ($19M)

• 16 -

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Safety – “Zero Harm – Safe for Life”

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• Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate[(1)] L ower n ury requency ra e i j f t • Step Change Strategy being im lemented p

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16
•
Step Change Strategy being
15
im lemented
p
14
•
13 Focus on improving safety behaviours
and culture
12
14.5
11 •
Target improved lead indicators such
12.4
10
11.7 11.7 as Safety Toolbox Talks, Near Miss
9 10.2 Reporting and training
8
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 HY12
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(1) Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate calculated as the number of Lost Time Injuries per million hours worked

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DIVIDEND

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Higher dividends including Special

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Dividends and Earnings Payout Ratio[(1)]

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100 Interim and Final DPS (LHS) 100%
Special DPS (LHS)
Earnings Payout ratio % (RHS)
80 80%
60 60%
25
40 40%
5
20 20%
30
25
7
0 0%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
share
cents per
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• HY12 fully franked dividends of $0.15 interim and $0.15 special

• HY12 NPAT payout ratio of 49% , or 44% of Statutory NPAT

• HY12 dividend dates

• Ex-dividend date: 2 July 2012

• Record date: 6 July 2012

  • Payment date: 20 July 2012

• Policy to pay 40-60% of NPAT through the business cycle

• Targeting a dividend each year

• Flex via Special dividend

(1) DPS (Dividend Per Share) divided by EPS (Earnings Per Share) Historic dividends not adjusted for rights issue

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GUIDANCE AND OPERATIONAL UPDATE

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FY12 guidance – Storage & Logistics and Malt business drivers

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Storage & Logistics Malt
Country & Logistics Ports
• • •
Receivals Direct Receivals [(1)] Sales
→~12.0mmt →~2.5mmt →~1.35mmt
• •
Domestic outload Grain exports •
EBITDA per tonne [(2)]
→~ 6.0mmt →~ 10.0mmt
→~$80
• •
Carry-out Non-grain exports
→~4.5mmt →~1.5mmt
• • •
Ex-farm post harvest Direct to port receivals Level of AUD and
receivals • CAD FX
Rail and road freight
• •
Central QLD sorghum availability Barley procurement
receivals • Booking execution rate
uidance
G
bles
Varia
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(1) Grain received direct at port ex-farm and other bulk handlers (2) Excludes ~$5.0M Port of Vancouver compensation receipt

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FY12 guidance – GrainCorp earnings

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EBITDA NPAT • • EBITDA NPAT (excluding Significant Items) →$385-415M →$185-205M • Statutory NPAT →$200-220M

• Statutory NPAT (including Significant Items) →$200-220M

• Excludes Marketin interest g expense of ~$20M → i.e guidance reflects Statutory EBITDA • Includes 60% share of Allied Mills NPAT

• De p reciation & Amortisation ~$85M

• • Tax ~30%

• • ~$17M Significant Items → Malt defined ~

• benefit plan adjustment ( $12M) and Allied Mills Toowoomba mill insurance proceeds (~$5M)

• 22 -

Grains update

FY12 O erational U date p p

Country & Logistics

• Year-To-Date[(1)] country receivals 11 . 9mmt

• Accelerating safety expenditure and additional network upgrade

Ports

• Year-To-Date grain elevations 6.1mmt

---

• Year To Go[(2)] Shipping Stem grain elevation bookings 4.6mmt

Marketing

• Domestic and export sale programs in line with expectation

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FY13 Outlook

• Forecast ~4.5mmt grain carry-in

• Additional rail capacity maintained

• 0 . 6 t t it dd e d mm expor capac y a

• FY13 first quarter Shipping Stem opened early → 2.4mmt booked

• Winter crop planting well progressed

• Good sub soil moisture profile, but planting rain sought

• ACF[(3)] predict 18.3mmt eastern Australia wheat, barley and canola crop , based on:

• Area 9.4m Ha (2% lower yoy)

• Yield 1.94mt/Ha (6% higher yoy)

(1) Reflects 30 September 2011 to 20 May 2012 (2) Reflects 21 May 2012 to 30 September 2012 (3) Australian Crop Forecasters May 2012

• 23 -

Malt update

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FY12 O erational U date p p

FY13 Outlook

• Committed YTD sales 1.3mmt → ~95% of FY12 sales guidance

• Strong portfolio capacity utilisation

• Leveraging competitive strengths to capture additional value through:

• B l t ar ey procuremen

• Integrated global portfolio

• Production efficiencies and utility cost savings

• USDA[(1)] world barley production forecast at 135mmt, 1% higher year on y ear

• Forward sold malt volumes of 0.7mmt, ~50% of production capacity

• Softening beer demand and excess malting capacity in developed markets

• Some rationalisation of excess global ma lt capac it y expec e t d

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(1) USDA May-12

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STRATEGY UPDATE

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Corporate Objectives

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1 Im rove Returns p

2 Mana e Variabilit g y

3 Growth

• • •

• Improve through the Manage through the cycle Grow business scale → cycle shareholder return earnings organic and acquisitions

• Maintain strong cash flow and pay consistent dividends

• Focus on value creation from our suite of grain chain assets

• Leverage capabilities

• Maintain strong balance sheet

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Improving ROE.. Business diversification… Market Capitalisation growth...
180 NPAT ($M) 15% 450 100% 1,750
(1)
Annual ROE(%) Grains EBITDA
150 Rolling 3 yr avg ROE (%) 12% 400 TOTAL EBITDA(2) 1,500
80%
350 Processing % of Total EBITDA
120 9% 1,250
300
60%
90 6% 250 1,000
60 3% 200 750
40%
150
30 0% 500
100
20%
$M0 (3%) 250
50
(30) (6%) $M0 0% $M‐
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
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(1) Country & Logistics, Ports and Marketing EBITDA (2) Includes 60% share of Allied Mills EBITDA, excludes Corporate Costs and Merchandising EBITDA

• 26 -

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Our Strategy builds on our Business Model
and 4 Strategic Themes
1 2 3
Strengthen our grain Grow our grain Create and capture
handling network Marketing business additional Malt value
Harness our grain
Develop improved
Grow relationships to processing footprint and
capability from our
drive grain volume capabilities to develop a
network to retain and
through our network and superior offering for our
maximise grain
capture margin global and regional
volumes
cus omers t
4
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
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THANK YOU – Q&A

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APPENDIX

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NPAT reconciliation

NPAT reconciliation
$ M	HY12	HY11
Statutory NPAT	134	88
Adjusted for Malt defined benefit plan
Before tax	(17)	-
Tax effect	5	-
Underlying NPAT	122	88

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Corporate and Business Unit Costs reconciliation

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$ M Corporate Costs Business Support Costs	HY12 HY11	FY11 21
	13 11
... - Storage & Logistics - Marketing	9 7 1 1	14 2
- Malt Corporate and Business Support	1 1 24 20	2 39

• Support Costs apportioned to businesses in FY12 but reported as part of Corporate Costs in FY11

• HY12 Financial Statements Segment Information (Note 2) incorporates adjustment

• Corporate and Business Support Costs higher due to strategic consulting review, international growth (Marketing and Malt) and higher safety support

• 31 -

Disclaimer

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This presentation includes both information that is historical in character and information that consists of forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are not based on historical facts, but are based on current expectations of future results or events. The forward looking statements are subject to risks , uncertainties and assumptions which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from the expectations described in such forward looking statements. Those risks and uncertainties include factors and risks specific to the industry in which GrainCorp operates, as well as matters such as general economic conditions.

While GrainCorp believes that the expectations reflected in the forward looking statements in thi s presen a t ti on are reasona bl e, ne ith er ra n G i C orp nor s rec ors or any o it di t th er person named in the presentation can assure you that such expectations will prove to be correct or that implied results will be achieved. These forward looking statements do not constitute any representation as to future performance and should not be relied upon as financial advice of any nature. Any forward looking statement contained in this document is qualified by this cautionary statement.

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