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GRAINCORP LIMITED — Regulatory Filings 2012
May 23, 2012
65001_rns_2012-05-23_fe597569-c5bb-4951-9853-cb83ee67a1a3.pdf
Regulatory Filings
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Company announcement
GrainCorp Limited ABN 60 057 186 035
Date: 24 May, 2012 To: The Manager Announcements Company announcements office
PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
GRAINCORP 2012 INVESTOR DAY
Investor Presentation
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Andrew Horne Company Secretary
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GrainCorp Limited Level 26, 175 Liverpool Street, Sydney NSW 2000 PO Box A268, SydneySouth NSW 1235 Telephone: (02) 9325 9100 Facsimile: (02) 9325 9180 www.graincorp.com.au
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24 May 2012
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2012 INVESTOR DAY
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Agenda
| Agenda | Agenda |
|---|---|
| Time Topic Presentation |
|
| G i C GrainCorp (Neil Johns) • Global food themes and implications for GrainCorp ra n orp (Alison Watkins) • There is “Value in Grain” 9.40 10.00 |
|
| S&L(1) (Nigel Hart) • Strengthen our grain handling network 11.00 Break Morning Tea 10.30 |
|
| Marketing (Sam Tainsh) Malt • Grow our grain Marketing business •Create and capture additional Malt value 11.30 1200 |
|
| (S H d ) . teve ay on Finance (Alistair Bell) • Capital management 12.30 |
|
| GrainCorp (Alison Watkins) • Business synergies and Wrap-up 12.50 Break Lunch 13.00 |
|
| G i C Si 13 30 - 2 - (1) Storage & Logistics ra n orp • te tours . Close Buses depart 15.30 |
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24 May 2012
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Managing Director and CEO
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THERE IS “VALUE IN GRAIN”
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Today’s presentation will demonstrate our mission by answering investor questions
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An international agribusiness creating value by connecting Mission consumers to growers along the grain chain
’ – Grow as our grain customers preferred partner driven by our Vision passionate people and our assets around the world
Corporate Objectives
Improve Returns Manage Variability Growth ... Investor questions
1 What is our integrated Business Model?
2 Why is our offering attractive in a global grain market? 3 How will we reach our targeted $40M additional underlying EBITDA?
- 4 -
Our Business Model
�
Three core grains
-
Wheat, barley, canola → represent ~35% of global traded grains
-
‘
-
• Focus on drier climate ’ grains , where we have a comparative advantage
� Three integrated grain activities
-
‘End to end’ grain supply chain presence
-
Create and capture value in our core grains along the grain chain
� Three operating geographies
-
Australia, North America and Europe
-
Provide insight, multi-origin capability and diversification in our core grains
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Global traded Other Wheat
grains [(1)] 8% 30%
Corn
23%
Barley
3%
Canola
Soybean 2%
32%
Sorghum
2%
Marketing
Storage &
Processing
Logistics
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(1) Excludes rice
Grain offers unique value add opportunities
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Grain is a global soft commodity
We have a platform to create and capture grain value
-
Variability in grain supply, trade fl ows, qua lit y, pr c ng w i i ithi n an d between seasons
-
Linked throu h lobal trade g g
-
Opportunities to add value:
-
Accumulation → through storage and handling
-
Origination → through optimal p rocurement
-
Arbitrage → through supply and price risk management
-
We create value from grain through: � Handling → grain origination with quality and execution assurance
-
Ownershi → domestic and p
-
international sales to consumers
-
Processing → grain value add into malt and flour food ingredients
-
-
We capture value by leveraging our:
-
Asset intensive su l chain pp y
-
Grain processing insight
-
Local and international insight
-
-
Processing
-
6 -
Building capabilities in our core grains
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Ports
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-
• •
-
280+ sites in Manage 19+ trains 7 bulk elevators → Flour eastern Australia → → 5mmt+ capacity 16mmt capacity • National network → 20mmt (1) storage • Manage 1mmt+ • 2 container facilities 12 facilities capacity serving road capacity • Handle 2mmt non- Malt 10,000+ growers •
-
grain commodities 4 plants → 0.25mmt
-
and 100+ buyers capacity
-
•
-
Canada In-house ocean Canada Malt • 10 elevators charter freight • 1 bulk elevator • 14 p lants ( Canada , team US, UK, Germany) → 1.1mmt capacity
-
• Distribution (North America)
-
Marketing
- Distribution (North America)
-
Australia : National presence, marketin g ~2mmt
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-
International : Offices in Europe (Hamburg and UK), Asia (Singapore and representatives) and Canada (Calgary); marketing ~2mmt to ~25 countries
-
7 -
(1) Million metric tonnes
Our three integrated grain activities create value in our core grains
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Our business is more than a ‘distributor’ and ‘manufacturer ‘of grain products
-
We also create and capture value by owning grain along our grain chain
Marketin g
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Matches supply and demand
-
Links the consumer to the grower
-
Creates and captures value through procurement and risk management
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- Drives grain through our assets
Storage & Logistics
Processing
Provides grain supply
-
Competitive network and logistics capability to originate grain
-
Adds value to grain through arbitrage opportunities
-
Pushes grain through the network
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Provides grain demand
-
Adds value to grain through processing and procurement
-
Insight into grain characteristics and customer requirements
-
Pulls grain through the network
-
8 -
Our three operating geographies are linked to our core grains
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Europe Australia North America Marketing Storage & Logistics Marketing � � � Hamburg office Country Operations, Calgary office
-
� Saxon Agriculture Logistics and Ports Processing
-
Processing Marketing � Canada Malting Co � � Domestic sales � Bairds Malt (incl. Great Western Malting Scotgrain) � International sales � Country Malt
-
� Schill Malz Processing � Barrett Burston Malting
-
� Allied Mills
Marketing office
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Our core geographies give us insight
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-
Australia has a meaningful 10%+ share in the global trade of our core grains and malt
-
Our geographies give us 50%+ visibility in the global trade of our core grains and malt
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Export share by commodity and region
100%
Other
80%
EU-27
60%
USA
Our
40%
global
export Canada
v si ibility 20%
Australia
0%
Wheat Barley Canola Malt
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Our Strategy builds on our Business Model and 4 Strategic Themes
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1 2 3
Strengthen our grain Grow our grain Create and capture
handling network Marketing business additional Malt value
Harness our grain
Develop improved
Grow relationships to processing footprint and
capability from our
drive grain volume capabilities to develop a
network to retain and
th roug h our ne wor t k an d super or o i ff er ng or our i f
maximise grain
capture margin global and regional
volumes
customers
4
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
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4 Strategic Themes and 11 Gamechangers
1 2 3
Strengthen our grain Grow our grain Create and capture
handling network Marketing business additional Malt value
1 5 7
Drive supply chain Enhance customer- O timise o erational
p p
efficiency focused growth
performance
2 6
Integrate customer Broaden origination
8
offering footprint
Develop global model and
3 customer management
Enhance value Build on our
proposition for growers leading flour position
9
4 Extend value beyond
Grow complementary Maximise milling value and
processing
non-grain commodities pursue downstream growth
4
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
10 11
I t t t t L l b l i
n egra e cus omer accoun everage our g o a gra n
and supply chain planning and malt market insights
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~$40M additional underlying EBITDA
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-
In excess of $40M additional underlying EBITDA from identified Gamechangers
-
To be delivered over 3 years to end FY14 supported by $80-120M capex
-
Supports the growth of ROE through the cycle
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~$40M EBITDA delivered over 3 years ending FY14
1 2 3 4
Strengthen our Grow our grain Create and
Better capture
grain handling Marketing capture additional
synergies
network business Malt value
~
$5M
~$10M
~$10M [(1)]
~$15M
EBITDA
~$40M
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(1) Profit Before Tax (PBT)
GrainCorp Team to implement the strategy
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Alison Watkins Storage & Logistics Marketing Malt (Nigel Hart) (Sam Tainsh) (Steve Haydon) Corporate Strategy & Finance Corporate Services Development (Alistair Bell) (Heather Miles) (Neil Johns)
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Also includes 60% share of Allied Mills - lead by Joe Di Leo
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Agenda
| Agenda | Agenda |
|---|---|
| Time Topic Presentation |
|
| G i C GrainCorp (Neil Johns) • Global food themes and implications for GrainCorp ra n orp (Alison Watkins) • There is “Value in Grain” 9.40 10.00 |
|
| S&L (Nigel Hart) • Strengthen our grain handling network 11.00 Break Morning Tea 10.30 |
|
| Marketing (Sam Tainsh) Malt • Grow our grain Marketing business •Create and capture additional Malt value 11.30 1200 |
|
| (S H d ) . teve ay on Finance (Alistair Bell) • Capital management 12.30 |
|
| GrainCorp (Alison Watkins) • Business synergies and Wrap-up 12.50 Break Lunch 13.00 |
|
| G i C Si 13 30 - 15 - 15.30 ra n orp • te tours . Close Buses depart 15.30 |
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24 May 2012
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Chief Development Officer
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GLOBAL FOOD THEMES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR GRAINCORP
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‘Food Security’ themes will drive the global grain supply chain
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Growth to 2050
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Grain Exported Population 35% 50% 100% Demand Grain
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Grain industry underpins global food chain
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• 2.3bmt[(1) ] of grain drives a food supply chain that supplies ~60% global calories • 55% of grain for cereal foods and beverages and 45% for animal protein foods
Wheat Barley Canola Sorghum Pulses Corn Soybean Grain processing Milling Malting Feed Oil crushing Ethanol Cereal Foods An mai l Prote ni Edible Flour, Malt, Beef, Poultry & Eggs, Oils Industrial Gluten, Glucose Pork, Dairy, Fish Starch, Biofuels Food Products
- 18 -
(1) Billion Metric Tonnes. Excludes rice.
Global grain demand to increase by 50%
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-
Global grain demand forecast to grow by 1bmt or 50% by 2050, driven by
-
35% rise in population to 9.7 billion
-
13% rise in per capita consumption of grain for animal feed (i.e meat and dairy)
Grain consumption drivers to 2050 (bmt)
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Developing Countries 0.18
Developed Countries
Population
0.36
growth
0.42 Per capita 3.15
consumption
growth
Per capita Population
2.16 consumption growth
growth
2010 Per capitaFood grainPopulation Per capitaFeed grainPopulation 2050
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Source: GrainCorp estimates based on UN (Population Revision 2010 ) and FAO
Global grain trade to increase by 100%
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-
Global wheat and malt export trade has doubled in the past 40 years
-
Global trade of our core grains to increase from ~155mmt to ~300mmt pa by 2050
Past and projected global core grain trade Trade (mmt) and Population (billion)
Past global malt trade (mmt)
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9.7 Population
4.5
7.8 54 Barley and
Canola trade
7.0 3.4
1.6 Rest of
6.6 World
2.6
5.7
1.3
35
4.8 24 2.0
24 240 Wheat Asia and
4.0 20 20 trade Africa
2.8
12 129 149 2.1
113
96 102
64
0
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020(e) 2050(e) 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
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Source: USDA and IGC
Uneven spread in global grain trade flows
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-
80% of the increase in the global trade of our core grains will be wheat
-
75% of wheat trade growth driven by import dependent regions
-
Middle East & North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia[(1)]
Forecast growth in wheat imports to 2050 (mmt)
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44 98%
2050
57%
200%
90% 16
14%
140% 3
45 23 14
2010
12 27
20
11 9 16 -1 1
ME/North Africa Sub-Saharan Sub‐Saharan Sub‐Continent Sub- Asia (ex.China)Asia China Latin AmericaLatin DevelopedDeveloped
MENA AfricaAfrica Continent (ex-China) China America countries
Population
growth 59% 138% 44% 31% 3% 32% 14%
Import
45% 76% 7% 100% 1% 57% 10%
dependent
t)
mports (mm
Wheat i
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(1) Excluding China Source: GrainCorp estimates based on UN, FAO, USDA and US Wheat Associates
Internationalisation of grain markets
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-
Grain prices could trend higher with greater variability
-
Grain prices will be increasingly transmitted and linked through global trade
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Grain prices in past 10 years Grain Prices and Volatility
35035
Wheat
Corn
250250
150150
5050
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2000=1002000=100
rice Index –
Price Inex -
P
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Source: USDA wheat and corn prices in USD
Increasing global grain yields to meet demand
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-
Higher grain prices will support increased grain yields
-
Grain yield has increased by ~1% pa in past 40 years
-
Continued improvement in farm practices, fertiliser usage and plant technology
World and eastern Australian grain yields & population
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Population (billion) mt/Ha [(1)]
9 4.0
World Population (LHS)
8 World Grain Yield (RHS) 3.5
Eastern Australia Grain Yield (RHS)
7
3.0
6
2.5
5
2.0
4
1 5.
3
1.0
2
1 0.5
0 0.0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
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(1) Metric tonne per Hectare Source: USDA, UN
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GrainCorp opportunity: Normalised grain receivals and exports
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Eastern Australia Grain Yield [(1)]
(mt/Ha) GrainCorp receivals
3 0. 25 year moving
Eastern Australia production
average 1.8mt/Ha
2.5 ~18.0mmt
2.0 x
1.5 GrainCorp receival share
55-60%
Yield
1.0
=
~1.8mt/Ha
Normalised receivals
0 5.
x 10.0-10.5 mmt
0 - 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Area GrainCorp exports
~10.0 million
Eastern Australia Area Planted [(1)]
(Million Hectares) Hectares Eastern Australia production
12 ~18.0mmt
=
10 Normalised
production Eastern Australia domestic
8 ~ 18 . 0 mm t ~10 0mmt.
6
Containers and other exports
4 10 million Ha 2.5-3.0mmt
2 =
Normalised bulk exports
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 5.0-5.5 mmt
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(1) ABARES wheat, barley, canola and sorghum estimates
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GrainCorp opportunity: Increased yield would support growth
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-
If yield growth exceeds domestic demand growth, there will be a greater than proportionate increase in exports
-
E.g: ~10% grain yield increase to 1.95mt/Ha →grain exports ~20% higher
Scenarios for GrainCorp normalised bulk exports in 2020
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7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 Yield (mt/Ha)
0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% [Yield growth ]
pa to 2020
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k
nCorp bul
mmt)
exports (
aised Grai
Norml
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24 May 2012
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Group General Manager – Storage & Logistics
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STORAGE & LOGISTICS
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Storage & Logistics Gamechangers
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1 2 3
Strengthen our grain Grow our grain Create and capture
handling network Marketing business additional Malt value
1 5 7
Drive supply chain Enhance customer- O timise o erational
p p
efficiency focused growth
performance
2 6
Integrate customer Broaden origination
8
offering footprint
Develop global model and
3 customer management
Enhance value Build on our
proposition for growers leading flour position
9
4 Extend value beyond
Grow complementary Maximise milling value and
processing
non-grain commodities pursue downstream growth
4
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
10 11
I t t t t L l b l i
n egra e cus omer accoun everage our g o a gra n
and supply chain planning and malt market insights
- 27 -
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We have developed a compelling storage and handling package for customers
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-
Flexible network of 280+ receival sites
-
20mmt storage capacity
-
55-60% market share[(1)]
-
Serving 10,000+ growers and 100+ buyers
-
19+ trains managed
-
5mmt+ rail capacity
-
60% market share
-
Manage 1mmt+ road freight
-
Serving domestic and export customers
-
9 export terminals[(2)]
-
16mmt capacity
-
75% export share (bulk and containers)
-
Open access, serving 20+ exporters
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Receivals – volume and share [(1)] Rail freight – volume and trains Exports – volume and share [(3)]
20 Country Receivals mmt (LHS) 70% 10 Rail volume mmt (LHS) 30 16 Grain exports mmt (LHS) 90%
% Share of Crop (RHS) Trains managed (RHS) % Share of Ex p orts ( RHS )
14
16 60% 8 24 80%
12
10
12 50% 6 18 70%
8
8 40% 4 12 60%
6
4
4 30% 2 6 50%
2
0 20% 0 0 0 40%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 (g) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 (f) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 (g)
managed
mmt mmt mmt
Trains
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(1) Share of ABARES’ wheat, barley, canola and sorghum production estimates for Australia’s eastern states (2) 7 bulk and 2 container terminals (3) Share of eastern Australian grain exports (bulk and containers)
- 28 -
We operate in a competitive eastern Australian grain market
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-
Key drivers of our Storage & Logistics environment are capacity and competition
-
• •
-
~10mmt domestic ~3mmt pa of rail freight 4mmt pa export capacity ti on w ith fi rs t it i dditi on o our t u lk an d con a ners t i n
-
consump capac y n a (b ) i call on grain 5mmt+ pa addition to our 16mmt
-
• • bulk capacity pa
-
•
-
~20mmt of storage Increasing use of road for capac it y n a i dditi on o t expor → now ~ t 3 mm pa t our 20mmt
-
G row th o con a ner se f t i i d grain exports → now ~2.5mmt pa
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- 29 -
Our unique and competitive offering – we’re more than just a grain handler
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-
Network flexibility → grain accumulation and execution capability
-
Quality assurance → grain quality management along the grain chain
-
Insight → ability to match grain profile with customer needs
-
Grain securitisation → grower and buyer confidence to trade
-
� Market p ace l → titl e rans er suppor s t f t price discovery
-
Commercial access → role as both principal and agent for grain
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Strategy to maximise the attractiveness of our network
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| Strategy to maximise the attractiveness of our network |
Strategy to maximise the attractiveness of our network |
|---|---|
| • Target incremental underlying EBITDA → ~$15M | |
| ork 1 • Focus → improved capability from our network to maintain share and improve margin 1 |
|
| g netw | Optimise rail performance Drive supply chain efficiency • • Improve planning efficiency and effectiveness |
| n handli |
Integrate customer offering • Develop an integrated offering to our export customers • Grow our domestic buyer relationships ~~2~~ |
| n ur grai |
Enhance value proposition for • Create an “easy to access” marketplace for growers • Develop grower segmentation and engagement model 3 |
| o ngthen |
• Strengthen our core country network growers • Grow our container packing capability Grow 4 |
Stre |
complementary non-grain commodities • Capture non-grain storage and handling opportunities at our ports |
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1 Drive supply chain efficiency
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Optimise rail performance
Improve planning efficiency and effectiveness
-
Target → optimise network capability and im rove rail roductivit b 20% p p y y
-
Reduce down time and under loading
-
Invest to improve capacity
-
Develop performance dashboards
-
Target → improve network efficiency to reduce su l chain costs pp y
-
Introduce flexible stock system
-
Improve demand forecasting and develop supporting processes
-
Invest to upgrade GrainTransact
Refurbish 18 locomotives
Upgrade receival site planning capability
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2 Integrate customer offering
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Develop an integrated offering to our export customers
Grow our domestic buyer relationships
-
Target → develop capacity planning alternatives for ex p ort customers
-
Match rail capacity and investment with export customer requirements
-
Target → increase grain supply to domestic animal feed market
-
Improve our grain accumulation services
-
Improve capacity certainty for customers → consider LTAs[(1)]
-
Expand our suite of products tailored for domestic consumers
Grow supply to domestic feedlots
Improve ship loading capacity certainty
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- 33 -
(1) Long Term Agreements
3 Enhance value proposition for growers
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Create an “easy to access” Develop grower segmentation marketplace for growers and engagement model
-
Target → develop tools to improve rowers’ access to market
-
g
-
Expand on line functionality for growers with grain in storage
-
Target → develop segment approach to meet the different needs of g rowers
-
Develop innovative integrated service offerings
Launch smartphone app
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- Introduce products to optimise the value of each grain delivery
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Develop innovative service agreements
- 34 -
3
Enhance value proposition for growers
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Strengthen our core country network
Grow our container packing capability
-
Target → invest $20M+ to improve rower site service
-
g
-
Acquire new mobile equipment to improve site delivery turnaround times
-
Target → grow containerised exports be ond 20% market share y
-
Leverage our complementary supply chain assets
-
Ensure operating hours match demand → flexibility and longevity
-
Develop new container packing facilities at country sites
Develop country container facilities
Acquire 20+ new grain stackers
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- 35 -
Grow complementary non-grain 4 commodities
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Capture non-grain storage and handling opportunities at our ports
- Target → grow non-grain export and import storage and handling activity
-
Increase non grain exports to > 2 . 0mmt pa and grow non grain imports
-
Support investment with LTAs
Grow Portland woodchip exports
Grow Geelong fertiliser imports
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- 36 -
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24 May 2012
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----- Start of picture text -----
General Manager – Marketing
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MARKETING
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Marketing Gamechangers
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----- Start of picture text -----
1 2 3
Strengthen our grain Grow our grain Create and capture
handling network Marketing business additional Malt value
1 5 7
Drive supply chain Enhance customer- O timise o erational
p p
efficiency focused growth
performance
2 6
Integrate customer Broaden origination
8
offering footprint
Develop global model and
3 customer management
Enhance value Build on our
proposition for growers leading flour position
9
4 Extend value beyond
Grow complementary Maximise milling value and
processing
non-grain commodities pursue downstream growth
4
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
10 11
I t t t t L l b l i
n egra e cus omer accoun everage our g o a gra n
and supply chain planning and malt market insights
- 38 -
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Linking our asset intensive supply chain
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-
Our Marketing Business Model → domestic and international grain marketing
-
Grain supply chain
-
Country Logistics Ports Processing Marketing connects growers and consumers through...
-
Country Storage Transport and Ports Customer Support • • • Accumulation Freight management Risk management
-
• • • Geographical footprint Elevation management Market knowledge
-
• • • Quality assurance Quality assurance Technical support
-
• • Supply consistency Ocean vessel chartering
Marketing leverages our competitive advantages...
-
Australian grain quality advantages → wheat, barley and canola
-
‘End to end’ supply chain capability, customer support and expertise
-
39 -
Constant domestic sales and strong export growth
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-
Higher volumes and improved customer service
-
National Marketing capability
-
Strong eastern Australian presence
-
Expanding export capabilities → Australia, Europe and Canada
-
Building sustainable customer relationships focused on our core grains
-
In-house ocean freight procurement
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----- Start of picture text -----
Domestic sales volume (mmt)
4.0
3.5
3 0.
2.5
HY12 only
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 HY12
tmm
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----- Start of picture text -----
Export sales volume (mmt)
3.0
2.5
2.0
HY12 only
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 HY12
tmm
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- 40 -
Who are our overseas customers
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-
A broad base of 60+ overseas consumers of our core grains
-
We have doubled our Marketing export volumes in the past 3 years
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----- Start of picture text -----
GrainCorp export volumes by region, commodity, end use and delivery
(3 year average %)
100 Other
Container
Other Canola
Barley Trader
Europe
80 Pacific FOB [(2)]
South East
Asia Animal
60
North Asia Wheat
40
CFR [(3)]
Human
20 Mid-East &
Africa [(1)]
0
Region Commodity End use Delivery method
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-
(1) Middle East and Africa
-
(2) Free on Board – title transferred at departure port
-
(3) Cargo and Freight – title transferred at destination port
-
41 -
Competitive global environment
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-
Australia is freight advantaged to Middle East, Asia and eastern Africa
-
International presence complements our Australian freight advantage
Global Wheat Exports/Imports – mmt (2011/2012) and Australian Freight Advantages
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----- Start of picture text -----
18 0..
27.0
4.5
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----- Start of picture text -----
20 5. 18 0..
17 8
5.0
9.0
13.1 27.0
3.2
6.4
10.5 12.6 4.5
15.7
4.1
7.3
21.5
7 3.
Wheat Wheat
Marketing office Freight advantage
Exports Imports - 42 -
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Our growing international presence
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-
Market intelligence key → close to supply fundamentals and supports our offering to overseas customers
-
We have visibility across 50%+ global export trade of each of our core grains
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GrainCorp Marketing international presence
----- End of picture text -----
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----- Start of picture text -----
Canada
�
Calgary office
Europe
� Asia
Hamburg office
� Saxon Agriculture � Singapore
�
Asia representatives
Australia
�
Headquarters - Sydney
� Eastern Australia
�
Western Australia (WA)
and South Australia (SA)
Marketing office
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- 43 -
Strategy to grow our domestic and export Marketing activity
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-
Target incremental underlying PBT → ~$10M
-
Focus → Grow relationships with domestic and international customers to market an additional 1-2mmt of our core grains
2 5 Enhance • Do more with existing international customers customer • Pursue new customers and markets focused growth 6 Broaden • Grow Australian (WA and SA) grain origination origination • Grow international (Europe and Canada) grain origination footprint
- 44 -
5 Enhance customer focused growth
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Do more with existing international customers
Pursue new customers and markets
-
Target → grow core grain exports to existin g customers
-
Service through supply chain capability and technical support
-
Target → grow core grain exports to new customers and markets
-
Harness global demand opportunities and independent supplier position
-
Develop service offering to meet unmet customer demand
-
Leverage our competitive advantages (supply chain, grain quality, expertise)
Grow grain exports to existing customers Grow grain exports to new customers
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- 45 -
6 Broaden origination footprint
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Grow Australian (WA and SA) grain origination
Grow international (Europe and Canada) grain origination
-
Target → grow core grain exports from WA and SA
-
Target → grow core grain exports from our core eo ra hies g g p
-
Grow our WA and SA capability
-
Expand our international capability
-
Develop our suite of WA and SA marketing alternatives
-
Leverage our Malt portfolio
-
Grow exports on an asset light basis
-
Capture market intelligence
Grow exports from WA and SA
Leverage our core geographies
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Grain growing regions
GrainCorp origination office
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-
Develop new integrated global trading and risk management system
-
46 -
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----- Start of picture text -----
24 May 2012
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----- Start of picture text -----
CEO – GrainCorp Malt
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MALT
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Malt Gamechangers
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----- Start of picture text -----
1 2 3
Strengthen our grain Grow our grain Create and capture
handling network Marketing business additional Malt value
1 5 7
Drive supply chain Enhance customer- O timise o erational
p p
efficiency focused growth
performance
2 6
Integrate customer Broaden origination
8
offering footprint
Develop global model and
3 customer management
Enhance value Build on our
proposition for growers leading flour position
9
4 Extend value beyond
Grow complementary Maximise milling value and
processing
non-grain commodities pursue downstream growth
4
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
10 11
I t t t t L l b l i
n egra e cus omer accoun everage our g o a gra n
and supply chain planning and malt market insights
- 48 -
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We have developed an integrated Malt business that provides a platform for growth
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-
Service >800 customers
-
18 plants with 1.4mmt capacity → 4[th] largest commercial maltster
-
Diverse range of customer channels - Gl o b a l b rewers
-
’
-
• →world s
-
Operations in 5 countries major barley and malt regions
-
Regional brewers
-
Good capacity utilisation
-
Distillers
Malt sales volume and capacity utilisation[(1)]
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----- Start of picture text -----
Sales Volume mmt (LHS) Capacity Utilisation %
1.4 100%
90%
1.2
80%
1.0
70%
0.8
60%
0 6. 50%
CY07 CY08 LTM LTM FY11 FY12(g)
Jun-09 FY10
mmt
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-
Craft brewers
-
Food manufacturers
-
Domestic and export participation
-
70% of sales to domestic customers
-
30% export sales
-
Export to all continents including developing world growth markets
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- 49 -
(1) LTM – Like Twelve Months
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While margins are under short term pressure – medium term demand fundamentals are sound
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Global beer demand
Craft beer demand
Global whisk demand y
-
Change in beer sales mix
-
Forecast to grow ~2% pa
-
•
-
Led by developing Craft beer gaining higher countries →population share of total beer market growth •
-
Craft beer uses more malt
-
• Softening demand in per hectolitre of beer mature markets
-
Forecast to grow ~4% pa
-
Lead by developing countries →rising affluence
-
Represents majority of Scottish malt demand
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----- Start of picture text -----
Rising and changing mix of Craft beer’s increasing share of Whisky demand growing [(3)]
global beer demand [(1)] US beer market [(2)]
Africa / Middle East ( LHS ) Asia Pacific ( LHS ) 10% 400
Craft share %
USA (LHS) Europe (LHS)
9%
Global beer demand (RHS) Brewers Association Scenario
100% 3.0 8% 350
90% 7%
2.5
80% 6% 300
70%
2.0 5%
60%
50% 1.5 4% 250
40% 3%
1.0
30% 2%
200
20% 0.5 1%
10%
0%
0% 0.0 150
2000 2010(e) 2015(e) 2020(e) 2009 2010 2011(e) 2012(e) 2013(e) 2014(e)
n hectolitres n litres of alcohol
o
Billi Millio
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2020
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(1) Source: Plato Logic (2) Source: Brewers Association (3) Source: Sutherlands
- 50 -
Value is created at each stage of the malt supply chain
- Malt’s earnings are generated along the malt supply chain
Barley procurement
• Procurement → access, pricing and position management • Barley quality → varietal management and yield • Barley handling →elevation , storage and drying services
Processing fees
-
Customers either purchase malt...
-
fees – U n d er annua or l LTA s w hi c h i ncorpora e an agree t d process ng i fee (or);
-
Malt – On a spot basis which delivers a margin on the sale
-
margins
• High protein by-product sold into the stock feed market By-products • Revenue dependent on the underlying barley and feed value
-
Bagging and warehousing
-
Distribution • Distribution and support services to craft brewing market
-
51 -
Our global malt portfolio provides a strong competitive position
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-
Positioned across ~60% of world’s barley production
-
Located in regions that supply ~80% of global malt exports
Our global malt portfolio
Europe
Bairds (UK)
-
5 plants (250kmt[(1)] )
-
Sales[(2)] - domestic (90%), export (10%)
Schill Malz (Germany)
-
4 plants (190kmt)
-
Sales - domestic (70%), export (30%)
Marketing office
Australia
Barrett Burston
-
4 plants (250kmt)
-
Sales - domestic (35%), export (65%)
North America
Canada Malting Co
-
3 plants (450kmt)
-
Sales - domestic (60%), export (40%)
-
Great Western Malting � 2 plants (210kmt)
-
� Sales - domestic (85%), export (15%)
-
Country Malt
-
Retail distribution network
-
(1) Thousand metric tonnes of annual production capacity (2) Average domestic and export sales mix
-
52 -
Strategy to create and capture additional value from malting activities
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- Target incremental underlying EBITDA → ~$10M
• Focus → Leverage our footprint and capabilities to optimise our malting activities and develop a superior malt supply chain offering
3 7 Optimise • Global cost benchmarking and continuous improvement operational • Im lement cost savin initiatives p g performance 8 Develop global • Global margin management (sales mix) model and customer • Global customer account management management 9 • Extend value Leverage capability in malt barley procurement • beyond processing Grow capability in craft brewing market - 53 -
7 Optimise operational performance
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Global cost benchmarking and continuous improvement
Implement cost saving initiatives
-
Target → leverage our global network for best ractice and innovation p
-
Harness our deep network of production and engineering expertise
-
Target → invest to reduce o p eratin g costs
-
Invest in sustainability initiatives to reduce energy and water usage
-
Benchmarking across a co-ordinated global production group
-
Prioritise ~100 identified projects for largest cost saving opportunities
Develop ENMAX (Calgary) project
Focus on continuous improvement
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- 54 -
8 Global model and customer management
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Global margin management (sales mix)
Global customer account management
-
Target → develop an integrated barle y and malt p ricin g strate gy
-
Develop strategies for margin risk management
-
Target → provide an integrated global customer offerin g
-
Tailor our ‘end to end’ global malt supply chain solution
-
Introduce common tools and systems
-
Develop an integrated global customer management system
Develop an integrated global barley procurement and malt sales strategy
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Global brewing market share (%)
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----- Start of picture text -----
100%
80% Other
brewers
60%
40%
Top 4
brewers
20%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
----- End of picture text -----
- 55 -
9 Extend value beyond processing
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Leverage capability in malt barley procurement
Grow capability in craft brewing market
-
Target → leverage regional Marketing and Malt rocurement ca abilities p p
-
Target → build capability to capture o ortunities in craft brew market pp
-
Work with Marketing teams in Sydney, Hamburg and Calgary
-
Pursue growth opportunities
-
Leverage our strong position and expertise in the US craft brew market
-
Explore opportunities from deregulation of the Canadian market
Grow malt sales to craft brewing market
Leverage barley relationships
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- 56 -
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----- Start of picture text -----
24 May 2012
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----- Start of picture text -----
Chief Financial Officer
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CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
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~$40M underlying EBITDA growth improves through the cycle ROE
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-
Grains Malt
-
• • Target $25-30M EBITDA Target $10-15M EBITDA growth (S&L, Marketing growth (Malt and and synergies) synergies)
Im roved ROE p
-
Improve through the cycle shareholder return
-
Value creation from our integrated suite of grain chain assets
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----- Start of picture text -----
• •
Improve margin per Optimise volumes and integrated suite of grain
throughput tonne and manage margin chain assets
manage volume variability variability
Grains EBITDA / Throughput [(1)] Malt Sales and EBITDA/t [(2)] Improving ROE..
Grains EBITDA/t (LHS) Marketing interest/t (LHS) 1.20 Malt Sales mmt (LHS) 140 NPAT ($M)
180 15%
14 Throughput mmt (RHS) 30 Malt EBITDA/t (RHS) 130 Annual ROE (%) Rolling 3 yr avg ROE(%)
1.15 150 12%
120
12
25
110 120 9%
10 1.10
20 100
8 90 6%
1.05 90
6 15 60 3%
80
4 10 1.00 70 30 0%
2 60
0.95
5 $M0 (3%)
0 50
0.90 40 (30) (6%)
(2) 0
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 CY07 CY08 LTM Jun-09 LTM FY10 FY11 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
$/mt
mmt mmt $/mt
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-
(1) Grains is Country & Logistics, Ports and Marketing. Throughput = Average of Country inload and outload, plus Ports grain and non-grain exports (2) Excludes Port of Vancouver compensation receipts
-
58 -
Capital investment for ~$40M EBITDA growth
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-
$80-120M capex to capture earnings growth → 3 years ending FY14
-
Average ROCE of ~20% for investments → 2-3 years cash payback
Example capex projects to achieve ~$40M EBITDA
1 Strengthen our grain handling network
-
Online support → smartphone app and Grain Transact upgrade
-
• Receival site upgrades → e.g weighbridges and sample stands
-
• Equipment upgrades for ~20 key receival sites
2 Grow our grain Marketing business
-
Global trading and risk management system
-
International capability → office and personnel
3 Create and • Sustainabilit initiatives → e. waste water and heat rec clin y g y g capture addit ona i l • Global platforms and systems → procurement and sales Malt value
4 $13-14M Better capture synergies
-
Customer and procurement planning
-
59 -
Low gearing, strong cash and sound dividends
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Stron balance sheet and cash flow g
Sound dividends
-
Core Gearing[(1)] 13% at HY12 → strategy to maintain <25%
-
Capacity and flexibility to fund growth
-
Strong cash flow → funding capex and dividends
-
Policy to pay 40-60% of NPAT through the business cycle
-
Targeting to pay a dividend each year
-
Flex via Specials
Core[(1)] and Net[(2)] Debt
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----- Start of picture text -----
1,000 100%
Core Debt ($M) Net Debt ($M) Core Gearing %
800 80%
600 60%
400 40%
200 20%
$M0 0%
(200) (20%)
HY07 FY07 HY08 FY08 HY09 FY09 HY10 FY10 HY11 FY11 HY12
----- End of picture text -----
Dividend Per Share ($) and Payout Ratio (%)
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----- Start of picture text -----
1.0 100%
Dividend per share (LHS) Earnings payout ratio (%)
0.8 80%
0.6 60%
0.4 40%
0.2 20%
0.0 0%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 HY12
per share
$
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-
(1) Core Debt is Total Debt less Cash less Grain Marketing Inventory. Core Gearing = Core Debt / (Core Debt + Equity) (2) Net Debt is Total Debt less Cash
-
60 -
Good access to debt and cash for strategic growth
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----- Start of picture text -----
Use and Position Strategy Implications
• •
Use → Marketing’s grain trading Storage & Logistics → facilitate
activities, working capital new service offerings
requirements and Malt activities • Marketing →flexible facilities to
•
Position → $725M limit and $515M
fund grain trading activities
drawn [(1)]
(domestic and offshore)
• •
Use → corporate planning (growth Maintain Core Debt gearing <25%
and investments) •
Financial access to ursue strate ic
p g
•
Position → $371M limit and $331M
initiatives → organic and acquisitive
drawn [(1)]
• •
Use → dividends and growth Targeting to pay a dividend [(2) ] each
•
Position → $256M Cash [(1)] year → flex via specials
•
Pursue strategic initiatives
rm debt
Short te
debt
Term
Cash
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(2) Dividend Policy – Pay 40-60% of Net Profit After Tax through the business cycle
(1) As at 31 March 2012
- 61 -
Marketing’s activities funded with flexible short term finance
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Strategy
-
Marketing’s grain trading activities are funded with short term debt
-
Match debt with asset life
-
Fluctuates with seasonal requirements
-
M u lti ur s i di c ti ona l currency, mu lti j
Treatment
-
Performance measured as Profit Before Tax → interest treated as part of COGS
-
Commodity inventory funding recognised as Operating Cash Flow → matches funding purpose
Marketing Inventory and Short-Term Debt - $M
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----- Start of picture text -----
675
Grain Marketing inventory Short term debt
600
525
450
375
300
225
150
75
$M0
HY07 FY07 HY08 FY08 HY09 FY09 HY10 FY10 HY11 FY11 HY12
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Supplemented shortterm debt with cash
- 62 -
A stringent approach to managing Marketing and Malt risk
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----- Start of picture text -----
Risk GrainCor A roach
p pp
•
Limited “flat” price risk → trading “basis” price
Price
•
Hedge positions → derivatives or physical
•
Position limits and established loss limits within a structured
Positions
framework and policy
•
Contracts and insurance → counterparty credit actively managed
Performance
•
Logistics → leverage our supply chain capability
•
Business Risk Committee → 3 Non-executive Directors and an
Independent Expert
GrainCorp
Risk • Separate front and back office
Framework • Facilitate forward grain and malt sales within agreed positions
•
Upgrading global trading and risk management system
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- 63 -
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----- Start of picture text -----
24 May 2012
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Managing Director and CEO
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BUSINESS SYNERGIES AND WRAP-UP
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Synergy Gamechangers and Allied Mills
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1 2 3
Strengthen our grain Grow our grain Create and capture
handling network Marketing business additional Malt value
1 5 7
Drive supply chain Enhance customer- O timise o erational
p p
efficiency focused growth
performance
2 6
Integrate customer Broaden origination
8
offering footprint
Develop global model and
3 customer management
Enhance value Build on our
proposition for growers leading flour position
9
4 Extend value beyond
Grow complementary Maximise milling value and
processing
non-grain commodities pursue downstream growth
4
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
10 11
I t t t t L l b l i
n egra e cus omer accoun everage our g o a gra n
and supply chain planning and malt market insights
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4
Strategy to leverage our capability to improve our integrated customer offering
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- Target incremental underlying EBITDA → ~$5M
• Focus → Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
10 Integrate customer • account and supply ‘End to end’ supply chain planning for the customer chain planning
11 Leverage our global grain and malt market insights
• Use our insight to improve our offering to customers
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10 11[Better capture business synergies]
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Integrate customer account and supply chain planning
Leverage our global grain and malt market insights
-
Target → optimise our supply chain lannin for the customer
-
p g
-
Develop integrated planning processes
-
Target → create and capture value from our market insi hts g
-
Leverage our competitive advantages and international presence
-
Formalise our ‘end to end’ service execution capability
Enhance our integrated service offering
- Improve our integrated grain and malt customer offering
Leverage our ‘end to end’ market insight
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Country
Log st csi i
Ports
Processing
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Allied Mills – strong market position
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Australian network Stron osition Core to GrainCor
g p p
• • •
Largest flour mill network Low cost network Grain processing value
• • •
7 flour mill sites supported More than a flour miller Other value
by manufacturing , – Frozen donuts , par baked – Buyer at country sites
warehousing and
breads, pre-mixes and – Procure wheat
distribution capability
coatings
–
• Rail logistics mgt
5 mixing and frozen •
Leading market share
–
product facilities Shareholder loan interest
–
Human consumption
An unrivalled national network... – Bread and cake mixes
$M ( 60% JV share ) FY11
•
Diversified customers and
channels with long term EBITDA 26
customer relationships
Equity Profit 8
•
R&D capability in:
Shareholder loan
1.4
–
Flour and pre-mixes interest
Millin g – Frozen formats
N e t A sse t V a ue l 144
Mixing
Frozen products
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Allied Mills – strategy to build on our leading flour position
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- Tar et → row shareholder return and maximise s ner o ortunities g g y gy pp
• Focus → leverage national network and pursue downstream growth
Maximise milling value Pursue downstream growth
-
Expand Tennyson mill and lower network operating cost base
-
Implement customer strategies including partnering and strategic pricing
-
Improve returns from existing product portfolio
Pursue downstream • Invest in new and complementary products growth
- Develop technology and product partnerships
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Brisbane showcases our Business Model
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Fisherman Islands Pinkenba
Country Logistics Ports Processing
• • • •
Grain 4 contracted trains Bulk → 2.1mmt capacity Malt plant → 86kmt
ori ination • Rail inload → • Containers → ~200kmt ca acit
g p y
• •
→ from balloon loops Non-grain → woodchips, Allied Mills →
•
QLD and Road inload → sands, meals, fertiliser, Tennyson and
Nth NSW marshalling yards sugar, cottonseed Yatala
•
Marketing → grain exports, sales to Barrett Burston, grain supply chain and risk management
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Our Strategy builds on our Business Model
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----- Start of picture text -----
1 2 3
Strengthen our grain Grow our grain Create and capture
handling network Marketing business additional Malt value
Harness our grain
Develop improved
Grow relationships to processing footprint and
capability from our
drive grain volume capabilities to develop a
network to retain and
th roug h our ne wor t k an d super or o i ff er ng or our i f
maximise grain
capture margin global and regional
volumes
customers
4
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
Better capture synergies from our network and integrated grain businesses
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Disclaimer
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This presentation includes both information that is historical in character and information that consists of forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are not based on historical facts, but are based on current expectations of future results or events. The forward looking statements are subject to risks , uncertainties and assumptions which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from the expectations described in such forward looking statements. Those risks and uncertainties include factors and risks specific to the industry in which GrainCorp operates, as well as matters such as general economic conditions.
While GrainCorp believes that the expectations reflected in the forward looking statements in t hi s presentat on are reasona i bl e, ne t i h er ra n G i C orp nor ts rectors or any ot i di h er person named in the presentation can assure you that such expectations will prove to be correct or that implied results will be achieved. These forward looking statements do not constitute any representation as to future performance and should not be relied upon as financial advice of any nature. Any forward looking statement contained in this document is qualified by this cautionary statement.
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