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GRAINCORP LIMITED — Investor Presentation 2014
Nov 12, 2014
65001_rns_2014-11-12_3b4a8a73-159a-4789-a307-4f239dfbd101.pdf
Investor Presentation
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13 November 2014
The Manager Company Announcements Office ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street SYDNEY NSW 2000
GRAINCORP LIMITED: GNC INVESTOR PRESENTATION
FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2014
Please find attached the Investor Presentation relating to the financial year ended 30 September 2014.
GrainCorp is holding a briefing for investors and analysts commencing at 10.00am (Sydney time) to present the FY14 Results. The briefing will be webcast live and can be accessed from the following link: www.brrmedia.com/event/129100. An archived version will also be available later in the day.
Yours sincerely,
GREGORY GREER Company Secretary
GrainCorp Limited
Level 26, 175 Liverpool Street Sydney NSW 2000 PO Box A268 Sydney South NSW 1235 T 02 9325 9100 F 02 9325 9180
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ABN 60 057 186 035
graincorp.com.au
FY14 Results
13 November 2014
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Disclaimer
This presentation includes both information that is historical in character and information that consists of forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are not based on historical facts, but are based on current expectations of future results or events. The forward looking statements are subject to risks, stakeholder engagement, uncertainties and assumptions which could cause actual results, timing, or events to differ materially from the expectations described in such forward looking statements. Those risks and uncertainties include factors and risks specific to the industry in which GrainCorp operates, any applicable legal requirements, as well as matters such as general economic conditions.
While GrainCorp believes that the expectations reflected in the forward looking statements in this presentation are reasonable, neither GrainCorp nor its directors or any other person named in the presentation can assure you that such expectations will prove to be correct or that implied results will be achieved. These forward looking statements do not constitute any representation as to future performance and should not be relied upon as financial advice of any nature. Any forward looking statement contained in this document is qualified by this cautionary statement.
2
Agenda
-
Introduction (Mark Palmquist)
-
Result Overview (Don Taylor)
-
Segment Performance (Don Taylor)
-
Balance Sheet & Capex (Alistair Bell)
-
FY15 Outlook (Mark Palmquist)
-
Strategic Initiatives Updates & CEO View (Mark Palmquist)
-
Questions
3
Commitment to values driving positive outcomes
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Values
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Safety Performance[(1)]
Employee Engagement
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88%
59%
Engagement Score Participation Rate
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12.0
10.7
7.0
FY12 FY13 FY14
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Safety
People
-
34% reduction in Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate[(1)]
-
Sustained employee engagement across the business at 59%
-
44% reduction in All Injury Frequency Rate[(2)]
-
Women held 20% of people leadership roles (22% of workforce is female)
Community
Environment
-
•
-
Established baselines for energy, Community support through emissions, water and waste GrainCorp Community Fund
-
• • Benchmarked energy use across Malt Indigenous community engagement and external audits across Oils through Reconciliation Action Plan
-
Measured as Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate ('LTIFR’) calculated as the number of lost time injuries per million hours worked. Includes permanent and casual employees and GrainCorp controlled contractors.
-
Measured as All Injury Frequency Rate (‘AIFR’) calculated as the number of injuries per million hour worked. Includes permanent and casual employees and GrainCorp controlled contractors.
4
Diversified earnings support challenging period for grains businesses
-
FY14 earnings of $293M EBITDA[(1)] and $95M NPAT[(2)] .
-
FY14 statutory NPAT of $50M after significant items[(3)] .
-
Significant items : $44M[(3)] including:
-
$25M including Oils network optimisation and S&L network rationalisation
-
$19M relating to increased claims provision
-
-
Dividend: fully franked FY14 final dividend of $0.05 per share (totalling $0.20 per share for FY14).
-
Strategic initiatives: major strategic initiatives underway; ~$515M capex program supporting implementation; $111M invested over the last two years.
-
Storage & Logistics: below-average carry-in and below-normal grain production in eastern Australia resulting in lower exportable surplus, below-normal upcountry receivals and grain exports.
-
Marketing: below-normal grain production in eastern Australia resulting increased competition for grain and margin pressure.
-
Malt: consistent levels of high capacity utilisation; implementation of strategic initiatives improving earnings; favourable foreign exchange impact on translation and export competitiveness.
-
Oils: higher crushed oilseeds volumes; lower refined volumes resulting from reduced customer volumes; continued high capacity utilisation at liquid terminals; solid contributions from liquid feeds and commodity management businesses.
-
EBITDA is a non IFRS measure representing earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, before significant items. 2. Net profit after tax and before significant items.
-
Significant items of $44M (after tax) includes provisions relating to Oils’ network optimisation and Storage & Logistics’ network rationalisation and increase in claims provision. See appendix for further detail.
5
Earnings profile highlighting benefits of diversification along the grain chain
EBITDA[(1) ] $M
NPAT[(1)] $M
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Malt
Oils
414
Allied 395
Marketing 350
S&L 293
212
160
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
2H 78 100 177 179 168 127
1H 82 112 173 235 227 166
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Fiscal 1H
Fiscal 2H 205
172 175
83
66
84 95
80
63
34
31 28 88 122 109
53 61
32
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
2H 31 27 84 83 66 34
1H 32 53 88 122 109 61
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-
~83% increase in EBITDA from FY09 to FY14
-
~50% increase in NPAT from FY09 to FY14
-
Diversification highlighted in earnings profile
6
- Before significant items. EBITDA and NPAT reflect inclusion of Malt from FY10 and Oils from FY13.
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification
FY13 to FY14 Earnings Bridge[(1)] $M
| Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
Processing businesses highlighting the importance of earnings diversification |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY13 to FY14 Earnings Bridge(1) $M | |||||||||||
| 175 107 18 2 2 8 24 3 Below- normal grain production, resulting in lower volumes High capacity utilisation, strategic initiatives, FX Recent capex program Lower foods volumes Lower margins due to competition for grain Managing corporate overheads and CEO transition Challenging milling market |
95 1 30 Lower earnings resulting in lower tax Higher debt levels, lower debt cost |
||||||||||
| FY13 NPAT Storage & Marketing Malt Oils Allied Corporate & D&A EBITDA |
Net Interest Tax FY14 NPAT |
||||||||||
| FY13 |
Logistics Storage & |
Marketing | Malt(2) | Oils | Mills Allied Mills (3) |
BU Support Corporate |
D&A | Net |
Tax | FY14 |
|
| NPAT | Logistics | Interest | NPAT | ||||||||
| FY14 ($M) | 72 | 36 | 125 | 73 | 10 | (23) | (127) | (40) | (32) | 95 | |
| FY13 ($M) | 179 | 54 | 101 | 75 | 12 | (26) | (119) | (39) | (62) | 175 |
-
Excludes significant items - see appendix for further information.
-
Includes Port of Vancouver compensation receipts of $4.6M in FY14 ($4.0M in FY13). 3. 60% share of NPAT.
7
Diversified earnings supporting dividend, in line with policy
Total FY14 dividends (DPS[1] )
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Ordinary DPS
Special DPS 65
55
45
30
20
7
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 6yr [(3)]
Payout
23% 74% 64% 68% 59% 48% 60%
ratio [(2)]
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- FY14 final dividend : fully franked final dividend of $0.05 per share
FY14 Dividend Dates
-
Total FY14 dividends: $0.20 per share
-
Record: 2 Dec 14
-
Payout ratio : 48% of NPAT[(2)]
-
Payment: 16 Dec 14
-
Dividend policy: Payout 40 – 60% NPAT through the business cycle
-
Targeting to pay an ordinary dividend each year
-
DPS is dividends per share shown in cents.
-
Payout ratio based on NPAT before significant items.
-
Six year weighted payout ratio before significant items.
8
Segment Performance
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Portfolio of grain businesses capture value along the grain chain
| $M Revenue FY14 FY13 |
EBITDA(1) |
|---|---|
| FY14 FY13 |
|
| Storage & Logistics 444 655 72 179 Marketing 1,907 2,169 36 54 Malt(2) 1,049 977 125 101 Oils 937 962 73 75 Allied Mills(3) - - 10 12 Corporate Costs - - (23) (26) Eliminations and other (243) (301) - - |
|
| Total 4,094 4,462 293 395 |
-
Before significant items – see appendix for further detail.
-
EBITDA includes Port of Vancouver compensation receipts of $4.6M in FY14 ($4.0M in FY13). Final compensation receipt to be received in FY15. 3. Allied Mills 60% share of NPAT.
10
Storage & Logistics – lower grain production resulting in lower volumes
| $M | FY14 | FY13 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 444 | 655 |
| EBITDA | 72 | 179 |
| EBIT | 23 | 128 |
| Capital Expenditure | 62 | 60 |
-
Lower earnings due to below-normal grain production resulting in lower volumes and market share
-
Carry-in : 2.3mmt[(1)] (FY13: 4.3mmt)
-
Country receivals: 8.0mmt (FY13:
- 10.4mmt); ~46% share of production[(2)]
Storage & Logistics Throughput (mmt)[(4)]
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28.5
24.1 23.8
16.9
15.7
13.9
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
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-
Exports : grain exports[(3)] of 4.4mmt (FY13: 8.3mmt); non-grain exports of 1.9mmt (FY13: 1.9mmt)
-
Throughput[(4)] : reflecting lower upcountry receivals and export volumes, 15.7mmt (FY13: 23.8mmt)
-
mmt = million metric tonnes.
-
Based on eastern Australia’s wheat, barley, canola and sorghum production estimates, using the average of Australian Crop Forecasters’ October 2014 report and ABARES September 2014 report.
-
Grain exports includes bulk and containers.
-
Average of country grain inload (carry-in + receivals) and outload (carry-in + receivals – carry-out) + ports grain and non-grain. exports handled. See appendix for further detail.
11
Marketing – lower grain production and competition for grain
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$M FY14 FY13
Revenue 1,907 2,169
EBITDA 36 54
Interest expense [(2)] (16) (17)
PBTDA [(2)] 20 37
Marketing inventory [(3)] 186 151
Marketing Volumes (mmt) [(1)]
Domestic sales 6.9
International sales 6.1 6.2
5.5
4.4
3.6 3.3 2.7 4.1 3.9
1.5 1.1
2.1 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.3
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
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-
Earnings lower due to lower grain production in eastern Australia, greater competition for grain and margin pressure
-
6.2mmt delivered sales[(1)] 2.3mmt domestic, 3.9mmt export and international
-
Marketing inventory of $186M[(3)]
-
~50% of marketed grain acquired from growers and ~85% sold to end users
-
Increasing contribution from international offices and Western Australia and South Australia sales
-
Delivered tonnes including bulk and container sales, Pools and UK’s Saxon Agriculture.
-
Interest expense treated as part of cost of goods sold. Marketing’s performance measured as PBTDA.
-
Marketing’s grain inventory predominantly funded via separate short-term debt facilities. See slide 18 for further details.
12
Malt – continued high capacity utilisation and underlying improvements
| $M | FY14 | FY13 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,049 | 977 |
| EBITDA(1) | 125 | 101 |
| EBIT(1) | 79 | 62 |
| Capital Expenditure | 36 | 43 |
Malt Sales (mmt)
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1.32 1.28 1.30
1.07 1.09
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
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-
Sales of 1.30mmt
-
Continued high capacity utilisation above 90%
-
Result benefitting from implementation of strategic initiatives
-
Favourable impact from foreign exchange rates translation and export competitiveness
-
Rationalisation of malt footprint in Germany with closure of Sangerhausen plant
-
Includes Port of Vancouver compensation receipts of $4.6M in FY14 ($4.0M in FY13).
13
Oils – solid result and strategic initiatives on track
| $M | FY14 | FY13 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 937 | 962 |
| EBITDA | 73 | 75 |
| EBIT | 47 | 50 |
| Capital Expenditure | 64 | 25 |
Crushing & Refining Sales (mmt)[(1)]
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Foods
Oilseeds
0.23 0.23 0.20
0.24
0.26 0.25
0.31 0.32 0.33
0.25 0.27 0.26
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
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-
Lower earnings from Foods offset by strong performances in Oilseeds, Liquid Terminals and complementary businesses
-
Oilseeds: sales volumes of 0.33mmt[(1)] ; higher volumes than prior year
• Foods : sales volumes of 0.20mmt[(1)] ; lower volumes than prior year and lower margins due to sales mix
-
Liquid Terminals : continued high capacity utilisation above 95%; stable earnings under long term agreements
-
Complementary businesses :
performing in line with expectations; solid contributions from liquid feeds and commodities management businesses
- Sales volumes for GrainCorp Oilseeds (crushed oil and meal) and GrainCorp Foods (refined oil products). FY09 to FY12 includes GrainCorp Oilseeds’ sales volumes for each 12 months ended 31 March and GrainCorp Foods’ sales volumes for each 12 months ended 30 June.
14
Allied Mills – challenging milling market conditions
| $M (60%) JV Share | FY14 | FY13 |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 27 | 27 |
| Equity profit(1) | 10 | 12 |
| Shareholder loan interest received |
1 | 1 |
| Net Asset Value(2) | 180 | 170 |
60% Net Asset Value ($M)
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180
170
159
129 136 144
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
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- Contributions from value add
product initiatives
- Challenging milling market conditions
• To support value add product strategy, acquired The Pastryhouse in New Zealand a leading international brand in frozen pastry products
-
Tullamarine expansion of frozen bakery products underway
-
GrainCorp’s share of net asset value
$180M
- Allied Mills 60% share of NPAT. Excludes shareholder loan interest received. 2. FY14 includes 60% of Shareholders Equity ($161M) and Shareholder Loan ($19M).
15
Balance Sheet and Capex
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Strong and flexible balance sheet
Core Debt[[(1) ]] $M
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Core Debt [[(1) ]] $M • Core debt increasing as
expected and in line with
Short-term
71 89 debt less
9 79 Marketing implementation of strategic
and Oils
inventories initiatives
132 26
43
565 558 595 593 601 Long-term • FY14 Core Debt [(1)] of $483M
debt
342 340
278
• FY14 Core Gearing of 22%
(37)
(256) (254) (222) (255) (134) (206) Cash • Core Gearing target of <25%
(312) (350)
• Debt facilities matching with
asset life
FY12
FY11 HY12 FY12 Pro HY13 [(4)] FY13 HY14 [(4)] FY14
•
forma [(3)] HY14 marketing inventory
9 218 16 320 415 411 422 483 Core Debt [(1)] funding supplemented with
Core
1% 13% 1% 16% 20% 19% 19% 22% Gearing [(2)] cash
Core Debt /
0.05x 0.53x 0.04x 0.67x 0.99x 1.04x 1.26x 1.65x
EBITDA
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-
Core Debt = Total Debt less Cash less Marketing and Oils grain and oilseed inventory.
-
Core Gearing = Core Debt / (Core Debt plus Equity).
-
FY12 Pro forma Core Debt / EBITDA includes Oils acquisition debt and FY12 EBITDA as detailed in the ASX Announcement dated 28 August 2012. 4. HY EBITDA based on last twelve months ('LTM') ending 31-Mar. Includes Oils LTM.
17
Commodities inventory funded with specific commodity inventory facilities
Commodities inventory[(1)] ($M)
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Marketing & Oils grain and oilseed inventory
829
Short-term debt 792
572 577
528 519
498
387
365
338 353
322 312
264
238
218
180 188 168
85 89
56
FY09 HY10 FY10 HY11 FY11 HY12 FY12 HY13 FY13 HY14 FY14
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Supplemented short term debt with cash
Supplemented short term debt with cash
Marketing and Oilseed funding strategy
- Marketing’s grain trading activities and Oils’ oilseed and tallow positions are
predominantly funded with specific short term commodity inventory debt facilities:
-
Match debt with asset life
-
Fluctuates with seasonal grain purchases and underlying soft commodity prices
Treatment
-
Marketing’s performance measured as PBTDA → interest treated as part of cost of goods sold
-
Commodity inventory funding recognised as Operating Cash Flow match funding purpose
-
Commodities inventory excludes Malt barley and Malt inventory held for processing activities. Variance between commodities inventory and short-term debt reconciles with “Short-term debt less Marketing and Oils inventories” on prior slide.
18
Capex supporting safety, network efficiencies and strategic initiatives
Capex[(1)] $M Depreciation & Amortisation $M
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Stay-in-business 167
Growth
141
122
112 96
106
71
63
53
63
70 71
53 59 49
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
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Depreciation
127
Amortisation
119
24
24
91
78 18
72
17
16
103
95
73
61
56
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
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-
$111M[(2)] invested to progress strategic initiatives in FY13 and FY14 representing ~35% of capex program for announced initiatives excluding Project Regeneration
-
FY15 capex will include ~$160M – $200M growth capex
-
Stay-in-business capex increased from FY12 due to inclusion of Oils
-
Depreciation & amortisation higher from FY12 due to inclusion of Oils and recent capex program
-
Minority investment in Five Star Flour Mills not included in FY14 capex
-
Excluding acquisitions.
-
See slide 36 for further details.
19
FY15 Outlook
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Grains outlook – lower grain production eastern Australia
Market fundamentals
GrainCorp FY15 outlook
-
Eastern Australian crop production estimate of 16.2mmt[(1)] is below normal (FY14: 17.2mmt; FY13: 19.4mmt)
-
Domestic demand for grain in eastern Australia of ~10mmt will be satisfied first
-
Exportable surplus significantly below normal at ~6.0mmt (FY14: ~7.9mmt; FY13: ~9.4mmt)
-
Potentially higher proportion of supply directly to domestic customers
-
Queensland and northern NSW sorghum crop dependent on summer rains
-
Carry-in of 1.9mmt significantly lower than recent years (FY14: 2.3mmt; FY13: 4.3mmt)
-
Lower grain production likely to result in belownormal upcountry grain receivals
-
Expecting lower grain export volumes resulting from below-normal exportable surplus
-
Increased complexity for grain outload task
-
Year to date receivals of 2.5mmt[(2)]
-
Year to date exports of 0.2mmt[(3)] and 4.3mmt booked on the shipping stem[(4) ] expecting low execution rate in 2015
-
Continuing strong international grain demand
-
Lower eastern Australia production volumes and continued competition to originate grain
-
Strong domestic feed demand driven by drought conditions in Queensland and northern NSW
-
Challenging given lower production and significant competition for grain in eastern Australia
-
Targeting sales originating from Western Australia and South Australia with slots booked on shipping stems
-
Continue targeting additional grain origination opportunities outside Australia
-
Eastern Australia’s wheat, barley, canola and sorghum production estimates, using the Australian Crop Forecasters’ October 2014 report. 2. Wheat, barley, canola, sorghum received up country as at 10 November 2014.
-
Wheat, barley, canola and sorghum exports to 12 November 2014. Wheat, barley, canola and sorghum shipping stem bookings as at 12 November 2014. Reflects Year-To-Go bookings to 30 September 2015.
21
Lower grain production likely to result in lower S&L volumes
| Drivers (mmt) | FY14 | FY15 Outlook |
FY15 **YTD(1) ** |
FY15 Outlook | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storage & Logistics | Eastern Australia Grain Production |
17.2 | 16.2(2) | • Grain production forecast below normal and lower thanprioryear |
|
| Grain carry-in (1-Oct) | 2.3 | 1.9 | • Below average and lower than recent years • Expected to result in lower storage revenue and smaller exportprogram |
||
| Country network receivals |
8.0 | 2.5(3) | • Expected to be lower than prior year • 2.5mmt(3) receivals year to date |
||
| Grain exports | 4.4 | 0.2(4) | • Expected to be lower than prior year • 0.2mmt(4) exports year to date • 4.3mmt(5) booked on the shipping stem expecting low execution rate in 2015 |
-
YTD reflects Year-to-Date.
-
Eastern Australia’s wheat, barley, canola and sorghum production estimates, using the Australian Crop Forecasters’ October 2014 report. 3. Wheat, barley, canola, sorghum received up country as at 10 November 2014.
-
Wheat, barley, canola, sorghum exports to 12 November 2014.
-
Wheat, barley, canola and sorghum shipping stem bookings as at 12 November 2014. Reflects Year-To-Go bookings to 30 September 2015.
22
Processing outlook – well placed through strong competitive position
Market fundamentals
GrainCorp FY15 outlook
-
Global barley crop production ~140mmt[(1)] (FY14: 145mmt)
-
Weather related barley production issues in Canada and USA
-
• Beer demand in mature markets continues to
-
Beer demand in mature markets continues to soften and slower growth in developing markets
-
Continued demand for quality malt
-
Forward sales of 1.1mmt YTD
-
Sales expected to be consistent with FY14
-
Continued strong capacity utilisation above 90% supported by malt portfolio position
-
Potential increase in unrecoverable processing and transport costs related to barley production issues
-
Continued incremental benefits from strategic initiatives being realised
-
Australian canola crop production estimate of ~3.4mmt[(2) ] (FY14: 3.7mmt)
-
Growing domestic and international demand for canola oil
-
Continued competition in crushing and refining
-
Continued demand for bulk liquid terminals capacity
-
High capacity utilisation for crushing
-
Refining volumes stabilising
-
Consistently high capacity utilisation across bulk liquid terminals
-
Complementary contributions from Liquid Feeds and Commodity Management businesses
-
World barley production estimates. Source: United States Department of Agriculture’s website: accessed 11 November 2014.
-
Australian canola production estimate, using the Australian Crop Forecasters’ October 2014 report.
23
Strategic Initiatives Updates & CEO View
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Focus on corporate objectives
Manage variability
Deliver growth
Improve returns
EBITDA by segment[(1)] $M
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FY09
Malt
0% Allied
13%
Marketing
17%
S&L
70%
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FY14
Allied
8% S&L
21%
Oils
22%
Marketing
11%
Malt
38%
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Return on Equity %
EBITDA and NPAT[(2)] $M FY09 FY14 6yr Avg 304 293 160 131 95 63 EBITDA NPAT
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Annual ROE %
Rolling 5 yr avg ROE %
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14.4%
13.0%
11.2%
10.1%
6.6%
5.4%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
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Growth in total EBITDA and NPAT but on a per share basis, growth relatively flat
Some improvement through the cycle but greater reliability required
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Strategic initiatives targeting optimisation and / or growth in all segments
- Underlying EBITDA. Excludes corporate costs.
25
- Underlying EBITDA and NPAT. Includes corporate costs.
Strategic initiatives targeting optimisation and growth in reliable earnings
| Storage | & Logistics | Marketing | Malt | Oils | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer service |
Customer focussed |
Operations excellence |
Network footprint |
|||
| Initiatives | Non-grain opportunities |
Network rationalisation and revitalisation growth |
Global model | Liquid terminals growth |
||
| Port flexibility | Broaden origination footprint |
Niche market growth |
Integration |
|||
| Capex(1) | FY13 & FY14 Balance |
~$200M | ~$215M 155 |
~$515M ~$404M |
||
| ~$50M ($M) 16 34 |
200 | ~$15M 15 |
~$35M 20 15 |
60 | $111M |
- See Slide 36 in appendix for a detailed breakdown.
26
Storage & Logistics initiatives to deliver more efficient network and improved customer service
Updates
Network rationalisation and revitalisation
-
On track with all elements of Project Regeneration
-
Site closures according to plan
-
New cluster model implemented
-
Export Direct in place with significant uptake from customers
-
Detailed rail optimisation planning underway
-
Engagement with government encouraging and continuing
Port flexibility – Code of Conduct
-
Ports Code of Conduct in place providing a:
-
Level playing field for bulk grain terminals in eastern Australia
-
Pathway for reduced regulation in the future
-
ACCC exemption for Carrington terminal in Newcastle
-
ACCC has outlined process to seek further exemptions under their guidelines
Improving customer service
- Majority of initiatives implemented including increased mobile stackers and weighbridges, and site improvements; wagon loading optimisation consistently delivering according to plan and embedded within the business
Non-grain opportunities
- Range of non-grain opportunities being explored and scoped
Project Regeneration on track
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Code of Conduct providing level playing field and potential ACCC exemptions
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Marketing initiatives to deliver global view and broadening grain origination footprint
Updates
Broaden grain origination footprint
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Increased contribution from international offices, Western Australia and South Australia
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Recently developed small scale container packing facility in Strathmore, Canada
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Exploring additional grain origination opportunities
Strathmore container packing facility established
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Five Star Mills investment
Customer focussed growth
- Benefits from minority investment in leading Egyptian flour miller Five Star Flour Mills
Enabling technology
- Global risk and trading platform rolled out in Australia, Germany and Canada
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Malt initiatives to improve efficiency and pursue growth in niche markets
Updates
Operations excellence
- Progress targeting cost reduction and other efficiencies energy, labour, water, waste
Niche market growth
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Continued strong demand for quality malt in craft and distilling markets in North America and Scotland respectively
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Further potential growth in craft sector
Global model
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Corporate office relocated to Vancouver Washington, USA
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Implementation of IT system nearing completion
Calgary malt plant water usage improvement project delivered
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Oils initiatives to optimise processing footprint and grow liquid terminals capacity
Updates
Network footprint
-
~$125M optimisation project on track
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Several construction milestones achieved at West Footscray
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Detailed planning at Numurkah with construction to commence in early CY15
Liquid terminals expansions
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~$70M growth projects on track
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Fremantle and Port Kembla projects complete with a substantial proportion of capacity leased
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Pinkenba project progressing according to plan with strong fundamentals and underlying demand
Liquid terminal projects on track Port Kembla and Fremantle complete
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Integration
-
Final stages of IT integration nearing completion including SAP
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implementation
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CEO view
First Impressions
Immediate Focus
Outlook
-
Commitment to our values
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“Zero Harm – Safe for Life”
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Passionate people
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Focus on customers
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Execute on our portfolio of organic strategic initiatives
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Strong focus on capital management and investment discipline
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Strong fundamentals through the cycle
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Well positioned along the grain chain
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Enhance our capabilities and explore opportunities to build further on our model
Deliver on our strategic initiatives and
explore opportunities to build further on our model
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Questions
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Appendix
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Significant items
| Significant items(1) ($M) | Segment | EBITDA | D&A | Net Interest |
Tax | NPAT | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying 293.3 (126.5) (40.1) (32.2) 94.5 |
|||||||
| Claims and losses S&L (27.5) 8.3 (19.2) Increased allowance for claims due to higher likelihood of claims arising due to low grain volumes in the network, an expected second below- normal grain production year and due to the emptying of closed sites and consolidation of stock under Project Regeneration. |
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| Restructuring costs S&L, Oils (23.0) 6.9 (16.1) Storage & Logistics network rationalisation and Oils network optimisation costs. |
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| Impairment of assets S&L, Malt, Oils (11.7) 2.1 (9.6) Storage & Logistics network rationalisation, Oils network optimisation and a site closure in GrainCorp Malt. |
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| Takeover response costs & acquisition and integration costs Corporate 0.6 0.1 0.7 Costs related to responses to ADM takeover proposals. Reversal of provision related to Oils acquisition. |
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| Total Significant Items (61.6) 17.4 (44.2) |
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| Statutory 231.7 (126.5) (40.1) (14.8) 50.3 |
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Grain volumes FY13 and FY14
| Volume driver (mmt) | FY13 | FY14 | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain carry-in (1 Oct) | 4.3 | 2.3 | • Grain stored at start of period • FY14 carry-in below average of ~3mmt |
| Country network receivals |
10.4 | 8.0 | • ~46% share of production(1) • Lower receivals due to lower grain production in eastern Australia |
| Grain exports handled | 8.3 | 4.4 | • Lower exportable surplus resulting in lower grain exports • Includingbulk and containers |
| Non-grain exports | 1.9 | 1.9 | • Exports include woodchips and cottonseed and mineral sands • Does not include imports (eg orange juice, meals and fertiliser) |
| Grain carry-out (30 Sep) | 2.3 | 1.9 | • Grain stored at period end |
| Throughput(2) | 23.8 | 15.7 | • Average of country sites in and out, and ports grain and non- grain exports handled |
| Domestic grain outload | 6.3 | 5.7 | • Higher proportion grain direct to domestic consumers |
| Grain received atport | 2.2 | 1.7 | • Grain received direct atport ex-farm and other bulk handlers |
-
Based on eastern Australia’s wheat, barley, canola and sorghum production estimates, using the average of Australian Crop Forecasters’ October 2014 report and ABARES September 2014 report.
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Average country grain inload (carry-in + receivals) and outload (carry-in + receivals – carry-out) + ports grain and non-grain exports handled.
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Capex plan supporting strategic initiatives
Strategic initiatives capex plan by business unit ($M)
| Business Unit |
FY13 and FY14 Capex |
FY15 Capex Plan |
Capex Balance |
Capex Total |
Initiatives announced and underway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storage & Logistics (a) |
16 | ~4 – 10 | ~24 – 30 | ~50 | • Customer service • Non-grain opportunities • Ports flexibility |
| Storage & Logistics(b) |
– | ~35 – 40 | ~160 – 165 | ~200 | • Network rationalisation and revitalisation |
| Marketing | 15 | – | – | ~15 | • Customer focussed growth • Broaden origination footprint |
| Malt | 20 | ~10 – 15 | ~0 – 5 | ~35 | • Operations excellence • Global model • Niche marketgrowth |
| Oils | 60 | ~95 – 105 | ~50 – 60 | ~215 | • Integration • Network footprint • Liquid terminalsgrowth |
| Total | 111 | ~144 – 170 | ~234 – 260 | ~515 |
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Eastern Australia competitive landscape
| Upcountry Storage | Capacity |
|---|---|
| GrainCorp | ~20mmt |
| Competitors | ~10mmt |
| On-farm | ~10mmt |
| Total | ~40mmt |
| Production / Exports | Production / Exports |
|---|---|
| Eastern Australia grain production |
~18mmt |
| Domestic demand | ~10mmt |
| Exportable surplus | ~8mmt |
Upcountry Storage
Competitors
Ports
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GrainCorp Port Competing Port Announced Port
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----- Start of picture text -----
QLD
On farm storage
Other bulk handlers
Domestic demand
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Grain Export Capacity
| GrainCorp | ~15.0mmt |
|---|---|
| Competitors(1) | ~5.0mmt |
| Container exports | ~3.5mmt |
| Total | ~23.5mmt |
NSW Other bulk handlers On farm storage Domestic demand VIC Other bulk handlers On farm storage Domestic demand
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- Including competing ports announced at Port Kembla and Geelong.
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Upcoming events and activities
| Date | Event / Milestone | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 – Jan 15 | Weekly Harvest Updates | Online http://www.graincorp.com.au/investors- and-media/media/harvest-bulletins |
| 18 Dec 14 | Annual General Meeting | Sydney & Webcast http://www.graincorp.com.au/investors- and-media/presentation-and- events/annual-general-meetings |
| 14 May 15 | HY15 Results Release | TBA |
| 12 Nov 15 | FY15 Results Release | TBA |
| 18 Dec 15 | FY15 AGM | TBA |
| TBA | 2015 Investor Day | TBA |
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