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GOODMAN GROUP — Investor Presentation 2011
Sep 20, 2011
64998_rns_2011-09-20_e7ca42d2-4afd-46d1-bc1e-ec027b0d35a7.pdf
Investor Presentation
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21 September 2011
The Manager Company Notices Section ASX Limited Exchange Centre 20 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000
Dear Sir
GOODMAN GROUP (GOODMAN OR GROUP) – ASIAN OPERATIONS OVERVIEW
Attached is a presentation providing an overview of Goodman’s Asian operations as part of the Group’s participation in the CLSA Investors’ Forum in Hong Kong.
Yours sincerely
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Carl Bicego
Company Secretary
Level 17, 60 Castlereagh Street Sydney NSW 2000 | GPO Box 4703, Sydney NSW 2001 Australia Tel +61 2 9230 7400 | Fax +61 2 9230 7444 | [email protected] | www.goodman.com Goodman Limited ABN 69 000 123 071 Goodman Funds Management Limited ABN 48 067 796 641 AFSL Number 223621 as responsible entity for Goodman Industrial Trust ARSN 091 213 839
Goodman Group
Asian operations overview
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September 2011
building momentum + delivering opportunities
Important notice and disclaimer
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- This document has been prepared by Goodman Group (Goodman Limited (ABN 69 000 123 071) and Goodman Funds Management Limited (ABN 48 067 796 641) (AFSL Number 223621) as the Responsible Entity for Goodman Industrial Trust (ARSN 091 213 839)). This document is a presentation of general background information about the Group’s activities current at the date of the presentation. It is information in a summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is to be read in conjunction with the Goodman Limited Annual Financial Report lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Goodman Group’s other announcements released to the ASX (available at www.asx.com.au). It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with professional advice, when deciding if an investment is appropriate.
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- This presentation is not an offer or invitation for subscription or purchase of securities or other financial products. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities in the United States or to any “US person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (Securities Act) (US Person)). Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States or to US Persons absent registration or an exemption from registration. The stapled securities of Goodman Group have not been, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any state or jurisdiction of the United States.
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- This announcement contains certain "forward-looking statements". The words "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "project", "forecast", "estimate", "likely", "intend", "should", "could", "may", "target", "plan" and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Indications of, and guidance on, future earnings and financial position and performance are also forward-looking statements. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of forecast information. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Group, that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements.
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- All figures are as at or for the year ended 30 June 2011 unless otherwise stated. All values are expressed in Australian currency unless otherwise stated. Conversion rate for AUD/USD of 1.0377 (as at 16 September 2011).
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Contents
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Section 1 Overview
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Section 2 Greater China + Section 3 Japan
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Section 4 Asia funds platform + Section 5 Outlook
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Appendices
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Fund profiles
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Top 20 customers - Asia
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Key China cities
3
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Section 1+
Overview
Interlink, Hong Kong
4
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Goodman Group overview
Asian economics
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- “own + develop + manage” premium industrial property and business space throughout Asia Pacific and Europe
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Fastest growing global economies:
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IMF forecasts China real GDP growth to average 9.5% p.a. in 2012-2015
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Supports rental growth and demand for warehouse space
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- Global team of over 800 people in 31 cities
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- Epicentre of container trade growth – mainland ports of China are expected to handle 44% of Asia Pacific container volume by 2015[2]
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- Largest listed industrial property group in Australia and third largest listed industrial property group globally (by market cap)[1]
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- Asia has 9 of the busiest 10 ports in the world – by total cargo volume[3]
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- A$10 billion (US$10 billion) global development pipeline (built-out value)
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- Total assets under management of A$18 billion (US$19 billion)
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- Manager of 12 unlisted and one listed property fund
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- Global operating platform:
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supported by strategic investor and customer relationships
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provides scale, diversification and the ability to pursue a broad range of opportunities
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well positioned to continue Asian expansion
Note: Properties includes only stabilised investment properties.
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1 As at 19 September 2011 based on a market capitalization of A$4.7 billion (US$4.9 billion)
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2 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (2007), Regional Shipping and Port Development – Container Traffic Forecast 2007 Update 3 American Association of Port Authorities
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4 J-REP is Goodman’s platform in Japan and is a 50/50 strategic alliance between Goodman and Macquarie (Macquarie Goodman Japan), which owns 72% of J-REP
5
Asia highlights
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| + | Managed fund co-investments and other financial investments of A$328 million (US$340 million) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| + | Group’s 50% interest in the Hong Kong Interlink project acquired by CPPIB for HK$2.26 billion (US$290 million) in June 2011 – capital | ||
| Own | to be reinvested in new development opportunities across Greater China and Japan | ||
| + | Ownership strategy pursued through managed fund investments rather than direct property | ||
| + | Largest warehouse space provider in the Hong Kong new territories | ||
| + | A$2.3 billion (US$2.4 billion) in total investment assets under management | ||
| + | 45 completed properties under management | ||
| Manage | + | Diversified local and international customer base – including Sinotrans, DHL and NYK Logistics | |
| + | 11 institutional investors across 4 unlisted managed funds with an average investment size of over A$100 million (US$104 million) | ||
| (including CPPIB’s investment in Interlink) | |||
| + | Rebranding of Japanese management platform to Goodman Japan currently underway | ||
| + | A$602 million (US$625 million) of work in progress (34% of A$1.8 billion (US$1.9 billion) global WIP) | ||
| + | Development opportunities in excess of A$1.7 billion (US$1.8 billion) (built-out value) | ||
| Develop | + | A$100 million (US$104 million) in development land in China (excluding Langfang) | |
| + | Langfang development progressing through master planning process – targeting formal Provincial level government approval in 2012 | ||
| + | Acquisition of 60,000 sqm Osaka Bay development site (post 30 June 2011) – consistent with the Group’s strategy of selective | ||
| acquisition of prime parcels of land suitable for the development of high quality, modern logistics and distribution facilities | |||
| + | China Investment Corporation strategic investment in Goodman Group (~18% on a fully diluted basis) | ||
| + | 10 years experience in the Asian market – listed A-REIT on the Singapore Exchange in 2002 | ||
| Corporate | + | Continue to leverage off global operating platform – strong growth forecast for Asia with ambition to be amongst the top three industrial property providers |
|
| + | Looking to explore new markets over the medium term | ||
| + | Team of 252 employees on the ground in Greater China and expanding |
6
Asia contribution
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- Asia operations contributed 18% of EBIT in FY2011 – Asia is a key growth driver of Goodman’s earnings for FY2012 and beyond
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- Series of Asia focused funds investing in high quality real estate and development assets:
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Goodman Hong Kong Logistics Fund
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Macquarie Goodman Japan Logistics Fund (to be rebranded Goodman Japan Logistics Fund)
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Goodman China Logistics Holding
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CPPIB’s Interlink investment
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- Forecast to increase the Group’s existing 9% capital allocation to the Asian business
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Section 2+
Greater China
Dynamic Cargo Centre, Hong Kong
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China industrial real estate market
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+ Undersupply of warehouse space per capita:
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Current supply of logistics facilities in the US is >13 times that of China
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Of this, modern logistics facilities account for <1% of total supply
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Supply limited to a small number of foreign developers and investors
+ Growth potential:
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Demand supported by encouraging trade and retail sales figures – retail sales grew at a CAGR of 22% between 2005 and 2010
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Strong domestic consumption translates into demand for modern logistics facilities
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China’s expanding middle class has caused the bulk of demand for industrial space to come from manufacturing and logistics companies
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Growing demand from e-commerce customers
Source: CBRE
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- While logistics properties along China’s coastline are more advanced, new logistics hubs are emerging in inland China due to growing domestic consumption and ‘Go West’ policy for manufacturing:
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Goodman’s target hubs are Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu and Chongqing
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Coastal logistics driven by exports, interior markets by consumers
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- Infrastructure development enabling new logistics locations:
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Particularly in newly emerged transport hubs/urban fringes
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Interior provinces have been given policy directives and cost incentives
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Aided by RMB2 trillion infrastructure program (2008-2020)
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Source: CBRE
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Source: CBRE, Bloomberg, Macquarie
Development activity
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Key metrics
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- Goodman has significantly increased its commitment to Greater China with over 400,000 sqm of commenced developments and secured land sites
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Forecast to increase to 600,000 sqm by FY2013
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50% sale of Interlink provides the capital to pursue new opportunities in targeted cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu and Chongqing
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Langfang site now covers 10 sq km and is progressing through the master-planning stage – targeting formal approval in 2012
September WIP by area
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| As at September 2011 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Work in progress (A$bn) | 0.6 | |
| Work in progress (m sqm) | 0.4 | |
| Pre-commitment (%) | 60 | |
| Yield on cost (%) | 8.8 |
| Kunshan Lujia Logistics Centre |
Kunshan Lujia Logistics Centre |
|---|---|
| Land area | 61,909 sqm |
| Lettable area | 38,138 sqm |
| Contracted owner | GCLH |
| End value | RMB121m / US$18.9m |
| Completion date | May 2011 |
| Status | ~90% leased and under option |
Note: images are artist’s impressions and may be subject to change.
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Major development projects
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Beijing Airport
Logistics Centre
(phase 2)
Land area 48,055 sqm
Lettable area 26,048 sqm
Contracted owner GCLH
Expected completion value RMB106.1m / US$16.4m
Expected completion 3Q 2012
Status Concept design submitted for approval. Tender in September
with construction scheduled to start October 2011
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| Pudong Airport | |
|---|---|
| Logistic Centre | |
| Land area | 172,260 sqm |
| Lettable area | 42,800 sqm (phase 1); 151,000 sqm (phases 2 & 3) |
| Contracted owner | GMG |
| Expected completion value |
RMB205.4m / US$31.8m (phase 1) |
| Expected completion | 3Q 2012 (phase 1); end-2014 (phase 2/3) |
| Status | Construction commenced on phase 1 of 42,800 sqm in May 2011. Piling is almost complete with superstructure started |
| Kunshan Yushan | |
|---|---|
| Logistic Centre | |
| (phase 2) | |
| Land area | 52,686 sqm |
| Lettable area | 28,608 sqm |
| Contracted owner | GCLH |
| Expected completion value |
RMB96.8m / US$15.1m |
| Expected completion | 3Q 2012 |
| Status | Construction to commence November 2011 |
| Land area | 48,055 sqm |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 26,048 sqm |
| Contracted owner | GCLH |
| Expected completion value | RMB106.1m / US$16.4m |
| Expected completion | 3Q 2012 |
| Status | Concept design submitted for approval. Tender in September with construction scheduled to start October 2011 |
| Kunshan Jinxi Logistics Centre |
|
| Land area | 120,000 sqm |
| Lettable area | 46,693 sqm (phase 1); 27,507 sqm (phase 2) |
| Contracted owner | GMG |
| Expected completion value | RMB210.7m / US$32.9m |
| Expected completion | 3Q 2012 (phase 1) |
| Status | Construction to commence October 2011 – Schenker precommit |
Note: images are artist’s impressions and may be subject to change.
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Major land sites
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Raffles education zone
Tsinghua University site
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Langfang, Beijing
Mixed use business park including office, modern logistic, infrastructure, residential, international boarding school, international academy and leisure.
On track for Langfang Government to submit to Hebei Province, Concept Masterplan and the Cooperation Agreement as part of an application for Land and Planning Quota award, with target approval in 2012.
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Chengdu Longquan Logistics Centre
| Land area | 130,000 sqm |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 80,300 sqm |
| Contracted owner | GMG |
| Expected completion value | RMB267.4m / US$41.8m |
| Expected completion | 4Q 2012 |
| Status | Construction to commence in Q1 2012 |
Initial 32 hectares secured to develop now.
Note: images are artist’s impressions and may be subject to change
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China landbank[1]
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Total
Land area 0.8 mil sqm
Development sites and land
area under offer 2 mil sqm GFA 0.4 mil sqm
Estimated end US$230 mil
GFA 1 mil sqm value
Estimated end value US$700 mil
+
Greater
Beijing [2]
Land area 0.3 mil sqm
GFA (sqm) 0.2 mil sqm +
Henan Province
Estimated end US$80 mil
+
value Greater
Western/Middle + Shanghai
China Chengdu & Land area 0.7 mil sqm
Chongqing
GFA 0.5 mil sqm
Estimated end US$300 mil
Land area 0.2 mil sqm value
GFA 0.1 mil sqm
Estimated end US$70 mil
value
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Development sites and land under offer
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Includes Tianjin, Beijing and only the initial 32 hectares at Langfang
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Interlink development case study
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- World-class 224,000 sqm modern warehouse development currently under construction in the Tsing Yi port district
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Expected completion in January 2012 – on schedule and budget
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Topping out occurred on 29 August 2011
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- First major logistics facility to be developed in Hong Kong in almost 10 years – on completion will be the:
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Fourth largest warehouse in Hong Kong
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Only environmental rated logistics/industrial building in Hong Kong
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- Significant location benefits include:
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Ease of access to ports and airport – less traffic congestion than traditional Kwai Chung port area
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Adjacent to Container Terminal 9 (30% of cargo movements) and proposed Container Terminal 10 – will provide superior carrier access
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- Strong customer demand from major logistics providers seeking to rationalise space:
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- 81% of GLA pre-committed
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Major global customers include DHL Supply Chain (DHL), Yusen Air & Sea Services (Yusen) and Chanel
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- In June 2011, CPPIB agreed to acquire Goodman’s remaining 50% interest for HK$2.26 billion on a fixed price basis:
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CPPIB will fund its share of the development until completion
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On completion, Goodman will provide asset management and property services on terms consistent with existing fund arrangements
Note: images are artist’s impressions and may be subject to change
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Section 3+ Japan
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Kobe, Japan
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Industrial real estate market
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- Structural changes and obsolescence provide a strong platform for growth:
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Strong customer led demand and increased real estate outsourcing by corporates
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Limited supply of modern, investment grade logistics product in Japan
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- Since the Global Financial Crisis, companies are increasingly choosing to outsource their distribution operations to third party logistics operators (“3PLs”) in order to lower operating costs:
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The growth of the 3PL sector has driven demand for larger and more modern facilities located in key distribution hubs as these operators seek to improve efficiencies
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- Vast majority of Japan’s existing logistics assets are too small, inefficient and outdated
*Modern logistics facility defined as >10,000sqm GFA and <10 years old Source: JLL
- Supply of new investment grade facilities constrained despite pent up demand
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Logistics market supported by resilient demand and structural trends
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- Demand for modern earthquake resilient buildings sustaining logistics demand
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- Wide gulf persists between modern and older obsolete stock
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Move towards third party facilities to bolster demand
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- Supply outlook constrained by building regulations and funding access
Source: CBRE, Macquarie
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Source: Bloomberg, METI
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Development activity
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- Looking to acquire a number of new development sites over the next 12-18 months:
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Signed contract in August 2011 for Osaka Bay Development (over A$300 million expected end value)
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Readily executable opportunities together with this development project have a combined end value of approximately A$1.25 billion
Major development projects
Moriya
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Osaka Bay Development
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Land area 29,000 sqm
Lettable area 33,000 sqm
Contracted owner Third party
Expected completion December 2011
High specification refurbished and new warehouse space for
Status/description Nippon Express - located approximately 50 kilometers north-east
of Tokyo on the Joban Expressway
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| Land area | 60,000 sqm |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 130,000 sqm |
| Contracted owner | GMG |
| Expected completion | September 2013 |
| Status/description | Modern four storey logistics facility offering dual ramp access |
Note: images are artist’s impressions and may be subject to change.
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Section 4+ Asia funds platform
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Kunshan Yushan, China
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Asia funds platform
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- Dedicated fund managers and local support teams – combined with the expertise of the broader Goodman Group
| Goodman’s Asia funds | Goodman’s Asia funds | Goodman’s Asia funds | Goodman’s Asia funds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHKLF | GCLH | MGJLF | Interlink | |
| Total assets | A$1.5 bn | A$0.2bn | A$0.7bn | A$0.3bn1 |
| GMG co-investment | 20.0% | 20.0% | n/a | n/a |
| GMG co-investment | A$0.2bn | A$0.03bn | n/a | n/a |
| Number of properties | 13 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Occupancy | 99% | 97% | 95% | 81% |
| Weighted average lease expiry |
2.4 yrs | 3.7 yrs | 6.0 yrs | 4.9 yrs |
| Weighted average cap rate | 6.5% | 8.7% | n/d2 | n/d2 |
1 Forecast end value on completion
2 Not disclosed
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Section 5+ Outlook
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Moriya, Japan
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Outlook
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OWN
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- Growth in Asia AUM expected to be strong driven by investor and customer demand
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- Goodman has established relationships with significant global investors and has a proven ability to raise new external equity
MANAGE
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- Increasing equity commitments for GCLH
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- Target launch of Japan development fund by December 2011
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- Strategic partners seeking additional opportunities for core real estate assets alongside Goodman in Asia
DEVELOP
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- Goodman delivered >A$2.0 billion p.a. of developments globally in FY2008 / FY2009 with negligible contribution from Asia
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- Expect to return to historical completions over the medium term, albeit with a greater contribution from Greater China / Japan
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- Development program in China and Japan to drive organic growth opportunities
CORPORATE
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- Targeting equal regional contributions from Asia, Australia / New Zealand and Europe over the medium term
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- Asia development activity expected to significantly drive earnings growth in FY2012 and FY2013
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- Co-investment and development activity in Asia to be internally funded by a mix of recycling non-core assets and retained earnings
21
A endices+ pp Fund profiles
Global Gateway, Hong Kong
Goodman Hong Kong Logistics Fund
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Overview
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- Established in April 2006, Goodman Hong Kong Logistics Fund (GHKLF) is an unlisted fund that invests in institutional grade logistics / industrial properties in Hong Kong
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- The Fund manages over 681,000 sqm across Hong Kong’s industrial regions, plus 50% ownership of a 224,000 sqm premier logistics development Interlink, currently under construction
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- GHKLF is the largest industrial property owner in Hong Kong by space available
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- GHKLF has a first right of refusal over Goodman’s acquisitions and divestments in Hong Kong
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1 As at 30 June 2011
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2 Calculated as net debt / total assets 3 Stabilised portfolio only
Key metrics[1]
| Total assets | A$1.5 billion |
|---|---|
| Interest bearing liabilities | A$0.3 billion |
| Gearing2 | 20.3% |
| Customers | 184 |
| Number of properties | 13 |
| Occupancy | 99% |
| Weighted average lease expiry | 2.4 years |
| Weighted average cap rate3 | 6.5% |
| GMG co-investment | 20% |
| GMG co-investment | A$0.2 billion |
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Goodman Hong Kong Logistics Fund
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Example properties
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Cargo Consolidation Complex Kwai Chung, New Territories, Hong Kong
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Goodman Shatin Logistics Centre Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong
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Tsuen Wan International Centre Tsuen Wan, New Territories, Hong Kong
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Global Gateway Tsuen Wan, New Territories, Hong Kong
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Macquarie Goodman Japan Logistics Fund
Key metrics[1,2]
Overview
| Total assets | A$0.7 billion |
|---|---|
| Customers | 19 |
| Number of properties | 15 |
| Occupancy3 | 95% |
| Weighted average lease expiry4 | 6.0 years |
| GMG co-investment (%) | n/a |
| GMG co-investment ($m) | n/a |
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- Macquarie Goodman Japan Logistics Fund (MGJLF) invests in high quality logistics assets in established warehouse, distribution and logistics locations in Japan
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- Assets managed by J-REP (a majority owned affiliate of Macquarie Goodman Japan) expected to be rebranded Goodman Japan on 26 September 2011
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- J-REP provides access to an extensive Japanese management platform, with offices in Tokyo and Osaka
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- Modern portfolio with average age of approximately four years
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1 Based on combined MGJLF and Japan Wholesale Fund vehicles as at 30 June 2011
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2 As reported in the MGJLF Q1 2011 report (May 2011) 3 Based on contracted leases as at 30 June 2011
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4 WALE of leased portfolio to next break
25
Macquarie Goodman Japan Logistics Fund
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Example properties
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J-REP Logistation Osaka Nanko Greater Osaka
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J-REP Logistation Ashikaga Greater Tokyo
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J-REP Eniwa Hokkaido
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J-REP Logistation Kobe Greater Osaka
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Goodman China Logistics Holding
Key events
Key metrics[1]
| Total assets | A$0.2 billion |
|---|---|
| Interest bearing liabilities | A$0.05 billion |
| Gearing2 | 25.0% |
| Customers | 21 |
| Number of properties | 6 |
| Occupancy | 97% |
| Weighted average lease expiry | 3.7 years |
| Weighted average cap rate (gross) | 8.7% |
| GMG co-investment (%) | 20% |
| GMG co-investment ($)3 | A$0.03 billion |
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- Goodman China Logistics Holding’s (GCLH) portfolio consists of 6 stabilised properties and 1 development project at key logistics hubs in the Greater Shanghai and Beijing region with capital allocation for further investments
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- Completed the acquisition of Goodman Beijing Airport Logistics Centre to provide a solid footprint in the capital city of China
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- GCLH’s first development, Goodman Lujia Logistics Centre reached practical completion in May 2011
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- Strong focus on leasing and asset management initiatives with occupancy at 97% and WALE of 3.7 years
Top 10 customers make up 91% of portfolio income[1]
Asset diversification (by value)[1]
WALE of 3.7 years (by income)[1]
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1 As at 30 June 2011
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2 Calculated as net debt / total assets 3 Includes shareholder loan
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Goodman China Logistics Holding
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Example properties
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Kangqiao Distribution Centre Shanghai
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Fengxian International Logistics Park Shanghai
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Taopu Industrial Estate Shanghai
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Goodman Beijing Airport Logistics Centre Beijing
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A endices+
pp
Top 20 customers –
Asia
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J-REP Logistation Osaka Nanko, Japan
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Top 20 customers – Asia
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1 As at 30 June 2011, based on percentage rental income Asia
30
A endices+ pp Key China cities
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Kunshan Jinxi Logistics Centre, China
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Key China cities
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Mainland China city profiles
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| Tier-1 cities | Key inland Tier-2 cities | |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Shanghai Beijing |
Chengdu Chongqing |
| Resident population mil |
23.0 19.6 |
14.0 28.8 |
| Urbanization Rate | 88.6% 85.0% |
65.5% 49.9%* |
| Nominal GDP RMB bn USD bn |
1,687 1,378 264 216 |
555 789 87 124 |
| Real GDP Growth %y/y 3Y CAGR % |
9.9 10.2 9.3 9.8 |
14.0 17.1 13.9 15.5 |
| Retail sales RMB bn 3Y CAGR % |
604 623 16% 18% |
242 288 21% 20% |
| Total Trade Value USD bn 3Y CAGR % |
685 301 9.5% 16.0% |
25 12 37.3% 18.6% |
*2009 Source: Local Chinese Statistics Bureaus
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