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GOODMAN GROUP — Interim / Quarterly Report 2013
Jun 19, 2013
64998_rns_2013-06-19_0dd9c0b5-6a30-4907-b3cf-e208c9da23d5.pdf
Interim / Quarterly Report
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Goodman’s development work in progress reaches $2.2bn, matched with $2.5bn of third party equity
Date 20 June 2013 Release Immediate
Goodman Group (Goodman or Group) today provided an operational update for the nine months ended 31 March 2013.
Key operational highlights
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- Leased 1.9 million sqm across the Group and managed funds, representing $186 million of annual rental income
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- Occupancy maintained at a high 96% across the Group and managed funds, achieving a weighted average lease expiry of 4.7 years
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- Development work in progress of $2.2 billion across 70 projects, with a forecast yield on cost of 8.8%
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- Secured $1.5 billion of new development commitments and completed $1.1 billion of projects in the year to date
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- 71% of new developments pre-committed and 78% pre-sold
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- External assets under management (AUM) increased to $17.4 billion
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- $2.5 billion of new third party equity raised year to date
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- Completed GAIF equity raising, with total demand of over $1 billion
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Fully subscribed US$300 million equity raising by GHKLF to part fund acquisition of interest in ATL Logistics Centre Hong Kong
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- Maintained focus on capital management initiatives at a Group and managed fund level
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Completed $4.5 billion in debt capital market and bank facilities, including GELF inaugural €500 million Eurobond issue
Goodman Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Greg Goodman said: “Goodman has experienced solid operating activity levels for the nine months to 31 March 2013 continuing to build on the accelerating business activity in our key markets over the first half of the year and the focused execution of our day to day operational activities by our teams globally. Significant leasing activity across the Group and managed funds reflects the robust underlying property fundamentals and in turn our high occupancy levels and retention rates.”
Goodman Group
Goodman Limited | ABN 69 000 123 071 Goodman Funds Management Limited | ABN 48 067 796 641 | AFSL Number 223621 as responsible entity of Goodman Industrial Trust | ARSN 091213 839 Level 17, 60 Castlereagh Street, Sydney NSW 2000 | GPO Box 4703, Sydney NSW 2001 Australia Tel +61 2 9230 7400 | Fax +61 2 9230 7444 Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited | Company No. 1700359 | ARBN 155 911 149 | a Hong Kong company with limited liability Suite 2008, Three Pacific Place, 1 Queen’s Road East, Hong Kong | Tel +852 2249 3100 | Fax +852 2525 2070
[email protected] | www.goodman.com
Goodman’s development business is benefitting from the ongoing undersupply of prime logistics space and a number of structural changes taking place globally, including the rapid growth in e- commerce. This has driven the growth in Goodman’s current development work book to $2.2 billion.
“Overall development demand has been strong in all of our markets, particularly in Australia where we have secured a number of large pre-commitments, increasing our development work book to $970 million. In China, demand continues to run ahead of supply, while in Europe, activity reflects the high customer demand which has been led by e-commerce retailers and the automotive sector. As a result, this provides us with good visibility into our development volumes and growth well into FY2014.”
During the quarter, Goodman benefitted from the strong support of its equity and debt capital partners, with Goodman Australia Industrial Fund completing its equity raising and securing demand in excess of $1 billion. Goodman Hong Kong Logistics Fund separately raised US$300 million of fully subscribed new equity to part fund the acquisition of an interest in ATL Logistics Centre Hong Kong. Initiatives were also undertaken in line with the Group and its managed funds’ continued focus on diversifying debt funding sources, with Goodman European Logistics Fund completing its inaugural €500 million Eurobond issue. Across the Group and managed funds, a total of $4.5 billion in debt capital market and bank facility related initiatives were completed over the nine months to 31 March 2013.
Mr Goodman added: “The strong investment demand from our capital partners over the quarter has seen $2.5 billion of new third party equity raised in the year to date, which is an exceptional result . We now have $3.8 billion in uncalled debt and equity, ensuring our Managed Funds are well positioned to participate in development opportunities from the Group and broader market.”
Strategy and outlook
“We are committed to the prudent yet active execution of our stated business strategy, and to the delivery of consistent quality product. Our strong competitive position is maintained through the diversity of our global operating platform, which is a key advantage, and combined with recently completed initiatives positions us well to take advantage of the demand for high quality industrial space. As a result of the continued strength of our third quarter operating activity, we expect 2HFY13 earnings per security to be in line with 1HFY13 of 16.2 cents, which will result in a full year earnings per security of 32.4 cents, slightly above our initial guidance of 32.3 cents.
“Yesterday we announced that the estimated final distribution will be 9.7 cents per security, resulting in a full year distribution of 19.4 cents, up 8% on the prior full year.” Mr Goodman said.
Attached is an Investor Update presentation, which provides additional information on Goodman’s year-to-date FY2013 operational highlights, together with updates from each of its regions. The presentation forms part of an investor update briefing being hosted by Goodman today.
- Ends -
For further information, please contact; Greg Goodman Group Chief Executive Officer Tel: + 612 9230 7400
About Goodman
Goodman Group is an integrated property group with operations throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, North America and Brazil. Goodman Group, comprised of the stapled entities Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited, is the largest industrial property group listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and one of the largest listed specialist fund managers of industrial property and business space globally.
Goodman’s global property expertise, integrated own+develop+manage customer service offering and significant fund management platform ensures it creates innovative property solutions that meet the individual requirements of its customers, while seeking to deliver longterm returns for investors.
Investor update
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Global partner + Global platform
Important notice and disclaimer
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- This document has been prepared by Goodman Group (Goodman Limited (ABN 69 000 123 071) Goodman Funds Management Limited (ABN 48 067 796 641; AFSL Number 223621) as the Responsible Entity for Goodman Industrial Trust (ARSN 091 213 839) and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited (Company Number 1700359; ARBN 155911142 – A Hong Kong company with limited liability)). This document is a presentation of general background information about the Group’s activities current at the date of the presentation. It is information in a summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is to be read in conjunction with Goodman Group’s other announcements released to ASX (available at www.asx.com.au). It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with professional advice, when deciding if an investment is appropriate.
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- This document contains certain "forward-looking statements". The words "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "project", "forecast", "estimate", "likely", "intend", "should", "could", "may", "target", "plan" and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Indications of, and guidance on, future earnings and financial position and performance are also forward-looking statements. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of forecast information. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Group, that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. Neither the Group, nor any other person, gives any representation, warranty, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward looking-statements in this document will actually occur.
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- This document does not constitute an offer, invitation, solicitation, recommendation, advice or recommendation with respect to the issue, purchase, or sale of any stapled securities or other financial products in the Group.
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“ ”
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- This document does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities in the United States or to any US person (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (Securities Act) (US Person)). Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States or to US Persons absent registration or an exemption from registration. The stapled securities of Goodman Group have not been, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any state or jurisdiction of the United States.
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Contents
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- Section 1 Quarterly operational highlights + Section 2 Regional updates
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New Zealand
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Australia
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Japan
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Greater China
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Continental Europe
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United Kingdom
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Brazil
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North America
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- Section 3 Funds management + Section 4 Outlook
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Appendices
3
Section 1+ Quarterly operational highlights
Quarterly operational highlights¹
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- Structural changes in occupier market driving development workbook to $2.2bn as at 31 March 2013
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Australian workbook exceeding expectations on back of large pre-commitments, Australian WIP at $970 million
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Japanese workbook to increase on the back of Nagoya commencement
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China demand ahead of supply with occupancy at 95% (including completed developments)
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Geographic diversification driving incremental growth
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E-commerce a positive shift for logistics real estate market, customers include VIP Shop, Zalando and Amazon
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Urban renewal opportunities being realised
Development WIP ($bn)
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CAGR = 18%
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- Continued investment demand from global capital partners
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GAIF equity raising completed, securing total demand in excess of $1 billion
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GHKLF equity raising of US$300 million fully subscribed to acquire interest in the US$1.8bn ATL Logistics Centre Hong Kong
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Raised $2.5 billion of new third party equity YTD FY13
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$1 billion of equity initiatives currently underway
Total AUM ($bn)
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CAGR = 11%
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- For the nine months ended 31 March 2013
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Quarterly operational highlights[1 ]
Own Develop
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- High occupancy maintained at 96% across all markets
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- Retention at 75% and WALE of 4.7 years
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- 1.9 million sqm leased year to date – representing $186 million in annual rental income across the Group and managed funds
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- Current WIP at $2.2 billion across 70 projects with a forecast yield on cost of 8.8%
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- Development commitments of $1.5 billion and $1.1 billion of completions year to date + 71% of new projects pre-committed and 78% pre-sold
Manage
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- External assets under management (AUM) increased to $17.4 billion
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- Strong support from equity and debt capital partners – $2.5 billion of new third party equity raised year to date across Managed Funds
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- Funds well positioned to participate in development opportunities from the Group and broader market, $3.8 billion in uncalled debt and equity
Corporate
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- Continued focus on diversifying debt sources – GELF completed €500 million inaugural Eurobond issue + Completed $4.5 billion in debt capital market and bank facilities across the Group and Managed Funds
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- 2HFY13 earnings per security expected to be in line with 1HFY13 of 16.2 cents which will result in a full year earnings per security of 32.4 cents
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- Yesterday announced estimated final distribution of 9.7 cents per security resulting in a full year distribution of 19.4 cents, up 8% on the prior full year
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For the nine months ended 31 March 2013
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Section 2 + Regional Updates
Interlink, Hong Kong Metcash, Bungaribee, Australia
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New Zealand+ John Dakin, CEO New Zealand
New Zealand – market dynamics
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Occupier demand
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Market share
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Highbrook Business Park, East Tamaki
GMT development activity – NLA
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- Small number of quality developers
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- Economic activity and business confidence improving
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- Holding key sites and access to capital remain critical success factors
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- Existing portfolio 96% occupied – 22,600 sqm leasing completed and 100,300 sqm under negotiation since 31 March 2013
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- Established local track record combined with Goodman brand leading to additional large scale opportunities eg Fonterra
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- Development demand has lifted markedly in FY14 - circa 75,000sqm currently under active negotiation
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- Majority of development pre-leased with limited speculative development in select locations
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Land bank
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Highbrook Business Park, East Tamaki
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- Key sites include Highbrook Business Park, now 100% owned by GMT
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- Access to 105 ha land bank across Auckland and Christchurch
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- Leading developer in South Auckland market and Greenlane office corridor
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New Zealand continued
| As at 31 March 2013 (A$) | GMT | GMG |
|---|---|---|
| Total assets | $1.7 bn | $0.03 bn |
| GMG co-investment | 18% | - |
| GMG co-investment | $0.2 bn | - |
| Number of properties/estates | 22 | 1 |
| Occupancy | 96% | - |
| Weighted average lease expiry | 5.3 years | - |
Development
Highbrook
Leasing
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Carter Holt Harvey, Christchurch
M20 Business Park, Wiri
Highbrook Business Park, East Tamaki
| Tenant | Frucor Beverages Limited |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 17,150 sqm |
| Lease term | 12 years |
| Contracted owner | GMT 100% |
| Valuation | $20.7 million |
| Description | + Strategically located + Existing customer relocating from older facility + Completed March 2013 |
| Tenant | Carter Holt Harvey |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 20,381 sqm |
| Lease extension | 9 years |
| Contracted owner | GMT |
| Transaction type | Renewal |
| Rent | $1.1 million pa |
| Rent (average) | $56 sqm |
| Incentive | 6 months (6%) |
| Description | 100 hectare estate located in Auckland’s East Tamaki |
|---|---|
| Owner | 100% GMT on back of 99% unit holder support |
| Funding | Acquisition funded through mixture of cash, GMT units and GMT deferred units |
| Status | Over 250,000 sqm of prime industrial and office assets completed |
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Australia+
Section 2+
Results overview Jason Little,
General
Manager
Australia
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M7 Business Hub, Eastern Creek
Australia – market dynamics
Customer base
Infrastructure upgrade
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Aerial Moorebank precinct
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- Development WIP as at March 2013 of $970 million
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- Infrastructure projects focused around : – Sydney Port upgrade
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- Thirteen of the last seventeen developments with existing customers
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Rail intermodal terminals
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Road upgrades
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- Leading owner of business space in Sydney and Melbourne markets
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- Estimated 3,300 trucks a day taken off Sydney roads between Port Botany and Moorebank by shifting to rail
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- Backed up by leading land bank in core logistic markets
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- M4 / M7 interchange Sydney’s logistic hotspot
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Urban renewal
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Aerial Port Melbourne precinct
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- Goodman has 14 active urban renewal projects located in Sydney and Melbourne
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- Including five of the eight Urban Activation Precincts identified by the NSW Government (www.planning.nsw.gov.au)
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- Taking supply from established markets
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- Higher density being allowed for existing sites. Multi storey development being assessed in South Sydney and Port Melbourne
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- Relocation of customers to new markets
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- Our role is focussed on planning and maximising land values. Projects could have gestation periods of 5 – 10 years
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Australia continued
| As at 31 March 2013 (A$) | GAIF | GTA | KGIT | GADF | GMG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | $5.1 bn | $3.0 bn | $0.7 bn | $0.2 bn | $2.4 bn |
| GMG co-investment | 30.0%¹ | 19.9% | 40.0% | 20.0% | - |
| GMG co-investment | $0.8 bn¹ | $0.4 bn | $0.2 bn | $0.05 bn | - |
| Number of properties | 115 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 45 |
| Occupancy | 97% | 96% | 100% | 100% | 96% |
| Weighted average lease expiry | 6.0 years² | 3.6 years | 6.9 years | 13.8 years | 3.3 years |
- Post closing of GAIF equity raising 2. WALE includes development assets Development Leasing
Leasing
Urban renewal
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Key Link industrial Estate, Minto, NSW
Bungarribee Industrial Estate, Eastern Creek, NSW
Kent Road, Mascot, NSW
| Tenant | Super A Mart Pty Ltd |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 52,165 sqm |
| Lease term | 12 years |
| Contracted owner | GTA |
| Transaction type | New lease |
| Rent | $4.55 million |
| Rent (average) | $87 psm pa |
| Incentive | 7 months gross (4.8%) |
| Tenant | Toll Ipec |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 53,305 sqm |
| Lease term | 20 years |
| Contracted owner | GAIF / GMG |
| End value | $130 million |
| Description | + Located on the junction of M4 and M7 + Pre-let facility with estimated completion of March 2014 + Cross dock parcel facility |
Contracted owner GTA (sold) Description 3 ha site adjacent to Mascot railway station Current zoning 10(b) mixed use – commercial / warehouse Proposed zoning Included in Urban Activation Precinct Development + 1,000 – 1,300 apartments potential + 6,500 sqm retail Other identified + Cambridge Steet, Epping Goodman sites in + Delhi Rd, North Ryde Urban Activation + Talavera / Waterloo Road, Macquarie Park Precincts + Carter Street, Homebush
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Japan+ Paul McGarry CEO Japan
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Goodman Kobe, Japan
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Japan – market dynamics
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Land prices
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Government stimulus
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Nikkei 225 Index 1 year performance
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Growth in commercial land values
25%
Tokyo
20%
Osaka
15%
10% Nagoya
5%
0% Year
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
-5%
-10%
-15%
YoY change in land value
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Occupier demand
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Vacancy rate for mid/large logistics properties
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Source: Bloomberg
Source: MLIT
Source: CBRE
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- Following a landslide election win in 2012, the Abe Government announced a JPY20 trillion (A$200 bn) stimulus package
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- The economic plan includes hyper-easy monetary policy, large fiscal spending and steps to spur long-term growth including deregulation
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- Capital markets initially responded strongly and despite recent volatility and a pull back the Nikkei is up 46%¹ since 1 October 2012
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- Demand for logistics space showing strong growth particularly in the e-commerce, apparel, fashion and convenience store sectors
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- For the first time in 5 years commercial and residential property values rose
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- Logistics land prices increasing
Q1 2013 vacancy rate for modern logistics properties in Tokyo reached a low of 2.8% not seen since 2004
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- Driven by international and domestic investors shifting allocations away from bonds to expected growth assets such as property
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- Q1 2013 vacancy rate for modern logistics properties in Osaka maintained at 0.0% first reached in March 2012
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- Moderate growth in rents expected
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As at 17 June 2013
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Japan – continued
| As at 31 March 2013($A) | GJCF | Projected end value ($A) | GJDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | $0.5 bn | $0.7 bn | |
| GMG co-investment | 20%¹ | 50% | |
| GMG co-investment | $0.1 bn | $0.2 bn GMG total commitment | |
| Number of properties | 9 | 4 | |
| Occupancy | 99% | - | |
| Weighted average lease expiry | 3.8 years | - |
- Based on current investor demand expected to complete in July 2013
Development
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Goodman Sakai, Osaka Bay
| Transaction type | Large scale multi-tenant development |
|---|---|
| Land area | 60,000 sqm |
| Lettable area | 130,000 sqm |
| Contracted owner | GJDP |
| Location | Prime Greater Osaka |
| Description | + Modern 4-storey logistics facility under construction and due for completion in April 2014 + Leasing to high quality tenants pre- leasing ahead of schedule |
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Modern 4-storey logistics facility under construction and due for completion in Description April 2014
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Leasing to high quality tenants preleasing ahead of schedule
Development
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Goodman Obu, Nagoya
| Transaction type | Large scale multi-tenant development |
|---|---|
| Land area | 26,000 sqm |
| Lettable area | 51,000 sqm |
| Contracted owner | GJDP |
| Location | Prime Nagoya |
| Description | + 53% pre-committed to a high quality Japanese 3PL + Modern 4-storey logistics facility construction completion due end of 2014 |
Development
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Goodman Mizue, Tokyo Bay
| Transaction type | Large scale multi-tenant development |
|---|---|
| Land area | 30,000 sqm |
| Lettable area | 59,000 sqm |
| Contracted owner | GJDP |
| Location | Prime Greater Tokyo |
| Description | + A prime development site in Kawasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture + Modern 4-storey logistics facility construction completion due end of 2014 |
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Section 3+ ~~Greater China+ Capital~~ Management Philip Pearce, Initiatives Managing Director Greater China
Pudong International Airport Logistics Park, Shanghai, China
Greater China – market dynamics
E-Commerce
Modern warehouse facilities
Modern logistics facilities account for 2% of total market supply
China’s online shopping volume
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Domestic consumption
Hong Kong retail sales and Chinese visitors
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Source: CB Richard Ellis and JLL
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- Out of China’s total stock of 550 million sqm of storage space, only 13 million sqm comprises prime logistics facilities
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- Total logistics costs double the US as a percentage of GDP
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- Forecast to become the largest contract logistics market in the world
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- China’s pallet market is forecast to double by 2015
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- Strength of demand is representative of the fact that 95% of all Goodman properties (including completed developments) are leased
Source: I Research, Morgan Stanley Research
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- Demand for logistics facilities in China has been benefitting from the continuous growth of e-commerce market
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- Online retail sales have doubled every year since 2005 (5 year CAGR of 97%)
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- Online retail market is still in its infancy, B2C transactions are only 0.4% of retail sales, versus 3.2% in Japan, 4.0% in the US and 7.7% in the UK
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- Increasing number of middle class consumers in China is expected to drive further e- retailing growth
Source: HK Census & Stat. Deot, HK Tourism Board, HK
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- Hong Kong has been experiencing strong retail sales growth with a 10% increase in 2012
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- Correlation between retail sales growth and Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals which comprise c.72% of Hong Kong total tourist arrivals, 21% increase in 2012
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- Warehouse demand in Hong Kong continued to be driven by retailers and end users
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- Limited new land supply for logistics, with redevelopment of industrial stock expected to accelerate over longer term
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- China’s rapid increase in urbanisation rate is creating significant potential for the demand for goods and services
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Greater China continued
| As at 31 March 2013 (A$) | GHKLF | GCLH | CIIL | GMG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | $1.8 bn | $0.5 bn | $0.3 bn | $0.2 bn |
| GMG co-investment | 20% | 20% | - | 100% |
| GMG co-investment | $0.2 bn | $0.1 bn | - | $0.2 bn |
| Number of properties | 14 | 15 | 1 | 7 |
| Occupancy | 99% | 96% | 100% | 81% |
| Weighted average lease expiry | 2.9 years | 2.9 years | 3.8 years | 4.0 years |
| Land Procurement | Development | Acquisitions |
Goodman Wuqing E-Commerce Park
ATL Logistics Centre - Kwai Tsing Port HK
Chongqing Airport Industrial Park
| Lettable area | 185,101 sqm | Tenant | VIP Shop | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lettable area | 102,949 sqm | |||
| Site area | 283,913 sqm | |||
| Lease term | 5 years | |||
| Contracted owner | GMG | |||
| Contracted owner | GCLH | |||
| Completion value | $128 millon | |||
| Completion value | $50 million | |||
| Commentary | + Strategically located at Chongqing Airport Industrial Park which is in close proximity to Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport. + The site will be developed in 4 phases with estate completion in 2017 + Phase 1 approx 48,000 sqm construction to commence in Q4 2013 |
|||
| Commentary | + VIP Shop, one of China’s major e- commerce operators is listed on NASDAQ + Located in a well established industrial area in Tianjin + Pre-let facility with expected completion in August 2013 and January 2014 |
| Lettable area | 522,000 sqm | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| Value | US$450 million (25% ownership interest) | |
| Contracted owner | GHKLF | |
| Description | + Worlds largest logistics facility + 13 storey ramp up facility + 98% occupancy + Average passing rental of HK$69psf/month + Transaction primarily funded via a US$300m equity raising, which was fully subscribed by existing GHKLF investors + Settlement completed June 2013 |
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Continental Europe+ Philippe Van der Beken Managing Director Continental Europe
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Continental Europe – market dynamics
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Germany Supply
Insert relevant image here
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E - Commerce
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Rheinberg Logistics Centre, Germany
Munich Airport Logistics Centre, Germany
Arial of Port of Hamburg precinct
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- Overall European macro outlook remains one of uncertainty
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- Lack of prime space continues to drive demand and rents
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- E-commerce sales reached circa $250bn in 2012 (19% yoy growth )
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- Continued divergence between Southern Europe and countries in the West and North
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Upgrading operational assets to gain efficiencies are a key driver
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- European B2C e-commerce market (incl. UK and Eastern Europe) is the largest in the world
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- E-commerce is a key driver of development demand
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Germany represents 45% of Goodman’s $3.0bn of investment properties
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- 3.5bn parcels delivered annually to consumers across Continental Europe
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- Completions totalled 5.3m sqm in 2012 compared with 8.0m sqm in 2008
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- 50% of Goodman’s European development book is in Germany
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- Significant impact on logisitcs sector and logistics real estate market
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- Germany and France represented 66% of overall investment activity in 2012 in Continental Europe
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Continental Europe - continued
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| As at 31 March 2013 (A$) | GELF | GPH | GEBPF | GMG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | $2.3 bn | $0.2 bn | $0.2 bn | $0.4bn |
| GMG co-investment | 29.8% | 20% | 15% | - |
| GMG co-investment | $0.4 bn | $0.03bn | $0.01 bn | - |
| Number of properties | 93 | 6 | 3 | 23 |
| Occupancy | 97% | 100% | 71% | 97% |
| Weighted average lease expiry | 4.9 years | 7.5 years | 2.1 years | 3.7 years |
Market Acquisition
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Ipark, Bremen II Germany
| Tenant | Schenker |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 40,682 sqm |
| Lease term | 9 years |
| Transaction type | Market acquisition |
| Seller | Third party |
| Purchaser | GELF |
| Value | $35m |
Development
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Leipzig, Germany
| Tenant | Schenker |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 95,545 sqm |
| Lease term | 7 years |
| Transaction type | Forward sale |
| Seller | GMG |
| Purchaser | GELF |
| End Value | $58m |
Development
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Lauwin – Planque, France
| Tenant | Amazon |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 88,002 sqm |
| Lease term | 12 years |
| Transaction type | Pre let development |
| Seller | GMG |
| Purchaser | GPH |
| End Value | $64m |
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United Kingdom+ Charles Crossland, MD UK Logistics & Jim Johnston, MD UK Business Parks
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United Kingdom – market dynamics
| Land bank Logistics supply Hatfield Business Park, Hatfield Source: Gerald Eve |
Institutional investor demand | Institutional investor demand | Institutional investor demand | Institutional investor demand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year to date CY13 |
Institutions & Prop Co’s |
Private Investors |
Overseas | |
| Purchases £m |
4,980 | 350 | 5,208 | |
| Sales £m | 5,287 | 211 | 3,299 | |
| Net Investment £m |
(258) | 139 | 1,909 | |
| S P I Blli |
Source: Property Investor Bulletin
| Entity | Acres | Consented GLA (‘000 sqm) |
Primary Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABPP | 301 | 0.576 | 84% office |
| UKBP | 8 | 0.116 | 50% office |
| UKLOG | 634 | 1.100 | 100% industrial |
| TOTAL | 943 | 1.792 | 67% industrial 30% office 3% other |
Logistics
-
- Well located, long let, secure income continues to attract strong pricing from overseas investors
-
- Logistics supply extremely limited in core areas
-
- 70% of UK take-up during 2012 was pre-committed
-
- Investors beginning to move up risk curve in search of value in core locations
-
- UK Logistics currently has 1m sqft prelets / sales under offer
-
- Significant ‘value gap’ between prime and secondary expected to remain in medium term
Offices
-
- Polarised regional market with SE showing signs of improving demand from low base versus rest of UK
-
- Core consented land bank delivering in excess of $2.0 bn end value
-
- Targeting 15%+ of land bank for alternative ‘higher value’ uses
-
- Opportunities emerging for speculative office development in micro specific locations
-
- Additional unconsented landbank of 650+ acres held at minimal cost
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United Kingdom continued
| As at 31 March 20123(A$) | ABPP | GPH | GMG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | $1.4 bn | $0.04 bn | $0.7 bn |
| GMG co-investment | 43% | 20% | - |
| GMG co-investment | $0.3 bn | $0.01 bn | - |
| Number of properties | 25 | 3 | 14 |
| Occupancy | 91% | 100% | 91% |
| Weighted average lease expiry | 5.9 years | 3.6 years | 3.5 years |
Development
Asset Sale
| Tenant | PCL Logistics / Arla Foods Ltd |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 21,524 sqm |
| Lease term | 15 years |
| Owner | ABPP |
| End value | $49 million |
| Description | + Regional distribution centre + Index linked income + Completion due June 13 |
| Tenant | GB Gas Holdings Ltd (Centrica) |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 7,564 sqm |
| Lease term | 17 years (15 years term certain) |
| Owner | ABPP |
| End value | $42 million |
| Description | + Highly sustainable HQ office + Sale completed May 13 + Sale reflects 5.95% cap rate |
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Oxford Business Park
Leasing / Asset Sale
Hatfield Business Park
Land Sale
| Occupier | Hobbycraft Trading Limited |
|---|---|
| Lettable area | 19,811 sqm |
| Owner | GMG |
| Rent | $1.5 million pa |
| Lease term | 15 years |
| Description | + Property subsequently packaged up and sold at 6.97% cap rate + Occupancy of UK portfolio now 91% |
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-
Purchaser Persimmon Area 10 hectares + High value residential sale to major UK housebuilder
-
- Sale to fund infrastructure into the commercial element of the
-
Comments scheme which can provide 80,000 sqm of employment space and all currently under offer/sold.
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First Point, Burton
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Hinckley Commercial Park
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Brazil+ Danny Peeters, CEO Brazil
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Brazil– market dynamics
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Modern logistic space Domestic consumption Pricing
16,000,000 14,991,300 8.00% 20 8.00%
220
14,000,000 7.00% 7.00%
12,000,000 6.00% 15 6.00%
10,000,000 6x 5.00% 5.00%
8,000,00016x 4.00% 10 4.00%
3.00% 3.00%
6,000,000
2.00% 5 2.00%
4,000,000 2,476,651 1.00% 1.00%
2,000,000 13
0.00% 0 0.00%
- -1.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2013
MM sqm GDP (US$tn)
GDP growth (%) Market rent (BRL/sqm/mnth) Vacancy rate (%)
Source: World Bank and Economist Intelligence Unit Source: CB Richard Ellis and Jones Lang LaSalle
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GDP growth (%) Source: World Bank and Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 2H2012
-
- Less than 20% of existing stock is modern facilities with 10 – 12 metre metre ceiling heights and minimum floor capacity of 6 ton / sqm
-
- US has 16 times Brazilian class A stock
-
- Sixth largest economy in the world by GDP
-
- Growing middle class, increasing domestic consumption
-
- Young average age population driving economic growth
-
- Under supplied market for logistics assets with low vacancy rates
-
- Speculative development supported by lack of supply
-
- Appropriate risk versus return metrics + 20% development margins
-
- Appreciation of replacement cost by having development capabilities
27
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Brazil continued
| As at 31 March 2013 (A$) | WTGoodman |
|---|---|
| Total assets | $0.1 bn ($1.0 bn estimated end value) |
| GMG co-investment | 50% |
| GMG co-investment | $0.05 bn ($0.2 bn GMG total commitment) |
| Number of properties/estates | 4 |
Development
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International Business Park – Rio de Janeiro
| Land area | 288,333 sqm |
|---|---|
| GLA | 186,930 sqm over three phases |
| Use | Warehouse |
| End value | $ 290m |
| Description | Prime site close to airport and city centre of Rio de Janeiro |
| Target completion |
Construction commenced of phase I for 54,000 sqm to be completed CY13 |
Development
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Cajamar – Sao Paulo
| Land area | 675,645 sqm |
|---|---|
| GLA | 121,778 sqm over two phases |
| Use | Warehouse |
| End value | $ 177m |
| Description | Key site in a prime logistics region adjacent to the primary truck access route between Sao Paulo and Campinas |
| Target completion |
Calendar year 2015 |
Development
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Nova India – Rio de Janeiro
| Land area | 617,500 sqm |
|---|---|
| GLA | 255,357 sqm over four phases |
| Use | Warehouse |
| End value | $ 290m |
| Description | Key site west of Rio de Janeiro on east – west highway to Sao Paulo |
| Target completion |
Calendar year 2018 |
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North America+ Brandon Birtcher, CEO North America
North America – market dynamics
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Land procurement
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Demand
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Population within 10hr truck drive
-
- Occupiers reassessing national supply chain networks
-
- Land in class A, high absorption markets is a key differentiating factor
-
- Key focus deriving efficiencies and reducing costs; testing “same day” delivery
-
- Requires local people and contacts
-
- Becoming more competitive as US recovery continues
-
- Procter and Gamble, Kimberly-Clark, Amazon and Home Depot have requirements between 2 and 18 facilities all over 100,000 sqm
-
- Consider regional / local joint ventures to extract opportunities
-
- Goodman focused markets:
-
- E-Commerce requirements for over 30% of all US build to suit requirements during 2012
-
Los Angeles
-
San Francisco/Oakland
-
Seattle
-
- Less than 2% of warehouses over 50,000 sqm are vacant across North America
-
Central Pennsylvania
-
New York / New Jersey
-
Miami
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Pricing / Supply
Industrial Historical Deliveries 1983 - 2014
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Source: CoStar Property ® Future deliveries based on current under construction buildings
-
- Supply at all time lows leading to continued positive net absorption
-
- 14 consecutive quarters of net absorption since Q1 2010
-
- Development led approach continues to derive the best pricing outcome
-
- Lease length and strong tenant covenants remain well sought after by investors and trade at attractive yields
-
- Growing availability of development financing and equity means land and construction costs are starting to rise
-
- Rents increasing on back of low supply
-
- If assets are priced below replacement cost, Goodman has ability to transact
30
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North America continued
| As at 31 March 2013 (A$) | GNAP |
|---|---|
| Total assets | $0.2 bn ($0.4 billion estimated end value) |
| GMG co-investment | 55% |
| GMG co-investment | $0.1 bn ($0.5 billion GMG total commitment) |
| Number of properties/estates | 3 |
Development
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LA – Inland Empire sites
| Land area | 108 hectares / 267 acres |
|---|---|
| GLA | 440,946 sqm / 4.7 million sqf |
| Use | Warehouse |
| End value | $400 million |
| Description | 2 prime sites in California’s largest market |
| Target completion |
Calendar year 2015 |
Development
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Oakland Airport Distribution Centre, Oakland
| Land area | 7.7 hectares / 19 acres |
|---|---|
| GLA | 34,813 sqm / 374,725 sqf |
| Use | Warehouse |
| End value | $40 million |
| Description | Prime infill site close to Airport and Port |
| Target completion |
Calendar year 2013 |
Land procurement
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Target markets
| Land area under due diligence |
175 hectares / 432.5 acres |
|---|---|
| GLA | 673,000 sqm / 7,246,000 million sqf |
| Use | Warehouse and distribution |
| Estimated end value |
$600 million |
| Description | Prime sites adjacent to key infrastructure |
| Target completion |
Calendar year 2016 |
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Section 3+ Funds Management - Nick Kurtis, Group Head of Equities
Key capital partner trends
| + | Remains major priority for any new investment | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| High quality real | + | Major global cities are most favored | |
| estate | |||
| + | Core, vanilla property in highest demand | ||
| + | Ability to partner with provider that can deliver new | ||
| product off market | |||
| Access to pipeline | + | Allows for follow on investment without | |
| requirement to rely on on-market bidding | |||
| + | Ability to form Investment Committee with like | ||
| minded partners | |||
| Strong governance structure |
+ | Visibility over key decisions such as acquisition, disposal, development and finance |
|
| + | Usually structured as JV or Club vehicles | ||
| + | Strong financial alignment remains key – circa | ||
| coinvestment 20% minimum | |||
| Alignment of interests & property |
+ | Property expertise and skills remain keenly sought | |
| expertise | + | Focus on value generation from property skills – | |
| not economic engineering |
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Partnership equity and debt profiles
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-
- Significant partnership extensions over the past 12 months
-
- Focus remains on diversifying debt sources – Corporate ratings for major vehicles
-
GAIF: $4.9 bn 7 year extension to 2019
-
- Extend maturities in cost effective manner
-
GHKLF: $1.6 bn 7 year extension to 2020
-
- Ability to execute in all major financial markets
-
ABPP: $1.4 bn 5 year extension to 2017
Managed Funds maturity profile
$milllions
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Managed Fund debt maturity profile
$milllions
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34
Section 4+ Outlook
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Outlook and summary
| + | Leading global industrial property operator and fund manager | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | + | Focus on execution of a consistent and clearly enunciated strategy | |
| + | Customer service focus and asset management capabilities are key to business model | ||
| + | Consistency of product offering, earnings growth and strength of balance sheet | ||
| + | Global platform providing diversity and stability of earnings is a key advantage | ||
| + | High visibility into certainty of development earnings and growth | ||
| Outlook | |||
| + | Economies of scale being achieved in mature operating markets | ||
| + | Adapting to markets via pre-sold and pre-funded opportunities | ||
| + | Continued integration of Brazil and North America into the Goodman operating model | ||
| + | Focus on cost containment ensuring business overheads remain in line with growth outlook | ||
| + | Capital management a key priority | ||
| Summary | + | 2HFY13 earnings per security expected to be in line with 1HFY13 of 16.2 cents which will result in a full year | |
| earnings per security of 32.4 cents | |||
| + | Yesterday announced estimated final distribution of 9.7 cents per security resulting in a full year distribution of | ||
| 19.4 cents, up 8% on the prior full year |
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Appendix 1+
Leasing
M20 Business Park, New Zealand
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37
Leasing
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Across the Group and Managed Funds platform:
-
1.9 million sqm leased during the nine months ended 31 March 2013
-
Positive rental reversions of 4.1% on new leasing deals, driven primarily by Greater China
+ Occupancy maintained at 96%
| Division | Leasing area (sqm) | Net annual rent (A$M) | Average lease term (years) | Occupancy at 31 March 2013(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia – Direct | 167,645 | 20.0 | 2.8 | 96 |
| Australia – GAIF | 382,266 | 48.2 | 4.5 | 97 |
| Australia – GTA | 199,510 | 21.4 | 4.6 | 96 |
| New Zealand – GMT | 103,136 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 96 |
| Hong Kong – GHKLF | 240,377 | 33.5 | 4.5 | 99 |
| UK – ABPP | 9,224 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 91 |
| Europe – GELF | 588,151 | 33.7 | 2.9 | 97 |
| Other | 172,254 | 16.9 | 5.1 | 95 |
| Total | 1,862,563 | 185.8 | 96 |
38
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Appendix 2+ Developments
Kobe, Japan
Developments
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| YTDFY13 Developments | Completions | Commitments | Commitments | Work in progress | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value ($M) | 1,080 | 1,541 | 2,199 | ||||
| Area (m sqm) | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | ||||
| Yield (%) | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.8 | ||||
| Pre-committed (%) | 94 | 71 | 70 | ||||
| Weighted Average Lease Term (years) | 9.6 | 7.3 | 10.5 | ||||
| Development for Third Parties or Funds (%) | 93 | 78 | 84 | ||||
| Australia / New Zealand (%) | 44 | 58 | 49 | ||||
| Asia (%) | 12 | 14 | 23 | ||||
| Europe (%) | 44 | 19 | 23 | ||||
| Americas (%) | - | 9 | 6 | ||||
| Work in progress | On balance sheet | Third party funds | Total end value |
Third party funds | Pre committed | ||
| by region | end value | end value | % of total | % of total | |||
| $M | $M | $M |
|||||
| Australia / New Zealand | 15 | 1,053 | 1,068 |
99 | 87 | ||
| Asia | 111 | 397 | 509 |
78 | 21 | ||
| Europe | 225 | 275 | 500 |
55 | 99 | ||
| Americas | - | 122 | 122 |
100 | - | ||
| Total | 352 | 1,847 | 2,199 |
84 | 69 |
40
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Appendix 3+ Global Platform
Global platform
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42
thank+ you
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43