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Gjensidige Forsikring ASA

Earnings Release Oct 25, 2018

3606_rns_2018-10-25_08b76d7a-2bfe-4f42-b2a1-27d6bbb6d1cf.pdf

Earnings Release

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Gjensidige Forsikring Group

3 rd quarter 2018 results

25 October 2018

Results impacted by extraordinary weather conditions

  • Excluding NOK 93m for Gjensidige Bank, recorded as discontinued operation
  • Underwriting result NOK 573m
  • 1% premium growth
  • Weather-related frequency claims ~NOK 130-160m higher than for an average third quarter in Norway
  • Continued weakening of motor profitability in Norway
  • Positive profitability development outside Norway
  • Restructuring provision of NOK 80m
  • Good cost control

* Annualised, YTD

  • Financial result NOK 426m, return 0.8%
  • Return on equity 15.0%*

Combined ratio

Pre-tax profit

Operational highlights – focus on getting back on track in Norway

  • Group management rotation and changes
  • Focus on core operations, bank sale on track for closing Q119
  • Motor Norway pricing measures ahead of expected inflation
  • Continued high customer retention in Norway
  • Steady improvement outside Norway
  • Continuous cost efficiency measures, creating room for investments in technology, brand and skills

A B C D Churn (%) Customer score Motor customers, churn vs customer score Aug./Sept. 2018 Weighted avg churn

High customer retention in Norway

Keeping the best customers

Gjensidige tops reputation ranking in the financial sector in Norway

  • Highest score in the financial sector again
  • Number 8 ranking independent of sector
  • Among top 10 for the third consecutive year
  • Number 7 ranking on social responsibility and moral
  • 7 out of 10 Norwegians have a good overall impression of Gjensidige

*IPSOS Reputation-survey, includes 95 businesses in Norway, in 10 different sectors. Survey criteria: overall impression; social responsibility and moral; economy and profitability; marketing and information; environmental focus.

Financial performance

Results in Norway reflect extraordinary weather conditions - continued positive development outside Norway

1.0 per cent premium growth

Premium development Key drivers - premium development

  • Private +2.2%
  • Price increases, good competitiveness
  • Commercial +3.9%
  • Price increases
  • Denmark -3.8%
  • Negative 6.2% in local currency driven by portfolio reunderwriting in commercial lines
  • Sweden -15.4%
  • Negative 10.3% in local currency following repricing measures
  • Baltics +1.0%
  • Negative 3.8% in local currency due to portfolio restructuring and repricing

Higher loss ratio due to extraordinary weather conditions in Norway, large losses and lower underlying motor profitability

Loss ratio development Key drivers

  • Large losses and run-off gains higher than in Q317 and expected level
  • Higher underlying frequency claims loss ratio
  • Particularly strong Q317, tough comparison
  • Weather-related frequency claims ~NOK 130-160m (2.1-2.6 pp) higher than for an average Q3
  • Higher motor frequency claims level in Norway reflecting change in vehicle fleet – mitigating pricing measures continued through Q318

Large losses 5.2 percentage points - higher than expected

Large losses – reported vs expected Large losses per segment

CC = corporate centre. Large losses: Losses > NOK 10m. Weather related large losses are included. Large losses in excess of NOK 30.0m are charged to the Corporate Centre while up to NOK 30m per claim is charged to the segment in which the large loss occurred. The Baltics segment has, as a main rule, a retention level of EUR 0.5m. The Sweden segment has a retention level of NOK 10m.

Run-off gains 5.6 percentage points - higher than expected

Run-off net Run-off net per segment

CC = corporate centre

Continued good cost control - cost ratio 15.6 per cent - 14.3 per cent excluding restructuring provisions

NOK m

892 7 19 (11) (20)
888
(3) 67
886
953
7
01
2
3
Q
e
at
v
Pri
al
erci
m
m
o
C
k
ar
m
n
e
D
n
e
d
e
w
S
cs
alti
B
C
C
8
01
2
3
Q

Cost development Key drivers – cost development

  • Restructuring provisions, NOK 80m
  • Continued cost efficiency measures in all markets
  • Cost ratio 13.5% excluding Baltics and the restructuring provision

Pension operations post record profits Closing of bank sale in Q119 on track

46 46 47 48 49 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 NOK bn Gross lending

Gjensidige Bank ASA

Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring AS

Investment return of 0.8 per cent, reflecting market development

Investment return, free portfolio

Q3 2018 %
Fixed
income
0.4
Current
equities
2.3
PE funds 6.9
Property 1.4
Total free
portfolio
1.2

Investment return Portfolio mix as at 30.09.2018

Strong capital position - continued capital discipline

Strong capital position

NOK bn

Capital discipline

  • Capital buffers well within risk appetite
  • From Q318, reported solvency margins reflect the solvency best estimate claims provisions
  • Solvency margin in the legal perspective will, all else equal, decrease by ~10pp by year-end as the FSA requires some model changes
  • Solvency II related regulatory uncertainty persists
  • 30 September 2018 pro-forma legal Solvency II margin 262 per cent given sale of Gjensidige Bank

Capital > Capital requirement

Figures as at 30.09.2018. The legal perspective is the regulatory approved version of the partial internal model. Solvency margins reflect best estimate reserves. The figures are adjusted for a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit.

Financial targets and dividend policy from 2019 adjusted to reflect disposal of Gjensidige Bank*

Financial targets 2019-2022* Dividend policy from 2019*

Combined ratio 86-89 per cent

  • Still assuming average annual run-off gains ~ NOK 1 billion through 2022
  • Corresponding to 90-93 per cent given zero run-off gains
  • Cost ratio <15 per cent
  • Solvency margin 135-200 per cent
  • Based on the Partial Internal Model
  • Return on equity after tax >20 per cent
  • Corresponds to >16 per cent excl. run-off gains, comparable to the previous >15 per cent target including the bank

Gjensidige targets high and stable nominal dividends to its shareholders, and a payout ratio over time of at least 80 per cent of profit after tax. When determining the size of the dividend, the expected future capital need will be taken into account.

Over time, Gjensidige will also pay out excess capital.

Concluding remarks

Key takeaways

  • Q3 results impacted by extraordinary weather conditions
  • Continued positive development outside Norway
  • Focus on getting back on track in Norway price increases and continued good cost control
  • Turning point for loss ratio in motor Norway expected during 1H 2019
  • Strong capital position, exploring M&A opportunities

Roadshows and conferences post Q3 2018 results

Date Location Participants Event Arranged by
25 October Oslo CFO Jostein Amdal
EVP Group Staff and General Services, Janne Flessum
IRO Live Bjønness
Group lunch
Roadshow
ABG Sundal
Collier
26 October Frankfurt CFO Jostein Amdal
Head of
IR, Mitra H. Negård
Roadshow Deutsche Bank
26 October Copenhagen EVP Denmark, Mats Gottschalk
EVP Group Staff and General Services, Janne Flessum
Roadshow Danske Bank
28 November London CEO Helge L. Baastad
CFO Jostein Amdal
EVP Group Staff and General Services, Janne Flessum
Head of
IR, Mitra H. Negård
IRO Live Bjønness
Post-
CMD
Roadshow
DNB

Appendix

General insurance – cost ratio and loss ratio per segment

Private Commercial

General insurance – cost ratio and loss ratio per segment (cont'd)

Denmark Sweden

Baltics

Effect of discounting of claims provisions

Assuming Solvency II regime

Effect of discounting on CR – Q3 2018 Assumptions

  • Only claims provisions are discounted (i.e. premium provisions are undiscounted)
  • Swap rates in Norway, Sweden and Denmark
  • Euroswap rates in the Baltic countries

Large losses development

~ NOK 1.2bn in large losses* expected annually

Large losses per segment – actual vs expected

* Losses >NOK 10m. From and including 2012, the numbers include weather related large losses. 23

Run-off development

Expected average annual run-off gains of ~4 pp (~NOK 1bn) through 2022

Run-off % of earned premium

Quarterly underwriting results Seasonality in Nordic general insurance

*Reported UW result for Q1 2016 was NOK 1,251m. Adjusted for a non-recurring income of NOK 477m related to the pension plans, the UW result was NOK 774m.

** Reported UW result for Q3 2016 was NOK 712m. Adjusted for a non-recurring NOK 120m restructuring cost the UW result was NOK 832m.

25 *** Reported UW result for Q4 2016 was NOK700m. Adjusted for a non-recurring NOK 44m increase in provision for restructuring cost and NOK23m provision for increased pay-roll tac the UW result was NOK 767m

**** Reported UW result for Q3 2018 was NOK 573m. Adjusted for a non-recurring NOK 80m restructuring cost the UW result was NOK 653.

Investment strategy supporting high and stable nominal dividends

• Match portfolio

  • Duration and currency matching versus technical provisions (undiscounted)
  • Credit element for increased returns
  • Some inflation hedging
  • Free portfolio
  • Compounding and focused on absolute returns
  • Dynamic risk management
  • Tactical allocation
  • Active management fixed income and equities
  • Normal risk premiums basis for asset allocation and use of capital

Key characteristics

  • Limited risk appetite
  • Currency hedging vs NOK ~ 100%
  • Limit +/- 10% per currency
  • Marked-to-market recognition
  • Except bonds at amortised cost
  • Stable performance

Investment portfolio - asset classes and relevant benchmarks

Asset class Investments, key elements* Benchmark
Match
portfolio
Money market Norwegian money market ST1X index
Bonds at amortised cost Government
and corporate bonds
Yield provided in quarterly reports
Current bonds Mortgage, sovereign and corporate bonds, investment grade bond funds
and loan funds containing secured debt
IBOX COR
1-3 yrs
QW5C index
Free portfolio
Money market Norwegian
money market
ST1X index
Other bonds IG
bonds in internationally diversified funds externally managed and current
bonds
Global Agg
Corp
LGCPTRUH index
High Yield bonds Internationally diversified funds externally managed BOAML global HY
HWIC index
Convertible bonds Internationally diversified funds externally managed BOAML global 300 conv
VG00 index
/ Exogen
factors
Current equities Mainly
internationally and domestic diversified funds externally managed
MSCIAC
NDUEACWF
index
PE funds Oil/ oil-service/ general (Norwegian and Nordic funds) OSEBX index
/ oil price
Property 50% of Oslo Areal IPD index Norway / Exogen
factors
Other Miscellaneous

*See quarterly report for a more detailed description

Asset allocation As at 30.09.2018

Match portfolio Free portfolio

  • Carrying amount: NOK 34.4bn
  • Average duration: 3.4 years

  • Carrying amount: NOK 18.4bn

  • Average duration fixed-income instruments: 1.7 years

Stable contribution from the match portfolio

Asset allocation as at 30.09.2018 Quarterly investment returns*

Balanced geographical exposure

Match portfolio Free portfolio, fixed-income instruments

Credit and counterparty risk

  • The portfolio consists mainly of securities in rated companies with high creditworthiness (Investment grade)
  • Issuers with no official rating are mainly Norwegian savings banks, municipalities, credit institutions and power producers and distributors

Credit exposure Total fixed income portfolio

Split -
Rating
Match portfolio Free portfolio
NOK bn % NOK bn %
AAA 10.9 31.7 1.1 14.1
AA 3.1 9.0 1.0 12.1
A 4.7 13.6 2.1 26.6
BBB 1.8 5.1 1.2 14.8
BB 0.3 0.8 0.3 3.9
B 2.4 7.0 0.3 3.2
CCC or lower 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7
Internal rating* 7.9 22.8 1.5 18.8
Unrated 3.3 9.7 0.5 5.8
Fixed income portfolio 34.4 100.0 8.1 100.0
Split -
Counterparty
Match portfolio Free portfolio
NOK bn % NOK bn %
Public sector 4.9 14.4 2.1 26.6
Bank/financial institutions 15.8 46.0 3.6 44.2
Corporates 13.7 39.7 2.4 29.2
Total 34.4 100.0 8.1 100.0

Capital position per operational areas

(NOK bn) Legal
perspective
(Group)
Legal
perspective
(general
insurance)
Own partial
internal
model
(Group)
Own partial
internal model
(general
insurance)
Gjensidige
Pensjons
forsikring
Gjensidige Bank
Capital available 25.0 18.0 25.0 18.0 2.1 4.7
Capital
requirement
13.8 8.4 12.7 7.3 1.5 4.4
Solvency
margin
181% 214% 197% 246% 146% 105%

Figures as at 30.9.2018. The legal perspective is the regulatory approved version of the partial internal model. Solvency margins reflect best estimate reserves. The figures are adjusted for a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit. Allocation of capital to Gjensidige Bank is based on 17,0 per cent capital adequacy ratio.

Solvency II economic capital available

Bridging the gap between IFRS equity and Solvency II capital

Figures as at 30.9.2018. GPF = Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring. Deferred tax: All differences in valuation of assets and liabilities are adjusted for tax. No tax is assumed on the security provision. Miscellanious: Main effects are related to the guarantee scheme provision and different valuation of Oslo Areal.

Solvency II capital requirements

NOK
bn
Legal
perspective
(Group)
Own Partial
Internal
Model
(Group)
Capital
available
25.0 25.0
Capital charge for non-life and health uw
risk
6.8 6.4
Capital charge for life uw
risk
1.5 1.5
Capital charge for market risk 6.7 6.5
Capital charge for counterparty
risk
0.4 0.4
Diversification (4.1) (4.9)
Basic SCR 11.2 9.8
Operational
risk
0.8 0.8
Adjustments (risk-reducing
effect of
deferred tax)
(2.7) (2.4)
Gjensidige Bank 4.4 4.4
Total capital requirement 13.8 12.7
Surplus 11.2 12.3
Solvency ratio 181% 197%

Scope regulatory approved PIM

Figures as at 30.9.2018 The legal perspective is the regulatory approved version of the partial internal model. The figures are adjusted for a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit. Allocation of capital to Gjensidige Bank is based on 17.0 per cent capital adequacy ratio. The pie chart is based on allocated capital for the specified risk types within the Gjensidige Forsikring Group excl. Gjensidige Bank.

Solvency II sensitivities in legal perspective

Figures as at 30.9.2018. The legal perspective is the regulatory approved version of the partial internal model. Solvency margins reflect best estimate reserves. Total comprehensive income is included in the calculations, minus a formulaic dividend pay-out ratio of 70 per cent of net profit. UFR-sensitivity is very limited.

Subordinated debt capacity

36

Principles for capacity

Intermediate Equity Content Constraint
S&P 25% of TAC For the general
insurance group, both
Solvency II Tier 1 and
Tier 2 instruments are
classified as Intermediate
Equity Content. Capital
must be regulatory
eligible in order to be
included.
T1 T2 Constraint
SII Max 20% of
Tier 1 capital
Max 50% of
SCR less other
T2 capital
items
Must be satisfied at
group and solo level

Capacity and utilisation

  • Tier 1 remaining capacity is NOK 1.5-2.1bn
  • Utilised Tier 1 debt capacity: NOK 1.0bn
  • Tier 2 capacity is fully utilised for the insurance group
  • Utilised sub debt: NOK 1.5bn*
  • Utilised natural perils fund and guarantee scheme: NOK 3.1bn

Figures as at 30.9.2018. Legal perspective is the regulatory approved version of the partial internal model. The FSA's view on the Guarantee provision as a liability for solvency purposes has not been reflected in the debt capacity figures, as Gjensidige still assumes that the Guarantee provision will count as solvency capital. *Sub debt Gjensidige Forsikring ASA NOK 1.2bn, Gjensidige Pensjonsforsikring NOK 0.3bn

Solvency II regulatory uncertainty - limited effects on dividend capacity expected

Element Solvency surplus
effect (NOK bn)
Comment
Guarantee scheme
provision
~ (0.1)

0.5
Increase in provision suggested, no news regarding treatment in Solvency II
Tax
effect on Solvency
II balance sheet
~ (1.3) -
(0.7)
New
tax rules suggested, decision expected in 2018. Solvency margin effect most likely
in the lower end at approximately 0.7 BNOK related to the security provision. The unlikely
worst case in addition reflects deferred tax on the natural peril capital.
Risk-reducing effect of
deferred tax
~
0
A decision that clarifies the rules regarding the risk-reducing effect suggested by EIOPA,
is expected in 2018.
Based on current balance sheet no effect is expected, but there
could be a negative impact if the solvency margin adjusted for expected run-off gains
were to drop.
Interest rate risk ~ (0.6) –
(0.3)
New stress
parameters suggested by Eiopa
with transitional rules over a three year
period, decision expected in 2018

Annualised return on equity 15.0 per cent

Equity (NOK m) Return on equity (%)

Market leader in Norway

Market share – Total market

Market share – Commercial Market share – Private

Growth opportunities outside Norway

Market shares Denmark Market shares Sweden

Gjensidige Tryg Topdanmark Alm. Brand Codan If

Other

Market shares Baltics

  • Gjensidige inc PZU
  • PZU
  • Vienna

Sources Insurance Sweden, 2nd quarter 2018 (Gjensidige including Vardia), The Danish Insurance Association 3rd quarter 2017 (Gjensidige including Mølholm). Baltics Insurance Supervisory Authorities of Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia Statistics, competitor reports, and manual calculations, 1st quarter 2018

* Shareholder list based on analysis performed by Orient Capital Ltd of the register of shareholders in the Norwegian Central Securities Depository (VPS) as per 01 October 2018. This analysis provides a survey of the shareholders who are behind the nominee accounts. There is no guarantee that the list is complete. ** Distribution of shares excluding share held by the Gjensidige Foundation (Gjensidigestiftelsen).

24%

2%

3% 5%

26%

41%

UK Asia Europe excl. UK and Norway

Norway North America

RoW/ Unidentified

Ownership

No Shareholder Stake (%)
1 Gjensidigestiftelsen 62.2
2 Folketrygdfondet 4.2
3 Caisse de Depot
et Placement du
Quebec
3.7
4 Deutsche Bank 3.6
5 Danske Bank 2.0
6 Black Rock 2.0
7 The Vanguard
Group
0.9
8 DNB 0.9
9 State Street Corporation 0.8
10 Storebrand Investments 0.7
Total 10 largest 81.0

10 largest shareholders* Geographical distribution of shares**

Gjensidige Foundation ownership policy:

with Gjensidige's overall strategy

• Can accept reduced ownership ratio in case of

acquisitions and capital issues when in accordance

• Long term target holding: >60%

41

Disclaimer

This presentation and the information contained herein have been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (the "Company"). Such information is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted, further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are therefore subject to change without notice. The Company assumes no obligations to update or correct any of the information set out herein.

These materials may contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. The Company assumes no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.

This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and is not prepared or made in connection with, an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been independently verified. While the Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, it does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its owners, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company, its affiliates or any of their respective advisors or representatives or any other person shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. The Company's securities have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "US Securities Act"), and are offered and sold only outside the United States in accordance with an exemption from registration provided by Regulation S of the US Securities Act.

This presentation should not form the basis of any investment decision. Investors and prospective investors in securities of any issuer mentioned herein are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of such company and the nature of the securities. Any decision to purchase securities in the context of a proposed offering of securities, if any, should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offering documents published in relation to such an offering. For further information about the Company, reference is made public disclosures made by the Company, such as filings made with the Oslo Stock Exchange, periodic reports and other materials available on the Company's web pages.

In addition to the financial statements according to IFRS, Gjensidige uses different alternative performance measures (APM) to present the business in a more relevant way for its different stakeholders. The alternative performance measures have been used consistent over time, and relevant definitions have been disclosed in the quarterly reports. Comparable figures are provided for all alternative performance measures in the quarterly reports.

Notes

Notes

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