Investor Presentation • Feb 11, 2019
Investor Presentation
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11 FEBRUARY 2019
By attending or reading this presentation, you acknowledge and agree to be bound by the following limitations and restrictions. This presentation has been prepared by Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. ("Galp" or the "Company") and may be amended and supplemented, but may not be relied upon for the purposes of entering into any transaction. This presentation is strictly confidential, is being distributed to a limited range of persons solely for their own information and may not (i) be distributed to the media or disclosed to any other person in any jurisdiction, nor (ii) be reproduced in any form, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of the Company.
Although the Company has taken reasonable care in preparing the information contained herein, no representation, warranty or undertaking. express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein or any other material discussed at the presentation. Neither the Company nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, shareholders, representatives, agents, employees or advisors shall have any liability whatsoever (including in negligence or otherwise) for any loss or liability howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or any other material discussed at the presentation or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation.
This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or otherwise acquire securities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation nor any part thereof, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever in any jurisdiction.
This presentation is made to, and directed only at, persons who are outside the United Kingdom, or who are within the United Kingdom and either (i) having professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2005 (the "Order"), or (i) high net worth entity, falling within Article 49(2) of the Order, or (iii) a person to whom the materials may be otherwise lawfully communicated, (all such persons together being referred to as "Relevant Persons"). This presentation must not be acted or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons. This presentation is made to, and directed only at, persons who are not a "Retail Investor", being a person who is one (or more) of: (i) a retail client as defined in point (11) of Article 4(1) of Directive 2014/65/EU ("MiFID II"); or (ii) a customer within the meaning of Directive 2002/92/EC, where the customer would not qualify as a professional client as defined in point (10) of Article $4(1)$ of MiFID II.
Neither this presentation nor any copy of it, nor the information contained herein, in whole or in part, may be taken or transmitted into, or distributed, directly or indirectly in or to the United States. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of U.S. securities laws. This presentation does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the United States. No securities of the Company have been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the securities laws of any state of the United States, and unless so registered may not be offered or sold except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws.
Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements other than in respect of historical facts. The words "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "intends", "estimate", "will", "may", "continue", "should" and similar expressions usually identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends; energy demand and supply; developments of Galp's markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of Galp's competitors. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management's examination of historical operating trends, data contained in the Company's records and other data available from third parties. Although Galp believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. No assurance, however, can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Important factors that may lead to significant differences between the actual results and the statements of expectations about future events or results include the Company's business strategy. industry developments, financial market conditions, uncertainty of the results of future projects and operations, plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, among others. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results of Galp or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements.
Actual future results, including financial and operating performance; demand growth and energy mix; Galp's production growth and mix; the amount and mix of capital expenditures; future distributions; resource additions and recoveries; project plans, timing, costs, and capacities; efficiency gains; cost savings; integration benefits; product sales and mix; production rates; and the impact of technology could differ materially due to a number of factors. These include changes in oil or gas prices or other market conditions affecting the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries; reservoir performance; timely completion of development projects; war and other political or security disturbances; changes in law or government regulation, including environmental regulations and political sanctions; the outcome of commercial negotiations; the actions of competitors and customers; unexpected technological developments; general economic conditions, including the occurrence and duration of economic recessions; unforeseen technical difficulties; and other factors.
The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation reflect the information available as at the date of this presentation and Galp's view on the matters referred herein, and are subject to change without notice. Galp and its respective representatives, agents, employees or advisors do not intend to, and expressly disclaim any duty, undertaking or obligation to, make or disseminate any supplement, amendment, update or revision to any of the information, opinions or forward-looking statements contained in this presentation to reflect any change in events, conditions or circumstances.
Successfully developing and accessing top Pre-Salt projects (Brazil)
Start of production from Kaombo (Angola)
PoD submission for Rovuma LNG mega trains (Mozambique)
Increasing refining efficiency
Solid performance from oil and gas marketing activities
Enhancing commercial competitiveness in core regions
$2.4bn$ boe
$2P+2C$
$+15%$
YoY
Upwards revision on the Brazil and Mozambique developments
Securing $a 20%$ stake in Carcará Accessing new high potential prospective
pre-salt blocks (Uirapuru and C-M-791)
Main upstream activities expected during 2019/20
galp (
WI production from existing portfolio (kboepd)
Adjusting Lula and Iara
timeline, reflecting P67 and
P68 units' later start-up
Increasing contribution from existing portfolio (Brazil and Mozambique)
Note: As per usual quidance, production levels consider the expected stake adjustments from unitisation processes in Brazil. 1Weighted E&P portfolio NPV10 breakeven 2019 real terms based on 2025 producing assets.
Refining
Marketing
"+\$1/boe" initiatives to deliver full contribution by 2020
Developing the Refinery 4.0 digitalisation programme
川
IMO: Galp system to produce
compliant low sulphur fuel oil, with expected positive margin impact by 2020
of operations and strengthening regional presence
Launching new services while improving fuel and non-fuel offering
CARBONES JIJ
qaip
Gas & Power
Low Carbon & New business solutions
Building new NG/LNG sourcing basket
Strengthening gas and electricity commercial position in Portugal and Spain
Preparing integration with renewable power generation through solar power projects in Iberia
Developing alternative mobility services, including an electric offer
10 | FY2018 Results & Outlook
THILL
Maintaining a resilient and competitive portfolio
Working on the next growth cycle (2020+)
Commitment to shareholder value creation
REFERE
Ø)
despite working capital build
galp
13 | FY2018 Results & Outlook
$CFFO$ ( $\epsilon$ m)
Upstream to benefit from production growth and reflecting lower oil taxes from lara
Downstream performance supported by
improved operations and efficiency initiatives
IMO regulation expected to positively impact upstream and downstream performance
Group Ebitda expected at €2.1-2.2 bn in 2019 and above €3 bn from 2020 onwards
Note: Upstream net capex for 2019-20 considers equalisations from past costs/profits adjustments related with unitisation processes in
Brazil. The estimated equalisation net position as of 31.Dec.2018 amounted to a c.€100
Free cash flow $(\epsilon m)$
Net debt to Ebitda expected below 1.0x from 2020 (under IFRS 16)
Operational cash generation and asset rotation to support portfolio optionality
| Galp assumptions | 2018 (actual) | 2019E | 2020E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent price (\$/bbl) | 71 | 60 | 65 |
| Galp refining margin (\$/boe) | 5.0 | $5.0 - 6.0$ | $6.0 - 7.0$ |
| EUR:USD | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Ebitda | CFFO | FCF 1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivities $(\epsilon m)$ | Change | 2019E | 2020E | 2019E | 2020E | 2019E | 2020E |
| Brent price | \$5/bbl | 145 | 180 | 95 | 85 | 70 | 65 |
| Refining margin | \$1/boe | 90 | 100 | 90 | 70 | 90 | 70 |
| EUR:USD | 0.05 | (75) | (100) | (60) | (7O) | (25) | (35) |
Balance sheet
All leases on balance sheet
Leased FPSOs and subsea equipment account for c.70% of operational leases Profit & Loss | Cash Flow
Leases subject to depreciation and interest
No changes on receivables / payments $\longrightarrow$ No impact on FCF
| Reserves (mmboe) | 2017 | 2018 | Chg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1P | 383 | 389 | 2% |
| 2P | 748 | 755 | $1\%$ |
| 3P | 965 | 985 | 2% |
| Contingent resources (mmboe) | 2017 | 2018 | Chg. |
| 1C | 296 | 425 | 43% |
| 2C | 1,352 | 1,659 | 23% |
| 3C | 3,297 | 3,671 | 11% |
| Prospective resources (mmboe) | 2017 | 2018 | Chg. |
| Unrisked | 3,835 | 4,216 | 10% |
| Risked | 566 | 623 | 10% |
l.
Source: All figures are based on DeGolyer and MacNaughton report as of 31.12.2018.
Reserves figures on a net entitlement basis. Contingent resources and prospective resources on a working interest basis.
supported on strong operational performance
| 2017 | 2018 | YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ebitda RCA | 1,786 | 2,218 | 24% |
| E&P | 850 | 1,440 | 69% |
| R&M | 774 | 610 | (21%) |
| G&P | 132 | 137 | 4% |
| Ebit RCA | 1,032 | 1,518 | 47% |
| Associates | 150 | 137 | (8%) |
| Financial results | (34) | (70) | n.m. |
| Taxes | (483) | (726) | 50% |
| Non-controlling interests | (88) | (151) | 72% |
| Net Income RCA | 577 | 707 | 23% |
| Net Income IFRS | 597 | 741 | 24% |
| Dec.17 | Dec.18 | YoY | IFRS 16 01.Jan.19 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net fixed assets | 7,231 | 7,340 | 109 | 8,543 |
| o.w. operating leases | 1,203 | |||
| Working capital | 584 | 814 | 230 | 814 |
| Loan to Sinopec | 459 | 176 | (283) | 176 |
| Other assets (liabilities) | (609) | (546) | 63 | (546) |
| Capital employed | 7,665 | 7,784 | 118 | 8,987 |
| Net debt | 1,886 | 1,737 | (149) | 2,940 |
| o.w. operating leases | 1,203 | |||
| Equity | 5,779 | 6,047 | 268 | 6,047 |
| Net Debt + Equity | 7,665 | 7,784 | 118 | 8,987 |
| 4Q17 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working interest production | kboepd | 101.2 | 103.8 | 113.1 |
| Oil production | kbpd | 88.6 | 93.1 | 99.8 |
| Net entiltlement production | kboepd | 99.1 | 102.3 | 111.7 |
| Angola | kbpd | 5.2 | 7.4 | 8.9 |
| Brazil | kbpd | 93.9 | 94.9 | 102.9 |
| Oil and gas average sale price | USD/boe | 53.6 | 65.3 | 61.O |
| Production costs | USD/boe | 8.O | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| DD&A | USD/boe | 10.7 | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| Ebitda RCA | €m | 296 | 396 | 339 |
| Ebit RCA | €m | 213 | 311 | 260 |
| Net Income from E&P Associates | €m | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| Capex | €m | 281 | 188 | 141 |
Production up QoQ, benefiting from the start-up of FPSO#8 and the ramp-up of Kaombo North FPSO
Ebitda impacted by lower realisations and underliftings adjustments during a period of declining oil price
DD&A benefiting from the weaker BRL:EUR and reversion of abandonment provisions in Angola
| 4Q17 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galp refining margin | USD/boe | 4.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 |
| Refining cost | USD/boe | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| Hedging impact on Ebitda | USD/boe | O.1 | O.O | O.3 |
| Raw materials processed | mmboe | 28.4 | 27.7 | 19.2 |
| Total oil product sales | mton | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
| Sales to direct clients | mton | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Ebitda RCA | €m | 144 | 195 | 118 |
| Ebit RCA | €m | 44 | 115 | 24 |
| Net Income from R&M Associates | €m | $\overline{2}$ | 1 | (8) |
| Capex | €m | 75 | 44 | 149 |
Raw materials processed lower YoY and QoQ, due to planned partial maintenance in Sines and Matosinhos refineries
Galp refining margin impacted by weaker international refining environment and maintenance activities
Ebitda down YoY and QoQ on the back of lower contribution from refining, despite robust marketing performance
Main G&P data
| 4Q17 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG/LNG total sales volumes | mm 3 | 1,899 | 2,024 | 1,725 |
| Sales to direct clients | mm 3 | 1,109 | 1,201 | 1,181 |
| Trading | mm 3 | 790 | 823 | 544 |
| Ebitda RCA | €m | 27 | 44 | 25 |
| Ebit RCA | €m | 22 | 39 | 20 |
| Net Income from R&M Associates | €m | 22 | 24 | 20 |
| Capex | €m | 1 | ( ) | $\overline{2}$ |
LNG trading volumes down,
reflecting the end of long term
structured contracts in 3Q18
Ebitda impacted by a lower contribution from the power business YoY
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