Investor Presentation • Oct 22, 2019
Investor Presentation
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October 22, 2019
By attending or reading this presentation, you acknowledge and agree to be bound by the following limitations and restrictions. This presentation has been prepared by Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. ("Galp" or the "Company") and may be amended and supplemented, but may not be relied upon for the purposes of entering into any transaction. This presentation is strictly confidential, is being distributed to a limited range of persons solely for their own information and may not (i) be distributed to the media or disclosed to any other person in any jurisdiction, nor (ii) be reproduced in any form, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of the Company.
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Neither this presentation nor any copy of it, nor the information contained herein, in whole or in part, may be taken or transmitted into, or distributed, directly or indirectly in or to the United States. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of U.S. securities laws. This presentation does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the United States. No securities of the Company have been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the securities laws of any state of the United States, and unless so registered may not be offered or sold except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws.
Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements other than in respect of historical facts. The words "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "intends", "estimate", "will", "may", "continue", "should" and similar expressions usually identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends; energy demand and supply; developments of Galp's markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of Galp's competitors. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management's examination of historical operating trends, data contained in the Company's records and other data available from third parties. Although Galp believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. No assurance, however, can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Important factors that may lead to significant differences between the actual results and the statements of expectations about future events or results include the Company's business strategy, industry developments, financial market conditions, uncertainty of the results of future projects and operations, plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, among others. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results of Galp or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements.
Actual future results, including financial and operating performance; demand growth and energy mix; Galp's production growth and mix; the amount and mix of capital expenditures; future distributions; resource additions and recoveries; project plans, timing, costs, and capacities; efficiency gains; cost savings; integration benefits; product sales and mix; production rates; and the impact of technology could differ materially due to a number of factors. These include changes in oil or gas prices or other market conditions affecting the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries; reservoir performance; timely completion of development projects; war and other political or security disturbances; changes in law or government regulation, including environmental regulations and political sanctions; the outcome of commercial negotiations; the actions of competitors and customers; unexpected technological developments; general economic conditions, including the occurrence and duration of economic recessions; unforeseen technical difficulties; and other factors.
The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation reflect the information available as at the date of this presentation and Galp's view on the matters referred herein, and are subject to change without notice. Galp and its respective representatives, agents, employees or advisors do not intend to, and expressly disclaim any duty, undertaking or obligation to, make or disseminate any supplement, amendment, update or revision to any of the information, opinions or forward-looking statements contained in this presentation to reflect any change in events, conditions or circumstances.
impacted by weak refining performance
supported on ramp-up progression
3Q Overview
WI Production of 126 kboepd, benefiting from the ramp-up in Brazil and Angola, with Lula unit #8 reaching plateau
Unitisation agreements for the Atapu and Sépia accumulations approved by ANP
Awarded EPC contracts for the Rovuma LNG project, subject to FID expected in 2020. Targeting first gas in 2025.
4Q19 production to continue benefiting from units' ramp-up, with
Outlook
no relevant planned maintenance expected
First unit to develop Iara fields at final location (Berbigão/Sururu)
Uirapuru well expected to be spud by YE2019
despite lower contribution from downstream
| 3Q18 w/o IFRS 16 |
2Q19 IFRS 16 |
3Q19 IFRS 16 |
3Q19 w/o IFRS 16 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCA Ebitda |
642 | 615 | 619 | 571 |
| E&P | 396 | 408 | 469 | 434 |
| R&M | 195 | 142 | 104 | 92 |
| G&P | 44 | 57 | 37 | 37 |
| Ebit RCA |
470 | 386 | 370 | 356 |
| Associates | 39 | 47 | 31 | 31 |
| Financial results |
(34) | (10) | (89) | (13) |
| Taxes1 | (221) | (190) | (180) | (200) |
| Non-controlling interests |
(43) | (34) | (31) | (43) |
| RCA Net Income |
212 | 200 | 101 | 131 |
| IFRS Net Income |
235 | 231 | 60 |
Upstream performance supported on higher production from Brazil and Angola, more than offsetting lower oil prices
Downstream impacted by lower refining and G&P, despite supportive commercial contribution
Financial results including negative MTM from derivatives and reflecting BRL depreciation
9 | 3Q19 Results & Strategy Update
1All lease-related payments (IFRS 16) captured within FCF.
9M19 FCF of €694 m, covering full year dividends paid to shareholders
3Q19 CFFO of €435 m, up €92 m YoY, reflecting higher upstream contribution offsetting refining maintenance
3Q19 net capex of €189 m during the period, including investments related to refining maintenance and "+\$1/boe" initiatives
Balanced investments supporting long-term value creation
11 | 3Q19 Results & Strategy Update
1 NPV10 Brent breakeven. 2Equity IRR from already identified projects, non-exhaustive. 3DPS growth target based on 2018 dividend of €0.6325/sh.
Sources and Uses 2020-22 (€bn)
Note: Current portfolio CFFO assumes \$65/bbl Brent in 2020 and \$70/bbl onwards, refining margin averaging \$5.5 – 6.0/boe in 2020-22 and EUR:USD stable at 1.15 during the period. Expected net investment includes both organic and additional projects equity needs.
Attractive Returns Selective growth Unique asset base
Increase portfolio resilience and competitiveness
Investment for growth along the energy value chain
Focus on project returns and financial discipline
Balance net investments with competitive shareholder returns
Capture opportunities from the energy transition while reducing carbon intensity
Positioning Galp for the next growth cycle and for the future of energy
| 3Q18 w/o IFRS 16 |
2Q19 IFRS 16 |
3Q19 IFRS 16 |
3Q19 w/o IFRS 16 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working interest production | kboepd | 103.8 | 111.8 | 125.5 | |
| Oil production | kbpd | 93.1 | 99.5 | 111.0 | |
| Net entitlement production | kboepd | 102.3 | 109.8 | 124.0 | |
| Angola | kbpd | 7.4 | 12.2 | 12.7 | |
| Brazil | kboepd | 94.9 | 97.6 | 111.3 | |
| Oil and gas realisations - Dif. to Brent | USD/boe | (9.8) | (7.8) | (7.3) | |
| Production costs | USD/boe | 9.0 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 6.7 |
| DD&A | USD/boe | 10.5 | 14.5 | 14.2 | 12.0 |
| RCA Ebitda | € m | 396 | 408 | 469 | 434 |
| RCA Ebit | € m | 311 | 278 | 324 | 311 |
| Net Income from E&P Associates | € m | 15 | 17 | 3 | 3 |
| Capex | € m | 188 | 177 | 106 |
Production up QoQ, with Brazil and Angola ramp-up
Continuing reduction of unit technical costs (opex + DD&A) from high quality project ramp-up
RCA Ebitda up QoQ and YoY, with higher production more than offsetting lower oil prices
| 3Q18 w/o IFRS 16 |
2Q19 IFRS 16 |
3Q19 IFRS 16 |
3Q19 w/o IFRS 16 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| refining Galp margin |
USD/boe | 5 8 |
3 0 |
3 9 |
|
| Refining cost |
USD/boe | 1 9 |
2 3 |
3 0 |
|
| Hedging on Ebitda impact |
USD/boe | 0 0 |
0 1 |
(0 4) |
|
| materials processed Raw |
mmboe | 28 0 |
26 1 |
20 6 |
|
| Total oil product sales |
mton | 4 5 |
4 4 |
3 9 |
|
| Sales direct clients to |
mton | 2 3 |
2 3 |
2 3 |
|
| RCA Ebitda |
€ m |
195 | 142 | 104 | 92 |
| Ebit RCA |
€ m |
115 | 48 | 7 | 5 |
| from Net Income R&M Associates |
€ m |
1 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Capex | € m |
44 | 54 | 80 |
Maintenance and operational restrictions impacting throughput and oil products sales
Refining margin of \$3.9/boe resulting from operational restrictions
RCA Ebitda lower QoQ and YoY given the lower contribution from refining, with solid marketing performance
| Main G&P data | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q18 w/o IFRS 16 |
2Q19 IFRS 16 |
3Q19 IFRS 16 |
3Q19 w/o IFRS 16 |
||
| NG/LNG total sales volumes | m3 m |
2,024 | 1,887 | 1,803 | |
| Sales to direct clients | 3 mm |
1,201 | 1,205 | 1,131 | |
| Trading | mm3 | 823 | 682 | 673 | |
| Sales of electricity to direct clients | GWh | 931 | 788 | 762 | |
| Sales of electricity to the grid | GWh | 328 | 328 | 304 | |
| RCA Ebitda | € m | 4 4 |
57 | 3 7 |
3 7 |
| RCA Ebit | € m | 39 | 53 | 32 | 32 |
| Net Income from G&P Associates | € m | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Capex | € m | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Lower NG/LNG sales to electrical and own consumptions
RCA Ebitda down YoY due to the end of LNG structured contracts and fewer sourcing opportunities
| Dec 31 2018 |
30 Jun ., 2019 |
30 Sep ., 2019 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| assets1 fixed Net |
7 340 , |
7 424 , |
7 437 , |
| of use (IFRS 16) Rights |
- | 240 1 , |
202 1 , |
| Working capital |
814 | 782 | 837 |
| Sinopec Loan to |
176 | - | - |
| assets/liabilities1 Other |
(546) | (779) | (879) |
| Capital employed |
7 784 , |
8 666 , |
8 597 , |
| debt Net |
1 737 , |
1 598 , |
1 645 , |
| (IFRS 16) leases Operating |
- | 1 252 , |
1 274 , |
| Equity | 047 6 , |
817 5 , |
678 5 , |
| debt and op. leases Equity , net |
784 7 , |
8 666 , |
8 597 , |
Cash generation during the first nine months leads to net debt reduction of €92 m to €1,645 m
Net debt to Ebitda RCA of 0.8x 2
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