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Galp Energia

Investor Presentation Oct 22, 2019

1908_iss_2019-10-22_7e1c8fa2-f7ca-41fb-b9e0-7edf0c793044.pdf

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3Q19 Results & Strategy Update

October 22, 2019

Cautionary Statement

By attending or reading this presentation, you acknowledge and agree to be bound by the following limitations and restrictions. This presentation has been prepared by Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. ("Galp" or the "Company") and may be amended and supplemented, but may not be relied upon for the purposes of entering into any transaction. This presentation is strictly confidential, is being distributed to a limited range of persons solely for their own information and may not (i) be distributed to the media or disclosed to any other person in any jurisdiction, nor (ii) be reproduced in any form, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of the Company.

Although the Company has taken reasonable care in preparing the information contained herein, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein or any other material discussed at the presentation. Neither the Company nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, shareholders, representatives, agents, employees or advisors shall have any liability whatsoever (including in negligence or otherwise) for any loss or liability howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or any other material discussed at the presentation or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation.

This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or otherwise acquire securities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation nor any part thereof, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever in any jurisdiction.

This presentation is made to, and directed only at, persons who are outside the United Kingdom, or who are within the United Kingdom and either (i) having professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2005 (the "Order"), or (i) high net worth entity, falling within Article 49(2) of the Order, or (iii) a person to whom the materials may be otherwise lawfully communicated, (all such persons together being referred to as "Relevant Persons"). This presentation must not be acted or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons.This presentation is made to, and directed only at, persons who are not a "Retail Investor", being a person who is one (or more) of: (i) a retail client as defined in point (11) of Article 4(1) of Directive 2014/65/EU ("MiFID II"); or (ii) a customer within the meaning of Directive 2002/92/EC, where the customer would not qualify as a professional client as defined in point (10) of Article 4(1) of MiFID II.

Neither this presentation nor any copy of it, nor the information contained herein, in whole or in part, may be taken or transmitted into, or distributed, directly or indirectly in or to the United States. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of U.S. securities laws. This presentation does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the United States. No securities of the Company have been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the securities laws of any state of the United States, and unless so registered may not be offered or sold except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws.

Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements other than in respect of historical facts. The words "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "intends", "estimate", "will", "may", "continue", "should" and similar expressions usually identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends; energy demand and supply; developments of Galp's markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of Galp's competitors. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management's examination of historical operating trends, data contained in the Company's records and other data available from third parties. Although Galp believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. No assurance, however, can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Important factors that may lead to significant differences between the actual results and the statements of expectations about future events or results include the Company's business strategy, industry developments, financial market conditions, uncertainty of the results of future projects and operations, plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, among others. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results of Galp or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements.

Actual future results, including financial and operating performance; demand growth and energy mix; Galp's production growth and mix; the amount and mix of capital expenditures; future distributions; resource additions and recoveries; project plans, timing, costs, and capacities; efficiency gains; cost savings; integration benefits; product sales and mix; production rates; and the impact of technology could differ materially due to a number of factors. These include changes in oil or gas prices or other market conditions affecting the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries; reservoir performance; timely completion of development projects; war and other political or security disturbances; changes in law or government regulation, including environmental regulations and political sanctions; the outcome of commercial negotiations; the actions of competitors and customers; unexpected technological developments; general economic conditions, including the occurrence and duration of economic recessions; unforeseen technical difficulties; and other factors.

The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation reflect the information available as at the date of this presentation and Galp's view on the matters referred herein, and are subject to change without notice. Galp and its respective representatives, agents, employees or advisors do not intend to, and expressly disclaim any duty, undertaking or obligation to, make or disseminate any supplement, amendment, update or revision to any of the information, opinions or forward-looking statements contained in this presentation to reflect any change in events, conditions or circumstances.

3Q19 Key Highlights

Corporate

Upstream

Downstream

  • Robust cash flow generation despite weak contribution from refining
  • 9M19 FCF of €694 m, covering FY dividends paid to shareholders
  • Galp reconfirmed as an industry leader in the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (#1 in Europe)
  • Upstream contribution benefiting from production ramp-up
  • Lula unit #8 reached plateau 10 months after first oil
  • Refining impacted by planned maintenance and operational restrictions
  • Implementation of "+\$1/boe" initiatives underway
  • Solid marketing and G&P contribution

3Q19 Operational performance

Downstream contribution

impacted by weak refining performance

Upstream performance

supported on ramp-up progression

3Q Overview

WI Production of 126 kboepd, benefiting from the ramp-up in Brazil and Angola, with Lula unit #8 reaching plateau

Unitisation agreements for the Atapu and Sépia accumulations approved by ANP

Awarded EPC contracts for the Rovuma LNG project, subject to FID expected in 2020. Targeting first gas in 2025.

4Q19 production to continue benefiting from units' ramp-up, with

Outlook

no relevant planned maintenance expected

First unit to develop Iara fields at final location (Berbigão/Sururu)

Uirapuru well expected to be spud by YE2019

3Q19 Financial performance

Operational results driven by upstream

despite lower contribution from downstream

Profit & Loss (€m)

3Q18
w/o
IFRS
16
2Q19
IFRS
16
3Q19
IFRS
16
3Q19
w/o
IFRS
16
RCA
Ebitda
642 615 619 571
E&P 396 408 469 434
R&M 195 142 104 92
G&P 44 57 37 37
Ebit
RCA
470 386 370 356
Associates 39 47 31 31
Financial
results
(34) (10) (89) (13)
Taxes1 (221) (190) (180) (200)
Non-controlling
interests
(43) (34) (31) (43)
RCA
Net
Income
212 200 101 131
IFRS
Net
Income
235 231 60

Upstream performance supported on higher production from Brazil and Angola, more than offsetting lower oil prices

Downstream impacted by lower refining and G&P, despite supportive commercial contribution

Financial results including negative MTM from derivatives and reflecting BRL depreciation

Solid cash generation 9M19 FCF of c.€0.7 bn

FCF 9M19 (€m)

9 | 3Q19 Results & Strategy Update

1All lease-related payments (IFRS 16) captured within FCF.

9M19 FCF of €694 m, covering full year dividends paid to shareholders

3Q19 CFFO of €435 m, up €92 m YoY, reflecting higher upstream contribution offsetting refining maintenance

3Q19 net capex of €189 m during the period, including investments related to refining maintenance and "+\$1/boe" initiatives

Strategy update

Capital allocation guidelines

Balanced investments supporting long-term value creation

11 | 3Q19 Results & Strategy Update

1 NPV10 Brent breakeven. 2Equity IRR from already identified projects, non-exhaustive. 3DPS growth target based on 2018 dividend of €0.6325/sh.

resilience and long-term growth Strengthening portfolio for

Sources and Uses 2020-22 (€bn)

Note: Current portfolio CFFO assumes \$65/bbl Brent in 2020 and \$70/bbl onwards, refining margin averaging \$5.5 – 6.0/boe in 2020-22 and EUR:USD stable at 1.15 during the period. Expected net investment includes both organic and additional projects equity needs.

Attractive Returns Selective growth Unique asset base

Increase portfolio resilience and competitiveness

Investment for growth along the energy value chain

Focus on project returns and financial discipline

Balance net investments with competitive shareholder returns

Capture opportunities from the energy transition while reducing carbon intensity

Positioning Galp for the next growth cycle and for the future of energy

Appendix

3Q19 E&P Higher production offsetting lower oil price environment

Main E&P data

3Q18
w/o IFRS 16
2Q19
IFRS 16
3Q19
IFRS 16
3Q19
w/o IFRS 16
Working interest production kboepd 103.8 111.8 125.5
Oil production kbpd 93.1 99.5 111.0
Net entitlement production kboepd 102.3 109.8 124.0
Angola kbpd 7.4 12.2 12.7
Brazil kboepd 94.9 97.6 111.3
Oil and gas realisations - Dif. to Brent USD/boe (9.8) (7.8) (7.3)
Production costs USD/boe 9.0 4.6 3.3 6.7
DD&A USD/boe 10.5 14.5 14.2 12.0
RCA Ebitda € m 396 408 469 434
RCA Ebit € m 311 278 324 311
Net Income from E&P Associates € m 15 17 3 3
Capex € m 188 177 106

Production up QoQ, with Brazil and Angola ramp-up

Continuing reduction of unit technical costs (opex + DD&A) from high quality project ramp-up

RCA Ebitda up QoQ and YoY, with higher production more than offsetting lower oil prices

3Q19 R&M Performance impacted by refining operations

Main R&M data

3Q18
w/o
IFRS
16
2Q19
IFRS
16
3Q19
IFRS
16
3Q19
w/o
IFRS
16
refining
Galp
margin
USD/boe 5
8
3
0
3
9
Refining
cost
USD/boe 1
9
2
3
3
0
Hedging
on Ebitda
impact
USD/boe 0
0
0
1
(0
4)
materials
processed
Raw
mmboe 28
0
26
1
20
6
Total
oil
product
sales
mton 4
5
4
4
3
9
Sales
direct
clients
to
mton 2
3
2
3
2
3
RCA
Ebitda

m
195 142 104 92
Ebit
RCA

m
115 48 7 5
from
Net
Income
R&M
Associates

m
1 6 3 3
Capex
m
44 54 80

Maintenance and operational restrictions impacting throughput and oil products sales

Refining margin of \$3.9/boe resulting from operational restrictions

RCA Ebitda lower QoQ and YoY given the lower contribution from refining, with solid marketing performance

3Q19 G&P Normalised contribution from G&P activities

Main G&P data

Main G&P data
3Q18
w/o IFRS 16
2Q19
IFRS 16
3Q19
IFRS 16
3Q19
w/o IFRS 16
NG/LNG total sales volumes m3
m
2,024 1,887 1,803
Sales to direct clients 3
mm
1,201 1,205 1,131
Trading mm3 823 682 673
Sales of electricity to direct clients GWh 931 788 762
Sales of electricity to the grid GWh 328 328 304
RCA Ebitda € m 4
4
57 3
7
3
7
RCA Ebit € m 39 53 32 32
Net Income from G&P Associates € m 24 24 24 24
Capex € m 0 2 1

Lower NG/LNG sales to electrical and own consumptions

RCA Ebitda down YoY due to the end of LNG structured contracts and fewer sourcing opportunities

Keeping a solid financial position

Balance sheet (€m)

Dec
31
2018
30
Jun
.,
2019
30
Sep
.,
2019
assets1
fixed
Net
7
340
,
7
424
,
7
437
,
of
use (IFRS
16)
Rights
- 240
1
,
202
1
,
Working
capital
814 782 837
Sinopec
Loan
to
176 - -
assets/liabilities1
Other
(546) (779) (879)
Capital
employed
7
784
,
8
666
,
8
597
,
debt
Net
1
737
,
1
598
,
1
645
,
(IFRS
16)
leases
Operating
- 1
252
,
1
274
,
Equity 047
6
,
817
5
,
678
5
,
debt
and
op. leases
Equity
, net
784
7
,
8
666
,
8
597
,

Cash generation during the first nine months leads to net debt reduction of €92 m to €1,645 m

Net debt to Ebitda RCA of 0.8x 2

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