Investor Presentation • Feb 20, 2018
Investor Presentation
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By attending or reading this presentation, you acknowledge and agree to be bound by the following limitations and restrictions. This presentation has been prepared by Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. ("Galp" or the "Company") and may be amended and supplemented, but may not be relied upon for the purposes of entering into any transaction. This presentation is strictly confidential, is being distributed to a limited range of persons solely for their own information and may not (i) be distributed to the media or disclosed to any other person in any jurisdiction, nor (ii) be reproduced in any form, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of the Company.
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Neither this presentation nor any copy of it, nor the information contained herein, in whole or in part, may be taken or transmitted into, or distributed, directly or indirectly in or to the United States. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of U.S. securities laws. This presentation does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the United States. No securities of the Company have been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the securities laws of any state of the United States, and unless so registered may not be offered or sold except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws.
Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements other than in respect of historical facts. The words "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "intends", "estimate", "will", "may", "continue", "should" and similar expressions usually identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends; energy demand and supply; developments of Galp's markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of Galp's competitors. The forwardlooking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management's examination of historical operating trends, data contained in the Company's records and other data available from third parties. Although Galp believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. No assurance, however, can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Important factors that may lead to significant differences between the actual results and the statements of expectations about future events or results include the Company's business strategy, industry developments, financial market conditions, uncertainty of the results of future projects and operations, plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, among others. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results of Galp or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements.
Actual future results, including financial and operating performance; demand growth and energy mix; Galp's production growth and mix; the amount and mix of capital expenditures; future distributions; resource additions and recoveries; project plans, timing, costs, and capacities; efficiency gains; cost savings; integration benefits; product sales and mix; production rates; and the impact of technology could differ materially due to a number of factors. These include changes in oil or gas prices or other market conditions affecting the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries; reservoir performance; timely completion of development projects; war and other political or security disturbances; changes in law or government regulation, including environmental regulations and political sanctions; the outcome of commercial negotiations; the actions of competitors and customers; unexpected technological developments; general economic conditions, including the occurrence and duration of economic recessions; unforeseen technical difficulties; and other factors.
The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation reflect the information available as at the date of this presentation and Galp's view on the matters referred herein, and are subject to change without notice. Galp and its respective representatives, agents, employees or advisors do not intend to, and expressly disclaim any duty, undertaking or obligation to, make or disseminate any supplement, amendment, update or revision to any of the information, opinions or forward-looking statements contained in this presentation to reflect any change in events, conditions or circumstances.
Solid financial position entering into a new cash cycle
Developing a resilient and competitive portfolio
Working on the next growth cycle (2020+)
Commitment to shareholder value creation
Project execution Financial Performance Business development Reinforcing pre-salt exposure Launching digital initiatives Preparing lower carbon investments Positive Group post-dividend FCF Maintaining solid financial position Delivering efficiency improvements WI production c.93 kboepd Downstream oil and gas +4% volumes Acquisition of 20% Carcará North 3% BM-S-8 Ebitda c.1.9 €bn Capex c.1.0 €bn Record production (>100 kboepd) Coral South FLNG FID Strong downstream performance
Total primary energy demand mix in 2040 by scenario (bn toe)
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2017.
Note: Galp scenarios consider different intensities of technological disruption and market regulation.
Energy demand expected to grow under any scenario
Galp developed four scenarios internally
Technology Innovation Digitalisation
Source: Rystad, January 2018 (benchmark includes IOC, Majors and Integrated companies). Note: Breakeven NPV10, 2018 real terms. Weighted portfolio breakeven based on 2025 average production.
Maintain portfolio resilience and competitiveness
Focus on BM-S-11 FPSO execution and development enhancement
De-risking existing high quality portfolio
Sizeable resources with low cost base
Fostering new opportunities
Note: Assumes 90% plant utilisation capacity and LNG demand CAGR 2016-2030 of 5%, and annual average decline for operating supply of c.2%.
Time to market and scalability advantage
Coral South FLNG under development
Execute and extract focus / Accelerate de-risking phase
Balance exposure to gas
Deliver efficiency and enhanced conversion initiatives
Prepare for IMO global cap
Explore petrochemicals integration
Reinforce market share in Iberia
Improve convenience and customer experience
Develop African business clusters
Adapt supply basket to market trends
Expand trading activities
New market opportunities / outlets
Increase market share in Iberia
New business segments
Energy efficiency solutions provider
Develop a portfolio of renewable energy
Enhance client centricity
Promote digital mindset
Focus on innovative technologies Develop mobility solutions Foster innovation agenda
Promote safety above benchmark, and 50% reduction target in 20181
Leading environmental performance and 20% cut in refining CO2 intensity2
Applying internal carbon price (\$40/tCO2e) sensitivity
Commitment to Zero Routine Flaring
1Tier 1 events, based on 2015.
Ability to fund further profitable growth
Prioritizing reinvestment in value accretive opportunities
Oil & Gas to remain core and starting to develop low carbon
Dividend now considered at €0.55/sh
Potential to further increase dividends, while maintaining financial discipline
| Guidance @CMD17 |
Actual | E&P | €913 m +85% YoY |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebitda | €1.5 - €1.6 bn |
€1.9 bn | Higher production and oil price |
||
| R&M | €785 m +36% YoY |
||||
| Capex | €1.0 - €1.2 bn |
€1.0 bn | Supportive refining margin and marketing |
||
| Net debt/ Ebitda |
<2.0x | 1.0x | G&P | €141 m (55%) YoY |
|
| GGND deconsolidation and fewer trading opportunities |
1Includes c.€150 m payment related to Carcará North signing bonus.
2017 Cash flow (€m)
Group Ebitda expected at c.€1.8 – €1.9 bn in 2018
Upstream CFFO with CAGR 2017-20 of c.30%
Downstream CFFO of €0.8 - €0.9 bn during the period
Group CFFO CAGR 2017-20 above 10%
Cash sources and uses (€m)
Post-dividend FCF2(€m)
28 | Capital Markets Day | February 20, 2018
Source: DeGolyer and McNaughton report as of 31.12.2017. 1 Three-year average based on 1P reserves. 2 Based on 2P reserves.
29 | Capital Markets Day | February 20, 2018
| Lula North (2018) | Berbigão/Sururu (2018/19) |
|---|---|
| Lula Ext. South (2018) | Kaombo South (2019) |
| Kaombo North (2018) |
Atapu 1 (2019) |
| Sépia East (2021) | Carcará |
| Coral South (2022) | st Mamba 1 phase |
| Lula West | Mamba subs. |
| Atapu 2 |
Júpiter |
Risked exploration
Optimise developments | New ventures
Note: Galp's view.
7 units producing, with 6 at plateau
2 additional FPSOs to start-up in 2018
Start-up of first replicant unit
c.80% of 1st phase capex realised
Expected avg. plateau period of 4 years
Benefiting from learning curve
Current recovery factor of 31%
Leveraging strong partnerships
Note: Galp's view.
Infill drilling activities
Processing specifications
Reservoir management
WAG
Subsea boosting and separation
4D seismic
FPSOs under construction with production to start at Berbigão
Ongoing drilling campaign and optimising PoD for three different accumulations
EWT and further appraisal in Sururu to support future development activities
Unitisation pre-agreements established for two areas, and now focusing on Atapu
33 | Capital Markets Day | February 20, 2018 Source: Wood Mackenzie. Bubble size reflects expected recoverable resources of selected deepwater projects with FID in the last 5 years and probable developments.
Accessing Carcará North with a 20% interest and increasing BM-S-8 stake to 17%
At least 2 bn bbl of high quality oil expected to be recovered with start-up by 2023/24
Carcará reservoir quality to exceed Santos basin average performance with breakeven <\$40/bbl
DST and one appraisal well in Carcará, and one exploration well in Guanxuma during 2018
FLNG with 3.4 mtpa capacity, starting the developments of Rovuma's discoveries
Enhancing the development concept towards a robust and competitive solution
Focus on execution to ensure first gas by 2022 Strong partnership levering a large scalable project
Drilling campaign in Kaombo proceeding
Optimising development in block 14
Area of interest
Galp's presence
Leveraging presence in Brazilian pre-salt top tier acreage
New ventures to include both selected DRO and exploration areas
Developing competitive advantages and synergies with current portfolio
Maintain top production operational efficiency of FPSOs
st phase development concept
Focus on DRO and exploration areas in the Atlantic margin
| Galp assumptions | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent price (\$/bbl) | 60 | 60 | 65 |
| Benchmark refining margin1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 4.3 |
| EUR:USD | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Ebitda | FCF | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivities | Change | 2018E | 2020E | 2018E | 2020E |
| Brent price | \$5.0/bbl | €140 m | €200 m | €100 m | €80 m |
| Benchmark refining margin1 | \$1.0/bbl | €90 m | €100 m | €90 m | €70 m |
| EUR:USD | 0.05 | (€70 m) | (€110 m) | (€30 m) | (€35 m) |
| 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|
| Gross debt | €2.9 bn | €3.1 bn |
| Cash and equivalents | €1.0 bn | €1.2 bn |
| Net Debt | €1.9 bn | €1.9 bn |
| Net Debt to Ebitda | 1.3x | 1.0x |
| Available credit lines | €1.2 bn | €1.3 bn |
| % Debt @ fixed rate | 50% | 60% |
Debt indicators Debt reimbursement (€m)
| Reserves | 2016 | 2017 | % Chg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1P | 274 | 383 | 40% |
| 2P | 673 | 748 | 11% |
| 3P | 927 | 965 | 4% |
| Contingent resources | 2016 | 2017 | % Chg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1C | 300 | 296 | (1%) |
| 2C | 1,320 | 1,352 | 2% |
| 3C | 2,993 | 3,297 | 10% |
| Prospective resources | 2016 | 2017 | % Chg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unrisked | 2,658 | 3,835 | 44% |
| Risked | 383 | 566 | 48% |
All figures are based on DeGolyer and MacNaughton report as of 31.12.2017. Reserves figures on a net entitlement basis. Contingent resources and prospective resources on a working interest basis.
Over 22 years of experience in Oil & Gas and a Galp Board member since 2007. Former Board executive for more than 12 years in the energy and beverage industries.
| Chief Financial Officer |
COO Exploration & Production |
COO Supply, Refining & Planning |
COO Iberian Oil Marketing & International Oil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filipe Silva | Thore E. Kristiansen |
Carlos Silva | Tiago Câmara Pestana |
| Over 25 years of experience in the banking sector. Galp |
Over 25 years of experience in Oil & Gas |
Over 20 years of experience in the |
Over 25 years of experience in the retail |
Over 20 years of experience in the gas sector and Galp Board member since 2015. Held senior executive roles in supply and trading of natural gas.
Over 17 years of experience in public senior level functions in capital markets, finance and insurance. Galp Board member since 2012.
COO Gas & Power
Chief Corporate Officer / New Energies
| and amortisation | ROACE | Return on Average Capital Employed |
|---|---|---|
| \$ (or USD) | United States Dollar |
Chg. | Change | IMO | International Maritime Organization |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | Percentage | CMD17 | Capital Markets Day 2017 | Kboepd | Thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day |
| & | And | CO2 | Carbon dioxide | LNG | Liquefied Natural Gas |
| @ | At | COO | Chief Operating Officer | m | Million |
| € (or EUR) |
Euro | CPS | Current Policies Scenario | mmboe | Million barrels of oil equivalent |
| ≈ | Approximately | D&C | Drilling and Completion | mtpa | Million tonnes per annum |
| x | Times | DD&A | Depreciation, Depletion and Amortisation |
NG | Natural Gas |
| < | Below | DRO | Discovered Resources Opportunities | NPS | New Policies Scenario |
| > | Above | DST | Drill Stem Test | NPV | Net Present Value |
| + | Plus | E | Expected | p.a. | Per annum |
| 1C; 2C; 3C | Contingent resources | E&P | Exploration and Production | PoD | Plan of Development |
| 1P | Proved reserves | Ebit | Earnings before interest and taxes | R&M | Refining and Marketing |
| 2P | Proved and probable reserves | Ebitda | Earnings before interest and taxes, depreciation and amortisation |
ROACE | Return on Average Capital Employed |
| 3P | Proved, probable and possible reserves | EOR | Enhanced Oil Recovery | R/P | Reserves to Production Ratio |
| 4D | Four dimensional | EPC | Engineering, Procurement and Construction | RRR | Reserve Replacement Ratio |
| Avg. | Average | EWT | Extended Well Test |
SDS | Sustainable Development Scenario |
| Bbl | Barrel | o.w. | Of which | sh | share |
| bn | Billion | FCF | Free Cash Flow | tCO2e | Tonnes of Carbon dioxide equivalent |
| boe | Barrel of oil equivalent | FID | Final Investment Decision | toe | Tonnes of Oil Equivalent |
| c. | Circa | FLNG | Floating Liquefied Natural Gas | U.K. | United Kingdom |
| CAGR | Compound Annual Growth Rate | FPSO | Floating Production Storage Offloading | U.S. | United States of America |
| Capex | Capital expenditure | G&P | Gas and Power | WAG | Water Alternating Gas |
| CDP | Carbon Disclosure Project | GGND | Galp Gás Natural Distribuição, S.A. |
WI | Working interest |
| CEO | Chief Executive Officer | IEA | International Energy Agency | YE | Year end |
| CFFO | Cash Flow from Operations |
IFRS | International Financial Reporting Standards | YoY | Year on Year |
| \$ (or USD) United States Dollar | |
|---|---|
| $\frac{0}{0}$ | Percentage |
| & | And |
| @ | At |
| € (or EUR) Euro | |
| $\approx$ | Approximately |
| X | Times |
| $\prec$ | Below |
| $\geq$ | Above |
| ÷ | Plus |
| 1C; 2C; 3C Contingent resources | |
| 1P | Proved reserves |
| 2P | Proved and probable reserves |
| 3P | Proved, probable and possible reserves |
| 4D | Four dimensional |
| Avg. | Average |
| Bbl | Barrel |
| bn | Billion |
| boe | Barrel of oil equivalent |
| C. | Circa |
| CAGR | Compound Annual Growth Rate |
| Capex | Capital expenditure |
| CDP | Carbon Disclosure Project |
| CEO | Chief Executive Officer |
| CFFO | Cash Flow from Operations |
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