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Fincantieri — Investor Presentation 2016
Mar 31, 2016
4085_cp_2016-03-31_b0f1fdb8-281d-4f22-849b-db09d2de06e0.pdf
Investor Presentation
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31 March 2016
Safe Harbor Statement
This Presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words "believes," "expects," "predicts," "intends," "projects," "plans," "estimates," "aims," "foresees," "anticipates," "targets," and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources, are solely opinions and forecasts reflecting current views with respect to future events and plans, estimates, projections and expectations which are uncertain and subject to risks. Market data used in this Presentation not attributed to a specific source are estimates of the Company and have not been independently verified. These statements are based on certain assumptions that, although reasonable at this time, may prove to be erroneous. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. If certain risks and uncertainties materialize, or if certain underlying assumptions prove incorrect, Fincantieri may not be able to achieve its financial targets and strategic objectives. A multitude of factors which are in some cases beyond the Company's control can cause actual events to differ significantly from any anticipated development. Forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. No one undertakes any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Market data used in this Presentation not attributed to a specific source are estimates of the Company and have not been independently verified. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this Presentation and are subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties, express or implied, are given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any forward-looking statements, including (but not limited to) any projections, estimates, forecasts or targets contained herein.
Fincantieri does not undertake to provide any additional information or to remedy any omissions in or from this Presentation. Fincantieri does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update industry information or forward-looking statements set forth in this Presentation. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company.
Declaration of the Manager responsible for preparing financial reports
Pursuant to art. 154-BIS, par. 2, of the Unified Financial Act of February 24, 1998, the executive in charge of preparing the corporate accounting documents at Fincantieri, Carlo Gainelli, declares that the accounting information contained herein correspond to document results, books and accounting records.
Contents
Key messages
Strategy overview
Short and medium term financial targets
Key messages
BUSINESS PLAN KEY MESSAGES STRATEGIC GOALS
Long term visibility
All time high backlog at € 18.7 BN, of which soft backlog € 3.0 BN, and substantial commercial opportunities in advanced stage
Clear strategy and defined action plan to seize opportunities and address issues:
- Shipbuilding
- Offshore
- Equipment, Systems and Services
Synergies with Vard
Significant development of commercial and industrial synergies with Vard
Growth
Strengthening and development of Fincantieri global leadership in the Cruise, Naval, Offshore and high value-added Equipment, Systems and Services businesses
Profitability
Structural increase in profitability which will allow strong organic growth and fair shareholders return
Shareholders return
Positive net result foreseen for 2016 and dividend distribution starting with 2017 net income
Shipbuilding - Cruise: growing market
Dynamics of cruise ships market
Historical trends (2013-2015)
- Starting in 2014, significant recovery of demand, with record orders in 2015 (19 units) and consequent increase of workload and shipyards production visibility
- − Demand recovery in "traditional markets"
- − Opening of new markets with great potential (e.g. China and Australia)
- − New players / new brands (e.g. Virgin Cruises, Costa Asia)
Forecast (2016-2020)
- Production capacity already filled through 2020 with ships currently in shipbuilders' backlogs (i.e. with fleet development programs already approved by shipowners)
- Steady growth of additional demand of lower berths also beyond 2020, thanks to growing cruise guests
Source: World Tourism Organization , UNWTO – Tourism Highlights, 2015 Edition, Fincantieri estimates
Dynamics of global tourism and cruise passengers
Shipbuilding - Cruise: strategy and action plan
| Description | Timing/status | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | • Development of the important backlog and soft backlog as of today (over 90% of 2016-2020 revenues covered by contracts and/or MOA), driven by a strong and dedicated management team • Commercial synergies with Vard (e.g. recent Vard order from Ponant: client retention) |
• Ongoing |
| Consolidation of positive pricing trend |
• Demand conditions allow for consolidation of this trend • Positive impact on income statement starting from 2017 |
• 1H 2017 |
| Backlog de-risking | • Leverage of the engineering effort made for prototypes in delivery in 2016: over the business plan horizon delivery of mostly sister ships and quasi-sister ships • Current Cruise backlog only entails 2 full prototypes (MSC and Virgin) to be delivered in 2017-2020 |
• Ongoing |
| Production/engineering synergies with Vard |
• Support of Cruise production plan through: − Operational integration of Tulcea shipyard with the Italian shipyards in order to design and build complex sections of cruise ships − Implementation of a specific procurement strategy to exploit low cost production platform advantages − Support of Tulcea yard in developing capabilities to build complete cruise vessels of lower complexity − Utilisation of Vard engineering facilities |
• Ongoing |
| Capex plan | • New capex to serve the important Cruise production plan and to leverage on market dynamics (bigger cruise ships): − Improvement of workflow and capacity at Monfalcone and Marghera shipyards − New design tools and processes |
• 2016-2017 |
| Increase of workforce productivity and flexibility |
• Agreement with the trade unions on a "second layer" labour contract introducing new forms of performance based compensation, based on productivity and efficiency targets to the workforce |
• 2016 |
Shipbuilding - Naval: market opportunities
Fincantieri's accessible markets
- Countries with naval shipbuilding capabilities where the Group already operates
- − Italy: Italian Navy's fleet renewal program and other programs (e.g. FREMM)
- − US: LCS program
- Countries with no strong local shipbuilder or with no significant naval technologies
- − Cumulated spending programs amount to € 31.8 BN over 2016-2020
- − 60% of estimated 2016-2020 spending for naval vessels is related to a group of 10 countries
Source: IHS Jane's – October 2015, Fincantieri analysis
Spending by country (foreign markets accessible to Fincantieri)
Source: IHS Jane's – October 2015, Fincantieri analysis
Shipbuilding - Naval: commercial strategy
| Description | Timing/status | |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidation and development of existing programs |
• Italy: execution of Italian Navy's fleet renewal program − 9 vessels in backlog (7 Multipurpose Offshore Patrol units, 1 Logistic Support Ship, 1 Multipurpose amphibious unit) − options for 3 vessels (Multipurpose Offshore Patrol units) • US: completion of current backlog of LCS program and participation to the tender for |
• Deliveries up to 2026 |
| the continuation of the program − 9 vessels in backlog − 1 option − tender for the continuation of the program • Significant share of Business Plan revenues covered by contracts, options and commercial negotiations with high likelihood of finalisation |
• Deliveries up to 2020 • Option to be funded in 2016 • Tender from 2016 onward |
• Expansion in new markets, leveraging well-proven products with new potential clients
Shipbuilding: quantifying main drivers of growth and increasing profitability
Cruise ships >90k TSL: revenues per lower berth by delivery year
• Fewer prototypes to be delivered from 2017: lower execution risks, better margins
• Positive trend due to progressive kick-in of ships acquired after the crisis
• Increase towards the end of Business Plan horizon thanks to the Italian Navy program and development of opportunities abroad
Offshore: market overview
Description
Offshore Oil&Gas: forecast (2016-2020)
- Negative outlook for PSV and AHTS demand due to oversupply following oil price fall and significant postponements of drilling projects
- Opportunities in OSCV sub-segment, notably in Middle East region
- Expected recovery in demand starting from 2018
New business opportunities
- Offshore wind: expected installed capacity in 2020 at 27,9 GW (2014-2020 CAGR at 23%)
- Aquaculture: sustained market growth with increasing complexity related to higher technological and industrial contents
- Exploration cruise: strong market growth (e.g. recent Vard LOI from Ponant)
E&P Capex
Sources: Pareto E&P Survey 2015, 24/08/2015, E&P CAPEX estimated based on announced expenditure budget (54 E&P companies); INTSOK, Annual Offshore Market Report 2015 (2016-2019) – June 2015
Offshore wind: expected demand for SOVs(1) for O&M(2) activities of new offshore plants
Source: EWEA - Wind energy scenarios for 2020 (High Scenario)
Aquaculture: growth of aquaculture vs traditional fishing
Offshore: strategy and action plan
| Description | Timing/status | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | • Diversification into new vessel segments: − aquaculture − offshore wind − passenger (exploration cruise) and Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) in cooperation with Fincantieri (e.g. LOI Ponant) • Expansion of offshore business in Middle East region |
• Started in 2015 – 100% of Vard 2015 orders came from new clients |
|
| Yards structure in Europe |
• Focus of Norwegian yards on core market segments and highly specialised vessels • Focus of Aukra yard on aquaculture sector, leveraging its location in the maritime cluster on the west coast of Norway • Development of Romanian yards to deliver complete vessels of low complexity • Consolidation of expertise in the production of cruise vessel sections, providing base load for the Tulcea yard in the next years |
• 2016 |
|
| Rationalisation of production structure in Brazil |
• Phasing out of shipbuilding activities at Niterói yard after completion of current order book (Q2 2016) • Strategic decision to maintain a foothold in Brazil through Vard Promar in order to seize local market opportunities • Process initiated with the client Transpetro and other stakeholders to recover extra costs incurred in LPG carrier project |
• Q2 2016 • Ongoing |
|
| Improvement of cost position and operating efficiency |
• Continued focus on rightsizing of operations with improvements to increase efficiency and quality • Strengthening of procurement efficiency • Increase of the scope of work in Romania to lower the average cost base |
• Started in 2015 |
Equipment, Systems and Services: strategy
| Description | Timing/status | |
|---|---|---|
| Continuous growth of traditional businesses |
• Systems & Components: development of the relevant backlog (e.g. renewal of Italian Navy's fleet) and increase of non-captive business (e.g. turbines) • Naval after-sales: expansion of service range towards full lifecycle management |
• Ongoing |
| Consolidation of the cabins business (Marine Interiors) |
• Business area insourced in 2015 through an acquisition • Capex to support volumes growth included • 80% of cabin supplies over 2016-2020 expected to be assigned to Marine Interiors |
• Ongoing |
| Consolidation of the integrated systems business (Fincantieri SI) |
• Business area started up in 2015 • Expansion of product range and role as main contractor • Further development of non-captive business |
• Ongoing |
| Insourcing of other high value added businesses |
• Further insourcing of high value added businesses: − HVAC − public areas |
• From 2016 |
- Development in the medium term of further after-sale activities
- − in Marine Interiors and Fincantieri SI businesses
- − in businesses to be insourced (HVAC, public areas)
- − with a focus on cruise business
Short and medium term financial targets (1/2)
Short and medium term financial targets (2/2)
- Current funding needs driven by higher cruise volumes, implying a relevant amount of working capital employed in construction projects due to payment terms of cruise contracts
- This trend is expected to continue during 2016 due to deployment of cruise backlog and production timing of naval programs
-
Fincantieri is well prepared to cover the expected funding needs thanks to the available credit lines (approx. € 1.0 BN for Fincantieri S.p.A. only, of which € 590 MM of committed revolving credit facilities, € 150 MM of committed construction loans and € 260 MM of uncommitted credit lines) and the utilization of structured funding sources (reverse factoring and other forms of construction financing currently under negotiation). Trend of working capital vs. construction loans and gross short term debt is as follows:
-
Future cash flow generation sustained by increased profitability on backlog, generating available cash once cruise growth has reached steady state, allowing for:
- − Capex funding
- − Net debt reduction
- − Dividend distribution (starting with 2017 net income)
Q&A