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Evotec SE — Investor Presentation 2013
Nov 15, 2013
151_rns_2013-11-15_4f2c3f67-d36e-4f4b-bf30-8bede5e6a925.pdf
Investor Presentation
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^< Recommendation: BUY(BUY)
Risk: Medium (Medium) Price Target: EUR 4.50 (4.50)
13 November 2013
9M/2013 figures
- Revenues for 9M/13 decreased to EUR 60.3m (PY: EUR 64.2m; -6%), while the base revenues rose by 3% in 9M/13. In 3Q/13, Evotec reported revenues of EUR 23.6m (PY: EUR 22.2m; +7%). The operating loss for 9M/13 amounted to EUR 4.2m, mainly due to the impairment of tangible assets (EUR 1.1 m) and the impairment of goodwill (EUR 1.9m) as a consequence of the decision to cease operations in India. Operating result for 3Q/13 was positive at EUR 0.2m. Liquidity at the end of September 2013 amounted to EUR 84.7m.
- The management has confirmed its 2013 guidance. Revenues are expected to be within EUR 90-100m. Gross margins in 2013 should improve slightly compared to previous year. R&D expenses are expected to be ~EUR 10m in 2013. Operating result before impairment and changes in contingent consideration is expected to improve compared to prior year. The company increases its liquidity guidance to >EUR 90m by the end of 2013, excluding any potential cash outflow for M&A or similar transactions due to the capital inflow to Evotec of EUR 30m.
- While the published quarterly figures look unimpressive, it should be mentioned that the operating result varies significantly between quarters as the timing of milestone payments and partnering events is challenging to predict. We have slightly reduced our 2013 estimates and expect that the full year revenues will likely be at the lower end of the guidance. Despite trimmed estimates, we believe that the stock has a significant long term potential. In the third quarter and after reporting date the company made a significant advance in EVT Innovate (see next page). Evotec has considerably expanded its pipeline, which enhances the long-term potential of the company, in our view. Furthermore, in the short term we expect significant clinical data points to support the share price, should they will be positive.
- We leave our PT at EUR 4.50 and confirm our BUY recommendation.
| Y/E 31.12., EUR m | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 42.7 | 55.3 | 80.1 | 87.3 | 94.2 | 106.5 |
| Gross profit | 18.4 | 24.3 | 35.0 | 31.0 | 37.5 | 51.1 |
| EBITDA | -38.2 | 6.5 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 14.5 | 21.7 |
| EBIT | -42.3 | 1.7 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 4.0 | 13.0 |
| Net income/loss | -45.5 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 12.0 |
| EPS | -0.43 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Gross margin | 43.2% | 44.1% | 43.7% | 35.6% | 39.8% | 48.0% |
| EBITDA margin | -89.6% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 6.4% | 15.4% | 20.4% |
| EBIT margin | -99.1% | 3.1% | 6.5% | -3.7% | 4.3% | 12.2% |
| EV/Sales | 9.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
Source: Evotec AG; CBS Research AG
| Share price (dark) vs. TecDAX | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: CBS Research AG, Bloomberg | ||||||
| Change | new | 2012 old |
new | 2013E old |
new | 2014E old |
| Revenue | - | 87.3 | - | 94.2 | - | 106.5 |
| EBIT | - | -3.2 | - | 4.0 | - | 13.0 |
| EPS* | - | 0.02 | - | 0.03 | - | 0.09 |
| www.evotec.com | Sector: Biotechnology | |||||
| WKN: 566480 | DE0005664809 | |||||
| Reuters: EVTG.DE | Bloomberg: EVT GY | |||||
| Short company profile | ||||||
| Evotec is a drug discovery alliance and development | ||||||
| partnership company focused on rapidly progressing innovative product approaches with leading |
||||||
| pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. | ||||||
| Share data: | ||||||
| Share price (last closing price, EUR): | 4.06 | |||||
| Shares outstanding (m): | 130.13 | |||||
| Market capitalisation (EURm): | 528.48 396.95 |
|||||
| Enterprise value (EURm): | ||||||
| Ø daily trading volume (3 m., no. of shares): 1,854,421 |
||||||
| Performance data: | ||||||
| High 52 weeks (EUR): | 5.08 | |||||
| Low 52 weeks (EUR): | 2.06 | |||||
| Absolute performance (12 months): | 0.53 | |||||
| Relative performance: (vs. TecDAX) | ||||||
| 1 month 3 months |
16.4% 38.4% |
|||||
| 6 months | 26.3% | |||||
| 12 months | 9.3% | |||||
| Shareholders: | ||||||
| Roland Oetker/ROI | <15% | |||||
| TVM V Life Science Ventures | <10% | |||||
| BVF | <10% | |||||
| DAWN | >3% | |||||
| Free float | >65% | |||||
| Igor Kim (Analyst) Author |
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG Phone: +49 (0) 69-977 84 56 0 Email: [email protected]
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag
Please notice the information on the preparation of this document, the disclaimer, the advice regarding possible conflicts of interests, and the mandatory information required by § 34b WpHG (Securities Trading Law) at the end of this document. This financial analysis in accordance with § 34b WpHG is exclusively intended for distribution to individuals that buy or sell financial instruments at their own account or at the account of others in connection with their trading activities, occupation, or employment.
Newsflow
In 3Q/13 and after the reporting date Evotec made a significant advance in EVT Innovative:
- 1) CureMN: Third collaboration with the Harvard Stem Cell Institute to identify compounds that prevent or slow down the loss of motor neurons, which is characteristic of the human disease amyotrophic lateral sclerosis ("ALS").
- 2) TargetEEM (Enteroendocrine Mechanisms): The second research collaboration with Doug Melton laboratory is a comprehensive screening effort by Harvard and Evotec designed to systematically search for novel pathways and targets that have the potential to address key pathophysiological mechanisms involved in insulin resistance and energy handling.
- 3) An agreement with AstraZeneca to explore compounds and targets with novel mechanisms that have disease modifying potential for the treatment of chronic kidney diseases. The agreement triggered an undisclosed upfront payment, milestones and royalty payments related to commercialization.
- 4) TargetAD (Alzheimer's disease): Collaboration with the Johnson & Johnson Innovation Center to identify new drug targets for discovery of novel treatment approaches to Alzheimer's disease. Janssen (member of J&J) will fund target discovery research via a combination of defined research payments and progress-related milestones over the next three years. Janssen will have the opportunity to internalise selected targets and therapeutic candidates from the TargetAD database and progress them into pre-clinical and clinical development. Janssen will reimburse up to USD 10m in FTE-based research costs and make pre-clinical, clinical, regulatory and commercial payments up to a maximum of between ~USD 125m to USD 145m per programme upon achieving agreed-upon milestones. In addition, Evotec will receive royalties on future sales of any products that may result from the alliance.
Significant clinical data points ahead
In the near future Evotec expects the following clinical data news:
- 1) Results of a second pivotal trial with DiaPep277 are expected in late 2014.
- 2) Results from EVT302 (by Roche) clinical trial with patients with moderateseverity Alzheimer's disease are expected in early 2015.
- 3) From the license agreement with Janssen for its NR2B subtype selective NMDA-antagonist portfolio for the development against diseases in the field of depression, Evotec expects to receive a significant milestone before end of 2013. The company expects that Janssen will initiate Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of depression early in 2014.
Pipeline overview
| Diabetes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molecules | Indication (mechanism) | Partner | Status | Next milestone | Commercials |
| DiaPep277 | Type 1 diabetes (immunomodulation) |
TEVA/ Andromeda |
2nd Phase III recruitment |
Final Phase III data | ~EUR 40m milestones, royalties; potential market ~EUR 500m |
| EVT770 | Type 1 and 2 diabetes (beta cell regeneration) |
MedImmune/ AstraZeneca |
closed Lead |
Phase I | EUR 5m upfront, high margin research payments EUR 254m milestones/ product, |
| ALM | Type 1 and 2 diabetes (beta cell regeneration) |
MedImmune/ AstraZeneca |
Discovery | Phase I | royalties EUR 2m upfront; High margin research payments EUR 183m milestones/ product; |
| EVT070 | Type 1 and 2 diabetes (beta cell regeneration) |
Boehringer Ingelheim |
Lead | PDC | royalties EUR 7m upfront; High margin research payments EUR 237m milestones, royalties |
| CureBeta | Type 1 and 2 diabetes (beta cell regeneration) |
Janssen | Target ID/ validation |
Validated Target | EUR 8m upfront; High margin research payments USD 300m milestones/ product; |
| CureNephron Chronic Kidney Disease | Harvard | Discovery | Pharma partnership | royalties TBD | |
| TargetEEM | Type 1 and 2 diabetes (enteroendocrine mechanisms) |
Harvard | Discovery | Pharma partnership | TBD |
| Various | (beta cell regeneration) Kidney Diseases |
AstraZeneca Discovery | ND | Undisclosed upfront, high margin research payments milestones/product, royalties |
Neurology
| Molecules | Indication (mechanism) | Partner | Status | Next milestone | Commercials |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVT302 | Alzheimer's | Roche | Phase IIb | Phase II completion, | EUR 12m upfront; USD 820m milestones, |
| Disease (MAO-B) | Phase III start | significant royalties | |||
| EVT100 | Depression (NR2B) | Janssen | Pre-clinical | II, Phase III start Confirmation of pre |
EUR 2m upfront; USD 160m milestones, |
| series | clinical study; Phase I/II | significant royalties | |||
| EVT201 | Insomnia | Jingxin | Phase II | start Start clinical trials |
Milestones, royalties |
| Various | Huntington | CHDI | Target | ND | Research payments |
| Disease | validation | ||||
| Not disclosed Neurodegenration | Genentech | Pre-clinical | ND | Research payments | |
| Not disclosed Neurodegenration | ONO | Discovery | ND | Up to USD 10m research payments, ~USD | |
| 125-145m milestones, royalties | |||||
| TargetAD | Alzheimer's | J&J | Discovery | ND | |
| Disease (Novel MoA) | Innovation | ||||
| TargetASIC | Multiple sclerosis | BMBF/ | Lead | Lead status | Co-funded |
| undisclosed | generation | ||||
| CureMN | Amyothropic Lateral Sclerosis | Pharma Harvard |
Discovery | Pharma Partnership | TBD |
Pain and inflammation
(ALS)
| Molecules | Indication (mechanism) | Partner | Status | Next milestone | Commercials |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVT401 | Inflammation (P2X7 inhibiton) |
Conba Group Phase I/II | Phase II start | ~EUR 60m milestones; Royalties | |
| Various | Endometriosis | Bayer | Pre-clinical | Pre-clinical candidate |
Upfront EUR 12m; total value up to ~EUR 580m; Royalties |
| Various | Various / Pain | Boehringer Ingelheim |
Pre-clinical | Phase I start | Undisclosed upfront; Research payments; Milestones; Royalties |
| Various | Inflammation | UCB | Pre-clinical | Preclinical | High margin research payments EUR 183m milestones/ product |
| Undisclosed | Various/Pain | Novartis | Pre-clinical | Successful PoC | Significant royalties Research payments; Milestones; Royalties |
Oncology
| Molecules | Indication (mechanism) | Partner | Status | Next milestone | Commercials |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somatropim (DG3173) |
Acromegaly / NET | Aspireo | Phase IIa | Pharma partnership | Consulting fees; Royalties |
| Various | Various | Boehringer Ingelheim |
Phase I | Various | Research payments; Milestones; Royalties |
| TargetCbl-b | Various (immunotherapy) | Apeiron | Pre-clinical | Pharma partnership | Shared research costs; Milestones; Royalties |
| TargetKDM | E Various (Epigenetic targets) p |
Belfer Institute |
Pre-clinical | Pharma partnership | ND |
| TargetFGFR3 E | i Bladder cancer p |
Internal | H2L | ND | ND |
| TargetIDH | i E Various (Epigenetic targets) p |
Internal | H2L | ND | ND |
Source: Evotec AG; CBS Research AG i
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Disclaimer and statement according to § 34b German Securities Trading Act ("Wertpapierhandelsgesetz") in combination with the provisions on financial analysis ("Finanzanalyseverordnung" FinAnV)
This report has been prepared independently of the company analysed by Close Brothers Seydler Research AG and/ or its cooperation partners and the analyst(s) mentioned on the front page (hereafter all are jointly and/or individually called the 'author'). None of Close Brothers Seydler Research AG, Close Brothers Seydler Bank AG or its cooperation partners, the Company or its shareholders has independently verified any of the information given in this document.
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Recommendation System:
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG uses a 3-level absolute share rating system. The ratings pertain to a time horizon of up to 12 months:
BUY: The expected performance of the share price is above +10%. HOLD: The expected performance of the share price is between 0% and +10%. SELL: The expected performance of the share price is below 0%.
Recommendation history over the last 12 months for the company analysed in this report:
| Date | Recommendation | Price at change date | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 November 2013 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 4.06 | EUR 4.50 |
| 28 October 2013 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 3.95 | EUR 4.50 |
| 15 October 2013 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 3.40 | EUR 4.00 |
| 02 September 2013 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 2.62 | EUR 4.00 |
| 08 August 2013 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 2.59 | EUR 3.90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 July 2013 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 2.49 | EUR 3.90 |
| 05 June 2013 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 2.75 | EUR 3.90 |
| 26 March 2013 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 2.36 | EUR 3.90 |
| 18 December 2012 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 2.73 | EUR 3.90 |
| 08 November 2012 | BUY (Company Update) | EUR 2.82 | EUR 3.90 |
Risk-scaling System:
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG uses a 3-level risk-scaling system. The ratings pertain to a time horizon of up to 12 months:
LOW: The volatility is expected to be lower than the volatility of the benchmark MEDIUM: The volatility is expected to be equal to the volatility of the benchmark HIGH: The volatility is expected to be higher than the volatility of the benchmark
The following valuation methods are used when valuing companies: Multiplier models (price/earnings, price/cash flow, price/book value, EV/Sales, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), peer group comparisons, historical valuation approaches, discounting models (DCF, DDM), break-up value approaches or asset valuation approaches. The valuation models are dependent upon macroeconomic measures such as interest, currencies, raw materials and assumptions concerning the economy. In addition, market moods influence the valuation of companies. The figures taken from the income statement, the cash flow statement and the balance sheet upon which the evaluation of companies is based are estimates referring to given dates and therefore subject to risks. These may change at any time without prior notice.
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