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Equinor

Management Reports Feb 7, 2024

3597_rns_2024-02-07_644a1847-15a1-4aca-862e-8b1fcef6d1d6.pdf

Management Reports

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Capital Markets Update 2024

FEBRUARY 7TH, 2024 LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM

Forward-looking statements

As used in this presentation, the term "Equinor" and such terms as "the company," "the corporation," "our," "we," "us" and "its" may refer to Equinor ASA, one or more of its consolidated subsidiaries, or to all of them taken as a whole. These terms are used for convenience only and are not intended as a precise description of any of the separate companies.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning, inter alia, Equinor's business, financial condition, future prospects and results of operations that are based on current estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industries in which Equinor operates and the current expectations and assumptions of Equinor's management. Forward-looking statements include all statements other than statements of historical facts, including, among others, statements regarding future financial or operational performance, value creation, returns, distributions, and execution or performance of projects, management objectives and targets, our expectations as to the achievement of certain targets (including those related to our climate ambitions) and expectations, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances, including strategies, plans (including our energy transition plan), ambitions or outlook. In some cases, we use words such as "aim", "ambitions", "continue", "anticipate", "likely", "believe", "could", "estimate", "expect", "goals", "indicative", "intend", "may", "milestones", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "strategy", "probably", "guidance", "project", "risks", "schedule", "seek", "should", "target", "will" or similar statements or variations of such words and other similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain such terms.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on current views and assumptions and are, by their nature, subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside Equinor's control and are difficult to predict, that may cause actual results or developments to differ materially from any future results or developments expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by forward-looking statements include, among others: levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, in particular in light of significant oil, natural gas and electricity price volatility; unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and inflationary pressures; exchange rate fluctuations; levels and calculations of reserves and material differences from reserves estimates; regulatory stability; access to oil, gas, low carbon and/or renewable energy resources, acreage and opportunities; the effects of climate change and changes in stakeholder sentiment and regulatory requirements regarding climate change; changes in market demand and supply for oil, gas, renewables and low carbon solutions; inability to meet strategic objectives; the development and use of new technology; social and/or political instability, including as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East; failure to prevent or manage digital and cyber disruptions to our information and operational technology systems and those of third parties on which we rely; operational problems, including cost inflation in capital and operational expenditures; unsuccessful drilling; availability of adequate infrastructure at commercially viable prices; the actions of field partners and other third-parties; reputational damage; the actions of competitors; the actions of the Norwegian state as majority shareholder and exercise of ownership by the Norwegian state; changes or uncertainty in or non-compliance with anti-corruption and bribery laws, anti-money laundering laws, competition and antitrust laws or other laws and governmental regulations, conditions or requirements and inability to obtain favorable government/third party approvals to activities and transactions; adverse changes in tax regimes; the political and economic policies of Norway and other

oil/energy-producing countries; regulations on hydraulic fracturing and low-carbon value chains; liquidity, interest rate, equity and credit risks; risk of losses relating to trading and commercial supply activities; an inability to attract and retain personnel; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems; inadequate insurance coverage; health, safety and environmental risks; physical security risks to personnel, assets, infrastructure and operations from hostile or malicious acts; failure to meet our ethical, human rights and social standards; non-compliance with, international trade sanctions and other factors discussed under "Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2022, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Readers should also consult any further disclosures we may make in documents we file with or furnish to the SEC.

All oral and written forward-looking statements made on or after the date of this presentation and attributable to Equinor are expressly qualified in their entirety by the above factors. Any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Equinor speak only as of the date they are made. Except as required by applicable law, we do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

The achievement of our climate ambitions depends, in part, on broader societal shifts in consumer demands and technological advancements, each of which are beyond our control. Should society's demands and technological innovation not shift in parallel with our pursuit of our energy transition plan, our ability to meet our climate ambitions will be impaired. The calculation of the Equinor's net carbon intensity presented herein includes an estimate of emissions from the use of sold products (GHG protocol category 11) as a means to more accurately evaluate the emission lifecycle of what we produce to respond to the energy transition and potential business opportunities arising from shifting consumer demands. Including these emissions in the calculations should in no way be construed as an acceptance by Equinor of responsibility for the emissions caused by such use.

This presentation also contains financial information which is not presented in accordance with International Financial reporting Standards (IFRS). Please refer to our filings with the SEC for disclosures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable IFRS measures of non-IFRS financial measures contained herein. This presentation may contain certain forward-looking non-IFRS measures such as organic capex, CFFO after taxes paid, net debt ratio and ROACE. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of these forward-looking non-IFRS measures as they are not reconcilable to their most directly comparable IFRS measures without unreasonable efforts because the amounts excluded from the relevant IFRS measures used to determine these forward-looking non-IFRS measures cannot be predicted with reasonable certainty.

We use certain terms, such as "resource" and "resources", in this presentation that the SEC's rules prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Readers are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, SEC File No. 1-15200, (available at Equinor's website www.equinor.com and www.sec.gov).

These materials shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, nor shall there be any offer, solicitation or sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

Capital Markets Update 2024

Profitable growth towards 2035

Anders Opedal PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

OUR EQUITY STORY

Clear strategy for transition and growth

2023 PERFORMANCE

Always safe

Serious incident frequency (SIF) Serious incidents and near-misses per million hours worked. 12-month average.

1.2 1.1

4.2 4.4

3.8

3.8

Total recordable injury frequency (TRIF) Personal injuries per million hours worked. 12-month average.

Oil and gas leakages Number of leakages with rate

above 0.1 kg/second during the past 12 months.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

3.0 2.7 2.5 2.8

2.3 2.4

2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4

2023

2023 PERFORMANCE

Solid progress on 2030 ambitions

  • Strong earnings and capital discipline
  • Delivering competitive capital distribution
  • Production growth and sanctioning of new projects
  • Delivering on increased MMP guiding
  • Progressing renewables and low carbon solutions

36 BN USD

Adjusted earnings

20

BN USD Cash flow from operations after tax (CFFO)

25

PERCENT Return on average capital employed Adjusted (RoACE)

High value Low carbon

6.7 KG / BOE

CO2 upstream intensity

Scope 1 CO2 emissions, Equinor operated, 100% basis

20

PERCENT

Gross capex to transition

Renewables & Low Carbon Solution share (REN & LCS)

8

G W

Renewables pipeline additions Equinor share, unrisked

OUR AMBITIONS

BN USD

Transition and growth to 2035

Stronger cash flow

26

BN USD

after tax

gCO2e/MJ ENERGY - Net carbon intensity scope 1,2, and 3 from use of our products

  1. Based on reference case 75 USD/bbl, see appendix for key assumptions and definitions

1

  1. Decarbonised energy defined as hydrogen, ammonia and gas to power with CCS, see appendix for more details

  2. See equinor.com for more details around energy transition plan

OIL AND GAS

Strong portfolio with long term cash flow

  • Break even ~35 USD/bbl, projects coming on stream next 10 years
  • Above 5% production growth from 2023 to 2026
  • Industry leading carbon efficiency and execution capabilities

Key projects coming on stream4

  1. Total expected recoverable resources (100%) and indicative start-up years

OIL AND GAS

E&P International

50% cash flow growth to 2030

E&P Norway

Long term value to 2035

  1. Based on reference case 75 USD/bbl, see appendix for key assumptions and definitions

RENEWABLES

Profitable and disciplined growth

  • Firm on strategy, flexible on execution
  • Solid project pipeline under maturation
  • Value uplift from flexible power offering

12-16 G W Installed capacity 2030 Equinor share

4-8

PERCENT Real base project return1 12-16

PERCENT

65

TWh Power generation 2035 Equinor share

Nominal equity return2

  1. Internal rate of return after tax, full-cycle, excluding effects from farm downs and project financing 2. Based on projects with first power in 2023 - Dogger Bank & Solar plants in Europe (including effects from farm downs and project financing)

LOW CARBON SOLUTIONS

Increasing CCS ambition

  • Building the infrastructure of tomorrow
  • Collaboration across the value chain

COMPETITIVE CAPITAL DISTRIBUTION

USD 14 billion total expected capital distribution 20241

Growing, resilient ordinary cash dividend

  • 17% increase in ordinary cash dividend to 35 cents per share
  • Ambition to grow cash dividend by 2 cents per year
  • Expect to conclude extraordinary cash dividend after 2024

Increased share buy-back predictability

  • Two-year share buy-back programme of USD 10-12 billion
  • 2024 share buy-back of USD 6 billion, first tranche USD 1.2 billion
  • Long-term annual share buy-back level of USD 1.2 billion
  • Share buy-back subject to market outlook and balance sheet strength

  1. The 4Q 2023 cash dividends are subject to approval by the AGM in 2024. The 1Q-3Q 2024 cash dividends and new share buy-back tranches in 2024 and 2025 will be decided by the Board on a quarterly basis in line with Equinor's dividend policy and will be subject to existing and new board authorizations from the AGM. New share buy-back tranches will further be subject to existing and new agreements with the Norwegian state regarding share buy-back. All share buy-back amounts include shares to be redeemed from the Norwegian state.

OUR AMBITIONS

Profitable growth towards 2035

Stronger cash flow

  • CFFO after tax USD >26 bn by 2035
  • Target RoACE ~15% in 2035
  • USD 14 bn expected capital distribution in 2024

Broader energy

  • 80 TWh renewables and decarbonised energy by 2035

  • 65 TWh renewables power generation by 2035

  • 30-50 MTPA CO2 transport and storage capacity by 2035

Lower emissions1

  • 50% reduction of operated emissions by 2030
  • 50% gross capex to transition by 2030

  • 40% reduction in net carbon intensity by 2035

  • See equinor.com for more details around energy transition plan

2024

Capital Markets Update, 4Q23 and full year results

Delivering strong returns while transitioning

Torgrim Reitan CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

DELIVERIES 2023

Fourth quarter and full year

Financial and operational performance

  • Solid operational performance and strong production in 4Q
  • Strong adjusted earnings and cash flow from operations

Strategic progress

  • Optimising oil and gas portfolio
  • 10-year gas-sales agreement with SEFE
  • Empire Wind swap for 100% ownership

8.7 BN USD

Adjusted earnings 4Q23

2.6 BN USD

Net income 4Q23

15 Capital Markets Update 2024 Open 07 February 2024

8.7 BN USD

Net operating income 4Q23

19.7 BN USD Full year cash flow from operations after tax

2023

2023

MBOE/D

Equity production

Oil and gas

Oil and gas production

  • Solid full year operational performance, despite prolonged turnarounds on the NCS
  • International production growth from Brazil, UK, US
  • Strong 4Q NCS production, driven by Johan Sverdrup phase 2

Power

  • Renewable power generation 17% higher than 2022, driven by onshore renewables in Poland and Brazil
  • Lower quarterly gas-to-power generation from Triton Power

Open 07 February 2024

4Q 2023

Financial results

Highlights

  • Strong earnings, impacted by lower prices
  • E&P Norway driven by increased production
  • Strong international results
  • Higher tax rate, mainly due to one-off effects
  • Net impairment of USD 328 million

Realised prices 4Q23 4Q22
Liquids (USD/bbl) 75.7 80.4
European gas
(USD/MMBtu)
13.07 29.84
N. American gas
(USD/MMBtu)
2.07 5.40
Adjusted earnings
USD million
4Q23 4Q22
Pre-tax Post-tax Pre-tax Post-tax
E&P Norway 7,571 1,570 14,594 3,300
E&P Int 690 255 676 367
E&P US 168 78 474 450
MMP 424 143 1,416 831
REN (179) (146) (87) (97)
Group 8,681 1,879 17,014 4,719

2023

Cash flow

  • Strong cash flow from operations
  • Organic capex USD 10.2 billion for full year 2023
  • 4Q Highlights:
    • NCS tax payment of USD 7.9 billion
      • 1H 2024: Three instalments of NOK 37 billion each
    • Significant capital distribution of USD 3.2 billion1
    • Strong balance sheet with cash, cash equivalents and financial investments of USD 38.9 billion
    • Net debt ratio of negative 21.6%2
Cash Flow
USD million
4Q23 FY 2023
Cash flow from operations3 10,890 48,016
Total taxes paid (8,103) (28,276)
Cash flow from operations after tax4 2,787 19,741
Capital distribution1 (3,224) (16,494)
Cash flow to investments5 (2,978) (11,858)
Proceeds from sale of assets 154 272
Net
cash flow
(3,262) (8,340)
  1. Cash dividend and share buy-back executed in the market

    1. Adjusted, excluding IFRS 16 impact;
    1. CFFO FY 2023: Income before tax USD 37.9 billion + non-cash items USD 10.1 billion. Excludes changes in working capital items
    1. Excludes changes in working capital
    1. Including inorganic investments and increase/decrease in other interest-bearing items

2030 FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK

Building for the future

  1. Free cash flow neutral before capital distribution, based on lower case 55 USD/bbl (excluding 2023 tax lag), see appendix for key assumptions and definitions 3. See equinor.com for more details around energy transition plan

Strong cash flow driving future growth

  • Significant cash flow growth
  • REN & LCS material contribution in 2030
  • Stable O&G capex while growing investments to transition
  • Significant capex flexibility
  • Maintain cost and capital discipline

  1. Cash flow from operations after tax, see appendix for key assumptions and definitions

    1. Organic capex, see appendix for key assumptions and definitions
    1. Based on reference case 75 USD/bbl, see appendix for key assumptions and definitions

OIL AND GAS

Positioned for short and long term value creation

  • Stable investments through the decade
  • Portfolio prioritisation ensuring robustness and flexibility
  • Focused international portfolio drives cash flow growth to 2030
  • NCS portfolio providing long term production and cash flow to 2035

  • Includes sanctioned, non-sanctioned and IOGR projects. Price assumptions, definitions, and project list available in appendix (list not exhaustive.)

Upstream projects coming on stream within 10 years2

35 USD / BBL

Break-even Volume weighted average

2.5

YEARS Average pay-back time Based on reference case 75 USD/bbl. Volume weighted from production start

~ 30 ~

PERCENT

Internal rate of return

Based on reference case 75 USD/bbl. Volume weighted average. Real terms

~ 6

KG / BOE

<

CO2 upstream intensity

Project lifetime intensity. Scope 1 CO2 emissions, Equinor operated, 100% basis

Indicative capex allocation1 2024-2030

RENEWABLES AND LOW CARBON SOLUTIONS

Value driven growth

Material cash flow contribution

  • Creating value through cycles
  • Delivering cash flow from a broad project portfolio
    • USD ~3 billion by 2030
    • USD >6 billion by 2035

Capex growth supporting our strategy

  • Significant difference between gross and organic capex (net)
  • Maintain capital discipline
  • Organic capex split to 2030:
  • ~45% offshore wind, ~25% onshore, ~30% LCS

  • Cash flow from operations, REN and LCS, net to Equinor 2. Includes 100% ownership of Empire Wind and no effects from project finance

Indicative capex allocation Renewables & Low carbon solutions BN USD

COMPETITIVE CAPITAL DISTRIBUTION

USD 14 billion total expected capital distribution 20241

Growing, resilient ordinary cash dividend

  • 17% increase in ordinary cash dividend to 35 cents per share
  • Ambition to grow cash dividend by 2 cents per year
  • Expect to conclude extraordinary cash dividend after 2024

Increased share buy-back predictability

  • Two-year share buy-back programme of USD 10-12 billion
  • 2024 share buy-back of USD 6 billion, first tranche USD 1.2 billion
  • Long-term annual share buy-back level of USD 1.2 billion
  • Share buy-back subject to market outlook and balance sheet strength

  1. The 4Q 2023 cash dividends are subject to approval by the AGM in 2024. The 1Q-3Q 2024 cash dividends and new share buy-back tranches in 2024 and 2025 will be decided by the Board on a quarterly basis in line with Equinor's dividend policy and will be subject to existing and new board authorizations from the AGM. New share buy-back tranches will further be subject to existing and new agreements with the Norwegian state regarding share buy-back. All share buy-back amounts include shares to be redeemed from the Norwegian state.

DELIVERING ON OUR STRATEGY

Outlook

  1. Based on USD/NOK of 10 2. See appendix for key assumptions and definitions

OUR AMBITIONS

Profitable growth towards 2035

Stronger cash flow

  • CFFO after tax USD >26 bn by 2035
  • Target RoACE ~15% in 2035
  • USD 14 bn expected capital distribution in 2024

Broader energy

  • 80 TWh renewables and decarbonised energy by 2035

  • 65 TWh renewables power generation by 2035

  • 30-50 MTPA CO2 transport and storage capacity by 2035

Lower emissions1

  • 50% reduction of operated emissions by 2030
  • 50% gross capex to transition by 2030

  • 40% reduction in net carbon intensity by 2035

  • See equinor.com for more details around energy transition plan

CONTACT INFORMATION

Investor Relations in Equinor

E-mail: [email protected]

Norway/UK

Nora Callander
IR Officer
[email protected] +47 98 65 66 39
Ingvar Egeland
IR Officer
[email protected] +47 99 32 2938
Anne Sofie Dahle
Senior Consultant
[email protected] +47 90 88 75 54
Nate Mital
IR Officer
[email protected] +1 469-927-5677
Ieva Ozola
IR Manager
[email protected] +1 281-730-6014

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