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Equinor — Investor Presentation 2018
Feb 7, 2018
3597_rns_2018-02-07_5a46734d-e336-45d4-a5af-ee09a6d0835a.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Capital markets update
LONDON, FEBRUARY 7, 2018
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. In some cases, we use words such as "ambition", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "believe", "focus", "likely", "may", "outlook", "plan", "strategy", "will", "guidance" and similar expressions to identify forwardlooking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, among others, statements regarding plans and expectations with respect to market outlook and future economic projections and assumptions; Statoil's focus on capital discipline; expected annual organic production through 2017; projections and future impact of efficiency programmes including expected efficiency improvements, including expectations regarding costs savings from the improvement programme; capital expenditure and exploration quidance for 2017; production quidance; Statoil's value over volume strategy; organic capital expenditure for 2017; Statoil's intention to mature its portfolio; exploration and development activities, plans and expectations, including estimates regarding exploration activity levels; projected unit of production cost; equity production and expectations for equity production growth; planned maintenance and the effects thereof; impact of PSA effects; risks related to Statoil's production quidance; accounting decisions and policy judgments, ability to put exploration wells into profitable production, and the impact thereof; expected dividend payments, the scrip dividend programme and the timing thereof; estimated provisions and liabilities; and the projected impact or timing of administrative or governmental rules, standards, decisions or laws, including with respect to and future impact of legal proceedings are forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forwardlooking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forwardlooking statements for many reasons
These forward-looking statements reflect current views about future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing; price and availability of alternative fuels; currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations; the political and economic policies of Norway and other oil-producing countries; EU developments; general economic conditions; political and social stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; global political events and actions, including war, political hostilities and terrorism; economic sanctions, security breaches; changes or uncertainty in or noncompliance with laws and governmental regulations; the timing of bringing new fields or wells on stream;
an inability to exploit growth or investment opportunities; material differences from reserves estimates; unsuccessful drilling; an inability to find and develop reserves; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems; adverse changes in tax regimes; the development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; operational problems; operator error; inadequate insurance coverage; the lack of necessary transportation infrastructure when a field is in a remote location and other transportation problems; the actions of competitors; the actions of field partners; the actions of governments (including the Norwegian state as majority shareholder); counterparty defaults; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, climate change, and other changes to business conditions; an inability to attract and retain personnel; relevant governmental approvals; industrial actions by workers and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report. Additional information, including information on factors that may affect Statoil's business, is contained in Statoil's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2016, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (and section 2.10 Risk review - Risk factors thereof). Statoil's 2016 Annual Report and Form 20-F is available at Statoil's website www.statoil.com.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that our future results, level of activity, performance or achievements will meet these expectations. Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of these forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and, except as required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update any of these statements after the date of this report, whether to make them either conform to actual results or changes in our expectations or otherwise.
Prices used in the presentation material are given in real 2017 value, unless otherwise stated. We also confirm that we have obtained approval from IHS Markit, Barclays, IPA, Rushmore and Wood Mackenzie to publish data referred to on slides in this presentation.
Delivering high value
Eldar Sætre President and Chief Executive Officer
Delivering on our strategy
Always safe
Serious incident frequency1
High value
Break-even next generation portfolio2
Free cash flow positive below
2017 efficiency improvements
$1.3$ bn USD
Low carbon
$CO2$ emissions reduction per boe3
Above $109$
Operated offshore wind
750mw
-
Serious incidents per million work-hours.
-
Statoil- and partner-operated projects, sanctioned since 2015 or planned for sanction, with start-up by end of 2022. Volume weighted. 3. Statoil operated portfolio - compared to 2016.
Recovering markets - need for significant new energy supplies
Source: Platts, ICIS Heren, NYMEX. Historical prices are monthly averages. Planning assumptions are 2016 real. Demand scenarios are from Statoil Energy Perspectives 2017. 4.5% decline rate oil and gas.
Strong financial position - increasing dividend
-
- Organic free cash flow, excluding considerations from announced transactions.
-
- Assuming 70 USD/bbl, organic free cash flow, including announced transactions.
Committed to capital distribution
4Q dividend 0.23 USD per share3
- $\cdot$ 4.5% cash dividend increase
- Reflects earnings growth from sustainable improvements
Scrip program ended as planned
Scope for share buy-backs emerging
- Dependent on macro outlook and portfolio developments
-
Near term priority to strengthen balance sheet
-
Subject to approval at the Annual General Meeting (AGM).
Creating value from competence and technology
Value drivers
Operational excellence
World class recovery
Leading project Premium delivery market access
Digital leader
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Efficiency improvement 2013 to 2017.
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- Expected ultimate recovery year-end 2017, average.
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- Non-sanctioned or non-government approved projects (with identified business case) 2018 compared to 2016, assuming 70 USD/bbl.
-
- Statoil share
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- Barents Sea exploration campaign.
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- Oseberg Vestflanken, unmanned concept versus conventional, at concept selection
Norwegian continental shelf
$125$ kboe/ Improved production
$\mathcal{L}(\mathcal{L}){\mathcal{V}{\Omega}}$ Recovery2, aiming towards 60%
$\preceq$ $bn$ USD Net present value increase3
$\sqrt{a}$ AO $\frac{1}{2}$ bcm Gas produced, record high - at low cost4
$\int_{\Omega}$ Savings from first automated drilling5 and first unmanned platform6
A world class project portfolio
-
- Volume weighted.
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- Increase in value from 2017 to 2018.
-
- Assuming 70 USD/bbl.
Renewing and strengthening our resources
Transactions2: Carcará, Martin Linge, Roncador
14 commercial discoveries: Kayak, Cape Vulture, Verbier
License extensions: ACG, In Amenas
New growth opportunities: Argentina, Turkey
-
- Including all Carcará transactions, Argentina and Turkey.
-
- Subject to closing.
-
Non-sanctioned or non-government approved projects (with identified business case) 2018 compared to 2016, assuming 70 USD/bbl. Excludes unconventional.
Non-sanctioned projects with large potential3
Carcará
Troll phase 3
Bay du Nord
Increasing resources from 3 to
bn barrels Around
Increased net present value
Continuing the transformation
- Maintaining cost and financial discipline
- Locking in effects
-
Continuous improvement
-
USD/boe Statoil share, real, assuming fixed currency. 2. Assuming 70 USD/bbl.
Page 10 | by Eldar Sætre, President and Chief Executive Officer
Positioned for a low carbon future
Competitive advantage
- Industry leader on carbon intensity
- Stress-testing and transparent reporting
- Resilient in a low-carbon future
Low carbon oil & gas portfolio
- Ambitious $CO2$ emission reduction targets
- Exploring for competitive barrels
- Natural gas to replace coal
Industrial position in new energy
- Competitive returns $9-11\%$ 1
- 15-20% of capex by $2030^2$
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Maturing CCS3 project in Norway
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- Indicative new energy solutions, based on existing projects.
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- Indicative, based on potential future corporate portfolio.
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- Carbon capture and storage.
Delivering high value
| Growing cash flow, returns and dividend |
Cash flow around 12 bn USD 2018-2020 1 $\bullet$ RoACE around $12\%$ in $20201$ $\bullet$ Dividend growth $4.5\%$ 2 $\bullet$ |
|---|---|
| Investing in world class projects |
Next generation portfolio 3 - break-even of 21 USD/bbl $\bullet$ Johan Sverdrup Ph. 1 - break-even below 15 USD/bbl $\bullet$ Maintaining strict financial discipline $\bullet$ |
| Leveraging strengths to create value |
Operational excellence $\bullet$ • World class recovery Leading project delivery $\bullet$ Premium market access $\bullet$ Digital leader |
1 Assuming 70 USD/bbl.
- 2 Subject to approval at the Annual General Meeting (AGM).
3 Statoil- and partner-operated projects, sanctioned since 2015 or planned for sanction, with start-up by end of 2022. Volume weighted.
Delivering high value
Hans Jakob Hegge Chief Financial Officer
2017 | Strong financial results and deliveries
| Results | Adj. earnings 12.6 bn USD |
NOI 13.8 bn USD |
Free Cash Flow 3.1 bn USD |
RRR 150% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We promised | We delivered | |||
| Organic capex | $11$ bn USD | $9.4$ bn USD | ||
| Free cash flow positive | $50$ usp/bbl | Below $50$ USD/bbl | ||
| Production growth | $4 - 5%$ | Above $6\%$ | ||
| Exploration expenditure | $1.5$ bn USD | $1.3$ bn USD | ||
| Continuous improvement | $\frac{1}{\sqrt{2}}$ bn USD | $1.3$ bn USD 1 | ||
- Total 4.5 bn USD since 2013
Page 14 | by Hans Jakob Hegge, Chief Financial Officer
4Q 2017 | Solid adjusted earnings from all segments
| Group 1 at higher prices |
Record high production volumes | E&P Norway $\bullet$ Lower depreciation per boe $\bullet$ |
Solid operational performance | E&P International Increasing production |
Continued cost improvements | MMP Higher sale of piped gas $\bullet$ margins |
Strong regularity and refinery | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Million USD | Pre tax | After tax | Pre tax | After tax | Pre tax | After tax | Pre tax | After tax |
| 4Q' 17 | 3,956 | 1,306 | 3,004 | 819 | 438 | 199 | 533 | 292 |
| 4Q' 16 | 1,664 | (40) | 1,972 | 552 | (681) | 708) | 514 | 275 |
1. Includes segments; E&P Norway, E&P International, MMP and Other.
2017 | Valuable growth
- Record high quarterly and full year production
- Increased flexible gas production
- Increased production US onshore
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Start-up and ramp-up new fields
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Continued strict capital discipline
- Positive organic cash-flow 4Q 2017
- Net debt 29% impacted by
- Increase in working capital
- Value-enhancing transactions
1. Income before tax (13.420) + non-cash adjustments (7.251).
Improving from a strong position
Operational
Financial
Delivering high value
Page 18 | by Hans Jakob Hegge, Chief Financial Officer
Sustaining the transformed cost level
- USD/boe Statoil share, real, assuming fixed currency. 2. Organic capex at 8.25 USD/NOK.
Leading project delivery - world class portfolio
Page 20 | by Hans Jakob Hegge, Chief Financial Officer
High value production growth
Statoil equity production kboe/d
Major start-ups planned for 2018-20222
-
Compound annual growth rate.
-
Major projects (list not exhaustive), indicative plateau production, Statoil equity, kboe/d, not applicable for sum of production per year.
Strong cash flow generation - flexibility maintained
/ NBP USD per million Btu): 50/5.5, 70/6.5 and 90/8.5 2. Excluding dividend and changes in working capital.
Materially improving net debt ratio4 Below 15% at 70 USD/bbl
-
Excluding considerations.
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Including announced transactions.
Firm financial framework
Strong financial position
- A-category rating on stand-alone basis
- Net debt to capital employed ambition at 15-30%
4Q dividend 0.23 USD per share5
- $\cdot$ 4.5% cash dividend increase
- Reflects earnings growth from sustainable improvements
Scrip program ended as planned
Scope for share buy-backs emerging
- Dependent on macro outlook and portfolio developments
-
Near term priority to strengthen balance sheet
-
Subject to approval at the Annual General Meeting (AGM).
2018 | Guidance & outlook
| PERIOD $- - - - 0$ |
OUTLOOK | |
|---|---|---|
| Organic capex | 2018 | Around $11$ bn USD 1 |
| Exploration | 2018 | Around $1.5$ bn USD |
| Production | $2017 - 2018$ $2017 - 2020$ |
$1 - 2%$ $3 - 4%$ CAGR |
- Based on USD/NOK exchange rate of 8.25.
Page 23 | by Hans Jakob Hegge, Chief Financial Officer
Delivering high value
| Growing cash flow, returns and dividend |
Cash flow around 12 bn USD 2018-2020 1 $\bullet$ RoACE around $12\%$ in $20201$ $\bullet$ Dividend growth $4.5\%$ 2 $\bullet$ |
|---|---|
| Investing in world class projects |
Next generation portfolio 3 - break-even of 21 USD/bbl $\bullet$ Johan Sverdrup Ph. 1 - break-even below 15 USD/bbl $\bullet$ Maintaining strict financial discipline $\bullet$ |
| Leveraging strengths to create value |
Operational excellence $\bullet$ • World class recovery Leading project delivery $\bullet$ Premium market access $\bullet$ Digital leader |
1 Assuming 70 USD/bbl.
- 2 Subject to approval at the Annual General Meeting (AGM).
3 Statoil- and partner-operated projects, sanctioned since 2015 or planned for sanction, with start-up by end of 2022. Volume weighted.
Supplementary information
Long term debt maturity profile
Redemption profile 31.12.2017
Sensitivities1- indicative effects on 2018 results
Investing for profitable growth Investment profile 2018-19
2017 | Reserve replacement ratio of 150%
Reserve replacement ratio
- $-150\%$ total
- $-148\%$ organic
- 109% organic three-year average
Reserves
- 50/50 split oil and gas
- Around 70% at NCS
Resources
- Over 50% outside Norway
- 78% within OECD
Investor Relations in Statoil
E-mail: [email protected]
Investor Relations Europe
| Peter Hutton | Senior Vice President | [email protected] | +44 788 191 8792 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Valdresbråten | IR Officer | [email protected] | +47 40 28 17 89 |
| Erik Gonder | IR Officer | [email protected] | +47 99 56 26 11 |
| Anca Jalba | IR Officer | [email protected] | +47 41 08 79 88 |
| Marius Javier Sandnes | Senior Consultant | [email protected] | +47 90 15 50 93 |
| Anne Sofie Dahle | Senior Consultant | [email protected] | +47 90 88 75 54 |
Investor Relations USA & Canada
| Helge Hove Haldorsen | Vice President | [email protected] | +1 281 224 0140 |
|---|---|---|---|
| leva Ozola | IR Officer | [email protected] | +1 713 485 2682 |