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Equinor — Investor Presentation 2017
Feb 7, 2017
3597_rns_2017-02-07_3f48f631-0be9-4740-9e71-0cd22b236f86.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Statoil Capital Markets Update 2017 & 4Q Results 2016
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. In some cases, we use words such as "ambition", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "believe", "focus", "likely", "may", "outlook", "plan", "strategy", "will", "guidance" and similar expressions to identify forwardlooking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, among others, statements regarding plans and expectations with respect to market outlook and future economic projections and assumptions; Statoil's focus on c apital discipline; expected annual organic production through 2017; projections and future impact related to efficiency programmes, including expectations regarding costs savings from the improvement programme; capital expenditure and exploration guidance for 2017; production guidance; Statoil's value over volume strategy; Statoil's plans with regard to its completed acquisition of 66% operated interest in the BM-S-8 offshore license in the Santos basin; organic capital expenditure for 2017; Statoil's intention to mature its portfolio; exploration and development activities, plans and expectations, including estimates regarding exploration activity levels; projected unit of production cost; equity production; planned maintenance and the effects thereof; impact of PSA effects; risks related to Statoil's production guidance; accounting decisions and policy judgments and the impact thereof; expected dividend payments, the scrip dividend programme and the timing thereof; estimated provisions and liabilities; the projected impact or timing of administrative or governmental rules, standards, decisions, standards or laws, including with respect to the deviation notice issued by the Norwegian tax authorities and future impact of legal proceedings are forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward- looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements for many reasons.
These forward-looking statements reflect current views about future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing; price and availability of alternative fuels; currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations; the political and economic policies of Norway and other oil-producing countries; EU developments; general economic conditions; political and social stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; global political events and actions, including war, political hostilities and terrorism; economic sanctions, security breaches; changes or uncertainty in or non-compliance with laws and governmental regulations; the timing of bringing new fields on stream; an inability to exploit growth or investment opportunities; material differences from reserves estimates; unsuccessful drilling; an inability to find and develop reserves; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems; adverse changes in tax regimes; the development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; operational problems; operator error; inadequate insurance coverage; the lack of necessary transportation infrastructure when a field is in a remote location and other transportation problems; the actions of competitors; the actions of field partners; the actions of governments (including the Norwegian state as majority shareholder); counterparty defaults; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, climate change, and other changes to business conditions; an inability to attract and retain personnel; relevant governmental approvals; industrial actions by workers and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report. Additional information, including information on factors that may affect Statoil's business, is contained in Statoil's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (and in particular, Section 5.1 thereof (Risk factors)) which can be found on Statoil's website at www.statoil.com.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that our future results, level of activity, performance or achievements will meet these expectations. Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the forward-looking statements. Unless we are required by law to update these statements, we will not necessarily update any of these statements after the date of this report, either to make them conform to actual results or changes in our expectations.
London, 7 February 2017 Eldar Sætre – President and Chief Executive Officer
Reinforcing safety measures
Serious incident frequency
Serious incidents per million work-hours
Delivering on our promises
Faster and deeper cost reductions
Preparing to invest in next generation portfolio2
Capturing the upturn in oil and gas prices
New projects sanctioned
5
Project resources4 increased
1 bn boe
Yearly efficiencies
USD 3.2 bn
- 30%
Break-even improved to USD 27/bbl
CAPEX3 reduced to
~USD 10 bn
1 Reduction measured in USD since 2013.
2 Statoil- and partner-operated projects, sanctioned since 2015 or planned for sanction, with start-up by 2022. Volume weighted.
5 3 Organic capex 2016.
Opportunities in the energy transition
Scale calibrated for million b/d equivalent.
Sharpened strategy for enhanced value creation
Cash generation
- Low cost
- Low break-evens
- Long-life assets
Capex flexibility
- Operated positions
- Flexible onshore assets
- Cycle time efficiency
Value from cyclicality
- Portfolio management
- Supply chain efficiency
- Financial capacity
Low carbon advantage
- New energy business
- Carbon efficiency
- O&G portfolio shape
Delivering above target – raising the bar
Investing in next generation portfolio
2 Internal rate of return at project sanction assuming USD 70/bbl.
Capturing value from cyclicality
Seizing exploration opportunities
2 Gross divestments.
Building a profitable new energy business
Industrial approach
- Leverage core competence
- Scale & technology reduce costs
- Access to long-term projects
Value driven
- From subsidies to markets
- 9-11% return range (real)
- Cash flow resilience
Growth opportunities
- 15-20% of capex in 20302
- Offshore wind and other options
- Low-carbon solutions
Developing a distinct and competitive portfolio
Norwegian continental shelf
Build on unique position
- Highly cost competitive
- Attractive project pipeline
- Exploration potential
International oil & gas
Deepen core areas
- Enhance Brazil portfolio
- Flexible US position
- New growth options
High value, low carbon
Midstream and marketing
Access premium markets
- Flow assurance
- Asset backed trading
- Capital light
New energy solutions
Industrial approach
- Offshore wind focus
- Low-carbon solutions
- Ventures, R&D
Capitalising on high value opportunities
| Next generation portfolio |
• Transformed costs, USD 27/bbl break-even • Cash flow growth • Capturing the cycle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Financial | 2017 capex: ~ USD 11 bn1 • |
|---|---|
| • FCF positive @ USD 50/bbl in 2017 |
|
| capacity | Maintaining dividend, USD 0.22012 • |
Sharpened strategy
- High value, low carbon
- Continuous improvement
- Commitment to financial discipline
Illustration: Johan Sverdrup
2016 | Strong improvements in a low price environment
| Financial results |
• Adjusted earnings: USD 4.1 billion – reflecting low prices NOI1 • : USD 80 million – impacted by impairments • Solid cash flow |
|---|---|
| ---------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Operational performance |
• Strong production – above guiding • High production efficiency – increased well capacity • 93% reserve replacement ratio |
|---|---|
| ---------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Improvement programme |
• USD 3.2 billion in annual efficiency gains for next generation portfolio2 • Average BE @ USD 27/bbl • Organic capex reduced by USD 3 billion to 10.1 |
|
|---|---|---|
| -------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -- |
1 Net operating income
2 Statoil- and partner-operated projects, sanctioned since 2015 or planned for sanction, with start-up by 2022. Volume weighted.
4Q16 | Strong operational progress - high expensed exploration
Adjusted earnings:
| Group1 | D&P Norway | D&P International | MMP |
|---|---|---|---|
| • Higher liquids prices, lower European gas prices • High tax rate • Strong cash flow |
• Strong operational performance • Highest production since 2012 • Lowest OPEX in a decade |
• Expensed exploration wells • Extensive turnaround activity • High value growth US offshore |
• Strong gas marketing • Good trading results • Turnaround at Mongstad |
| USD mill Pre tax After tax |
Pre tax After tax |
Pre tax After tax |
Pre tax After tax |
| 1,664 (40) 4Q16 |
1,972 552 |
(681) (708) |
514 275 |
| 1,778 185 4Q15 |
2,008 630 |
(674) (720) |
423 260 |
1 Includes segments; D&P Norway, D&P International, MMP and Other.
2016 | Strong production
- High production efficiency
- Increased well capacity, ramp-up and start-up of new fields
- High turnaround activity
- Deferred NCS gas to periods with higher prices
2016 | Adding reserves from robust assets
- Reserve replacement ratio
- 93% total
- 87% organic
- 90% organic three-year average
- 48/52 split oil and gas reserves - Around 75% of the reserves at NCS
- Resources 55% outside Norway, 78% OECD
2016 | Solid cash flow in low price environment
- USD 900 million cash flow positive in 4Q161
- Strict capital prioritisation and efficiency
- − Reduced capex by USD 3 billion compared to initial guiding
- Net debt ratio 35.6%
- − 4Q16 influenced by acquisition of BM-S-8, currency, impairments and working capital
2 Income before tax (2,557) + Non-cash adjustments (7,334). 19
3 Cash flow to investments includes financial investment with cash impact of 541 for the initial 11.93% in Lundin Petroleum.
2016 | Delivering above ambition
1 Adjusted for currency effects.
2 Production wells.
4 Share of realised improvement effect.
London, 7 February 2017 Hans Jakob Hegge – Executive Vice President and CFO
From programme to culture
1 Production wells
22
- 2 NCS production efficiency
- 3 Annual continuous improvement from 2017
4 Realisation of estimated facility effects compared to 2013 baseline
Investing in next generation portfolio
1 Operated and non-operated projects, sanctioned since 2015 or planned for sanction, with start-up by 2022. Volume weighted.
2 Time of accumulated positive cash flow after tax.
23
3 Internal rate of return at time of sanctioning. Capex weighted.
4 Total non-sanctioned portfolio (operated and non-operated).
Delivering high value production growth
- * Indicative plateau production from planned start-ups – Statoil equity share (mboe/d), not applicable for sum of production per year
1 Compound annual growth rate.
2 Rebased 2016 of 1,958 mboe/d, adjusted for the KKD transaction.
24 3 TVEX: Tahiti vertical expansion.
Strong cash generation – high value reinvestment
1 For illustrative purposes; assumes 40% out-take rate for the remaining scrip programme period.
2 In the price scenarios, the following real prices have been assumed (Brent Blend USD per barrel / NBP USD per million Btu): 50/5.5, 70/6.5 and 90/8.5
25 3 Cash flow from operations.
Sustainable value creation from financial discipline
26
| Period | Outlook | |
|---|---|---|
| Organic capex | 2017 | USD ~11 billion1 |
| Production | 2016-2017 2016-2020 |
~4-5% organic production growth ~3% organic CAGR |
| Exploration | 2017 | USD ~1.5 billion |
| Efficiency improvements |
2017 | USD 1 billion |
Supplementary Information
Investing for profitable growth
Investment profile 2017-18
- 55% on the NCS
- 65% in operated assets
- 50% in new assets
- 90% upstream related
Sensitivities1– indicative effects on 2017 results
1 The sensitivity analysis shows the estimated 12 months effect of change in parameters. The change in parameters do not have the same probability.