AI assistant
Equinor — Investor Presentation 2015
Feb 4, 2016
3597_rns_2016-02-04_4d19adfc-9eb3-4516-be9d-5fd168973f49.pdf
Investor Presentation
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Resetting costs – capturing opportunities
London, 4 February 2016 Eldar Sætre, President and CEO
Safety first
Serious incident frequency
Serious incidents per million work-hours
Delivering on promises
Efficiency step up efficiency programme to USD 1.7 billion in 2016 "
Capex our investment programme for 2015 is reduced by USD 2 billion "
Production increase production by around 2% annually from 2014 to 2016 "
Distribution Dividend maintained in 2015 commitment to competitive capital distribution "
Promised Delivered
Delivered USD 1.9 billion in 2015
Reduced by more than USD 5 billion
Organic production growth of 6% in 2015
Industry responding to market forces
The cyclical nature of oil
Brent, USD per barrel
Rebalancing of markets
Million barrels per day
Production postponed
Pre-FID, million barrels per day
Firm strategy to capture value in the upturn
Faster and deeper cost reductions
- Efficiency improvements and market effects
- Strict financial discipline
Preparing to invest in nextgeneration portfolio
- Radically improved break-evens
- Maintaining dividend, introducing scrip option
Capturing the upturn in oil and gas prices
- Sustained efficiency gains
- Significant new volumes 2018-2022
Measures to improve cash flow
Improved regularity1)
12%
Unplanned losses as percent of production
10%
Stepping up efficiency
USD billion
Significant capex flexibility
USD billion
Capturing value from next-generation portfolio
Optimised portfolio
Operated non-sanctioned projects starting up by 2022, weighted by volume
Production potential to 2022
Production from non-sanctioned1) projects2) , mboe/d
Commitment to shareholders
4Q dividend maintained at USD 0.2201 per share 1)
Scrip dividend to be proposed to the AGM
- Two-year window from 4Q 2015
- Discount of 5% for 4Q 2015
- Norwegian government support for the scrip dividend 2)
- State ownership remains at 67%
Option to invest in a company with a high-quality portfolio
Strengthening flexibility to invest in high-value projects
Providing energy for a low-carbon future
Carbon-efficient oil and gas producer
CO2 intensity (kg CO2/boe)
Gradually building a new energy business
- Leveraging core competence
- Key focus on offshore wind industrial approach
- Exploring other energy sources
- Established New Energy Solutions (NES)
Resetting costs – capturing opportunities
Faster and deeper cost reductions
Preparing to invest in next-generation portfolio 2
Capturing the upturn in oil and gas prices 3
1
4th Quarter and Full Year 2015
London, 4 February 2016 Hans Jakob Hegge, Executive Vice President and CFO
2015 | Continued operational progress
| Earnings | Adjusted earnings of NOK 77.0 billion, negatively impacted by prices |
|---|---|
| Production | 6% YoY organic growth, driven by ramp-ups, efficiency and gas optimisation |
| Costs | Adjusted opex and SG&A down 13% YoY1), continued downward trend |
| Organic capex | USD 14.7 billion |
| Reserves | 88% organic RRR |
| Resources | 265 million boe added from exploration |
| Projects | Sanctioning of Johan Sverdrup. Material improvement in opportunity set |
| Dividend | 2Q, 3Q & 4Q2) NOK 1.80 per share for 1Q, USD 0.2201 per share for each of |
Financial results impacted by lower prices
Fourth quarter 2015
NOK billion
Reduced costs across the business
and SG&A per boe
up of new fields
• Strong operational performance with production efficiency >90%
• 17% reduction in adjusted opex
• DD&A per boe up 1% due to ramp
D&P Norway D&P International MMP
- Low prices lead to negative adjusted earnings
- Growing liquids production
- 22% reduction in adjusted opex and SG&A per boe in USD
-
DD&A per boe reduced by 15% in USD1)
-
Solid deliveries across the business
- Lower earnings in 4Q compared to very strong results in previous quarters
- Low tax rate on adjusted earnings
| Adj. earnings, NOK billion 4Q'15 4Q'14 |
Pre tax 17.1 24.2 |
After tax 5.4 6.8 |
Pre tax (5.7) (2.8) |
After tax (6.1) (5.0) |
Pre tax 3.6 5.1 |
After tax 2.2 2.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2015 | 69.4 | 21.6 | (12.2) | (15.0) | 21.8 | 14.1 |
| FY2014 | 105.5 | 29.1 | 13.9 | 2.6 | 17.8 | 8.1 |
Strong production growth
- 6% organic growth YoY
- Sustained strong regularity on the NCS
- Optimising gas offtake on the NCS
- Growing international liquids production
Equity production
mboe/d
Resilient cash flow at materially lower prices
NOK billion
- Tax paid partly reflecting 2014 results
- Proceeds from valueenhancing transactions
- Organic investments reduced due to efficiency and prioritisation
- Net debt to capital employed at year-end of 27%
Johan Sverdrup adds to new reserves
- 88% organic RRR, 55% total RRR
- 5% increase in liquid reserves
- 110% three-year average organic RRR
- Johan Sverdrup main contributor for new proved reserves
- Negative impact from lower commodity prices on proved reserves
Resetting costs - capturing opportunities
London, 4 February 2016 Hans Jakob Hegge, Executive Vice President and CFO
Faster and deeper cost reductions
We have delivered ahead of time…
Percent improvement on selected activities
...and continue to raise the bar
USD billion
Turning efficiency improvement into money
Unit production costs - ahead of peers
USD per barrel
Adjusted upstream operating cost and SG&A
Percentage improvement – per barrel in underlying currency
Further actions
- Renegotiating supplier contracts
- Implementing new actions to reduce upstream opex
- Stepping up organisational efficiency
Cost competitive new production
- Johan Sverdrup ~30 NOK/boe1)
- Aasta Hansteen ~30 NOK/boe1)
Peer group: Anadarko, BG, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, Petrobras, Repsol, Shell and Total. Based on figures sourced from IHS Herold financial database. Benchmark on average UPC in USD for the years 2012-2014.
Value over volume – flexible production growth
Equity production
Very strong production growth in 2015
- Impact future growth rates
- Utilised high prices
Value over volume approach
Several major start-ups in 2018/19
Radical change in our project portfolio
Non-sanctioned projects 2013 2016
Break-even oil price, USD/bbl 120
Improved break-even on operated portfolio
Assets starting up by 2022, USD/bbl, weighted by volume
Maintaining flexibility in an improved portfolio
Net cash flow neutral at \$60/bbl in 2017 and \$50/bbl in 2018, excluding impact of scrip programme
Well positioned to adapt to macro volatility USD billion
Net debt to capital employed1)
1) For illustrative purposes. Assumes 40% outtake rate for two-year scrip program 4Q15-3Q17
Note: The various scenarios for CFFO also imply different operational assumptions. The higher price scenarios assume lower utilisation of capex flexibility while the lower price scenarios assume larger utilisation of capex flexibility.
Firm strategy to capture value in the upturn
Faster and deeper cost reductions
● Step up efficiency target to USD 2.5 billion in 2016
Preparing to invest in nextgeneration portfolio
- Capex 2016: USD ~13 billion
- Average break-even of new portfolio at USD 41 per barrel
Capturing the upturn in oil and gas prices
- Organic growth: ~1% CAGR 2014-17 ~2-4% CAGR 2017-19
- Exploration 2016: USD ~2 billion
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. In some cases, we use words such as "ambition", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "focus", "likely", "may", "outlook", "plan", "strategy", "will", "guidance" and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, among others, statements regarding future financial position, results of operations and cash flows; changes in the fair value of derivatives; future financial ratios and information; future financial or operational portfolio or performance; future market position and conditions; business strategy; growth strategy; future impact of accounting policy judgments; sales, trading and market strategies; research and development initiatives and strategy; projections and future impact related to efficiency programs, market outlook and future economic projections and assumptions; competitive position; projected regularity and performance levels; expectations related to our recent transactions and projects, completion and results of acquisitions, disposals and other contractual arrangements; reserve information; future margins; projected returns; future levels, timing or development of capacity, reserves or resources; future decline of mature fields; planned maintenance (and the effects thereof); oil and gas production forecasts and reporting; domestic and international growth, expectations and development of production, projects, pipelines or resources; estimates related to production and development levels and dates; operational expectations, estimates, schedules and costs; exploration and development activities, plans and expectations; projections and expectations for upstream and downstream activities; oil, gas, alternative fuel and energy prices; oil, gas, alternative fuel and energy supply and demand; natural gas contract prices; timing of gas off-take; technological innovation, implementation, position and expectations; projected operational costs or savings; projected unit of production cost; our ability to create or improve value; future sources of financing; exploration and project development expenditure; effectiveness of our internal policies and plans; our ability to manage our risk exposure; our liquidity levels and management; estimated or future liabilities, obligations or expenses and how such liabilities, obligations and expenses are structured; expected impact of currency and interest rate fluctuations; expectations related to contractual or financial counterparties; capital expenditure estimates and expectations; projected outcome, objectives of management for future operations; impact of PSA effects; projected impact or timing of administrative or governmental rules, standards, decisions, standards or laws (including taxation laws); estimated costs of removal and abandonment; estimated lease payments, gas transport commitments and future impact of legal proceedings are forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements for many reasons.
These forward-looking statements reflect current views about future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing; price and availability of alternative fuels; currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations; the political and economic policies of Norway and other oil-producing countries; EU directives; general economic conditions; political and social stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; the sovereign debt situation in Europe; global political events and actions, including war, terrorism and sanctions; security breaches; situation in Ukraine; changes or uncertainty in or noncompliance with laws and governmental regulations; the timing of bringing new fields on stream; an inability to exploit growth or investment opportunities; material differences from reserves estimates; unsuccessful drilling; an inability to find and develop reserves; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems; adverse changes in tax regimes; the development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; operational problems; operator error; inadequate insurance coverage; the lack of necessary transportation infrastructure when a field is in a remote location and other transportation problems; the actions of competitors; the actions of field partners; the actions of governments (including the Norwegian state as majority shareholder); counterparty defaults; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, climate change, and other changes to business conditions; an inability to attract and retain personnel; relevant governmental approvals; industrial actions by workers and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report. Additional information, including information on factors that may affect Statoil's business, is contained in Statoil's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2014, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found on Statoil's website at www.statoil.com.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that our future results, level of activity, performance or achievements will meet these expectations. Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the forward-looking statements. Unless we are required by law to update these statements, we will not necessarily update any of these statements after the date of this report, either to make them conform to actual results or changes in our expectations.
Investor Relations in Statoil
Main Desk: +47 22 97 20 42
E-mail: [email protected]
Investor Relations Europe
| Peter Hutton | Senior Vice President | [email protected] | +44 788 191 8792 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Valdresbråten | IR Officer | [email protected] | +47 40 28 17 89 | ||||
| Erik Gonder | IR Officer | [email protected] | +47 99 56 26 11 | ||||
| Gudmund Hartveit | IR Officer | [email protected] | +47 97 15 95 36 | ||||
| Anca Jalba | IR Officer | [email protected] | +47 41 07 79 88 | ||||
| Marius Javier Sandnes | Senior Consultant | [email protected] | +47 90 15 50 93 | ||||
| Sunniva Furnes | Senior Consultant | [email protected] | +47 97 01 50 06 | ||||
| Investor Relations USA & Canada | |||||||
| Morten Sven Johannessen | Vice President | [email protected] | +1 203 570 2524 | ||||
| Ieva Ozola |
IR Officer | [email protected] | +1 713 485 2682 |
Investing for profitable growth
Investment profile 2016-17
- 55% in NCS
- 65% in operated assets
- 50% in new assets
- 90% upstream related
Sensitivities1) - Indicative effects on 2016 results
The sensitivity analysis shows the estimated 12 months effect of changes in parameters 1) The sensitivity analysis shows the estimated 12 months effect of change in parameters. The change in parameters do not have the same probability.
Long-term debt maturity profile
Redemption profile 31.12.2015