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Eni — Investor Presentation 2018
Mar 16, 2018
4348_rns_2018-03-16_f44d4c21-d3bc-46d6-a681-2b04f3e58631.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Disclaimer
This document contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future results of Eni that are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industries in which Eni operates and the beliefs and assumptions of the management of Eni. In addition, Eni's management may make forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, representatives of the media and others. In particular, among other statements, certain statements with regard to management objectives, trends in results of operations, margins, costs, return on capital, risk management and competition are forward looking in nature. Words such as 'expects', 'anticipates', 'targets', 'goals', 'projects', 'intends', 'plans', 'believes', 'seeks', 'estimates', variations of such words, and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. Therefore, Eni's actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Eni's Annual Reports on Form 20-F filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") under the section entitled "Risk factors" and in other sections. These factors include but are not limited to:
Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals;
- Strong competition worldwide to supply energy to the industrial, commercial and residential energy markets;
- Safety, security, environmental and other operational risks, and the costs and risks associated with the requirement to comply with related regulation, including regulation on GHG emissions;
- Risks associated with the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, including the risk that exploration efforts may be unsuccessful and the operational risks associated with development projects;
- Uncertainties in the estimates of natural gas reserves;
- The time and expense required to develop reserves;
- Material disruptions arising from political, social and economic instability, particularly in light of the areas in which Eni operates;
- Risks associated with the trading environment, competition, and demand and supply dynamics in the natural gas market, including the impact under Eni take-or-pay long-term gas supply contracts;
- Laws and regulations related to climate change;
- Risks related to legal proceedings and compliance with anti-corruption legislation;
- Risks arising from potential future acquisitions; and
- Exposure to exchange rate, interest rate and credit risks.
Any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Eni speak only as of the date they are made. Eni does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in Eni's expectations with regard thereto or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. The reader should, however, consult any further disclosures Eni may make in documents it files with or furnishes to the SEC and Consob.
Eni 2014-17 strategy
UPSTREAM enhancement
MID-DOWNSTREAM restructuring
- Structurally underlying positive Long-term contracts alignment to market level
-
Take or Pay recovery Cost reduction
-
Production efficiency Logistics rationalization 2 sites converted to bio- plants
- Halved refining breakeven
6
Consolidation of industrial footprint Focus on differentiated products International development
FINANCIAL discipline
GEARING DIVIDEND CASH NEUTRALITY* | \$/bbl
Eni strategic evolution
BUSINESS INTEGRATION along the value chain
EFFICIENCY
DIGITALIZATION &
Upstream key targets in the 4YP
United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi deals
FARM-IN: 5% Lower Zakum 10% Umm Shaif/Nasr NASR UMM SHAIF LOWER ZAKUM DIVERSIFYING OUR PORTFOLIO… …STRENGTHENING ZOHR JV
1 BLN BOE 3P/3C equity of which >300 Mln Boe P1
FARM OUT 10% to Mubadala
ZOHR JV 50% Eni (operator) 30% Rosneft 10% BP 10% Mubadala
A global range of exploration opportunities
2 BILLION BOE EQUITY 4YP EXPLORATION TARGET
Ramp-ups and start-ups driving growth
Key projects
Zohr 50% WI
44% WI
2018: 185 kboed Plateau: 545 kboed @2021
Mexico Area 1 100% WI
Start up: 1H 2019 Progress: under FID Plateau: 90 kboed @2022
2018: 210 kboed Progress: ph.3: under FID Plateau: 210 kboed @2018
Start up: 2H 2020 Progress: under FID Plateau: 70 kboed @2023
Nenè - Marine XII 65% WI 2018: 35 kboed
Progress: ph. 2a: 82% Plateau: 54 kboed @ 2021
Coral
25% WI
Start up: 1H 2022 Progress: 10% Plateau: 100 kboed @ 2023
OCTP Start up: 1H 2018 (gas)
Progress: 91 % Plateau: 110 kboed @ 2020
Johan Castberg 30% WI
Start up: 2H 2022 Progress: <5% Plateau: 205 kboed @2024
* All production levels reported in the slide are gross values (100%)
Value expansion of production growth
The rise of upstream cash flow
FULL COVERAGE OF DIVIDEND WITH UPSTREAM FCF
Mid-downstream key targets
Gas & Power - bigger and stronger
FCF 2018-21
€ 2.4 bln
Gas & LNG Marketing and Power
Retail
Integration with upstream
- Focus on Asia and new markets
- 2025 contracted volumes: 14 MTPA
- Redefining relationships with key gas suppliers
- Maximizing returns from power assets in Italy
- 2021 clients: 11 mln (+25% vs 2017)
- Focus on high-growth customer-
tailored services
A top player in the LNG market
LNG contracted volumes 12 MTPA @ 2021
R&M – leaner and greener
FCF 2018-21
€ 2.1 bln
- Deep conversion proprietary technology licensing
- Asset optimization
- Venice and Gela plants onstream
- Ecofining proprietary technology
- 2021: 1 Mton/y green production
-
Feedstock diversification and "circular" economy
-
Focus on wholesale
- Digital Transformation and Sustainable Mobility
- Stable retail market share
Versalis – an international player
FCF 2018-21
EBIT | € bln
~ € 300 mln
- Consolidation industrial footprint
- Strengthening international presence
- Business integration
- New products' development
- Focus on high margin products
-
Acquisitions/partnerships on new technologies
-
New industrial platforms from renewable sources
- "Circular economy" projects
New energy solutions
AN INTEGRATED MODEL
- Synergies with Eni assets and activities
- International expansion in Eni Countries
- Solar, Wind and Hybrid Technologies
- R&D Deployment
Capacity end year| GWp
Digital transformation
Digitalisation key targets 2018-2021
* Operated Assets
Carbon footprint reduction
Direct Emissions Upstream | tCO2eq / toe
GROSS OPERATED 2018-2021 Capex >€ 550 Mln
TARGETS @ 2025
| UPS UNITARY | -43% | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIRECT EMISSIONS | vs 2014 | |||
| ROUTINE GAS FLARING |
zero | |||
| FUGITIVE | -80% | |||
| EMISSIONS MtCH4 | vs 2014 |
A low carbon and resilient O&G portfolio
NEW PROJECTS RESILIENT EVEN IN LOW SCENARIOS
PORTFOLIO FOCUSED ON CONVENTIONAL RESOURCES
PROJECTS ROBUST EVEN AT IEA SDS*
* SDS: Sustainable Development Scenario
Our green businesses
VENEZIA - 2nd fase – ongoing
Green capacity up to 560 kton/y (from 2021)
2018: GELA green - refinery completion
Green capacity up to 720 kton/y
BIO-FUELS BIOBASED-CHEMICALS NEW ENERGY
P. Torres: JV integrated chemical complex from renewable
Total capacity bio-intermediates: 70 kton/y
- P. Marghera: innovative technology Vegetable Oils Metathesis
- Natural tyres from guayule: Partnership with for research and technology development on guayule
Progetto Italia
- Installed capacity by 2021: 220 MW
- Production capacity up to 0.4 TWh/y (from 2022)
Africa & Asia (development of Solar PV, Wind and Hybrid projects)
- Total installed capacity by 2021: 0.7 GW
- Production capacity up to 2.5 TWh/y (from 2023)
| 4YP Total investment | > € 1.8 BLN |
|---|---|
| 4YP Total CO saving* 2 |
28 Mton |
Core financial values
CAPEX Plan
Upstream: focus on projects under development
Anticipated payback
BREAKEVEN
Cash flow growth
Data @ 1.17 €/\$ exchange rate
Reducing cash neutrality
Enhancing our 2017-2020 targets
| 2017-2020 | 2017-2020 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| today | previous plan |
||
| Exploration discoveries | 2.6 bln boe |
2-3 bln boe |
|
| Production CAGR | >3% | 3% | |
| LNG sales by 2025 | 14 MTPA | 10 MTPA | |
| New projects breakeven | < \$ 30/bbl | \$ 30/bbl | |
| Business | |||
| Mid-Downstream CFFO | € 8.3 bln |
€ 7.9 bln |
|
| Capex | € 31.6 bln |
€ 31.4 bln |
|
| Organic free cash flow | € 17.4 bln |
€ 14.9 bln |
|
| Disposals | € 5.5 bln |
€ 5-7 bln |
|
| Financials |
All figures at the same scenario
Remuneration policy and cash allocation
Conclusions
DEEPER INTEGRATION
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE
ENHANCED RETURN TO SHAREHOLDERS
Assumptions and sensitivity
| 4YP Scenario | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent dated (\$/bl) | 60 | 65 | 70 | 72 | |||
| FX avg (\$/€) |
1.17 | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.25 | |||
| Std. Eni Refining Margin (\$/bl) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||
| NBP (\$/mmbtu) |
5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | |||
| PSV (€/kmc) |
188 | 178 | 171 | 175 | |||
| Sensitivity* | EBIT adj (€ |
mln) net adj |
(€ mln) |
FCF (€ mln) |
|||
| Brent (-1 \$/bl) |
-310 | -175 | -205 | ||||
| Std. Eni Refining Margin (-1 \$/bl) | -160 | -115 | -160 | ||||
| Exchange rate \$/€ (+0.05 \$/€) |
-310 | -120 | -200 |
* sensitivity 2018. Sensitivity is applicable for limited variations of prices
| Main start ups 2018-2021 |
Country | Op | Start-up | Equity peak in 4 YP |
Working | Liquids/Gas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kboed | Interest | |||||
| Zohr | Egypt | yes | Achieved 12/2017 |
200 | 50% | Gas |
| West Hub (Ochigufu) |
Angola | yes | Achieved 03/2018 |
<10 | 37% | Liquids |
| Wafa Compression |
Libya | yes | 1H18 | 25 | 50% | Liquids/Gas |
| OCTP Oil+Gas | Ghana | yes | Oil: 5/17 Gas:1H18 |
49 | 44% | Liquids/Gas |
| Bahr Essalam Ph. 2 |
Libya | yes | 1H18 | 45 | 50% | Liquids/Gas |
| Mexico Area 1 | Mexico | yes | 1H19 | 60 | 100% | Liquids |
| Baltim SW (Barakish) | Egypt | yes | 2H19 | 29 | 50% | Liquids/Gas |
| West Hub (Vandumbu) | Angola | yes | 2H19 | <10 | 37% | Liquids |
| Merakes (Jangkrik area) |
Indonesia | yes | 2H20 | 50 | 85% | Gas |
| Cassiopea | Italy | yes | 2H20 | 16 | 60% | Gas |
| Nenè phase 2B | Congo | yes | 2H20 | 14 | 65% | Liquids |
| Melehia deep phase 2 |
Egypt | yes | 2H21 | <10 | 100% | Liquids/Gas |
Reference TCFD dashboard
| Recommendation | ANNUAL REPORT | SUSTAINABILITY REPORT |
|---|---|---|
| GOVERNANCE Disclose the organization's governance around climate-related risks and opportunities. |
a Key elements |
a Disclosure |
| STRATEGY Disclose the actual and potential impacts of climate-related risks and opportunities on the organization's businesses, strategy, and financial planning where such information is material. |
a Key elements |
a Disclosure |
| RISK MANAGEMENT Disclose how the organization identifies, assesses, and manages climate-related risks. |
a Key elements |
a Disclosure |
| METRICS & TARGETS Disclose the metrics and targets used to assess and manage relevant climate-related risks and opportunities where such information is material. |
a Key elements |
a Disclosure |