Investor Presentation • Nov 18, 2015
Investor Presentation
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November, 18th 2015
| Opening remarks | Francesco Starace |
|---|---|
| Strategic update | Francesco Starace |
| Key financials | Alberto De Paoli |
| Summary | Francesco Starace |
| Renewable Energies | Francesco Venturini |
| Global Infrastructure & Networks | Livio Gallo |
| Global Generation | Enrico Viale |
| Global Trading | Claudio Machetti |
| Closing remarks | Francesco Starace |
| Q&A session |
Capacity: 1.0 GW
Capacity: 17.6 GW Networks: 0.32 mn km End users: 15.0 mn
Capacity: 0.1 GW
Capacity: 0.2 GW
End users: 61.2 mn Free customers: 22.3 mn Italy
Capacity: 30.8 GW Networks: 1.14 mn km End users: 31.6 mn Free customers: 9.9 mn
Capacity: 23.5 GW Networks: 0.32 mn km End users: 11.9 mn Free customers: 12.3 mn
Capacity: 14.2 GW Networks: 0.09 mn km End users: 2.7 mn Free customers: 0.1 mn
2 Countries of presence 1. Data as of 30 2 th September 2015
| Leading | Leading | Leading | Balanced |
|---|---|---|---|
| network | retail | renewable | generation |
| operator | business | operator | portfolio |
| 44% of Group EBITDA 61 mn end users 38 mn smart meters RAB2 40 €bn |
11% of Group EBITDA 56 mn power customers 6 mn gas customers |
12% of Group EBITDA 10.6 GW installed Hydro3 32% 16% Oil & Gas |
32% of Group EBITDA 78.9 GW installed Renewables 9% Nuclear 6% ~89.5 GW 18% CCGT 19% Coal |
Investor Relations
| What has changed | ||
|---|---|---|
| Demand | OECD: decoupling of GDP and electricity demand Non-OECD: increasing pro-capita consumption as main driver |
Lower global demand growth |
| Commodities | Significant overcapacity in oil and coal supply Gas price less correlated to oil in Europe |
Commodities prices in line with consensus Lower power prices in Italy & Spain |
| FX | Increasing pressure on emerging markets | Weaker currency exchange rates Chile, Colombia and Brazil devaluation |
| Efficiency | Growth | Simplification |
|---|---|---|
| Value drivers and efficiency |
Flexibility in capital allocation |
Reducing group complexity |
| Gross margin optimisation at global level |
Ability to adapt to evolving scenario |
Enhanced integration among business lines |
| Efficiency levers larger than expected |
Wide range of options across technologies and countries |
Streamlining corporate structure |
Total fixed costs in nominal terms (net of capitalizations). Adjusted figure net of accruals. Impact from acquisitions is not included
Of which CPI +0.6 €bn and FX -0.4 €bn 3. In nominal terms 4. 2014 figure restated for delta perimeter
Investor Relations
Decreasing business risk profile: no merchant exposure
Increasing optionality based on project size and diversification Average size of 150 MW across 7 countries
Significant flexibility in total spending 15 projects of 160 €mn on average
Average time to EBITDA <2 years and high level of self financing 11 projects approved with COD in 2016-17
Pursuing new business opportunities
Progress in 2015
All new projects approved backed by long term PPAs
Leveraging on our more advanced infrastructure base to provide enhanced services
Investor Relations
Inclusive of 1.3 €bn optional growth capex in renewables
Mainly North America and new countries (Asia and Africa)
| What has changed | +2.7 | |
|---|---|---|
| Smart investment in mature and resilient markets |
Acceleration of digital meters roll-out in Italy | +1.7 |
| New markets and higher focus on solar | +1.3 GW auctions in Brazil and South Africa +0.8 GW in US, Latam and new countries |
+2.01 |
| Revision of conventional generation pipeline |
Shorter time to EBITDA Lower capex in Latam |
-1.0 |
March "15 Plan
| EGP integration | Upgrade medium/long-term growth prospects First step in the structural change of the generation portfolio Gaining synergies and further flexibility |
|---|---|
| Latam | Alignment with group strategy based on country/business |
| restructuring | Maximise efficiencies and simplify governance |
Investor Relations
Limit to withdrawal right: Enersis Americas 6.73%, Endesa Americas 7.72%
Exercise price of withdrawal right equal to the weighted average price of the 60 trading days preceding the 30th trading day prior to the EGM; except Chilectra which will be at book value
Dissenting/absent shareholders may exercise their withdrawal rights up to 30 days after the EGM and sell their shares to the Company
Investor Relations
Proposed dividend policy subject to completion of reorganisation
| Strategic fit | Decreasing business risk profile Capital recycling to drive higher returns Optimising economic interests across portfolio |
|---|---|
| Flexibility | Crystallising value through disposals Providing additional resources to fund growth |
CFO Alberto De Paoli November, 18th 2015
| Efficiency | Growth | Simplification |
|---|---|---|
| Value drivers and efficiency |
Flexibility in capital allocation |
Reducing group complexity |
| Optimisation of power and gas margin |
Growth from additional capex | |
| Acceleration on opex savings |
Active portfolio management | EGP integration |
| Procurement and logistics | New businesses | |
| Retail business | Latam restructuring |
Investor Relations
| March "15 Plan1 What has changed vs |
||
|---|---|---|
| Demand | Lower global demand growth Lower GDP growth in Latam |
Italy -2.1%; Spain -1.9% Brazil -13%; Peru -9% |
| Commodities & prices |
Commodities prices in line with consensus | Coal -15%; Brent -9%; Gas -4% Lower power prices: Italy and Spain -6% |
| FX | Weaker currency exchange rates | Devaluation of Latam currencies EUR/BRL 26%; EUR/COP 17%; EUR/CLP 7% |
Net of perimeter effect
Total fixed costs in nominal terms (net of capitalizations). Adjusted figure net of accruals. Impact from acquisitions is not included
Cash neutral and 2% Group net income accretion over the plan period
| EBITDA at regime |
NPV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Acceleration of growth with +1.3 €bn of optional capex and +0.9 GW installed in 2019 |
150 €mn | 0.25 €bn | |
| Growth Increasing flexibility in active portfolio management |
0.1 €bn | ||
| Increasing synergies with networks, conventional generation and retail | 30 €mn | 0.4 €bn | |
| Integration | Optimising Group financial resources |
To be |
implemented post |
| Lowering merchant exposure | Integration |
Including Holding and Services
Including retail in Iberia
Investor Relations
Actions completed Further actions
Liability management bond exchange (~1.5 €bn)
Renegotiation of credit lines (11.6 €bn) and guarantees (1.1 €bn)
Pre-hedge operations 2017-19 (~6 €bn)
Total annual savings 300 €mn
Further repayment of debt at maturity with excess cash 4 €bn in 2016
Additional pre-hedge operations up to ~ 50% of total refinancing needs 2017-20 (2€bn)
Improvement of financial flexibility Increasing short term funding instruments
Further liability and other managerial actions
Target of ca. 0.5 €bn reduction in financial expenses on debt by 2019
Net financial expenses on debt (€bn)
Net financial exp.
~54% ~46% ~19% ~20% ~20% ~27% ~7% ~7% 2014 2019 Gross debt breakdown Emerging markets2 Banks and other Bonds1 Hybrid bonds
| Cost of gross debt |
2014 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Hybrid bonds | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| Emerging markets2 | 6.7% | 7.9% |
| Banks and other | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Bonds1 | 5.4% | 3.9% |
| Average cost of debt | 5.1% | 4.9% |
Accruals, releases, utilizations of provisions in EBITDA (i.e. personnel related and risks and charges). Inclusive of bad debt provision accruals equal to 2.3 €bn
Including maintenance capex from acquisitions 3. Net of funds from active portfolio management worth ~2.5 €bn
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | CAGR (%) 2015-19 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring EBITDA (€bn) |
15.0 | 14.7 | 15.5 | ~+4% |
| Net ordinary income (€bn) |
3.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | ~+10% |
| Minimun DPS |
0.16 €/sh | 0.18 €/sh | ~+17% | |
| Pay-out | 50% | 55% | 60% | +7% |
| FFO/Net Debt | 23% | 23% | 26% | ~+6% |
Leveraging on flexibility and accelerating efficiency
Increased investments in stable return activities
Major steps in Group simplification
Focus on attractive shareholders return
Enel leads the energy transition
Francesco Venturini November, 18th 2015
Transmission and distribution
Cost competitiveness
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2
3
4
5
Simplicity in installation and operation
Scalability and modular approach
Energy independence and reduction of price volatility
Environmental sustainability
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4
Lost production factor O&M costs/MW1 1.0% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.7% 1.9% 2.2% 3.3% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% Hydro Geo Wind Solar 50 70 85 80 65 70 90 80 73 72 90 84 100 100 100 100 Hydro Geo Wind Solar Historical 2015 preclosing Old 2019 target New 2019 target
Projects in execution & contracted
Planned additional capacity with option (GW) Optional capex by area
| Pipeline by | Pipeline by | Pipeline by |
|---|---|---|
| technology | COD | area |
| Solar 23% Hydro 21 GW 2% Geo 3% 72% Wind |
2018 >2018 50% 13% 2016 5% 21 GW 2017 32% |
North America 16% Rest of 21 GW World 21% 50% Latin America Europe 13% |
Investor Relations
At the forefront of innovative processes, products and business solutions
Growth as a key factor in Latin America, North America and new countries
Efficiency mitigating costs associated with additional capacity and structure
Planned phasing out of incentives in Europe and the US
Growth associated to consolidation actions compensating dilution from disposals
1.3 mn end users 7 TWh Energy distributed Interruption: 375 min/y
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2
Operational excellence and best practice sharing
Synergies in processes and systems
Network digitalisation
Enabling new market services
Business development and acquisition
67
Net of perimeter effect
Total fixed costs in nominal terms (net of capitalizations). Adjusted figure net of accruals. Impact from acquisitions is not included
Investor Relations
Synergies with EGP
Investor Relations
Cloud application
Medium and low voltage upgrade
Distribution and transmission lines
Automation and Smart Metering
Up to 32 mn customers
Target 12 mn customers
Up to 2.6 mn customers
Smart Grids and E-mobility Projects Remote Control and Automation Quality of Service
The most advanced remote metering management system
2015-2019 EBITDA (€bn)
FY 2015 Growth Efficiency Scenario Regulatory FY 2019 1
Italy: 1.5% CAGR 2016-19 post regulatory review and -12% opex/end user
Iberia: 1.6% CAGR 2015-19 -12% opex/end user
Latam: +5.4% CAGR 2015-19 +2 mn end users and -22% opex/end user
Enrico Viale November, 18th 2015
| Colombia | El Quimbo - 400 MW hydro plant - 2.2 TWh expected yearly production 30% of revenues secured through long term capacity payment Strong commitment with local communities |
|
|---|---|---|
| Italy Future-E |
7.9 GW decommissioned since 2013 innovative reutilization projects continuous dialogue with all stakeholders |
|
| Iberia | excellent performance of Spanish generation fleet flexibilization activities performed in the CCGT fleet coal plants environmental refurbishment |
Hydro
CCGT Nuke
Coal
Oil&Gas
Net of perimeter effect
Total fixed costs in nominal terms (net of capitalizations). Adjusted figure net of accruals. Impact from acquisitions is not included
57.2 49.3 2014 2019 13.3 10.0 2014 2019 Opex1 (k€/MW) 43.9 39.3 2014 2019 -10% -2% of O&M best practices and alignment to benchmark -11% of personnel cost optimization -7% March "15 Plan -2% of lean organization and company structure Cash Cost Maintenance Capex (k€/MW) 1 (k€/MW) -11% -21% -14% -25%
0.4 GW of additional capacity 82% under PPA/regulated regime
0.4 GW under construction in 2019
Capex intensity reduction from 3 €mn/MW to 1.6 €mn/MW
Shorter average time to EBITDA from 4.4 years to 3.2 years
Growth EBITDA in 2019 of 150 €mn Spread over WACC +200 bps
Growth capex by geography
excluding new coal projects
Abandoned large environmentally unfriendly projects
Dynamic shift from Latam to new countries
Origination focused on gas and hydro technologies
Italy: operational efficiency programs
Iberia: gross margin optimization and operational efficiency
Latam: capacity additions and higher hydraulicity
Claudio Machetti
November, 18th 2015
Italy Spain
Full exploitation of energy and ancillary services opportunities
Full leverage of experience and expertise of developed markets
We are a material global power and commodities business
Integration lowers our estimated profit at risk by -35%
Gas contract reshaping and restructuring will be a significant driver
We intend to fully exploit energy and ancillary services opportunities
Cumulative 2016-19 contribution on gross margin equal to 1.6-1.7 €bn
November, 18th 2015
Successful delivery of March 2015 Plan despite worsened scenario
Acceleration on efficiencies identified
Flexibility achieved to raise growth investments in low-risk activities
Simplification a key strategic pillar
Compelling plan for improved returns for shareholders
November, 18th 2015
The strategic plan embeds our commitments to United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
Investor Relations
• Climate change : Carbon neutrality by 2050
Enel Group Investor Relations
Enel Group Investor Relations 36.3
21.4
2015-19
14.9
Enel Group Investor Relations
Strategic update annexes
Enel Group Investor Relations
120 1. Cash Flow generation from current available assets (not including Acquisition Plan)
November, 18th 2015
Enel Group Investor Relations
| 9M15 Reported | 9M14 Reported Restated1 |
% vs | 9M15 Ordinary2 |
9M14 Ordinary2 Restated1 |
% vs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 12,161 | 11,593 | +4.9 | 11,888 | 11,461 | +3.7 |
| D&A | (5,853) | (4,453) | (4,248) | (4,407) | ||
| EBIT | 6,308 | 7,140 | -11.7 | 7,640 | 7,054 | +8.3 |
| Net financial charges | (1,998) | (2,504) | (1,998) | (2,504) | ||
| Net income from equity investments using equity method |
36 | 49 | 36 | 49 | ||
| EBT | 4,346 | 4,685 | -7.2 | 5,678 | 4,599 | +23.5 |
| Income tax | (1,424) | (2,070) | (1,745) | (2,071) | ||
| Net income3 | 2,922 | 2,615 | 3,933 | 2,528 | ||
| Minorities | (833) | (668) | (1,292) | (668) | ||
| Group net income | 2,089 | 1,947 | 7.3 | 2,641 | 1,860 | +42.0 |
2014 restated due to the application of IFRS 21
Continuing operations & including third parties. Excluding capital gains, losses and one-off items
Excluding release of nuclear provision in Slokenske Elektrarne
Release of nuclear provision in Slokenske Elektrarne
2,358 2,089 +781 -229 2,641 -283 Reported Group net income Impairment on net income Extraordinary items Group net ordinary income Release of provisions Pro-forma Group net ordinary income Change YoY +7% 9M14 (€mn) 1,947 1,860 +42% +26 -113 1 2 3 1,860 +27% SE 273 Enel Russia 417 EGP Romania 91
| Global Generation & Trading |
Global Infrastructure & Networks |
Renewables | Retail | Services & Other |
Enel Group Investor Relations TOT |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M15 | 9M14 | 9M15 | 9M14 | 9M15 | 9M14 | 9M15 | 9M14 | 9M15 | 9M14 | 9M15 | |
| Italy | 747 | 1,026 | 2,726 | 3,047 | - | - | 971 | 791 | 114 | 71 | 4,558 |
| Iberia | 986 | 280 | 1,362 | 1,337 | - | - | 426 | 883 | 23 | -5 | 2,797 |
| Latam | 1,312 | 1,236 | 1,033 | 838 | - | - | - | - | -53 | -48 | 2,292 |
| -Argentina | 77 | 64 | 97 | -117 | - | - | - | - | - | -1 | 174 |
| -Brazil | 112 | 133 | 298 | 341 | - | - | - | - | -24 | -8 | 386 |
| -Chile | 448 | 319 | 187 | 164 | - | - | - | - | -29 | -39 | 606 |
| -Colombia | 457 | 522 | 310 | 336 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 767 |
| -Peru | 218 | 198 | 141 | 114 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 359 |
| East Europe | 911 | 581 | 200 | 186 | - | - | 19 | 18 | -5 | -2 | 1,125 |
| -Romania | - | 5 | 200 | 186 | - | - | 19 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 221 |
| -Russia | 120 | 279 | - | - | - | - | - | - | -1 | - | 119 |
| -Slovakia | 788 | 296 | - | - | - | - | 1 | 3 | - | - | 789 |
| -Other | 3 | 1 | - | - | - | - | -1 | -19 | -6 | -4 | -4 |
| Renewables | - | - | - | - | 1,470 | 1,312 | - | - | - | - | 1,470 |
| Other | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -81 | 42 | -81 |
| TOT | 3,956 | 3,123 | 5,321 | 5,408 | 1,470 | 1,312 | 1,416 | 1,692 | -2 | 58 | 12,161 128 |
Accruals, releases, utilizations of provisions in EBITDA (i.e. personnel related and risks and charges). It includes bad debt provision accruals equal to 0.51 €bn 129
Funds from operations after working capital change 3. Including SE that recorded a negative net free cash flow for -311 €mn
Gross capex. Reclassified as per new strategic plan criteria
Total fixed costs in nominal terms (net of capitalizations). Reclassified as per new strategic plan criteria
Tel. +39 06 8305 7975
Visit our website at:
www.enel.com (Investor Relations)
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's management's current views with respect to future events and financial and operational performance of the Company and its subsidiaries. These forwardlooking statements are based on Enel S.p.A.'s ("Enel") current expectations and projections about future events. Because these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, actual future results or performance may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements due to any number of different factors, many of which are beyond the ability of Enel to control or estimate precisely, including changes in the regulatory environment, future market developments, fluctuations in the price and availability of fuel and other risks. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements contained herein, which are made only as of the date of this presentation. Enel does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. The information contained in this presentation does not purport to be comprehensive and has not been independently verified by any independent third party.
This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. This presentation does not contain an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities issued by Enel or any of its subsidiaries.
The securities referred to herein have not been registered and will not be registered in the United States under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and may not be offered or sold in the United States or to "US Persons" unless such securities are registered under the Securities Act, or an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act is available. The Company has no intention to make any offer in the Unites States, Australia, Canada or Japan or any other jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would require the approval of local authorities or otherwise be unlawful.
Pursuant to Article 154-BIS, par. 2, of the Unified Financial Act of February 24, 1998, the executive in charge of preparing the corporate accounting documents at Enel, Alberto De Paoli, declares that the accounting information contained herein correspond to document results, books and accounting records.
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