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Enefit Green

Investor Presentation Feb 29, 2024

2216_ip_2024-02-29_609c90ad-3f30-4d49-a536-8c32ca6307bf.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Unaudited interim report Q4 and 12 months 2023

Results are presented by:

Aavo Kärmas Chief Executive Officer

Veiko Räim Chief Financial Officer

  • Largest wind energy producer in Baltic countries
  • 500+ MW of operating power generation
  • 700+ MW of wind and solar farms under construction
  • Development portfolio of ~ 4,900 MW
  • 154 employees in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland
  • ~ 64 000 investors
  • Operating wind farms Wind farms under construction Operating solar farms Solar farms under construction Cogeneration plant Hydro power station / other

* After sale of biomass-based cogeneration and pellet production

Electricity prices* on our core markets were down by more than 50%

Annual**
production
(TWh)
Annual**
Consumption
(TWh)
Annual**
Net export
(TWh)
Norway 152.4 134.5 +17.9
Sweden 155.5 132.1 +23.4
Finland 74.2 79.8 -5.6
Estonia 4.6 8.1 -3.5
Latvia 5.7 6.5 -0.8
Lithuania 5.5 11.7 -6.2
Poland 162.7 166.1 -3.4
Denmark 32.7 34.5 -1.8

* 2023 averages and yoy growth rates shown on the graph ** 2023 data Sources: ENTSO -E, Nord Pool

In 2023, electricity market price forecasts have come down

Core market electricity prices, €/MWh

During 2023 analysts' 2024 electricity price expectations for Enefit Green's core markets were lowered by up to 50%.

* The 2024E – 2033E electricity prices have been estimated by averaging the forecasts of market analysis companies SKM, Volue and Thema (SKM Market Predictor Long-Term Power Outlook – November 2023, Volue Long Term Price Forecast – December 2023, Thema Power Market Outlook – December 2023 (prices in Poland and Finland, May 2023)). The figures presented are nominal prices which have been estimated assuming a constant 2% rate of inflation.

5

New national climate plans

  • Targets set out in national climate plans for the share of electricity produced from renewable sources in the country's electricity consumption in 2030
  • More ambitious overall RE target share in consumption on EU level – min target 42.5% by 2030, aiming for 45%

* Based on Poland's 2019 plan Source: national energy and climate plans

Regulatory developments

Electricity market design

  • Baltic TSOs granted exception to use long-term contracts to purchase creation of capacities to balance electricity system
  • Wind Power Action Plan by European Commission
  • EC to publish guidance on the conduct of reverse auctions for wind power generation in Q2 2024

Wind power

  • Poland set the wind turbine restriction zone to 700 m
  • Lithuania and Estonia held first offshore wind auctions
  • Latvian government established a procedure for granting the right to build wind farms on state or municipal land
  • The Finnish coalition agreement foresees a possible new requirement for wind energy producers to invest in electricity system regulation

Accelerating renewable energy

  • Amendments to RED III raising RE ambitions
  • Faster permitting
  • Detailed rules for production of transport fuels (incl hydrogen) from renewable electricity
  • Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania enforced rules to prevent electricity producers from overbooking grid connections

Solar power

  • Poland prohibited the installation of solar power generation plants on class IV land when fast-track permitting is used starting from 2025.
  • In Lithuania rules for connecting solar power generators to the grid were first adopted and then declared null and void
  • Finland was first to test the viability of the EU's renewable energy support scheme
  • Estonia plans a fixed price grid connection option to households and apartment associations with up to 30kW production capacity

Last year's production was 75 GWh lower due to weaker than average wind conditions

Average measured wind speed in Enefit Green wind farms, m/s

Availability problems were more pronounced in Lithuanian wind farms

Three new renewable energy power plants with a total capacity of 65 MW were completed

Purtse hybrid park (21 MW + 32 MW) Annual output: ~ 78 GWh Investment: approx. €46m

Estonia kaevanduse solar farm (3 MW) Annual output: ~ 4 GWh Investment: approx. €3m

Zambrówi solar farm (9 MW) Annual output: ~ 9 GWh

Investment: approx. €6m

Strategy 2026

Production capacity, MW

Operating capacity Projects under construction Near-term development portfolio*

* Near-term development portfolio includes projects, which are developed to the state of final investment decision (FID) readiness before the end of 2024. The actual timing of FID depends of PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing

Projects under

construction 612 MW 97 MW

* Šilalė wind farm generates electricity at full capacity, but passing of certain grid tests (POD, power oscillation damping test) requires additional development activities. ** COD – Commercial Operating Date (a date when the asset will be categorised as operating asset) During 2023 following projects have been categorised as operating: Purtse WF (21MW), Purtse PV (32MW), Zambrów PV (9MW), Estonia (3MW)

Near term development

Projects which are developed to be ready for final investment decision before the end of 2024*

portfolio 150 MW 361 MW

  • Operating assets
  • Under construction

* Projects are being developed to the state of final investment decision (FID) readiness by the indicated time. The actual timing of FID depends of PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing

Complete view of the development portfolio

  • Operating
  • Under construction

* Various onshore wind and solar farm developments that are not expected to get final investment decision before 2025. The actual timing of FID depends on PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing.

** Also known as Hiiumaa Offshore Wind Farm

We decided to sell biomass cogeneration plants

Paide cogeneration plant Valka cogeneration plant

Buyer: Utilitas Transaction value: €15.8m*

Brocēni cogeneration plant and pellet factory

Buyer: Warmeston Transaction value: €32m*

* Stated on cash- and debt-free basis

Q4 2023 key highlights +87 MW Kelmė II

* (Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

Final investment decicion

+ 17 MW Carnikava Austrum + Dzērves

Final investment decicion

Exiting biomass business

Contracts for the sale of the Brocēni, Valka, and Paide cogeneration plants and pellet factory

EIA for North-Western Estonian offshore wind farm Approved by the Ministry of Climate

Summary of Q4 2023 electricity prices

Power prices €/MWh Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
Core markets' average electricity
price*
221.5 100.5 78.7 97.8 93.1
Price of electricity sold to the market 179.0 82.4 63.7 82.2 64.1
PPA price (incl. FiT until Q4 2022) 126.2 89.8 83.5 80.9 91.2
Realised purchase price 271.1 116.7 83.8 116.5 121.5
Implied captured electricity price** 163.0 101.4 89.9 84.9 80.9

* Production weighted average market price on group's core markets

** (electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support + revenues from sale of guarantees of origin - day-ahead and intraday purchases on Nord Pool - balancing energy purchases) / production

Production Purchases Sales via PPA (incl FiT) Sales to market

Implied captured price -50%

  • Core markets average price -58%
  • Increased volume of electricity purchases (2.1 times)
  • Price of electricity sold to the market -64%
  • PPA/FiT average price -28%
  • Increased electricity purchase volume (2.1 times) to cover the PPA portfolio and to balance the electricity portfolio. The increase in volume had lower combined impact compared to the positive impact resulting from 55% lower purchase price.

The primary driver of the change for Q4 2023 EBITDA was lower price for power sold to exchange

45.8 29.6 (30.7) +16.3 (7.3) +7.9 (1.2) +0.8 (3.0) +1.1 EBITDA Q4 2022 Sold electricity price impact Sold electricity quantity impact Purchased electricity quantity impact Purchased electricity price impact Cogeneration (excl. Volume and price of electricity) Decrease in nonderivative contract liability Fixed cost Other EBITDA Q4 2023 EBITDA -16.2 (-35.4%) Impacted by electricity production

Group's EBITDA change by drivers, €m

EBITDA €29.6m -35%

Electricity price net impact -€22.8m

Lower power market prices impacted electricity sold to power Exchange the most

Sold / purchased quantities net impact +€8.9m

42% higher production supported EBITDA growth, but fluctuation in production increased both electricity purchase and sale quantities

Impact of fixed expenses -€3.0m

The increase in fixed costs was attributable to growth in maintenance costs, payroll expenses and research and consultation expenses

Other cogeneration segment result -€1.2m

Decline in pellet sales revenue (-€4.4m) exceeded decrease in variable expenses (+€1.7m) and the gain on the sale of the Brocēni CHP plant and the pellet factory of €1.0m

2023 key highlights

* (Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

+178 MW 4 new final investment decisions

€505m

New investment loans (SEB, NIB, EIB)

+65 MW

New operating capacity (Purtse, Zambrów, Estonia)

Summary of 2023 electricity prices

Power prices €/MWh 2022 2023
Core markets' average electricity price* 205.5 92.7
Price of electricity sold to the market 165.7 73.0
PPA price (incl. FiT until Q4 2022) 90.8 86.9
Realised purchase price 229.2 110.2
Implied captured electricity price** 149.5 89.6

* Production weighted average market price on group's core markets

** (electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support + revenues from sale of guarantees of origin - day-ahead and intraday purchases on Nord Pool - balancing energy purchases) / production

Implied captured price**

Production Purchases Sales via PPA Sales to market

Implied captured price -40%

  • Core markets average price -55%
  • Price of electricity sold to the market -56%
  • PPA/FiT average price -4%
  • Increased electricity purchase volume (3.6 times) to cover the PPA portfolio and to balance the electricity portfolio. The increase in volume had higher combined impact compared to the positive impact resulting from 52% lower purchase price.

Operating income impacted by low electricity prices

Operating income by segment, €m

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Total revenues €230.1m -10%

Wind energy

  • Production growth from new wind farms (+226 GWh)
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 87 €/MWh (-37%)

CHP

  • More production in heat (+7%) and electricity (+1%)
  • Higher revenues from pellet (+€1.7m), waste collection (+€2.1m) and heat sales (+€1.4m)
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 126 €/MWh (- 41%)

Solar energy

  • Electricity production +99% due to new solar farms (operating farms´ operating income +€2.4m)
  • Exit from low profit margin "turn-key" solar services business in Q3 2022

* Implied captured electricity price = (electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

EBITDA decreased mainly due to lower electricity price for electricity sold to power exchange

Group's EBITDA change by drivers, €m

EBITDA €105.9m -32%

Electricity price net impact -€62.8m 56% lower price impact for electricity sold to exchange (-€72.9m) was reduced by 52% lower purchase price impact (+€14.2m)

Sold / purchased quantities net impact +€15.9m

20% higher production volume increased sales more than purchase volumes

Impact of fixed expenses -€8.6m

The increase in fixed costs was attributable to growth in maintenance costs, research and consultation expenses and payroll expenses.

Other cogeneration segment result +€3.5m:

Higher revenue from waste gate fee (€2.1m) and the gain on the sale of the Brocēni CHP plant and the pellet factory of €1.0m

Wind energy segment: lower electricity prices and increased electricity purchases decreased profits even at production growth

Electricity production, GWh

Implied captured electricity price, €/MWh*

* *(Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

Operating expenses per MW for last 4 quarters, €k/MW*

*(Total operating expenses - balancing energy purchase - D&A) / operating capacity. Only operating wind assets are included: Enefit Wind OÜ and Enefit Wind UAB

EBITDA €75.1m -31%

  • Production growth from new wind farms (+226 GWh)
  • Cost of electricity purchased to meet our obligations under the PPAs
  • Increased wind farm operating expenses (+13%) mainly from older wind parks
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 87 €/MWh (-37%)

Cogeneration segment: lower electricity prices had negative impact on profitability

Implied captured electricity price, €/MWh*

*(Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

Operating income, €m -9.7 (-10.3%)

EBITDA €37.4m -25%

  • Gain of €1.0m on the sale of Broceni CHP plants and pellet factory. 2023 cogeneration segment EBITDA includes €29.1m Iru power plant EBITDA
  • More production in heat (lower base value due to Iru power plant stoppage in 2022)
  • Higher revenues from pellet (+€1.7m), waste collection (+€2.1m) and heat sales (+€1.4m)
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 126€/MWh (-41%)

Solar segment: production from new solar farms improved operating income despite lower electricity prices

EBITDA €3.0m -16%

  • 99% higher production due to new solar parks (operating farms´ revenues +€2.4m)
  • Solar energy implied captured electricity price* 102€/MWh (-19%)
  • +2.2€m (+174%) higher fixed costs to support our growth plan (including +0.9€m higher payroll expenses)

€355.7m of investments in 2023

2023 Earnings Per share €0.21 Management's dividend proposal: €0.105 per share

Dividend proposal

In coordination with the supervisory board, the management board proposes that in 2024 the company pay the shareholders a dividend of €27.7m (€0.105 per share) from retained earnings, which is equivalent to 49.7% of the group's unaudited net profit for 2023.

Leverage is rising ahead of completion of new capacities

Return on invested capital = operating profit for the last 12 months/(net debt + equity) Return on equity = net profit for the last 12 months / equity

Loan repayment schedule, €m

Capital structure

Expectedly higher leverage and net debt / EBITDA ratio

Financial leverage 37%

Financing

  • Balance of outstanding loans €473m
  • Average interest rate 3.75%, including interest rate swaps (2022: 2,60%). Swaps cover 33% of loans.
  • During the year signed €505m of new loan facilities with EIB, SEB and NIB
  • Unutilised loans and revolving credit facilities of €285m + €50m

Return on equity 7.8%

  • Return on invested capital declined due to lower EBIT and growth in invested capital
  • Return on equity declined due to lower net profit

Electricity Portfolio: PPAs provide protection against low power prices

Forecasted production volumes of existing and new production assets, sold PPAs and RE support measures, GWh

* Price floor – state support in the form of a price floor received through a reverse auction at a price level of 34.9 €/MWh (maximum support 20 €/MWh) for 12 years.

** Expected production comprises the forecasted production of operating assets and assets under construction.

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

2024 - 2028

  • 7,167 GWh of sold PPAs (58% of expected production**)
  • Average contractual price 68.2 €/MWh

2029+

  • The longest PPAs maturity is in 2033
  • Against production expected beyond 2028, 2,458 GWh of PPAs have been sold at an average price of 79 €/MWh

Volume of new contracts signed in 2023

During 2023 we concluded 52.6 GWh of PPAs at an average price of 70 €/MWh

Electricity price risk management in 2024

Enefit Green's electricity production portfolio in 2024, as at 31 December 2023

Expected production volume Production covered by FiP PPA average contractual price

PPA contractual volume Production covered by CfD

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

We expect our production assets to produce 2.21 TWh of electricity in 2024

  • Expected production from operating assets is 1.16 TWh
  • Expected production from newly completed assets and assets under construction is 1.05 TWh

Risk Management Instruments

  • Sold PPAs in volume of 1.33 TWh (60% of the expected electricity production in 2024) at an average price of 67.6 €/MWh.
  • 28 GWh is covered by CfD at an average price of 112.1 €/MWh
  • 502 GWh is covered with FiP at an average level of 50.1 €/MWh

2023 summary

  • Over 50% decline in power prices
  • 20% growth in power production
  • 65 MW new operating capacity
  • Incident in Akmene, availabilities, shortage of production and growth in power purchase expenses
  • 4 final investment decisions 178 MW ~€200m investment
  • €505m of new loan facilities
  • Sale of biomass assets
  • Management's dividend proposal: €0.105/share (49.7% of net profit)

Total renewable capacity under construction

709 MW

+138% additional capacity when completed

Aavo Kärmas, juhatuse esimees Veiko Räim, finantsjuht

Appendix

Condensed consolidated interim financial statements Q4 and 12 months 2023

Condensed consolidated interim income statement

€ thousand Q4 2023 Q4 2022 2023 2022
Revenue 61,157 76,380 205,757 233,280
Renewable energy support and other income 5,745 6,372 24,307 23,735
Change in inventories of finished goods and work-in-progress (1,056) (1,304) 2,210 3,303
Raw materials, consumables and services used (28,944) (30,486) (100,330) (85,954)
Payroll expenses (2,782) (2,470) (10,807) (9,111)
Depreciation, amortisation and impairment (10,819) (8,848) (40,559) (37,777)
Other operating expenses (4,520) (2,688) (15,237) (10,411)
OPERATING PROFIT 18,781 36,956 65,341 117,065
Finance income 1,134 240 1,960 337
Finance costs (1,481) (1,688) (1,858) (2,342)
Net finance costs (347) (1,448) 102 (2,005)
Profit (loss) from associates under the equity method (20) 27 66 714
PROFIT BEFORE TAX 18,414 35,535 65,509 115,774
Corporate Income Tax Expense 690 (126) (9,716) (5,567)
PROFIT FOR THE PERIOD 19,104 35,409 55,793 110,207
Basic and diluted earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares, thousand 264,276 264,276 264,276 264,276
Basic earnings
per share, €
0.072 0.13 0.21 0.42
Diluted
earnings
per share, €
0.072 0.13 0.21 0.42

Condensed consolidated interim statement of financial position

€ thousand 31 Dec
2023
31 Dec
2022
ASSETS
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment 1,027,057 776,870
Intangible assets 59,891 60,382
Right-of-use assets 9,097 4,239
Prepayments 55,148 19,412
Deferred tax assets 2,013 1,321
Investments in associates 548 506
Derivative financial instruments 5,054 11 277
Long-term receivables 40
Total non-current assets 1,158,808 874,047
Current assets
Inventories 3,180 14,227
Assets of a company
held
for
sale
15,370 0
Trade and other receivables and prepayments 55,082 41,091
Cash and cash equivalents 65,677 131,456
Derivative financial instruments 3,806 3,349
Total current assets 143,115 190,123
Total assets 1,301,923 1,064,170

€ thousand 31 Dec
2023
31 Dec
2022
EQUITY
Equity and reserves attributable to equity
holder of the parent
Share capital 264,276 264,276
Share premium 60,351 60,351
Statutory reserve capital 5,556 3,259
Other reserves 163,451 166,419
Foreign currency translation reserve (162) (762)
Retained earnings 223,718 225,190
Total equity 717,190 718,733
LIABILITIES
Non-current liabilities
Borrowings 454,272 255,755
Goverment grants 3,102 7,115
Non-derivative contract liability 12,412 18,086
Deferred tax liabilities 12,497 12,326
Other
non-current
liabilities
5,239 3,000
Provisions 8 9
Total non-current liabilities 487,530 296,291
Current liabilities
Borrowings 28,159 23,808
Trade and other payables 58,412 20,215
Liabilities of a company
held for sale
4,952 0
Provisions 6 2
Non-derivative
contract
liability
5,674 5,121
Total current liabilities 97,203 49,146
Total liabilities 584,733 345,437
Total equity and liabilities 1,301,923 1,064,170

Condensed consolidated statement of cash flows

€ thousand Q4 2023 Q4 2022 2023 2022
Cash flows from operating activities
Cash generated from operations 17,596 30,481 94,917 136,223
Interest and loan fees paid (2,726) (1,360) (9,862) (3,202)
Interest received 181 239 826 251
Income tax paid (501) (829) (11,676) (7,046)
Net cash generated from operating activities 14,550 28,531 74,205 126,226
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchase of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets (70,847) (60,487) (312,692) (190,436)
Collection of finance lease receivables 0 0 1 0
Proceeds from sale of property, plant and equipment 0 0 0 3
Proceeds from sale of a business 30,548 0 30,548 724
Dividends form investments in financial assets 0 0 24 62
Net cash used in investing activities (40,299) (60,487) (282,119) (190 120)
Cash flows from financing activities
Received bank loans 142,000 100,000 302,000 270,000
Repayments of bank loans (76,257) (100,131) (104,571) (115,277)
Repayments of leases (48) (168) (324) (431)
Dividends paid 0 0 (54,970) (39,906)
Other adjustments 0 0 0 37
Net cash generated from (used in) financing activities 65,695 (299) 142,135 114,423
Net cash flows 39,946 (32,255) (65,779) 51,002
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 25,731 163,711 131,456 80,454
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 65,677 131,456 65,677 131,456
Net increase / (-) decrease in cash and cash equivalents 39,946 (32,255) (65,779) 51,002

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