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Enefit Green

Investor Presentation May 2, 2024

2216_ip_2024-05-02_fb9113a1-378c-4e42-90e7-c13784f74b80.pdf

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Unaudited interim report Q1 2024

Results are presented by:

Aavo Kärmas Chief Executive Officer

Veiko Räim Chief Financial Officer

Average electricity prices were lower compared to last year

Drivers :

  • Increased wind and hydropower generation
  • Decreased natural gas and emission allowance prices
  • Relatively mild winter

3

Long term electricity price forecasts declined during Q1

Long-term price forecast

  • Price forecasts for all core markets were lowered in Q1 2024
  • More pronounced changes in forecasts for 2025 and 2026
  • Price forecasts for Baltic markets were reduced on average by 22 EUR/MWh (2025) and 13 EUR/MWh (2026)
  • Forecasts were lowered due to:
    • decreased natural gas and CO2 prices
    • lower than expected consumption

* 2025E – 2034E electricity prices have been estimated by averaging the forecasts of market analysis companies SKM, Volue and Thema (SKM Market Predictor Long-Term Power Outlook – February 2024, Volue Long Term Price Forecast – March 2024, Thema Power Market Outlook – February 2024 (Polish and Finnish prices: May 2023)). The figures presented are nominal prices, which have been estimated assuming a constant 2% rate of inflation.

Regulatory developments

European Union

  • The process of changing the EU electricity market regulation was not completed. In addition to the electricity market design reform, the hydrogen and decarbonised gas market package will be adopted
  • European Commission issued a recommendation for a new EU climate target: a 90% net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 2040 compared to 1990 levels

Estonia

  • Discussions on the drafting of a Climate Act continued and a call for ideas on necessary changes to sectoral legislation was launched
  • A proposal for waste reform was published. One of the objectives is to reduce the use of unsorted municipal waste for energy production
  • The parliament is in the process of transposing the Renewable Energy Directive, measures to reduce the use of wood for energy production
  • The parliament is also in the process of amending the Building Code to speed up the deployment of renewable energy

Latvia

  • A new version of climate and energy plan has come under heavy criticism from the private sector → the national targets only include the project volumes of state-owned companies
  • A map of areas where wind farm development is not allowed due to potential threats to national defence capabilities was published
  • A draft law on the construction of the fourth Estonian-Latvian electricity interconnector (ELWIND) and an associated offshore wind farm
  • Public consultation launched on a report on nuclear energy options
  • Government announced plans to partially privatise several important state-owned energy companies via the stock exchange

Lithuania

• Rules for monitoring birds and bats at wind farms came into force

Finland

• An environmental impact assessment (EIA) programme for extending the service life and uprating the thermal power of units 1 and 2 of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant has been submitted for consultation

Poland

• An updated climate and energy plan 2030 was submitted to the European Commission: 32% → 50% (share of renewable electricity in total electricity consumption)

42 GWh lower production due to weaker than average wind conditions

Average measured wind speed in Enefit Green wind farms, m/s

Considerably improved availability of Šilutė wind farm following last year's problems

Development of production portfolio

Production capacity, MW

Near-term development portfolio* Under construction Operating capacity

* Near-term development portfolio includes projects, which are developed to the state of final investment decision (FID) readiness before the end of 2024. The actual timing of FID depends of PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing

Projects under

construction 612 MW 97 MW

* Replacement of the turbine that collapsed in Akmene in May 2023 was carried out in March 2024

** COD – Commercial Operating Date (a date when the asset will be categorised as operating asset)

Near term development

portfolio 150 MW 355 MW

  • Operating assets
  • Under construction

* Projects are being developed to the state of final investment decision (FID) readiness by the indicated time. The actual timing of FID depends of PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing

Complete view of the development portfolio

  • Operating
  • Under construction

* Various onshore wind and solar farm developments that are not expected to get final investment decision before 2025. The actual timing of FID depends on PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing.

** Also known as Hiiumaa Offshore Wind Farm

Q1 2024 key highlights

* (Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

360 MW

Agreement with RES Global Investment to co-develop early stage onshore wind projects

farms

Summary of 2024 Q1 electricity prices

Power prices €/MWh Q1 2023 Q1 2024
Core markets' average
electricity
price*
100.5 87.0
Price of electricity sold to the market 82.4 77.6
PPA price (incl. FiT until Q4 2022) 89.8 75.0
Realised purchase price 116.7 106.1
Implied
captured
electricity
price**
101.2 81.4

* Production weighted average market price on group's core markets

** (electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support + revenues from sale of guarantees of origin - day-ahead and intraday purchases on Nord Pool - balancing energy purchases) / production

Implied captured price -20%

Core markets average price -13%

Price of electricity sold to the market -6%

PPA average price decrease (16%) caused by the beginning of the settlement period of lower-priced PPAs signed in 2021 for windfarms in Lithuania and Finland

Realised purchase price decreased 9% and at the same time electricity purchase volume increased 46 GWh. The purchase volume of electricity is at a similar proportion to the volume purchased in the fourth quarter of 2023

Due to higher wind profile discount the difference between the purchase price and the market price increased. In Lithuania wind profile discount increased by 3.3 percentage points year on year and in Estonia 0.4 percentage points.

Operating income decreased mainly due to sale of biomass assets

44.6 50.3 32.0 17.6 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.1 +0.1 +0.0 +5.7 (14.5) 77.5 68.9 0 50 Operating income 2023 Q1 Operating income 2024 Q1 Wind energy CHP Solar energy Other Operating income -8.6 (-11.1%)

Operating income by segment, €m

100

Total revenues €68.9m -11%

Wind energy

  • Production growth from new wind farms (+125 GWh)
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 78 €/MWh (- 19%)

CHP

  • Sale of assets impacted operating income by €12m
  • Lower electricity (-18%) and heat (-3%) production in Iru CHP
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 126 €/MWh (-7%)

Solar energy

Electricity production +143% from new solar farms

* Implied captured electricity price = (electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

EBITDA increased mainly due sale of Paide and Valka CHP

Group's EBITDA change by drivers, €m

Electricity price net impact -€7.4m 6% lower price impact for electricity sold to exchange was reduced by 9% lower purchase price impact Sold / purchased quantities net impact +€7.6m 22% higher production volume increased sales (+132 GWh) more than purchase volumes (+46 GWh) Impact of fixed expenses -€1.0m The increase in fixed costs was attributable to growth in maintenance costs and IT expenses. Iru (excluding fixed costs and electricity volume and price impact) CHP -€1.0m Lower revenue from waste gate fee (€0.7m) and higher natural gas expense (€0.3m) EBITDA €42.4m +3%

Sold assets result +€3.1m:

Paide and Valka CHP sales profit €5.5m

Wind energy segment: negative impact from lower electricity prices was offset by increased production from new wind farms

+100.1 (+28.5%) Electricity production, GWh

-18.0 (-18.8%) Implied captured electricity price, €/MWh*

*(Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

+5,3 (+14,8%) Operating expenses per MW for last 4 quarters, €k/MW*

*(Total operating expenses - balancing energy purchase - D&A) / operating capacity. Only operating wind assets are included: Enefit Wind OÜ, Enefit Wind UAB and starting from Q3 2023 Purtse windfarm.

EBITDA €32.1m +4%

  • Production growth from new wind farms (+125 GWh)
  • Cost of electricity purchased to meet our obligations under the PPAs
  • Increased wind farm operating expenses (+15%) because of maintenance contracts indexing
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 78 €/MWh (-19%)

Cogeneration segment: EBITDA driven by sale of Paide and Valka CHP plants

Implied captured electricity price, €/MWh*

*(Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

EBITDA €13.5m +5%

  • Gain of €5.5m on the sale of Paide and Valka CHP plants
  • 18% lower production Iru CHP plants due to lower availability and colder weather (reduced electricity production to meet heat energy demand)
  • Lower implied captured electricity price 126€/MWh (-7%)

Solar segment: production from new solar farms improved operating income despite lower electricity prices

EBITDA €0.3m +22%

  • 143% higher production due to new solar parks
  • Solar energy implied captured electricity price* 78 €/MWh (-25%)
  • Higher cost of electricity purchased to meet our obligations under the Purtse PV PPA

*(Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

€104.8m of investments in 2024 Q1

Liquidity development 2024 Q1, €m

Operations Lower support than previously to continuing investments due to lower electricity prices Investments 2024 Q1 investments in the amount of €104.8m, majority into developments: Sopi-Tootsi €64.8m Kelmė I €10.4m Kelmė II €2.5m Sopi PV €17.6m Investments €104.8m +14%

0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0 140,0

2024 Q1 Earnings Per share €0.13

Net profit €33.4m +10%

Net financial costs

  • Increase interest income
  • Interest expense increase of +3.0m, but neutral impact on profit due to 99% capitalization rate

Corporate income tax

Decrease by €0.9m

Net profit

  • Sale of Paide and Valka CHP plant
  • Higher production volume from new assets
  • Lower power prices

Higher electricity purchase costs to balance electricity portfolio

Leverage is rising ahead of completion of new capacities

Return on invested capital = operating profit for the last 12 months/(net debt + equity) Return on equity = net profit for the last 12 months / equity

Loan repayment schedule, €m

Financial leverage 38%

Capital structure

Expectedly higher leverage and net debt / EBITDA ratio

Financing

  • Balance of outstanding loans €494m
  • Average interest rate 3.79%, including interest rate swaps (31 Dec 2023: 3,75%). Swaps cover 31% of loans.
  • Unutilised loans and revolving credit facilities of €285m + €20m

Return on equity 7.8%

  • Return on invested capital declined due to lower EBIT and growth in invested capital
  • Return on equity declined due to lower net profit

Electricity price risk management in 2024

Enefit Green's electricity production portfolio in 2024, as at 31 March 2024

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

We expect to produce 2.12 TWh of electricity in 2024

  • Operating assets: 1.21 TWh
  • Newly completed assets and assets under construction: 0.91 TWh

Risk Management instruments and activities

  • Sold PPAs in volume of 1.31 TWh (62% of expected production) at an average price of 67.6 €/MWh.
  • 27 GWh is covered by CfD at an average price of 112.1 €/MWh and 484 GWh is covered with FiP at an average level of 50.1 €/MWh
  • To reduce PPA balancing purchase risk:
    • purchased 16.5 GWh of Finnish electricity for March-July 2024 and consider purchasing additionally up to 19.6 GWh for August-December 2024.
    • switched delivery area from Lithuania to Estonia for 112.4 GWh of PPAs

Annual General Meeting of Shareholders

  • On 14 May at 13.00 EEST in Fotografiska Tallinn (Telliskivi 60a-8, Tallinn)
  • Registration for the meeting starts at 12.00 and ends at 12.50
  • Read meeting agenda »
  • The meeting will be held in Estonian, simultaneous translation to English is available at the venue

Q1 2024 summary

  • Tolpanvaara wind farm has been commissioned
  • Akmene: collapsed turbine replaced, negotiations with GE
  • Kelme I: installation of turbines has started
  • Sopi-Tootsi: preparations for installation of turbines ongoing
  • Co-development agreement with RES Global (360 MW of earlystage wind projects)
  • 10MVA direct electricity line with Elcogen
  • Exit from biomass assets has been completed
  • 22% growth in electricity production, but 95 GWh less than projected
  • Lower electricity prices

Total renewable capacity under construction

709 MW

+138% additional capacity when completed

Aavo Kärmas, CEO Veiko Räim, CFO

Electricity portfolio hedging Condensed consolidated interim financial statements Q1 2024

Electricity Portfolio: PPAs provide protection against low power prices

Forecasted production volumes of existing and new production assets, sold PPAs and RE support measures, GWh

* Price floor – state support in the form of a price floor received through a reverse auction at a price level of 34.9 €/MWh (maximum support 20 €/MWh) for 12 years.

** Expected production comprises the forecasted production of operating assets and assets under construction.

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

2024 - 2028

  • 7,150 GWh of sold PPAs (47.1% of expected production**)
  • Average contractual price 68.2 €/MWh

2029+

  • The longest PPAs maturity is in 2033
  • Against production expected beyond 2028, 2,458 GWh of PPAs have been sold at an average price of 79 €/MWh

Volume of new contracts

No new PPAs were concluded during first quarter of 2024

Condensed consolidated interim income statement

€ thousand Q1 2024 Q1 2023
Revenue 56,192 69,691
Renewable energy support and other operating income 12,729 7,813
Change in inventories of finished goods and work in progress 0 (5,060)
Raw materials, consumables and services used (20,674) (24,792)
Payroll expenses (2,225) (2,486)
Depreciation, amortisation and impairment (9,342) (9,815)
Other operating expenses (3,595) (4,055)
OPERATING PROFIT 33,085 31,296
Finance income 570 407
Finance costs (306) (380)
Net finance income and costs 264 27
Profit (loss) from associates under the equity method (10) 19
PROFIT BEFORE TAX 33,339 31,342
Income tax income (expense) 107 (820)
PROFIT FOR THE PERIOD 33,446 30,522
Basic and diluted earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares, thousand 264,276 264,276
Basic earnings per share, € 0.13 0.12
Diluted earnings per share, € 0.13 0.12

Condensed consolidated interim statement of financial position

€ thousand 31 March 2024 31 December 2023 € thousand 31 March 2024 31 December 2023
ASSETS EQUITY
Equity and reserves attributable to shareholders of the parent
Non-current assets Share capital 264,276 264,276
Property, plant and equipment 1,123,597 1,027,057 Share premium 60,351 60,351
Intangible assets 59,857 59,891 Statutory capital reserve 5,556 5,556
Right-of-use assets 8,764 9,097 Other reserves 164,566 163,451
Prepayments for non-current assets 54,240 55,148 Foreign currency translation reserve (108) (162)
Retained earnings 257,163 223,718
Deferred tax assets 2,095 2,013 Total equity
LIABILITIES
751,804 717,190
Investments in associates 538 548 Non-current liabilities
Derivative financial instruments 5,169 5,054 Borrowings 437,916 454,272
Non-current receivables 1,826 0 Government grants 3,054 3,102
Total non-current assets 1,256,086 1,158,808 Non-derivative contract liability 12,471 12,497
Deferred tax liabilities 12,412 12,412
Other non-current liabilities 5,239 5,239
Current assets Provisions 8 8
Inventories 3,402 3,180 Total non-current liabilities 471,100 487,530
Trade and other receivables and prepayments 40,930 55,082 Current liabilities
Borrowings 67,685 32,126
Derivative financial instruments 3,720 3,806 Trade and other payables 44,870 54,445
Cash and cash equivalents 34,989 65,677 Provisions 6 6
83,041 127,745 Non-derivative contract liability 3,662 5,674
Assets classified as held for sale 0 15,370 116,223 92,251
Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale
Total current liabilities
0
116,223
4,952
97,203
Total current assets 83,041 143,115 Total liabilities 587,323 584,733
Total assets 1,339,127 1,301,923 Total equity and liabilities 1,339,127 1,301,923

Condensed consolidated statement of cash flows


thousand
Q1 2024 Q1 2023
Cash
flows
from
operating
activities
Cash generated from operations 35,163 44,337
Interest and loan fees paid (8,497) (2,053)
Interest received 458 311
Income tax paid 0 (574)
Net cash generated from operating activities 27,124 42,021
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchase of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets (97,282) (85,747)
Proceeds from disposal of subsidiaries (net of cash and cash equivalents transferred) 16,879 0
Net cash used in investing activities (80,403) (85,747)
Cash flows from financing activities
Proceeds from bank loans 30,000 0
Repayments of bank loans (9,012) (7,137)
Repayments of lease principal (58) (84)
Proceeds from realisation of interest rate swaps 1,661 0
Net cash generated from (used in) financing activities 22,591 (7,221)
Net cash flow (30,688) (50,947)
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 65,677 131,456
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 34,989 80,509
Change in cash and cash equivalents (30,688) (50,947)

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