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Enefit Green

Investor Presentation Aug 1, 2024

2216_ip_2024-08-01_cbdafdbd-c473-4304-adb5-8e0c89e026f9.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Q2 2024 Results Presentation

Results are presented by:

Andres Maasing Interim Chief Executive Officer

Veiko Räim Chief Financial Officer

Changes in board composition

  • Due to the expiry of the term of office of the CEO and chairman of the management board, Aavo Kärmas, on 1 July, the supervisory board appointed Juhan Aguraiuja as the new CEO and chairman of the management board with effect from 14 October 2024
  • Andres Maasing, member of the board and Head of Development has been appointed as intrerim chairman of the board
  • Recruitment of a new board member is underway as current CFO Veiko Räim is not applying for extension of his contract after the end of his current contract (24 September 2024 )

Baltic electricity price decline slowing , occasionally even reversing

Drivers:

  • EstLink2 (650 MW) down
  • Natural gas and emission allowance prices stabilising at new level

4

4

Long term electricity price forecasts increased during Q2

Long-term price forecast

  • Price forecasts for all core markets were updated higher in Q2 2024
  • The prices for years 2025 and 2026 were raised by around 15%
  • Longer term forecasts remained largely unchanged
  • Forecasts were raised due to:
    • Increased natural gas and CO2 prices
    • Higher production costs of gas power plants

* 2025E – 2034E electricity prices have been estimated by averaging the forecasts of market analysis companies SKM, Volue and Thema (SKM Market Predictor Long-Term Power Outlook – May 2024, Volue Long Term Price Forecast – June 2024, Thema Power Market Outlook – May 2024 (Polish and Finnish prices: May 2023)). The figures presented are nominal prices, which have been estimated assuming a constant 2% rate of inflation.

Regulatory developments

European Union

  • The process of changing the EU's electricity market rules came to an end. Aim to create a market environment with more stable prices (for example, the obligation to use two-way contracts for difference)
  • The Directive gives in Baltic states the right to allow their TSOs and their affiliates to own, develop, manage and operate energy storage facilities

Estonia

  • Accelerated Deployment of Renewable Energy Act was adopted, which introduced a superficies licence for offshore wind farms, thereby changing the rights of persons that had previously developed offshore wind farms
  • An amendment to the Electricity Market Act was adopted, suspending the payment of renewable electricity and efficient cogeneration support for electricity produced from waste at Iru power plant in the first half of 2025 (estimated negative impact on revenues and EBITDA: € -2.8m)
  • Work continued on draft legislation on waste reform, which will affect the production of electricity and heat from waste from 2025
  • The preparation of draft laws related to renewable electricity auctions, electricity storage, the establishment of the principle of proactive development of the main grid, and the amendment of district heating regulations has begun
  • Desynchronization entails the cost of frequency reserves for generators, which is estimated to be €5.31/MWh for the producer – negatively impacting the construction of new renewable energy projects in Estonia
  • Elering launched a call for tenders for the procurement of 500 MW of electricity generation and storage capacity

• Parliament adopted a decision on supporting the introduction of nuclear energy in Estonia

Latvia

  • A regulation on the compensation (toleration fees) to be paid for the benefit of the communities around wind farms was drafted
  • Preparations continued for the amendment of the Electricity Market Law in the area of network services
  • To speed up the use of the right to connect to the grid, it is planned to allow the right to be transferred to another person without losing the deposit paid for the connection

Lithuania

  • Amendments to the conditions for connection to the system operator's grid entered into force, clarifying, the rules for the connection of power plants to be built in several phases and hybrid farms
  • Parliament adopted the revised National Energy Independence Strategy, which focuses on the production of electricity from renewable energy sources

Finland

• Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment set up a working group to prepare the changes needed for the addition of wind power and industrial electricity consumers

Poland

• Amendments to the regulation on balancing responsibility were adopted. Aims to strengthen market mechanisms so that the pricing of balancing energy would incentivise market participants to adjust production and consumption to market conditions

Wind conditions better than last year, but still below expectations

Average measured wind speed in Enefit Green wind farms, m/s

Good availabilities of operating wind assets

Availability of Lithuanian wind farms (%)

Development of production portfolio

Production capacity, MW

Near-term development portfolio* Under construction Operating capacity

* Near-term development portfolio includes projects, which are developed to the state of final investment decision (FID) readiness before the end of 2024. The actual timing of FID depends on PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing

Projects under

construction 540 MW 97 MW

* COD – Commercial Operating Date (a date when the asset will be categorised as operating asset). During Q2, 72 MW Tolpanvaara wind farm has been categorised as operating asset.

Near-term development portfolio 150 MW 386 MW + H2 4 MW/8MWh 1 MW

  • Operating assets
  • Under construction

* Projects are being developed to the state of final investment decision (FID) readiness by the indicated time. The actual timing of FID depends on PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing

Full overview of the development portfolio

  • Operating
  • Under construction

* Various onshore wind and solar farm developments that are not expected to get final investment decision before 2025. The actual timing of FID depends on PPA demand, availability of other instruments for revenue security (state auctions, possible support mechanisms etc), pricing of equipment for electricity production, construction prices and financing.

** Also known as Hiiumaa Offshore Wind Farm

H2

The share of new assets is growing

Electricity production, GWh

* New assets include production assets, commissioned 2023 or later or those still uncommissioned but producing electricity – ie all assets, that have been completed or are under construction as part of the investment programme launched in 2021

** The month in which the asset made first significant contribution to Enefit Green's electricity production

Šilale
II
43 MW 1/2023**
Akmene 75 MW 3/2023
Purtse 21 MW 3/2023
Zambrow 9 MW 4/2023
Purtse 32 MW 5/2023
Estonia 3 MW 3/2023
Tolpanvaara 72 MW 12/2023
Debnik 6 MW 2/2024

Q2 2024 key highlights

€100m

Extension of the maturity and increase of the loan amount (Swedbank, prev. €50m)

* Production assets commissioned in 2023 or later

** (Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

Focus on completion of major new assets Sopi-Tootsi Kelme I Sopi PV

6m 2024 key highlights

* (Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

360 MW

Agreement with RES Global Investment to co-develop early stage onshore wind projects

Focus on completion of major new assets Sopi-Tootsi Kelme I Sopi PV

15

Captured price driven by lower PPA price, increasing profile discounts

Power prices €/MWh Q2 2023 Q2 2024
Core markets' average
electricity
price*
78.7 72.2
Price of electricity sold to the market 63.7 52.3
PPA price (incl. FiT until Q4 2022) 83.5 6.8
Realised purchase price 83.8 80.4
Implied
captured
electricity
price**
89.3 69.7

* Production weighted average market price on group's core markets

** (electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support + revenues from sale of guarantees of origin - day-ahead and intraday purchases on Nord Pool - balancing energy purchases) / production

Implied captured price -22%

Core markets average price -8%

Price of electricity sold to the market -18%

PPA average price decrease (19%) caused by the beginning of the settlement period of lower-priced PPAs signed in 2021 for windfarms in Lithuania and Finland

The realised purchase price has decreased by 4% compared to the first quarter of 2023 due to the decline in the market price, but the increased profile discount has led to a growth in the gap between the purchase price and the selling price.

The discount for the Lithuanian wind profile increased by 4.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, reaching 13% in the second quarter of 2024, while the discount for the Estonian solar profile deepened by 6.3 percentage points to 30.3%.

Operating income decreased mainly due to assets sold

23.9 26.8 9.5 9.1 4.7 -0.8 3.0 3.1 0.1 0.1 +0.1 (0.0) +2.9 (0.4) (5.5) 41.2 38.3 -5 45 Operating income 2023 Q2 Operating income 2024 Q2 Wind energy Iru Sold Solar energy Other assets Operating income -2.9 (-7.1%)

Operating income by segment, €m

Total revenues €38.3m -7%

Wind energy

  • Production growth from new wind farms (+81 GWh)
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 64 €/MWh (- 26%)

CHP

  • Sale of assets impacted operating income by €5.5m
  • Lower electricity (-10%) and heat (-9%) production in Iru CHP
  • Higher implied captured electricity price* 113 €/MWh (+8%)

Solar energy

Stable operating revenues as higher production balanced decline in captured prices.

* Implied captured electricity price = (electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

Increased production from new assets (+85 GWh) neutralised lower price impact on EBITDA

Group's EBITDA change by drivers, €m

EBITDA €18.9m -2%

Electricity price net impact -€5.4m

The impact of the 18% lower price of electricity sold to the market was mitigated by a 4% lower purchase price. Due to the increased profile discount, the gap between the purchase price and the selling price widened, which had a negative impact on revenues amounting to -0.9 million EUR.

Sold / purchased quantities net impact +€7.4m

35% higher production volume increased sales (+103 GWh) more than purchase volumes (+11 GWh)

Iru (excluding fixed costs and electricity volume and price impact) CHP -€0.3m

The decline was mainly caused by lower energy production due to lower availability, which was offset by an increase in the heat price ceiling compared to the comparison period.

Sold assets result +€1.6m:

In the second quarter of 2024, the EBITDA impact of sold assets was -0.8 million EUR, related to the adjustment of the sales profit of the Paide and Valka cogeneration plants in April.

Wind energy segment: negative impact from lower electricity prices was offset by increased production from new wind farms

+104.1 (+54.4%)

Electricity production, GWh

Implied captured electricity price, €/MWh*

-2,22 (-25,7%)

*(Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

+2.9 (+12.0%) +2.3 (+18.1%) Operating income and EBITDA, €m

Operating expenses per MW for last 4 quarters, €k/MW*

*(Total operating expenses - balancing energy purchase - D&A) / operating capacity. Only operating wind assets are included: Enefit Wind OÜ, Enefit Wind UAB and starting from Q3 2023 Purtse windfarm.

EBITDA €15.1m +18.1%

  • Production growth from new wind farms (+81 GWh)
  • Lower implied captured electricity price* 64 €/MWh (- 26%)
  • Cost of electricity purchased to meet our obligations under the PPAs
  • In Q2 2024, operating expenses have decreased by 12% compared to Q2 2023, due to lower maintenance and repair costs in operating wind farms (-€0.4m)

+3.1 (+8.4%)

Cogeneration segment: Sold assets EBITDA decreased segment profitability

Iru Sold assets

+8.4 (+8.1%) -2.7 (-18.5%) Implied captured electricity price, €/MWh*

*(Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

EBITDA, €m -2.4 (-31.1%)

2023 Q2 2024 Q2

EBITDA €5.4m -31%

  • Higher implied captured electricity price 113 €/MWh (+8%) due to the growth in the Nord Pool Estonia price area
  • In the second quarter of 2024, the EBITDA impact of sold assets was -€0.8m, related to the adjustment of the sales profit of the Paide and Valka cogeneration plants in April.
  • Decline in Iru EBITDA was mainly caused by lower energy production due to lower availability and increased maintenance and repair costs, which was offset by an increase in the heat price

Solar segment: higher production balances lower prices

EBITDA €2.2m -0.6%

  • +6% higher production due to new solar parks
  • +€0.4m higher subsidies in Poland
  • +€0.2m curtailment provision in Poland
  • Solar energy implied captured electricity price* 80 €/MWh (-6%)
  • +€0.1m higher operating costs from new parks Zambrow and Purtse (network service costs)

*(Electricity sales revenue + renewable energy support and efficient cogeneration support – electricity purchases on the Nord Pool day-ahead and intraday market – balancing energy purchases) / production

€129.8m of investments in 2024 Q2

Operations Investments €129.8m +74%

Lower support than previously to continuing investments due to lower electricity prices

Investments

  • 2024 Q2 investments in the amount of €129.8m, majority into developments:
    • Sopi-Tootsi €86.6m
    • Kelmė I €11.6m
    • Kelmė II €8.7m
    • Sopi PV €7.4m

The completion of projects currently under construction will cost an estimated €250 mln

Q2 2024 earnings per share €0.015

Net financial costs Interest expense increase of +€3.5m, but neutral impact on profit due to 99% capitalization rate Corporate income tax Decrease by €4.1m Net profit Higher production volume from new assets Lower power prices Higher profile discount Net profit €3.9m +246%

We expect leverage to peak in 2025

Return on invested capital = operating profit for the last 12 months/(net debt + equity) Return on equity = net profit for the last 12 months / equity

Financial leverage 45%

Capital structure

Higher leverage and net debt / EBITDA ratio as expected

Financing

0%

25%

50%

  • Balance of outstanding loans €614m
  • Average interest rate 4.23%, including interest rate swaps (31 March 2024: 3.79%). Swaps cover 24% of loans.
  • Increased our loan with Swedbank to €100mln
  • Unutilised loans of €235m

Return on equity 8.4%

  • Lower return on invested capital declined due to growth in invested capital
  • Higher return on equity due to larger net profit

Electricity price risk management in 2024

Enefit Green's electricity production portfolio in 2024, as at 30 June 2024

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

Actual Q2 production volume was -61 GWh compared to forecast (-155 GWh YTD)

• Mainly due to wind conditions, but also Tolpanvaara, Akmene and Iru availability

We expect to produce 2.06 TWh of electricity in 2024

  • Operating assets: 1.18 TWh
  • Newly completed assets and assets under construction: 0.88 TWh

Risk Management instruments and activities

  • PPAs in volume of 1.29 TWh (62.8% of expected production) at an average price of 67.2 €/MWh.
  • 26 GWh is covered by CfD at an average price of 112.4 €/MWh and 469 GWh is covered with FiP at an average level of 50.1 €/MWh
  • To reduce PPA balancing purchase risk:
    • Reduced the Q3 2024 PPA volume in the Baltic price region by 23.1 GWh

1H 2024 summary

  • +27% electricity production growth supported by new assets…
  • … but trailing forecast by -155 GWh
    • (weaker wind speeds, availability at Iru and Tolpanvaara)
  • Decline of electricity prices is slowing down
  • Op. income (- €7.9m) and EBITDA (+€8.3m) impacted by assets sold
  • Sopi-Tootsi: over 50% of turbines have been erected
  • Kelme I: 100% of turbines erected
  • Sopi PV: panels are being installed
  • Battery storage and hydrogen pilot projects approaching RtB status
  • Net profit impacted by lower corporate income tax expense (- €4.1m)

Total renewable capacity under construction

637 MW

+108% additional capacity when completed

Andres Maasing, interim CEO Veiko Räim, CFO

Electricity portfolio hedging Condensed consolidated interim financial statements Q2 2024

Electricity Portfolio: PPAs provide protection against low power prices

Forecasted production volumes of existing and new production assets, sold PPAs and RE support measures, GWh

* Price floor – state support in the form of a price floor received through a reverse auction at a price level of 34.9 €/MWh (maximum support 20 €/MWh) for 12 years.

** Expected production comprises the forecasted production of operating assets and assets under construction.

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

2024 - 2028

  • 7,127 GWh of sold PPAs (47.2% of expected production**)
  • Average contractual price 68.1 €/MWh

2029+

  • The longest PPAs maturity is in 2033
  • Against production expected beyond 2028, 2,458 GWh of PPAs have been sold at an average price of 79 €/MWh

Volume of new contracts

No new PPAs were concluded during first quarter of 2024

Near-term development portfolio production

We have omitted from production forecast potential contribution of near-term development portfolio regarding which no FID was yet made

Condensed consolidated interim income statement

€ thousand Q2
2024
Q2
2023
H1 2024 H1 2023
Revenue 33,875 36,760 90,067 106,451
Renewable energy support and other operating income 4,377 4,406 17,106 12,219
Change in inventories of finished goods and work in progress 0 4,892 0 (168)
Raw materials, consumables and services used (13,910) (20,583) (34,584) (45,375)
Payroll expenses (2,363) (2,905) (4,588) (5,391)
Depreciation, amortisation and impairment (9,829) (9,707) (19,171) (19,522)
Other operating expenses (3,073) (3,274) (6,668) (7,329)
OPERATING PROFIT 9,077 9,589 42,162 40,885
Finance income 456 1,191 1,026 1,598
Finance costs (436) (402) (742) (782)
Net finance income and costs 20 789 284 816
Profit (loss) from associates under the equity method (39) 22 (49) (41)
PROFIT BEFORE TAX 9,058 10,400 42,397 41,742
Income tax income (expense) (5,117) (9,260) (5,010) (10,080)
PROFIT FOR THE PERIOD 3,941 1,140 37,387 31,662
Basic and diluted earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares, thousand 264,276 264,276 264,276 262,276
Basic earnings per share, € 0.015 0.004 0.14 0.12
Diluted earnings per share, € 0.015 0.004 0.14 0.12

Condensed consolidated interim statement of financial position

€ thousand 30 June
2024
31 December 2023 € thousand 30 June 2024 31 December 2023
ASSETS EQUITY
Non-current assets Equity and reserves attributable to shareholders of the parent
Property, plant and equipment 1,250,517 1,027,057 Share capital
Share premium
264,276
60,351
264,276
60,351
Statutory capital reserve 8,291 5,556
Intangible assets 59,808 59,891 Other reserves 166,296 163,451
Right-of-use assets 8,651 9,097 Foreign currency translation reserve (103) (162)
Prepayments for non-current assets 47,477 55,148 Retained earnings 230,620 223,718
Deferred tax assets 1,487 2,013 Total equity 729,731 717,190
Investments in associates 499 548 LIABILITIES
Non-current liabilities
Derivative financial instruments 5,772 5,054 Borrowings 532,860 454,272
Non-current receivables 1,026 0 Government grants 3,139 3,102
Total non-current assets 1,375,237 1,158,808 Non-derivative contract liability 12,412 12,412
Deferred tax liabilities 12,442 12,497
Other non-current liabilities 5,239 5,239
Current assets Provisions 7 8
Inventories 5,425 3,180 Total non-current liabilities 566,099 487,530
Trade receivables 6,207 8,618 Current liabilities
Borrowings 96,100 32,126
Other
trade
receivables
6,970 16,380 Trade payables 32,720 29,464
Prepayments 13,098 30,084 Other
payables
22,916 24,981
Derivative financial instruments 4,135 3,806 Provisions 2 6
Cash and cash equivalents 39,372 65,677 Non-derivative contract liability 2,876 5,674
154,614 92,251
75,207 127,745 Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale 0 4,952
Assets classified as held for sale 0 15,370 Total current liabilities 154,614 97,203
Total current assets 75,207 143,115 Total liabilities
Total equity and liabilities
720,713
1,450,444
584,733
1,301,923
Total assets 1,450,444 1,301,923

Condensed consolidated statement of cash flows


thousand
Q2
2024
Q2
2023
H1 2024 H1 2023
Cash
flows
from
operating
activities
Cash generated from operations 31,003 14,006 66,166 58,343
Interest and loan fees paid (3,944) (2,084) (12,441) (4,137)
Interest received 233 207 691 518
Income tax paid (871) (631) (871) (1,205)
Net cash generated from operating activities 26,421 11,498 53,545 53,519
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchase of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets (115,661) (69,907) (212,943) (149,480)
Acquisition
of a subsidiary
0 0 0 (6,174)
Proceeds from disposal of subsidiaries (net of cash and cash equivalents
transferred) 0 0 16,879 0
Net cash used in investing activities (115,661) (69,907) (196,064) (155,654)
Cash flows from financing activities
Proceeds from bank loans 125,000 90,000 155,000 90,000
Repayments of bank loans (4,080) (4,040) (13,092) (11,177)
Repayments of lease principal (147) (95) (205) (179)
Proceeds from realisation of interest rate swaps 599 0 2,260 0
Dividends
paid
(27,749) (54,969) 27,749 (54,969)
Net cash generated from (used in) financing activities 93,623 30,896 116,214 23,675
Net cash flow 4,383 (27,513) (26,305) (78,460)
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 34,989 80,509 65,677 131,456
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 39,372 52,996 39,372 52,996
Change in cash and cash equivalents 4,383 (27,513) (26,305) (78,460)

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