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EDP-Energias — Earnings Release 2017
Mar 2, 2018
1909_iss_2018-03-02_faa51cec-0881-4900-ad8a-cbde2f922170.pdf
Earnings Release
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EBITDA +6% at €3.99bn, benefiting from the gain on Naturgas disposal (+€0.5bn one-offs) Recurring EBITDA -5% to €3.52bn, penalised by severe drought in Iberian peninsula (-€0.3bn)
+0.6GW additions of wind and solar capacity
Efficiency savings of €141m (26% above 2017 target for OPEX IV Programme)
Net debt -13% or -€2.0bn YoY, to €13.9bn by Dec-17; Adjusted Net Debt/EBITDA 3.7x
Net interest costs -13% YoY (avg. cost of debt from 4.4% to 4.1%)
Net Profit +16% YoY to €1.11bn Recurring Net Profit -8% YoY to €845m
Dividend Per Share 2017: €0.19(1)
Full cash payment expected in May
| Previous Guidance | 4Q17 highlights | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring EBITDA |
€3.5-3.6bn | ▪ Low hydro impact in 4Q17: |
€3.52bn |
| Recurring Net Profit(1) |
€850-900m | ~€100m on recurring EBITDA | €845m |
| Net Debt | €14.0-14.5bn | ▪ €0.3bn VAT refund in Spain ▪ €0.6bn tariff deficit sales ▪ €0.3bn full cash in of 2017 TEI's |
€13.9bn |
Drought in Iberia implied recurring EBITDA and Net Profit at the low-end of the guidance range
(1) Assumes €69m of extraordinary energy tax in Portugal as non-recurring item
| Recurring EBITDA | YoY | Weight on Recurring EBITDA Key highlights |
|---|---|---|
| 39% EDPR |
+0.20bn +17% |
▪ +9% avg. capacity mostly US, Mexico and Brazil ▪ 1st farmdown in UK wind offshore project (CfD awarded in Sep-17) |
| 27% Regulated Networks Iberia |
-0.04bn -4% |
▪ Gas distribution: -€83m YoY, to €128m, following disposals in Jul/Oct-17 ▪ Electricity distribution +6% YoY (+€0.05bn) on efficiency and previous years adjustments |
| 17% EDP Brasil |
+0.08bn +14% +8% EUR, BRL |
▪ Benefitting from a more integrated hedging strategy in energy markets ▪ Forex: +7% impact |
| 17% Generation & Supply |
-0.41bn -42% |
▪ Hydro production vs. average hydro year: -€0.3bn in 2017 vs. +€0.05bn in 2016 ▪ Higher fuel costs (coal), adverse regulatory changes (end of CMECs, higher clawback levy) |
| -0.2bn -5% |
Renewables capacity growth, efficiency improvements and Brazil's good risk management mitigated severe drought and deconsolidation of gas networks in Iberia |
Negative impact on recurring EBITDA: ~€300m in 2017 (of which ~€100m in 4Q17)
(1) Source: REN; based on historical average of last 40 years; (2) Net production deviation vs. avg. hydro year : -7TWh in 2017; -2.4TWh in 4Q17; (3) Source: IPMA
| Change 2018 vs. 2017 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Distribution Regulated Revenues(1) |
-€0.15bn | ▪ ERSE's proposal Oct-13th ▪ Final figures annouced on Dec-15th ▪ Regulatory framework now stable for 2018-20 ▪ Focus on efficiency levers: grid losses, Opex, digitalisation |
| Clawback | -€0.06bn | ▪ Change in clawback levy since Aug-17 ▪ Questionable and disproportional level of taxes and levies justify the several ongoing appeals in courts |
Already reflected on earnings consensus
Growth on renewables and Brazil balanced with value crystallisation under a controlled financial leverage
(1) Net of TEIs; (2) Includes EDPR Capex in rest of the world; (3) Includes net investments at EDPR level in Brazil
Strong visibility on growth improving competitiveness of generation portfolio at attractive returns
(1) Based on attributable installed capacity in UK offshore (77% of 950MW) and France (43% of 992MW)
| Greenfield Transmission Lines |
▪ 5 transmission lines with 1,297km to be built until 2021/2022 ▪ Expected capex: R\$3.1bn (~€800m), expected ROE 12%-14% (real terms) ▪ Potential upside from funding costs and anticipation of construction schedule |
|---|---|
| Celesc | ▪ Distribution concession in Santa Catarina State ▪ Up to R\$0.4bn investment for 33.3% stake(1) at EV/RAB of 0.7x; involvement in management ▪ Potential upside from efficiency improvements and eventual privatisation process |
Portfolio restructuring: eventual consideration of small size opportunities
Track record on efficiency improvements; sound regulatory frameworks; favourable interest rate cycle
Focus on profitability and shareholder return with a firm commitment on dividend policy: €0.19/share as a floor (payout of 62% in 2017)
Installed capacity breakdown by technology: Dec-17 (GW, YoY Chg.)
(GWh, YoY Chg.)
Electricity Production breakdown by technology 2017
Installed Capacity +6% YoY: +1GW new hydro in Portugal; +0.6GW wind and solar (mostly US) Electricity production: -46% in hydro (-56% in Iberia) implied +29% thermal production (+30% in Iberia)
Avg. capacity increase driven by US, Mexico and Brazil
Positive impact from 1st farm down in UK wind offshore project
Electricity EBITDA +6% YoY on lower OPEX (-1% YoY) and adjustments from previous years
EDP Brasil Recurring EBITDA
(R\$m)
Integrated hedging strategy in energy markets
| 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|
| GSF (hydro volume) | Medium | Low |
| PLD (spot price) | Low | High |
| Distribution volume surplus | ||
| Gen. PPAs volume deficit | ||
| Gen. & Supply volume free |
Integrated and active management of contracted/uncontracted volumes all over the value chain
Recurring EBITDA Generation & Supply Iberia (€m)
| 2016 | 2017 | YoY | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -44% | 603 |
Avg. selling price to customers (€/MWh) |
63 | 62 | -1% | ||
| 1,067 | Hydro weight (%) | 45% | 22% | -23pp | |||
| Avg. fuel cost (gen. mix)(1) (€/MWh) |
20 | 34 | +70% | ||||
| Regulatory costs (€m) |
147 | 237 | +61% | ||||
| CMEC deviation revenues (€m) |
169 | 108 | -36% | ||||
| 2016 | 2017 | ||||||
| Strong increase of sourcing costs due to very weak hydro and higher fuel/regulatory costs | |||||||
| Avg. selling price to customers -1% YoY vs. Avg. fuel cost +70% YoY |
Operating costs 2017
Opex IV corporate-wide efficiency programme: €141m savings in 2017, 26% above target
16 (1) Excludes gas networks and HR restructuring costs; (2) Excluding gas networks; (3) Avg. IPC 2017 vs. 2017; (4) Avg. IPCA 2017 vs. 2016; (5) Measures taken until Sep-17
Net Interest Cost
(€m)
Marginal and average cost of debt
(%, 2016-2017)
Clear downward trend on marginal cost of debt: room for further decline in avg. cost of debt
17 (1) 4Q16 and 4Q17 net interest costs exclude non-recurring costs with debt repurchase programmes (2) Based on EDP 5Y bond yield in EUR, USD and CDI as at 31-Dec-16 and 31-Dec-17 multiplied by the proportion of debt denominated in EUR, USD and BRL, respectively
Financial Results & Associates: 2017 vs. 2016
(€m of net cost)
One-offs(1)
- Net interest costs: -13% YoY
- Lower revenues from regulatory receivables due to lower interest rates
- Lower capitalised interest following full commissioning of hydro plants in Portugal
- Other: Forex & energy derivatives (-€35m in 2017 vs. -€18m in 2016)
13% decline of interest costs partially offset by lower financial revenues and negative forex
18 (1) In 2017 (+€27m), including gain on sale of equity stake in REN (+€25m), debt prepayment costs and other (-€52m); in 2016 (-€137m) including impairment on BCP, S. Manoel and EDPR (-€74m), cost with debt prepayment (-€76m), +€11m gain on the sale of equity stake in Tejo Energia
Recurring net profit strongly penalised by extreme low hydro production in Iberia
(1) Restructuring costs (-€21m), regulatory-driven costs/provisions (-€61m); debt prepayment fees and others (-€33m); impact from US fiscal reform (+€44m)
Change in Net Debt: Dec-17 vs. Dec-16
(€bn)
Portfolio reshuffling improving Adj. Net Debt/EBITDA to 3.7x, even including negative hydro impact
(1) EBITDA - Maintenance capex - Interest paid - Income taxes + Chg. in work. capital excluding regulatory receivables; (2) Expansion capex, Net financial investments (incl. shareholder loans transferred in asset rotation deals), TEI proceeds, Chg. in work. capital from equip. suppliers; acquisitions and disposals; and changes in consolidation perimeter. (3) Net Debt ex-Reg Receivables and trailing recurring EBITDA
| Financial liquidity as of Dec-17 (€bn) |
EDP consolidated debt maturity profile as of Dec-17 (€bn) |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDP S.A., EDP Finance B.V. and Other EDP Brasil |
|||||||||
| Cash & Equivalents: | €2.4bn | Avg. Debt Maturity: 4.8Y | 4.8 | ||||||
| Available Credit Lines: | €4.2bn | 3.4 | |||||||
| on Oct-22(1) Revolving Credit Facility maturing |
€3.3bn | 2.3 | 2.0 | ||||||
| Other RCF's and Credit Lines | €0.9bn | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |||||
| 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||||||
| Total Liquidity | €6.6bn | 0.3 | |||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ≥2024 | |||
| 4Q17 main events |
€0.5bn 10Y bond issue @1.6% |
€0.6bn of tariff deficit securitization |
Repurchase of USD0.5bn of notes |
Completion of USD0.5bn of TEIs |
|||||
€6.6bn available liquidity by Dec-17 covers refinancing needs beyond 2019
21 (1) The maturity of a €3.3bn RCF was extended from Jun-19 to Oct-22 in Oct-17
IR Contacts
Miguel Viana, Head of IR Sónia Pimpão João Machado Maria João Matias Sérgio Tavares Noélia Rocha
E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +351 210012834
Visit EDP Website
Site: www.edp.com
Link Results & Presentations:
www.edp.com/en/investors/investor-information/results
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