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Earnings Release Nov 11, 2022

4145_ip_2022-11-11_8c8714e7-81e7-4307-ab2d-171a1cabcfd9.pdf

Earnings Release

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9M 2022 results

November 11th, 2022

Business Highlights Andrea Mangoni, CEO

Key highlights

Very strong financial performance in 9M 2022

Resilient collections despite GBV trend and macro headwinds

GBV intake in 2022 YTD

Projects Country Investor Date GBV Transaction overview
Neptune I Greece Fortress Q2 2022 €500m Servicing mandate from Fortress
Iccrea GACS 6 Italy Bayview & CRC Q2 2022 €650m GACS securitisation by Iccrea
Sky Cyprus Cerberus Q2 2022 €2.2bn Portfolio sale by Alpha Bank to Cerberus
Itaca Italy Bayview & CRC Q2 2022 €1.1bn GACS securitisation by UniCredit
Frontier II Greece Bracebridge Q4 2022 /
Q1 2023
€1.0bn HAPS securitisation from NBG
Virgo Greece EOS Group Q4 2022 €450m Secondary NPL sale from Frontier I,
doValue retaining servicing mandate
Nix Spain Fortress Q4 2022 €300m Servicing mandate from Fortress
Confidential Greece Confidential Q4 2022 €500m Confidential
Souq Greece Intrum To complete
in Q1 2023
€630m Secondary NPL sale from Cairo I and II (through
doLook), doValue retaining servicing mandate
Forward flows in 9M 2022 - - - €1.7bn Acceleration of forward flows in Q3 2022 vs H1 2022
Total c. €9bn Close to 70% done vs our €13-14bn target

Macro outlook

Material slowdown in GDP Inflation not fading away Increasing financing costs Persistently high levels of Stage 2 loans on banks

balance sheets (at c. 13-14% in Italy and Greece and 7% in Spain)

More limited room for manoeuvre by Governments to support the economy considering Debt / GDP levels

Corporate default rates have already increased by 13% as of Jun-22 (vs Dec-21) in Italy

Sources: EBA, Bloomberg, IMF World Economic Outlook (October 28th, 2022), Osservatorio NPE by CRIBIS Credit Management - Gruppo CRIF (October 24th, 2022)

Sizeable medium term pipeline

8 9M 2022 results

Financial Results Manuela Franchi, General Manager and CFO

Financial highlights

Item 9M 2021 9M 2022 Delta Comments
GBV €150bn €137bn -8.6%
Decrease in GBV mainly driven by disposals (mostly
indemnified) and Sareb NPL portfolio off-boarding
Sareb REO portfolio off-boarding finalised on October 1st, 2022
Collections €4.0bn €3.9bn -2.9%
Resilient Collections notwithstanding reduction in GBV

Stable Collection Rate YoY, with marginal improvement in Italy
Collection Rate 4.0% 4.0% flat (+0.1 p.p. vs Jun-22), stable in Hellenic Region (vs Jun-22)
and marginal decline in Iberia (-0.4 p.p. vs Jun-22) driven by
Sareb NPL offboarding
Gross Revenues €385.9m €425.5m +10.3% Increase in Gross Revenues mainly driven by strong NPL and

REO performance, more favourable GBV mix and higher
Net Revenues €338.8m €380.0m +12.2% revenues from ancillary activities
EBITDA ex NRIs €116.1m €151.9m +30.8% Increase in EBITDA due to growth in Gross Revenues and HR

cost discipline
EBITDA ex NRIs margin 30.1% 35.7% +5.6 p.p. Limited NRIs at c. €2.4m at EBITDA level

Increase in Attributable Net Income ex NRIs driven by EBITDA
Attributable Net Income ex NRIs €22.7m €45.6m +101.2% growth, lower D&A, lower provisions partially compensated by
higher taxes and minorities
Net Debt €432.0m €422.8m -2.1%
Decrease in Financial Leverage in the last 12 months driven by
both growth in EBITDA and reduction in Net Debt
Financial Leverage 2.6x 1.8x -0.8x
Strong operating cash flow generation in the last 12 months
partially compensated by doTransformation
Capex, BidX1
acquisition and dividend payment in May-22

Gross Book Value

Gross Book Value (€bn)

  • Forward flows: €1.7bn (acceleration in Q3 2022 vs H1 2022)
  • New mandates (onboarded in 9M 2022): €8.3bn (mainly related to Project Frontier in Greece, two GACS in Italy and Marina portfolio in Cyprus)
  • Collections / Sales: €3.9bn with Collection Rate of 4.0%
  • Net write-offs: €3.2bn (split c. 55% collection / c. 45% write-off)
  • Disposals: €5.0bn (mainly related to Italian and Spanish portfolios, for most disposals indemnity fee received)
  • Mandates secured and not yet onboarded as of Sep-22: €4.0bn
  • c. €1.5bn in Greece (including Frontier II for €1.0bn), €2.2bn in Cyprus from Cerberus (Project Sky), €300m in Spain from Fortress (Project Nix)
  • Sareb NPL €10bn portfolio already off-boarded as of July 1st, 2022. Sareb REO €11bn portfolio off-boarded on October 1st, 2022

Gross Revenues

Gross Revenues growth at +10%

  • Double digit growth of NPL servicing and ancillary revenues
  • High single digit growth in REO servicing

Italy Gross Revenues growth at +3%

  • Net of €4m Relais capital gain in Q1 2021, growth of +7%
  • Revenue growth mainly driven by UTP & ancillary activities

Hellenic Region Gross Revenues growth at +43%

  • Strong growth in NPL, REO and ancillary revenues
  • Lower UTP / Early Arrears revenues due to Mexico securitisation

Iberia Gross Revenues decline at -18%

  • Double digit GBV decline
  • Revenue decline mainly driven by NPL activity due to Sareb off-boarding
  • Resilient REO performance
  • Reduction in outsourcing fees as % of Gross Revenues
  • Partly driven by insourcing in Italy

Operating Expenses

Operating Expenses ex NRIs (€m) Comments

Reduction in OpEx as % of Gross Revenues (from 58% to 54%) - Increase in EBITDA margin (from 30.1% from 35.7%)

Growth in OpEx by +2% in absolute terms

  • Mainly driven by increase in IT and SG&A costs linked to doTransformation and Iberia re-organization

Lower HR costs as a % of Gross Revenues (from 41% to 37%)

  • Flat HR costs in absolute terms
  • Strong effort in containing HR costs in Italy
  • HR reorganisation in Spain ongoing
  • Increase in FTEs related to Frontier driving increase in costs in Greece

Stable IT and SG&A costs as % of Gross Revenues (at 15%)

  • Absolute increase of 10% mainly related to the transformation projects
  • Stable Real Estate costs as % of Gross Revenues (at 1%)

doTransformation plan update

EBITDA

EBITDA ex NRIs increase by +31%

  • Italy EBITDA ex NRIs growth at +26%
  • Excluding €4m Relais capital gain in 9M 2021 growth of +46%
  • Revenue growth compounded by HR cost discipline, partially compensated by increase in other operating costs

Hellenic Region EBITDA ex NRIs growth at +77%

  • Strong revenue growth partially compensated by increased costs
  • OpEx increase mainly related to Frontier FTE integration

Iberia EBITDA ex NRIs decrease by -90%

  • Reduction in Gross Revenues of -18%
  • Reduction in HR costs linked to Sareb reorganisation
  • Increase in OpEx mainly related to doTransformation project

Regional Performance (9M 2022)

doValue
Group
Italy Hellenic
Region
Iberia
Gross Book Value €137bn €72bn €38bn €26bn
Collections €3.9bn €1.2bn
(31% of tot)
€1.1bn
(29% of tot)
€1.6bn
(40% of tot)
Collection Rate 4.0% 2.6% 5.0% 6.7%
Gross Revenues €426m €133m
(31% of total)
€193m
(45% of total)
€100m
(24% of total)
EBITDA ex NRIs €152m €35m
(23% of total)
€115m
(76% of total)
€2m
(1% of total)
EBITDA margin
ex NRIs
36% 26% 60% 2%

Note:

1) Collection Rate in Iberia for the last months impacted by the off-boarding of the Sareb NPL portfolio on July 1st, 2022

16 9M 2022 results

Net Income

17 9M 2022 results

Cash Flow in 9M 2022 (€m)

9M 2022 9M 2021
EBITDA €149.6m €115.9m
Capex €(13.7)m €(12.6)m
Adj. for accrual on share based payments €4.8m €1.5m
Delta NWC €(7.5)m €(21.0)m
Delta other assets and liabilities €(69.3)m €(35.6)m
Taxes €(25.4)m €(6.1)m
Financial charges €(20.2)m €(24.4)m
Financial assets divestments / (investments) €2.4m €21.1m
Tax Claim in Spain - €(33.0)m
Share buy back (LTI) - €(4.6)m
Dividends paid to minorities €(5.0)m €(2.5)m
Dividends paid to doValue shareholders €(36.8)m €(20.1)m
Net Cash Flow €(21.0)m €(21.4)m

Strong cash flow generation of €38m in Q3 2022

  • Compared to cash absorption of €59m in H1 2022
  • Overall cash absorption of €21m in 9M 2022
  • Marginal increase in Capex in 9M 2022 (vs 9M 2021) related to doTransformation plan
  • Minor cash absorption due to NWC of €8m in 9M 2022 (vs €38m in H1 2022) mainly due to more favourable payment timing from customers in Sep-22 vs Jun-22
  • Cash absorption due to change in other asset & liabilities of €69m (vs €45m in H1 2022) mainly driven by portion of Eurobank 9M 2022 fees already paid in 2021 and accounted in 2022 as well as leasing payments (below EBITDA), VAT payments and redundancies (below EBITDA, including €6m related to Sareb reorganisation costs)
  • Tax reflecting profitability of previous year (higher profit in 2021 vs 2020)
  • Dividend payment to shareholders of €36.8m (€0.50 dividend per share translates into €39.5m total dividend and €2.7m dividend yet to be claimed by shareholders)

Financial Structure

Net Debt (€m) Comments
2.0x
Net Debt /
EBITDA
1.8x
Net Debt /
EBITDA
Significant liquidity position with no maturities before 2025

-
Approx. €160m cash position as of Sep-22

All bond debt structure
-
€265m issued in Aug-20 (5.0% coupon, 2025 maturity)
-
€300m bond issued in Jul-21 (3.375% coupon, 2026 maturity)
402
300
423
298
-
Standard & Poor's: BB rating and Stable outlook
-
Fitch: BB rating and Positive outlook
261 260
Leverage at 1.8x as of Sep-22 (vs 2.0x as of Dec-21)
-
Below lower end of leverage target range of 2.0-3.0x
8
(167)
25
(160)
Approx. €130m of total gross credit lines

-
Pool of Italian, Spanish and Greek banks
Dec-21 Sep-22
Cash
Bank Debt
Bond 2025
Bond 2026

Closing Remarks Andrea Mangoni, CEO

Confirmed guidance for 2022

Item Actual Results
2021
Guidance
2022
Comments
Gross Revenues €572m €555-565m
Growth of c. 4% excluding Sareb and gains on Relais
/ Mexico
EBITDA ex NRIs €201m
(35% margin)
€190-195m
(34% margin)
Growth of c. 13% excluding Sareb and gains on Relais
/ Mexico
Attributable Net Income ex NRIs €51m €45-50m
Reflecting marginal reduction in EBITDA vs 2021
Financial Leverage 2.0x
at the end of 2021
~ 2.2x
at the end of 2022

Limited cash flow generation expected in Q4 due to
doTransformation
Capex and other one-off items and
normalisation of LTM EBITDA by year-end vs Sep-22
Dividend per Share1 €0.50 per share
(paid in May-22)
€0.60 per share1 In line with Business Plan 2022-2024 target of at least 20%

CAGR in Dividend per Share in 2021-2024

Potential upside on Attributable Net Income ex NRI range

Note:

1) Dividend per Share for 2022 subject to Board of Directors approval as well as to Shareholders approval

21 9M 2022 results

Appendix

Management income statement

Condensed Income Statement (€ '000) 9/30/2022 9/30/2021 Change € Change %
Servicing Revenues: 390,305 355,806 34,499 10%
o/w: NPE revenues 326,188 296,968 29,220 10%
o/w: REO revenues 64,117 58,838 5,279 9%
Co-investment revenues 1,141 4,186 (3,045) (73)%
Ancillary and other revenues 34,083 25,887 8,196 32%
Gross revenues 425,529 385,879 39,650 10%
NPE Outsourcing fees (16,111) (22,401) 6,290 (28)%
REO Outsourcing fees (19,514) (16,898) (2,616) 15%
Ancillary Outsourcing fees (9,891) (7,748) (2,143) 28%
Net revenues 380,013 338,832 41,181 12%
Staff expenses (158,580) (159,365) 785 (0)%
Administrative expenses (71,871) (63,566) (8,305) 13%
Total "o.w. IT" (25,578) (21,429) (4,149) 19%
Total "o.w. Real Estate" (5,161) (4,966) (195) 4%
Total "o.w. SG&A" (41,132) (37,171) (3,961) 11%
Operating expenses (230,451) (222,931) (7,520) 3%
EBITDA 149,562 115,901 33,661 29%
EBITDA margin 35% 30% 5% 17%
Non-recurring items included in EBITDA (2,357) (236) (2,121) n.s.
EBITDA excluding non-recurring items 151,919 116,137 35,782 31%
EBITDA margin excluding non-recurring items 36% 30% 6% 19%
Net write-downs on property, plant, equipment and intangibles (47,919) (57,978) 10,059 (17)%
Net provisions for risks and charges (7,317) (8,894) 1,577 (18)%
Net write-downs of loans 265 429 (164) (38)%
Profit (loss) from equity investments - 83 (83) (100)%
EBIT 94,591 49,541 45,050 91%
Net income (loss) on financial assets and liabilities measured at fair value (1,170) 615 (1,785) n.s.
Net financial interest and commissions (21,279) (25,676) 4,397 (17)%
EBT 72,142 24,480 47,662 n.s.
Non-recurring items included in EBT (8,490) (12,727) 4,237 (33)%
EBT excluding non-recurring items 80,632 37,207 43,425 117%
Income tax for the period (22,984) (7,034) (15,950) n.s.
Profit (Loss) for the period 49,158 17,446 31,712 n.s.
Profit (loss) for the period attributable to Non-controlling interests (9,977) (4,609) (5,368) 116%
Profit (Loss) for the period attributable to the Shareholders of the Parent Company 39,181 12,837 26,344 n.s.
Non-recurring items included in Profit (loss) for the period (6,849) (10,284) 3,435 (33)%
O.w. Non-recurring items included in Profit (loss) for the period attributable to Non-controlling interest (400) (438) 38 (9)%
Profit (loss) for the period attributable to the Shareholders of the Parent Company excluding non-recurring items 45,630 22,683 22,947 101%
Profit (loss) for the period attributable to Non-controlling interests excluding non-recurring items 10,377 5,047 5,330 106%
Earnings per share (in Euro) 0.50 0.16 0.33 n.s.
Earnings per share excluding non-recurring items (Euro) 0.58 0.29 0.29 102%

Management balance sheet

Condensed Balance Sheet (€ '000) 9/30/2022 12/31/2021 Change Change %
Cash and liquid securities 159,518 166,668 (7,150) (4)%
Financial assets 58,459 61,961 (3,502) (6)%
Property, plant and equipment 34,116 34,204 (88) (0)%
Intangible assets 529,596 545,225 (15,629) (3)%
Tax assets 150,756 152,996 (2,240) (1)%
Trade receivables 197,849 206,326 (8,477) (4)%
Assets held for sale 10 30 (20) (67)%
Other assets 15,683 17,226 (1,543) (9)%
Total Assets 1,145,987 1,184,636 (38,649) (3)%
Financial liabilities: due to banks/bondholders 582,297 568,459 13,838 2%
Other financial liabilities 73,481 76,017 (2,536) (3)%
Trade payables 57,775 73,710 (15,935) (22)%
Tax liabilities 105,001 113,060 (8,059) (7)%
Employee termination benefits 8,836 10,264 (1,428) (14)%
Provisions for risks and charges 37,196 44,235 (7,039) (16)%
Other liabilities 78,278 104,888 (26,610) (25)%
Total Liabilities 942,864 990,633 (47,769) (5)%
Share capital 41,280 41,280 - n.s.
Reserves 84,947 96,299 (11,352) (12)%
Treasury shares (4,340) (4,678) 338 (7)%
Profit (loss) for the period attributable to the Shareholders
of the Parent Company 39,181 23,744 15,437 65%
Net Equity attributable to the Shareholders of the
Parent Company
161,068 156,645 4,423 3%
Total Liabilities and Net Equity attributable to the
Shareholders of the Parent Company 1,103,932 1,147,278 (43,346) (4)%
Net Equity attributable to Non-Controlling Interests 42,055 37,358 4,697 13%
Total Liabilities and Net Equity 1,145,987 1,184,636 (38,649) (3)%

Management cash flow

Condensed Cash Flow (€ '000) 9/30/2022 9/30/2021 12/31/2021
EBITDA 149,562 115,901 199,347
Capex (13,733) (12,648) (29,640)
EBITDA-Capex 135,829 103,253 169,707
as % of EBITDA 91% 89% 85%
Adjustment for accrual on share-based incentive
system payments
4,810 1,547 1,027
Changes in NWC (Net Working Capital) (7,458) (21,002) (9,285)
Changes in other assets/liabilities (69,263) (35,562) (21,340)
Operating Cash Flow 63,918 48,236 140,109
Corporate Income Tax paid (25,368) (6,149) (12,827)
Financial charges (20,200) (24,406) (31,220)
Free Cash Flow 18,350 17,681 96,062
(Investments)/divestments in financial assets 2,428 21,096 (26,489)
Tax claim payment - (32,981) (32,981)
Treasury shares buy-back - (4,603) (4,603)
Dividends paid to minority shareholders (5,002) (2,502) (2,502)
Dividends paid to Group shareholders (36,763) (20,093) (20,722)
Net Cash Flow of the period (20,987) (21,402) 8,765
Net financial Position -
Beginning of period
(401,791) (410,556) (410,556)
Net financial Position -
End of period
(422,778) (431,958) (401,791)
Change in Net Financial Position (20,987) (21,402) 8,765

Gross Book Value and Gross Revenues (1 of 2)

Note:1) Gross Revenues including Servicing Revenues only

Gross Book Value and Gross Revenues (2 of 2)

27 9M 2022 results

Collections resilience through cycles

Glossary

BPO Business Process Outsourcing, i.e. the outsourcing of non-strategic support activities by banks
Early Arrears Loans that are up to 90 days past due
Forward Flows Agreement with commercial bank related to the management of all future NPL generation by the bank for number of years, customary
feature of credit servicing
platforms spun off by commercial banks
FTE Full Time Equivalent, i.e. a unit that indicates the workload of an employed person in a way that makes workloads comparable across various contexts
GACS Garanzia Cartolarizzazione Sofferenze, i.e. the State Guarantee scheme put together by the Italian Government in 2016 which favoured the creation of a more liquid
NPL market in Italy and allowed banks to more easily deconsolidate NPL portfolios through securitisations
GBV Gross Book Value, i.e. nominal value of assets under management by doValue, represents the maximum / nominal claim by banks /
investors to borrowers on their
portfolios
HAPS Hercules Asset Protection Scheme, i.e. the State Guarantee scheme put together by the Greek Government in 2019 with the aim of favouring the creation of a more
liquid NPL market in Greece and to allow banks to more easily deconsolidate NPL portfolios through securitisations
NPE Non-Performing Exposure, i.e. the aggregate od NPL, UTP and Early Arrears
NPL Non-Performing Loan, i.e. loans which are more than 180 days past due and have been denounced
NRI Non-Recurring Items, i.e. costs or revenues which are non-recurring by nature (typically encountered in M&A or refinancing transactions)
Performing
Loans
Loans which do not present problematic features in terms of principal / interest repayment by borrowers
REO Real Estate Owned, i.e. real estate assets owned by a bank / investor as part of a repossession act
UTP Unlikely to Pay, i.e. loans that are between 90-180 days past due and denounced or more than 180 past due and not denounced

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This Presentation has been prepared based on the information currently available to us and is based on certain key underlying assumptions. The information contained in this Presentation has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of doValue its subsidiaries or any of their respective employees, advisers, representatives or affiliates shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss however arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this Presentation. The information contained in this Presentation is provided as at the date of this Presentation and is subject to change without notice.

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Forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation and, in particular, in any relevant guidance, regarding trends or current activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. Actual outcomes, results and other future events may differ materially from those expressed or implied by the statements and guidance contained herein. Such differences may adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein and may result from, among other things, changes in economic, business, competitive, technological, strategic or regulatory factors and other factors affecting the business and operations of the company. Estimated and assumptions are inherently uncertain and are subject to risks that are outside of the company's control. Any guidance and statement refers to events and depend upon circumstances that may or may not verify in the future and refer only as of the date hereof. Neither doValue S.p.A. nor any of its affiliates is under any obligation, and each such entity expressly disclaims any such obligation, to update, revise or amend any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

You should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements and or guidance, which speak only as of the date of this Presentation. The inclusion of the projections herein should not be regarded as an indication that the doValue considers the latter to be a reliable prediction of future events and the projections should not be relied upon as such. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results and such differences may be material. It should be noted that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Please also note that interim results are not necessarily indicative of full-year results.

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Certification pursuant article 154 BIS, paragraph 2 of Italian Legislative Decree no. 58 of 24 February 1998 (the Consolidated Financial Law)

Pursuant to Article 154 bis, paragraph 2, of the "Consolidated Law on Finance", Mr Davide Soffietti, in his capacity as the Financial Reporting Officer with preparing the financial reports of doValue S.p.A, certifies that the accounting information contained in this document, is consistent with the data in the supporting documents and the Group's books of accounts and other accounting records.

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Name: Alberto Goretti (Head of Investor Relations) Tel: +39 02 83460127 E-mail: [email protected]

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