AI assistant
Deutsche EuroShop AG — Call Transcript 2021
Mar 24, 2021
104_ip_2021-03-24_6c1ab4f1-6d22-4788-afa9-aa76cf2bbb03.pdf
Call Transcript
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
CONFERENCE CALL Preliminary Results FY 2020
24 MARCH 2021
Update on Business Activities - Summary
- Operations
- Continued "hard" lockdowns with substantial negative impact on frequencies and tenant turnovers for almost all centers
- Footfall numbers (February 2021): approx. 34% of normal levels
- Quick recovery of footfall numbers after shop reopenings to levels of 60 to 80% (with strong restrictions still in place; e.g. masks)
- Tenant turnover 2020 (full year): -22.8% (substantial deviations among segments)
Rents
- Collection ratio 2020 (after rent concessions): 89% (January/February 2021: approx. 60%)
- Negotiations with tenants concerning (temporary) relief measures for lock down periods continuing:
- Change in law in Germany strengthened the legal position of tenants for periods of shop closings
- Co-operative approach to find and agree on sustainable commercial solutions
- Tenant insolvencies since start of corona pandemic: c. 8.9% of DES rents (last reported: 7.3%)
- most of the affected tenants target restructuring of business activities
Update on Business Activities - Summary
- Financials & Liquidity
- Solid cash position DES Group: €266m (30 December 2020)
- Signing of credit line facility of €150m (until 2024) in January 2020
- Negotiations of three loan prolongations ongoing (€118m becoming due in June/July 2021)
- Continued trustful and cooperative talks with current banking partners
- Dividend proposal: mandatory minimum dividend of 4 cent/share for 2020 for prudent liquidity management reasons (given ongoing hard lockdown for most part of the portfolio)
- No forecast possible for FY 2021 due to unpredictable development of pandemic:
- impact on the economy, customer behaviour, retail turnovers and special tenant arrangements
- CEO Appointment
- The Supervisory Board has extended the appointment of Wilhelm Wellner until 30 June 2025
Current Regulations in DES' Markets *
Germany
- Step -by -step Lockdown – until 18 Apr. 2021
- F&B only for take away
- Several local regulations depending on the incidence value (<50: limited customers per sqm; <100: click and meet)
Austria
- Soft Lockdown – since 8 Feb. 2021
- F&B only for take away
- 1 customer per 20 sqm, shops have to close at 7 pm
- Curfew and restrictions (FFP2 masks, shop staff has to be tested every 7 days)
Hard Lockdown – until 28 Mar. 2021 Czech Republic
- F&B only for take away
- Curfew and restrictions
Hungary
- Hard Lockdown until 29 Mar. 2021
- Entertainment and fitness closed
- F&B only for take away
- Curfew and restrictions
Poland
- Hard Lockdown until 9 Apr. 2021
- F&B only for take away
- Entertainment and fitness closed
- Curfew and local restrictions
Corona Impact – Footfall
Development of the daily frequency / average of respective month in the previous year
6
Corona Impact – Retail Turnover
Development of retail turnover of centers in Germany 2020 compared to the previous year
Retail turnover 20201
| RETAIL SECTOR | % change in 2020 |
rent-to-sales ratio in % |
occupancy cost ratio (OCR) in % |
% of sales2 |
% of space2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEPARTMENT STORES & HYPERMARKETS | -19.2 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 15.5 |
| FOOD | -14.1 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 |
| FASHION TEXTILES | -29.4 | 16.3 | 21.8 | 26.1 | 38. |
| SHOES & LEATHER GOODS | -33.0 | 19.8 | 26.3 | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| SPORTS | -23.4 | 12.5 | 17.0 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| HEALTH & BEAUTY | -16.9 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 15.8 | 7.3 |
| GENERAL RETAIL | -17.9 | 13.3 | 17.2 | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| ELECTRONICS | -12.4 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 17.0 | 8.2 |
| SERVICES | -59.0 | 14.1 | 17.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| FOOD CATERING | -37.5 | 18.8 | 24.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| TOTAL | -22.7 | 11.1 | 14.7 | 1003 | 1003 |
| Germany | Abroad | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail turnover development on a like-for-like basis: |
-22.7% | -11.1% | -21.7% |
| Absolute retail turnover development: |
-26.4% | -24.3% | -26.0% |
1 German centers on a like-for-like basis (turnover 2020: €1.2 billion)
2 Not all tenants reported punctually due to Covid-19, so the figures are not fully comparable with historical ones. 3 The sum may not equal the totals due to rounding
7
SHOPPING CENTERS
Corona Impact – Collection Rates 20201
1 after rent concessions
Tenant Structure: Top 10 Tenants1
| 2020 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|
| H&M | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| Peek & Cloppenburg | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Ceconomy | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| New Yorker | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| Deichmann | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| C&A | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Douglas | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| DM | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Thalia | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| Bestseller | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Total | 20.8% | 21.0% |
LOW LEVEL OF DEPENDENCE ON THE TOP 10 TENANTS
TOP 10 Tenants
1 in % of total retail rents as at 31 December 2020
Maturity Distribution of Rental Contracts1
1 as % of rental income as at 31 December 2020
Valuation1 – Investment Properties 2020
| in € thousand | 2020 | 2019 | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revaluation | -400,204 | -88,560 | -311,644 |
| Revaluation at-equity | -73,786 | -25,854 | -47,932 |
| Impairment Goodwill | -2,008 | 0 | -2,008 |
| Minority interest | 46,367 | -5,628 | 51,995 |
| Valuation result before taxes | -429,631 | -120,042 | -309,589 |
| Deferred taxes | 76,730 | 21,235 | 55,495 |
| Valuation result after taxes2 | -352,901 | -98,807 | -254,094 |
5.89 5.92 5.98 5.97 5.87 5.46 5.24 5.23 5.32 5.43 5.73 5.61 5.64 5.7 5.69 5.53 5.13 4.94 4.93 5.01 5.12 5.41 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Net operating yield in % Net initial yield in %
Valuation of Investment Properties influenced by:
- Increase of Net Initial Yields (NIY) for shopping centers due to limited demand and fewer market transactions and change of risk profile (Corona impact)
- Adjusted expectations for market rents and reletting periods
- Expected higher investments for center positioning and reletting
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
| IN € THOUSAND | Basis | change of -25bps | change of +25bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent increase rates | 1.00% | -105,700 | +161,900 |
| Discount rate | 6.07% | +72,200 | -67,800 |
| Capitalization rate |
5.25% | +118,600 | -103,400 |
| Basis | change of -100bps | change of +100bps | |
| Cost ratio | 12.00% | +41,200 | -40,700 |
1 External appraisers: JLL (since 2015) 2 Attributable to group shareholders
12
Revenues - Effected by Corona-Legislation and Accounting Change
- Decrease in revenues to €224.1m (-3.2%)
- Influenced by the situation in Poland: Temporary legal suspension of rents based on a new law to cushion the effects of the pandemic (-€3.2m)
1In 2020, there was a change in the disclosure of revenue with an adjustment of the prior-year figures for 2019. The property tax and building insurance charges are no longer reported on a net basis. As a consequence the revenues (as well as the operating costs) were increased by €5.7m (2020) and €5.6m (2019) leaving the NOI unchanged. A comparison with the years 2016 to 2018 is therefore only possible to a limited extent. 2 "look through" (calculated on the basis of the group share) 3 consolidated
FINANCIALS
EBIT - Strong impact from Corona Rent Concessions and Insolvencies
EBIT
in € million
EBIT bridge 2020
in € million
- EBIT decreased to €161.2m (-18.3%)
- Decline due to higher allowances and write of rent receivables (€ -27.5m) and the Corona-related decline in revenues
- Allowances estimated based on actual or expected losses in connection of tenant support measures and insolvencies
- Effect of first lock down on business years due to straight line accounting method approx. 2021: €-1.9m, 2022: €-0.8m, 2023 follow.: €-2.8m
| in € thousand | 01.01. – 31.12.2020 |
01.01. – 31.12.2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 224,104 | 231,487 |
| Operating and administrative costs for property |
-28,288 | -28,301 |
| Allowance and write-off of receivables | -29,218 | -1,674 |
| NOI | 166,598 | 201,512 |
| Other operating income | 2,400 | 1,915 |
| Other operating expenses | -7,759 | -5,958 |
| EBIT | 161,239 | 197,469 |
Financial Result1 - Further Improvement
Financial result1
in € million
Financial result bridge 20201
- Financial result slightly increased (€+0.7m).
- Interest expenses reduced by €5.6m due to favourable refinancings (Rhein-Neckar-Zentrum Viernheim and A10 Center Wildau)
- At-equity operating profit1 decreased by €7.6m due to a Corona-related decline in revenues and higher allowances in the joint venture companies
- Other financial income in the prior year was influenced by an exceptional one-off interest income2 of €2.2m
- Minority result declined due to corona-impact (€+4.9m)
| in € thousand | 01.01. – 31.12.2020 |
01.01. – 31.12.2019 |
|---|---|---|
| At-equity profit/loss | -51,482 | 4,345 |
| Valuation (at equity) | 73,786 | 25,854 |
| Deferred taxes (at equity) | 717 | 417 |
| At-equity (operating) profit/loss | 23,021 | 30,616 |
| Interest expense | -43,716 | -49,256 |
| Profit/loss attributable to limited partners | -13,501 | -18,443 |
| Other financial result (incl, swaps) | 547 | 2,745 |
| Financial result1 | -33,649 | -34,338 |
1 excluding valuation 2 relating to an tax refund for previous years
EBT1 Burdened by the Impact of the Corona-Pandemic
EBT1
(€-35.5m) due lower operating results
- Interest savings with positive impact (€+5.6m)
- One-off interest income in relation to tax refunds in 2019 as extraordinary and one-off influence factor
| in € thousand | 01.01. – 31.12.2020 |
01.01. – 31.12.2019 |
|---|---|---|
| EBIT | 161,239 | 197,469 |
| Financial result1 | -33,649 | -34,338 |
| EBT1 | 127,590 | 163,131 |
EBT1 bridge 2020 in € million
1 excluding valuation
EPRA Earnings
EPRA earnings
in € million (per share in €)
- EPRA earnings declined by €33.8m to €124.5m
- tax refunds and related interest income as extraordinary and one-off influence factor in the prior year (€9.0m3)
- EPRA Earnings per share decreased from €2.56 (€2.41 excl. one-offs) to €2.02
| EPRA EARNINGS | 01.01. – | 31.12.2020 | 01.01. – 31.12.2019 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in € thousand | per share in € |
in € thousand | per share in € |
|
| Consolidated profit | -251,717 | -4.07 | 112,091 | 1.81 |
| Valuation investment properties1 | 427,623 | 6.92 | 120,042 | 1.94 |
| Valuation derivative financial instruments1 |
-88 | 0.00 | -350 | 0.00 |
| Impairment Goodwill | 2,008 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Deferred taxes in respect of EPRA adjustments2 |
-53,290 | -0.86 | -73,523 | -1.19 |
| EPRA Earnings | 124,536 | 2.02 | 158,260 | 2.56 |
| Weighted number of no-par-value shares issued |
61,783,594 | 61,783,594 |
1 including the share attributable to equity-accounted joint ventures and associates
2 affects deferred taxes on investment properties and derivative financial instruments
3 including the tax expense attributable to the interest refund
4 excluding one-offs related to tax refund and related interest income for previous years
17
Consolidated Result – Dominated by Negative Valuation Result
Consolidated profit bridge 2020
in € million
Consolidated result decreased in total by €-363.8m. The following effects are included in that change:
- Reduced result from standing assets (€-35.5m)
- Valuation result with dominating impact (€-254.1m)
- One-off prior year release of deferred taxes (€-73.4m) and tax refunds (€-9.0m1)
- Smaller changes due to other deferred taxes
Earnings per share decreased from €1.81 to €-4.07
Development of Funds From Operations (FFO)
FFO
in € million (per share in €)
Funds From Operations (FFO) are used to finance the distribution of dividends, scheduled repayments on our long-term bank loans and ongoing investments in portfolio properties.
- FFO of €123.3m declined to previous years level (€149.6m), mainly influenced by corona-related lower revenues and higher allowances for rent receivables
- FFO per share decreased from €2.42 to €2.00
- FFO to be analysed in conjunction with cash collection ratios (€1.80) (€1.81)
| FUNDS FROM OPERATIONS | 01.01. – | 31.12.2020 | 01.01. – 31.12.2019 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in € thousand | per share in € |
in € thousand | per share in € |
|
| Consolidated profit | -251,717 | -4.07 | 112,091 | 1.81 |
| Valuation investment properties1 | 427,623 | 6.92 | 120,042 | 1.94 |
| Tax refund for previous years2 | 0 | 0.00 | -8,994 | -0.15 |
| Impairment Goodwill | 2,008 | 0.03 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Deferred taxes1 | -54,591 | -0.88 | -73,548 | -1.18 |
| FFO | 123,323 | 2.00 | 149,591 | 2.42 |
| Weighted number of no-par-value shares issued |
61,783,594 | 61,783,594 |
1 including the share attributable to equity-accounted joint ventures and associates 2 including the tax expense attributable to the interest refund
FINANCIALS
Balance sheet: Solid and Robust Structure
BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE
in € million
- Equity ratio stands at a solid 54.6%
- LTV decreased to 32.9% ("look-through" 35.8%3) due to devaluation of properties
- Group Liquidity: €266m (€236m excl. short term credit line)
BALANCE SHEET AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2020
| 31.12.2020 | 31.12.2019 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 3,933,724 | 4,388,455 | -454,731 |
| 266,030 | 148,087 | 117,943 |
| 37,627 | 22,063 | 15,564 |
| 4,237,381 | 4,558,605 | -321,224 |
| 2,003,246 | 2,249,573 | -246,327 |
| 311,525 | 351,905 | -40,380 |
| 2,314,771 | 2,601,478 | -286,707 |
| 1,541,428 | 1,512,347 | 29,081 |
| 324,978 | 378,755 | -53,777 |
| 56,204 | 66,025 | -9,821 |
| 4,237,381 | 4,558,605 | -321,224 |
| 54.6% | 57.1% | |
| 32.9% | 31.5% | |
| 35.8% | 33.7% | |
1 including third-party interest in equity
2 ratio of net financial liabilities (financial liabilities less cash and cash equivalents) to non current assets (investment properties and investments accounted for using the equity method). 3 ratio of net financial liabilities to long-term assets, calculated on the basis of the group share
EPRA NTA
in € million (per share in €)
- EPRA NTA decreased to €37.38 (-11.6%) due to lower property values
- Share price discount to NTA: 53% (22 March 2021)
| EPRA NTA | 01.01. – | 31.12.2020 | 01.01. – | 31.12.2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in € thousand | per share in € |
in € thousand | per share in € |
|
| Equity | 2,003,246 | 32.42 | 2,249,573 | 36.41 |
| Derivative financial instruments measured at fair value1 |
26,138 | 0.42 | 33,726 | 0.55 |
| Equity excluding derivative financial instruments |
2,029,384 | 32.84 | 2,283,299 | 36.96 |
| Deferred taxes on investment properties and derivative financial instruments1 |
332,059 | 5.38 | 383,818 | 6.21 |
| Intangible assets | -13 | 0.00 | -25 | 0.00 |
| Goodwill as a result of deferred taxes | -51,719 | -0.84 | -53,727 | -0.87 |
| EPRA NTA | 2,309,711 | 37.38 | 2,613,365 | 42.30 |
| Weighted number of no-par-value shares issued |
61,783,594 | 61,783,594 |
Key Figures
1 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 2016 – 2020
Interest Rate Structure1,2
| INTEREST LOCKIN |
DURATION | PRINCIPLE AMOUNTS (€ MILLION) |
SHARE OF TOTAL LOAN |
AVG. INTEREST RATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 1 year | 116.0 | 7.5% | 2.82% | |
| 1 to 5 years | 2.7 | 532.5 | 34.5% | 2.85% |
| 5 to 10 years | 7.7 | 828.3 | 53.8% | 2.12% |
| Over 10 years | 11.0 | 65.2 | 4.2% | 1.18% |
| Total1 | 5.1 | 1,542.0 | 100% | 2.18% |
1
- 19 German and 4 foreign bank partners
- Weighted maturity of fixed interest periods 5.1 years1
Loan Maturities until 20261,2
| IN € MILLION | END OF FIXED INTEREST PERIODS RESPECTIVELY EXPIRING LOANS |
AVG. INTEREST RATE |
REGULAR REDEMPTION PAYMENTS |
TOTAL MATURITIES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 135.3 | 4.48% | 14.3 | 149.6 |
| 2022 | 225.6 | 3.26% | 10.6 | 236.2 |
| 2023 | 209.0 | 2.99% | 9.2 | 218.2 |
| 2024 | 0 | 9.6 | 9.6 | |
| 2025 | 58.3 | 2.07% | 10.1 | 68.4 |
| 2026 | 168.6 | 2.39% | 5.1 | 173.7 |
| 859.8 |
At-equity consolidated loans1
| IN € MILLION | END OF FIXED INTEREST PERIODS RESPECTIVELY EXPIRING LOANS |
AVG. INTEREST RATE | DES' SHARE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 48.8 | 4.59% | 50% | Phoenix-Center, Hamburg |
| 2022-2025 | 0 | |||
| 2026 | 88.0 | 2.16% | 50% |
1 as of 31 December 2020 2 excl. at-equity consolidated loans
Already fixed: €70.3m, 1.18%, 10y (07/2021)
FINANCIALS
Outlook
Leasing
continued stabilisation of situation and arrangements with tenants as well as releasing activities as key tasks for the coming months
Digital Mall
- onboarding of retailers continues, delivery case is tested with a closed user group
- now connected to Google's "See what's in store" feature (concept)
Financing and Liquidity
- negotiations of three loan prolongations ongoing and on track (€118m becoming due in June/July 2021)
- continued trustful and cooperative talks with banking partners
- Dividend proposal: mandatory minimum dividend of 4 cent/share for 2020 for prudent liquidity management reasons (given ongoing hard lockdown for most part of the portfolio)
CEO Appointment:
COMPANY
The Supervisory Board has extended the appointment of Wilhelm Wellner until 30 June 2025
Forecast
- given the uncertainty about the duration and impact of the Corona pandemic a forecast for the FY 2021 is not possible
- Hopes rise for end of pandemic as vaccine is effective and becomes broadly available
Update Digital Mall - Onboarding
Source: ECE
Financial Calendar
2021
| 23.03. | Preliminary Results FY 2020 |
|
|---|---|---|
| 25.03. | Bank of America EMEA Real Estate CEO Conference (virtual) |
|
| 26.03. | Commerzbank German Real Estate Forum (virtual) | |
| April | Publication of the Annual Report 2020 | |
| 11.05. | Quarterly Statement 3M 2021 | |
| 26.05. | Societe Generale The Nice Conference (virtual) |
|
| 27.05. | Kempen European Property Seminar (virtual) | |
| 18.06. | Annual General Meeting, Hamburg | |
| 23.-24.06. | UniCredit Kepler Cheuvreux German Property Day, Paris | |
| 12.08. | Half-year Financial Report 2021 | |
| 01.-02.09. | Commerzbank Sector Conference, Frankfurt |
|
| 20.09. | Berenberg and Goldman Sachs German Corporate Conference, Munich | |
| 21.09. | Baader Investment Conference, Munich | |
| 22.-23.09. | Bank of America Global Real Estate Conference (virtual) | |
| 11.11. | Quarterly Statement 9M 2021 | |
| 01.12. | DZ Bank Equity Conference, Frankfurt |
Contact
Deutsche EuroShop AG Investor & Public Relations Heegbarg 36 22391 Hamburg Tel. +49 (40) 41 35 79 – 20/ – 22
Fax +49 (40) 41 35 79 – 29 E-Mail: [email protected] Web: www.deutsche-euroshop.com
- instagram.com/deutscheeuroshop youtube.com/DeutscheEuroShop facebook.com/euroshop slideshare.net/desag twitter.com/des_ag flickr.com/desag
- ir-mall.com
Important Notice: Forward-Looking Statements
Statements in this presentation relating to future status or circumstances, including statements regarding management's plans and objectives for future operations, sales and earnings figures, are forward-looking statements of goals and expectations based on estimates, assumptions and the anticipated effects of future events on current and developing circumstances and do not necessarily predict future results.
Many factors could cause the actual results to be materially different from those that may be expressed or implied by such statements. Deutsche EuroShop does not intend to update these forward-looking statements and does not assume any obligation to do so.
Rounding and rates of change
27 Percentages and figures stated in this report may be subject to rounding differences. The rates of change are based on economic considerations: improvements are indicated by a plus (+); deterioration by a minus (-).