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James Cropper PLC

Interim / Quarterly Report Nov 9, 2021

7586_rns_2021-11-09_bf9287db-020f-4ce0-b2df-9171342c6d14.html

Interim / Quarterly Report

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National Storage Mechanism | Additional information

RNS Number : 7130R

Cropper(James) PLC

09 November 2021

The advanced materials and paper products group is pleased to announce its

Half-year results to 25 September 2021

Half-year to 25 September 2021 **Half-year to   26 September   2020 Full-year to 

27 March 

2021
£m £m £m
Revenue 49.8 34.0 78.7
Adjusted operating profit * 2.5 1.6 4.5
Operating profit 2.3 0.4 2.4
Adjusted profit before tax * 2.3 1.3 4.0
Impact of IAS 19 (0.4) (0.3) (0.8)
Impact of exceptional items 0.0 (1.1) (1.5)
Profit before tax 1.9 0.0 1.7
Earnings per share - basic and diluted 16.2p (0.2)p 16.4p
Dividend per share declared 2.5p Nil Nil
Net borrowings (9.6) (5.2) (7.5)
Equity shareholders' funds 32.3 27.3 29.9
Gearing % - before IAS 19 deficit 21% 12% 17%
Gearing % - after IAS 19 deficit 30% 19% 25%
Capital expenditure 2.9 1.4 3.1

* excludes the impact of IAS 19 and exceptional items (per note 8)                                                                                                                

** Prior year to 26 Sept 20 restated to reflect £2.8m of grant income reclassified from exceptional items to other income

Highlights

·      Group revenues up 47% on prior period comparative

·      Growth above pre-pandemic levels in TFP and Colourform

·      Adjusted PBT (excluding IAS 19 impact) at £2.3m, up 70% on prior period comparative

·      EPS (diluted) at 16.2p compared to 16.4p for the year ended March 2021

·      Reinstatement of interim dividend

·      As at 25 Sept 2021, the Company has liquidity of over £15m including cash and overdraft facilities

·      TFP new non-woven line adding 50% capacity now operational

·      Capital investments for future growth have re-started and ramp-up in the second half

·      New talent to join the Group Board during H2

Mark Cropper, Chairman, commented:

"The Group has experienced a 47% increase in revenues in the first half, returning to pre-pandemic levels, with both TFP and Colourform performing above this level, and Paper demonstrating a strong recovery. Plans are in place to establish an additional electrolyser line in the US as the hydrogen market surges and the 50% increase in TFP's non-woven lines is now operational. Paper sales are projected to be ahead of pre-pandemic levels by the start of 2022, with a strong demand for recycled fibre content and responsible sourcing.  The Colourformä business attracts brands seeking plastic-free sustainable packaging across the wines, spirits, beauty, and fragrance sectors."

"We are committed to being operationally carbon neutral by 2030 and to significantly reducing carbon through our entire supply chain by 2035.  Building on strong foundations, the newly defined ESG committee is developing targets against all our ESG strategic intents.  We invest significantly in people, innovation and capability will ensure that over the long term, the Group has the potential to sustain growth across all its businesses. In the nearer term, the full-year results are anticipated to show strong growth from the pandemic."

Enquiries:  Isabelle Maddock, Chief Financial Officer Robert Finlay, Henry Willcocks, John More
James Cropper PLC (AIM:CRPR.L) Shore Capital
Telephone: +44 (0) 1539 722002 Telephone: +44 (0) 20 7408 4090
www.jamescropper.com
Half-year to 25 September 2021 ** Half-year to   26 September 2020 Full-year to 27 March    2021
Summary of results £'000 £'000 £'000
Revenue 49,828 34,004 78,768
Adjusted operating profit* 2,474 1,583 4,510
Operating profit 2,310 352 2,445
Adjusted profit before tax * 2,263 1,334 4,023
Impact of IAS19 (350) (293) (802)
Exceptional items (note 8) - (1,057) (1,502)
Profit / (loss) before tax 1,913 (16) 1,719

* excludes the impact of IAS 19 and exceptional items (per note 8) 

** prior-year reclassification of grant income from exceptional items to other income

Half-year to 25 September 2021 ** Half-year to   26 September 2020 Full-year to 27 March    2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Revenue
Paper division 34,143 20,856 51,376
Colourform division 1,731 1,414 2,822
Technical Fibre Products division 13,954 11,734 24,570
49,828 34,004 78,768
Adjusted operating  profit * 2,474 1,583 4,510
Adjusted net interest (211) (249) (487)
Adjusted profit before tax * 2,263 1,334 4,023
IAS19 pension adjustments
Net current service charge against operating profits (164) (174) (563)
Finance costs charged against interest (186) (119) (239)
(350) (293) (802)
Exceptional items (note 8) - (1,057) (1,502)
Profit / (loss) before tax 1,913 (16) 1,719

* excludes the impact of IAS 19 and exceptional items (per note 8)

Balance sheet summary Half-year to 25 September 2021 Half-year to   26 September 2020 Full-year to 27 March    2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Non-pension assets - excluding cash 74,213 69,854 70,780
Non-pension liabilities - excluding borrowings (19,482) (22,517) (18,444)
54,731 47,337 52,336
Net IAS19 pension deficit (after deferred tax) (12,835) (14,791) (14.933)
41,896 32,546 37,403
Net borrowings (9,637) (5,220) (7,502)
Equity shareholders' funds 32,259 27,326 29,901
Gearing % - before IAS19 deficit 21% 12% 17%
Gearing % - after IAS19 deficit 30% 19% 25%
Capital expenditure 2,877 1,367 3,127

Dear Shareholders

I am pleased to report that James Cropper PLC recorded a 47% increase in revenue for the first half, at £49.8m (2020: £34m) compared to the prior year comparative, with growth in all divisions. Adjusted profit before tax (excluding the impact of IAS 19) was £2.3m for the first half of the current financial year, compared to £1.3m in the prior comparative period. In the first half of the previous year £2.8m of government support from UK and US schemes for employment helped the Group to retain trained employees and protect liquidity during the demand shock from the pandemic; in the first half of this year, demand returns to pre-pandemic levels, and the Group is operating without such support.  After the impact of IAS19, profit before tax is £1.9m, up from £nil in the prior comparative period.

In TFP, sales grew 19%, including recovery in the aerospace sector and strong growth continuing in renewable energy. Paper experienced 64% growth on prior-year sales, with luxury packaging, publishing, art and photography sectors returning to strength. Meanwhile, Colourform continues to win new contracts and experienced 22% growth in all markets.  

Technical Fibre Products ("TFP")

Revenues in the TFP division were up by 19% across all market segments.  Strong growth continues in the renewable energy sector, and demand in the aerospace sector is returning as aircraft build rates increase.  Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) water electrolyser sectors are growing, and TFP is investing in additional USA capacity to meet forthcoming demand.

James Cropper Paper ("Paper")

The Paper division, which Covid-19 adversely impacted, is seeing revenues up by 64% compared to last year's comparable period. Whilst the division does face a challenging inflationary environment, significant contracts gained in luxury packaging and price increases are strengthening the mix. Investment is underway to deliver additional capability to meet these contract wins and the increased demand coming on stream for materials with sustainable and recycled fibres delivered via circular economy projects.

Colourform™ ("Colourform")  

Revenues in the Colourform division grew by 22% in the period, with contracts being fulfilled for the wines, spirits, and beauty and fragrance sectors. Significant international recognition was gained across the packaging industry with multiple sustainability awards won. As a result, Colourform's pipeline continues to grow with unique, pioneering projects for sustainable coloured packaging solutions.

Pension

Overall, the combined funding position on an IAS19 measure for the combined schemes has improved over the 6 month period from a deficit of £18.4 million to a deficit of £17.1 million. This improvement largely came about as a result of stronger asset performance relative to the discount rate at the end of the year, which was partially offset by a rise in inflation expectations.

Earnings per share and dividend

Basic and fully diluted earnings per share increased to 16.2 pence, compared to (0.2) pence in the prior year comparative period.

The Board has declared an interim dividend as trading conditions have improved and the outlook continues to be favourable.  The Board declared an interim dividend of 2.5p per share (2020: nil).

Group Board changes

As per the announcement on 4 November, James Gravestock will join the Board on 15 November 2021 as an Executive Director and the Managing Director for TFP. As Group Managing Director with Hamla plc, James has demonstrated a career with strong results-driven business leadership roles. The appointment of James follows a prior announcement sharing that Martin Thompson, TFP MD, will be leaving the company after 18 years, following a handover period.

As per the announcement on 9 November 2021, the Group Board welcomes two additional Non-Executive Directors (NED), Martin Court and Sarah Miles. Whilst bringing further independence to the Group Board, both Martin and Sarah bring strong commercial experience, helping to support the group's growth plans. The Group Board also wishes to thank Andrew Hosty for his role as a NED during the last three years and his contribution. Andrew stepped down from the Board in November.

Outlook

The Group has experienced a 47% increase in revenues in the first half, returning to pre-pandemic levels, with both TFP and Colourform performing above this level and Paper demonstrating a strong recovery.

Adjusted PBT for the Group increased by 70%, with strong growth across all businesses. It is expected that the Group will continue to grow in the second half.

Plans are in place to establish an additional electrolyser line in the US as the hydrogen market expands and the 50% increase in TFP's non-woven lines is now operational. Paper sales are projected to be ahead of pre-pandemic levels by the start of 2022, with a strong demand for recycled fibre content and responsible sourcing.  The Colourformä business is attracting brands seeking plastic-free sustainable packaging across the wines, spirits, beauty, and fragrance sectors.

Through the second half, new talent will be joining the Group Board, including a successor for the TFP MD role and two additional Non-Executive Directors. These changes will continue to strengthen the capabilities of the Group Board.

We are committed to being operationally carbon neutral by 2030 and to significantly reducing carbon through our entire supply chain by 2035.  Building on strong foundations, the newly defined ESG committee is developing targets against all our ESG strategic intents. We invest significantly in people, innovation and capability, and this will ensure that over the long term the Group has the potential to sustain growth across all its businesses. In the nearer term, the full-year results are anticipated to show strong growth from the pandemic.

Mark Cropper

Chairman

UN-AUDITED CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT

26 week period

to 25 September   2021
26 week period

to 26 September   2020
52 week period to 27 March 2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Revenue 49,828 34,004 78,768
Provision for impairment - - (431)
Other income 590 2,804 3,036
Changes in inventories 1,772 (1,383) 598
Raw materials and consumables used (19,438) (10,416) (28,290)
Energy costs (3,231) (1,034) (3,078)
Employee benefit costs (15,088) (14,713) (28,417)
Depreciation and amortisation (1,975) (2,158) (4,489)
Other expenses (10,148) (6,752) (15,252)
Operating profit 2,310 352 2,445
Interest payable and similar charges (415) (370) (730)
Interest receivable and similar income 18 2 4
Profit /(loss) before taxation 1,913 (16) 1,719
Taxation (363) 3 (153)
Profit / (loss) for the period 1,550 (13) 1,566
Earnings per share - basic and diluted 16.2p (0.2)p 16.4p
UN-AUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
Profit / (loss) for the period 1,550 (13) 1,566
Items that are or may be reclassified to profit or loss
Foreign currency translation 1 (80) (80)
Cash flow hedges - effective portion of changes in fair value 33 53 258
Pulp hedge fair value adjustment 154 - 501
Items that will never be reclassified to profit or loss
Retirement benefit liabilities - actuarial gain / (loss) 955 (8,788) (8,750)
Deferred tax on actuarial (gain) / loss on retirement benefit liabilities (239) 1,670 1,663
Other comprehensive income / (expense) for the period 904 (7,145) (6,408)
Total comprehensive income / (expense) for the period attributable to equity holders of the Company 2,454 (7,158) (4,842)

UN-AUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

25 September

2021
26 September

2020
27 March  2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Assets
Intangible assets 1,935 421 1,946
Goodwill 1,264 - 1,264
Property, plant and equipment 31,584 32,438 30,6966
Right of use assets 4,219 3,468 4,160
Deferred tax assets 4,279 3,471 3,729
Total non-current assets 43,281 39,798 41,795
Inventories 17,807 13,550 15,469
Trade and other receivables 17,536 18,656 16,053
Provision for impairment (901) (536) (961)
Other financial assets 672 - 501
Cash and cash equivalents 7,357 11,064 6,765
Current tax assets 97 1,857 1,425
Total current assets 42,568 44,591 39,252
Total assets 85,849 84,389 81,047
Liabilities
Trade and other payables 17,061 20,219 15,780
Other financial liabilities - 222 16
Loans and borrowings 8,548 4,774 8,301
Total current liabilities 25,609 25,215 24,097
Long-term borrowings 8,446 11,510 5,966
Retirement benefit liabilities 17,114 18,262 18,436
Contingent consideration on business acquisition 401 - 401
Deferred tax liabilities 2,020 2,076 2,246
Total non-current liabilities 27,981 31,848 27,049
Total liabilities 53,590 57,063 51,146
Equity
Share capital 2,389 2,389 2,389
Share premium 1,588 1,588 1,588
Translation reserve 505 504 504
Hedging reserve 655 - 501
Reserve for own shares (1,151) (1,251) (1,151)
Retained earnings 28,273 24,096 26,070
Total shareholders' equity 32,259 27,326 29,901
Total equity and liabilities 85,849 84,389 81,047

UN-AUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS

26 week period to 25 September        2021 26 week period

to 26 September 2020
52 week period

to 27 March      2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Cash flows from operating activities
Net profit / (loss) 1,550 (13) 1,566
Adjustments for:
Tax 363 (3) 153
Depreciation and amortisation 1,975 2,158 4,489
Transaction costs - - 384
Net IAS 19 pension adjustments within Statement of comprehensive income 350 293 802
Past service pension deficit payments (717) (201) (498)
Foreign exchange differences (1) 112 783
Loss on disposal of property, plant and equipment - 2 -
Gains on early termination of rights of use assets - - (19)
Net bank interest expense 220 249 487
Share based payments (96) 87 245
Changes in working capital:
(Increase) / decrease in inventories (2,326) 386 (1,448)
(Increase) / decrease in trade and other receivables (1,571) 537 3,401
Increase / (decrease)  in trade and other payables 1,274 3,663 (2,406)
Net cash generated from operating activities 1,021 7,270 7,939
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchase of intangible assets (21) (29) (42)
Purchases of property, plant and equipment (2,856) (1,338) (3,085)
Acquisition of business net of cash and cash equivalents - - (1,359)
Net cash used in investing activities (2,877) (1,367) (4,486)
Cash flows from financing activities
Proceeds from issue of new loans 3,321 5,402 6,390
Repayment of borrowings (324) (9,066) (10,313)
Repayment of lease liabilities (419) - (818)
Interest received 18 2 4
Interest paid (156) (160) (353)
Distribution of own shares - - 100
Net cash generated / used in financing activities financingactactivitiesactivities 2,440 (3,822) (4,990)
Net increase / (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 584 2,081 (1,537)
Effect of exchange rate fluctuations on cash held 8 19 (662)
Net increase / (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 592 2,100 (2,199)12
Cash and cash equivalents at the start of the period 6,765 8,964 8,964
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 7,357 11,064 6,765
Cash and cash equivalents consists of:
Cash at bank and in hand 7,357 11,064 6,765

UN-AUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY

Share capital Share premium Translation

reserve
Own shares Hedging Reserve Retained earnings Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
At 27 March 2021 2,389 1,588 504 (1,151) 501 26,070 29,901
Comprehensive income for the period - - - - - 1,550 1,550
Total other comprehensive income - - 1 - 154 749 904
Share based payment charge - - - - - (96) (96)
Total contributions by and distributions to owners of the Group - - - - - (96) (96)
At 25 September 2021 2,389 1,588 505 (1,151) 655 28,273 32,259
At 28 March 2020 2,389 1,588 584 (1,251) - 31,087 34,397
Comprehensive (expense) for the period - - - - - (13) (13)
Total other comprehensive expense - - (80) - - (7,065) (7,145)
Share based payment charge - - - - - 87 87
Total contributions by and distributions to owners of the Group - - - - - 87 87
At 26 September 2020 2,389 1,588 504 (1,251) - 24,096 27,326

NOTES TO THE CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED HALF YEAR STATEMENTS

1    BASIS OF PREPARATION

James Cropper Plc (the Company) is a public limited company incorporated and domiciled in the United Kingdom and listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM). The condensed consolidated half year financial statements of the Company for the twenty six weeks ended 25 September 2021, which have not been audited or reviewed, comprise the Company and its subsidiaries (together referred to as the Group).

Basis of preparation

The condensed consolidated financial statements for the 26 week periods ending 25 September 2021 and 26 September 2020 are unaudited and were approved by the Directors on 8 November 2021. They do not constitute statutory accounts as defined in s434 of the Companies Act 2006. The financial statements for the year ended 27 March 2021 were prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and have been delivered to the Registrar of Companies. The report of the auditor on those financial statements was unqualified and did not draw attention to any matters by way of emphasis of matter. The Group's financial statements consolidate the financial statements of James Cropper Plc and its subsidiaries.

Applicable standards

These unaudited consolidated interim financial statements have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as adopted by the European Union, under the historical cost convention.  They have not been prepared in accordance with IAs 34, the application of which is not required to the interim financial statements of companies trading on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM companies). The interim financial statements have been prepared in accordance with the accounting policies applied in the preparation of the Group's published consolidated financial statements for the 52 week period ended 27 March 2021.

The consolidated financial statements of the Group for the 52 week period ended 27 March 2021 are available upon request from the Company's registered office Burneside Mills, Kendal, Cumbria, LA9 6PZ or at www.jamescropper.com.

The half year financial information is presented in Sterling and all values are rounded to the nearest thousand pounds (£'000) except where otherwise indicated.

Going concern

The Directors, at the time of approving these interim statements, have a reasonable expectation that the Group has adequate resources to continue in operational existence for at least 12 months from this reporting date.

For the interim going concern review the Group has a 3 year plan against which a number of scenarios assess headroom against facilities and impacts on bank covenants, which showed adequate headroom and no covenant breaches. £7.8m of debt is due for renewal within the next 12 months, current availability of finance is good and the Group expects to be able to renew funding on favourable terms.  

Following this review the Directors are satisfied that the Company and the Group have adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. Accordingly, they continue to adopt the going concern basis in preparing the condensed consolidated financial statements.

Significant accounting policies

The accounting policies applied by the Group in these condensed consolidated financial statements are the same as those applied by the Group in its consolidated financial statements as at and for the 52 week period ended 27 March 2021.

2     Accounting estimates and judgements

The preparation of half year financial statements requires management to make judgements, estimates and assumptions that affect the application of accounting policies and the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, income and expenses. Actual results may differ from these estimates.

The significant judgements made by management in applying the Group's accounting policies and the key sources of estimation uncertainty were the same as those applied to the consolidated financial statements as at and for the 52 week period ended 27 March 2021.

3    Risks and uncertainties

The principal risks and uncertainties which may have the largest impact on performance in the second half of the year are the same as disclosed in the 2021 Annual Report on pages 21-25. The principal risks set out in the 2021 Annual Report were:

Covid-19 pandemic risk; employee health & safety; energy price volatility; pulp price volatility and sustainability; exchange rate volatility; pension and information security and cyber risk.

The Board considers that all  principal risks and uncertainties set out in the 2021 annual report have not changed and remain relevant for the second half of the financial year.

4    Alternative performance measures

The Company uses alternative performance measures to allow users of the financial statements to gain a clearer understanding of the underlying performance of the business.

Profit before tax represents the Group's overall performance and financial position, however it contains significant non-operational items relating to IAS 19 that the directors believe obscure an understanding of the key performance trend.

Measures used to evaluate business performance are 'Adjusted operating profit' (operating profit excluding the impact of IAS 19 and exceptional items) and 'Adjusted profit before tax' (profit before tax excluding the impact of IAS 19 and exceptional items). The alternative performance measures are reconciled in note 9.

The adjustment, which we refer to in these accounts as the "IAS 19 impact" represents the difference between the pension charge as calculated under IAS 19 and the cash contributions for the current service cost only as determined by the latest triennial valuation. The Directors consider that the adjusted pension charge better reflects the actual pension costs for ongoing service compared to the IAS 19 charge. This adjustment is made internally when we assess performance and is also used in the EBITDA and EPS targets used in management incentive schemes.

5    Earnings per share

Six months ended 25 September 2021 Six months ended 26 September 2020 Year ended         27 March 

2021
Earnings per share    - basic and diluted 16.2p (0.2)p 16.4p
Profit / (loss) for the financial period (£'000) 1,550 (16) 1,566
Weighted average number of shares -

basic and diluted
9,554,803 9,554,803 9,554,803

6    Dividends

The proposed interim dividend of 2.5p (2020: nil) per 25p ordinary share is payable on 14 January 2022 to those shareholders on the register of the Company at the close of business on 9 December 2021, with the last day for DRIP elections being 21 December 2021.

7    Retirement benefit obligations

26 week period ended 25 September 2021 26 week period ended 26 September 2020 52 week period ended 27 March 2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Obligation brought forward (18,436) (9,382) (9,382)
Expense recognised in the income statement (718) (528) (1,273)
Contributions paid to the schemes 1,085 437 969
Actuarial gains and (losses) recognised in Other Comprehensive Income 955 (8,789) (8,750)
Obligation carried forward (17,114) (18,262) (18,436)

8    Exceptional items

26 week period ended 25 September 2021 26 week period ended 26 September 2020 52 week period ended 27 March 2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Restructuring costs - (1,057) (1,118)
Transaction costs - - (384)
Exceptional items - (1,057) (1,502)

9    Alternative performance measures

26 week period ended 25 September 2021 26 week period ended 26 September 2020 52 week period ended 27 March 2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Adjusted operating profit 2,474 1,583 4,510
Net IAS 19 pension adjustments - current service costs (164) (174) (563)
Restructuring costs - (1,057) (1,118)
Transaction costs - - (384)
Operating profit 2,310 352 2,445
26 week period ended 25 September 2021 26 week period ended 26 September 2020 52 week period ended 27 March 2021
£'000 £'000 £'000
Adjusted  profit before tax 2,263 1,334 4,023
Net IAS 19 pension adjustments
- current service costs (532) (409) (1,034)
- future service contributions paid 368 235 471
- finance costs (186) (119) (239)
Restructuring costs - (1,057) (1,118)
Transaction costs - - (384)
Profit / (loss) before tax 1,913 (16) 1,719

10  Related parties

There have been no significant changes in the nature of related party transactions in the period ended 25 September 2021 from that disclosed in the 2021 annual report.

Statement of Directors' responsibilities

The Directors confirm that these condensed consolidated interim financial statements have been prepared in accordance with IAS 34 as adopted by the European Union and that the interim management report includes a fair review of the information required by DTR 4.2.7 and DTR 4.2.8, namely:

(i)           An indication of important events that have occurred during the first six months and their impact on the condensed set of financial statements, and a description of the principal risks and uncertainties for the remaining six months of the financial year; and

(ii)          Material related party transactions in the first six months and any material changes in the related party transactions described in the last Annual report.

The Directors of James Cropper Plc are detailed on our Group website www.jamescropper.com

Forward-looking statements

Sections of this half-yearly financial report may contain forward-looking statements with respect to the Group's plans and expectations relating to its future performance, results, strategic initiatives, objectives and financial position, including liquidity and capital resources. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. By their very nature, all forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events that may or may not occur in the future and are or may be beyond the Group's control. Accordingly, the Group's actual results and financial condition may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements in this half-yearly financial report are current only as of the date on which such statements are made. The Group undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, save in respect of any requirement under applicable law or regulation. Nothing in this announcement shall be construed as a profit forecast.

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