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Commerzbank AG Investor Presentation 2020

May 13, 2020

81_ip_2020-05-13_ebdba503-f42e-4903-ab5b-84af0d0affa2.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Good customer business in Q1 – strong capital ratio to manage Corona impact

Analyst conference – Q1 2020 results

Commerzbank 5.0 digital – personal – responsible

Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020 All figures in this presentation are subject to rounding

Commerzbank well positioned to effectively manage the Corona crisis

We actively support our customers – strong loan growth and small number of deferrals

  • › Around 18k loan requests for €18bn received; >50% for KfW loans high ~14% market share for KfW loans (up to €100m)
  • › Small corporates benefit from grants available from the German government reducing loan demand
  • › >80% of deferrals only for principal payments (mainly maturity extensions) remaining deferrals for principal and interest

Good customer business in Q1 – strong capital ratio to manage Corona impact

Highlights Q1 2020

Good operating performance of customer segments

  • › YoY underlying NII up 6% and NCI up 14% prove effective strategy execution at client interface
  • › In PSBC strong revenues from customers' securities trading in Q1 net 142k additional customers in Germany
  • › In CC corporate activity and customer revenues on the same level as the previous quarter

Operating result of -€277m includes -€479m effects from Corona

  • › Reduced operating expenses based on intensified cost management
  • › Fair value result and other income include -€295m Corona induced temporary valuation effects in March
  • › Risk result of -€326m includes -€185m impact from Corona

Balance sheet remains healthy – with strong risk and capital ratios

  • › CET1 ratio of 13.2% and LCR of 130%
  • › NPE ratio of 0.8% underlines sound quality of loan book going into Corona downturn
  • › No dividend accrual until more clarity on effect of Corona available

Key financial figures include -€479m effects from Corona

Corona related effects of -€479m booked in Q1

  • › Additional Top Level Adjustment to risk result covers further anticipated effects from Corona in scenario of 2 month lockdown and subsequent step-by-step restart
  • › Corona driven temporary valuation effects and increased CVA on customer derivatives of -€295m partially reported in exceptional revenue items

Operating result driven by good customer revenues and Corona impact

Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020

Revenues show continued improvement of NII and NCI but are affected by temporary valuation effects

  • › Underlying operating performance driven by improved NII and NCI strong performance of client business throughout Q1
  • › In March fair value and other income impacted by temporary valuation effects from long-term interest rate hedges and funding transactions with cross-currency swaps as well as increased CVA
  • › As volatility in markets reduced, partial reversal of valuation effects (around €90m) in April

Strong customer business overshadowed by effects from Corona crisis

Group operating result Group P&L
(€m) in €m Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
450 Revenues 2,157 2,130 2,183 2,173 1,853
Positive operating Exceptional items -34 34 13 11 -173
311 Revenues excl. exceptional items 2,191 2,096 2,170 2,163 2,026
246 250 result of €202m o/w Net interest income 1,254 1,292 1,277 1,323 1,323
before -€479m o/w Net commission income 768 739 763 788 878
effects from o/w Net fair value result 66 -1 98 85 -144
o/w Other income 103 66 32 -33 -31
Corona Risk result -78 -178 -114 -250 -326
Operating expenses 1,567 1,579 1,559 1,608 1,503
Compulsory contributions 265 63 60 65 301
Operating result 246 311 450 250 -277
Impairments on other intangible assets - - - 28
Restructuring expenses - - - 101
-277 Pre-tax profit discontinued operations -19 19 -7 -9 44
Pre-tax profit Commerzbank Group 227 330 443 112 -233
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Taxes on income 91 20 104 154 54
Minority interests 14 30 43 13 8
2019 2020 Net result 122 280 296 -54 -295
CIR (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) 72.7 74.1 71.4 74.0 81.1
CIR (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) 85.0 77.1 74.1 77.0 97.4
Net RoTE (%) 1.9 4.4 4.4 -1.1 -4.9
Operating RoCET (%) 4.2 5.2 7.5 4.1 -4.6
  • › YoY 6% increase in underlying NII and 14% increase in NCI reflect strategic progress of customer businesses
  • › Risk result of -€326m includes -€185m impact from Corona
  • › Discontinued operations completely transferred to Societe Generale beginning of May
  • › Taxes largely due to profits at some legal entities and not tax deductible compulsory contributions

Lower costs reflect effective cost management – compulsory contributions have again been increased significantly

  • › Administrative expenses decreased by €44m reflecting cost management
  • › Personnel expenses benefit from a net reduction of about 1,200 FTE to around 39,800 FTE
  • › Further decrease in personnel expenses due to adjusted variable compensation
  • › Compulsory contributions increased strongly due to increase in European bank levy (+17%)

Risk result includes -€185m impact from Corona

Highlights

  • › Overall top level adjustment of -€111m for anticipated impact from Corona takes mitigating effects from government support measures into account
  • › In CC -€166m risk result reflects single cases and less write-backs includes -€61m Corona related effects in March and top level adjustment of -€62m
  • › In PSBC -€160m risk result includes top level adjustment of -€49m mBank's -€83m risk result is in line with business model and includes -€14m Corona related effects from corporates and top level adjustment of -€17m
  • › Increased cost of risk on loan book to 47bp reflects booking of anticipated Corona effects

1) NPE ratio = Non-performing loans and advances / Total gross loans and advances (according to EBA Risk Dashboard)

  • Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020
  • 2) Cost of Risk (CoR) = Risk Result / Exposure at Default
  • 3) Cost of Risk on Loans (CoRL) = Risk Result / Loans and Advances (interim report note (19))

Limited exposure to sectors most affected by Corona

Retail
Overall stable sector. Due to high proportion of food retailing (food retailing with 10-
15% non food revenues)
€7.1bn
Share of Investment Grade at 88%
(1.5% of Group
portfolio)

Our consistent strategy of customer selection and only support of sustainable
business models over the past years pays off during the current crisis
Travel related
€ 2.7bn airlines portfolio consists of €1.6bn secured aircraft financing and €1.0bn
corporate exposure
€4.7bn
Cruise liners (€0.9bn) mostly ECA covered

For hotel portfolio (€0.6bn) recovery on a low level expected starting in Q3/2020
(1.0% of Group
Tour operators (€0.4bn): Mix of state support and use of KfW
programs
portfolio)
Approximately 83% of the portfolio with investment grade ratings
Oil & Gas
More than 50% of the exposure to integrated oil & gas majors and Tier II operators
with strong balance sheets –
only 4% upstream operators
€4.5bn
Approximately 75% of the overall portfolio equivalent to investment grade
(0.9% of Group
High ability to react –
more than 50% of the exposure with maturities below 1 year
portfolio)
No exposure to shale producers and project finance

Q1 Top Level Adjustment for anticipated corona impacts – reflecting current assessment

  • Comprehensive analysis of most affected portfolios
  • Updated macro scenario, taken significant expected downturn into consideration
  • Additional risk provisions under IFRS9 accounting standard due to higher PDs and defaults expected
  • Assessment of domestic and international governmental support programs

Top Level Adjustment of -€111m

Private and Small Business Customers: continued growth – securities volume reflects drop in market indices

  • › >75% new customers via online account opening
  • › €3.8bn inflow in securities reduction in securities volume due to drop in market indices

  • 1) Values adjusted for ebase and inactive accounts

  • 2) Values adjusted for ebase

Private and Small Business Customers: strong customer business across all sub-segments

Operating result Segmental P&L
(€m) in €m Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
316 Revenues 1,201 1,224 1,327 1,162 1,317
Operating result of o/w Private Customers 590 598 575 568 600
249 €212m before o/w Small Business Customers 200 204 199 205 209
o/w mBank 274 294 298 255 305
-€62m effects from o/w comdirect 96 100 100 91 151
153 150 Corona o/w Commerz Real 60 47 71 57 73
128 o/w exceptional revenue items -20 -21 84 -14 -21
Revenues excl. exceptional items 1,221 1,244 1,243 1,176 1,338
Risk result -52 -48 -87 -67 -160
Operating expenses 870 873 873 913 871
Compulsory contributions 125 53 51 55 137
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Operating result 153 249 316 128 150
RWA (end of period in €bn) 43.2 44.8 46.5 47.2 47.3
CIR (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) 72.5 71.3 65.8 78.5 66.1
CIR (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) 82.9 75.7 69.6 83.3 76.5
2019 2020 Operating return on equity (%) 12.0 19.0 23.2 9.0 10.6
  • › YoY 10% increase in underlying revenues driven by 25% increase in NCI from the transactional securities business as well as 3% increase in NII
  • › Operating result stable YoY with improved revenues completely compensating for €108m higher risk result
  • › YoY German mortgages up 7% to €82.2bn with new business on a high level as Q1 2019 consumer finance book at €3.8bn

Corporate Clients: increased loan volume – includes drawing of committed lines in March

Loan volume Corporates (quarterly average €bn | Mittelstand and International Corporates) 75 78 82 88 89 96 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 End March

  • › Continued growth with target customers
  • › €1bn average growth in Q1 in March and April around €11bn new loans and increased drawing of credit lines

Corporate Clients: customer business largely stable – we are there for our customers

(€m) Operating result Segmental P&L
in €m Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Operating result of Revenues 860 776 781 823 747
119 146 €86m before o/w Mittelstand 454 441 450 444 453
-€201m effects o/w International Corporates 226 206 217 202 203
from Corona o/w Institutionals 150 155 149 140 157
21 39 o/w others 37 -2 8 49 13
o/w exceptional revenue items -8 -23 -42 -13 -78
Revenues excl. exceptional items 869 799 823 835 825
Risk result -28 -127 -31 -156 -166
Operating expenses 620 619 596 619 591
Compulsory contributions 93 8 8 9 103
-114 Operating result 119 21 146 39 -114
Impairments on other intangible assets - - - 28 -
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Pre-tax profit discontinued operations -19 19 -7 -9 44
RWA (end of period in €bn) 102.0 102.5 103.1 95.8 97.9
2020 CIR (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) 72.1 79.8 76.3 75.2 79.2
2019 CIR (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) 82.9 80.9 77.4 76.3 93.0
Operating return on equity (%) 4.1 0.7 4.8 1.3 -4.0
  • › Customer revenues largely stable YoY and up from Q4 International Corporates affected by valuation effects in March
  • › Customers supported with advice and liquidity high ~14% market share for KfW loans (up to €100m)
  • › Valuation effects in exceptional revenues driven by CVA adjustments on customer derivatives in March
  • › Operating result additionally affected by risk result of -€166m including -€122m effects from Corona
  • › Discontinued operations reflects sales proceeds transfer of positions completed beginning of May

Strong CET1 ratio of 13.2%

  • › Net €2.2bn increase of Credit RWA mainly from lending in CC partially driven by Corona related drawing of credit lines
  • › Market Risk RWA increased by €0.4bn mainly driven by higher market volatility due to the Corona crisis
  • › Operational Risk RWA decrease of €0.6bn reflects development of internal and external loss data
  • › Decrease in capital due to quarterly loss being partly offset by retained dividend

Objectives and expectations for 2020 – assuming decent recovery over the summer

Commerzbank 5.0

digital – personal – responsible

Commerzbank 5.0 digital – personal – responsible

Appendix

German economy 21 Funding expectations 35
Corona related information Distance to MDA 36
Support programs 22 Rating overview 37
Retail portfolio 23 Risk & Capital Management
Travel related portfolio 24 IAS 19: Pension obligations 38
Oil and gas portfolio 25 Exchange rate development effects on capital 39
Valuation effects 26 Residential mortgage business 40
Corporate responsibility 27 Group equity composition 41
Commerzbank Group P&L Tables
Commerzbank financials at a glance 28 Commerzbank Group 42
Key figures Commerzbank share 29 Private and Small Business Customers 43
Exceptional revenue items 30 mBank 44
Loan and deposit volumes 31 Corporate Clients 45
Scenario: NII sensitivity 32 Asset & Capital Recovery 46
Others & Consolidation 47
Funding & Rating
Funding structure / activities 2020
33 Exceptional revenue items
by segment
48
Commerzbank's MREL requirements 34 Glossary 49

German economy 2020 – a body blow from the Corona virus

Current
After an encouraging start into the year 2020 the spreading of the Corona
virus and the measures which should contain the outbreak resulted in a slump
of economic activity.
As a consequence German real GDP probably shrank by
roughly 2.5% QoQ
in Q1; the QoQ
decline in Q2 will probably be more than
four times this number
despite the first steps of loosening the lockdown.
DAX
(avg. p.a.)
10,957
10,196 12,431 12,272 12,103
development Almost all parts of the German economy are affected by this slump. One of the
less affected sectors is probably construction, while big parts of the service
sector, which had
been the mainstay of the German economy until the
outbreak of the virus, have been hit very hard.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10,500
2020e
If the number of infections declines further, the containment measures will be
taken back step for step in the coming months. This will allow a significant
recovery of the German economy from Q3 onwards.
Euribor
-0.02
(avg. p.a. %)
Our expectation
for 2020

However, it will take time until German real
GDP reaches its pre-crisis level
again. Until a vaccine is available, the virus will still hamper economic activity.
In addition, business debt is currently rising rapidly. After the crisis firms will
try to reduce their debt burden again by postponing investment and cutting
their workforce.

We expect
the German economy to shrink by 5.5% in 2020, followed by a
recovery of 4.5% in 2021. Obviously the forecast uncertainty is much higher
than usual, and the risks to this forecast are tilted to the downside.
2015 -0.26
2016
-0.32
2017
-0.32
2018
-0.36
2019
-0.4
2020e
GDP
2.2
2.6
2.5
1.8
Germany
Eurozone
(change vs. previous year %)
1.8
1.5
0.6 5.0
4.5
1.2
-5.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 -7.0
2020e
2021e

Strong governmental, regulatory and central bank action

Corona related support measures

German Government European Union Regulators and ECB
Regulatory
measures

Domestic short-time
working scheme

Economic stimulus
in long
term budget plan 2021-27

Easing of capital
requirements

Suspension of insolvency
law until October 2020

European short-time
working scheme (SURE)

Reduction of procyclicality
of regulations

Full support for trade
activities by credit insurer

Extended
application of EU
Solidarity Fund

Postponement of Basel IV
introduction
Financial
measures

KfW
loans with 80/90/100%
guarantee available

European Stability
Mechanism capacities

Provision of additional
liquidity to banking system


Equity injection available

Grants given to small SME

/ self employed
EU Investments
initiative
for SMEs and health care

New PEPP bond buying
program established
Mobilisation of capital by
European Investment Bank

Additional
extension of
existing QE programmes

Retail with winners and losers in the Corona crisis – share of 1.5% of overall portfolio

  • › Overall stable sector due to high proportion of food retailing and drugstores (food retailing with 10-15% non food revenues). Top 10 borrower units represent 58% of sector EaD
  • › Retail industry: fierce predatory competition in all segments by price and investments in shop modernization
  • › In crisis: food retailing winner due to stay-at-home effect and shut down of competitors in non food. Fashion: most severely affected
  • › After crisis: Home Improvement/Furniture/DIY: expected to benefit from "cocooning-impact" and shift in consumer preferences
  • › Corona liquidity support: 81 applications, thereof 31 approved, 50 in processing
  • › Our consistent strategy of customer selection and support of sustainable business models only over the past years pays off during the current crisis

Travel related industries are strongly affected by the Corona crisis – share of only 1% of overall portfolio

  • › € 2.7bn airlines portfolio consists of €1.6bn secured aircraft financing and €1.0bn corporate exposure
  • › Cruise liners (€0.9bn) mostly ECA covered. ECA has provided loan deferral options ("cruise debt holiday of principle") to protect liquidity
  • › For hotel portfolio (€0.6bn) recovery on a low level expected starting in Q3/2020. Portfolio consists of €0.3bn asset based financing (only hotels in Germany) and corporate financing (Europe-wide)
  • › Tour operators (€0.4bn): Mix of state support and use of KfW programs
  • › Approximately 83% of the portfolio with investment grade ratings

Oil/gas exposure stands for less than 1% of total exposure – approximately 75% investment grade

  • › More than 50% of the exposure to integrated oil & gas majors and Tier II operators with strong balance sheets. Leverage overall better than 2015/16 across these groups – when oil price was last < USD 30/bbl
  • › Commodity trader exposure concentrated to world's top independent energy traders with strong liquidity profiles and benefiting from "flight to quality"
  • › >Approximately 75% of the overall portfolio equivalent to investment grade
  • › High ability to react more than 50% of the exposure with maturities below 1 year
  • › No exposure to single asset operations
  • › No shale producers
  • › No project finance

1) Largely state owned and / or national companies with diversified operations with integrated upstream and downstream Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020 25

Valuation effects from long-term funding transactions impact Q1 – partial reversal in April

  • › Strong market moves in cross currency (e.g. in GBP) has lead to valuation spikes of long-term funding transactions
  • › In March market moves in cross currency and also tenor basis resulted in impact of around -€150m partially reported as exceptional revenue items
  • › As volatility in markets reduced, partial reversal of valuation effects (around €90m) in April

As a leading German provider of renewable energy project finance it is our objective to become Germany's most sustainable commercial bank

Commerzbank financials at a glance

Group Q1 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Operating result (€m) 246 250 -277
Net result (€m) 122 -54 -295
CET1 ratio (%)¹ 12.7 13.4 13.2
Total assets (€bn) 503 464 517
RWA €bn) 185 182 184
Leverage ratio fully loaded (%) 4.5 5.1 4.7
Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) 72.7 74.0 81.1
Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) 85.0 77.0 97.4
Net RoE (%) 1.8 -1.0 -4.4
Net RoTE (%) 1.9 -1.1 -4.9
Total capital ratio fully loaded (%)¹ 15.7 16.4 16.1
NPE ratio (in %) 0.9 0.9 0.8
CoR (bps) ² 7 14 27
CoRL (bps) ³ 12 24 47

Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020 28

2) Cost of Risk (CoR) = Risk Result / Exposure at Default 3) Cost of Risk on Loans (CoRL) = Risk Result / Loans and Advances (interim report note (19))

Key figures Commerzbank share

Exceptional revenue items

2019
(€m)
Revenues 2020
(€m)
Revenues

Q1
Hedging & valuation adjustments
-15
-19
PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC)
-34
Hedging & valuation adjustments
PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC)
-160
-13
-173

Q2

Hedging & valuation adjustments
86
PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC)
-18
Insurance based product (CC)
-34
34

Q3

Hedging & valuation adjustments
-74
PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC)
-16
Sale ebase
(PSBC)
103
13

Q4

Hedging & valuation adjustments
47
PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC)
-15
Insurance based product (CC)
-22
11
FY 24 -173

Loan and deposit development

  • › Loan growth in Private and Small Business Customers mainly driven by residential mortgage business in Germany stable deposit base
  • › Lower volumes from mBank due to FX effects increased volumes in PLN
  • › Increased loan volumes in International Corporates and Mittelstand partially offset by lower volumes in Institutionals
  • › Lower deposit volumes in CC reflecting lower international deposits and increased cash use of public sector depositors

Significant NII potential in scenario of rising interest rates

  • › Year 1 effect of ~€550-600m driven by short-end rates due to large stock of overnight (excess) deposits
  • › Thereof ~1/2 stem from leaving the negative interest rate territory
  • › Year 4 effect of ~€950-1,000m driven by higher reinvestment yield of modelled deposits used to refinance longer term loans

Capital markets funding activities

Highlights

  • › Majority of non-preferred senior needs already covered
  • › €3bn issued in Q1 2020 (average term 8 years) thereof:
    • Non-preferred senior: €750m transaction with 7 years maturity and inaugural GBP400m transaction with 5 years maturity
    • Preferred senior: €500m re-opening of the December 2026 (issued November 2019)
    • Covered bonds: €1.25bn benchmark with 10 years maturity

33

Issuance strategy is consistent with new MPE MREL requirement

MREL requirement MREL ratio

  • › In February 2020, Commerzbank AG received a new legally binding MREL requirement calibrated based on data as of 31 December 2017
  • › Resolution approach is a multiple point of entry (MPE) with two separate resolution groups (resolution group A: Commerzbank group without mBank subgroup; resolution group B: mBank subgroup)
  • › The new MREL requirement for Commerzbank (Resolution group A) is to be complied with immediately and is based on the SRB's 2018 MREL policy
  • › The MREL requirement in terms of RWA is 27.66%1
  • › Additionally, Commerzbank AG received a legally binding MREL Subordination requirement of 15.82%2 of RWA
  • › As of 31st December 2019 Commerzbank fulfils both the MREL requirement with a MREL ratio of 30.6% of RWA and the MREL Subordination requirement with a ratio of 25.4% of RWA
  • › Current issuance strategy consistent with the requirement
  • › A new MREL requirement is expected in Q1 2021

  • 1) The legally binding MREL requirement is defined as a percentage of total liabilities and own funds (TLOF) and stands at 12.01% based on data as of 31 December 2017
  • 2) The legally binding MREL subordination requirement stands at 6.87% TLOF
  • 3) Includes amortized amount (regulatory) of Tier 2 instruments with maturity > 1 year
  • 4) According to §46f KWG or Non-Preferred Senior by contract
  • 5) Non-Covered / Non-Preferred deposits; Preferred Senior Unsecured

Capital markets funding expectations 2020 similar to 2019

  • › Funding plan with approx. €10bn was set similar to 2019 funding. However, a dynamic review will incorporate any new developments (e.g. Corona) and refinancing measures of ECB
  • › Continued focus on diversification of funding basis (e.g. GBP400m non-preferred senior)
Bettina Orlopp CFO Frankfurt 13 May 2020 2) Basis IFRS values as of 31 March 2020 35
------------------------------------------------ ---- --------------------------------------- ---- --
  • 1) Commerzbank Group, values based on nominal basis as of 31 March 2020
  • 2) Basis IFRS values as of 31 March 2020
  • 3) Unsecured bonds incl. preferred and non-preferred senior bonds

Regulatory changes decreased Commerzbank's MDA requirement

Rating overview Commerzbank

As of 13 May
2020

Rating event in Q1 2020

Fitch Ratings downgraded the issuer credit rating of Commerzbank by 1 notch to "BBB" following the Corona disruption, the negative rating outlook remains

Rating event in April

S&P Global downgraded the issuer credit rating of Commerzbank by 1 notch to "BBB+" following the expectation that the Corona pandemic and associated lockdown measures will lead to a global economic recession in 2020, the negative rating outlook remains

  • 1) Includes client business (i.e. counterparty for derivatives)
  • 2) Includes corporate and institutional deposits Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020 37

IAS 19: Development of pension obligations

Additional information

  • › Significant increase in the discount rate in Q1 according to market development. Hence, valuation gain due to decrease in pension obligations which more than overcompensated the decreased market value of plan assets (= positive OCI net effect of +€515m QoQ)
  • › The discount rate is derived from a AA rated corporate bond basket yield with average duration of 18 years
  • › The average funding ratio (plan assets vs. pension obligations) of all Group plans is 100%
  • › Since 2013, hedge via plan assets dampened the obligation increase of €1,844m to a cumulated OCI capital effect of -€537m

Net negative impact on CET1 ratio from FX effects

Explanation

  • › Negative impact on capital ratio mainly due to decreasing currency translation reserve for PLN:
    • Major impact from decreasing currency translation reserve for PLN by -€171m, which was not compensated by decreasing Credit Risk RWA from PLN
    • QoQ the EUR weakened by -2.5% against the USD resulting in +€0.6bn higher Credit Risk RWA with compensating effect of +€51m from increase of the currency translation reserve

Residential mortgage business vs. property prices

German residential properties Overall mortgage portfolio

Source: vdpresearch, Commerzbank Research

› Prices of houses and flats, existing stock and newly constructed dwellings, averages

  • › Growing mortgage volume with a very good risk quality:
    • 12/15: EaD €62.6bn RD 12bp
    • 12/16: EaD €66.8bn RD 10bp
    • 12/17: EaD €75.2bn RD 9bp
    • 12/18: EaD €81.0bn RD 9bp
    • 12/19: EaD €86.6bn RD 8bp
    • 03/20: EaD €88.6bn RD 8bp
  • › Rating profile with a share of 91% in investment grade ratings
  • › Vintages of recent years developed more favourably so far and NPEs remain at a low level
  • › Due to risk-oriented selection very low RD
  • › As a consequence of low interest rates, repayment rates remain on a very high level
  • › Average "Beleihungsauslauf" (BLA) in new business of 83% in Q1 2020. German BLA is more conservative than the internationally used LtV definition due to the application of the strict German Pfandbrief law

Risk parameters on very good level, loan decisions remain conservative

Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020

Group equity composition

Capital
Q4 2019
EoP
€bn
Capital
Q1 2020
EoP
€bn
Capital
Q1 2020
Average
€bn
Ratios
Q1 2020
%
Ratio
Q1 2020
%
Common equity tier 1 capital 24.4 24.2 24.3 1 Op. RoCET -4.6% CET1 ratio 13.2%
DTA 0.9 0.7
Minority interests 0.6 0.5
Prudent Valuation 0.2 0.4
IRB shortfall 0.3 0.2
Instruments that are given recognition in AT1 Capital 0.9 0.9
Other regulatory adjustments 0.6 0.9
Tangible equity 27.8 27.8 27.7 1 Op. RoTE -4.0%
Goodwill and other intangible assets 2.7 2.6 2.7
IFRS capital 30.4 30.4 30.3 1
Subscribed capital 1.3 1.3
Capital reserve 17.2 17.2
Retained earnings 9.4 2 10.8 3
Currency translation reserve -0.2 -0.4
Revaluation reserve 0.0 -0.3
Cash flow hedges -0.0 0.0
Consolidated P&L 0.6 -0.3
IFRS capital attributable to Commerzbank shareholders 28.3 28.3 28.2 1 Net RoE -4.4%
Additional equity components 0.9 0.9 0.9 Net RoTE -4.9%
Non-controlling interests 1.3 1.2 1.3

1) Includes consolidated P&L reduced by accrual for dividend where applicable and (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon

Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020 41 2) Excluding consolidated P&L reduced by accrual for dividend where applicable and (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon

3) Excluding consolidated P&L reduced by accrual for (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon

Commerzbank Group

€m Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
FY
2019
Q1
2020
Total clean revenues 2,191 2,096 2,170 2,163 8,619 2,026
Exceptional items -34 34 13 11 24 -173
Total revenues 2,157 2,130 2,183 2,173 8,643 1,853
o/w Net interest income 1,232 1,275 1,260 1,307 5,074 1,321
o/w Net commission income 768 739 763 786 3,056 877
o/w Net fair value result 85 28 15 116 244 -304
o/w Other income 73 87 145 -36 270 -42
o/w Dividend income 1 10 5 19 35 2
o/w Net income from hedge accounting 50 46 36 -27 105 -70
o/w Other financial result -20 31 -20 36 27 13
o/w At equity result 5 2 2 2 10 2
o/w Other net income 37 -2 122 -65 93 12
Risk result -78 -178 -114 -250 -620 -326
Operating expenses 1,567 1,579 1,559 1,608 6,313 1,503
Compulsory contributions 265 63 60 65 453 301
Operating result 246 311 450 250 1,258 -277
Impairments on other intangible assets - - - 28 28 -
Restructuring expenses - - - 101 101 -
Pre-tax result discontinued operations -19 19 -7 -9 -17 44
Pre-tax result Commerzbank Group 227 330 443 112 1,112 -233
Taxes on income 91 20 104 154 369 54
Minority Interests 14 30 43 13 100 8
Consolidated Result attributable to Commerzbank shareholders and investors in additional
equity components
122 280 296 -54 644 -295
Total Assets 503,266 518,052 513,349 463,636 463,636 517,270
o/w Discontinued operations 14,068 13,613 9,347 7,955 7,955 4,752
Average capital employed 23,440 23,818 24,108 24,402 23,940 24,269
RWA credit risk (end of period) 150,964 151,377 154,838 151,588 151,588 153,812
RWA market risk (end of period) 10,418 11,045 11,397 10,847 10,847 11,113
RWA operational risk (end of period) 21,562 22,833 21,859 18,728 18,728 18,178
RWA (end of period) continued operations 182,944 185,256 188,094 181,163 181,163 183,102
RWA (end of period) discontinued operations 2,213 1,541 1,351 602 602 690
RWA (end of period) 185,158 186,797 189,445 181,765 181,765 183,792
Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) 72.7% 74.1% 71.4% 74.0% 73.0% 81.1%
Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) 85.0% 77.1% 74.1% 77.0% 78.3% 97.4%
Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) 4.2% 5.2% 7.5% 4.1% 5.3% -4.6%
Operating return on tangible equity (%) 3.7% 4.7% 6.6% 3.6% 4.7% -4.0%
Return on equity of net result (%) 1.8% 4.0% 4.0% -1.0% 2.2% -4.4%
Net return on tangible equity (%) 1.9% 4.4% 4.4% -1.1% 2.4% -4.9%

Private and Small Business Customers

€m Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
FY
2019
Q1
2020
Total clean revenues 1,221 1,244 1,243 1,176 4,884 1,338
Exceptional items -20 -21 84 -14 30 -21
Total revenues 1,201 1,224 1,327 1,162 4,914 1,317
o/w Net interest income 665 691 686 681 2,723 689
o/w Net commission income 468 461 485 500 1,914 586
o/w Net fair value result 57 48 51 57 213 31
o/w Other income 11 24 105 -76 64 11
o/w Dividend income 1 4 - 5 10 1
o/w Net income from hedge accounting 1 1 1 1 3 1
o/w Other financial result 7 5 11 1 24 6
o/w At equity result 3 - - - 3 -
o/w Other net income -1 14 93 -81 25 3
Risk result -52 -48 -87 -67 -253 -160
Operating expenses 870 873 873 913 3,529 871
Compulsory contributions 125 53 51 55 285 137
Operating result 153 249 316 128 847 150
Total Assets 141,420 144,551 147,036 150,316 150,316 155,278
Liabilities 175,928 180,932 182,362 186,475 186,475 186,673
Average capital employed 5,102 5,248 5,446 5,658 5,361 5,680
RWA credit risk (end of period) 37,292 38,334 40,469 41,109 41,109 40,728
RWA market risk (end of period) 919 946 949 951 951 964
RWA operational risk (end of period) 4,950 5,494 5,038 5,155 5,155 5,583
RWA (end of period) 43,162 44,774 46,457 47,215 47,215 47,275
Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) 72.5% 71.3% 65.8% 78.5% 71.8% 66.1%
Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) 82.9% 75.7% 69.6% 83.3% 77.6% 76.5%
Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) 12.0% 19.0% 23.2% 9.0% 15.8% 10.6%
Operating return on tangible equity (%) 11.7% 18.4% 22.9% 8.9% 15.4% 10.4%

mBank

Part of Segment Private and Small Business Customers

€m Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020
Total clean revenues 274 294 298 255 1,121 305
Exceptional items - -3 -2 - -5 -7
Total revenues 274 291 296 255 1,116 299
o/w Net interest income 180 197 210 204 791 214
o/w Net commission income 55 53 59 62 229 64
o/w Net fair value result 45 44 49 48 185 27
o/w Other income -5 -3 -22 -59 -88 -6
o/w Dividend income - 1 - - 1 -
o/w Net income from hedge accounting 1 1 1 1 3 1
o/w Other financial result 4 - 3 1 7 -2
o/w At equity result - - - - - -
o/w Other net income -9 -4 -25 -60 -98 -5
Risk result -30 -48 -50 -39 -168 -83
Operating expenses 119 125 125 125 494 126
Compulsory contributions 75 29 31 32 166 75
Operating result 50 89 89 60 289 15
Total Assets 34,602 35,732 36,055 37,254 37,254 37,823
Liabilities 33,460 34,297 34,434 35,608 35,608 36,403
Average capital employed 2,156 2,240 2,322 2,325 2,261 2,303
RWA credit risk (end of period) 16,209 17,213 17,094 17,533 17,533 17,144
RWA market risk (end of period) 404 477 428 431 431 426
RWA operational risk (end of period) 1,511 1,697 1,443 1,320 1,320 1,384
RWA (end of period) 18,124 19,388 18,965 19,283 19,283 18,954
Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) 43.5% 43.0% 42.3% 48.8% 44.2% 42.1%
Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) 70.7% 52.9% 52.7% 61.2% 59.1% 67.3%
Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) 9.3% 15.9% 15.4% 10.3% 12.8% 2.6%
Operating return on tangible equity (%) 8.9% 15.3% 15.4% 10.4% 12.5% 2.6%

Corporate Clients

€m Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
FY
2019
Q1
2020
Total clean revenues 869 799 823 835 3,326 825
Exceptional items -8 -23 -42 -13 -86 -78
Total revenues 860 776 781 823 3,240 747
o/w Net interest income 467 453 460 480 1,860 445
o/w Net commission income 307 286 286 296 1,176 299
o/w Net fair value result 75 22 18 72 187 -41
o/w Other income 11 15 17 -26 17 43
o/w Dividend income 1 3 4 4 11 -
o/w Net income from hedge accounting 6 6 9 -5 16 6
o/w Other financial result - 2 -2 -2 -2 -3
o/w At equity result 2 2 2 2 8 2
o/w Other net income 3 1 4 -24 -16 38
Risk result -28 -127 -31 -156 -342 -166
Operating expenses 620 619 596 619 2,455 591
Compulsory contributions 93 8 8 9 118 103
Operating result 119 21 146 39 325 -114
Impairments on other intangible assets - - - 28 28 -
Pre-tax result discontinued operations -19 19 -7 -9 -17 44
Pre-tax result (total) 100 41 139 2 281 -70
Total Assets 193,853 200,729 200,125 178,844 178,844 196,210
o/w Discontinued operations 14,068 13,613 9,347 7,955 7,955 4,752
Liabilities 196,809 200,149 202,929 172,460 172,460 192,011
o/w Discontinued operations 12,774 12,832 11,061 8,528 8,528 5,364
Average capital employed 11,589 12,051 12,130 11,965 11,895 11,544
RWA credit risk (end of period) 81,855 82,504 85,199 81,915 81,915 83,655
RWA market risk (end of period) 4,855 4,914 5,359 4,995 4,995 5,883
RWA operational risk (end of period) 13,052 13,554 11,223 8,270 8,270 7,644
RWA (end of period) continued operations 99,762 100,973 101,781 95,181 95,181 97,182
RWA (end of period) discontinued operations 2,213 1,541 1,351 602 602 690
Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) 72.1% 79.8% 76.3% 75.2% 75.8% 79.2%
Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) 82.9% 80.9% 77.4% 76.3% 79.4% 93.0%
Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) 4.1% 0.7% 4.8% 1.3% 2.7% -4.0%
Operating return on tangible equity (%) 3.9% 0.7% 4.6% 1.2% 2.6% -3.8%

Asset & Capital Recovery

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1
€m 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020
Total clean revenues 14 -11 - - 3 -
Exceptional items -3 78 - - 75 -
Total revenues 11 68 - - 79 -
o/w
Net interest income
-15 -8 - - -23 -
o/w
Net commission income
- - - - - -
o/w
Net fair value result
51 60 - - 111 -
o/w
Other income
-25 16 - - -9 -
o/w
Dividend income
- - - - - -
o/w
Net income from hedge accounting
-3 13 - - 10 -
o/w
Other financial result
-27 8 - - -19 -
o/w
At equity result
- - - - - -
o/w
Other net income
5 -5 - - - -
Risk result -1 -23 - - -24 -
Operating expenses 9 7 - - 15 -
Compulsory contributions 9 - - - 9 -
Operating result -7 38 - - 31 -
Total Assets 11,155 11,226 - - - -
o/w
Assets excl repos, collaterals and trading assets
3,763 4,019 - - - -
Liabilities 9,880 10,130 - - - -
Exposure at default 4,702 4,457 - - - -
RWA credit risk (end of period) 7,268 7,127 - - - -
RWA market risk (end of period) 1,819 2,267 - - - -
RWA operational risk (end of period) 1,421 1,401 - - - -
RWA (end of period) 10,508 10,795 - - - -

Others & Consolidation

€m Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
FY
2019
Q1
2020
Total clean revenues 87 63 104 151 405 -138
Exceptional items -2 - -29 37 5 -74
Total revenues 85 63 74 188 410 -212
o/w
Net interest income
115 139 114 146 514 186
o/w
Net commission income
-8 -8 -8 -11 -35 -9
o/w
Net fair value result
-98 -101 -54 -13 -267 -294
o/w
Other income
76 33 23 66 198 -96
o/w
Dividend income
- 3 - 11 15 -
o/w
Net income from hedge accounting
46 26 27 -23 76 -77
o/w
Other financial result
- 15 -29 37 23 10
o/w
At equity result
- - - - - -
o/w
Other net income
30 -11 25 41 84 -29
Risk result 2 21 4 -27 - -
Operating expenses 68 80 89 77 314 41
Compulsory contributions 38 1 1 1 41 60
Operating result -19 2 -12 83 55 -313
Restructuring expenses - - - 101 101 -
Pre-tax profit continued operations -19 2 -12 -18 -47 -313
Total Assets 156,839 161,547 166,188 134,476 134,476 165,782
Liabilities 120,650 126,841 128,058 104,701 104,701 138,586
Average capital employed 5,126 4,912 4,669 5,246 5,064 7,046
RWA credit risk (end of period) 24,549 23,412 29,170 28,564 28,564 29,429
RWA market risk (end of period) 2,824 2,918 5,088 4,900 4,900 4,265
RWA operational risk (end of period) 2,139 2,385 5,597 5,303 5,303 4,951
RWA (end of period) 29,512 28,715 39,856 38,768 38,768 38,644

Commerzbank Group

Exceptional Revenue Items

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1
€m 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020
Exceptional Revenue Items -34 34 13 11 24 -173
o/w Net interest income -22 -16 -17 -17 -72 -2
o/w Net fair value result 18 30 -83 32 -4 -160
o/w Other income -30 21 113 -4 100 -11
o/w FVA, CVA / DVA, AT1 FX effect¹, Other former ACR valuations (NII, NFVR) -15 86 -74 47 45 -160
PSBC -20 -21 84 -14 30 -21
o/w Net interest income -19 -18 -16 -15 -67 -13
o/w Net fair value result -1 -3 -3 1 -6 -7
o/w Other income - - 103 - 103 -
o/w FVA, CVA / DVA (NII, NFVR) -1 -3 -3 1 -6 -7
CC -8 -23 -42 -13 -86 -78
o/w Net interest income -3 -3 -2 -4 -13 -
o/w Net fair value result -5 -20 -40 -9 -75 -78
o/w Other income - - - 1 1 -
o/w FVA, CVA / DVA (NII, NFVR) -8 11 -42 9 -30 -78
ACR -3 78 - - 75 -
o/w Net interest income - 4 - - 4 -
o/w Net fair value result 27 53 - - 80 -
o/w Other income -30 21 - - -9 -
o/w FVA, CVA / DVA, Other former ACR valuations (NII, NFVR) -3 78 - - 75 -
O&C -2 - -29 37 5 -74
o/w Net interest income - - 1 2 4 11
o/w Net fair value result -2 - -41 40 -3 -74
o/w Other income - - 10 -5 4 -11
o/w FVA, CVA / DVA, AT1 FX effect,¹ Other former ACR valuations (NII, NFVR) -2 - -29 37 5 -74

Description of Exceptional Revenue Items

2019 €m €m 2020 €m
Q1 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) -19 Q4 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) -15 Q1 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) -13
Q2 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) -18 Q4 Insurance-based product (CC) -22
Q2 Insurance-based product (CC) -34
Q3 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) -16
Q3 Sale of ebase (PSBC) 103

Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020 48

Glossary – Key Ratios

Key Ratio Abbreviation Calculated for Numerator Denominator
Group Private and Small Business
Customers and Corporate
Clients
Others & Consolidation
Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory
contributions) (%)
CIR (excl. compulsory
contributions) (%)
Group as well as segments
PSBC and CC
Operating expenses Total revenues Total revenues n/a
Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory
contributions) (%)
CIR (incl. compulsory
contributions) (%)
Group as well as segments
PSBC and CC
Operating expenses and
compulsory contributions
Total revenues Total revenues n/a
Operating return on CET1 (%) Op. RoCET (%) Group and segments (excl.
O&C)
Operating profit Average CET1¹ 12% ² of the average RWAs
(YTD: PSBC €47.3bn, CC
€96.7bn)
n/a
(note: O&C contains the
reconciliation to Group CET1)
Operating return on tangible equity
(%)
Op. RoTE (%) Group and segments (excl.
O&C)
Operating profit Average IFRS capital after
deduction of goodwill and other
intangible assets ¹
12% ² of the average RWAs plus
average regulatory capital
deductions (excluding goodwill
and other intangible assets)
(YTD: PSBC €0.1bn, CC €0.6bn)
n/a
(note: O&C contains the
reconciliation to Group tangible
equity)
Return on equity of net result (%) Net RoE (%) Group Consolidated Result attributable
to Commerzbank shareholders
and investors in additional equity
components after deduction of
potential (fully discretionary) AT1
coupon
Average IFRS capital without
non-controlling interests and
without additional equity
components ¹
n/a n/a
Net return on tangible equity (%) Net RoTE (%) Group Consolidated Result attributable
to Commerzbank shareholders
and investors in additional equity
components after deduction of
potential (fully discretionary) AT1
coupon
Average IFRS capital without
non-controlling interests and
without additional equity
components after deduction of
goodwill and other intangible
assets ¹
n/a n/a
Key Parameter Calculated for Calculation
Total clean revenues Group and segments Total revenues excluding exceptional revenue items
Underlying Operating Performance Group and segments Operating result excluding exceptional revenue items and compulsory contributions
  • Bettina Orlopp | CFO | Frankfurt | 13 May 2020 49 1) Includes consolidated P&L reduced by dividend accrual
    • 2) Charge rate reflects current regulatory and market standard

For more information, please contact Commerzbank's IR team

Christoph Wortig (Head of Investor Relations) P: +49 69 136 52668 M: [email protected]

Mail: [email protected] www.ir.commerzbank.com

Ansgar Herkert (Head of IR Communications) P: +49 69 136 44083 M: [email protected]

Investors and Financial Analysts

Michael H. Klein

P: +49 69 136 24522 M: [email protected]

Jutta Madjlessi

P: +49 69 136 28696 M: [email protected]

Dirk Bartsch (Head of Strategic IR / Rating Agency Relations / ESG)

Financial calendar

13 May 05 Aug 05 Nov
2020
Annual General Meeting Q2 2020 results Q3 2020 results

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include, inter alia, statements about Commerzbank's beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them. These statements are based on plans, estimates, projections and targets as they are currently available to the management of Commerzbank. Forward-looking statements therefore speak only as of the date they are made, and Commerzbank undertakes no obligation to update any of them in light of new information or future events. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could therefore cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, among others, the conditions in the financial markets in Germany, in Europe, in the United States and elsewhere from which Commerzbank derives a substantial portion of its revenues and in which it hold a substantial portion of its assets, the development of asset prices and market volatility, potential defaults of borrowers or trading counterparties, the implementation of its strategic initiatives and the reliability of its risk management policies.

In addition, this presentation contains financial and other information which has been derived from publicly available information disclosed by persons other than Commerzbank ("external data"). In particular, external data has been derived from industry and customer-related data and other calculations taken or derived from industry reports published by third parties, market research reports and commercial publications. Commercial publications generally state that the information they contain has originated from sources assumed to be reliable, but that the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed and that the calculations contained therein are based on a series of assumptions. The external data has not been independently verified by Commerzbank. Therefore, Commerzbank cannot assume any responsibility for the accuracy of the external data taken or derived from public sources.

Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded from https://www.commerzbank.de/en/hauptnavigation/aktionaere/investor_relations.html